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Yang L, Fan M, Wang Y. Dynamic Modeling of Prevention and Control of Brucellosis in China: A Systematic Review. Transbound Emerg Dis 2025; 2025:1393722. [PMID: 40302758 PMCID: PMC12017112 DOI: 10.1155/tbed/1393722] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/29/2024] [Accepted: 12/07/2024] [Indexed: 05/02/2025]
Abstract
Brucellosis is a zoonotic infectious disease caused by bacteria of the genus Brucella. In recent years, the prevalence of brucellosis in animals and humans has been increasing in China despite the considerable efforts taken to date. Dynamic model serves as an influential and promising approach for offering guidance and recommendations for the prevention and control of the disease. At this pivotal moment, it is time to provide a comprehensive and timely examination of the existing achievements derived from the mathematical dynamical modeling studies, highlight the key development trends, delve into identifying the limitations of the studies, and offer valuable perspectives and insights for potential future research directions. Through a review of 49 articles (22 articles utilizing data while 27 articles did not use data), this study focuses on analyzing the differences in model structure, research data and areas, characterization of prevention and control measures, and main results. Meanwhile, quantitative results such as the reproduction number and critical parameter values are extracted. The study points out that the limitations of existing models are manifested in the lack of heterogeneity in the research and the absence of the results on the scale of herd/flock. The primary reason is the lack of relevant data, indicating the necessity to advance interdisciplinary, multidisciplinary, and transdisciplinary collaboration across multiple departments. Therefore, it is encouraged that the future models should be established from the holistic approach of One Health.
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Affiliation(s)
- Liu Yang
- Epidemiological Investigation Department, China Animal Health and Epidemiology Center, Qingdao 266032, Shandong, China
- National Center for Applied Mathematics in Jilin, Center for Mathematical Biosciences, School of Mathematics and Statistics, Northeast Normal University, 5268 Renmin Street, Changchun 130024, Jilin, China
| | - Meng Fan
- National Center for Applied Mathematics in Jilin, Center for Mathematical Biosciences, School of Mathematics and Statistics, Northeast Normal University, 5268 Renmin Street, Changchun 130024, Jilin, China
| | - Youming Wang
- Epidemiological Investigation Department, China Animal Health and Epidemiology Center, Qingdao 266032, Shandong, China
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2
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Sun ZX, Wang Y, Li YJ, Yu SH, Wu W, Huang DS, Guan P. Socioeconomic, meteorological factors and spatiotemporal distribution of human brucellosis in China between 2004 and 2019-A study based on spatial panel model. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2023; 17:e0011765. [PMID: 37956207 PMCID: PMC10681303 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0011765] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/26/2023] [Revised: 11/27/2023] [Accepted: 11/02/2023] [Indexed: 11/15/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Human brucellosis continues to be a great threat to human health in China. The present study aimed to investigate the spatiotemporal distribution of human brucellosis in China from 2004 to 2019, to analyze the socioeconomic factors, meteorological factors and seasonal effect affecting human brucellosis incidence in different geographical regions with the help of spatial panel model, and to provide a scientific basis for local health authorities to improve the prevention of human brucellosis. METHODS The monthly reported number and incidence of human brucellosis in China from January 2004 to December 2019 were obtained from the Data Center for China Public Health Science. Monthly average air temperature and monthly average relative humidity of 31 provincial-level administrative units (22 provinces, 5 autonomous regions and 4 municipalities directly under the central government) in China from October 2003 to December 2019 were obtained from the National Meteorological Science Data Centre. The inventory of cattle, the inventory of sheep, beef yield, mutton yield, wool yield, milk yield and gross pastoral product of 31 provincial-level administrative units in China from 2004 to 2019 were obtained from the National Bureau of Statistics of China. The temporal and geographical distribution of human brucellosis was displayed with Microsoft Excel and ArcMap software. The spatial autocorrelation and hotspot analysis was used to describe the association among different areas. Spatial panel model was constructed to explore the combined effects on the incidence of human brucellosis in China. RESULTS A total of 569,016 cases of human brucellosis were reported in the 31 provincial-level administrative units in China from January 2004 to December 2019. Human brucellosis cases were concentrated between March and July, with a peak in May, showing a clear seasonal increase. The incidence of human brucellosis in China from 2004 to 2019 showed significant spatial correlations, and hotspot analysis indicated that the high incidence of human brucellosis was mainly in the northern China, particularly in Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, and Heilongjiang. The results from spatial panel model suggested that the inventory of cattle, the inventory of sheep, beef yield, mutton yield, wool yield, milk yield, gross pastoral product, average air temperature (the same month, 2-month lagged and 3-month lagged), average relative humidity (the same month) and season variability were significantly associated with human brucellosis incidence in China. CONCLUSIONS The epidemic area of human brucellosis in China has been expanding and the spatial clustering has been observed. Inner Mongolia and adjacent provinces or autonomous regions are the high-risk areas of human brucellosis. The inventory of cattle and sheep, beef yield, mutton yield, wool yield, milk yield, gross pastoral product, average air temperature, average relative humidity and season variability played a significant role in the progression of human brucellosis. The present study strengthens the understanding of the relationship between socioeconomic, meteorological factors and the spatial heterogeneity of human brucellosis in China, through which 'One Health'-based strategies and countermeasures can be provided for the government to tackle the brucellosis menace.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zi-Xin Sun
