Predictors of common bile duct lithiasis in laparoscopic era

Table 1 Clinicopathologic characteristics of patients of both groups.

	Group A	Group B
Number	36	42
Female	21	25
Male	15	17
Age (yr)	43-88	46-89
Positive history
Fever	3	3
Jaundice	8	9
Chills	1	1
Pancreatitis	1	1
Total	13	14
Ultrasonographic CBD diameter ≥ 10 mm	33	37
SGOT ≥ 2 normal	21	26
dBil ≥ 2 normal	15	17
ALP ≥ 2 normal	18	22

Table 2 Mean values and standard deviation of liver function tests.

	Group A	Group B
SGOT
Mean	197 U/L	189 U/L
Standard deviation	38 U/L	35 U/L
Bilirubin
Mean	5.2 mg/100 mL	4.1 mg/100 mL
Standard deviation	2.2 mg/100 mL	1.8 mg/100 mL
ALP
Mean	540 U/L	469 U/L
Standard deviation	87 U/L	81 U/L

Table 3 Ultrasonographic findings.

	Group A	Group B
CBD diameter <10	3	5
CBD diameter ≥ 10	33	37
CBD diameter
Median	10.5	11
Range	5-21	5-23
Choledocholithiasis
Positive	11	14
Suspected	18	21

Table 4 Short and long term results.

	Group A	Group B
Number of patients	36	42
Patients with CBD lithiasis	28 (121, 162)	32
Successful stone extraction	24/28 (85.7%)	27/32 (84.3%)
Method failure	4/28 (14.3%)	5/32 (15.7%)
Conversion to other procedure	4/28 (14.3%)	5/32 (15.7%)
Total morbidity	5/28 (17.8%)	6/32 (18.7%)
Death	13	14
Mean hospital stay (d)	7,4 (52, 111)	9
Stones remaining during follow up	1	1
CBD stenosis	0	1

¹Direct CBD exploration.

²Trancystic duct CBD exploration.

³On the 40th postoperative day at home. ⁴Acute myocardial infarction 2 d after endoscopy.

Table 5 Complications.

	Group A	Group B
Cholangitis	0	1
Mild pancreatitis	0	2
Bile collection	0	1
Biliary fistula	11	0
Pulmonary embolism	1	0
Death	12	13
Sepsis	0	1
Abdominal wall hematoma	2	0
Upper G.I. hemorrhage	0	1
Cardiovascular	1	0

¹After direct CBD exploration.

²On 40^th postoperative day at home.

³Acute myocardial infarction 2 d after endoscopy.

Table 6 Performance of predictors in univariate analysis.

Predictor	Number of patients (%)	PPV (%)	NPV (%)
CBD ≥ 10 mm	70/78 (89.7)	74	87.5
SGOT ≥ 2 normal	32/78 (41)	46	97
dBil ≥ 2 normal	33/78 (42.3)	48	97
ALP ≥ 2 normal	40/78 (51.2)	42	95

Table 7 Building the model via forward stepwise regression.

	Summary of stepwise regression; variable: lithiasis. Forward stepwise P to enter: 0.05, P to remove: 0.05
	Steps	Degrees of freedom	F to remove	P to remove	F to enter	P to enter	Effect status
History	Step 1	1			0.18442	0.6688	Out
CBD_10		1			15.9619	0.0001	Out
SGOT		1			48.4107	1.05E-09	Out
Bil		1			63.4082	1.3E-11	Entered
ALP		1			55.3074	1.31E-10	Out
Bil	Step 2	1	63.4082	1.29624E-11			In
CBD_10		1			10.6347	0.0016	Entered
SGOT		1			9.16433	0.0033	Out
History		1			3.33518	0.0717	Out
ALP		1			7.98087	0.0060	Out
Bil	Step 3	1	54.81658	1.61316E-10			In
CBD_10		1	10.6347	0.0016709			In
SGOT		1			8.23132	0.0053	Entered
History		1			0.31224	0.5779	Out
ALP		1			6.52043	0.0127	Out
Bil	Step 4	1	17.77605	6.94475E-05			In
CBD_10		1	9.667935	0.0026617			In
SGOT		1	8.231323	0.0053630			In
History		1			0.39927	0.5294	Out
ALP		1			4.50211	0.0372	Entered
Bil	Step 5	1	5.631729	0.0202726			In
CBD_10		1	8.529480	0.0046459			In
SGOT		1	6.148871	0.0154574			In
ALP		1	4.502116	0.0372471			In
History		1			0.62724	0.4309	Out