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Tang WZ, Mo ST, Xie YX, Wei TF, Chen GL, Teng YJ, Jia K. Predicting Overall Survival in Patients with Male Breast Cancer: Nomogram Development and External Validation Study. JMIR Cancer 2025; 11:e54625. [PMID: 40036657 PMCID: PMC11896567 DOI: 10.2196/54625] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/16/2023] [Revised: 12/12/2024] [Accepted: 12/18/2024] [Indexed: 03/06/2025] Open
Abstract
Background Male breast cancer (MBC) is an uncommon disease. Few studies have discussed the prognosis of MBC due to its rarity. Objective This study aimed to develop a nomogram to predict the overall survival of patients with MBC and externally validate it using cases from China. Methods Based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, male patients who were diagnosed with breast cancer between January 2010, and December 2015, were enrolled. These patients were randomly assigned to either a training set (n=1610) or a validation set (n=713) in a 7:3 ratio. Additionally, 22 MBC cases diagnosed at the First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University between January 2013 and June 2021 were used for external validation, with the follow-up endpoint being June 10, 2023. Cox regression analysis was performed to identify significant risk variables and construct a nomogram to predict the overall survival of patients with MBC. Information collected from the test set was applied to validate the model. The concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, decision curve analysis (DCA), and a Kaplan-Meier survival curve were used to evaluate the accuracy and reliability of the model. Results A total of 2301 patients with MBC in the SEER database and 22 patients with MBC from the study hospital were included. The predictive model included 7 variables: age (hazard ratio [HR] 1.89, 95% CI 1.50-2.38), surgery (HR 0.38, 95% CI 0.29-0.51), marital status (HR 0.75, 95% CI 0.63-0.89), tumor stage (HR 1.17, 95% CI 1.05-1.29), clinical stage (HR 1.41, 95% CI 1.15-1.74), chemotherapy (HR 0.62, 95% CI 0.50-0.75), and HER2 status (HR 2.68, 95% CI 1.20-5.98). The C-index was 0.72, 0.747, and 0.981 in the training set, internal validation set, and external validation set, respectively. The nomogram showed accurate calibration, and the ROC curve confirmed the advantage of the model in clinical validity. The DCA analysis indicated that the model had good clinical applicability. Furthermore, the nomogram classification allowed for more accurate differentiation of risk subgroups, and patients with low-risk MBC demonstrated substantially improved survival outcomes compared with medium- and high-risk patients (P<.001). Conclusions A survival prognosis prediction nomogram with 7 variables for patients with MBC was constructed in this study. The model can predict the survival outcome of these patients and provide a scientific basis for clinical diagnosis and treatment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wen-Zhen Tang
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University, Nanning, China
| | - Shu-Tian Mo
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University, Nanning, China
| | - Yuan-Xi Xie
- Department of Central Sterile Supply, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University, Nanning, China
| | - Tian-Fu Wei
- Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University, No 6 Shuangyong Road, Nanning, 530021, China, +86 0771-12580-6
| | - Guo-Lian Chen
- Department of Medical Oncology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University, Nanning, China
| | - Yan-Juan Teng
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University, Nanning, China
| | - Kui Jia
- Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University, No 6 Shuangyong Road, Nanning, 530021, China, +86 0771-12580-6
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Evans MD, Helgeson ES, Rule AD, Vock DM, Matas AJ. Consequences of low estimated glomerular filtration rate either before or early after kidney donation. Am J Transplant 2024; 24:1816-1827. [PMID: 38878866 PMCID: PMC11439579 DOI: 10.1016/j.ajt.2024.04.023] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/02/2023] [Revised: 03/20/2024] [Accepted: 04/20/2024] [Indexed: 07/11/2024]
Abstract
In the general population, decreases in glomerular filtration rate (GFR) are associated with subsequent development of chronic kidney disease (CKD), cardiovascular disease (CVD), and death. It is unknown if low estimated GFR (eGFR) before or early after kidney donation was also associated with these risks. One thousand six hundred ninety-nine living donors who had both predonation and early (4-10 weeks) postdonation eGFR were included. We studied the relationships between eGFR, age at donation, and the time to sustained eGFR<45 (CKD stage 3b) and <30 mL/min/1.73m2 (CKD stage 4), hypertension, diabetes mellitus (DM), CVD, and death. Median follow-up was 12 (interquartile range, 6-21) years. Twenty-year event rates were 5.8% eGFR<45 mL/min/1.73m2; 1.2% eGFR<30 mL/min/1.73m2; 29.0% hypertension; 7.8% DM; 8.0% CVD; and 5.2% death. The median time to eGFR<45 mL/min/1.73m2 (N = 79) was 17 years, and eGFR<30 mL/min/1.73m2 (N = 22) was 25 years. Both low predonation and early postdonation eGFR were associated with eGFR<45 mL/min/1.73m2 (P < .0001) and eGFR<30 mL/min/1.73m2 (P < .006); however, the primary driver of risk for all ages was low postdonation (rather than predonation) eGFR. Predonation and postdonation eGFR were not associated with hypertension, DM, CVD, or death. Low predonation and early postdonation eGFR are risk factors for developing eGFR<45 mL/min/1.73m2 (CKD stage 3b) and <30 mL/min/1.73m2 (CKD stage 4), but not CVD, hypertension, DM, or death.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michael D Evans
- Clinical and Translational Science Institute, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA
| | - Erika S Helgeson
- Division of Biostatistics and Health Data Science, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA
| | - Andrew D Rule
- Division of Nephrology and Hypertension, Department of Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minnesota, USA
| | - David M Vock
- Division of Biostatistics and Health Data Science, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA
| | - Arthur J Matas
- Division of Transplantation, Department of Surgery, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA.
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Khalil MAM, Sadagah NM, Tan J, Syed FO, Chong VH, Al-Qurashi SH. Pros and cons of live kidney donation in prediabetics: A critical review and way forward. World J Transplant 2024; 14:89822. [PMID: 38576756 PMCID: PMC10989475 DOI: 10.5500/wjt.v14.i1.89822] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/13/2023] [Revised: 12/11/2023] [Accepted: 01/16/2024] [Indexed: 03/15/2024] Open
Abstract
There is shortage of organs, including kidneys, worldwide. Along with deceased kidney transplantation, there is a significant rise in live kidney donation. The prevalence of prediabetes (PD), including impaired fasting glucose and impaired glucose tolerance, is on the rise across the globe. Transplant teams frequently come across prediabetic kidney donors for evaluation. Prediabetics are at risk of diabetes, chronic kidney disease, cardiovascular events, stroke, neuropathy, retinopathy, dementia, depression and nonalcoholic liver disease along with increased risk of all-cause mortality. Unfortunately, most of the studies done in prediabetic kidney donors are retrospective in nature and have a short follow up period. There is lack of prospective long-term studies to know about the real risk of complications after donation. Furthermore, there are variations in recommendations from various guidelines across the globe for donations in prediabetics, leading to more confusion among clinicians. This increases the responsibility of transplant teams to take appropriate decisions in the best interest of both donors and recipients. This review focuses on pathophysiological changes of PD in kidneys, potential complications of PD, other risk factors for development of type 2 diabetes, a review of guidelines for kidney donation, the potential role of diabetes risk score and calculator in kidney donors and the way forward for the evaluation and selection of prediabetic kidney donors.
