Gatenby P, Bhattacharjee S, Wall C, Caygill C, Watson A. Risk stratification for malignant progression in Barrett’s esophagus: Gender, age, duration and year of surveillance. World J Gastroenterol 2016; 22(48): 10592-10600 [PMID: 28082811 DOI: 10.3748/wjg.v22.i48.10592]
Corresponding Author of This Article
Piers Gatenby, MA MD FRCS, Division of Surgery and Interventional Science, UCL, Royal Free Campus, Pond Street, NW32QG London, United Kingdom. p.gatenby@ucl.ac.uk
Research Domain of This Article
Gastroenterology & Hepatology
Article-Type of This Article
Retrospective Cohort Study
Open-Access Policy of This Article
This article is an open-access article which was selected by an in-house editor and fully peer-reviewed by external reviewers. It is distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/
World J Gastroenterol. Dec 28, 2016; 22(48): 10592-10600 Published online Dec 28, 2016. doi: 10.3748/wjg.v22.i48.10592
Table 1 Annual incidence of adenocarcinoma and dysplasia dependent on year of surveillance
Calendar years
Total patient-years follow-up
Adenocarcinoma
High-grade dysplasia and adenocarcinoma
All grades of dysplasia and adenocarcinoma
Number of cases
Annual incidence
Number of cases
Annual incidence
Number of cases
Annual incidence
1974-1989
237
0
0.00%
0
0.00%
1
0.46%
1990-1994
753
1
0.13%
1
0.13%
9
1.33%
1995-1999
1950
19
0.97%
21
1.09%
76
4.70%
2000-2004
2058
15
0.73%
23
1.12%
60
3.63%
2005-
1477
19
1.29%
25
1.17%
44
3.66%
Total
6474
54
0.83%
70
1.09%
190
3.54%
Table 2 Annual incidence of adenocarcinoma and dysplasia dependent on age at surveillance
Age at surveillance
Total patient-years follow-up
Adenocarcinoma
High-grade dysplasia and adenocarcinoma
All grades of dysplasia and adenocarcinoma
Number of cases
Annual incidence
Number of cases
Annual incidence
Number of cases
Annual incidence
< 40
236
0
0.00%
1
0.42%
4
1.89%
40-49
740
0
0.00%
2
0.27%
15
2.30%
50-59
1602
6
0.37%
9
0.56%
39
2.82%
60-69
2154
15
0.70%
20
0.94%
63
3.66%
70-79
1464
20
1.37%
26
1.81%
52
4.49%
80+
278
13
4.67%
12
4.34%
17
7.18%
Total
6474
54
0.83%
70
1.09%
190
3.54%
Table 3 Annual incidence of adenocarcinoma and dysplasia dependent on duration of surveillance
Duration of surveillance (yr)
Total patient-years follow-up
Adenocarcinoma
High-grade dysplasia and adenocarcinoma
All grades of dysplasia and adenocarcinoma
Number of cases
Annual incidence
Number of cases
Annual incidence
Number of cases
Annual incidence
1-2
1848
14
0.76%
19
1.04%
72
4.47%
3-4
1235
9
0.73%
11
0.90%
41
4.02%
5-9
1587
20
1.26%
27
1.72%
54
4.47%
10+
668
11
1.65%
13
1.96%
23
4.52%
Table 4 Logistic regression results
Factor
Development of all grades of dysplasia and cancer
Development of high-grade dysplasia or cancer
Development of cancer
Age
P = 0.187
P = 0.400
P = 0.034
Segment length
P = 0.043
P = 0.121
P = 0.129
Most recent biopsy results
P = 0.058
P = 0.047
First two biopsy results
P < 0.001
Citation: Gatenby P, Bhattacharjee S, Wall C, Caygill C, Watson A. Risk stratification for malignant progression in Barrett’s esophagus: Gender, age, duration and year of surveillance. World J Gastroenterol 2016; 22(48): 10592-10600