Brief Article
Copyright ©2013 Baishideng Publishing Group Co., Limited. All rights reserved.
World J Gastroenterol. Nov 28, 2013; 19(44): 8093-8098
Published online Nov 28, 2013. doi: 10.3748/wjg.v19.i44.8093
“Metroticket” predictor for assessing liver transplantation to treat hepatocellular carcinoma: A single-center analysis in mainland China
Jian-Yong Lei, Wen-Tao Wang, Lu-Nan Yan
Jian-Yong Lei, Wen-Tao Wang, Lu-Nan Yan, Liver Transplantation Center, West China Hospital of Sichuan University, Chengdu 610041, Sichuan Province, China
Author contributions: Wang WT proposed the study; Lei JY and Wang WT performed the research and wrote the first draft; Lei JY collected and analyzed the data; all authors contributed to the design and interpretation of the study and to further drafts.
Correspondence to: Wen-Tao Wang, MD, PhD, Liver Transplantation Center, West China Hospital of Sichuan University, Chengdu 610041, Sichuan Province, China. zzphuaxiyiyuanno1@163.com
Telephone: +86-28-85422867 Fax: +86-28-85422867
Received: September 10, 2013
Revised: October 17, 2013
Accepted: November 1, 2013
Published online: November 28, 2013
Processing time: 91 Days and 22.3 Hours
Abstract

AIM: To validate the “Metroticket” predictor using a large cohort of liver transplantation (LT) patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in China.

METHODS: In total, 230 cases of LT for HCC treatment at our center, from July 2000 to August 2008, were included in the present study. The predicted 1-, 3- and 5-year post-LT survival rates were calculated using the Metroticket model (http://89.96.76.14/metroticket/calculator/). The predicted and observed long-term survival rates were then compared and analyzed.

RESULTS: The predicted survival rates for all 230 cases, as calculated by the Metroticket model, were 64.7% and 56.2% at 3 and 5 years, respectively, and the observed survival rates for these patients were 71.3% and 57.8%, respectively. For the 23 cases with macrovascular invasion, the predicted 5-year survival rate was 43.5%, whereas the observed 5-year survival rate was only 8.7%. For the 42 cases with microvascular invasion but an absence of macrovascular invasion, the predicted 5-year survival rate was 44.9%, and the observed 5-year survival rate was 50%. For the remaining 165 patients without any vascular invasion, the predicted 5-year survival rate was 65.8%, and the observed 5-year survival rate was 66.7%.

CONCLUSION: The Metroticket model can be used to accurately predict survival in HCC-related LT cases with an absence of macrovascular invasion.

Keywords: Metroticket, Model, Survival, Hepatocellular carcinoma, Liver transplantation

Core tip: The aim of our study was to validate the “Metroticket” predictor using a large cohort of liver transplantation (LT) patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The predicted survival rates for all 230 cases, as calculated by the Metroticket model, were 64.7% and 56.2% at 3 and 5 years, respectively, and the observed survival rates for these patients were 71.3% and 62.2%, respectively. For the 23 cases with macrovascular invasion, the predicted 5-year survival rate was 43.5%, whereas the observed 5-year survival rate was only 8.7%. The Metroticket model can be used to accurately predict survival in HCC-related LT cases with an absence of macrovascular invasion.