- Key Laboratory of Environmental Stress and Chronic Disease Control & Prevention (China Medical University), Ministry of Education, Shenyang, China
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, China Medical University, Shenyang, China
| | - Yan Wang
- Key Laboratory of Environmental Stress and Chronic Disease Control & Prevention (China Medical University), Ministry of Education, Shenyang, China
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, China Medical University, Shenyang, China
| | - Ying-Jie Li
- Key Laboratory of Environmental Stress and Chronic Disease Control & Prevention (China Medical University), Ministry of Education, Shenyang, China
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, China Medical University, Shenyang, China
| | - Shi-Hao Yu
- Key Laboratory of Environmental Stress and Chronic Disease Control & Prevention (China Medical University), Ministry of Education, Shenyang, China
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, China Medical University, Shenyang, China
| | - Wei Wu
- Key Laboratory of Environmental Stress and Chronic Disease Control & Prevention (China Medical University), Ministry of Education, Shenyang, China
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, China Medical University, Shenyang, China
| | - De-Sheng Huang
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, China Medical University, Shenyang, China
- Department of Intelligent Computing, School of Intelligent Medicine, China Medical University, Shenyang, China
| | - Peng Guan
- Key Laboratory of Environmental Stress and Chronic Disease Control & Prevention (China Medical University), Ministry of Education, Shenyang, China
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, China Medical University, Shenyang, China
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Yu X, Fang M, Li Y, Yu J, Cheng L, Ding S, Kou Z. Epidemiological characteristics and spatio-temporal analysis of brucellosis in Shandong province, 2015-2021. BMC Infect Dis 2023; 23:669. [PMID: 37814221 PMCID: PMC10561485 DOI: 10.1186/s12879-023-08503-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/19/2022] [Accepted: 07/31/2023] [Indexed: 10/11/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Brucellosis is one of the major public health problems in China, it not only causes huge economic losses to the society, but also threatens the human's physical and mental health. The reported cases of brucellosis in Shandong province were at a high level, therefore, it is necessary for us to understand the epidemic characteristics and distribution trend of Brucellosis in Shandong province. This study aims to describe the epidemiological characteristics and spatial clustering characteristics of brucellosis in Shandong Province, provide a reference for the scientific prevention and control. METHODS Human brucellosis data in Shandong province from 2015 to 2021 were obtained from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention, the data were analyzed by descriptive epidemiological methods, spatial autocorrelation analysis and spatial-temporal cluster analysis methods use ArcGIS and SaTScan software, the results were presented in ArcMap. RESULTS A total of 22,251 human cases of brucellosis were reported, the annual incidence ranged between 2.41/100,000 and 4.07/100,000 from 2015 to 2021 in Shandong province, incidence has been decreasing year by year, while there was a significant increase in 2021. The distribution of brucellosis was of a seasonal trend, mainly concentrating during March to August. The age of the cases was mainly concentrated in the 30-74 age ranges, the average annual incidence rate was significantly higher in males than in females. The spatial analysis showed that the epidemics were mainly concentrated in the north and southwest. For the spatial autocorrelation analysis, a high global autocorrelation was observed at the county level, and the high-high clusters mainly distributed in the north and southwest region. For the spatio-temporal scanning, the most likely cluster areas mainly distributed in the north area, and then gradually moved southward, and the radius of clustered narrowed. CONCLUSIONS Human brucellosis remains a common challenge, particularly in northern region in spring and summer. More disease prevention and control measures should be taken in high-risk populations, and such higher-risk susceptible areas to reduce the incidence of brucellosis and ensure the health of the people.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiaolin Yu
- Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Shandong provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan, Shandong, China
| | - Ming Fang
- Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Shandong provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan, Shandong, China
| | - Yan Li
- Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Shandong provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan, Shandong, China
| | - Jianmei Yu
- Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Shandong provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan, Shandong, China
- Department of public health and health management, Shandong First Medical University, Jinan, Shandong, China
| | - Lixiao Cheng
- Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Shandong provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan, Shandong, China
| | - Shujun Ding
- Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Shandong provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan, Shandong, China
| | - Zengqiang Kou
- Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Shandong provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan, Shandong, China.
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Vinueza RL, Durand B, Ortega F, Salas F, Ferreira Vicente A, Freddi L, Ponsart C, Zanella G. Farm Prevalence of Bovine Brucellosis, Farmer Awareness, and Local Practices in Small- and Medium-Scale Cattle Farms in a Tropical Region of Ecuador. Transbound Emerg Dis 2023; 2023:6242561. [PMID: 40303687 PMCID: PMC12016698 DOI: 10.1155/2023/6242561] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/25/2022] [Revised: 06/15/2023] [Accepted: 06/21/2023] [Indexed: 05/02/2025]
Abstract
A cross-sectional study was conducted on bovine brucellosis in a sample of 173 medium/small-scale cattle farmers in a tropical region of Ecuador. A total of 173 milk tank samples were collected and analyzed through an indirect ELISA. A survey was also applied to each farm to collect information on herd management, evaluate the level of knowledge about the disease and estimate the risk that bovine brucellosis on those farms could represent for public health. The apparent prevalence among farms was 11.5% (95% CI: 6.7%-16.2%). The medium farms had a prevalence significantly higher (23.8%, 95% CI: 10.9%-36.6%, p < 0.0001) than the small farms (7.6%, 95% CI: 4.5%-9%). Two multivariable analysis were conducted to identify risk factors associated with bovine brucellosis or reproductive disorders. Medium farms had 3.7 more odds to be infected than the small farms (OR: 3.7, 95% CI: 1.39-9.84, p = 0.008). Incineration/burial of abortion material was identified as a protective factor (OR: 0.4, 95% CI: 0.14-0.98, p = 0.04). Farm size and brucellosis were identified as risk factors for the occurrence of reproductive disorders. Only 25% of the farmers were aware of bovine brucellosis. Unpasteurized curdled milk was regularly consumed and marketed on 112 farms of which 14 were positive for bovine brucellosis. Highly at-risk practices, such as manipulation of aborted fetuses were also reported. These results indicate that there is a need to develop public health education programs targeted at medium/small-scale farmers in Ecuador.
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Affiliation(s)
- R. L. Vinueza
- University Paris-Est, Anses, Laboratory for Animal Health, Epidemiology Unit, Maisons-Alfort 94700, France
- Universidad San Francisco de Quito, Escuela de Medicina Veterinaria, Cumbayá, Quito 150157, Ecuador
| | - B. Durand
- University Paris-Est, Anses, Laboratory for Animal Health, Epidemiology Unit, Maisons-Alfort 94700, France
| | - F. Ortega
- Universidad San Francisco de Quito, Escuela de Salud Pública, Cumbayá, Quito 150157, Ecuador
| | - F. Salas
- Universidad San Francisco de Quito, Escuela de Medicina Veterinaria, Cumbayá, Quito 150157, Ecuador
- Universidad San Francisco de Quito, Instituto de Medicina Social & Desafíos globales, Cumbayá, Quito 150157, Ecuador
| | - A. Ferreira Vicente
- University Paris-Est, Anses, Laboratory for Animal Health, Bacterial Zoonoses Unit, National and OIE (WOAH) Animal Brucellosis Reference Laboratory, Maisons-Alfort 94700, France
| | - L. Freddi
- University Paris-Est, Anses, Laboratory for Animal Health, Bacterial Zoonoses Unit, National and OIE (WOAH) Animal Brucellosis Reference Laboratory, Maisons-Alfort 94700, France
| | - C. Ponsart
- University Paris-Est, Anses, Laboratory for Animal Health, Bacterial Zoonoses Unit, National and OIE (WOAH) Animal Brucellosis Reference Laboratory, Maisons-Alfort 94700, France
| | - G. Zanella
- University Paris-Est, Anses, Laboratory for Animal Health, Epidemiology Unit, Maisons-Alfort 94700, France
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Gong W, Sun P, Zhai C, Yuan J, Chen Y, Chen Q, Zhao Y. Accessibility of the three-year comprehensive prevention and control of brucellosis in Ningxia: a mathematical modeling study. BMC Infect Dis 2023; 23:292. [PMID: 37147629 PMCID: PMC10161990 DOI: 10.1186/s12879-023-08270-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/25/2022] [Accepted: 04/20/2023] [Indexed: 05/07/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Brucellosis is a chronic zoonotic disease, and Ningxia is one of the high prevalence regions in China. To mitigate the spread of brucellosis, the government of Ningxia has implemented a comprehensive prevention and control plan (2022-2024). It is meaningful to quantitatively evaluate the accessibility of this strategy. METHODS Based on the transmission characteristics of brucellosis in Ningxia, we propose a dynamical model of sheep-human-environment, which coupling with the stage structure of sheep and indirect environmental transmission. We first calculate the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] and use the model to fit the data of human brucellosis. Then, three widely applied control strategies of brucellosis in Ningxia, that