Yao JY, Jiang Y, Ke J, Lu Y, Hu J, Zhi M. Development of a prognostic model for one-year surgery risk in Crohn’s disease patients: A retrospective study. World J Gastroenterol 2020; 26(5): 524-534 [PMID: 32089628 DOI: 10.3748/wjg.v26.i5.524]
Corresponding Author of This Article
Min Zhi, MD, PhD, Doctor, Professor, Department of Gastroenterology, The Sixth Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-Sen University, No. 26, Yuancun Second Road, Guangzhou 510655, Guangdong Province, China. doctorzhimin@163.com
Research Domain of This Article
Gastroenterology & Hepatology
Article-Type of This Article
Retrospective Study
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Yao JY, Jiang Y, Ke J, Lu Y, Hu J, Zhi M. Development of a prognostic model for one-year surgery risk in Crohn’s disease patients: A retrospective study. World J Gastroenterol 2020; 26(5): 524-534 [PMID: 32089628 DOI: 10.3748/wjg.v26.i5.524]
World J Gastroenterol. Feb 7, 2020; 26(5): 524-534 Published online Feb 7, 2020. doi: 10.3748/wjg.v26.i5.524
Development of a prognostic model for one-year surgery risk in Crohn’s disease patients: A retrospective study
Jia-Yin Yao, Yi Jiang, Jia Ke, Yi Lu, Jun Hu, Min Zhi
Jia-Yin Yao, Yi Jiang, Min Zhi, Department of Gastroenterology, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Colorectal and Pelvic Floor Diseases, The Sixth Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510655, Guangdong Province, China
Jia Ke, Department of Colorectal Surgery, The Sixth Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510655, Guangdong Province, China
Yi Lu, Department of Anesthesiology, Guangzhou Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Guangzhou 510130, Guangdong Province, China
Jun Hu, Guangdong Institute of Gastroenterology, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Colorectal and Pelvic Floor Diseases, The Sixth Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510655, Guangdong Province, China
Author contributions: All authors have made a significant contribution to this research article; Yao JY contributed to study concept and design, data analysis, and manuscript drafting; Jiang Y contributed to data acquisition and analysis; Hu J contributed to study concept and design; Ke J contributed to critical revision of the manuscript; Zhi M contributed to final approval of the version to be submitted; all authors approved the final manuscript as well as the authorship list.
Supported bythe National Natural Science Foundation of China, No. 81900490, No. 81670477, and No. 81600419.
Institutional review board statement: This study was approved by the Ethics Committee of Sun Yat-Sen University (2019ZSLYEC-058) and was permitted by the Chinese Clinical Trial Registry (ChiCTR1900025751).
Informed consent statement: Patients were not required to give informed consent to the study because the analysis used anonymous clinical data that were obtained after each patient agreed to treatment by written consent.
Conflict-of-interest statement: We have no financial relationships to disclose.
Data sharing statement: No additional data are available.
Corresponding author: Min Zhi, MD, PhD, Doctor, Professor, Department of Gastroenterology, The Sixth Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-Sen University, No. 26, Yuancun Second Road, Guangzhou 510655, Guangdong Province, China. doctorzhimin@163.com
Received: November 19, 2019 Peer-review started: November 19, 2019 First decision: December 12, 2019 Revised: January 6, 2020 Accepted: January 15, 2020 Article in press: January 15, 2020 Published online: February 7, 2020 Processing time: 79 Days and 22.3 Hours
ARTICLE HIGHLIGHTS
Research background
Patients with progressive Crohn’s disease (CD) should be given accelerated therapy.
Research motivation
Predicting CD-related early surgery risk is challenging and important in treatment strategy monitoring.
Research objectives
This study aimed to establish a model to predict CD-related early surgery.
Research methods
This was a retrospective study collecting data from CD patients from January 1, 2012 to December 31, 2016. A prognostic model was established and further validated. A nomogram was developed to facilitate clinical practice.
Research results
A total of 1002 eligible patients were enrolled, and 24.25% received intestinal surgery within 1 year after diagnosis. Disease behavior, smoking, body mass index and C-reactive protein level at diagnosis, previous perianal or intestinal surgery, maximum bowel wall thickness, use of biologics, and exclusive enteral nutrition were identified as independent significant factors associated with early intestinal surgery.
Research conclusions
This prognostic model can effectively predict CD-related early surgery, serving as the basis for tailored therapy.
Research perspectives
Future studies with a broader population base and more associated factors including endoscopy estimation and genetic markers are needed to perfect this model.
