Retrospective Study
Copyright ©The Author(s) 2022. Published by Baishideng Publishing Group Inc. All rights reserved.
World J Clin Cases. May 16, 2022; 10(14): 4404-4413
Published online May 16, 2022. doi: 10.12998/wjcc.v10.i14.4404
Pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality patterns in 2006-2015 and prediction of the epidemiological trend to 2025 in China
Min-Yue Yin, Li-Ting Xi, Lu Liu, Jin-Zhou Zhu, Li-Juan Qian, Chun-Fang Xu
Min-Yue Yin, Li-Ting Xi, Lu Liu, Jin-Zhou Zhu, Li-Juan Qian, Chun-Fang Xu, Department of Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, Suzhou 215006, Jiangsu Province, China
Author contributions: Yin MY and Xi LT contributed equally to the study, including the study design, data acquisition and analysis and manuscript writing; Liu L and Qian LJ participated in the above processes as assistants; Zhu JZ and Xu CF contributed to making an initial modification and preparing the final revision, respectively.
Supported by Primary Research & Social Development Plan of Jiangsu Province, No. BE2018659; and the Youth Project of National Natural Science Foundation of China, No. 82000540.
Institutional review board statement: The study was reviewed and approved by the First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University Institutional Review Board.
Informed consent statement: Patients were not required to give informed consent to the study because the analysis used anonymous clinical data that were obtained after each patient agreed to treatment by written consent.
Conflict-of-interest statement: In terms of conflict of interest, we have nothing to disclose. All authors have reviewed the final version of the manuscript and approve it for review.
Data sharing statement: No additional data are available.
Open-Access: This article is an open-access article that was selected by an in-house editor and fully peer-reviewed by external reviewers. It is distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited and the use is non-commercial. See: https://creativecommons.org/Licenses/by-nc/4.0/
Corresponding author: Chun-Fang Xu, MD, Professor, Department of Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, No. 188 Shi-Zi Road, Suzhou 215006, Jiangsu Province, China. xcf1903@163.com
Received: July 31, 2021
Peer-review started: July 31, 2021
First decision: September 5, 2021
Revised: September 9, 2021
Accepted: March 25, 2022
Article in press: March 25, 2022
Published online: May 16, 2022
Processing time: 285 Days and 20.8 Hours
Abstract
BACKGROUND

Due to dietary patterns, the aging population, and other high-risk factors, the occurrence of pancreatic cancer (PC) has been rapidly increasing in China.

AIM

To present the epidemiological trends of PC in China over the past decade and the estimated trend in 2025 and to compare the international differences in PC morbidity and mortality.

METHODS

This study used a series of nationally representative data from the National Central Cancer Registry of China (NCCR), the International Agency for Research on Cancer and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation databases. Age-standardized data of the PC incidence and mortality from 2006 to 2015 in China were extracted from the NCCR database. Linear regression models were used to estimate the incidence and mortality rates of PC in 2025.

RESULTS

The age-standardized rates of PC in China increased from 3.65 per 100000 in 2006 to 4.31 per 100000 in 2015 and were estimated to reach up to 5.52 per 100000 in 2025. The mortality went from 3.35 per 100000 in 2006 to 3.78 per 100000 in 2015, estimated to reach up to 4.6 per 100000 in 2025. The number of new cases and deaths was low before 45 years and the peak age of onset was 85-89 years. The incidence and mortality rates in men were higher than those in women regardless of the region in China. In addition, the incidence and mortality rates in China were higher than the average level around the world. Likewise, disability-adjusted life years attributed to PC in China were 197.22 years per 100000, above the average level around the world.

CONCLUSION

This study presented an increasing trend of PC in China and differences in morbidity, mortality and disability-adjusted life years between Chinese and global populations. Efforts need to be made to decrease the PC incidence and improve patient outcomes.

Keywords: Pancreatic cancer; China; Epidemiology; Incidence; Mortality

Core Tip: The past decades witnessed a remarkable increase in pancreatic cancer (PC) incidence and mortality globally. We present the epidemiological status of PC in China from 2006 to 2015 by a series of nationally representative data. We describe the differences in PC distributions by age and regions. We analyzed comparisons between China and other countries to inspire the prevention and control of PC in China.