is, slaughtering of sicked sheep, health education to high risk practitioners, and immunization of adult sheep, are evaluated. RESULTS The basic reproduction number is calculated as [Formula: see text], indicating that human brucellosis will persist. The model has a good alignment with the human brucellosis data. The quantitative accessibility evaluation results show that current brucellosis control strategy may not reach the goal on time. "Ningxia Brucellosis Prevention and Control Special Three-Year Action Implementation Plan (2022-2024)" will be achieved in 2024 when increasing slaughtering rate [Formula: see text] by 30[Formula: see text], increasing health education to reduce [Formula: see text] to 50[Formula: see text], and an increase of immunization rate of adult sheep [Formula: see text] by 40[Formula: see text]. CONCLUSION The results demonstrate that the comprehensive control measures are the most effective for brucellosis control, and it is necessary to further strengthen the multi-sectoral joint mechanism and adopt integrated measures to prevention and control brucellosis. These results can provide a reliable quantitative basis for further optimizing the prevention and control strategy of brucellosis in Ningxia.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wei Gong
- School of Science, Ningxia Medical University, 750001, Yinchuan, China
| | - Peng Sun
- Science and Technology Center, Ningxia Medical University, 750001, Yinchuan, China
| | - Changsheng Zhai
- School of Mathematics and Computer Science, Ningxia Normal University, 756000, Guyuan, China
| | - Jing Yuan
- School of Science, Ningxia Medical University, 750001, Yinchuan, China
| | - Yaogeng Chen
- School of Science, Ningxia Medical University, 750001, Yinchuan, China
| | - Qun Chen
- School of Science, Ningxia Medical University, 750001, Yinchuan, China
| | - Yu Zhao
- School of Public Health and Management, Ningxia Medical University, 750001, Yinchuan, China.
- Key Laboratory of Environmental Factors and Chronic Disease Control, 750001, Yinchuan, China.
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Ellergezen PH, Kizmaz MA, Simsek A, Demir N, Cagan E, Bal SH, Akalin EH, Oral HB, Budak F. Investigation of IL-35 and IL-39, New Members of the IL-12 Family, in Different Clinical Presentations of Brucellosis. Immunol Invest 2023; 52:286-297. [PMID: 36645409 DOI: 10.1080/08820139.2023.2165941] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/17/2023]
Abstract
Brucellosis is significantly influenced by the interactions between the causative Brucella bacteria and host immunity. Recently identified cytokines have been described for their immunomodulatory effects in numerous inflammatory, autoimmune and infectious diseases. Some of them are new members of cytokine superfamilies, including several members of the IL-12 superfamily (IL-35, IL-39). The major purpose of the present study was to investigate the role of these new immunomodulatory cytokines in Brucella infections. The levels of IL-35 and IL-39 in the serum of 40 acute and 40 chronic brucellosis patients and 40 healthy controls were measured by ELISA. The mRNA levels of IL-35 and IL-39 in PBMCs were detected by RT-qPCR. Both IL-35 and IL-39 serum concentrations were significantly higher in healthy control subjects than in brucellosis patients, and IL-35 and IL-39 serum levels of chronic brucellosis patients were higher than those of acute cases. It was also found that the expression of Ebi3/IL-12A (IL-35 genes) and Ebi3/IL-23A (IL-39 genes) was upregulated in chronic brucellosis patients compared to healthy controls. Moreover, the expression of the Ebi3/IL-12A and Ebi3/IL-23A genes was lower in patients with acute brucellosis than in patients with chronic brucellosis. Overall, this study showed that IL-35 and IL-39 are positively correlated in brucellosis and significantly decreased during the disease. Significantly lower levels of IL-35 and IL-39 in acute brucellosis than in chronic brucellosis and healthy controls suggest that these cytokines may play a key role in suppressing the immune response to brucellosis and its progression to chronicity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pınar Hız Ellergezen
- Department of Immunology, Faculty of Medicine, Bursa Uludağ University, Bursa, Turkey.,Institute of Health Sciences, Department of Immunology, Bursa Uludag University, Bursa, Turkey
| | - Muhammed Ali Kizmaz
- Department of Immunology, Faculty of Medicine, Bursa Uludağ University, Bursa, Turkey.,Institute of Health Sciences, Department of Immunology, Bursa Uludag University, Bursa, Turkey
| | - Abdurrahman Simsek
- Department of Immunology, Faculty of Medicine, Bursa Uludağ University, Bursa, Turkey.,Institute of Health Sciences, Department of Immunology, Bursa Uludag University, Bursa, Turkey
