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Retrospective Study
Copyright ©The Author(s) 2025.
World J Gastroenterol. Nov 7, 2025; 31(41): 111256
Published online Nov 7, 2025. doi: 10.3748/wjg.v31.i41.111256
Table 1 Demographics and clinical characteristics of the derivation and validation cohorts, n (%)
Variables
Derivation cohort (n = 190)
Validation cohort (n = 87)
P value
Year of diagnosis2011-20192020-2021-
Female gender171 (90.0)74 (85.1)0.232
Age at diagnosis (years)51 (45-58)53 (47-61)0.127
UDCA-naïve126 (66.3)54 (62.1)0.492
Comorbidity
Sjogren’s syndrome8 (4.2)5 (5.7)0.575
Hashimoto’s thyroiditis38 (20.0)21 (24.1)0.435
Diabetes22 (11.6)13 (14.9)0.434
Hypertension34 (17.9)20 (23.0)0.321
Total bilirubin (mg/dL)0.9 (0.6-1.4)0.9 (0.6-1.4)0.944
Albumin (g/dL)4.1 (3.7-4.4)4.1 (3.6-4.5)0.947
ALT (× ULN)1.0 (0.5-1.8)0.7 (0.4-1.6)0.086
AST (× ULN)1.3 (0.8-2.1)1.1 (0.7-1.8)0.121
ALP (× ULN)1.4 (0.8-2.3)1.2 (0.7-1.8)0.038
GGT (× ULN)2.7 (1.1-5.9)2.6 (1.1-2.8)0.627
IgG (g/L)15.2 (12.6-18.6)14.7 (12.0-17.9)0.396
IgM (g/L)3.15 (1.93-4.45)2.65 (1.42-4.19)0.103
Platelet count (× 109/L)187 (121-258)190 (127-253)0.900
ANA+113 (59.5)54 (62.1)0.682
AMA/AMA-M2+117 (61.6)53 (60.9)0.917
Anti-gp210+ 55 (33.3)131 (35.6)0.714
Anti-sp100+ 25 (15.2)111 (12.6)0.589
Hyaluronic acid (ng/mL)90.0 (66.4-126.1)84.1 (49.4-144.4)0.759
Serum fibrotic markers
FIB-41.97 (1.23-4.30)1.98 (1.13-4.61)0.889
APRI0.73 (0.44-1.44)0.69 (0.29-1.33)0.373
AAR1.07 (0.79-1.44)1.10 (0.78-1.47)0.750
GPR2.09 (0.94-4.24)2.07 (0.62-4.49)0.846
MRS4.16 (3.62-4.80)4.25 (3.65-4.96)0.455
Ludwig stage0.060
Stage I60 (31.6)29 (33.3)
Stage II52 (27.4)14 (16.1)
Stage III19 (10.0)17 (19.5)
Stage IV59 (31.0)27 (31.0)
LSM (kPa)10.0 (6.6-18.6)10.2 (6.2-24.0)0.587
Mix-Max2.8-75.03.2-75.0
IQR/Median0.15 (0.11-0.20)0.16 (0.11-0.23)0.124
IQR/Median0.647
Very reliable (≤ 0.1)44 (23.2)18 (20.7)
Reliable (0.1-0.3)146 (76.8)69 (79.3)
Poorly reliable (> 0.3)0 (0)0 (0)
BMI (kg/m2)22.9 (20.3-25.2)22.6 (20.5-23.4)0.239
Table 2 Demographics and clinical characteristics at diagnosis of the derivation and validation cohorts according to Ludwig Stage, n (%)

Derivation cohort
Validation cohort
Variables
Early stage (n = 112)
Advanced stage (n = 78)
P value
Early stage (n = 43)
Advanced stage (n = 44)
P value
Female99 (88.4)72 (92.3)0.37637 (86.0)37 (84.1)0.798
Age at diagnosis (years)48 (44-55)56 (49-61)< 0.00151 (46-59)54 (50-64)0.049
UDCA-naïve,82 (73.2)44 (56.4)0.01628(65.1)26 (59.1)0.563
Comorbidity
Sjogren’s syndrome5 (4.5)3 (3.8)1.0002 (4.7)3 (6.8)1.000
