Construction of a risk prediction model for early postoperative recurrence in stage II/III colorectal cancer

Table 1 The clinical characteristics of the included patients, n (%)

Variables	Total (n = 349)	Non-recurrence (n = 311)	Recurrence (n = 38)	Statistic	P value
Age, mean ± SD	61.12 ± 10.66	60.95 ± 10.62	62.47 ± 11.10	t = -0.83	0.407
Sex				χ2 = 0.02	0.885
Female	160 (45.85)	143 (45.98)	17 (44.74)	-	-
Male	189 (54.15)	168 (54.02)	21 (55.26)	-	-
Smoking				χ2 = 0.34	0.557
No	244 (69.91)	219 (70.42)	25 (65.79)	-	-
Yes	105 (30.09)	92 (29.58)	13 (34.21)	-	-
Alcoholism				χ2 = 0.09	0.766
No	250 (71.63)	222 (71.38)	28 (73.68)	-	-
Yes	99 (28.37)	89 (28.62)	10 (26.32)	-	-
Family history				χ2 = 0.11	0.744
No	330 (94.56)	295 (94.86)	35 (92.11)	-	-
Yes	19 (5.44)	16 (5.14)	3 (7.89)	-	-
Diabetes				χ2 = 2.26	0.132
No	280 (80.23)	253 (81.35)	27 (71.05)	-	-
Yes	69 (19.77)	58 (18.65)	11 (28.95)	-	-
Hypertension				χ2 = 0.03	0.858
No	225 (64.47)	201 (64.63)	24 (63.16)	-	-
Yes	124 (35.53)	110 (35.37)	14 (36.84)	-	-
Year of surgery				χ2 = 1.47	0.832
2019	57 (16.33)	52 (16.72)	5 (13.16)	-	-
2020	67 (19.20)	59 (18.97)	8 (21.05)	-	-
2021	71 (20.34)	64 (20.58)	7 (18.42)	-	-
2022	78 (22.35)	67 (21.54)	11 (28.95)	-	-
2023	76 (21.78)	69 (22.19)	7 (18.42)	-	-
Chemotherapy				χ2 = 1.64	0.2
No	177 (50.72)	154 (49.52)	23 (60.53)	-	-
Yes	172 (49.28)	157 (50.48)	15 (39.47)	-	-
Radiation				χ2 = 0.76	0.382
No	285 (81.66)	252 (81.03)	33 (86.84)	-	-
Yes	64 (18.34)	59 (18.97)	5 (13.16)	-	-
Chinese medicine				χ2 = 3.41	0.065
No	162 (46.42)	139 (44.69)	23 (60.53)	-	-
Yes	187 (53.58)	172 (55.31)	15 (39.47)	-	-
Location				χ2 = 0.32	0.854
Both	15 (4.30)	13 (4.18)	2 (5.26)	-	-
Distal colon	234 (67.05)	210 (67.52)	24 (63.16)	-	-
Proximal colon	100 (28.65)	88 (28.30)	12 (31.58)	-	-
Size, mean ± SD	2.76 ± 1.75	2.48 ± 1.58	5.03 ± 1.44	t = -9.47	< 0.001
ACJJ T				-	0.879
T1	17 (4.87)	16 (5.14)	1 (2.63)	-	-
T2	42 (12.03)	37 (11.90)	5 (13.16)	-	-
T3	290 (83.09)	258 (82.96)	32 (84.21)	-	-
ACJJ N				χ2 = 19.30	< 0.001
N0	155 (44.41)	148 (47.59)	7 (18.42)	-	-
N1	140 (40.11)	123 (39.55)	17 (44.74)	-	-
N2	54 (15.47)	40 (12.86)	14 (36.84)	-	-
Grade				χ2 = 1.66	0.197
II	276 (79.08)	249 (80.06)	27 (71.05)	-	-
III	73 (20.92)	62 (19.94)	11 (28.95)	-	-
WBC, mean ± SD	10.14 ± 3.78	10.21 ± 3.73	9.56 ± 4.14	t = 1.00	0.318
RBC, mean ± SD	3.43 ± 0.70	3.45 ± 0.70	3.26 ± 0.67	t = 1.59	0.113
HGB, mean ± SD	103.28 ± 19.74	103.18 ± 19.64	104.16 ± 20.82	t = -0.29	0.773
PLT, mean ± SD	274.21 ± 117.44	275.36 ± 119.25	264.79 ± 102.34	t = 0.52	0.601
NLR, mean ± SD	3.24 ± 1.07	3.12 ± 0.98	4.29 ± 1.22	t = -6.74	< 0.001
PLR, mean ± SD	121.45 ± 46.21	119.57 ± 43.13	136.87 ± 65.04	t = -2.19	0.029
CEA				χ2 = 0.61	0.434
Negative	231 (66.19)	208 (66.88)	23 (60.53)	-	-
Positive	118 (33.81)	103 (33.12)	15 (39.47)	-	-
Fatigue				χ2 = 8.44	0.004
No	205 (58.74)	191 (61.41)	14 (36.84)	-	-
Yes	144 (41.26)	120 (38.59)	24 (63.16)	-	-
Appetite loss				χ2 = 36.94	< 0.001
No	235 (67.34)	226 (72.67)	9 (23.68)	-	-
Yes	114 (32.66)	85 (27.33)	29 (76.32)	-	-

