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Wang Y, Li J, Zhu X. The coronavirus outbreak calls for epidemic catastrophe insurance: Evidence from China. RISK ANALYSIS : AN OFFICIAL PUBLICATION OF THE SOCIETY FOR RISK ANALYSIS 2025. [PMID: 39824525 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17700] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/18/2022] [Revised: 10/31/2024] [Accepted: 12/01/2024] [Indexed: 01/20/2025]
Abstract
The COVID-19 shows significant "catastrophe" characteristics. It has put tremendous pressure on various countries' government finances. A few studies have realized that insurance could be applied in the rescue of catastrophic epidemics to relieve government pressure and improve rescue efficiency. However, most of these studies are based on qualitative analysis, with few quantitative calculations to prove whether it is feasible. Therefore, this article discusses the insurability of epidemic catastrophe insurance and proposes a novel quantitative methodology that measures insurance funds, estimates pandemic-induced losses, and integrates reinsurance analysis to evaluate its effectiveness. Based on epidemic loss data collected from public information in China, the empirical study shows that China's epidemic catastrophe insurance fund can reach 50 billion yuan 5 years after its establishment and over 120 billion 10 years later, which can cover the losses caused by mild and severe epidemics. The epidemic catastrophe fund is capable of meeting claims requirements and effectively covering epidemics of varying severities. Furthermore, the reinsurance model demonstrates that insurers can transfer risks at a relatively reasonable cost, thereby covering losses from extreme epidemics. The findings reveal the effectiveness of epidemic catastrophe insurance, suggesting that worldwide countries incorporate epidemics into their catastrophe insurance to aid government in responding to future catastrophic epidemics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yinghui Wang
- School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Jianping Li
- School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
- MOE Social Science Laboratory of Digital Economic Forecasts and Policy Simulation, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Xiaoqian Zhu
- School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
- MOE Social Science Laboratory of Digital Economic Forecasts and Policy Simulation, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
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Markandan K, Tiong YW, Sankaran R, Subramanian S, Markandan UD, Chaudhary V, Numan A, Khalid M, Walvekar R. Emergence of infectious diseases and role of advanced nanomaterials in point-of-care diagnostics: a review. Biotechnol Genet Eng Rev 2024; 40:3438-3526. [PMID: 36243900 DOI: 10.1080/02648725.2022.2127070] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/08/2022] [Accepted: 09/12/2022] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Abstract
Infectious outbreaks are the foremost global public health concern, challenging the current healthcare system, which claims millions of lives annually. The most crucial way to control an infectious outbreak is by early detection through point-of-care (POC) diagnostics. POC diagnostics are highly advantageous owing to the prompt diagnosis, which is economical, simple and highly efficient with remote access capabilities. In particular, utilization of nanomaterials to architect POC devices has enabled highly integrated and portable (compact) devices with enhanced efficiency. As such, this review will detail the factors influencing the emergence of infectious diseases and methods for fast and accurate detection, thus elucidating the underlying factors of these infections. Furthermore, it comprehensively highlights the importance of different nanomaterials in POCs to detect nucleic acid, whole pathogens, proteins and antibody detection systems. Finally, we summarize findings reported on nanomaterials based on advanced POCs such as lab-on-chip, lab-on-disc-devices, point-of-action and hospital-on-chip. To this end, we discuss the challenges, potential solutions, prospects of integrating internet-of-things, artificial intelligence, 5G communications and data clouding to achieve intelligent POCs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kalaimani Markandan
- Temasek Laboratories, Nanyang Technological University, Nanyang Drive, Singapore
- Faculty of Engineering, Technology and Built Environment, UCSI University, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
| | - Yong Wei Tiong
- NUS Environmental Research Institute, National University of Singapore, Engineering Drive, Singapore
| | - Revathy Sankaran
- Graduate School, University of Nottingham Malaysia Campus, Semenyih, Selangor, Malaysia
| | - Sakthinathan Subramanian
- Department of Materials & Mineral Resources Engineering, National Taipei University of Technology (NTUT), Taipei, Taiwan
| | | | - Vishal Chaudhary
- Research Cell & Department of Physics, Bhagini Nivedita College, University of Delhi, New Delhi, India
| | - Arshid Numan
- Graphene & Advanced 2D Materials Research Group (GAMRG), School of Engineering and Technology, Sunway University, Petaling Jaya, Selangor, Malaysia
- Sunway Materials Smart Science & Engineering (SMS2E) Research Cluster School of Engineering and Technology, Sunway University, Selangor, Malaysia
| | - Mohammad Khalid
- Graphene & Advanced 2D Materials Research Group (GAMRG), School of Engineering and Technology, Sunway University, Petaling Jaya, Selangor, Malaysia
- Sunway Materials Smart Science & Engineering (SMS2E) Research Cluster School of Engineering and Technology, Sunway University, Selangor, Malaysia
| | - Rashmi Walvekar
- Department of Chemical Engineering, School of Energy and Chemical Engineering, Xiamen University Malaysia, Sepang, Selangor, Malaysia
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Gupta A, Rudra A, Reed K, Langer R, Anderson DG. Advanced technologies for the development of infectious disease vaccines. Nat Rev Drug Discov 2024; 23:914-938. [PMID: 39433939 DOI: 10.1038/s41573-024-01041-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 08/28/2024] [Indexed: 10/23/2024]
Abstract
Vaccines play a critical role in the prevention of life-threatening infectious disease. However, the development of effective vaccines against many immune-evading pathogens such as HIV has proven challenging, and existing vaccines against some diseases such as tuberculosis and malaria have limited efficacy. The historically slow rate of vaccine development and limited pan-variant immune responses also limit existing vaccine utility against rapidly emerging and mutating pathogens such as influenza and SARS-CoV-2. Additionally, reactogenic effects can contribute to vaccine hesitancy, further undermining the ability of vaccination campaigns to generate herd immunity. These limitations are fuelling the development of novel vaccine technologies to more effectively combat infectious diseases. Towards this end, advances in vaccine delivery systems, adjuvants, antigens and other technologies are paving the way for the next generation of vaccines. This Review focuses on recent advances in synthetic vaccine systems and their associated challenges, highlighting innovation in the field of nano- and nucleic acid-based vaccines.
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Affiliation(s)
- Akash Gupta
- David H Koch Institute for Integrative Cancer Research, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA
- Department of Chemical Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA
| | - Arnab Rudra
- David H Koch Institute for Integrative Cancer Research, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA
- Department of Chemical Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA
- Department of Anesthesiology, Critical Care and Pain Medicine, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Kaelan Reed
- David H Koch Institute for Integrative Cancer Research, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA
- Department of Chemical Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA
| | - Robert Langer
- David H Koch Institute for Integrative Cancer Research, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA
- Department of Chemical Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA
- Harvard and MIT Division of Health Science and Technology, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA
- Institute for Medical Engineering and Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA
| | - Daniel G Anderson
- David H Koch Institute for Integrative Cancer Research, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA.
- Department of Chemical Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA.
- Department of Anesthesiology, Critical Care and Pain Medicine, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA.
- Harvard and MIT Division of Health Science and Technology, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA.
- Institute for Medical Engineering and Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA.
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Jamison DT, Summers LH, Chang AY, Karlsson O, Mao W, Norheim OF, Ogbuoji O, Schäferhoff M, Watkins D, Adeyi O, Alleyne G, Alwan A, Anand S, Belachew R, Berkley SF, Bertozzi SM, Bolongaita S, Bundy D, Bustreo F, Castro MC, Chen S, Fan VY, Fawole A, Feachem R, Gebremedhin L, Ghosh J, Goldie SJ, Gonzalez-Pier E, Guo Y, Gupta S, Jha P, Knaul FM, Kruk ME, Kurowski C, Liu GG, Makimoto S, Mataria A, Nugent R, Oshitani H, Pablos-Mendez A, Peto R, Sekhri Feachem N, Reddy S, Salti N, Saxenian H, Seyi-Olajide J, Soucat A, Verguet S, Zimmerman A, Yamey G. Global health 2050: the path to halving premature death by mid-century. Lancet 2024; 404:1561-1614. [PMID: 39419055 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(24)01439-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/09/2024] [Revised: 07/09/2024] [Accepted: 07/09/2024] [Indexed: 10/19/2024]
Affiliation(s)
- Dean T Jamison
- Institute for Global Health Sciences, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA
| | - Lawrence H Summers
- Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government, John F Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
| | - Angela Y Chang
- Danish Centre for Health Economics, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark
| | - Omar Karlsson
- Duke Global Health Institute, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA
| | - Wenhui Mao
- Duke Global Health Institute, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA
| | - Ole F Norheim
- Bergen Centre for Ethics and Priority Setting in Health, Department of Global Public Health and Primary Care, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
| | - Osondu Ogbuoji
- Duke Global Health Institute, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA
| | | | - David Watkins
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | | | | | - Ala Alwan
- WHO Regional Office for the Eastern Mediterranean, Cairo, Egypt
| | - Shuchi Anand
- Division of Nephrology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
| | | | - Seth F Berkley
- Pandemic Center, School of Public Health, Brown University, Providence, RI, USA
| | - Stefano M Bertozzi
- School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA
| | - Sarah Bolongaita
- Bergen Centre for Ethics and Priority Setting in Health, Department of Global Public Health and Primary Care, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
| | - Donald Bundy
- Department of Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, England, UK
| | - Flavia Bustreo
- Partnership for Maternal, Newborn and Child Health, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Marcia C Castro
- Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Simiao Chen
- Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany
| | | | | | - Richard Feachem
- Institute for Global Health Sciences, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA
| | - Lia Gebremedhin
- Harvard Ministerial Leadership Program, Division of Policy Translation and Leadership Development, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Jayati Ghosh
- Department of Economics, College of Social & Behavioral Sciences, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, USA
| | - Sue J Goldie
- Department of Health Policy and Management, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
| | | | - Yan Guo
- Institute for Global Health and Development, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, China
| | | | - Prabhat Jha
- Unity Health Toronto, Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Felicia Marie Knaul
- Institute for Advanced Study of the Americas, Leonard M Miller School of Medicine, University of Miami, Miami, FL, USA
| | - Margaret E Kruk
- Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | | | - Gordon G Liu
- Institute for Global Health and Development, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, China
| | - Saeda Makimoto
- Ogata Sadako Research Institute for Peace and Development, Japan International Cooperation Agency, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Awad Mataria
- WHO Regional Office for the Eastern Mediterranean, Cairo, Egypt
| | - Rachel Nugent
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Hitoshi Oshitani
- Department of Virology, Graduate School of Medicine, Tohoku University, Sendai, Japan
| | - Ariel Pablos-Mendez
- Division of General Internal Medicine, Columbia University Irving Medical Center, New York, NY, USA
| | - Richard Peto
- Nuffield Department of Population Health, Oxford University, Oxford, UK
| | - Neelam Sekhri Feachem
- Center for Global Health Diplomacy, Delivery, and Economics, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA
| | | | - Nisreen Salti
- Department of Economics, American University of Beirut, Beirut, Lebanon
| | | | | | - Agnes Soucat
- Agence Française de Développement, Paris, France
| | - Stéphane Verguet
- Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | | | - Gavin Yamey
- Duke Global Health Institute, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA.
