Published online Jul 7, 2023. doi: 10.3748/wjg.v29.i25.4072
Peer-review started: April 23, 2023
First decision: May 15, 2023
Revised: May 20, 2023
Accepted: June 2, 2023
Article in press: June 2, 2023
Published online: July 7, 2023
Processing time: 65 Days and 17.3 Hours
Acute bleeding due to esophageal varices (EVs) is a life-threatening complication in patients with cirrhosis. The diagnosis of EVs is mainly through upper gastrointestinal endoscopy, but the discomfort, contraindications and complications of gastrointestinal endoscopic screening reduce patient compliance.
To develop a safe, simple and non-invasive model to predict high risk EVs (HEVs) in patients with viral cirrhosis and identify patients who can be exempted from upper gastrointestinal endoscopy.
To establish a non-invasive prediction model based on spleen stiffness measurement (SSM) and live stiffness measurement (LSM) as an alternative to EVs screening.
Two hundred Chinese adults, from March 2020 to November 2022, were included at the Second Affiliated Hospital of Xi’an Jiaotong University. Required data were collected by the medical records, and the EVs types of patients were determined by upper gastrointestinal endoscopy and the Baveno VI consensus. The effect of each parameter on HEVs was analyzed by univariate and multivariate analyses, and a non-invasive prediction model was established, and then the effect of each parameter on HEVs was analyzed by univariate and multivariate analyses, and a non-invasive prediction model was established.
After univariate and multivariate analyses, SSM and LSM were used to established a prediction model. The new non-invasive model was better than other four models to predict HEVs in patients with viral cirrhosis.
The new model is reliable in predicting HEVs and can be used as an alternative to routine upper gastrointestinal endoscopy screening, which is helpful for clinical decision making.
In the future, we will try to apply the new model to predict HEVs in patients with viral cirrhosis.