Incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma in outpatients with cirrhosis in Brazil: A 10-year retrospective cohort study

Table 1 Demographic and clinical characteristics of cirrhotic outpatients attending a hospital clinic in the South of Brazil n (%)

Characteristic	HCC	Without HCC	P value
	n = 75	n = 378
Age (yr)	54.9 ± 10.7	53.2 ± 12.2	0.23
Male sex	44 (58.7)	217 (57.4)	0.90
Cirrhosis etiology			0.27
HCV	35 (46.7)	132 (34.9)
Alcohol	16 (21.3)	93 (24.6)
HCV + alcohol	15 (20.0)	74 (19.6)
HBV	2 (2.7)	3 (0.8)
HBV + alcohol	0 (0.0)	5 (1.3)
NAFLD	1 (1.3)	7 (1.8)
Cryptogenic	1 (1.3)	12 (3.2)
Other	5 (6.7)	52 (13.8)
Baseline Child-Pugh	n = 74	n = 377	0.81
A	45 (60.8)	229 (60.7)
B	22 (29.7)	119 (31.6)
C	7 (9.5)	29 (7.7)
End-of-study Child-Pugh	n = 75	n = 367	0.38
A	30 (40.0)	168 (45.8)
B	25 (33.3)	127 (34.6)
C	20 (26.7)	72 (19.6)
Baseline MELD	n = 60	n = 292
	11.2 (6; 25)	12.0 (6 ;27)	0.12
End-of-study MELD	n = 71	n = 330
	13.4 (6; 31)	13.1 (6; 45)	0.65
Baseline AFP, ng/mL	n = 69	n = 261
	6.1 (3.7; 19.0)	4.0 (1.5; 8.0)	0.01
End-of-study AFP, ng/mL	n = 57	n = 286
	16 (4.9; 187.0)	4.0 (2.5; 7.8)	< 0.001

Other, autoimmune hepatitis, primary biliary cholangitis, hemochromatosis, primary sclerosing cholangitis, alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency; MELD and AFP expressed as median and interquartile range (25%-75%). HCV: Hepatitis C virus; HBV: Hepatitis B virus; NAFLD: Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease; MELD: Model for End-Stage Liver Disease; AFP: Alpha-fetoprotein.

Table 2 Pre-test probability, likelihood ratio, post-test probability, sensitivity, and specificity of alpha-fetoprotein ranges to predict hepatocellular carcinoma

AFP level (ng/mL)	Pre-test probability	LR+	Post-test probability	Sensitivity	Specificity
< 6.0	16.60%	0.50	9.1%	66.7%	66.3%
6-19.9	16.60%	1.00	16.6%	45.6%	89.3%
20-50	16.60%	1.31	20.8%	35.1%	96.1%
> 50	16.60%	10.03	66.8%	35.1%	96.1%

LR: Likelihood ratio; AFP: Alpha-fetoprotein.