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Chen J, Tang L, Song W, Sun C, Zhang W. Infection associated with CDK4/6 inhibitors: a pharmacovigilance analysis of the FDA adverse event reporting system database. Front Pharmacol 2024; 15:1371346. [PMID: 39011505 PMCID: PMC11247343 DOI: 10.3389/fphar.2024.1371346] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/16/2024] [Accepted: 06/14/2024] [Indexed: 07/17/2024] Open
Abstract
Introduction Cyclin-dependent kinase 4 and 6 (CDK4/6) inhibitors are first-line treatments for hormone receptor-positive/human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative breast cancer. With their increasing clinical use, infection-related adverse events (AEs) associated with CDK4/6 inhibitors have been widely reported in recent years. This study aimed to analyze the occurrence of infections associated with the CDK4/6 inhibitors (palbociclib, ribociclib and abemaciclib) based on the real-world data from the US Food and Drug Administration Adverse Event Reporting System (FAERS) database. Methods Data were extracted from the FAERS database between 2015Q1 and 2022Q3. The clinical characteristics of patients with primary suspected infection-related AEs were analyzed. A disproportionality analysis was performed to investigate the potential association between AEs and CDK4/6 inhibitors. The influencing factors were evaluated using Pearson's chi-square test. Results Reports of infection-related AEs associated with ribociclib accounted for 8.58% of the total reports of AEs associated with ribociclib, followed by palbociclib (2.72%) and abemaciclib (1.24%). Ribociclib (67.65%) was associated with more serious outcome events than palbociclib (30%) or abemaciclib (48.08%). The sex and age were not associated with outcome severity. Disproportionality analysis showed that fourteen, sixteen and two infection-related preferred terms were detected for palbociclib, ribociclib and abemaciclib, respectively. Conclusion Infection-related AEs were highly associated with three CDK4/6 inhibitors, especially palbociclib and ribociclib, based on the real-world data from the FAERS database. However, further causality assessment is required.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jinhua Chen
- Department of Pharmacy, The Affiliated Cancer Hospital of Zhengzhou University and Henan Cancer Hospital, Henan Engineering Research Center for Tumor Precision Medicine and Comprehensive Evaluation, Henan Provincial Key Laboratory of Anticancer Drug Research, Zhengzhou, China
| | - Linlin Tang
- Department of Pharmacy, Affiliated Hospital of Weifang Medical University, Weifang, China
| | - Wenping Song
- Department of Pharmacy, The Affiliated Cancer Hospital of Zhengzhou University and Henan Cancer Hospital, Henan Engineering Research Center for Tumor Precision Medicine and Comprehensive Evaluation, Henan Provincial Key Laboratory of Anticancer Drug Research, Zhengzhou, China
| | - Cuicui Sun
- Department of Pharmacy, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Ji’nan, China
| | - Wenzhou Zhang
- Department of Pharmacy, The Affiliated Cancer Hospital of Zhengzhou University and Henan Cancer Hospital, Henan Engineering Research Center for Tumor Precision Medicine and Comprehensive Evaluation, Henan Provincial Key Laboratory of Anticancer Drug Research, Zhengzhou, China
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McElwee F, Newall A. The Value of Flexible Vaccine Manufacturing Capacity: Value Drivers, Estimation Methods, and Approaches to Value Recognition in Health Technology Assessment. PHARMACOECONOMICS 2024; 42:187-197. [PMID: 38819720 PMCID: PMC11230966 DOI: 10.1007/s40273-024-01396-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 05/12/2024] [Indexed: 06/01/2024]
Abstract
Expanding flexible vaccine manufacturing capacity (FVMC) for routine vaccines could facilitate more timely access to novel vaccines during future pandemics. Vaccine manufacturing capacity is 'flexible' if it is built on a technology platform that allows rapid adaption to new infectious agents. The added value of routine vaccines produced using a flexible platform for pandemic preparedness is not currently recognised in conventional health technology assessment (HTA) methods. We start by examining the current state of play of incentives for FVMC and exploring the relation between flexible and spare capacity. We then establish the key factors for estimating FVMC and draw from established frameworks to identify relevant value drivers. The role of FVMC as a countermeasure against pandemic risks is deemed an additional value attribute that should be recognised. Next, we address the gap in the vaccine-valuation literature between the conceptual understanding of the value of additional FVMC and the availability of accurate and reliable tools for its estimation to facilitate integration into HTA. Three practical approaches for estimating the value of additional FVMC are discussed: stated and revealed preference studies, macroeconomic modelling, and benefit-cost analysis. Lastly, we review how value recognition of additional FVMC can be realised within the HTA process for routine vaccines manufactured on flexible platforms. We argue that, while the value of additional FVMC is uncertain and further research is needed to help to better estimate it, the value of increased pandemic preparedness is likely to be too large to be ignored.
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Affiliation(s)
- Frederick McElwee
- Office of Health Economics, 2nd Floor, Goldings House, Hay's Galleria, London, SE1 2HB, UK.
- Health Economics Research Centre, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
| | - Anthony Newall
- School of Population Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, Australia
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Ahmed W, Liu Y, Smith W, Ingall W, Belby M, Bivins A, Bertsch P, Williams DT, Richards K, Simpson S. Leveraging wastewater surveillance to detect viral diseases in livestock settings. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 931:172593. [PMID: 38642765 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.172593] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/29/2024] [Revised: 04/14/2024] [Accepted: 04/17/2024] [Indexed: 04/22/2024]
Abstract
Wastewater surveillance has evolved into a powerful tool for monitoring public health-relevant analytes. Recent applications in tracking severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection highlight its potential. Beyond humans, it can be extended to livestock settings where there is increasing demand for livestock products, posing risks of disease emergence. Wastewater surveillance may offer non-invasive, cost-effective means to detect potential outbreaks among animals. This approach aligns with the "One Health" paradigm, emphasizing the interconnectedness of animal, human, and ecosystem health. By monitoring viruses in livestock wastewater, early detection, prevention, and control strategies can be employed, safeguarding both animal and human health, economic stability, and international trade. This integrated "One Health" approach enhances collaboration and a comprehensive understanding of disease dynamics, supporting proactive measures in the Anthropocene era where animal and human diseases are on the rise.
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Affiliation(s)
- Warish Ahmed
- CSIRO Environment, Ecosciences Precinct, 41 Boggo Road, Dutton Park, QLD 4102, Australia.
| | - Yawen Liu
- CSIRO Environment, Ecosciences Precinct, 41 Boggo Road, Dutton Park, QLD 4102, Australia; State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science, College of the Environment & Ecology, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361102, China
| | - Wendy Smith
- CSIRO Environment, Ecosciences Precinct, 41 Boggo Road, Dutton Park, QLD 4102, Australia
| | - Wayne Ingall
- Wide Bay Public Health Unit, 14 Branyan Street, Bundaberg, West Qld 4670, Australia
| | - Michael Belby
- Wide Bay Public Health Unit, 14 Branyan Street, Bundaberg, West Qld 4670, Australia
| | - Aaron Bivins
- Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA 70803, USA
| | - Paul Bertsch
- CSIRO Environment, Ecosciences Precinct, 41 Boggo Road, Dutton Park, QLD 4102, Australia
| | - David T Williams
- CSIRO Australian Centre for Disease Preparedness, 5 Portarlington Road, Geelong, VIC 3220, Australia
| | - Kirsty Richards
- SunPork Group, 1/6 Eagleview Place, Eagle Farm, QLD 4009, Australia
| | - Stuart Simpson
- CSIRO Environment, Ecosciences Precinct, 41 Boggo Road, Dutton Park, QLD 4102, Australia
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Weissman JD, Pinder N, Jay M, Taylor J. The Impact of Health Coverage, Race and Ethnicity on Utilization of Preventive Medical Care during the First Year of the Covid-19 Pandemic: Findings from the National Health Interview Survey 2019-2020. J Racial Ethn Health Disparities 2024; 11:643-651. [PMID: 36856956 PMCID: PMC9976689 DOI: 10.1007/s40615-023-01549-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/08/2022] [Revised: 02/18/2023] [Accepted: 02/20/2023] [Indexed: 03/02/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES This study examined COVID-19's impact in the 2020 compared to 2019 survey years on preventive medical care utilization. RESEARCH DESIGN Using a cross-sectional sample of adults aged 18 years and over (2019; n = 31,997; 2020; n = 31,568), from the National Health Interview Survey, multivariable models compared 2020 to 2019 survey years for receiving diabetes screening blood tests, well-care visits, and physical therapy. An additional multivariable model predicted not having medical care due to the COVID-19 pandemic in the 2020 2020 survey year. RESULTS In the 2020 versus 2019 survey years, the likelihood lowered for receiving a blood test for diabetes screening (aOR .83 CI = .76, .90). There was a lowered likelihood for a well care visits (aOR = .98 CI = .84, 1.1) and physical therapy (aOR = .97 CI = .89, 1.0). Black (aOR = .62 CI = .51, .75), Hispanic (aOR = .62 CI = .51, .75) and Asian (aOR .67 CI = .53, .86) adults had a lowered likelihood of having physical therapy compared to White adults. Having no insurance coverage lowered the likelihood of getting all three indicators of preventive medical care. There was a higher likelihood of not getting medical care due to COVID-19 in the 2020 survey year (aOR = 1.7 CI = 1.3, 2.1) with Medicaid compared to private coverage. CONCLUSIONS Use of preventive medical care lowered in the pandemic. Race and ethnicity and not having any coverage contributed to not receiving preventive care. Medicaid appeared to increase utilization of preventive medical care but not acute medical care.
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Affiliation(s)
- Judith D. Weissman
- Department of Epidemiology, New York University’s School of Global Public Health, 305 Broadway, Room 755, New York, NY 10003 USA
| | - Natalie Pinder
- Department of Epidemiology, New York University’s School of Global Public Health, 305 Broadway, Room 755, New York, NY 10003 USA
| | - Melanie Jay
- Departments of Medicine and Population Health, New York University Grossman School of Medicine, 550 First Avenue, New York, NY 10016 USA
- New York Harbor Veterans Affairs, New York, NY USA
| | - John Taylor
- Department of Sociology, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL USA
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Gozzoli RB, Gozzoli PC, Wattanacharoensil W. Resilience model for a destination support: Pattaya, Thailand. Heliyon 2024; 10:e26599. [PMID: 38420382 PMCID: PMC10900811 DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e26599] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/27/2023] [Revised: 02/14/2024] [Accepted: 02/15/2024] [Indexed: 03/02/2024] Open
Abstract
This research focuses on resilience and sustainable development in the tourism sector during the Covid-19 pandemic, using Pattaya - a renowned beach destination in Thailand - as the studied context. Since 2020, the pandemic has significantly impacted the tourism sector and its supply chain. The consequences include the stagnation of tourism and hospitality services and other economic activities due to lockdown measures and other restrictions. To investigate Pattaya's resilience in the face of these challenges, and post-pandemic recovery, this research adopted the conceptual framework on economic resilience and tourism recovery proposed by McCartney et al. (2021), as a theoretical lens to analyse events in Pattaya. The qualitative research method was employed, using in-depth interviews with public and private stakeholders, such as local authorities, large and small hotels, tourism business agencies and relevant organisations. The results show that the tourism industry, similarly to other sectors, was adversely affected by the Covid-19 pandemic, and the slow implementation of strategies proved inadequate in coping with the uncertainty. Local entrepreneurs require clearer and more supportive measures to reopen their businesses and resume economic activities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Roberto Bruno Gozzoli
- Tourism and Hospitality Management Division, Mahidol University International College, Thailand
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Samsudin EZ, Yasin SM, Ruslan NH, Abdullah NN, Noor AFA, Hair AFA. Socioeconomic impacts of airborne and droplet-borne infectious diseases on industries: a systematic review. BMC Infect Dis 2024; 24:93. [PMID: 38229063 PMCID: PMC10792877 DOI: 10.1186/s12879-024-08993-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/18/2023] [Accepted: 01/08/2024] [Indexed: 01/18/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Recent pandemics have had far-reaching effects on the world's largest economies and amplified the need to estimate the full extent and range of socioeconomic impacts of infectious diseases outbreaks on multi-sectoral industries. This systematic review aims to evaluate the socioeconomic impacts of airborne and droplet-borne infectious diseases outbreaks on industries. METHODS A structured, systematic review was performed according to the PRISMA guidelines. Databases of PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, IDEAS/REPEC, OSHLINE, HSELINE, and NIOSHTIC-2 were reviewed. Study quality appraisal was performed using the Table of Evidence Levels from Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center, Joanna Briggs Institute tools, Mixed Methods Appraisal Tool, and Center of Evidence Based Management case study critical appraisal checklist. Quantitative analysis was not attempted due to the heterogeneity of included studies. A qualitative synthesis of primary studies examining socioeconomic impact of airborne and droplet-borne infectious diseases outbreaks in any industry was performed and a framework based on empirical findings was conceptualized. RESULTS A total of 55 studies conducted from 1984 to 2021 were included, reporting on 46,813,038 participants working in multiple industries across the globe. The quality of articles were good. On the whole, direct socioeconomic impacts of Coronavirus Disease 2019, influenza, influenza A (H1N1), Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, tuberculosis and norovirus outbreaks include increased morbidity, mortality, and health costs. This had then led to indirect impacts including social impacts such as employment crises and reduced workforce size as well as economic impacts such as demand shock, supply chain disruptions, increased supply and production cost, service and business disruptions, and financial and Gross Domestic Product loss, attributable to productivity losses from illnesses as well as national policy responses to contain the diseases. CONCLUSIONS Evidence suggests that airborne and droplet-borne infectious diseases have inflicted severe socioeconomic costs on regional and global industries. Further research is needed to better understand their long-term socioeconomic impacts to support improved industry preparedness and response capacity for outbreaks. Public and private stakeholders at local, national, and international levels must join forces to ensure informed systems and sector-specific cost-sharing strategies for optimal global health and economic security.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ely Zarina Samsudin
- Department of Public Health Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Universiti Teknologi MARA, Sungai Buloh, Malaysia
| | - Siti Munira Yasin
- Department of Public Health Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Universiti Teknologi MARA, Sungai Buloh, Malaysia.
