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World J Radiol. Jul 28, 2026; 18(7): 123894
Published online Jul 28, 2026. doi: 10.4329/wjr.123894
Development and validation of a clinical factor-based nomogram for predicting imaging-defined cardiopulmonary abnormality risk in an asymptomatic screening population
Zhong-Yun He, Zhi-Wei Zhan, Le-Jiang Zhou, Jun Tang, Chen Chen, Qing-Jun Yang, Qiang Tian, Xiao-Hong Wang
Zhong-Yun He, Zhi-Wei Zhan, Le-Jiang Zhou, Jun Tang, Chen Chen, Qing-Jun Yang, Qiang Tian, Department of Radiology, Zhuzhou 331 Hospital, Zhuzhou 412002, Hunan Province, China
Xiao-Hong Wang, Department of Radiology, The Second Xiangya Hospital, Changsha 410011, Hunan Province, China
Co-first authors: Zhong-Yun He and Zhi-Wei Zhan.
Author contributions: Zhan ZW designed the research, analyzed the data, and wrote the paper; Yang QJ and Tian Q performed the research (epidemiological questionnaire data collection); Zhou LJ, Tang J, and Chen C performed the research (imaging data collection and organization); Wang XH analyzed the data; He ZY designed the research, wrote the paper, and obtained the funding. All authors have read and approved the final manuscript. He ZY and Zhan ZW contributed equally to this work as co-first authors.
AI contribution statement: The authors take full responsibility and accountability for all content of this manuscript, including any portions for which AI tools were used as assistive technologies. All AI-assisted outputs were carefully reviewed, validated, and approved by the authors. AI tools were not used to generate original scientific data, perform independent scientific analyses, or draw scientific conclusions.
Supported by Hunan Provincial Natural Science Foundation Regional Joint Fund Project, No. 2024JJ7652.
Institutional review board statement: This study was conducted in accordance with the Declaration of Helsinki and was approved by the Ethics Committee of Zhuzhou 331 Hospital (Approval No. 202503-K1-J1).
Informed consent statement: All study participants provided written informed consent prior to examination. This study was approved by the Ethics Committee of Zhuzhou 331 Hospital.
Conflict-of-interest statement: All authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest regarding the publication of this paper.
Data sharing statement: The datasets generated and analyzed during this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
Corresponding author: Zhong-Yun He, Department of Radiology, Zhuzhou 331 Hospital, No. 1398 Zhudong Road, Lusong District, Zhuzhou 412002, Hunan Province, China. hezhongyun@126.com
Received: June 2, 2026
Revised: June 23, 2026
Accepted: July 8, 2026
Published online: July 28, 2026
Processing time: 53 Days and 22.4 Hours
Abstract
BACKGROUND

Chronic cardiopulmonary diseases, including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, interstitial lung disease, and coronary artery disease, represent a major global health burden. Low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) combined with artificial intelligence (AI) quantitative imaging enables the identification of cardiopulmonary imaging abnormalities in asymptomatic individuals.

AIM

To evaluate early risk factors for cardiopulmonary imaging abnormalities in asymptomatic middle-aged and elderly population using single-inspiratory phase LDCT combined with AI-based whole-lung quantitative analysis.

METHODS

A retrospective collection was conducted on 1035 asymptomatic individuals aged ≥ 40 years who underwent routine single-inspiratory-phase LDCT screening at Zhuzhou 331 Hospital in 2025. An AI platform was utilized to automatically extract airway wall area percentage, low-attenuation area percentage, interstitial lung abnormality, and coronary artery calcification score. Based on risk stratification criteria, the population was divided into a high-risk group (n = 689) and a low-risk group (n = 346) and randomly stratified into a training set (n = 724) and a validation set (n = 311) at a 7:3 ratio. Independent sample t-test or χ2 test was applied to analyze between-group differences. Binary logistic regression was used to screen independently associated factors, and a multivariate logistic regression model was constructed after excluding collinear variables using variance inflation factor (VIF < 5), followed by the establishment of a nomogram prediction model. The receiver operating characteristic curve and DeLong test were employed to evaluate model discrimination. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test and calibration curves were used to assess goodness of fit. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was applied to evaluate clinical net benefit, and internal validation was performed using the bootstrap method (1000 resamplings).

RESULTS

Univariate analysis showed that smoking history, abnormal metabolic status, body mass index (BMI), age, and gender were significantly associated with cardiopulmonary imaging-defined high-risk status (P < 0.05), while work style showed a marginal association in univariate analysis (P = 0.043) but did not retain statistical significance in the multivariate model (P = 0.851). After VIF collinearity screening (all VIF < 5) and multivariate logistic regression analysis with forced entry of six candidate variables, smoking history [odds ratio (OR) = 1.968 per level, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.665-2.325, P < 0.001], abnormal metabolic status (OR = 3.266, 95%CI: 2.259-4.723, P < 0.001), BMI (OR = 1.150 per unit, 95%CI: 1.079-1.226, P < 0.001), and age (OR = 1.028 per year, 95%CI: 1.005-1.052, P = 0.018) were identified as independently associated factors for cardiopulmonary imaging-defined high-risk status, while male gender demonstrated an (inverse) association (OR = 0.427, 95%CI: 0.276-0.660, P < 0.001) after adjustment for smoking and other covariates. The nomogram-based risk stratification model integrating the above five independently associated factors achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.833 (95%CI: 0.787-0.879) in the validation set, significantly outperforming the baseline model containing only age and gender (AUC = 0.647, 95%CI: 0.582-0.712; DeLong test: Delta AUC = 0.186, z = 5.256, P < 0.001). The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test confirmed satisfactory calibration (training set: χ2 = 10.40, P = 0.238; validation set: χ2 = 6.50, P = 0.591). Calibration curves and DCA demonstrated good agreement and positive clinical net benefit. Bootstrap internal validation (1000 resamples) confirmed model robustness (mean AUC = 0.792, 95%CI: 0.760-0.824).

CONCLUSION

The LDCT-based nomogram model combined with AI quantitative imaging analysis may assist in identifying individuals with cardiopulmonary imaging abnormalities in asymptomatic screening populations, potentially guiding further diagnostic evaluation. Prospective studies are warranted to establish its role in improving clinical outcomes.

Keywords: Computed tomography; Artificial intelligence; Cardiopulmonary imaging abnormalities; Middle-aged and elderly population; Opportunistic screening

Core Tip: This study developed and validated a clinical factor-based nomogram for predicting imaging-defined cardiopulmonary imaging abnormalities in 1035 asymptomatic screening individuals using artificial intelligence-assisted low-dose computed tomography quantitative analysis. Five independently associated factors were identified: Smoking history, abnormal metabolic status, body mass index, age, and gender. The nomogram achieved an area under the curve of 0.833 in the validation set. This model may assist early, non-invasive risk stratification for cardiopulmonary imaging abnormalities during routine lung cancer screening, potentially guiding timely preventive interventions in high-risk populations.

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