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Affiliation(s)
- Muhammad Abdul Mabood Khalil
- Center of Renal Diseases and Transplantation, King Fahad Armed Forces Hospital Jeddah, Jeddah 23311, Saudi Arabia
| | - Nihal Mohammed Sadagah
- Center of Renal Diseases and Transplantation, King Fahad Armed Forces Hospital Jeddah, Jeddah 23311, Saudi Arabia
| | - Jackson Tan
- Department of Nephrology, RIPAS Hospital Brunei Darussalam, Brunei Muara BA1710, Brunei Darussalam
| | - Furrukh Omair Syed
- Center of Renal Diseases and Transplantation, King Fahad Armed Forces Hospital Jeddah, Jeddah 23311, Saudi Arabia
| | - Vui Heng Chong
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, Raja Isteri Pengiran Anak Saleha Hospital, Bandar Seri Begawan BA1710, Brunei Darussalam
| | - Salem H Al-Qurashi
- Center of Renal Diseases and Transplantation, King Fahad Armed Forces Hospital Jeddah, Jeddah 23311, Saudi Arabia
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Helgeson ES, Vempati S, Palzer EF, Mjoen G, Haugen AJ, Matas AJ. Development and Validation of a Hypertension Risk Calculator for Living Kidney Donors. Transplantation 2023; 107:1373-1379. [PMID: 36727726 PMCID: PMC10205650 DOI: 10.1097/tp.0000000000004505] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/03/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Ideally, when deciding whether to donate, kidney donor candidates would understand their long-term risks. Using single-center data (N = 4055; median [quartiles] follow-up: 18 [9-28] y), we developed a calculator for postdonation hypertension and validated it using long-term data from an external single-center cohort (N = 1189, median [quartiles] follow-up: 9 [5-17] y). METHODS Risk factors considered were routinely obtained at evaluation from donor candidates. Two modeling approaches were evaluated: Cox proportional hazards and random survival forest models. Cross-validation prediction error and Harrell's concordance-index were used to compare accuracy for model development. Top-performing models were assessed in the validation cohort using the concordance-index and net reclassification improvement. RESULTS In the development cohort, 34% reported hypertension at a median (quartiles) of 16 (8-24) y postdonation; and in the validation cohort, 29% reported hypertension after 17 (10-22) y postdonation. The most accurate model was a Cox proportional hazards model with age, sex, race, estimated glomerular filtration rate, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, body mass index, glucose, smoking history, family history of hypertension, relationship with recipient, and hyperlipidemia (concordance-index, 0.72 in the development cohort and 0.82 in the validation cohort). CONCLUSIONS A postdonation hypertension calculator was developed and validated; it provides kidney donor candidates, their family, and care team a long-term projection of hypertension risk that can be incorporated into the informed consent process.
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Affiliation(s)
- Erika S. Helgeson
- Division of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN
| | - Shruti Vempati
- Division of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN
| | - Elise F. Palzer
- Division of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN
| | - Geir Mjoen
- Department of Transplant Medicine, Oslo University Hospital, Oslo Norway
| | - Anders J. Haugen
- Deptartment of Internal Medicine, Bærum Hospital, Sandvika Norway
| | - Arthur J. Matas
- Division of Transplantation, Department of Surgery, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN
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Knatterud ME, Simmons RL, Payne W, Stock P, Chavers B, Ascher N, Kaufman D, Kirk A, Keshavjee S, Humar A, Ganesh S, Hughes C, Kandaswamy R, Matas AJ. The John S. Najarian symposium: The past, present, and future of surgery and transplantation, May 20, 2022, Minneapolis, MN. Clin Transplant 2023; 37:e14877. [PMID: 36528870 DOI: 10.1111/ctr.14877] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/18/2022] [Accepted: 11/21/2022] [Indexed: 12/23/2022]
Abstract
Dr John S Najarian (1927-2020), chairman of the Department of Surgery at the University of Minnesota from 1967 to 1993, was a pioneer in surgery, clinical immunology and transplantation. A Covid-delayed Festschrift was held in his honor on May 20, 2022. The speakers reflected on his myriad contributions to surgery, transplantation, and resident/fellow training, as well as current areas of ongoing research to improve clinical outcomes. Of note, Dr Najarian was a founder of the journal Clinical Transplantation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mary E Knatterud
- Department of Surgery, University of Minnesota Medical School, Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA
| | - Richard L Simmons
- Department of Surgery, University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA
| | - William Payne
- Department of Surgery, University of Minnesota Medical School, Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA
| | - Peter Stock