| | - Nur-Hasanah Ruslan
- Faculty of Sports Science and Recreation, Universiti Teknologi MARA, Shah Alam, Malaysia
| | - Nik Nairan Abdullah
- Department of Public Health Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Universiti Teknologi MARA, Sungai Buloh, Malaysia
| | - Ahmad Faiz Azhari Noor
- Occupational Health Division, Department of Occupational Safety and Health, Putrajaya, Malaysia
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Novisky MA, Tostlebe J, Pyrooz D, Sanchez JA. "The COVID-19 pandemic and operational challenges, impacts, and lessons learned: a multi-methods study of U.S. prison systems". HEALTH & JUSTICE 2023; 11:51. [PMID: 38051375 PMCID: PMC10696818 DOI: 10.1186/s40352-023-00253-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/16/2023] [Accepted: 11/16/2023] [Indexed: 12/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The purpose of this study was to examine how the COVID-19 pandemic changed U.S. prison operations and influenced the daily work of prison staff. METHODS In collaboration with the National Institute of Corrections, we administered a survey to 31 state correctional agencies in April 2021 and conducted five focus groups with 62 correctional staff. RESULTS Using a framework of bounded rationality, we find that daily operations were strained, particularly in the areas of staffing, implementing public health policy efforts, and sustaining correctional programming. While prison systems and staff were under-prepared to respond to the pandemic, they attempted to address complex problems with the limited resources they had. CONCLUSIONS Results underscore a need in corrections for prioritizing further developments and reviews of collaborative policies and practices for managing crisis situations. Seeking avenues for leveraging technological innovations to improve operations and facilitate enhanced communication are especially warranted. Finally, meaningful reductions in the prison population, changes in physical infrastructure, and expansions of hiring and retention initiatives are critical for positioning prisons to manage future emergencies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Meghan A Novisky
- Department of Criminology and Sociology, Cleveland State University, 2121 Euclid Avenue, UR 205, Cleveland, OH, 44115, USA.
| | - Jennifer Tostlebe
- School of Criminology and Criminal Justice, University of Nebraska Omaha, Omaha, NE, USA
| | - David Pyrooz
- Department of Sociology, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
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12
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Lokmic-Tomkins Z, Block LJ, Davies S, Reid L, Ronquillo CE, von Gerich H, Peltonen LM. Evaluating the representation of disaster hazards in SNOMED CT: gaps and opportunities. J Am Med Inform Assoc 2023; 30:1762-1772. [PMID: 37558235 PMCID: PMC10586035 DOI: 10.1093/jamia/ocad153] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/17/2023] [Revised: 07/20/2023] [Accepted: 07/21/2023] [Indexed: 08/11/2023] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Climate change, an underlying risk driver of natural disasters, threatens the environmental sustainability, planetary health, and sustainable development goals. Incorporating disaster-related health impacts into electronic health records helps to comprehend their impact on populations, clinicians, and healthcare systems. This study aims to: (1) map the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction and International Science Council (UNDRR-ISC) Hazard Information Profiles to SNOMED CT International, a clinical terminology used by clinicians, to manage patients and provide healthcare services; and (2) to determine the extent of clinical terminologies available to capture disaster-related events. MATERIALS AND METHODS Concepts related to disasters were extracted from the UNDRR-ISC's Hazard Information Profiles and mapped to a health terminology using a procedural framework for standardized clinical terminology mapping. The mapping process involved evaluating candidate matches and creating a final list of matches to determine concept coverage. RESULTS A total of 226 disaster hazard concepts were identified to adversely impact human health. Chemical and biological disaster hazard concepts had better representation than meteorological, hydrological, extraterrestrial, geohazards, environmental, technical, and societal hazard concepts in SNOMED CT. Heatwave, drought, and geographically unique disaster hazards were not found in SNOMED CT. CONCLUSION To enhance clinical reporting of disaster hazards and climate-sensitive health outcomes, the poorly represented and missing concepts in SNOMED CT must be included. Documenting the impacts of climate change on public health using standardized clinical terminology provides the necessary real time data to capture climate-sensitive outcomes. These data are crucial for building climate-resilient healthcare systems, enhanced public health disaster responses and workflows, tracking individual health outcomes, supporting disaster risk reduction modeling, and aiding in disaster preparedness, response, and recovery efforts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zerina Lokmic-Tomkins
- School of Nursing and Midwifery, Faculty of Medicine, Nursing and Health Sciences, Monash University, Clayton, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Lorraine J Block
- School of Nursing, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Shauna Davies
- Faculty of Nursing, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan, Canada
| | - Lisa Reid
- College of Nursing and Health Sciences, Flinders University, Bedford Park, South Australia, Australia
| | | | - Hanna von Gerich
- Department of Nursing Science, University of Turku, Turku, Finland
- Turku University Hospital, Turku, Finland
| | - Laura-Maria Peltonen
- Department of Nursing Science, University of Turku, Turku, Finland
- Turku University Hospital, Turku, Finland
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13
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Sharma S, Pannu J, Chorlton S, Swett JL, Ecker DJ. Threat Net: A Metagenomic Surveillance Network for Biothreat Detection and Early Warning. Health Secur 2023; 21:347-357. [PMID: 37367195 DOI: 10.1089/hs.2022.0160] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/28/2023] Open
Abstract
Early detection of novel pathogens can prevent or substantially mitigate biological incidents, including pandemics. Metagenomic next-generation sequencing (mNGS) of symptomatic clinical samples may enable detection early enough to contain outbreaks, limit international spread, and expedite countermeasure development. In this article, we propose a clinical mNGS architecture we call "Threat Net," which focuses on the hospital emergency department as a high-yield surveillance location. We develop a susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) simulation model to estimate the effectiveness of Threat Net in detecting novel respiratory pathogen outbreaks. Our analysis serves to quantify the value of routine clinical mNGS for respiratory pandemic detection by estimating the cost and epidemiological effectiveness at differing degrees of hospital coverage across the United States. We estimate that a biological threat detection network such as Threat Net could be deployed across hospitals covering 30% of the population in the United States. Threat Net would cost between $400 million and $800 million annually and have a 95% chance of detecting a novel respiratory pathogen with traits of SARS-CoV-2 after 10 emergency department presentations and 79 infections across the United States. Our analyses suggest that implementing Threat Net could help prevent or substantially mitigate the spread of a respiratory pandemic pathogen in the United States.
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Affiliation(s)
- Siddhanth Sharma
- Siddhanth Sharma, MD MPH, is a Public Health Registrar, Metropolitan Communicable Disease Control, Perth, Australia
| | - Jaspreet Pannu
- Jaspreet Pannu, MD, is a Resident Physician, Department of Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA. Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, Baltimore, MD
| | - Sam Chorlton
- Sam Chorlton, MD, D(ABMM), is Chief Executive Officer, BugSeq Bioinformatics, Vancouver, Canada
| | - Jacob L Swett
- Jacob L. Swett, DPhil, is Cofounder, altLabs, Inc., Berkeley, CA
| | - David J Ecker
- David J. Ecker, PhD, is Vice President of Strategic Innovation, Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Carlsbad, CA
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14
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Chan MS, Holloway R, King R, Polya R, Sloan R, Kowalik JC, Ashfield T, Moore LSP, Porter T, Pearson-Stuttard J. An Insurance Value Modeling Approach That Captures the Wider Value of a Novel Antimicrobial to Health Systems, Patients, and the Population. JOURNAL OF HEALTH ECONOMICS AND OUTCOMES RESEARCH 2023; 10:1-9. [PMID: 37485470 PMCID: PMC10359113 DOI: 10.36469/001c.75206] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/23/2023] [Accepted: 05/08/2023] [Indexed: 07/25/2023]
Abstract
Background: Traditional health economic evaluations of antimicrobials currently underestimate their value to wider society. They can be supplemented by additional value elements including insurance value, which captures the value of an antimicrobial in preventing or mitigating impacts of adverse risk events. Despite being commonplace in other sectors, constituents of the impacts and approaches for estimating insurance value have not been investigated. Objectives: This study assessed the insurance value of a novel gram-negative antimicrobial from operational healthcare, wider population health, productivity, and informal care perspectives. Methods: A novel mixed-methods approach was used to model insurance value in the United Kingdom: (1) literature review and multidisciplinary expert workshops to identify risk events for 4 relevant scenarios: ward closures, unavoidable shortage of conventional antimicrobials, viral respiratory pandemics, and catastrophic antimicrobial resistance (AMR); (2) parameterizing mitigable costs and frequencies of risk events across perspectives and scenarios; (3) estimating insurance value through a Monte Carlo simulation model for extreme events and a dynamic disease transmission model. Results: The mean insurance value across all scenarios and perspectives over 10 years in the UK was £718 million, should AMR remain unchanged, where only £134 million related to operational healthcare costs. It would be 50%-70% higher if AMR steadily increased or if a more risk-averse view (1-in-10 year downside) of future events is taken. Discussion: The overall insurance value if AMR remains at current levels (a conservative projection), is over 5 times greater than insurance value from just the operational healthcare costs perspective, traditionally the sole perspective used in health budgeting. Insurance value was generally larger for nationwide or universal (catastrophic AMR, pandemic, and conventional antimicrobial shortages) rather than localized (ward closure) scenarios, across perspectives. Components of this insurance value match previously published estimates of operational costs and mortality impacts. Conclusions: Insurance value of novel antimicrobials can be systematically modeled and substantially augments their traditional health economic value in normal circumstances. These approaches are generalizable to similar health interventions and form a framework for health systems and governments to capture broader value in health technology assessments, improve healthcare access, and increase resilience by planning for adverse scenarios.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mei S Chan
- Health Analytics Lane Clark & Peacock LLP, London, UK
| | | | - Robert King
- Health Analytics Lane Clark & Peacock LLP, London, UK
| | - Rosie Polya
- Health Analytics Lane Clark & Peacock LLP, London, UK
| | - Rebecca Sloan
- Health Analytics Lane Clark & Peacock LLP, London, UK
| | | | | | - Luke S P Moore
- Chelsea and Westminster Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK
- NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare Associated Infections and Antimicrobial Resistance Imperial College London, London, UK
- North West London Pathology Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, London, UK
| | - Thomas Porter
- Health Analytics Lane Clark & Peacock LLP, London, UK
| | - Jonathan Pearson-Stuttard
- Health Analytics Lane Clark & Peacock LLP, London, UK
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics Imperial College London, London, UK
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15
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Lam F, Liao CC, Chen TL, Huang YM, Lee YJ, Chiou HY. Outcomes after surgery in patients with and without recent influenza: a nationwide population-based study. Front Med (Lausanne) 2023; 10:1117885. [PMID: 37358993 PMCID: PMC10288488 DOI: 10.3389/fmed.2023.1117885] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/07/2022] [Accepted: 05/18/2023] [Indexed: 06/28/2023] Open
Abstract
Background The influence of recent influenza infection on perioperative outcomes is not completely understood. Method Using Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Data from 2008 to 2013, we conducted a surgical cohort study, which included 20,544 matched patients with a recent history of influenza and 10,272 matched patients without. The main outcomes were postoperative complications and mortality. We calculated odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the complications and for mortality in patients with a history of influenza within 1-14 days or 15-30 days compared with non-influenza controls. Results Compared with patients who had no influenza, patients with influenza within preoperative days 1-7 had increased risks of postoperative pneumonia (OR 2.22, 95% CI 1.81-2.73), septicemia (OR 1.98, 95% CI 1.70-2.31), acute renal failure (OR 2.10, 95% CI 1.47-3.00), and urinary tract infection (OR 1.45, 95% CI 1.23-1.70). An increased risk of intensive care admission, prolonged length of stay, and higher medical expenditure was noted in patients with history of influenza within 1-14 days. Conclusion We found that there was an association between influenza within 14 days preoperatively and the increased risk of postoperative complications, particularly with the occurrence of influenza within 7 days prior to surgery.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fai Lam
- School of Public Health, College of Public Health, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan
- Department of Anesthesiology, Taipei Medical University Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Chien-Chang Liao
- Department of Anesthesiology, Taipei Medical University Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
- Department of Anesthesiology, School of Medicine, College of Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan
- Anesthesiology and Health Policy Research Center, Taipei Medical University Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
- Research Center of Big Data and Meta-Analysis, Wan Fang Hospital, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan
- School of Chinese Medicine, College of Chinese Medicine, China Medical University, Taichung, Taiwan
| | - Ta-Liang Chen
- Department of Anesthesiology, School of Medicine, College of Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan
- Anesthesiology and Health Policy Research Center, Taipei Medical University Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
- Department of Anesthesiology, Wan Fang Hospital, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Yu-Min Huang
- Department of Surgery, School of Medicine, College of Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan
- Division of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Department of Surgery, Taipei Medical University Hospital, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Yuarn-Jang Lee
- Division of Infectious Disease, Department of Internal Medicine, Shuang Ho Hospital, Taipei Medical University, New Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Hung-Yi Chiou
- School of Public Health, College of Public Health, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan
- Institute of Population Health Sciences, National Health Research Institutes, Miaoli, Taiwan
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16
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Liu M, Zhao Y, Shi Z, Zink JI, Yu Q. Virus-like Magnetic Mesoporous Silica Particles as a Universal Vaccination Platform against Pathogenic Infections. ACS NANO 2023; 17:6899-6911. [PMID: 36961475 DOI: 10.1021/acsnano.3c00644] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
Vaccination is the most important way of population protection from life-threatening pathogenic infections. However, its efficiency is frequently compromised by a failure of strong antigen presentation and immune activation. Herein, we developed virus-like magnetic mesoporous silica nanoparticles as a universal vaccination platform (termed MagParV) for preventing pathogenic infections. This platform was constructed by integrating synthetic biology-based endoplasmic reticulum-targeting vesicles with magnetic mesoporous silica particles. This platform exhibited high antigen-loading capacity, strongly targeting the endoplasmic reticulum and promoting antigen presentation in dendritic cells. After prime-boost vaccination, the antigen-loading MagParV with AMF drastically elicited specific antibody production against corresponding antigens of fungal, bacterial, and viral pathogens. A systemic infection model further revealed that the platform effectively protected the mice from severe fungal systemic infections. This study realized synthetic biology-facilitated green manufacturing of vaccines, which is promising for magnetism-activated vaccination against different kinds of pathogenic infections.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mingyang Liu
- Key Laboratory of Molecular Microbiology and Technology, Ministry of Education, Department of Microbiology, College of Life Sciences, Nankai University, Tianjin 300071, People's Republic of China
- State Key Laboratory of Medicinal Chemical Biology, Nankai University, Tianjin 300071, People's Republic of China
| | - Yan Zhao
- Key Laboratory of Molecular Microbiology and Technology, Ministry of Education, Department of Microbiology, College of Life Sciences, Nankai University, Tianjin 300071, People's Republic of China
| | - Zhishang Shi
- Key Laboratory of Molecular Microbiology and Technology, Ministry of Education, Department of Microbiology, College of Life Sciences, Nankai University, Tianjin 300071, People's Republic of China
| | - Jeffrey I Zink
- Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, University of California, Los Angeles, California 90095, United States
- California Nano Systems Institute (CNSI), University of California, Los Angeles, California 90095, United States
| | - Qilin Yu
- Key Laboratory of Molecular Microbiology and Technology, Ministry of Education, Department of Microbiology, College of Life Sciences, Nankai University, Tianjin 300071, People's Republic of China
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17
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Chan MS, Kowalik JC, Ashfield T, Pearson-Stuttard J. Improving health evaluations to capture wider value of therapeutics and incentivise innovation. Front Public Health 2023; 11:1119652. [PMID: 37064703 PMCID: PMC10102525 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1119652] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/03/2023] [Accepted: 03/07/2023] [Indexed: 04/03/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Mei Sum Chan
- Health Analytics, Lane Clark & Peacock LLP, London, United Kingdom
| | | | - Tom Ashfield
- UK Medical Affairs - Anti-infectives, Pfizer Ltd., Tadworth, United Kingdom
| | - Jonathan Pearson-Stuttard
- Health Analytics, Lane Clark & Peacock LLP, London, United Kingdom
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
- *Correspondence: Jonathan Pearson-Stuttard
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18
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Zhang W, Wu Y, Wen B, Zhang Y, Wang Y, Yin W, Sun S, Wei X, Sun H, Zhang Z, Li S, Guo Y. Non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19 reduced the incidence of infectious diseases: a controlled interrupted time-series study. Infect Dis Poverty 2023; 12:15. [PMID: 36895021 PMCID: PMC9996566 DOI: 10.1186/s40249-023-01066-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/18/2022] [Accepted: 02/06/2023] [Indexed: 03/11/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been implemented worldwide to suppress the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, few studies have evaluated the effect of NPIs on other infectious diseases and none has assessed the avoided disease burden associated with NPIs. We aimed to assess the effect of NPIs on the incidence of infectious diseases during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and evaluate the health economic benefits related to the reduction in the incidence of infectious diseases. METHODS Data on 10 notifiable infectious diseases across China during 2010-2020 were extracted from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. A two-stage controlled interrupted time-series design with a quasi-Poisson regression model was used to examine the impact of NPIs on the incidence of infectious diseases. The analysis was first performed at the provincial-level administrative divisions (PLADs) level in China, then the PLAD-specific estimates were pooled using a random-effect meta-analysis. RESULTS A total of 61,393,737 cases of 10 infectious diseases were identified. The implementation of NPIs was associated with 5.13 million (95% confidence interval [CI] 3.45‒7.42) avoided cases and USD 1.77 billion (95% CI 1.18‒2.57) avoided hospital expenditures in 2020. There were 4.52 million (95% CI 3.00‒6.63) avoided cases for children and adolescents, corresponding to 88.2% of total avoided cases. The top leading cause of avoided burden attributable to NPIs was influenza [avoided percentage (AP): 89.3%; 95% CI 84.5‒92.6]. Socioeconomic status and population density were effect modifiers. CONCLUSIONS NPIs for COVID-19 could effectively control the prevalence of infectious diseases, with patterns of risk varying by socioeconomic status. These findings have important implications for informing targeted strategies to prevent infectious diseases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wenyi Zhang
- Division of Disease Surveillance, Chinese PLA Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, 100071, China
| | - Yao Wu
- School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Level 2, 553 St Kilda Road, Melbourne, VIC, 3004, Australia
| | - Bo Wen
- School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Level 2, 553 St Kilda Road, Melbourne, VIC, 3004, Australia
| | - Yongming Zhang
- Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, China-Japan Friendship Hospital, Beijing, 100029, China
| | - Yong Wang
- Division of Disease Surveillance, Chinese PLA Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, 100071, China
| | - Wenwu Yin
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early-warning on Infectious Disease, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, 102206, China
| | - Shanhua Sun
- Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Beijing, 100013, China
| | - Xianyu Wei
- Division of Disease Surveillance, Chinese PLA Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, 100071, China
| | - Hailong Sun
- Division of Disease Surveillance, Chinese PLA Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, 100071, China
| | - Zhijie Zhang
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200032, China
| | - Shanshan Li
- School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Level 2, 553 St Kilda Road, Melbourne, VIC, 3004, Australia.
| | - Yuming Guo
- School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Level 2, 553 St Kilda Road, Melbourne, VIC, 3004, Australia.
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19
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Field E, Strathearn M, Boyd-Skinner C, Dyda A. Usefulness of linked data for infectious disease events: a systematic review. Epidemiol Infect 2023; 151:e46. [PMID: 36843485 PMCID: PMC10052405 DOI: 10.1017/s0950268823000316] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/13/2022] [Revised: 01/20/2023] [Accepted: 02/10/2023] [Indexed: 02/28/2023] Open
Abstract
Surveillance is a key public health function to enable early detection of infectious disease events and inform public health action. Data linkage may improve the depth of data for response to infectious disease events. This study aimed to describe the uses of linked data for infectious disease events. A systematic review was conducted using Pubmed, CINAHL and Web of Science. Studies were included if they used data linkage for an acute infectious disease event (e.g. outbreak of disease). We summarised the event, study aims and designs; data sets; linkage methods; outcomes reported; and benefits and limitations. Fifty-four studies were included. Uses of linkage for infectious disease events included assessment of severity of disease and risk factors; improved case finding and contact tracing; and vaccine uptake, safety and effectiveness. The ability to conduct larger scale population level studies was identified as a benefit, in particular for rarer exposures, risk factors or outcomes. Limitations included timeliness, data quality and inability to collect additional variables. This review demonstrated multiple uses of data linkage for infectious disease events. As infectious disease events occur without warning, there is a need to establish pre-approved protocols and the infrastructure for data-linkage to enhance information available during an event.
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Affiliation(s)
- Emma Field
- National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia
- Menzies School of Health Research, Charles Darwin University, Darwin, Australia
| | - Melanie Strathearn
- School of Population Health, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia
| | | | - Amalie Dyda
- School of Population Health, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia
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20
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Keshavarzi A, Horry HR. Bayesian estimation of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with health disaster risk. STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT : RESEARCH JOURNAL 2023; 37:1199-1211. [PMID: 36714448 PMCID: PMC9857921 DOI: 10.1007/s00477-022-02357-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 12/02/2022] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
Pandemics are not new, but they continue to prevail in the last three decades. A variety of reasons such as globalization, trade growth, urbanization, human behavior change, and the rise of the prevalence of viral diseases among animals can account for this issue. Outbreaks of COVID-19 indicated that viral diseases have spread easily among nations, influencing their economic stability. In this vein, the motivation behind the present study was to get an understanding of the effect of the rise of the health disaster risk on the dynamics of Iran's macroeconomic variables by using Bayesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium. As opposed to Computable General Equilibrium models, DSGE models can be evaluated in a stochastic environment. Since the duration of the virus outbreak and its effect on the economy is not known, it is more appropriate to use these models. The results demonstrated that increased health disaster risk has a remarkable negative effect on macroeconomic variables. According to the findings of the research and the significance of public vaccination as an essential solution for improving health status and quality of life, it was suggested that the government pave the path for the thriving of businesses and socio-economic activities as early as possible by employing specific policies such as tax exemption or budget allocation for vaccine manufacturing companies or importers.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ali Keshavarzi
- Faculty of Management and Economics, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran
| | - Hamid Reza Horry
- Faculty of Management and Economics, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran
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21
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Novel quinazolinone disulfide analogues as pqs quorum sensing inhibitors against Pseudomonas aeruginosa. Bioorg Chem 2023; 130:106226. [DOI: 10.1016/j.bioorg.2022.106226] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/01/2022] [Revised: 10/09/2022] [Accepted: 10/21/2022] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
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22
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Patel SK, Sharma K, Agrawal A, K C N, Niranjan AK, Pandey MK, Arya N, M M, Rana J, Tiwari SP. Viral spillover to humans: could Langya (LayV) virus cause a pandemic? QJM 2022; 116:332-334. [PMID: 36534912 DOI: 10.1093/qjmed/hcac278] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/13/2022] [Revised: 12/13/2022] [Accepted: 12/14/2022] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Decades have been witnessing clusters of zoonotic diseases. Human beings at the peak of evolution should not be empowered to alter the environmental homeostasis. Primitive organisms are more rooted to mutate and adapt as per the need or turmoil. Once humans come in the vicinity of these organisms normally residing in their native niche, nature has to pay the cost. Disease outbreaks mostly caused due to unnecessary anthropogenic activities. The threat is that the repercussions are taken for granted or hided wreaking havoc in developing and developed economies leading to an outbreak, an epidemic or a pandemic. The worst influenza outbreak in the world was the 1918 flu that killed nearly 50 million people around the world and modern strains still have an annual death toll in thousands, so the flu is no trifling matter even in a world still facing SARS-CoV-2. Recently, researchers estimated the expected yearly cost of pandemic influenza at roughly $500 billion (0.6 percent of global income), including both lost income and the intrinsic cost of elevated mortality.1.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shailesh Kumar Patel
- Department of Veterinary Pathology, College of Veterinary Science and Animal Husbandry, Rewa, M.P., India
| | - Kashmi Sharma
- Department of Translational Medicine, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Bhopal, M.P., India
| | - Aditya Agrawal
- Department of Veterinary Physiology and Biochemistry, College of Veterinary Science and Animal Husbandry, Rewa, M.P., India
| | - Nikhil K C
- Department of Veterinary Physiology and Biochemistry, College of Veterinary Science and Animal Husbandry, Rewa, M.P., India
| | - Ankush Kiran Niranjan
- Department of Veterinary Microbiology, College of Veterinary Science and Animal Husbandry, Rewa, M.P., India
| | - Megha Katare Pandey
- Department of Translational Medicine, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Bhopal, M.P., India
| | - Neha Arya
- Department of Translational Medicine, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Bhopal, M.P., India
| | - Murali M
- Department of Translational Medicine, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Bhopal, M.P., India
| | - Jigyasa Rana
- Department of Veterinary Anatomy, Faculty of Veterinary and Animal Sciences, RGSC, Banaras Hindu University, Barkachha, Mirzapur, U.P., India
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23
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Jin L, Choi JH, Kim S, Cho K. Slack Resources, Corporate Performance, and COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from China. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2022; 19:14354. [PMID: 36361231 PMCID: PMC9657755 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph192114354] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/28/2022] [Revised: 10/27/2022] [Accepted: 11/01/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
COVID-19 has caused tremendous damage to global economies, and similar health crises are expected to happen again. This study tests whether slack resources would enable companies to prepare for such uncertainties. Specifically, we explored the influence of the COVID-19 patient occurrence on corporate financial performance and the buffering effect of financial slacks using Chinese listed companies' data during 2021. We also examined whether this effect differs across firms' financial health and industry. Test results are as follows. First, consistent with the recent studies on pandemics, the degree of COVID-19 prevalence had a negative impact on the Chinese company's financial performance, and slack resources offset this adverse effect. Second, slack's buffering effects appeared mostly in financially constrained companies. Third, such effects mostly appeared in industries vulnerable to the COVID-19 shock. In the business environment of 2021, adapted to COVID-19, our main test result seems to mainly come from companies with a greater need for slack. Our tests imply that, despite differences in the degree of accessibility to resources, excess resources help companies overcome the COVID-19 crisis, which means that firms can more efficiently respond to economic shocks such as COVID-19 if they reserve past profits as free resources. This study contributes to the literature in that there is limited research on the slack resources' buffering effect on the COVID-19 shock and that this study works as a robustness test as it uses data from one of the East Asian regions at a time when the control of COVID-19 was relatively consistent and successful, which can limit the effect of COVID-19 and slacks.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ling Jin
- Department of Accounting, Yanbian University, 977 Gongyuan Rd., Yanji 133002, China
| | - Jun Hyeok Choi
- Department of Accounting, Dongguk University, 30 Pildongro 1-gil, Jung-gu, Seoul 04620, Korea
| | - Saerona Kim
- Department of Tax & Accounting, Gyeongsang National University, 501 Jinju-daero, Jinju-si 52828, Korea
| | - Kwanghee Cho
- Department of Accounting, Dongguk University, 30 Pildongro 1-gil, Jung-gu, Seoul 04620, Korea
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The COVID-19 pandemic uncertainty, investor sentiment, and global equity markets: Evidence from the time-frequency co-movements. THE NORTH AMERICAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND FINANCE 2022; 62:101712. [PMCID: PMC9134792 DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2022.101712] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
We use daily data of the Google search engine volume index (GSVI) to capture the pandemic uncertainty and examine its effect on stock market activity (return, volatility, and illiquidity) of major world economies while controlling the effect of the Financial and Economic Attitudes Revealed by Search (FEARS) sentiment index. We use a time–frequency based wavelet approach comprising wavelet coherence and phase difference for our empirical assessment. During the early spread of the COVID-19, our results suggest that pandemic uncertainty, and FEARS sentiment strongly co-move, and increased pandemic uncertainty leads to pessimistic investor sentiment. Furthermore, our partial wavelet analysis results indicate a synchronization relationship between pandemic uncertainty and stock market activities across G7 countries and the world market. Our results are robust to the inclusion of alternative pandemic fear measure in the form of equity market volatility infectious disease tracker. The pandemic uncertainty and associated sentiment implications could be one plausible reason for increased volatility and illiquidity in the market, and hence, policymakers should look upon this issue for the financial market stability perspective.
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What does COVID-19 teach us about the role of national culture? Evidence from social distancing restrictions. JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MARKETS, INSTITUTIONS AND MONEY 2022; 80:101647. [PMCID: PMC9450466 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2022.101647] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/15/2022] [Accepted: 09/01/2022] [Indexed: 05/30/2023]
Abstract
In this paper, we exploit the immediacy, magnitude, and global extent of the COVID-19 shock to investigate the role of national culture in determining differences in publicly imposed social distancing restrictions. Employing the Stringency Index of the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker database for 85 countries, we find that countries with higher values of Hofstede’s power distance adopted more stringent social distancing measures in response to COVID-19. In contrast, countries with more heightened individualism and long-term orientation implemented fewer such policies. Further, culture impacts the quickness to adopt social distancing policies. Results are robust to using alternative measures of national culture and controlling for endogeneity. They are also robust to extending the sample to the end of June 2021, using daily observations. Results suggest that societies rich in the cultural qualities of individualism and long-term orientation, often seen as promoting economic cooperation and stability, are less effective at dealing with sudden and transformative public policy crises than those with high levels of power distance. Results confirm the potent role of national culture in impacting institutions.
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White knight in dark days? Supply chain finance firms, blockchain, and the COVID-19 pandemic. INFORMATION & MANAGEMENT 2022. [PMCID: PMC9088173 DOI: 10.1016/j.im.2022.103661] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
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Abstract
The purpose of this research is to determine the organizational support and role played by MSME owners who have businesses based on financial technology during the COVID-19 and earlier periods. It also aims to determine the priorities that need to be considered in organizations in various conditions through fintech-based training. This is an experimental research with training given to the experimental group and none to the control. A paired-samples t-test analysis technique was used to determine the significant differences in the same group under different conditions. The result showed that fintech-based training is important in supporting organizations in the business groups that received training and those that have significant differences. Therefore, this training is needed, especially during crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Implementation of a Comprehensive Testing Protocol for a Rapidly Manufactured Mechanical Ventilator. OPEN RESPIRATORY ARCHIVES 2022. [PMID: 37496578 PMCID: PMC9212985 DOI: 10.1016/j.opresp.2022.100189] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Abstract
Introduction The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted that surges in critical care demand can overwhelm existing healthcare infrastructures, most evident in the acute shortage of mechanical ventilators across the globe. Despite efforts to encourage urgent authorization of newly developed emergency ventilators, the currently available testing protocols are not internationally accepted, standardized and none address testing in clinical settings. The aim of this study was to compile and perform a comprehensive clinical testing protocol for a newly developed emergency ventilator. Methods Using previously available guidance, we compiled a sequential testing protocol with a: 1. preclinical, 2. safety testing, 3. clinician usability test and 4. clinical stage involving respiratory failure patients. The protocol was then tested on the Luca ventilator, a mechanical ventilator capable of sophisticated ventilator settings rapidly developed specifically in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Results During the pre-clinical/safety stages, the ventilator produced pressure and volume changes deemed acceptable by the Rapidly Manufactured Ventilator System guideline. Furthermore, our protocol allowed the identification of a number of issues that were easily resolved with minor software adjustments. Usability was excellent (overall System Usability Scale score = 90.5). Clinical testing revealed that a sampling frame of 15 critically ill patients was sufficiently powered to detect any significant, clinically relevant differences between the Luca ventilator and a standard ICU ventilator. Conclusions The ventilator was accurate, reliable, safe, and user-friendly. The implementation of a comprehensive, standardized pre-clinical/clinical testing protocol is feasible, potentially enabling the safe and timely emergency authorization of rapidly developed mechanical ventilators crucial in pandemic situations.
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Consumer behavioral intention to use restaurant, concert and education services online during and after the COVID-19 pandemic: evidence from Brazil. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF QUALITY AND SERVICE SCIENCES 2022. [DOI: 10.1108/ijqss-04-2021-0056] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to examine the determinants of consumer behavioral intention to use the restaurant, concert and education services online during and after the COVID-19 pandemic.
Design/methodology/approach
A conceptual model based on the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT) was tested via structural equation modeling by using data collected from a sample of 420 Brazilian consumers.
Findings
The results showed that performance expectancy and social influence are the most critical determinants of consumer behavioral intention to use services online during the pandemic. The results also provided evidence that the pandemic has generated significant impacts on future consumer behavior.
Originality/value
This study contributes in a multidisciplinary way to the literature on hospitality, entertainment and education services, by applying the UTAUT theory and testing the model during and after the COVID-19 pandemic context. Moreover, this study provides empirical evidence from Brazil, one of the most affected countries by COVID-19.
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Park E, Kim WH, Kim SB. How does COVID-19 differ from previous crises? A comparative study of health-related crisis research in the tourism and hospitality context. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF HOSPITALITY MANAGEMENT 2022; 103:103199. [PMID: 36540129 PMCID: PMC9756355 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijhm.2022.103199] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/24/2021] [Revised: 12/25/2021] [Accepted: 03/01/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
The importance of the risk to tourism and hospitality operations from pandemic-related crises has increased. Therefore, the current study offers a literature review targeting tourism and hospitality stakeholders' perceptions of past diseases and has three objectives: (1) Explore major topics from previous research on infectious diseases using topic modeling; (2) compare non-COVID-19 and COVID-19 crises; (3) investigate research topics in the tourism and hospitality industries. To meet our research objectives, we reviewed published pandemic-related articles in the tourism and hospitality literature since the year 2000. Based on the results, we first identified nine key topics related to infectious diseases (i.e., policy, human resources, branding, resilience, technology, global or community change, risk perception, disease impact, and lifestyle). Second, we suggest the application of different topic weights in non-COVID-19 and COVID-19 research. Third, we found that it is appropriate to apply different topic weights in tourism and hospitality research.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eunhye Park
- Department of Food Nutrition, Gachon University, Seongnam-si, South Korea
| | - Woo-Hyuk Kim
- IoT and Big Data Research Center, Department of Consumer Science, Incheon National University, Incheon, South Korea
| | - Sung-Bum Kim
- Department of Business Administration, Inha University, Incheon, South Korea
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31
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Costantini G, Di Sarno M, Preti E, Richetin J, Perugini M. Personality in a naturally occurring strong situation: Unique effects of HEXACO traits on COVID-19 mitigation. Acta Psychol (Amst) 2022; 224:103529. [PMID: 35151956 PMCID: PMC8828359 DOI: 10.1016/j.actpsy.2022.103529] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/22/2021] [Revised: 10/08/2021] [Accepted: 02/04/2022] [Indexed: 11/27/2022] Open
Abstract
The first Italian lockdown during COVID-19 pandemic constituted an example of strong situation. Under this context, we investigated associations of HEXACO personality with COVID-19 mitigation behaviors (self-reported hygiene, distancing, going out). We tested unique associations through regularized regressions and out-of-sample prediction after establishing the best level of analysis (HEXACO traits, facets, items). Personality always explained out-of-sample variance over and above demographics, COVID-related knowledge, concern, impacts, and goals. Hygiene and distancing were best predicted by HEXACO traits, whereas facets constituted the best level for the prediction of going out. In general, honesty-humility (trait or facets) was the clearest predictor of safer behaviors. Results corroborate the relevance of personality even in strong situations, as well as its importance for COVID-19 mitigation.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Marco Di Sarno
- Department of Psychology, University of Milan-Bicocca, Italy; Personality Disorder Lab, Milan-Parma, Italy.
| | - Emanuele Preti
- Department of Psychology, University of Milan-Bicocca, Italy; Personality Disorder Lab, Milan-Parma, Italy
| | | | - Marco Perugini
- Department of Psychology, University of Milan-Bicocca, Italy
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32
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Li S, Liu C, Wu Z, Ma Y, Chen B, Gao S, Chen Z, Xin S. The Impact of Perceptions of Positive COVID-19 Information on Travel Motivation and Intention: Evidence From Chinese University Students. Front Psychol 2022; 13:871330. [PMID: 35432064 PMCID: PMC9008760 DOI: 10.3389/fpsyg.2022.871330] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/09/2022] [Accepted: 02/28/2022] [Indexed: 01/18/2023] Open
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has influenced the tourism industry in various ways, including tourists' travel motivations and intentions. Unlike previous studies that have focused on the dark side of the pandemic, this study adds the dimension of perceptions of positive information on COVID-19 to the Theory of Planned Behavior to explore their influence on travel motivation and intention. A total of 470 valid questionnaires were collected from a sample of Chinese university students. The results showed that the students' perceptions of positive COVID-19 information positively impacted their travel intentions through the variables of perceived behavioral control, travel attitudes, and travel motivations. Perceived behavioral control was the mediating variable that most explained the impact of perceptions of positive COVID-19 information on travel motivation and intention. This study contributes to the understanding of the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on tourism and of university students' travel motivations and intentions. It also offers implications for the tourism industry to formulate relevant recovery strategies during and after the pandemic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shanshan Li
- School of Physical Education, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Chenyu Liu
- Department of MA Filmmaking, University for the Creative Arts, Farnham, United Kingdom
| | - Zhusheng Wu
- School of Physical Education, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Ying Ma
- State Information Center, Beijing, China
| | - Baoxia Chen
- School of Physical Education, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Shiying Gao
- School of Physical Education, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Zichao Chen
- School of Physical Education, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Shuang Xin
- School of Tourism and Urban-rural Planning, Zhejiang Gongshang University, Hangzhou, China
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33
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Responses of the International Bond Markets to COVID-19 Containment Measures. JOURNAL OF RISK AND FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/jrfm15030127] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Using an international sample during the COVID-19 outbreak, our study gives evidence that COVID-19 containment measures impact volatility in the international bond markets in different ways. We found that the positive effect of increasing new COVID-19 vaccinations markedly mitigates bond market volatility, while non-pharmaceutical government interventions resembling bad news increase volatility in bond markets. Besides this, changes in total COVID-19 cases and total deaths have co-movement and a significant relationship with this volatility. Our results imply that the investors’ responses to the trigger of increased uncertainty seem to differ in a way that depends on bad or good news as a reflection of the possibility of pandemic control and the health of the economy. The mass vaccinations not only signal a lower probability of stringent government responses to the pandemic but also stabilize investors’ behavior and mitigate compliance fears to open a period of safe living with coronavirus. Our findings are still robust when using alternative measures of independent variables and different forecasting models of conditional volatility.
