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Retrospective Cohort Study
Copyright ©The Author(s) 2025. Published by Baishideng Publishing Group Inc. All rights reserved.
World J Virol. Sep 25, 2025; 14(3): 107008
Published online Sep 25, 2025. doi: 10.5501/wjv.v14.i3.107008
Predictors of sustained human immunodeficiency virus viral-load suppression before and after the adoption of Treat All policy in Rwanda
Hafidha Bakari Mhando, Jackson Sebeza, Haji M Ally, Hassan F Fussi, Lynn Moshi, Rahma Musoke, Mariam S Mbwana, Maximillian F Karia, Leticia F Karia, Taylor Lascko, Habib O Ramadhani, Gallican Rwibasira
Hafidha Bakari Mhando, Department of Literature, Communication and Publishing, University of Dar es Salaam, Dar es Salaam 16103, Tanzania
Jackson Sebeza, School of Public Health, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Rwanda, Kigali 3286, Rwanda
Haji M Ally, Department of Medicine, Kilimanjaro Christian Medical Center, Moshi 25116, Kilimanjaro, Tanzania
Hassan F Fussi, Department of Medicine, District Hospital, Dar es Salaam 15103, Tanzania
Lynn Moshi, Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Aga Khan Hospital, Dar es Salaam 14112, Tanzania
Rahma Musoke, Department of Research, Water Mission, Dar es Salaam 14112, Tanzania
Mariam S Mbwana, Department of Medicine, Primary Health Care Institute, Iringa 51108, Tanzania
Maximillian F Karia, Department of Research, The Greenfield School at Wilson, North Carolina, Wilson, NC 27893, United States
Leticia F Karia, Department of Research, Appalachian State University, Boone, NC 28608, United States
Taylor Lascko, Global Health, Center for International Health, Education, and Biosecurity, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD 21201, United States
Taylor Lascko, Habib O Ramadhani, Department of Medicine, Institute of Human Virology, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD 21201, United States
Gallican Rwibasira, HIV Division, Rwanda Biomedical Center, Institute of HIV Disease Prevention and Control, Kigali 7162, Rwanda
Co-first authors: Hafidha Bakari Mhando and Jackson Sebeza.
Co-corresponding authors: Hafidha Bakari Mhando and Habib O Ramadhani.
Author contributions: Bakari Mhando H and Sebeza J designed the study, they contributed equally to this article and are the co-first authors of this manuscript; Sebeza J was responsible for overall data collection; Ramadhani HO and Fussi HF were responsible for developing the methodology; Ally HM and Moshi L participated in the formal analysis and investigation; Bakari Mhando H wrote the original draft; Bakari Mhando H, Sebeza J, Ramadhani HO, Fussi HF, Ally HM, Moshi L, Musoke R, Karia MF, Karia LF, Lascko T, Mbwana MS, and Rwibasira G participated in the review and editing; Ramadhani HO and Bakari Mhando H contributed equally to this article, they are the co-corresponding authors of this manuscript; all authors thoroughly reviewed and endorsed the final manuscript.
Institutional review board statement: This study was approved by the Rwanda National Ethics Committee, approval No. 99/RNEC/20222.
Informed consent statement: This was a retrospective review of routinely collected clinical data. No consent was sought.
Conflict-of-interest statement: The authors report no relevant conflicts of interest for this article.
STROBE statement: The authors have read the STROBE Statement-checklist of items, and the manuscript was prepared and revised according to the STROBE Statement-checklist of items.
Data sharing statement: Consent to share data was not obtained but the presented data were anonymized, and the risk of identification is low.
Open Access: This article is an open-access article that was selected by an in-house editor and fully peer-reviewed by external reviewers. It is distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited and the use is non-commercial. See: https://creativecommons.org/Licenses/by-nc/4.0/
Corresponding author: Hafidha Bakari Mhando, Lecturer, Department of Literature, Communication and Publishing, University of Dar es Salaam, 206 Heritage bld, Ubungo, Dar es Salaam 16103, Tanzania. fidhat5@gmail.com
Received: March 13, 2025
Revised: April 18, 2025
Accepted: June 16, 2025
Published online: September 25, 2025
Processing time: 196 Days and 18.2 Hours
Abstract
BACKGROUND

Sustained viral load (VL) suppression is an important indicator of successful treatment among people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV).

AIM

To assess trends of different VL outcomes before and after adoption of the Treat All policy among people living with HIV in Rwanda.

METHODS

Between 2014 and 2017, VL suppression [VL suppression (VLS) < 200 copies/mL] was measured among people living with HIV from 28 healthcare facilities in Rwanda. Participant VL was measured at 6 months, 18 months, and 30 months. The unit of analysis was visit-pair, with subjects across four visit-pair categories: (1) Sustained VL suppression (VL < 200 copies/mL at two consecutive visits); (2) Persistent viremia (VL ≥ 200 copies/mL at two consecutive visits); (3) Viral rebound (VL < 200 copies/mL at prior visit only); and (4) Newly suppressed (VL < 200 copies/mL at subsequent visit only). Poisson regression models with generalized estimating equations were used to estimate adjusted incidence risk ratio (aIRR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for factors associated with sustained VLS. To handle missing data, multiple imputations was performed.

RESULTS

A total of 634 participants contributed 973 visit-pairs (295 single pairs and 339 double pairs). The median age was 37 years (interquartile range: 32-43 years). The incidence rates of sustained VLS, persistent viremia, viral rebound, and new suppression were 85.2%, 4.3%, 4.6%, and 5.7%, respectively. Young individuals aged 18-24 years had higher incidence of viral rebound compared to those 25 years or older (14.8% vs 4.3%; P = 0.011). Of the visit-pairs that had sustained VLS during the first two visits (49.8%; n = 485), 56.7% exhibited sustained VLS throughout follow-up. Compared to having no education, having at least primary education was associated with an increased likelihood of sustained VLS (aIRR = 1.09; 95%CI: 1.01-1.17). Those who presented with advanced HIV disease at baseline had a 12% reduced likelihood of sustained VLS (aIRR = 0.88; 95%CI: 0.79-0.99). Achieving sustained VLS did not differ before or after adoption of the Treat All policy. When the analysis was repeated on imputed datasets, similar results were found.

CONCLUSION

Although most people living with HIV have sustained VLS in Rwanda, individuals without formal education, those presenting with advanced HIV, and younger individuals were lagging on multiple outcomes. Interventions tailored to these individuals would improve treatment outcomes to achieve epidemic control.

Keywords: Sustained viral load suppression; Viremia; Viral rebound; Newly suppressed; Treat all policy; Rwanda

Core Tip: There is limited data on longitudinal, sustained viral load suppression, a critical component of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) care among people living with HIV in Rwanda. This cohort study analyzed 634 participants with 973 visit-pairs between 2017 and 2020. Nearly 85% of the visit-pairs exhibited sustained viral load suppression. The incidence rate of sustained viral load suppression was significantly lower among those with no education and those who presented with advanced HIV disease. Young participants were more likely to present with viral load rebound. Among people living with HIV in Rwanda, being young, having no education, and presenting with advanced HIV disease were associated with poor HIV treatment outcomes.