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Wang CK, Chang CY, Chu TW, Liang YJ. Using Machine Learning to Identify the Relationships between Demographic, Biochemical, and Lifestyle Parameters and Plasma Vitamin D Concentration in Healthy Premenopausal Chinese Women. Life (Basel) 2023; 13:2257. [PMID: 38137858 PMCID: PMC10744461 DOI: 10.3390/life13122257] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/23/2023] [Revised: 11/15/2023] [Accepted: 11/22/2023] [Indexed: 12/24/2023] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Vitamin D plays a vital role in maintaining homeostasis and enhancing the absorption of calcium, an essential component for strengthening bones and preventing osteoporosis. There are many factors known to relate to plasma vitamin D concentration (PVDC). However, most of these studies were performed with traditional statistical methods. Nowadays, machine learning methods (Mach-L) have become new tools in medical research. In the present study, we used four Mach-L methods to explore the relationships between PVDC and demographic, biochemical, and lifestyle factors in a group of healthy premenopausal Chinese women. Our goals were as follows: (1) to evaluate and compare the predictive accuracy of Mach-L and MLR, and (2) to establish a hierarchy of the significance of the aforementioned factors related to PVDC. METHODS Five hundred ninety-three healthy Chinese women were enrolled. In total, there were 35 variables recorded, including demographic, biochemical, and lifestyle information. The dependent variable was 25-OH vitamin D (PVDC), and all other variables were the independent variables. Multiple linear regression (MLR) was regarded as the benchmark for comparison. Four Mach-L methods were applied (random forest (RF), stochastic gradient boosting (SGB), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and elastic net). Each method would produce several estimation errors. The smaller these errors were, the better the model was. RESULTS Pearson's correlation, age, glycated hemoglobin, HDL-cholesterol, LDL-cholesterol, and hemoglobin were positively correlated to PVDC, whereas eGFR was negatively correlated to PVDC. The Mach-L methods yielded smaller estimation errors for all five parameters, which indicated that they were better methods than the MLR model. After averaging the importance percentage from the four Mach-L methods, a rank of importance could be obtained. Age was the most important factor, followed by plasma insulin level, TSH, spouse status, LDH, and ALP. CONCLUSIONS In a healthy Chinese premenopausal cohort using four different Mach-L methods, age was found to be the most important factor related to PVDC, followed by plasma insulin level, TSH, spouse status, LDH, and ALP.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chun-Kai Wang
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Zuoying Branch of Kaohsiung Armed Forces General Hospital, Kaohsiung 813, Taiwan;
| | - Ching-Yao Chang
- Graduate Institute of Applied Science and Engineering, Fu Jen Catholic University, New Taipei City 242, Taiwan;
| | - Ta-Wei Chu
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Tri-Service General Hospital, National Defense Medical Center, Chief Executive Officer’s Office, MJ Health Research Foundation, Taipei 114, Taiwan;
| | - Yao-Jen Liang
- Graduate Institute of Applied Science and Engineering, Fu Jen Catholic University, New Taipei City 242, Taiwan;
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Yang CC, Peng CH, Huang LY, Chen FY, Kuo CH, Wu CZ, Hsia TL, Lin CY. Comparison between multiple logistic regression and machine learning methods in prediction of abnormal thallium scans in type 2 diabetes. World J Clin Cases 2023; 11:7951-7964. [DOI: 10.12998/wjcc.v11.i33.7951] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/14/2023] [Revised: 10/23/2023] [Accepted: 11/13/2023] [Indexed: 11/24/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The prevalence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) has been increasing dramatically in recent decades, and 47.5% of T2D patients will die of cardiovascular disease. Thallium-201 myocardial perfusion scan (MPS) is a precise and non-invasive method to detect coronary artery disease (CAD). Most previous studies used traditional logistic regression (LGR) to evaluate the risks for abnormal CAD. Rapidly developing machine learning (Mach-L) techniques could potentially outperform LGR in capturing non-linear relationships.
AIM To aims were: (1) Compare the accuracy of Mach-L methods and LGR; and (2) Found the most important factors for abnormal TMPS.
METHODS 556 T2D were enrolled in the study (287 men and 269 women). Demographic and biochemistry data were used as independent variables and the sum of stressed score derived from MPS scan was the dependent variable. Subjects with a MPS score ≥ 9 were defined as abnormal. In addition to traditional LGR, classification and regression tree (CART), random forest, Naïve Bayes, and eXtreme gradient boosting were also applied. Sensitivity, specificity, accuracy and area under the receiver operation curve were used to evaluate the respective accuracy of LGR and Mach-L methods.
RESULTS Except for CART, the other Mach-L methods outperformed LGR, with gender, body mass index, age, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, glycated hemoglobin and smoking emerging as the most important factors to predict abnormal MPS.
CONCLUSION Four Mach-L methods are found to outperform LGR in predicting abnormal TMPS in Chinese T2D, with the most important risk factors being gender, body mass index, age, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, glycated hemoglobin and smoking.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chung-Chi Yang
- Division of Cardiovascular Medicine, Taoyuan Armed Forces General Hospital, Taoyuan City 32551, Taiwan
- Division of Cardiovascular, Tri-service General Hospital, Taipei City 114202, Taiwan
| | - Chung-Hsin Peng
- Department of Urology, Cardinal Tien Hospital, New Taipei City 23148, Taiwan
- School of Medicine, Fu-Jen Catholic University, New Taipei City 242062, Taiwan
| | - Li-Ying Huang
- Department of Internal Medicine, Department of Medical Education, School of Medicine, Fu Jen Catholic University Hospital, New Taipei City 243, Taiwan
- School of Medicine, College of Medicine, Fu Jen Catholic University, New Taipei City 243, Taiwan
| | - Fang Yu Chen
- Department of Endocrinology, Fu Jen Catholic University Hospital, New Taipei City 243, Taiwan
| | - Chun-Heng Kuo
- School of Medicine, College of Medicine, Fu Jen Catholic University, New Taipei City 243, Taiwan
- Division of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Department of Internal Medicine, Fu Jen Catholic University Hospital, New Taipei City 243, Taiwan
| | - Chung-Ze Wu
- Division of Endocrinology, Shuang Ho Hospital, New Taipei City 23561, Taiwan
- School of Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei City 11031, Taiwan
| | - Te-Lin Hsia
- Department of Internal Medicine, Cardinal Tien Hospital, New Taipei City 23148, Taiwan
| | - Chung-Yu Lin
- Department of Cardiology, Fu Jen Catholic University Hospital, New Taipei City 24352, Taiwan
- Graduate Institute of Business Administration, Fu Jen Catholic University, New Taipei City 242062, Taiwan
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Tzou SJ, Peng CH, Huang LY, Chen FY, Kuo CH, Wu CZ, Chu TW. Comparison between linear regression and four different machine learning methods in selecting risk factors for osteoporosis in a Chinese female aged cohort. J Chin Med Assoc 2023; 86:1028-1036. [PMID: 37729604 DOI: 10.1097/jcma.0000000000000999] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 09/22/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Population aging is emerging as an increasingly acute challenge for countries around the world. One particular manifestation of this phenomenon is the impact of osteoporosis on individuals and national health systems. Previous studies of risk factors for osteoporosis were conducted using traditional statistical methods, but more recent efforts have turned to machine learning approaches. Most such efforts, however, treat the target variable (bone mineral density [BMD] or fracture rate) as a categorical one, which provides no quantitative information. The present study uses five different machine learning methods to analyze the risk factors for T-score of BMD, seeking to (1) compare the prediction accuracy between different machine learning methods and traditional multiple linear regression (MLR) and (2) rank the importance of 25 different risk factors. METHODS The study sample includes 24 412 women older than 55 years with 25 related variables, applying traditional MLR and five different machine learning methods: classification and regression tree, Naïve Bayes, random forest, stochastic gradient boosting, and eXtreme gradient boosting. The metrics used for model performance comparisons are the symmetric mean absolute percentage error, relative absolute error, root relative squared error, and root mean squared error. RESULTS Machine learning approaches outperformed MLR for all four prediction errors. The average importance ranking of each factor generated by the machine learning methods indicates that age is the most important factor determining T-score, followed by estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), body mass index (BMI), uric acid (UA), and education level. CONCLUSION In a group of women older than 55 years, we demonstrated that machine learning methods provide superior performance in estimating T-Score, with age being the most important impact factor, followed by eGFR, BMI, UA, and education level.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shiow-Jyu Tzou
- Teaching and Researching Center, Kaohsiung Armed Forces General Hospital, Kaohsiung, Taiwan, ROC
- Institute of Medical Science and Technology, National Sun Yat-sen University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan, ROC
| | - Chung-Hsin Peng
- Department of Urology, Cardinal Tien Hospital, School of Medicine, Fu Jen Catholic University, New Taipei City, Taiwan, ROC
| | - Li-Ying Huang
- Division of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Department of Internal Medicine, Fu Jen Catholic University Hospital, New Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Fang-Yu Chen
- Division of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Department of Internal Medicine, Fu Jen Catholic University Hospital, New Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Chun-Heng Kuo
- Division of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Department of Internal Medicine, Fu Jen Catholic University Hospital, New Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Chung-Ze Wu
- Department of Internal Medicine, Shuang Ho Hospital, New Taipei City, Division of Endocrinology and Metabolism, School of Medicine, College of Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan, ROC
| | - Ta-Wei Chu
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Tri-Service General Hospital, National Defense Medical Center, Taipei, Taiwan, ROC
- MJ Health Research Foundation, Taipei, Taiwan, ROC
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Chen CH, Wang CK, Wang CY, Chang CF, Chu TW. Roles of biochemistry data, lifestyle, and inflammation in identifying abnormal renal function in old Chinese. World J Clin Cases 2023; 11:7004-7016. [PMID: 37946770 PMCID: PMC10631406 DOI: 10.12998/wjcc.v11.i29.7004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/05/2023] [Revised: 08/01/2023] [Accepted: 09/11/2023] [Indexed: 10/13/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The incidence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) has dramatically increased in recent years, with significant impacts on patient mortality rates. Previous studies have identified multiple risk factors for CKD, but they mostly relied on the use of traditional statistical methods such as logistic regression and only focused on a few risk factors. AIM To determine factors that can be used to identify subjects with a low estimated glomerular filtration rate (L-eGFR < 60 mL/min per 1.73 m2) in a cohort of 1236 Chinese people aged over 65. METHODS Twenty risk factors were divided into three models. Model 1 consisted of demographic and biochemistry data. Model 2 added lifestyle data to Model 1, and Model 3 added inflammatory markers to Model 2. Five machine learning methods were used: Multivariate adaptive regression splines, eXtreme Gradient Boosting, stochastic gradient boosting, Light Gradient Boosting Machine, and Categorical Features + Gradient Boosting. Evaluation criteria included accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), F-1 score, and balanced accuracy. RESULTS A trend of increasing AUC of each was observed from Model 1 to Model 3 and reached statistical significance. Model 3 selected uric acid as the most important risk factor, followed by age, hemoglobin (Hb), body mass index (BMI), sport hours, and systolic blood pressure (SBP). CONCLUSION Among all the risk factors including demographic, biochemistry, and lifestyle risk factors, along with inflammation markers, UA is the most important risk factor to identify L-eGFR, followed by age, Hb, BMI, sport hours, and SBP in a cohort of elderly Chinese people.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chao-Hung Chen
- Division of Urology, Department of Surgery, Kaohsiung Armed Forces General Hospital, Kaohsiung 802, Taiwan
- Division of Urology, Department of Surgery, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Keelung 204, Taiwan
| | - Chun-Kai Wang
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Zuoying Branch of Kaohsiung Armed Forces General Hospital, Kaohsiung 813, Taiwan
| | - Chen-Yu Wang
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Tri-Service General Hospital, National Defense Medical Center, Taipei 114, Taiwan
| | - Chun-Feng Chang
- Division of Urology, Department of Surgery, Kaohsiung Armed Forces General Hospital, Kaohsiung 802, Taiwan
- Division of Urology, Department of Surgery, Tri-Service General Hospital, National Defense Medical Center, Taipei 114, Taiwan
| | - Ta-Wei Chu
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Tri-Service General Hospital, National Defense Medical Center, Taipei 114, Taiwan
- Chief Executive Officer's Office, MJ Health Research Foundation, Taipei 114, Taiwan
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Cheng P, Zhang G, Zhang W, He S. Co-Design of Adaptive Event-Triggered Mechanism and Asynchronous H ∞ Control for 2-D Markov Jump Systems via Genetic Algorithm. IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON CYBERNETICS 2023; 53:5729-5740. [PMID: 35552148 DOI: 10.1109/tcyb.2022.3169530] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
This article concerns the co-design scheme of the adaptive event-triggered mechanism (AETM) and asynchronous H∞ control for two-dimensional (2-D) Markov jump systems. First, we introduce a hidden Markov model with the observation that the asynchronous phenomenon is inevitable between the plant mode and the controller mode. Besides, for economizing the communication times, an innovative 2-D AETM is constructed, which can dynamically regulate the event-triggered thresholds to strive for better system performance. Then, by utilizing the 2-D Lyapunov stability theory, nonlinear matrix inequalities are built to ensure the asymptotic mean-square stability with an H∞ performance for the closed-loop 2-D system. To avoid introducing any conservatism when handling the above nonlinear matrix inequalities, a binary-based genetic algorithm (BGA) is exploited to treat some variables as known, such that derive some directly solvable linear matrix inequalities. Finally, a simulation example is provided to verify the effectiveness of the proposed 2-D AETM-based asynchronous controller strategy with a BGA.
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Bai L, Lu K, Dong Y, Wang X, Gong Y, Xia Y, Wang X, Chen L, Yan S, Tang Z, Li C. Predicting monthly hospital outpatient visits based on meteorological environmental factors using the ARIMA model. Sci Rep 2023; 13:2691. [PMID: 36792764 PMCID: PMC9930044 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-29897-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/24/2022] [Accepted: 02/13/2023] [Indexed: 02/17/2023] Open
Abstract
Accurate forecasting of hospital outpatient visits is beneficial to the rational planning and allocation of medical resources to meet medical needs. Several studies have suggested that outpatient visits are related to meteorological environmental factors. We aimed to use the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to analyze the relationship between meteorological environmental factors and outpatient visits. Also, outpatient visits can be forecast for the future period. Monthly outpatient visits and meteorological environmental factors were collected from January 2015 to July 2021. An ARIMAX model was constructed by incorporating meteorological environmental factors as covariates to the ARIMA model, by evaluating the stationary [Formula: see text], coefficient of determination [Formula: see text], mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and normalized Bayesian information criterion (BIC). The ARIMA [Formula: see text] model with the covariates of [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], and [Formula: see text] was the optimal model. Monthly outpatient visits in 2019 can be predicted using average data from past years. The relative error between the predicted and actual values for 2019 was 2.77%. Our study suggests that [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], and [Formula: see text] concentration have a significant impact on outpatient visits. The model built has excellent predictive performance and can provide some references for the scientific management of hospitals to allocate staff and resources.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lu Bai
- grid.263761.70000 0001 0198 0694Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Medical College of Soochow University, Suzhou, 215123 China ,grid.263761.70000 0001 0198 0694Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Preventive and Translational Medicine for Geriatric Diseases, Medical College of Soochow University, Suzhou, 215123 China
| | - Ke Lu
- grid.452273.50000 0004 4914 577XDepartment of Orthopedics, Affiliated Kunshan Hospital of Jiangsu University, No. 91 West of Qianjin Road, Suzhou, 215300 Jiangsu China
| | - Yongfei Dong
- grid.263761.70000 0001 0198 0694Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Medical College of Soochow University, Suzhou, 215123 China ,grid.263761.70000 0001 0198 0694Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Preventive and Translational Medicine for Geriatric Diseases, Medical College of Soochow University, Suzhou, 215123 China
| | - Xichao Wang
- grid.263761.70000 0001 0198 0694Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Medical College of Soochow University, Suzhou, 215123 China ,grid.263761.70000 0001 0198 0694Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Preventive and Translational Medicine for Geriatric Diseases, Medical College of Soochow University, Suzhou, 215123 China
| | - Yaqin Gong
- grid.452273.50000 0004 4914 577XInformation Department, Affiliated Kunshan Hospital of Jiangsu University, Suzhou, 215300 Jiangsu China
| | - Yunyu Xia
- Meteorological Bureau of Kunshan City, Suzhou, 215337 Jiangsu China
| | - Xiaochun Wang
- Meteorological Bureau of Kunshan City, Suzhou, 215337 Jiangsu China
| | - Lin Chen
- Ecology and Environment Bureau of Kunshan City, Suzhou, 215330 Jiangsu China
| | - Shanjun Yan
- Ecology and Environment Bureau of Kunshan City, Suzhou, 215330 Jiangsu China
| | - Zaixiang Tang
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Medical College of Soochow University, Suzhou, 215123, China. .,Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Preventive and Translational Medicine for Geriatric Diseases, Medical College of Soochow University, Suzhou, 215123, China.
| | - Chong Li
- Department of Orthopedics, Affiliated Kunshan Hospital of Jiangsu University, No. 91 West of Qianjin Road, Suzhou, 215300, Jiangsu, China.
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Huang HH, Hsieh SJ, Chen MS, Jhou MJ, Liu TC, Shen HL, Yang CT, Hung CC, Yu YY, Lu CJ. Machine Learning Predictive Models for Evaluating Risk Factors Affecting Sperm Count: Predictions Based on Health Screening Indicators. J Clin Med 2023; 12:1220. [PMID: 36769868 PMCID: PMC9917545 DOI: 10.3390/jcm12031220] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/20/2022] [Revised: 01/13/2023] [Accepted: 02/01/2023] [Indexed: 02/05/2023] Open
Abstract
In many countries, especially developed nations, the fertility rate and birth rate have continually declined. Taiwan's fertility rate has paralleled this trend and reached its nadir in 2022. Therefore, the government uses many strategies to encourage more married couples to have children. However, couples marrying at an older age may have declining physical status, as well as hypertension and other metabolic syndrome symptoms, in addition to possibly being overweight, which have been the focus of the studies for their influences on male and female gamete quality. Many previous studies based on infertile people are not truly representative of the general population. This study proposed a framework using five machine learning (ML) predictive algorithms-random forest, stochastic gradient boosting, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression, ridge regression, and extreme gradient boosting-to identify the major risk factors affecting male sperm count based on a major health screening database in Taiwan. Unlike traditional multiple linear regression, ML algorithms do not need statistical assumptions and can capture non-linear relationships or complex interactions between dependent and independent variables to generate promising performance. We analyzed annual health screening data of 1375 males from 2010 to 2017, including data on health screening indicators, sourced from the MJ Group, a major health screening center in Taiwan. The symmetric mean absolute percentage error, relative absolute error, root relative squared error, and root mean squared error were used as performance evaluation metrics. Our results show that sleep time (ST), alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), body fat (BF), systolic blood pressure (SBP), and blood urea nitrogen (BUN) are the top five risk factors associated with sperm count. ST is a known risk factor influencing reproductive hormone balance, which can affect spermatogenesis and final sperm count. BF and SBP are risk factors associated with metabolic syndrome, another known risk factor of altered male reproductive hormone systems. However, AFP has not been the focus of previous studies on male fertility or semen quality. BUN, the index for kidney function, is also identified as a risk factor by our established ML model. Our results support previous findings that metabolic syndrome has negative impacts on sperm count and semen quality. Sleep duration also has an impact on sperm generation in the testes. AFP and BUN are two novel risk factors linked to sperm counts. These findings could help healthcare personnel and law makers create strategies for creating environments to increase the country's fertility rate. This study should also be of value to follow-up research.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hung-Hsiang Huang
- Division of Urology, Department of Surgery, Far Eastern Memorial Hospital, New Taipei City 220, Taiwan
| | - Shang-Ju Hsieh
- Division of Urology, Department of Surgery, Far Eastern Memorial Hospital, New Taipei City 220, Taiwan
| | - Ming-Shu Chen
- Department of Healthcare Administration, College of Healthcare & Management, Asia Eastern University of Science and Technology, New Taipei City 220, Taiwan
| | - Mao-Jhen Jhou
- Graduate Institute of Business Administration, Fu Jen Catholic University, New Taipei City 242, Taiwan
| | - Tzu-Chi Liu
- Graduate Institute of Business Administration, Fu Jen Catholic University, New Taipei City 242, Taiwan
| | - Hsiang-Li Shen
- Graduate Institute of Business Administration, Fu Jen Catholic University, New Taipei City 242, Taiwan
| | - Chih-Te Yang
- Department of Business Administration, Tamkang University, New Taipei City 251, Taiwan
| | - Chung-Chih Hung
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, Taipei Hospital, Ministry of Health and Welfare, New Taipei City 242, Taiwan
| | - Ya-Yen Yu
- Department of Medical Laboratory, Chang-Hua Hospital, Ministry of Health and Welfare, Chang Hua County 513, Taiwan
| | - Chi-Jie Lu
- Graduate Institute of Business Administration, Fu Jen Catholic University, New Taipei City 242, Taiwan
- Artificial Intelligence Development Center, Fu Jen Catholic University, New Taipei City 242, Taiwan
- Department of Information Management, Fu Jen Catholic University, New Taipei City 242, Taiwan
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A Method for Improving the Prediction of Outpatient Visits for Hospital Management: Bayesian Autoregressive Analysis. COMPUTATIONAL AND MATHEMATICAL METHODS IN MEDICINE 2022; 2022:4718157. [PMID: 36277006 PMCID: PMC9581652 DOI: 10.1155/2022/4718157] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/11/2021] [Revised: 07/03/2022] [Accepted: 08/31/2022] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
The number of outpatient visits is generally influenced by various factors that are difficult to quantify and obtain, resulting in some irregular fluctuations. The traditional statistical methodology seldom considers these uncertainties. Accordingly, this paper presents a Bayesian autoregressive (AR) analysis to propose a forecasting framework to cope with the strict requirements. The AR model was conducted to identify the linear and autocorrelation relationships of historical series, and Bayesian inference was used to correct and optimize the AR model parameters. Posterior distribution of parameters was stably and reliably obtained by Gibbs sampling on the condition of the convergent Markov chain. Meanwhile, the lag orders of the AR model were adjusted based on the series characteristics. To increase the variability and generality of the dataset, the developed Bayesian AR model was evaluated at seven hospitals in China. The results demonstrated that the Bayesian AR model had varying degrees of decline in the MAPE value in the seven sets of experimental data. The reductions ranged from 0.1431% to 0.0342%, indicating effective optimization of the Bayesian inference in the AR model parameters and reflecting the useful correction of the lag order adjustment strategy. The proposed Bayesian AR framework showed high accuracy index and stable prediction accuracy, thereby outperforming the traditional AR model.
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Big Data, Decision Models, and Public Health. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2022; 19:ijerph19148543. [PMID: 35886394 PMCID: PMC9324609 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph19148543] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/05/2022] [Accepted: 07/08/2022] [Indexed: 12/10/2022]
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Comparison between Machine Learning and Multiple Linear Regression to Identify Abnormal Thallium Myocardial Perfusion Scan in Chinese Type 2 Diabetes. Diagnostics (Basel) 2022; 12:diagnostics12071619. [PMID: 35885524 PMCID: PMC9324130 DOI: 10.3390/diagnostics12071619] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/04/2022] [Revised: 06/27/2022] [Accepted: 06/30/2022] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients have a high risk of coronary artery disease (CAD). Thallium-201 myocardial perfusion scan (Th-201 scan) is a non-invasive and extensively used tool in recognizing CAD in clinical settings. In this study, we attempted to compare the predictive accuracy of evaluating abnormal Th-201 scans using traditional multiple linear regression (MLR) with four machine learning (ML) methods. From the study, we can determine whether ML surpasses traditional MLR and rank the clinical variables and compare them with previous reports.In total, 796 T2DM, including 368 men and 528 women, were enrolled. In addition to traditional MLR, classification and regression tree (CART), random forest (RF), stochastic gradient boosting (SGB) and eXtreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) were also used to analyze abnormal Th-201 scans. Stress sum score was used as the endpoint (dependent variable). Our findings show that all four root mean square errors of ML are smaller than with MLR, which implies that ML is more precise than MLR in determining abnormal Th-201 scans by using clinical parameters. The first seven factors, from the most important to the least are:body mass index, hemoglobin, age, glycated hemoglobin, Creatinine, systolic and diastolic blood pressure. In conclusion, ML is not inferior to traditional MLR in predicting abnormal Th-201 scans, and the most important factors are body mass index, hemoglobin, age, glycated hemoglobin, creatinine, systolic and diastolic blood pressure. ML methods are superior in these kinds of studies.
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Huang LY, Chen FY, Jhou MJ, Kuo CH, Wu CZ, Lu CH, Chen YL, Pei D, Cheng YF, Lu CJ. Comparing Multiple Linear Regression and Machine Learning in Predicting Diabetic Urine Albumin-Creatinine Ratio in a 4-Year Follow-Up Study. J Clin Med 2022; 11:3661. [PMID: 35806944 PMCID: PMC9267784 DOI: 10.3390/jcm11133661] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/29/2022] [Revised: 06/19/2022] [Accepted: 06/22/2022] [Indexed: 02/07/2023] Open
Abstract
The urine albumin-creatinine ratio (uACR) is a warning for the deterioration of renal function in type 2 diabetes (T2D). The early detection of ACR has become an important issue. Multiple linear regression (MLR) has traditionally been used to explore the relationships between risk factors and endpoints. Recently, machine learning (ML) methods have been widely applied in medicine. In the present study, four ML methods were used to predict the uACR in a T2D cohort. We hypothesized that (1) ML outperforms traditional MLR and (2) different ranks of the importance of the risk factors will be obtained. A total of 1147 patients with T2D were followed up for four years. MLR, classification and regression tree, random forest, stochastic gradient boosting, and eXtreme gradient boosting methods were used. Our findings show that the prediction errors of the ML methods are smaller than those of MLR, which indicates that ML is more accurate. The first six most important factors were baseline creatinine level, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, glycated hemoglobin, and fasting plasma glucose. In conclusion, ML might be more accurate in predicting uACR in a T2D cohort than the traditional MLR, and the baseline creatinine level is the most important predictor, which is followed by systolic and diastolic blood pressure, glycated hemoglobin, and fasting plasma glucose in Chinese patients with T2D.