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34
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Bernstein AS, Ando AW, Loch-Temzelides T, Vale MM, Li BV, Li H, Busch J, Chapman CA, Kinnaird M, Nowak K, Castro MC, Zambrana-Torrelio C, Ahumada JA, Xiao L, Roehrdanz P, Kaufman L, Hannah L, Daszak P, Pimm SL, Dobson AP. The costs and benefits of primary prevention of zoonotic pandemics. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2022; 8:eabl4183. [PMID: 35119921 PMCID: PMC8816336 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abl4183] [Citation(s) in RCA: 90] [Impact Index Per Article: 30.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/12/2021] [Accepted: 12/14/2021] [Indexed: 05/15/2023]
Abstract
The lives lost and economic costs of viral zoonotic pandemics have steadily increased over the past century. Prominent policymakers have promoted plans that argue the best ways to address future pandemic catastrophes should entail, "detecting and containing emerging zoonotic threats." In other words, we should take actions only after humans get sick. We sharply disagree. Humans have extensive contact with wildlife known to harbor vast numbers of viruses, many of which have not yet spilled into humans. We compute the annualized damages from emerging viral zoonoses. We explore three practical actions to minimize the impact of future pandemics: better surveillance of pathogen spillover and development of global databases of virus genomics and serology, better management of wildlife trade, and substantial reduction of deforestation. We find that these primary pandemic prevention actions cost less than 1/20th the value of lives lost each year to emerging viral zoonoses and have substantial cobenefits.
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Affiliation(s)
- Aaron S. Bernstein
- Boston Children’s Hospital and the Center for Climate, Health and the Global Environment, Boston, MA 02115, USA
| | - Amy W. Ando
- Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, IL 61801, USA
- Resources for the Future, 1616 P Street NW, Washington, DC 20036, USA
| | - Ted Loch-Temzelides
- Department of Economics and Baker Institute for Public Policy, Rice University, Houston, TX 77005, USA
| | - Mariana M. Vale
- Ecology Department, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
- National Institute of Science and Technology in Ecology, Evolution and Biodiversity Conservation, Goiania, Brazil
| | - Binbin V. Li
- Environment Research Center, Duke Kunshan University, Kunshan, Jiangsu Province 215317, China
- Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, USA
| | - Hongying Li
- EcoHealth Alliance, 520 Eighth Avenue, New York, NY 10018, USA
| | - Jonah Busch
- Moore Center for Science, Conservation International, Arlington, VA 22202, USA
| | - Colin A. Chapman
- Wilson Center, 1300 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20004, USA
- Center for the Advanced Study of Human Paleobiology, George Washington University, Washington, DC 20004, USA
- School of Life Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa
- Shaanxi Key Laboratory for Animal Conservation, Northwest University, Xi’an, China
| | - Margaret Kinnaird
- Practice Leader, Wildlife, WWF International, The Mvuli, Mvuli Road, Westlands, Kenya
| | - Katarzyna Nowak
- The Safina Center, 80 North Country Road, Setauket, NY 11733, USA
| | - Marcia C. Castro
- Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02215, USA
| | | | - Jorge A. Ahumada
- Moore Center for Science, Conservation International, Arlington, VA 22202, USA
| | - Lingyun Xiao
- Department of Health and Environmental Sciences, Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool University, Suzhou, Jiangsu Province 215123, China
| | - Patrick Roehrdanz
- Moore Center for Science, Conservation International, Arlington, VA 22202, USA
| | - Les Kaufman
- Department of Biology and Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future, Boston University, Boston, MA 02215, USA
| | - Lee Hannah
- Moore Center for Science, Conservation International, Arlington, VA 22202, USA
| | - Peter Daszak
- EcoHealth Alliance, 520 Eighth Avenue, New York, NY 10018, USA
| | - Stuart L. Pimm
- Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, USA
| | - Andrew P. Dobson
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA
- Santa Fe Institute, Hyde Park Road, Santa Fe, NM 87501, USA
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Ghobadian A, Han T, Zhang X, O'Regan N, Troise C, Bresciani S, Narayanan V. COVID‐19 Pandemic: The Interplay Between Firm Disruption and Managerial Attention Focus. BRITISH JOURNAL OF MANAGEMENT 2022; 33:390-409. [PMCID: PMC8652572 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8551.12556] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/13/2020] [Revised: 10/05/2021] [Accepted: 10/07/2021] [Indexed: 05/26/2023]
Abstract
Pandemics and epidemics occur regularly, yet their impact on firm behaviours is under‐researched. COVID‐19 provides a unique opportunity to examine the impact of a once‐in‐a‐century pandemic – given its scope, swift spread, health and economic devastation – on firms’ behaviours. Attention is the critical and initial step of the environmental adaptation process. In this paper, we draw on two complementary theories – contingency and attention‐based view – and examine the relationship between disruption experienced by firms and their COVID‐19 attention focus – a sudden exogenous shock. Industry environments may influence which signals attract managerial attention; hence, we examine if firm disruption–COVID‐19 attention focus is moderated by industry dynamism. Drawing on the publicly available data and using a sample of 1,861 US and 1,154 Chinese firms – two diametrically opposite situational contexts – we test the generalizability of our hypotheses. We find a positive relationship between firm disruption and COVID‐19 attention focus for the US sample and that industry dynamism negatively moderates this relationship. In the case of Chinese firms, these relationships were insignificant. Further analysis using topic modelling revealed that business–government relationships accounted for this difference.
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Affiliation(s)
- Abby Ghobadian
- Henley Business SchoolUniversity of ReadingHenley‐on‐ThamesUK
| | - Tian Han
- Nottingham University Business SchoolUniversity of NottinghamNottinghamUK
| | - Xuezhi Zhang
- International School of Business and FinanceSun Yat‐sen UniversityZhuhaiChina
| | | | - Ciro Troise
- University of Campania ‘Luigi Vanvitelli’CasertaItaly
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36
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Pal I, Shaw R, Dhungana G. COVID-19 pandemic, global spread, issues, and challenges. PANDEMIC RISK, RESPONSE, AND RESILIENCE 2022. [PMCID: PMC9212249 DOI: 10.1016/b978-0-323-99277-0.00021-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
COVID-19 pandemic undoubtedly has a long-term implication for various aspects of governance. The coupled impacts of COVID-19 pandemic and natural hazards in global perspectives provided the opportunities to researchers, academicians, decision-makers, and practitioners to opening up new research avenues and policy requirements. Integrated assessment to quantify the societal consequences of the pandemic is the need of the hour to develop a comprehensive global response and recovery plan to regain the unprecedented impacts to global governance. The book is an attempt to conduct the assessment for regaining global phenomena; it is important to understand the cutting-edge vulnerability and deprivation to address inequalities between countries and shifting modality in risk governance. The case studies of COVID-19 pandemic impacts, governance, and consequences have been analyzed from various perspectives at the local, national, and regional levels.
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37
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Rösch AL, Härting RC, Gakharia S. The transformation of global value chains in the age of Covid-19 and Digitization. PROCEDIA COMPUTER SCIENCE 2022; 207:2474-2482. [PMID: 36275386 PMCID: PMC9578949 DOI: 10.1016/j.procs.2022.09.305] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/06/2022]
Abstract
Almost everyone on the globe had to adjust to new conditions as a result of Covid-19 in conjunction with digitization. Contact and entry limitations damaged global business, trade and social connections. In addition, there is an increasing impact of digitization in supply chain. Regarding these disruptions current publications emphasize that global value chains are transforming to become more resilient. This study analyzes potential factors that might increase resilience in such a dynamic environment. The research is based on a quantitative empirical study to test the formulated hypotheses. The research questions were investigated trough a survey with logistics professionals. Two hypotheses were established as significant throughout the study. These are the robustness and responsiveness of global value chains, which have a substantial impact on their resilience. Both are determined direct or indirect by digital technologies. The complexity of global value chains had no discernible effect on the resilience of the system. A structural equation model is used to analyze the data's processing. This is achieved via a hypothesis model. As a result, major implications on global value chains' resilience can be found.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anna-Lena Rösch
- Aalen University of Applied Sciences, Beethovenstr. 1, 73430 Aalen, Germany
| | | | - Sopiko Gakharia
- Aalen University of Applied Sciences, Beethovenstr. 1, 73430 Aalen, Germany
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38
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Kumar S. The global impact of pandemics on world economy and public health response. COMPUTATIONAL APPROACHES FOR NOVEL THERAPEUTIC AND DIAGNOSTIC DESIGNING TO MITIGATE SARS-COV-2 INFECTION 2022. [PMCID: PMC9300556 DOI: 10.1016/b978-0-323-91172-6.00022-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Abstract
Since the dawn of the human era on earth, pandemics of human diseases have proved to be stumbling blocks to endeavors of growth and prosperity. There are historical mentions of pandemics and epidemics every few hundred years or so. The black plague, smallpox, cholera, plague, influenza, etc., have been reported variously in human history as reasons for considerable human misery in terms of both losses of lives and wealth. Pandemics have been estimated to affect the economy both positively and negatively. The current Coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic has brought to the forefront the need and means to explore global health catastrophes.
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Wood S, Harrison SE, Judd N, Bellis MA, Hughes K, Jones A. The impact of behavioural risk factors on communicable diseases: a systematic review of reviews. BMC Public Health 2021; 21:2110. [PMID: 34789209 PMCID: PMC8596356 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-021-12148-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/07/2021] [Accepted: 10/22/2021] [Indexed: 12/24/2022] Open
Abstract
Background The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has highlighted that individuals with behavioural risk factors commonly associated with non-communicable diseases (NCDs), such as smoking, harmful alcohol use, obesity, and physical inactivity, are more likely to experience severe symptoms from COVID-19. These risk factors have been shown to increase the risk of NCDs, but less is known about their broader influence on communicable diseases. Taking a wide focus on a range of common communicable diseases, this review aimed to synthesise research examining the impact of behavioural risk factors commonly associated with NCDs on risks of contracting, or having more severe outcomes from, communicable diseases. Methods Literature searches identified systematic reviews and meta-analyses that examined the association between behavioural risk factors (alcohol, smoking, illicit drug use, physical inactivity, obesity and poor diet) and the contraction/severity of common communicable diseases, including infection or associated pathogens. An a priori, prospectively registered protocol was followed (PROSPERO; registration number CRD42020223890). Results Fifty-three systematic reviews were included, of which 36 were also meta-analyses. Reviews focused on: tuberculosis, human immunodeficiency virus, hepatitis C virus, hepatitis B virus, invasive bacterial diseases, pneumonia, influenza, and COVID-19. Twenty-one reviews examined the association between behavioural risk factors and communicable disease contraction and 35 examined their association with communicable disease outcomes (three examined their association with both contraction and outcomes). Fifty out of 53 reviews (94%) concluded that at least one of the behavioural risk factors studied increased the risk of contracting or experiencing worse health outcomes from a communicable disease. Across all reviews, effect sizes, where calculated, ranged from 0.83 to 8.22. Conclusions Behavioural risk factors play a significant role in the risk of contracting and experiencing more severe outcomes from communicable diseases. Prevention of communicable diseases is likely to be most successful if it involves the prevention of behavioural risk factors commonly associated with NCDs. These findings are important for understanding risks associated with communicable disease, and timely, given the COVID-19 pandemic and the need for improvements in future pandemic preparedness. Addressing behavioural risk factors should be an important part of work to build resilience against any emerging and future epidemics and pandemics. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-021-12148-y.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sara Wood
- Policy and International Health, World Health Organization Collaborating Centre on Investment for Health and Well-being, Public Health Wales, Wrexham, UK
| | - Sophie E Harrison
- Public Health Collaborating Unit, School of Medical and Health Sciences, Bangor University, Wrexham, UK.,Institute for Applied Human Physiology, School of Human and Behavioural Sciences, Bangor University, Bangor, UK
| | - Natasha Judd
- Policy and International Health, World Health Organization Collaborating Centre on Investment for Health and Well-being, Public Health Wales, Wrexham, UK.,Public Health Collaborating Unit, School of Medical and Health Sciences, Bangor University, Wrexham, UK
| | - Mark A Bellis
- Policy and International Health, World Health Organization Collaborating Centre on Investment for Health and Well-being, Public Health Wales, Wrexham, UK. .,Public Health Collaborating Unit, School of Medical and Health Sciences, Bangor University, Wrexham, UK.
| | - Karen Hughes
- Policy and International Health, World Health Organization Collaborating Centre on Investment for Health and Well-being, Public Health Wales, Wrexham, UK.,Public Health Collaborating Unit, School of Medical and Health Sciences, Bangor University, Wrexham, UK
| | - Andrew Jones
- Health Protection and Screening Services, Public Health Wales, Cardiff, UK
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40
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Carlson CJ, Farrell MJ, Grange Z, Han BA, Mollentze N, Phelan AL, Rasmussen AL, Albery GF, Bett B, Brett-Major DM, Cohen LE, Dallas T, Eskew EA, Fagre AC, Forbes KM, Gibb R, Halabi S, Hammer CC, Katz R, Kindrachuk J, Muylaert RL, Nutter FB, Ogola J, Olival KJ, Rourke M, Ryan SJ, Ross N, Seifert SN, Sironen T, Standley CJ, Taylor K, Venter M, Webala PW. The future of zoonotic risk prediction. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2021; 376:20200358. [PMID: 34538140 PMCID: PMC8450624 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2020.0358] [Citation(s) in RCA: 39] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 07/15/2021] [Indexed: 01/26/2023] Open
Abstract
In the light of the urgency raised by the COVID-19 pandemic, global investment in wildlife virology is likely to increase, and new surveillance programmes will identify hundreds of novel viruses that might someday pose a threat to humans. To support the extensive task of laboratory characterization, scientists may increasingly rely on data-driven rubrics or machine learning models that learn from known zoonoses to identify which animal pathogens could someday pose a threat to global health. We synthesize the findings of an interdisciplinary workshop on zoonotic risk technologies to answer the following questions. What are the prerequisites, in terms of open data, equity and interdisciplinary collaboration, to the development and application of those tools? What effect could the technology have on global health? Who would control that technology, who would have access to it and who would benefit from it? Would it improve pandemic prevention? Could it create new challenges? This article is part of the theme issue 'Infectious disease macroecology: parasite diversity and dynamics across the globe'.
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Affiliation(s)
- Colin J. Carlson
- Center for Global Health Science and Security, Georgetown University Medical Center, Washington, DC 20007, USA
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Georgetown University Medical Center, Washington, DC 20007, USA
| | - Maxwell J. Farrell
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Zoe Grange
- Public Health Scotland, Glasgow G2 6QE, UK
| | - Barbara A. Han
- Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, Millbrook, NY 12545, USA
| | - Nardus Mollentze
- Medical Research Council, University of Glasgow Centre for Virus Research, Glasgow G61 1QH, UK
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8QQ, UK
| | - Alexandra L. Phelan
- Center for Global Health Science and Security, Georgetown University Medical Center, Washington, DC 20007, USA
- O'Neill Institute for National and Global Health Law, Georgetown University Law Center, Washington, DC 20001, USA
| | - Angela L. Rasmussen
- Center for Global Health Science and Security, Georgetown University Medical Center, Washington, DC 20007, USA
| | - Gregory F. Albery
- Department of Biology, Georgetown University, Washington, DC 20007, USA
| | - Bernard Bett
- Animal and Human Health Program, International Livestock Research Institute, PO Box 30709-00100, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - David M. Brett-Major
- Department of Epidemiology, College of Public Health, University of Nebraska Medical Center, Omaha, NE, USA
| | - Lily E. Cohen
- Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA
| | - Tad Dallas
- Department of Biological Sciences, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA 70806, USA
| | - Evan A. Eskew
- Department of Biology, Pacific Lutheran University, Tacoma, WA, USA
| | - Anna C. Fagre
- Department of Microbiology, Immunology, and Pathology, College of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA
| | - Kristian M. Forbes
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, AR 72701, USA
| | - Rory Gibb
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Sam Halabi
- O'Neill Institute for National and Global Health Law, Georgetown University Law Center, Washington, DC 20001, USA
| | - Charlotte C. Hammer
- Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Rebecca Katz
- Center for Global Health Science and Security, Georgetown University Medical Center, Washington, DC 20007, USA
| | - Jason Kindrachuk
- Department of Medical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada R3E 0J9
| | - Renata L. Muylaert
- Molecular Epidemiology and Public Health Laboratory, Hopkirk Research Institute, Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand
| | - Felicia B. Nutter
- Department of Infectious Disease and Global Health, Cummings School of Veterinary Medicine, Tufts University, North Grafton, MA 01536, USA
- Department of Public Health and Community Medicine, School of Medicine, Tufts University, Boston, MA 02111, USA
| | | | | | - Michelle Rourke
- Law Futures Centre, Griffith Law School, Griffith University, Nathan, Queensland 4111, Australia
| | - Sadie J. Ryan
- Department of Geography and Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
- School of Life Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
| | - Noam Ross
- EcoHealth Alliance, New York, NY 10018, USA
| | - Stephanie N. Seifert
- Paul G. Allen School for Global Health, Washington State University, Pullman, WA, USA
| | - Tarja Sironen
- Department of Virology, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
- Department of Veterinary Biosciences, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Claire J. Standley
- Center for Global Health Science and Security, Georgetown University Medical Center, Washington, DC 20007, USA
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Georgetown University Medical Center, Washington, DC 20007, USA
| | - Kishana Taylor
- Department of Chemical Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USA
| | - Marietjie Venter
- Zoonotic Arbo and Respiratory Virus Program, Centre for Viral Zoonoses, Department of Medical Virology, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa
| | - Paul W. Webala
- Department of Forestry and Wildlife Management, Maasai Mara University, Narok 20500, Kenya
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Polyclonal Aptamers for Specific Fluorescence Labeling and Quantification of the Health Relevant Human Gut Bacterium Parabacteroides distasonis. Microorganisms 2021; 9:microorganisms9112284. [PMID: 34835410 PMCID: PMC8618460 DOI: 10.3390/microorganisms9112284] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/28/2021] [Revised: 10/25/2021] [Accepted: 10/28/2021] [Indexed: 12/27/2022] Open
Abstract
Single-stranded DNA aptamers as affinity molecules for the rapid, reliable detection of intestinal bacteria are of particular interest to equip health systems with novel robust and cheap diagnostic tools for monitoring the success of supplementation strategies with selected probiotic gut bacteria in the fight against major widespread threats, such as obesity and neurodegenerative diseases. The human gut bacterium Parabacteroides distasonis (P. distasonis) is positively associated with diseases such as obesity, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and multiple sclerosis with reduced cell counts in these diseases and is thus a promising potential probiotic bacterium for future microbial supplementation. In this paper we report on the evolution of a specific polyclonal aptamer library by the fluorescence based FluCell-SELEX directed against whole cells of P. distasonis that specifically and efficiently binds and labels P. distasonis. The aptamer library showed high binding affinity and was suited to quantitatively discriminate P. distasonis from other prominent gut bacteria also in mixtures. We believe that this library against a promising probiotic bacterium as a prototype may open new routes towards the development of novel biosensors for the easy and efficient quantitative monitoring of microbial abundance in human microbiomes in general.
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The effects of a “black swan” event (COVID-19) on herding behavior in cryptocurrency markets. JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MARKETS, INSTITUTIONS AND MONEY 2021; 75:101321. [PMCID: PMC8612810 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2021.101321] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/03/2020] [Accepted: 02/27/2021] [Indexed: 05/20/2023]
Abstract
This paper analyses herding in cryptocurrency markets in the time of the COVID-19 pandemic. We employ a combination of quantitative methods to hourly prices of the four most traded cryptocurrency markets - USD, EUR, JPY and KRW - for the period from 1st January 2019 to 13th March 2020. While there are several strong theoretical reasons to observe the “black swan” effect on cryptocurrency herding, our results suggest that COVID-19 does not amplify herding in cryptocurrency markets. In all markets studied, herding remains contingent on up or down markets days, but does not get stronger during the COVID-19. These results are important for cryptocurrency investors and regulators to enhance their understanding of cryptocurrency markets and the financial effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Fontal A, Bouma MJ, San-José A, López L, Pascual M, Rodó X. Climatic signatures in the different COVID-19 pandemic waves across both hemispheres. NATURE COMPUTATIONAL SCIENCE 2021; 1:655-665. [PMID: 38217205 DOI: 10.1038/s43588-021-00136-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 35] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/14/2021] [Accepted: 08/31/2021] [Indexed: 01/15/2024]
Abstract
The roles of climate and true seasonal signatures in the epidemiology of emergent pathogens, and that of SARS-CoV-2 in particular, remain poorly understood. With a statistical method designed to detect transitory associations, we show, for COVID-19 cases, strong consistent negative effects of both temperature and absolute humidity at large spatial scales. At finer spatial resolutions, we substantiate these connections during the seasonal rise and fall of COVID-19. Strong disease responses are identified in the first two waves, suggesting clear ranges for temperature and absolute humidity that are similar to those formerly described for seasonal influenza. For COVID-19, in all studied regions and pandemic waves, a process-based model that incorporates a temperature-dependent transmission rate outperforms baseline formulations with no driver or a sinusoidal seasonality. Our results, so far, classify COVID-19 as a seasonal low-temperature infection and suggest an important contribution of the airborne pathway in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, with implications for the control measures we discuss.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alejandro Fontal
- Climate and Health (CLIMA) Program, Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain
| | - Menno J Bouma
- Climate and Health (CLIMA) Program, Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain
| | - Adrià San-José
- Climate and Health (CLIMA) Program, Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain
| | - Leonardo López
- Climate and Health (CLIMA) Program, Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain
| | - Mercedes Pascual
- Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA
| | - Xavier Rodó
- Climate and Health (CLIMA) Program, Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain.
- ICREA, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain.
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Villacé-Molinero T, Fernández-Muñoz JJ, Orea-Giner A, Fuentes-Moraleda L. Understanding the new post-COVID-19 risk scenario: Outlooks and challenges for a new era of tourism. TOURISM MANAGEMENT 2021; 86:104324. [PMID: 36540617 PMCID: PMC9756354 DOI: 10.1016/j.tourman.2021.104324] [Citation(s) in RCA: 37] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/16/2020] [Revised: 01/21/2021] [Accepted: 03/24/2021] [Indexed: 05/08/2023]
Abstract
This paper explores the new travel risk scenario by analysing travel risk perception during the pandemic and proposes measures to improve traveller confidence based on the issue-attention cycle. The study was conducted during two stages of the pandemic. During the initial stage, travellers' decision-making process was studied to learn why travellers chose to maintain or cancel travel plans and what variables influenced their travel risk perception. An online survey was conducted with data collected from 1075 travellers residing in 46 countries (52 nationalities). The second stage of the study started at the beginning of de-escalation in Europe. A qualitative study was conducted in which 28 international hospitality experts were interviewed. They were asked about specific measures to encourage tourism from a global perspective. The results help tourism authorities and companies better understand tourist behaviour and provide concrete measures for restarting tourism.
