Gu YM, Liu J, Wang YY, Liu GL, Li YY, Li XM, Zhao Y, Cheng HJ, Zhao J, Li YM. Spatiotemporal trends in pancreatic cancer incidence from 2013 to 2023 in Gansu Province, Northwest China: A regional study. World J Gastroenterol 2026; 32(31): 119592 [DOI: 10.3748/wjg.119592]
Corresponding Author of This Article
Yu-Min Li, MD, PhD, Chief Physician, Professor, Department of General Surgery, Lanzhou University Second Hospital, No. 82 Cuiying Gate, Lanzhou 730030, Gansu Province, China. liym@lzu.edu.cn
Research Domain of This Article
Oncology
Article-Type of This Article
research-article
Open-Access Policy of This Article
This article is an open-access article which was selected by an in-house editor and fully peer-reviewed by external reviewers. It is distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/
Baishideng Publishing Group Inc, 7041 Koll Center Parkway, Suite 160, Pleasanton, CA 94566, USA
Share the Article
Gu YM, Liu J, Wang YY, Liu GL, Li YY, Li XM, Zhao Y, Cheng HJ, Zhao J, Li YM. Spatiotemporal trends in pancreatic cancer incidence from 2013 to 2023 in Gansu Province, Northwest China: A regional study. World J Gastroenterol 2026; 32(31): 119592 [DOI: 10.3748/wjg.119592]
World J Gastroenterol. Aug 21, 2026; 32(31): 119592 Published online Aug 21, 2026. doi: 10.3748/wjg.119592
Spatiotemporal trends in pancreatic cancer incidence from 2013 to 2023 in Gansu Province, Northwest China: A regional study
Yan-Mei Gu, Jie Liu, Ying-Ying Wang, Gang-Li Liu, Yuan-Yuan Li, Xiao-Mei Li, Yang Zhao, Hui-Juan Cheng, Jun Zhao, Yu-Min Li
Yan-Mei Gu, Jie Liu, Ying-Ying Wang, Gang-Li Liu, Yuan-Yuan Li, Xiao-Mei Li, Yang Zhao, Hui-Juan Cheng, Jun Zhao, Yu-Min Li, Department of General Surgery, Lanzhou University Second Hospital, Lanzhou 730030, Gansu Province, China
Yu-Min Li, Gansu Province Key Laboratory of Environmental Oncology, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730030, Gansu Province, China
Author contributions: Gu YM and Li YM designed the study and acquired funding; Gu YM and Liu J were responsible for developing the methodology; Wang YY, Liu GL, Li YY, and Li XM participated in the formal analysis and investigation; Gu YM wrote the original draft; Gu YM, Zhao Y, Cheng HJ, Zhao J, and Li YM participated in the article review and editing. All authors have read and approved the final version to be published.
Supported by the Cuiying Science and Technology Innovation Program Project of the Second Hospital of Lanzhou University, No. CY2022-MS-A18; and the Chief Scientist Project of the Science and Technology Department of Gansu Province, No. 22JR9KA002.
Institutional review board statement: This study adhered to the principles of the Declaration of Helsinki. This study was approved by the Ethics Committee of the Lanzhou University Second Hospital (No. 2022A-670).
Informed consent statement: According to national regulations, the Ethics Committee of the Lanzhou University Second Hospital did not require the use of informed consents.
Conflict-of-interest statement: All the authors report no relevant conflicts of interest for this article.
STROBE statement: The authors have read the STROBE Statement-checklist of items, and the manuscript was prepared and revised according to the STROBE Statement-checklist of items.
Data sharing statement: The data, models and the code that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon request.
Corresponding author: Yu-Min Li, MD, PhD, Chief Physician, Professor, Department of General Surgery, Lanzhou University Second Hospital, No. 82 Cuiying Gate, Lanzhou 730030, Gansu Province, China. liym@lzu.edu.cn
Received: February 6, 2026 Revised: March 6, 2026 Accepted: April 16, 2026 Published online: August 21, 2026 Processing time: 179 Days and 16.6 Hours
Abstract
BACKGROUND
Pancreatic cancer (PC) is a malignant neoplasm with a rising incidence, yet long-term provincial trends in China remain unclear.
AIM
To comprehensively analyze the spatiotemporal distribution of, and trends in, PC incidence in Gansu Province from 2013 to 2023.
METHODS
Data on PC cases were gathered from 262 hospitals in Gansu Province, focusing on age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) stratified by county, gender, and climate. Moran’s I was employed for spatial autocorrelation analysis to detect clustering patterns in PC incidence. SatScan was utilized to detect spatiotemporal clusters of PC, using a Poisson model as a basis. Joinpoint regression was used to evaluate temporal trends and determine the average annual percent change. Socioeconomic and healthcare indicators were examined using spatial regression analysis.
RESULTS
In 2013-2023, PC incidence in Gansu Province rose from 590 to 1017 cases, with the ASIR increasing from 2.39 per 100000 people to 3.23 per 100000 people. The ASIR was higher in males compared to females, and higher in the elderly than in the young people. Global spatial clustering highlighted hotspots in the Hexi region, and a high-risk region and two low-risk regions were identified. The provincial incidence exhibited an increasing trend. The ASIR of PC in Tianshui, Zhangye, Qingyang, Dingxi, and Linxia showed a continuous upward trend. The incidence of PC in the Monsoon climate of medium latitudes (Dwb climate zone) was high and rising. Area-level analyses suggested that socioeconomic development may partially contribute to spatial heterogeneity.
CONCLUSION
PC incidence increased in Gansu Province from 2013 to 2023, especially in the Hexi region and arid-cold areas, highlighting priority counties for targeted prevention, earlier diagnosis, and resource allocation.
Core Tip: Using province-level multi-center hospital surveillance data from 262 hospitals in Gansu Province, China from 2013 to 2023, we quantified pancreatic cancer incidence trends and mapped county-level spatiotemporal clusters. It was found that age-standarded incidence increased from 2.39 per 100000 people to 3.23 per 100000 population, with consistently higher rates in men and older adults. Spatial autocorrelation and SaTScan revealed persistent high-risk hotspots concentrated in the Hexi region, and an increasing burden in the Dwb climate zone. These results provide an evidence for targeted prevention, earlier diagnosis, and resource allocation in high-risk counties.
