Development and validation of a predictive model for the pathological upgrading of gastric low-grade intraepithelial neoplasia

Table 1 Baseline characteristics of patients with positive and negative pathologic upgrade, n (%)

	Group	Negative (n = 78)	Positive (n = 93)	Statistics	P value
General characteristics	Sex, male/female	47/31	74/19	7.648	0.006
	Age, years	59.33 ± 12.45	61.85 ± 9.90	-1.44	0.151
	BMI, kg/m2	23.2 [21.6, 25.2]	24.4 [22.7, 25.9]	3040.5	0.069
	Smoker	22 (28.21)	37 (39.78)	2.517	0.113
	Alcohol drinker	28 (35.90)	35 (37.63)	0.055	0.815
	13C+	8 (10.26)	8 (8.60)	0.214	0.644
	Taking aspirin	4 (5.13)	5 (5.38)	< 0.001	1
	CEA, μg/L	1.64 [1.20, 2.89]	2.23 [1.58, 3.02]	2732.5	0.025
	CA199, U/mL	8.25 [5.05, 11.58]	9.44 [5.79, 13.98]	3011	0.179
	AFP, μg/L	2.72 [2.16, 3.80]	2.58 [1.92, 3.54]	3683.5	0.169
	CA125, U/mL	9.40 [7.63, 10.80]	9.03 [6.74, 12.95]	2395.5	0.936
White light endoscopy characteristics	Size	1.85 ± 1.16	2.52 ± 1.37	15.448	< 0.001
	Location			1.801	0.772
	Cardia	5 (6.41)	9 (9.68)
	Fundus	1 (1.28)	2 (2.15)
	Corpus	10 (12.82)	16 (17.20)
	Horns	18 (23.08)	21 (22.58)
	Antrum	44 (56.41)	45 (48.39)
	Atrophy	21 (26.29)	43 (46.24)	6.757	0.009
	Biopsy cores	2.0 (1.0,3.0)	2.0 (1.0,3.0)	3499.000	0.678
	White coating	11 (14.10)	28 (30.11)	6.172	0.013
	Ulceration	1 (1.28)	12 (12.90)	8.156	0.004
	Erosion	37 (47.44)	52 (55.91)	1.222	0.269
	Congested lesion	41 (52.56)	59 (63.44)	2.067	0.151
	Bleeding	5 (6.41)	11 (11.83)	1.468	0.226
	Paris classification			0.663	0.416
	I/III	7 (8.97)	12 (12.90)
	II	71 (91.03)	81 (87.10)
	Surface roughness	43 (55.13)	59 (63.44)	1.218	0.270
	Bile reflux	8 (10.26)	9 (9.68)	0.016	0.900
Biopsy pathology	Intestinal metaplasia	44 (56.41)	79 (84.95)	17.109	< 0.001
	Atrophy	7 (8.97)	30 (32.26)	13.563	< 0.001
	Chronic inflammation	78 (100.00)	92 (98.92)	< 0.001	1
	Acute inflammation	30 (38.46)	39 (41.94)	0.213	0.645
	HP in pathology	10 (12.82)	14 (15.05)	0.175	0.675
ME characteristics	ME	76 (97.44)	79 (84.95)
	Demarcation line	54 (69.23)	65 (69.89)	2.738	0.098
	MV			51.627	< 0.001
	Regular	63 (80.77)	20 (25.32)
	Irregular/absent	13 (16.67)	59 (74.68)
	MS			11.115	0.001
	Regular	24 (31.58)	7 (8.86)
	Irregular/absent	52 (68.42)	72 (91.14)
	White opaque substance	17 (21.79)	35 (37.63)	8.36	0.004
	Light blue crest	15 (19.23)	38 (40.86)	13.85	< 0.001
	White globular appearance	0	4 (4.30)	3.95	0.047

BMI: Body mass index; CEA: Carcinoembryonic antigen; CA: Carbohydrate antigen; AFP: Alpha fetoprotein; HP: Helicobacter pylori; ME: Magnifying endoscopy; MV: Microvascular; MS: Microsurface.

Table 2 Stepwise logistic regression of predictors for pathologic upgrade in gastric low-grade intraepithelial neoplasia

	Coef	SE (coef)	OR (95%CI)	P value
Intercept	-4.223	0.808	0.015 (0.002-0.066)	1.757-10
Sex, male	0.916	0.478	2.499 (0.973-6.812)	0.057
Ulceration, yes	2.665	1.343	14.372 (1.199-534.717)1	0.032
MV, irregular/absent	2.145	0.436	8.539 (3.687-21.259)	< 0.001
MS, irregular/absent	1.297	0.564	3.659 (1.234-12.251)	0.019
White opaque substance, yes	0.570	0.442	1.769 (0.731-4.330)	0.205
Light blue crest, yes	0.589	0.454	1.801 (0.723-4.530)	0.205
Intestinal metaplasia, yes	1.469	0.516	4.344 (1.594-13.015)	0.004

¹Correction for sparse data.

Coef: Coefficient; SE: Standard error; OR: Odds ratio; CI: Confidence interval; MV: Microvascular; MS: Microsurface.