Distal colon: The distal colon is composed of descending colons, sigmoid colonies, and the rectum. Proximal Colon: The proximal colon refers to cecum, transverse colon and ascending colon. t-test, A negative t-value indicates that the mean value of this indicator in the recurrence group is significantly higher than that in the non-recurrence group (P < 0.05). ACJJ T: American Joint Committee on Cancer Tumor; ACJJ N: American Joint Committee on Cancer Lymph Node; WBC: White blood cell; RBC: Red blood cell; HGB: Hemoglobin; PLT: Platelet; NLR: Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio; PLR: Platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio; CEA: Carcinoembryonic antigen.

Table 2 Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis for colorectal cancer patients in the training set

Variables	Univariate logistic regression analysis					Multivariate logistic regression analysis
	β	SE	Z	P value	OR (95%CI)	β	SE	Z	P value	OR (95%CI)
Size	0.9	0.16	5.67	< 0.001	2.45 (1.80-3.34)	1.43	0.36	3.93	< 0.001	4.17 (2.05-8.50)
ACJJ N
N0	-	-	-	-	1.00 (reference)	-	-	-	-	1.00 (reference)
N1	0.97	0.63	1.54	0.124	2.63 (0.77-9.05)	1.03	1.12	0.93	0.355	2.81 (0.32-24.98)
N2	2.49	0.61	4.1	< 0.001	12.10 (3.67-39.92)	3.59	1.12	3.19	0.001	36.05 (3.98-326.47)
NLR	1.29	0.25	5.23	< 0.001	3.64 (2.24-5.91)	1.33	0.39	3.43	< 0.001	3.80 (1.77-8.14)
PLR	0.01	0	1.89	0.059	1.01 (1.00-1.01)	0	0.01	0.7	0.483	1.00 (0.99-1.02)
Fatigue
No	-	-	-	-	1.00 (reference)	-	-	-	-	1.00 (reference)
Yes	0.6	0.43	1.41	0.158	1.82 (0.79-4.20)	-1.08	0.88	-1.22	0.221	0.34 (0.06-1.92)
Appetite loss
No	-	-	-	-	1.00 (reference)	-	-	-	-	1.00 (reference)
Yes	1.97	0.47	4.17	< 0.001	7.14 (2.84-17.97)	3.84	1.09	3.53	< 0.001	46.52 (5.53-391.38)

CI: Confidence interval; OR: Odds ratio; ACJJ N: American Joint Committee on Cancer Lymph Node; NLR: Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio; PLR: Platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio.