Prediction model for the occurrence of acute pancreatitis after endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography based on multidimensional indicators

Table 1 Comparison of the two groups' baseline data, n (%)

Baseline data	PEP group (n = 24)	Non-PEP group (n = 159)	|t|/χ2	P value
Age, years			4.768	0.029
< 60	13 (54.17)	50 (31.45)
≥ 60	11 (45.83)	109 (68.55)
Sex (male/female)	10 (41.67)/14 (58.33)	98 (62.26)/61 (37.73)	3.438	0.064
History of pancreatitis (yes/no)	9 (37.50)/15 (62.50)	13 (8.18)/146 (91.82)	16.953	< 0.01
History of hypertension (yes/no)	4 (16.67)/20 (83.33)	33 (20.75)/126 (79.25)	0.216	0.642
TC (mmol/L)	3.84 ± 0.74	4.19 ± 0.79	2.072	0.040
LDL (mmol/L)	2.67 ± 0.54	2.61 ± 0.56	0.500	0.618
HDL (mmol/L)	1.34 ± 0.34	1.31 ± 0.30	0.479	0.633
TG (mmol/L)	1.74 ± 0.68	1.65 ± 0.59	0.704	0.483

TC: Total cholesterol; LDL: Low density lipoprotein; HDL: High density lipoprotein; TG: Triglyceride; PEP: Post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography pancreatitis.

Table 2 Intraoperative conditions comparison between the two groups, n (%)

Intraoperative situations	PEP group (n = 24)	Non-PEP group (n = 159)	|t|/χ2	P value
Choledochal dilatation (yes/no)	4 (16.67)/20 (83.33)	19 (11.95)/140 (88.05)	0.422	0.516
Duodenal papillary sphincter dissection (yes/no)	19 (79.17)/5 (20.83)	116 (72.96)/43 (27.04)	0.416	0.519
Pancreatic ductography (yes/no)	7 (29.17)/17 (70.83)	19 (11.95)/138 (86.79)	4.928	0.026
Deeper penetration of the guidewire into the pancreatic duct (yes/no)	11 (45.83)/13 (54.17)	64 (40.25)/95 (59.75)	0.269	0.604
Bleeding (yes/no)	12 (50.00)/12 (50.00)	23 (14.47)/136 (85.53)	17.023	< 0.01
Intubation number			3.288	0.070
< 3	17	136
≥ 3	7	23
Intubation time, minutes			5.002	0.025
< 10	9	61
≥ 10	15	98

PEP: Post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography pancreatitis.

Table 3 Univariate logistic regression to analyze the influence of post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography pancreatitis

	β	SE	OR	95%CI	P value
Age	-0.946	0.444	0.388	0.163, 0.926	0.033
TC	-1.111	0.324	0.329	0.174, 0.622	< 0.01
History of pancreatitis	1.995	0.518	7.350	2.665, 20.271	< 0.01
Pancreatic ductography	1.110	0.511	3.034	1.114, 8.265	0.030
Bleeding	1.777	0.466	5.913	2.370, 14.750	< 0.01
Intubation time	0.037	0.452	1.037	0.428, 2.516	0.935

TC: Total cholesterol; PEP: Post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography pancreatitis; OR: Odds ratio; CI: Confidence interval.

Table 4 Multifactor logistic regression to analyse the influence of post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography pancreatitis

	β	SE	OR	95%CI	P value
Age	-1.650	0.658	0.192	0.053, 0.698	0.012
TC	-1.126	0.388	0.324	0.152, 0.694	0.004
History of pancreatitis	1.818	0.636	6.159	1.770, 21.434	0.004
Pancreatic ductography	1.315	0.657	3.726	1.028, 13.507	0.045
Bleeding	1.118	0.570	3.059	1.001, 9.349	0.049

TC: Total cholesterol; PEP: Post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography pancreatitis; CI: Confidence interval.

Table 5 External validation of the model

Predict	Actual		Total
	PEP	Non-PEP
PEP	16	5	21
Non-PEP	5	66	71
Total	21	71	92

PEP: Post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography pancreatitis; Non-PEP: Non-post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography pancreatitis.