Xu XJ, Zhang HD, Cheng CJ, Zhang YM, Zhang Q. Risk factor analysis and nomogram model construction for mortality in patients following colonic perforation surgery. World J Gastrointest Surg 2026; 18(2): 115427 [DOI: 10.4240/wjgs.v18.i2.115427]
Corresponding Author of This Article
Qi Zhang, MD, Professor, Researcher, Department of General Surgery, Anqing Municipal Hospital, No. 352 Renmin Road, Anqing 246000, Anhui Province, China. drzhangqi1987@163.com
Research Domain of This Article
Gastroenterology & Hepatology
Article-Type of This Article
Retrospective Cohort Study
Open-Access Policy of This Article
This article is an open-access article which was selected by an in-house editor and fully peer-reviewed by external reviewers. It is distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/
Feb 27, 2026 (publication date) through Feb 26, 2026
Times Cited of This Article
Times Cited (0)
Journal Information of This Article
Publication Name
World Journal of Gastrointestinal Surgery
ISSN
1948-9366
Publisher of This Article
Baishideng Publishing Group Inc, 7041 Koll Center Parkway, Suite 160, Pleasanton, CA 94566, USA
Share the Article
Xu XJ, Zhang HD, Cheng CJ, Zhang YM, Zhang Q. Risk factor analysis and nomogram model construction for mortality in patients following colonic perforation surgery. World J Gastrointest Surg 2026; 18(2): 115427 [DOI: 10.4240/wjgs.v18.i2.115427]
Xiu-Juan Xu, Chu-Ji Cheng, Department of Critical Medicine, Anqing Municipal Hospital, Anqing 246000, Anhui Province, China
Hou-Dao Zhang, Ya-Ming Zhang, Qi Zhang, Department of General Surgery, Anqing Municipal Hospital, Anqing 246000, Anhui Province, China
Co-corresponding authors: Ya-Ming Zhang and Qi Zhang.
Author contributions: Xu XJ, Zhang Q and Cheng CJ wrote the main manuscript text; Zhang HD prepared table; Zhang Q and Zhang YM revised the manuscript. All authors reviewed the manuscript. Zhang Q provided the essential clinical and methodological framework for risk prediction in critically ill surgical patients, overseeing data analysis and model validation. Zhang YM contributed the vital surgical perspective, ensuring the clinical relevance and applicability of the predictive model and the proposed management pathway. Their dual leadership was indispensable for bridging the gap between intensive care prognostication and surgical decision-making-the core interdisciplinary focus of this work. Assigning co-correspondence accurately represents this collaborative partnership, ensures that readers and the scientific community can directly access expertise from both critical care and surgical domains, and aligns with accepted authorship guidelines recognizing shared senior contribution.
Institutional review board statement: This study was approved by the Ethics Committee of Anqing Municipal Hospital under ethical approval number Medical Ethics Review (2025) No. 173.
Informed consent statement: Informed consent was obtained from all participating patients.
Conflict-of-interest statement: The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
STROBE statement: The authors have read the STROBE Statement-checklist of items, and the manuscript was prepared and revised according to the STROBE Statement-checklist of items.
Data sharing statement: Data is provided within the manuscript or Supplementary material.
Corresponding author: Qi Zhang, MD, Professor, Researcher, Department of General Surgery, Anqing Municipal Hospital, No. 352 Renmin Road, Anqing 246000, Anhui Province, China. drzhangqi1987@163.com
Received: October 20, 2025 Revised: December 5, 2025 Accepted: January 6, 2026 Published online: February 27, 2026 Processing time: 133 Days and 6.5 Hours
Core Tip
Core Tip: A nomogram model incorporating the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score, lactate level, white blood cell count, and presence of portal venous gas was developed and internally validated to predict mortality after colonic perforation surgery (area under the curve = 0.852). The dual-threshold “0.020 high-sensitivity screen + 0.121 resource-efficient confirmation” funnel strategy reduced the need for high-level intervention by 53% in this cohort while maintaining high sensitivity (95.2%). This visual tool offers a practical, system-compatible decision aid for early risk stratification and intensive care unit resource optimization, although external validation in multicentre, prospective studies is needed before clinical implementation.