| | - Nesrin Demir
- Department of Microbiology, Faculty of Dentistry, Antalya Bilim University, Antalya, Turkey
| | - Eren Cagan
- Department of Pediatric Infectious Diseases, University of Health Sciences, Bursa Yuksek Ihtisas Training and Research Hospital, Bursa, Turkey
| | - S Haldun Bal
- Department of Immunology, Faculty of Medicine, Bursa Uludağ University, Bursa, Turkey
| | - E Halis Akalin
- Department of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, Faculty of Medicine, Bursa Uludağ University, Bursa, Turkey
| | - H Barbaros Oral
- Department of Immunology, Faculty of Medicine, Bursa Uludağ University, Bursa, Turkey
| | - Ferah Budak
- Department of Immunology, Faculty of Medicine, Bursa Uludağ University, Bursa, Turkey
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Charypkhan D, Rüegg SR. One Health evaluation of brucellosis control in Kazakhstan. PLoS One 2022; 17:e0277118. [PMID: 36322602 PMCID: PMC9629608 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0277118] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/25/2021] [Accepted: 10/20/2022] [Indexed: 01/24/2023] Open
Abstract
Brucellosis is one of the main livestock disease risks in Kazakhstan. It's been endemic there since 1930, accounting for over 1300 human cases per annum. The economic loss was 45 million USD in 2015 alone. Since 1952, Kazakhstan has implemented various control strategies with little success. One Health approaches have been suggested to tackle brucellosis, however, there is a lack of evidence for best practices to operationalise One Health in the literature, and methods for implementation are not established. The intention of this study was to introduce the One Health approach during the evaluation phase of the policy cycle. A two-day workshop was organized by the authors to familiarize participants with the evaluation methodology. Twenty-one specialists representing veterinary and public health sector, together with researchers, took part in this study. For two weeks following the workshop, first author conducted individual interviews with workshop participants to obtain individual scorings to assess knowledge integration capacity (One Health-ness). The evaluation results show that there is a lack of knowledge about the perceived damage caused by brucellosis to animal owners and other stakeholders. There is insufficient data available about farmers' practices, interests and motivations, and also data is missing for important transmission processes such as the amount of unsafe dairy consumption. The absence of such data illustrates the extent of the uncertainty to which decision-makers are exposed despite well-elaborated transmission models and supports the importance of co-producing solutions with participatory methods. The results suggest the need for broader involvement of stakeholders. Outputs of this study could help navigate the initial stages of One Health operationalization.
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Affiliation(s)
- Duriya Charypkhan
- Vetsuisse Faculty, Section of Epidemiology, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
- Laboratory of Brucellosis, Kazakh Scientific Research Veterinary Institute, Almaty, Kazakhstan
- * E-mail:
| | - Simon R. Rüegg
- Vetsuisse Faculty, Section of Epidemiology, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
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8
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A Model for Brucellosis Disease Incorporating Age of Infection and Waning Immunity. MATHEMATICS 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/math10040670] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/25/2023]
Abstract
This paper proposes a model for brucellosis transmission. The model takes into account the age of infection and waning immunity, that is, the progressive loss of immunity after recovery. Three routes of transmissions are considered: vertical transmission, and both direct and indirect routes of horizontal transmission. According to the well-posedness results, we provide explicit formulas for the equilibria. Next, we derive the basic reproduction number R0 and prove some stability results depending on the basic reproductive number. Finally, we perform numerical simulations using model parameters estimated from biological data to confirm our theoretical results. The results of these simulations suggest that for certain values of parameters, there will be periodic outbreaks of epidemics, and the disease will not be eradicated from the population. Our results also highlight the fact that the birth rate of cattle significantly influences the dynamics of the disease. The proposed model can be of a good use in studying the effects of vaccination on the cattle population.
