Establishment and evaluation of a prognostic model for patients with unresectable gastric cancer liver metastases

Table 1 Demographic and clinical characteristics of the derivation and validation cohorts, n (%)/median (25^th, 75^th)

Variables	Derivation cohort	Validation cohort	P value
n	248	124
Age (yr)	60.0 (52-67)	60.0 (53-67)	0.198
Sex			0.427
Men	204 (82.3)	102 (82.3)	0.219
Women	44 (17.7)	22 (17.7)	0.274
BMI, kg/m2	23.6 (21.1-25.7)	23.6 (20.9-25.8)	0.295
Albumin, g/L	36.2 (33.5-40.0)	36.4 (33.6-40.3)	0.187
Hemoglobin, g/L	117.0 (95-135.3)	117.0 (95-135)	0.109
CEA, ng/mL	9.7 (2.5-59.3)	9.6 (2.4-59)	0.159
AFP, μg/L	3.5 (2.2-8.2)	3.4 (2.2-8.)	0.213
ALT, U/L	18.6 (11.8-35.2)	18.7 (11.9-35.4)	0.308
AST, U/L	22.8 (15.4-47.9)	22.7 (15.4-47.7)	0.103
GGT, U/L	22.5 (10.3-46.2)	22.4 (10.3-46.0)	0.235
TG, mmol/L	1.1 (0.9-1.4)	1.1 (0.9-1.4)	0.122
TC, mmol/L	4.2 (3.5-4.8)	4.2 (3.4-4.8)	0.169
Drinking habit			0.155
Yes	91 (36.8)	46 (37)
No	157 (63.2)	78 (63)
Primary tumor size, cm	3.4 (2.4-5)	3.4 (2.5-5)	0.213
Surgery			0.409
Yes	64 (25.9)	32 (25.8)
No	184 (74.1)	92 (74.2)
Extrahepatic metastases			0.504
Yes	48 (19.4)	24 (19.4)
No	200 (80.6)	100 (80.6)
Chemotherapy			0.306
Yes	40 (16.1)	20 (16.1)
No	208 (83.9)	104 (83.9)
Primary site			0.186
Proximal	60 (24.2)	30 (24.2)
Gastric body	75 (30.3)	37 (29.8)
Distal	101 (40.7)	51 (41.1)
Multiple or whole stomach/anastomosis	12 (4.8)	6 (4.8)
Metastases size (max)	3.3 (2.2-5.7)	3.3 (2.2-5.6)	0.279
Metastases site			0.127
Left liver	24 (9.6)	12 (9.6)
Right liver	39 (15.7)	19 (15.3)
Whole liver	182 (73.4)	91 (73.4)
Hilar	2 (0.9)	1 (0.9)
Other	1 (0.4)	1 (0.8)

Data expressed as median (25^th, 75^th) for skewed variables and percentage (%) for categorical variables. BMI: Body mass index; CEA: Carcinoembryonic antigen; AFP: Alpha-fetoprotein; TC: Total cholesterol; TG: Triglyceride; AST: Aspartate transferase; GGT: Gamma-glutamyl transferase; ALT: Alanine aminotransferase.

Table 2 Cox regression analysis of factors for outcome in the derivation cohort

Variables	Univariate analysis		Multivariate analysis
	HR (95%CI)	P value	HR (95%CI)	P value
Age (yr)	0.96 (0.75-1.23)	0.108	0.84 (0.69-1.02)	0.074
Sex, n (%)			0.96 (0.82-1.11)	0.557
Men	Reference
Women	0.89 (0.76-1.05)	0.286
BMI, kg/m2	0.97 (0.96-0.99)	0.045	1.19 (0.87,1.64)	0.158
Albumin, g/L	0.64 (0.44-0.95)	0.016	0.95 (0.91, 0.99)	0.016
Hemoglobin, g/L	1.02 (0.98-1.06)	0.361
CEA, ng/ml	0.98 (0.92-1.04)	0.170
AFP, μg/L	0.46 (0.10-2.05)	0.251
ALT, U/L	0.91 (0.83-1.01)	0.224
AST, U/L	1.01 (0.43-2.33)	0.668
GGT, U/L	0.99 (0.94-1.06)	0.145
TG, mmol/L	0.76 (0.47-1.25)	0.130
TC, mmol/L	0.88 (0.41-1.88)	0.254
Drinking habit
Yes	Reference
No	1.19 (0.49-2.88)	0.638
Primary tumor size, cm	1.49 (1.03-2.16)	0.009	1.12 (1.05-1.25)	0.031
Surgery
Yes	0.49 (0.33-0.73)	0.001	0.38 (0.19-0.70)	0.005
No	Reference		Reference
Extrahepatic metastases
Yes	2.12 (1.35-3.34)	0.001	2.20 (1.30-3.64)	0.004
No	Reference		Reference
Chemotherapy
Yes	0.66 (0.48-0.90)	0.006	0.45 (0.24-0.85)	0.010
No	Reference		Reference
Primary site
Proximal	Reference
Gastric body	1.48 (0.51-3.25)	0.213
Distal	1.07 (0.89-1.30)	0.320
Multiple or whole stomach/anastomosis	1.00 (0.57-1.74)	0.971
Metastases size(max)	0.93 (0.48-1.84)	0.119
Metastases site
Left liver	Reference
Right liver	1.31 (0.72-2.38)	0.192
Whole liver	0.65 (0.30-1.38)	0.183
Hilar	0.55 (0.18-1.65)	0.610
Other	1.56 (0.67-3.62)	0.214

BMI: Body mass index; CEA: Carcinoembryonic antigen; AFP: Alpha-fetoprotein; TC: Total cholesterol; TG: Triglyceride; AST: Aspartate transferase; GGT: Gamma-glutamyl transferase; ALT: Alanine aminotransferase; HR: Hazard ratio.