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World J Gastrointest Oncol. Apr 15, 2026; 18(4): 113266
Published online Apr 15, 2026. doi: 10.4251/wjgo.v18.i4.113266
Cost-effectiveness analysis of seven treatments vs sorafenib as first-line therapy for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma in China
Zhi-Huan Lin, Yan He, Hai-Xia Xu, Liang Xiao
Zhi-Huan Lin, Yan He, Hai-Xia Xu, Liang Xiao, Department of Medical Oncology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Shenzhen University, Shenzhen Second People’s Hospital, Shenzhen 518035, Guangdong Province, China
Co-first authors: Zhi-Huan Lin and Yan He.
Co-corresponding authors: Hai-Xia Xu and Liang Xiao.
Author contributions: Lin ZH and He Y contributed to data collection and analyzation, wrote the first draft of the manuscript as co-first authors; Lin ZH, He Y, and Xu HX mainly revised the manuscript; Xu HX and Xiao L designed the study and wrote the protocol as co-corresponding authors; all authors approved the final version of the manuscript.
Supported by Natural Science Foundation of Shen Zhen City, No. JCYJ20220530151002004.
Conflict-of-interest statement: All authors declare no conflict of interest in publishing the manuscript.
PRISMA 2009 Checklist statement: The authors have read the PRISMA 2009 Checklist, and the manuscript was prepared and revised according to the PRISMA 2009 Checklist.
Corresponding author: Hai-Xia Xu, MD, Department of Medical Oncology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Shenzhen University, Shenzhen Second People’s Hospital, No. 3002 Sungang West Road, Futian District, Shenzhen 518035, Guangdong Province, China. xhx198345@vip.163.com
Received: August 20, 2025
Revised: November 23, 2025
Accepted: January 14, 2026
Published online: April 15, 2026
Processing time: 231 Days and 7.4 Hours
Abstract
BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most common type of primary liver cancer and represents a significant health burden in China, where selecting cost-effective first-line therapies for advanced disease remains critical.

AIM

To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of seven high-efficacy regimens for advanced HCC from the perspective of the Chinese healthcare system.

METHODS

A systematic network meta-analysis was conducted on 23 first-line treatment regimens from 22 phase III randomized controlled trials. Seven high-efficacy regimens were then subjected to cost-effectiveness evaluation using a Markov model. Hazard ratios for progression-free survival and overall survival specific to Chinese subgroups were preferentially employed to derive survival parameters; when unavailable, Asian subgroup data were substituted to maintain population relevance. The analysis incorporated survival data, adverse event profiles, and direct medical costs.

RESULTS

The network meta-analysis ranked lenvatinib plus transarterial chemoembolization (L + T) highest for both progression-free survival and overall survival [surface under the cumulative ranking curve: (1) 100%; and (2) 99.4%, respectively]. The cost-effectiveness analysis revealed that L + T [incremental cost-effectiveness ratio = $37753.45 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY)] and rivoceranib plus camrelizumab (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio = $37198.84/QALY) were cost-effective options, both below the willingness-to-pay threshold of $37669/QALY. L + T showed the highest probability (67.9%) of being the optimal treatment option.

CONCLUSION

L + T emerges as the optimal first-line therapy for advanced HCC in China, offering an effective balance between clinical outcomes and cost-effectiveness.

Keywords: Hepatocellular carcinoma; Cost-effectiveness; Network meta-analysis; First-line treatment; China

Core Tip: The economic evaluation of various first-line treatment regimens for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma is crucial, yet such analyses remain scarce. This study conducted a network meta-analysis of 23 first-line regimens for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma and subsequently performed a cost-effectiveness analysis on seven highly efficacious regimens from the perspective of the Chinese healthcare system. The results indicated that lenvatinib combined with transarterial chemoembolization emerged as the most favorable first-line treatment under current economic conditions in China, achieving a 67.9% probability of being the most cost-effective option. This study contributes a novel perspective to inform clinical decision-making for healthcare professionals.