Analysis of risk factors and a prediction model for rebleeding in liver cirrhosis patients with esophagogastric variceal bleeding

doi:10.4254/wjh.123456

Advanced Search

BPG is committed to discovery and dissemination of knowledge

Home / Archive / Volume 18, Issue 9

This Article

(1)

(0)

(5)

Peer-Review Report of This Article

CrossCheck and Google Search of This Article

Academic Rules and Norms of This Article

Citation of this article

Corresponding Author of This Article

Research Domain of This Article

Article-Type of This Article

Open-Access Policy of This Article

Times Cited Counts in Google of This Article

Journal Information of This Article

Publication Name

World Journal of Hepatology

ISSN

1948-5182

Publisher of This Article

Baishideng Publishing Group Inc, 7041 Koll Center Parkway, Suite 160, Pleasanton, CA 94566, USA

Retrospective Study

Copyright: ©Author(s) 2026. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license. No commercial re-use. See permissions. Published by Baishideng Publishing Group Inc.

World J Hepatol. Sep 27, 2026; 18(9): 123456
Published online Sep 27, 2026. doi: 10.4254/wjh.123456

Analysis of risk factors and a prediction model for rebleeding in liver cirrhosis patients with esophagogastric variceal bleeding

Ping-Ping Li, Xiao Zhong, Da-Ya Zhang, Fei-Hu Bai

Ping-Ping Li, Xiao Zhong, Da-Ya Zhang, Fei-Hu Bai, Department of Gastroenterology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Hainan Medical University, Haikou 570216, Hainan Province, China

Co-first authors: Ping-Ping Li and Xiao Zhong.

Author contributions: Li PP, Zhong X, and Zhang DY collected data; Li PP, Zhang DY and Bai FH designed the study and performed statistical analysis; Li PP, Zhong X, Zhang DY and Bai FH drafted the manuscript, recruited participants; all authors read and approved the final manuscript; Li PP and Zhong X have made crucial and indispensable contributions towards the completion of the project and thus qualified as the co-first authors of the paper.

AI contribution statement: Not applicable, as no AI tools were used in the research or manuscript preparation.

Supported by the 2025 Hainan Flexible Talent Introduction and Innovation Platform Performance Assessment; the Academic Improvement Support Program of Hainan Medical University, No. XSTS2025001 and No. XSTS2026051; Funded Project of the 2026 Undergraduate Scientific Research and Innovation Training Program, Hainan Medical University, No. RZ2600001129; the National Clinical Key Specialty Capacity Building Project, No. 202330; Hainan Provincial Education Reform Project, No. hnjg2024-67; and the Joint Scientific and Technological Innovation Project of Health Commission of Hainan Province, No. WSJK2024MS150.

Institutional review board statement: The protocol was approved by the institutional ethics committee of the Second Hospital of Hainan Medical University (No. 2026-K20-01) and performed per Helsinki’s Declaration.

Informed consent statement: All participants provided written informed consent for data collection and storage.

Conflict-of-interest statement: The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

Data sharing statement: The datasets used and/or analyzed in this study can be reasonably obtained from the corresponding author.

Corresponding author: Fei-Hu Bai, Chief Physician, Department of Gastroenterology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Hainan Medical University, No. 368 Yehai Avenue, Longhua District, Haikou 570216, Hainan Province, China. hy214654@muhn.edu.cn

Received: May 25, 2026
Revised: July 21, 2026
Accepted: August 28, 2026
Published online: September 27, 2026
Processing time: 117 Days and 16.2 Hours

Core Tip

Core Tip: This single-center retrospective study enrolled 130 cirrhotic patients with esophagogastric variceal bleeding (EGVB) in 2024 and conducted a one-year follow-up, including 62 rebleeding cases and 68 non-rebleeding cases, aiming to address the high mortality of EGVB rebleeding and the lack of simple non-invasive predictive tools for Hainan population. The study identified four independent risk factors for rebleeding -decreased red blood cell, elevated blood urea nitrogen, ascites, and thickening of the gallbladder wall (TGBW); notably, TGBW was originally validated as a novel non-invasive imaging predictor with an odds ratio value of 0.199 (P < 0.001). A reliable nomogram prediction model was further constructed with an original area under the curve (AUC) of 0.853 and a bootstrap internal validation AUC of 0.855, presenting favorable calibration and clinical applicability. Since this model merely requires routine blood tests and ultrasonic indicators, it can realize convenient and non-invasive risk stratification to guide secondary clinical prevention for local patients. Nevertheless, this research is limited by its retrospective nature, single-center setting and relatively small sample size; and further multi-center prospective studies are required to verify the generalizability of the model.