- Department of Surgery, University of California - San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USA
| | - Blanche Chavers
- Department of Pediatrics, University of Minnesota Medical School, Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA
| | - Nancy Ascher
- Department of Surgery, University of California - San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USA
| | - Dixon Kaufman
- Department of Surgery, University of Wisconsin School of Medicine and Public Health, Madison, Wisconsin, USA
| | - Alan Kirk
- Department of Surgery, Duke University School of Medicine, Durham, North Carolina, USA
| | | | - Abhinav Humar
- Department of Surgery, University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA
| | - Swaytha Ganesh
- Department of Surgery, University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA
| | - Christopher Hughes
- Department of Surgery, University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA
| | - Raja Kandaswamy
- Department of Surgery, University of Minnesota Medical School, Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA
| | - Arthur J Matas
- Department of Surgery, University of Minnesota Medical School, Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA
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Matas AJ, Rule AD. Long-term Medical Outcomes of Living Kidney Donors. Mayo Clin Proc 2022; 97:2107-2122. [PMID: 36216599 PMCID: PMC9747133 DOI: 10.1016/j.mayocp.2022.06.013] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/18/2021] [Revised: 06/03/2022] [Accepted: 06/13/2022] [Indexed: 12/15/2022]
Abstract
Historically, to minimize risks, living kidney donors have been highly selected and healthy. Operative risks are well-defined, yet concern remains about long-term risks. In the general population, even a mild reduction in glomerular filtration rate (GFR) is associated with cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, and end-stage kidney disease (ESKD). However, reduction in GFR in the general population is due to kidney or systemic disease. Retrospective studies comparing donors with matched general population controls have found no increased donor risk. Prospective studies comparing donors with controls (maximum follow-up, 9 years) have reported that donor GFR is stable or increases slightly, whereas GFR decreases in controls. However, these same studies identified metabolic and vascular donor abnormalities. There are a few retrospective studies comparing donors with controls. Each has limitations in selection of the control group, statistical analyses, and/or length of follow-up. One such study reported increased donor mortality; 2 reported a small increase in absolute risk of ESKD. Risk factors for donor ESKD are similar to those in the general population. Postdonation pregnancies are also associated with increased risk of hypertension and preeclampsia. There is a critical need for long-term follow-up studies comparing donors with controls from the same era, geographic area, and socioeconomic status who are healthy, with normal renal function on the date matching the date of donation, and are matched on demographic characteristics with the donors. These data are needed to optimize donor candidate counseling and informed consent.
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Affiliation(s)
- Arthur J Matas
- Transplantation Division, Department of Surgery, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis.
| | - Andrew D Rule
- Division of Nephrology and Hypertension, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN
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Ali A. Living Kidney Donation: Glomerular Filtration Rate-Based Donor Selection Criteria. EXP CLIN TRANSPLANT 2022; 20:65-69. [PMID: 36018025 DOI: 10.6002/ect.donorsymp.2022.o5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/05/2022]
Abstract
Despite different guidelines and recommendations for evaluating the renal function of living kidney donors, there is still no consensus about the best approach. It is uncertain whether to have measured glomerular filtration rate, estimated it, or both. The absolute value, body surface area-dependent, and age-specified estimated glomerular filtration rates have not been consistent across different populations and practices. The increasing demand for donors has mandated clear selection criteria for glomerular filtration rate. Thus, the next big question is how low should the glomerular filtration be? Indeed, a low level would preclude the misclassification of donors and mitigate future donor risks of chronic kidney disease. The recent consensus on removing factors on race and ethnicity in the estimated glomerular filtration rate equations added a new perspective to the concept of donor assessment of glomerular filtration rate. Furthermore, the increasing use of point of care devices to assess creatinine and estimated glomerular filtration rate will be a paradigm shift in the practice of nephrology. These challenges and updates make glomerular filtration rate-based donor selection criteria an always timely topic in living kidney donation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ala Ali
