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Retrospective Study
Copyright ©The Author(s) 2025. Published by Baishideng Publishing Group Inc. All rights reserved.
World J Gastroenterol. Sep 28, 2025; 31(36): 111293
Published online Sep 28, 2025. doi: 10.3748/wjg.v31.i36.111293
Predicting pathological complete response to chemoradiotherapy using artificial intelligence-based magnetic resonance imaging radiomics in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma
Atsushi Hirata, Koichi Hayano, Toru Tochigi, Yoshihiro Kurata, Tadashi Shiraishi, Nobufumi Sekino, Akira Nakano, Yasunori Matsumoto, Takeshi Toyozumi, Masaya Uesato, Gaku Ohira
Atsushi Hirata, Koichi Hayano, Toru Tochigi, Yoshihiro Kurata, Tadashi Shiraishi, Nobufumi Sekino, Akira Nakano, Yasunori Matsumoto, Takeshi Toyozumi, Masaya Uesato, Gaku Ohira, Department of Frontier Surgery, Chiba University Graduate School of Medicine, Chiba 260-8677, Japan
Author contributions: Hirata A designed and conducted the study, performed the data analysis, and wrote the original manuscript; Hayano K contributed to the conceptualization and methodology, supervised the project, and reviewed and edited the manuscript; Ohira G, Tochigi T, and Kurata Y provided supervision and contributed to the conceptualization; Shiraishi T, Sekino N, Nakano A, Matsumoto Y, Toyozumi T, and Uesato M provided clinical advice; All authors have read and approve the final manuscript.
Institutional review board statement: The Institutional Review Board of Chiba University Graduate School of Medicine provided approval for our retrospective study (No. 3032).
Informed consent statement: Patients were not required to give informed consent to the study because the analysis used anonymous clinical data that were obtained after each patient agreed to treatment by written consent.
Conflict-of-interest statement: The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
Data sharing statement: Technical appendix, statistical code, and dataset available from the corresponding author at hayatin1973@yahoo.co.jp.
Open Access: This article is an open-access article that was selected by an in-house editor and fully peer-reviewed by external reviewers. It is distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited and the use is non-commercial. See: https://creativecommons.org/Licenses/by-nc/4.0/
Corresponding author: Koichi Hayano, MD, PhD, FACS, Department of Frontier Surgery, Chiba University Graduate School of Medicine, 1-8-1 Inohana, Chuo-ku, Chiba 260-8677, Japan. hayatin1973@yahoo.co.jp
Received: June 27, 2025
Revised: July 28, 2025
Accepted: August 21, 2025
Published online: September 28, 2025
Processing time: 84 Days and 4.9 Hours
Abstract
BACKGROUND

Advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) has an extremely poor prognosis. Preoperative chemoradiotherapy (CRT) can significantly prolong survival, especially in those who achieve pathological complete response (pCR). However, the pretherapeutic prediction of pCR remains challenging.

AIM

To predict pCR and survival in ESCC patients undergoing CRT using an artificial intelligence (AI)-based diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (DWI-MRI) radiomics model.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed 70 patients with ESCC who underwent curative surgery following CRT. For each patient, pre-treatment tumors were semi-automatically segmented in three dimensions from DWI-MRI images (b = 0, 1000 second/mm²), and a total of 76 radiomics features were extracted from each segmented tumor. Using these features as explanatory variables and pCR as the objective variable, machine learning models for predicting pCR were developed using AutoGluon, an automated machine learning library, and validated by stratified double cross-validation.

RESULTS

pCR was achieved in 15 patients (21.4%). Apparent diffusion coefficient skewness demonstrated the highest predictive performance [area under the curve (AUC) = 0.77]. Gray-level co-occurrence matrix (GLCM) entropy (b = 1000 second/mm²) was an independent prognostic factor for relapse-free survival (RFS) (hazard ratio = 0.32, P = 0.009). In Kaplan-Meier analysis, patients with high GLCM entropy showed significantly better RFS (P < 0.001, log-rank). The best-performing machine learning model achieved an AUC of 0.85. The predicted pCR-positive group showed significantly better RFS than the predicted pCR-negative group (P = 0.007, log-rank).

CONCLUSION

AI-based radiomics analysis of DWI-MRI images in ESCC has the potential to accurately predict the effect of CRT before treatment and contribute to constructing optimal treatment strategies.

Keywords: Esophageal cancer; Diffusion weighted imaging; Chemoradiation therapy; Radiomics; Machine learning

Core Tip: Accurately predicting pathological complete response (pCR) to chemoradiotherapy in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma remains a critical clinical challenge. This study introduces a novel artificial intelligence-based model leveraging radiomics features from pre-treatment diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging. By integrating semi-automated three dimensions tumor segmentation with an automated machine learning framework, our model demonstrated high predictive accuracy for pCR (area under the curve = 0.85) and successfully stratified patients into distinct prognostic groups based on relapse-free survival. This non-invasive biomarker is a promising tool for constructing optimal treatment strategies, thereby advancing personalized medicine and significantly improving patient outcomes.