Using the triglyceride-glucose index and derived indexes to forecast progression from pre-diabetes to diabetes: A 3-year follow-up study

doi:10.4239/wjd.v17.i2.114253

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Feb 15, 2026 (publication date) through Feb 12, 2026

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World Journal of Diabetes

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1948-9358

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Baishideng Publishing Group Inc, 7041 Koll Center Parkway, Suite 160, Pleasanton, CA 94566, USA

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World J Diabetes. Feb 15, 2026; 17(2): 114253
Published online Feb 15, 2026. doi: 10.4239/wjd.v17.i2.114253

Table 1 Characteristics of participants, mean ± SD

Variables	Total	Non-diabetes	Diabetes	P value	Cohen’s d value
Type proportion (IFG/IGT)	282/1070	252/947	30/123	0.752
Gender (male/female)	341/1011	289/901	43/110	0.375
Age (year)	58.44 ± 8.21	58.43 ± 8.35	58.58 ± 7.03	0.826	0.01943
Weight (kg)	67.52 ± 10.88	67.14 ± 10.75	70.52 ± 11.43	0.000	0.30464
Height (m)	160.73 ± 7.65	160.70 ± 7.63	160.99 ± 7.92	0.661	0.03729
BMI (kg/m²)	26.08 ± 3.38	25.94 ± 3.33	27.18 ± 3.60	0.000	0.35759
WC (cm)	90.73 ± 9.34	90.40 ± 9.25	93.29 ± 9.64	0.000	0.30592
HC (cm)	101.5 ± 7.23	101.26 ± 7.13	103.37 ± 7.73	0.001	0.28375
WHR	0.89 ± 0.06	0.89 ± 0.06	0.90 ± 0.06	0.061	0.16667
SBP (mmHg)	143.29 ± 20.46	143.04 ± 20.38	145.25 ± 21.00	0.069	0.1068
DBP (mmHg)	81.38 ± 11.21	81.21 ± 11.25	82.68 ± 10.87	0.126	0.13289
FPG (mmol/L)	5.91 ± 0.50	5.90 ± 0.50	6.07 ± 0.49	0.001	0.34342
2hPG (mmol/L)	8.40 ± 1.37	8.38 ± 1.36	8.62 ± 1.40	0.044	0.17389
HbA1c (%)	5.86 ± 0.36	5.83 ± 0.34	6.06 ± 0.47	0.000	0.56073
TC (mmol/L)	5.59 ± 1.07	5.58 ± 1.07	5.64 ± 1.05	0.517	0.0566
TG (mmol/L)	1.64 ± 0.97	1.63 ± 0.98	1.75 ± 0.87	0.139	0.1295
HDL-C (mmol/L)	1.39 ± 0.31	1.39 ± 0.32	1.33 ± 0.27	0.015	0.20266
LDL-C (mmol/L)	3.36 ± 0.89	3.35 ± 0.90	3.42 ± 0.85	0.347	0.07997
SUA (μmol/L)	321.8 ± 72.55	319.11 ± 71.28	342.82 ± 78.94	0.000	0.31526
FINS (mU/L)	9.54 ± 4.71	9.41 ± 4.58	10.55 ± 5.54	0.016	0.22429
HOMA-IR	2.52 ± 1.27	2.48 ± 1.26	2.84 ± 1.45	0.004	0.26503
HOMA-β	81.82 ± 43.3	81.26 ± 41.47	86.2 ± 55.57	0.289	0.10076
TyG index (2011)	8.82 ± 0.51	8.80 ± 0.51	8.93 ± 0.47	0.003	0.26509
TyG-BMI (2011)	230.3 ± 34.98	228.64 ± 34.25	243.27 ± 37.91	0.000	0.40497
TyG-WC (2011)	800.59 ± 100.3	796.31 ± 99.25	834.08 ± 102.50	0.000	0.37438
TyG index (2014)	8.83 ± 0.51	8.81 ± 0.50	9.00 ± 0.55	0.000	0.3615
TyG-BMI (2014)	233.40 ± 96.61	230.89 ± 96.30	251.49 ± 97.24	0.021	0.21287
TyG-WC (2014)	788.41 ± 103.09	782.12 ± 98.88	833.71 ± 120.50	0.000	0.46806

