Case Control Study
Copyright ©The Author(s) 2019. Published by Baishideng Publishing Group Inc. All rights reserved.
World J Gastroenterol. May 21, 2019; 25(19): 2327-2337
Published online May 21, 2019. doi: 10.3748/wjg.v25.i19.2327
Risk factors for progression to acute-on-chronic liver failure during severe acute exacerbation of chronic hepatitis B virus infection
Ling Yuan, Bai-Mei Zeng, Lu-Lu Liu, Yi Ren, Yan-Qing Yang, Jun Chu, Ying Li, Fang-Wan Yang, Yi-Huai He, Shi-De Lin
Ling Yuan, Bai-Mei Zeng, Yan-Qing Yang, Jun Chu, Ying Li, Fang-Wan Yang, Yi-Huai He, Shi-De Lin, Department of Infectious Diseases, Affiliated Hospital of Zunyi Medical University, Zunyi 563003, Guizhou Province, China
Lu-Lu Liu, Department of Gastroenterology, Jiangsu Province Hospital, Pukou Branch, Nanjing 210000, Jiangsu Province, China
Yi Ren, Department of Respiratory Medicine, the Fifth People’s Hospital of Chongqing, Chongqing 400062, China
Author contributions: Yuan L and Zeng BM contributed equally to this work; Yuan L, Zeng BM, Liu LL, Ren Y, Chu J, Yang YQ, and Lin SD performed the research; Yuan L and Zeng BM wrote the manuscript; He YH, Yang FW, Li Ying, and Lin SD performed the biostatistic analysis; Zeng BM, Liu LL, Ren Y, Chu J, Yang YQ, and Lin SD analyzed the data; all authors discussed the results and commented on the manuscript.
Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China, No. 81460124 and No. 81860114.
Institutional review board statement: This study was approved by the Institutional Review Board of Affiliated Hospital of Zunyi Medical University, Guizhou Province, China.
Informed consent statement: All patients were informed of the use of their data in writing for clinical research purposes and accepted.
Conflict-of-interest statement: The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest in this study.
Open-Access: This article is an open-access article which was selected by an in-house editor and fully peer-reviewed by external reviewers. It is distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/
Corresponding author: Shi-De Lin, MD, Chief Doctor, Occupational Physician, Professor, Department of Infectious Diseases, Affiliated Hospital of Zunyi Medical University, 201 Dalian street, Zunyi 563003, Guizhou Province, China. linshide6@zmc.edu.cn
Telephone: +86-851-28609183 Fax: +86-851-28609183
Received: February 14, 2019
Peer-review started: February 17, 2019
First decision: March 20, 2019
Revised: March 29, 2019
Accepted: April 19, 2019
Article in press: April 20, 2019
Published online: May 21, 2019
Processing time: 95 Days and 3 Hours
Abstract
BACKGROUND

Acute exacerbation in patients with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection results in different severities of liver injury. The risk factors related to progression to hepatic decompensation (HD) and acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) in patients with severe acute exacerbation (SAE) of chronic HBV infection remain unknown.

AIM

To identify risk factors related to progression to HD and ACLF in compensated patients with SAE of chronic HBV infection.

METHODS

The baseline characteristics of 164 patients with SAE of chronic HBV infection were retrospectively reviewed. Independent risk factors associated with progression to HD and ACLF were identified. The predictive values of our previously established prediction model in patients with acute exacerbation (AE model) and the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score in predicting the development of ACLF were evaluated.

RESULTS

Among 164 patients with SAE, 83 (50.6%) had compensated liver cirrhosis (LC), 43 had progression to HD without ACLF, and 29 had progression to ACLF within 28 d after admission. Independent risk factors associated with progression to HD were LC and low alanine aminotransferase. Independent risk factors for progression to ACLF were LC, high MELD score, high aspartate aminotransferase (AST) levels, and low prothrombin activity (PTA). The area under the receiver operating characteristic of the AE model [0.844, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.779-0.896] was significantly higher than that of MELD score (0.690, 95%CI: 0.613-0.760, P < 0.05) in predicting the development of ACLF.

CONCLUSION

In patients with SAE of chronic HBV infection, LC is an independent risk factor for progression to both HD and ACLF. High MELD score, high AST, and low PTA are associated with progression to ACLF. The AE model is a better predictor of ACLF development in patients with SAE than MELD score.

Keywords: Acute-on-chronic liver failure; Chronic hepatitis B; Hepatic decompensation; Liver cirrhosis; Risk factors; Severe acute exacerbation

Core tip: The risk factors related to progression in patients with severe acute exacerbation (SAE) of chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection remain unknown. This is the largest study to identify the risk factors related to progression to hepatic decompensation (HD) and acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) in compensated patients with SAE of chronic HBV infection. We found that liver cirrhosis is an independent risk factor for progression to both HD and ACLF. High model for end-stage liver disease score, high aspartate aminotransferase, and low prothrombin activity are associated with progression to ACLF.