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Affiliation(s)
- Teresa Villacé-Molinero
- Faculty of Social Sciences and Law. Business Economics Department. Rey Juan Carlos University, C/ Camino Del Molino S/n, 28943, Fuenlabrada, Madrid, Spain
| | - Juan José Fernández-Muñoz
- Faculty of Health Sciences. Department of Psychology, Rey Juan Carlos University, Avd. Atenas S/n, 28922, Alcorcón, Madrid, Spain
| | - Alicia Orea-Giner
- Faculty of Social Sciences and Law. Business Economics Department. Rey Juan Carlos University, Paseo de Los Artilleros S/n, 28032, Vicálvaro, Madrid, Spain
| | - Laura Fuentes-Moraleda
- Faculty of Social Sciences and Law. Business Economics Department. Rey Juan Carlos University, C/ Camino Del Molino S/n, 28943, Fuenlabrada, Madrid, Spain
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45
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Castillo-Laborde C, de Wolff T, Gajardo P, Lecaros R, Olivar-Tost G, Ramírez C. H. Assessment of event-triggered policies of nonpharmaceutical interventions based on epidemiological indicators. J Math Biol 2021; 83:42. [PMID: 34564787 PMCID: PMC8475901 DOI: 10.1007/s00285-021-01669-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/27/2020] [Revised: 07/13/2021] [Accepted: 09/08/2021] [Indexed: 12/15/2022]
Abstract
Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPI) such as banning public events or instituting lockdowns have been widely applied around the world to control the current COVID-19 pandemic. Typically, this type of intervention is imposed when an epidemiological indicator in a given population exceeds a certain threshold. Then, the nonpharmaceutical intervention is lifted when the levels of the indicator used have decreased sufficiently. What is the best indicator to use? In this paper, we propose a mathematical framework to try to answer this question. More specifically, the proposed framework permits to assess and compare different event-triggered controls based on epidemiological indicators. Our methodology consists of considering some outcomes that are consequences of the nonpharmaceutical interventions that a decision maker aims to make as low as possible. The peak demand for intensive care units (ICU) and the total number of days in lockdown are examples of such outcomes. If an epidemiological indicator is used to trigger the interventions, there is naturally a trade-off between the outcomes that can be seen as a curve parameterized by the trigger threshold to be used. The computation of these curves for a group of indicators then allows the selection of the best indicator the curve of which dominates the curves of the other indicators. This methodology is illustrated with indicators in the context of COVID-19 using deterministic compartmental models in discrete-time, although the framework can be adapted for a larger class of models.
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Affiliation(s)
- Carla Castillo-Laborde
- Centro de Epidemiología y Políticas de Salud, Facultad de Medicina, Clínica Alemana, Universidad del Desarrollo, Santiago, Chile
| | - Taco de Wolff
- Centro de Modelamiento Matemático (CNRS UMI 2807), Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile
| | - Pedro Gajardo
- Departamento de Matemática, Universidad Técnica Federico Santa María, Valparaiso, Chile
| | - Rodrigo Lecaros
- Departamento de Matemática, Universidad Técnica Federico Santa María, Valparaiso, Chile
| | - Gerard Olivar-Tost
- Departamento de Ciencias Naturales y Tecnología, Universidad de Aysén, Coyhaique, Chile
| | - Héctor Ramírez C.
- Departamento de Ingeniería Matemática, Centro de Modelamiento Matemático (CNRS UMI 2807), Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile
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Nix J, Ivanov S, Pickett JT. What does the public want police to do during pandemics? A national experiment. CRIMINOLOGY & PUBLIC POLICY 2021; 20:545-571. [PMID: 33821153 PMCID: PMC8013863 DOI: 10.1111/1745-9133.12535] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/10/2020] [Revised: 09/17/2020] [Accepted: 11/08/2020] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
RESEARCH SUMMARY We administered a survey experiment to a national sample of 1068 U.S. adults in April 2020 to determine the factors that shape support for various policing tactics in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic. Respondents were sharply divided in their views about pandemic policing tactics and were least supportive of policies that might limit public access to officers or reduce crime deterrence. Information about the health risks to officers, but not to inmates, significantly increased support for "precautionary" policing, but not for "social distance" policing. The information effect was modest, but may be larger if the information came from official sources and/or was communicated on multiple occasions. Other factors that are associated with attitudes toward pandemic policing include perceptions of procedural justice, altruistic fear, racial resentment, and authoritarianism. POLICY IMPLICATIONS When considered together with other evidence, one clear takeaway from our study is that the public values police patrols and wants officers on call, even during pandemics. Another is that people who believe the police are procedurally just are more willing to trust officers in times of crisis and to empower them to enforce new laws, such as social distancing ordinances. Our results thus support continued procedural justice training for officers. A third takeaway is that agencies must proactively communicate with the public about the risks their officers face when responding to public health crises or natural disasters, in addition to how they propose to mitigate those risks. They must also be amenable to adjusting in response to community feedback.
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Affiliation(s)
- Justin Nix
- School of Criminology and Criminal JusticeUniversity of Nebraska OmahaOmahaNebraskaUSA
| | - Stefan Ivanov
- School of Criminal JusticeState University of New York at AlbanyAlbanyNew YorkUSA
| | - Justin T. Pickett
- School of Criminal JusticeState University of New York at AlbanyAlbanyNew YorkUSA
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The Psychological Consequences of COVID-19 Outbreak Among the German Population. PSYCHOLOGICAL STUDIES 2021; 66:308-325. [PMID: 34334819 PMCID: PMC8302977 DOI: 10.1007/s12646-021-00614-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/28/2020] [Accepted: 06/01/2021] [Indexed: 12/21/2022] Open
Abstract
The world is currently facing an unprecedented pandemic crisis. The highly contagious coronavirus, or COVID-19, first occurred in Wuhan (China) in December 2019. The outbreak of the virus quickly spread all over the world, reaching Europe in January 2020. The first case in Germany was reported to be diagnosed on January 27. This study focuses on assessing the mental health consequences of the German public during COVID-19 outbreak. Psychological discomfort, generalized anxiety disorder, sleep disturbances, depressive symptoms and threat perception are especially investigated with respect to demographics, security importance and negative affectivity. The psychological vulnerabilities that go along with the pandemic are evaluated in detail. The cross-sectional online survey conducted in Germany reveals a prevalence of depressive symptoms, psychological discomfort, threat perception, generalized anxiety disorder and sleep disturbances associated with the pandemic crisis. The results also indicate a relationship between mental health issues and negative affectivity as well as the perception of threat. This paper gives an outlook on long-term consequences and what could be the strategies to mitigate the negative mental health outcomes of the crisis.
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48
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McKinley IG, West JM, Hardie SML. Risk management for pandemics: a novel approach: "Hindsight is 20/20" English proverb. SUSTAINABILITY SCIENCE 2021; 16:1625-1635. [PMID: 34257733 PMCID: PMC8269406 DOI: 10.1007/s11625-021-00999-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/26/2020] [Accepted: 06/24/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
The impacts of the current COVID-19 pandemic illustrate the global-level sensitivity to such threats. As understanding of major hazards is generally based on past experience and there is a lack of good historical precedents, approaches and models currently employed to assess risks and guide responses generally lack transparency and are often associated with huge, unspecified uncertainties. Fundamental challenges arise from the strongly coupled nature of the impacts of a pandemic (i.e. not only on health, but also on the entire socio-economic infrastructure) and their long-term evolution with recovery likely to take many years or, potentially, decades. Here, we outline experience gained in risk assessment within the nuclear industry, which has experience facing similar challenges (assessing long-term impacts in a strongly coupled technical system subject to socio-economic constraints), and assess options for knowledge transfer that may help manage future pandemics and other high-impact threats.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ian G. McKinley
- McKinley Consulting, Badstrasse 20B, 5408 Ennetbaden, Switzerland
| | - Julia M. West
- McKinley Consulting, Badstrasse 20B, 5408 Ennetbaden, Switzerland
- West Consult, Nottingham, UK
| | - Susie M. L. Hardie
- McKinley Consulting, Badstrasse 20B, 5408 Ennetbaden, Switzerland
- Schwarz Hara Consult, 6774 Tschagguns, Vorarlberg Austria
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49
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Estimating worldwide costs of premature mortalities caused by COVID-19. JOURNAL OF HEALTH RESEARCH 2021. [DOI: 10.1108/jhr-09-2020-0406] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to provide an estimate of the costs of premature mortality caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.Design/methodology/approachUsing COVID-19 pandemic-derived mortality data for November 9, 2020 (globally 1,303,215 deaths) and applying a country-based value of statistical life (VSL), the worldwide cost of premature mortality was assessed. The cost was assessed based on income groups until November 9, 2020 and projected into the future until March 1, 2021 using three scenarios from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME).FindingsThe global cost of premature mortality is currently estimated at Int$5.9 trillion. For the high-income group, the current estimated cost is Int$ $4.4 trillion or $3,700 per person. Using IHME projections until March 1, 2021, global premature mortality costs will increase to Int$13.7 trillion and reach Int$22.1 trillion if policies are relaxed, while the cost with 95% universal masks is Int$10.9 trillion. The richest nations will bear the largest burden of these costs, reaching $15,500 per person by March 1, 2021 if policies are relaxed.Originality/valueThe cost of human lives lost due to the pandemic is unprecedented. Preparedness in the future is the best policy to avoid many premature deaths and severe recessions in order to combat pandemics.
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50
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Kong X, Liu F, Wang H, Yang R, Chen D, Wang X, Lu F, Rao H, Chen H. Prevention and control measures significantly curbed the SARS-CoV-2 and influenza epidemics in China. J Virus Erad 2021; 7:100040. [PMID: 33996143 PMCID: PMC8106191 DOI: 10.1016/j.jve.2021.100040] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/01/2020] [Revised: 04/30/2021] [Accepted: 05/04/2021] [Indexed: 11/28/2022] Open
Abstract
At the end of 2019, an outbreak of pneumonia took place caused by a new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2 virus), named coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). A series of strict prevention and control measures were then implemented to reduce the spread of the epidemic. Influenza, another respiratory tract virus, may also respond to these measures. To assess the impact of these measures, we used the total number of passengers movement in mainland China from 2018 to 2020 and daily number of railway passenger flow during the 2020 Spring Festival travel rush to reflect the population movement and to analyze newly and cumulatively confirmed COVID-19 and influenza cases. We found that implementing the series of measures against COVID-19 mitigated both COVID-19 and influenza epidemics in China. Prevention and control measures for COVID-19 might be used to control respiratory tract infections to reduce the national health economic burden caused by these pathogens.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiangsha Kong
- Peking University People's Hospital, National Clinical Research Center for Infectious Disease, Peking University Hepatology Institute, Beijing Key Laboratory of Hepatitis C and Immunotherapy for Liver Diseases, Beijing International Cooperation Base for Science and Technology on NAFLD Diagnosis, Beijing, China
| | - Feng Liu
- Peking University People's Hospital, National Clinical Research Center for Infectious Disease, Peking University Hepatology Institute, Beijing Key Laboratory of Hepatitis C and Immunotherapy for Liver Diseases, Beijing International Cooperation Base for Science and Technology on NAFLD Diagnosis, Beijing, China
| | - Haibo Wang
- Peking University Clinical Research Institute, Peking University Health Science Center, Beijing, China
| | - Ruifeng Yang
- Peking University People's Hospital, National Clinical Research Center for Infectious Disease, Peking University Hepatology Institute, Beijing Key Laboratory of Hepatitis C and Immunotherapy for Liver Diseases, Beijing International Cooperation Base for Science and Technology on NAFLD Diagnosis, Beijing, China
| | - Dongbo Chen
- Peking University People's Hospital, National Clinical Research Center for Infectious Disease, Peking University Hepatology Institute, Beijing Key Laboratory of Hepatitis C and Immunotherapy for Liver Diseases, Beijing International Cooperation Base for Science and Technology on NAFLD Diagnosis, Beijing, China
| | - Xiaoxiao Wang
- Peking University People's Hospital, National Clinical Research Center for Infectious Disease, Peking University Hepatology Institute, Beijing Key Laboratory of Hepatitis C and Immunotherapy for Liver Diseases, Beijing International Cooperation Base for Science and Technology on NAFLD Diagnosis, Beijing, China
| | - Fengmin Lu
- Peking University People's Hospital, National Clinical Research Center for Infectious Disease, Peking University Hepatology Institute, Beijing Key Laboratory of Hepatitis C and Immunotherapy for Liver Diseases, Beijing International Cooperation Base for Science and Technology on NAFLD Diagnosis, Beijing, China
- State Key Laboratory of Natural and Biomimetic Drugs, Department of Microbiology & Infectious Disease Center, School of Basic Medical Sciences, Peking University Health Science Center, Beijing, China
| | - Huiying Rao
- Peking University People's Hospital, National Clinical Research Center for Infectious Disease, Peking University Hepatology Institute, Beijing Key Laboratory of Hepatitis C and Immunotherapy for Liver Diseases, Beijing International Cooperation Base for Science and Technology on NAFLD Diagnosis, Beijing, China
| | - Hongsong Chen
- Peking University People's Hospital, National Clinical Research Center for Infectious Disease, Peking University Hepatology Institute, Beijing Key Laboratory of Hepatitis C and Immunotherapy for Liver Diseases, Beijing International Cooperation Base for Science and Technology on NAFLD Diagnosis, Beijing, China
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