Hashimoto’s thyroiditis21 (18.8)17 (21.8)0.60610 (23.3)11 (25.0)0.849
Diabetes8 (7.1)14 (17.9)0.0226 (14.0)7 (15.9)0.798
Hypertension16 (14.3)18 (23.1)0.1209 (20.9)11 (25.0)0.652
Total bilirubin (mg/dL)0.8 (0.6-1.2)1.1 (0.8-2.1)< 0.0010.7 (0.6-0.9)1.3 (0.8-2.4)< 0.001
Albumin (g/dL)4.2 (4.0-4.5)3.7 (3.4-4.2)< 0.0014.4 (4.1-4.7)3.8 (3.2-4.0)< 0.001
ALT (× ULN)1.1 (0.6-1.9)0.8 (0.5-1.6)0.1180.6 (0.4-1.4)0.9 (0.5-1.6)0.209
AST (× ULN)1.2 (0.8-1.9)1.4 (0.9-2.9)0.0350.7 (0.5-1.5)1.5 (0.9-2.5)< 0.001
ALP (× ULN)1.4 (0.8-2.2)1.3 (0.8-2.4)0.7610.8 (0.6-1.3)1.6 (0.9-2.0)0.002
GGT (× ULN)3.1 (1.4-5.7)2.1 (0.9-6.2)0.4841.9 (0.7-3.6)3.4 (1.7-6.8)0.012
IgG (g/L)14.5 (12.3-16.9)17.2 (13.7-22.2)< 0.00112.6 (11.3-15.3)16.8 (13.9-23.9)< 0.001
IgM (g/L)3.19 (2.07-4.63)3.01 (1.66-4.20)0.7342.2 (1.3-3.8)2.9 (1.7-5.3)0.094
Platelet count (× 109/L)223 (173-285)121 (88-165)< 0.001242 (195-293)130 (93-189)< 0.001
ANA61 (54.5)52 (66.7)0.09224 (55.8)30 (68.2)0.235
AMA/AMA-M268 (60.7)49 (62.8)0.76923 (53.5)30 (68.2)0.160
Anti-gp210 28 (29.8)127 (38.0)20.26612 (27.9)19 (43.2)0.137
Anti-sp10016 (17.0)19 (12.7)20.4414 (9.3)7 (15.9)0.354
Hyaluronic acid (ng/mL)82.6 (62.5-122.1)102.5 (78.5-132.1)0.09560.4 (31.0-87.4)107.3 (77.2-276.6)0.008
Serum fibrotic markers
FIB-41.49 (1.06-2.13)4.17 (2.49-6.88)< 0.0011.20 (0.78-1.81)4.27 (2.49-6.80)< 0.001
APRI0.59 (0.33-0.91)1.25 (0.69-2.33)< 0.0010.30 (0.18-0.68)1.23 (0.70-2.08)< 0.001
AAR0.91 (0.70-1.15)1.29 (1.05-1.91)< 0.0010.90 (0.70-1.14)1.32 (0.89-1.86)< 0.001
GPR1.98 (0.75-3.38)2.28 (1.16-5.74)0.0191.02 (0.35-2.65)3.59 (1.72-6.40)< 0.001
MRS3.82 (3.39-4.24)4.81 (4.19-5.55)< 0.0013.71 (3.44-4.14)4.90 (4.38-5.83)< 0.001
LSM (kPa)7.0 (5.7-9.1)21.3 (14.1-30.8)< 0.0016.2 (5.1-7.8)23.2 (16.5-43.6)< 0.001
BMI (kg/m2)22.9 (20.3-25.2)22.0 (20.3-25.3)0.65322.9 (22.6-24.7)21.4 (19.5-23.3)0.008
Table 3 Ludwig stage stratified by risk class prediction of fibrosis using dual cut-offs of liver stiffness measurement in the derivation and validation cohorts, n (%)

Ludwig stage
Early stage (LSM ≤ 10)
Grey area (10 < LSM ≤ 14.5)
Advanced stage (LSM > 14.5)
Total
Derivation cohortLudwig I55 (57.3)4 (12.9)1 (1.6)60 (31.6)
Ludwig II34 (35.4)14 (45.2)4 (6.3)52 (27.4)
Ludwig III2 (2.1)4 (12.9)13 (20.6)19 (10.0)
Ludwig IV5 (5.2)9 (29.0)45 (71.4)59 (31.1)
Total963163190
Validation cohortLudwig I29 (69.0)0 (0)0 (0)29 (33.3)
Ludwig II8 (19.0)4 (44.4)2 (5.6)14 (16.1)
Ludwig III4 (9.5)3 (33.3)10 (27.8)17 (19.5)
Ludwig IV1 (2.4)2 (22.2)24 (66.7)27 (31.0)
Total4293687