- From the Nephrology and Renal Transplantation Centre, Baghdad, Iraq
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8
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Garg N, Poggio ED, Mandelbrot D. The Evaluation of Kidney Function in Living Kidney Donor Candidates. KIDNEY360 2021; 2:1523-1530. [PMID: 35373109 PMCID: PMC8786144 DOI: 10.34067/kid.0003052021] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/04/2021] [Accepted: 06/28/2021] [Indexed: 02/04/2023]
Abstract
Living kidney donors incur a small increased risk of ESKD, of which predonation GFR is an important determinant. As a result, kidney function assessment is central to the donor candidate evaluation and selection process. This article reviews the different methods of GFR assessment, including eGFR, creatinine clearance, and measured GFR, and the current guidelines on GFR thresholds for donor acceptance. eGFR obtained using the 2009 CKD Epidemiology Collaboration equation that, although the best of estimating estimations, tends to underestimate levels and has limited accuracy, especially near-normal GFR values. In the United States, the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network policy on living donation mandates either measured GFR or creatinine clearance as part of the evaluation. Measured GFR is considered the gold standard, although there is some variation in performance characteristics, depending on the marker and technique used. Major limitations of creatinine clearance are dependency on accuracy of timed collection, and overestimation as a result of distal tubular creatinine secretion. GFR declines with healthy aging, and most international guidelines recommend use of age-adapted selection criteria. The 2017 Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes Guideline for the Evaluation and Care of Living Kidney Donors diverges from other guidelines and recommends using absolute cutoff of <60 ml/min per 1.73m2 for exclusion and ≥90 ml/min per 1.73m2 for acceptance, and determination of candidacy with intermediate GFR on the basis of long-term ESKD risk. However, several concerns exist for this strategy, including inappropriate acceptance of younger candidates due to underestimation of risk, and exclusion of older candidates whose kidney function is in fact appropriate for age. The role of cystatin C and other newer biomarkers, and data on the effect of predonation GFR on not just ESKD risk, but also advanced CKD risk and cardiovascular outcomes are needed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Neetika Garg
- Division of Nephrology, University of Wisconsin School of Medicine and Public Health, Madison, Wisconsin
| | - Emilio D. Poggio
- Department of Nephrology and Hypertension, Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, Ohio
| | - Didier Mandelbrot
- Division of Nephrology, University of Wisconsin School of Medicine and Public Health, Madison, Wisconsin
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Mariat C, Mjøen G, Watschinger B, Sever MS, Crespo M, Peruzzi L, Oniscu GC, Abramowicz D, Hilbrands L, Maggiore U. Assessment of Pre-Donation Glomerular Filtration Rate: Going Back To Basics A Position Paper from the DESCARTES Working Group of the ERA-EDTA. Nephrol Dial Transplant 2021; 37:430-437. [PMID: 34519827 DOI: 10.1093/ndt/gfab259] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/25/2021] [Indexed: 12/24/2022] Open
Abstract
The 2017 version of the KDIGO (Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes) guidelines is the most recent international framework for the evaluation and care of living kidneys donors. Along with the call for an integrative approach evaluating the long-term end-stage kidney disease risk for the future potential donor, several recommendations are formulated regarding the predonation glomerular filtration rate (GFR) adequacy with no or little consideration for the donor candidate's age and for the importance of using reference methods of GFR measurements. Herein, we question the position of the KDIGO guidelines and discuss the rationale and modalities for a more basic, but not less demanding GFR evaluation susceptible to enable a more efficient selection of the potential kidney donor.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christophe Mariat
- Service de Néphrologie, Dialyse et Transplantation rénale, Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de Saint Etienne, Hôpital NORD, Université de LYON, Université Jean MONNET, Saint Etienne, France
| | | | - Bruno Watschinger
- Medical University of Vienna, Department of Medicine III, Division of Nephrology and Dialysis, Vienna, Austria
| | | | - Marta Crespo
- Hospital del Mar, Nephrology Department, Barcelona, Spain
| | | | | | | | - Luuk Hilbrands
- Radboud university medical center, Department of Nephrology, Nijmegen, The Netherlands
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Predicting Kidney Function One Year After Nephrectomy in Living Kidney Donor Candidates. Transplantation 2021; 105:2350-2351. [PMID: 33496560 DOI: 10.1097/tp.0000000000003644] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
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