Published online Dec 28, 2015. doi: 10.3748/wjg.v21.i48.13555
Peer-review started: April 24, 2015
First decision: July 10, 2015
Revised: July 23, 2015
Accepted: September 28, 2015
Article in press: September 30, 2015
Published online: December 28, 2015
Processing time: 245 Days and 15.5 Hours
AIM: To assess the association of a surrogate of fatty liver disease (FLD) with incident type-2 diabetes, coronary heart disease, and all-cause mortality.
METHODS: In a prospective population-based study on 1822 middle-aged adults, stratified to gender, we used an algorithm of fatty liver index (FLI) to identify associations with outcomes. An index ≥ 60 indicated the presence of FLD. In Cox regression models, adjusted for age, smoking status, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and systolic blood pressure, we assessed the predictive value of FLI for incident diabetes, coronary heart disease (CHD), and all-cause mortality.
RESULTS: At a mean 8 year follow-up, 218 and 285 incident cases of diabetes and CHD, respectively, and 193 deaths were recorded. FLD was significantly associated in each gender with blood pressure, total cholesterol, apolipoprotein B, uric acid, and C-reactive protein; weakly with fasting glucose; and inversely with high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol and sex hormone-binding globulin. In adjusted Cox models, FLD was (with a 5-fold HR) the major determinant of diabetes development. Analyses further disclosed significant independent prediction of CHD by FLD in combined gender [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.72, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.17-2.53] and men (HR = 2.35, 95%CI: 1.25-4.43). Similarly-adjusted models for all-cause mortality proved, however, not to confer risk, except for a tendency in prediabetics and diabetic women.
CONCLUSION: A surrogate of FLD conferred significant high risk of diabetes and coronary heart disease, independent of some metabolic syndrome traits. All-cause mortality was not associated with FLD, except likely in the prediabetic state. Such a FLI may reliably be used in epidemiologic studies.
Core tip: We prospectively assessed in 1822 adults the association between a validated surrogate of fatty liver disease (FLD) and the incidence of type-2 diabetes, coronary heart disease (CHD), and all-cause mortality by stratifying to gender and using adjusted Cox regression models. At a mean 8 year follow-up, FLD was the major determinant of developing diabetes and was a significant predictor of CHD. Similarly-adjusted models for all-cause mortality did not confer risk, except for slightly in prediabetics and diabetic women. Involvement of circulating lipoprotein(a) in autoimmune activation may be an underlying mechanism. Such a FLD surrogate may be used in epidemiologic studies.