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Affiliation(s)
- Li-Ying Huang
- Division of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Department of Internal Medicine, Department of Medical Education, Fu Jen Catholic University Hospital, School of Medicine, College of Medicine, Fu Jen Catholic University, New Taipei City 24352, Taiwan; (L.-Y.H.); (F.-Y.C.); (C.-H.K.); (D.P.)
| | - Fang-Yu Chen
- Division of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Department of Internal Medicine, Department of Medical Education, Fu Jen Catholic University Hospital, School of Medicine, College of Medicine, Fu Jen Catholic University, New Taipei City 24352, Taiwan; (L.-Y.H.); (F.-Y.C.); (C.-H.K.); (D.P.)
| | - Mao-Jhen Jhou
- Graduate Institute of Business Administration, Fu Jen Catholic University, New Taipei City 242062, Taiwan;
| | - Chun-Heng Kuo
- Division of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Department of Internal Medicine, Department of Medical Education, Fu Jen Catholic University Hospital, School of Medicine, College of Medicine, Fu Jen Catholic University, New Taipei City 24352, Taiwan; (L.-Y.H.); (F.-Y.C.); (C.-H.K.); (D.P.)
| | - Chung-Ze Wu
- Division of Endocrinology, Department of Internal Medicine, Shuang Ho Hospital, New Taipei City 23561, Taiwan;
- Division of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Department of Internal Medicine, School of Medicine, College of Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei 11031, Taiwan
| | - Chieh-Hua Lu
- Division of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Department of Internal Medicine, Tri-Service General Hospital, School of Medicine, National Defense Medical Center, Taipei 11490, Taiwan;
| | - Yen-Lin Chen
- Department of Pathology, Tri-Service General Hospital, National Defense Medical Center, Taipei 11490, Taiwan;
| | - Dee Pei
- Division of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Department of Internal Medicine, Department of Medical Education, Fu Jen Catholic University Hospital, School of Medicine, College of Medicine, Fu Jen Catholic University, New Taipei City 24352, Taiwan; (L.-Y.H.); (F.-Y.C.); (C.-H.K.); (D.P.)
| | - Yu-Fang Cheng
- Department of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Changhua Christian Hospital, Changhua 50051, Taiwan;
| | - Chi-Jie Lu
- Graduate Institute of Business Administration, Fu Jen Catholic University, New Taipei City 242062, Taiwan;
- Artificial Intelligence Development Center, Fu Jen Catholic University, New Taipei City 242062, Taiwan
- Department of Information Management, Fu Jen Catholic University, New Taipei City 242062, Taiwan
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Chan CL, Chang CC. Big Data, Decision Models, and Public Health. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2020; 17:ijerph17186723. [PMID: 32942728 PMCID: PMC7558933 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph17186723] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/08/2020] [Accepted: 09/14/2020] [Indexed: 12/23/2022]
Abstract
Unlike most daily decisions, medical decision making often has substantial consequences and trade-offs. Recently, big data analytics techniques such as statistical analysis, data mining, machine learning and deep learning can be applied to construct innovative decision models. With complex decision making, it can be difficult to comprehend and compare the benefits and risks of all available options to make a decision. For these reasons, this Special Issue focuses on the use of big data analytics and forms of public health decision making based on the decision model, spanning from theory to practice. A total of 64 submissions were carefully blind peer reviewed by at least two referees and, finally, 23 papers were selected for this Special Issue.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chien-Lung Chan
- Department of Information Management, Yuan Ze University, Taoyuan 320, Taiwan;
- Innovation Center for Big Data and Digital Convergence, Yuan Ze University, Taoyuan 320, Taiwan
| | - Chi-Chang Chang
- School of Medical Informatics, Chung Shan Medical University & IT Office, Chung Shan Medical University Hospital, Taichung 40201, Taiwan
- Correspondence: ; Tel.: +886-4-24730022
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