IFG: Impaired fasting glucose; IGT: Impaired glucose tolerance; TyG: Triglyceride-glucose; BMI: Body mass index; WC: Waist circumference; HC: Hip circumference; WHR: Waist-hip ratio; SBP: Systolic blood pressure; DBP: Diastolic blood pressure; FPG: Fasting plasma glucose; 2hPG: 2 hours post load plasma glucose; HbA1c: Glycated hemoglobin; TC: Total cholesterol; HDL-C: High-density lipoprotein cholesterol; LDL-C: Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol; SUA: Serum uric acid; FINS: Fasting serum insulin; HOMA-IR: Homeostasis model assessment-insulin resistance; HOMA-β: Homeostasis model assessment-beta.

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Table 2 Prevalence of diabetes in quartile of triglyceride-glucose index, n (%)

TyG index quartiles	Non-diabetes	Diabetes	Total	χ² value	P value
T1 group	305 (92.7)	24 (7.3)	329 (100)	8.448	0.038
T2 group	309 (89.0)	38 (11)	347 (100)
T3 group	290 (86.6)	45 (13.4)	335 (100)
T4 group	295 (86.5)	46 (13.5)	341 (100)
Total	1199 (88.7)	153 (11.3)	1352 (100)
χ² value for trend = 7.328, P value for trend = 0.007

TyG: Triglyceride-glucose.

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Table 3 Prevalence of diabetes in quartile of triglyceride-glucose-body mass index, n (%)

TyG-BMI quartiles	Non-diabetes	Diabetes	Total	χ² value	P value
B1 group	307 (92.2)	26 (7.8)	333 (100)	36.008	0.000
B2 group	314 (93.2)	23 (6.8)	337 (100)
B3 group	303 (89.4)	36 (10.6)	339 (100)
B4 group	274 (80.1)	68 (19.9)	342 (100)
Total	1198 (88.7)	153 (11.3)	1351 (100)
χ² value for trend = 27.150, P value for trend = 0.000

TyG: Triglyceride-glucose; BMI: Body mass index.

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Table 4 Prevalence of diabetes in quartile of triglyceride-glucose-waist circumference, n (%)

TyG-WC quartiles	Non-diabetes	Diabetes	Total	χ² value	P value
W1 group	312 (92.6)	25 (7.4)	337 (100)	25.197	0.000
W2 group	304 (91.3)	29 (8.7)	333 (100)
W3 group	306 (89.5)	36 (10.5)	342 (100)
W4 group	277 (81.5)	63 (18.5)	340 (100)
Total	1199 (88.7)	153 (11.3)	1352 (100)
χ² value for trend = 20.821, P value for trend = 0.000

TyG: Triglyceride-glucose; WC: Waist circumference.

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Table 5 Cox regression analyses for the risk of diabetes

Variables	HR	95%CI	P value
TyG index	1.389	1.011-1.908	0.043
TyG-BMI	1.010	1.005-1.015	0.000
TyG-WC	1.003	1.001-1.005	0.001

TyG: Triglyceride-glucose; BMI: Body mass index; WC: Waist circumference; HR: Hazard ratio; CI: Confidence interval.

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Citation: Wang B, Liu MC, Liu XH, Zhu Z, Liu YS, Zhang TT, Li XY, Gao ZN. Using the triglyceride-glucose index and derived indexes to forecast progression from pre-diabetes to diabetes: A 3-year follow-up study. World J Diabetes 2026; 17(2): 114253
URL: https://www.wjgnet.com/1948-9358/full/v17/i2/114253.htm
DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.4239/wjd.v17.i2.114253