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9
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Liang G, Fang H. Transmission dynamics of a Brucellosis model with incubation period. INT J BIOMATH 2022. [DOI: 10.1142/s1793524522500243] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
Abstract
Brucellosis is a major worldwide problem in public health. In this paper, we established and analyzed the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Vaccinated for small ruminant–Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Vaccinated for cattle–Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered for human (SEIV–SEIV–SIR) model of Brucellosis with an incubation period which considered that human was infected through direct contact with infected humans, infected small ruminant, infected cattle and indirect contact with Brucella in the environment. The basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] of the model is computed by the spectral radius of the next-generation matrix. We proved that the disease-free equilibrium exists and we analyzed that the disease-free equilibrium point and endemic equilibrium point are global stability by constructing the [Formula: see text] function and applying the [Formula: see text] invariant principle. Numerical solutions and analytical reveal that the prevention and control measures for Brucella should be to detect infected livestock in time, reduce contact with infected livestock and increase the cure rate of infected humans.
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Affiliation(s)
- Guizhen Liang
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, Xinxiang University, Xinxiang 453000, P. R. China
| | - Huiwen Fang
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, Xinxiang University, Xinxiang 453000, P. R. China
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450002, P. R. China
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10
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Li J, Jin Z, Wang Y, Sun X, Xu Q, Kang J, Huang B, Zhu H. Data-driven dynamical modelling of the transmission of African swine fever in a few places in China. Transbound Emerg Dis 2021; 69:e646-e658. [PMID: 34655504 DOI: 10.1111/tbed.14345] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/17/2020] [Accepted: 09/29/2021] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
Abstract
Since the outbreak of African swine fever (ASF) in Shengyang, it has continued spreading in China. In the early stage of the epidemic, multi-point and concentrated outbreaks were mainly in the swill feeding areas. In this paper, we developed compartmental models to investigate the transmission of ASF in several raising units including Guquan, Jinba and Liancheng. Using the data collected from these three infected premises, we calibrated the models to estimate that the average incubation period was between 8 and 11 days, the onset period was about 2-3 days and the basic reproductive number was about 4.83-11.90. We also estimated the infection on the day before culling to be 45.24% (Guquan), 89.20% (Jinba) and 16.35% (Liancheng), respectively. The infection rate of Guquan could reach about 74.8% if culling were postponed by 2 days. We found that the infection was significantly higher than the morbidities (22.11% (Guquan), 49.35% (Jinba) and 12.94% (Liancheng)) calculated by actual statistical data. Besides, we simulated and compared the control effect of stopping transport, disinfecting, stopping swill and culling. Our findings suggest that any single measure was not enough to prevent the spread of ASF on a regional level but the combined measures is the key. Under the current situation, fully culling was recognized as most effective in controlling the epidemic, despite the culling of uninfected pigs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Juan Li
- Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi, China.,China Animal Health and Epidemiology Center, Qingdao, China.,Laboratory of Mathematical Parallel Systems (LAMPS) and Canadian Centre for Diseases Modeling (CCDM), Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, Canada
| | - Zhen Jin
- Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi, China.,Shanxi Key Laboratory of Mathematical Techniques and Big Data Analysis on Disease Control and Prevention, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi, China
| | - Youming Wang
- China Animal Health and Epidemiology Center, Qingdao, China
| | - Xiangdong Sun
- China Animal Health and Epidemiology Center, Qingdao, China
| | - Quangang Xu
- China Animal Health and Epidemiology Center, Qingdao, China
| | - Jingli Kang
- China Animal Health and Epidemiology Center, Qingdao, China
| | - Baoxu Huang
- China Animal Health and Epidemiology Center, Qingdao, China
| | - Huaiping Zhu
- Laboratory of Mathematical Parallel Systems (LAMPS) and Canadian Centre for Diseases Modeling (CCDM), Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, Canada
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11
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Rothschild B, Haeusler M. Possible vertebral brucellosis infection in a Neanderthal. Sci Rep 2021; 11:19846. [PMID: 34615929 PMCID: PMC8494896 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-99289-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/27/2021] [Accepted: 09/23/2021] [Indexed: 12/02/2022] Open
Abstract
The La Chapelle-aux-Saints 1 skeleton of an old (>60-year-old) male Neanderthal is renowned for the advanced osteoarthritis of its spinal column and hip joint, and their implications for posture and lifestyle in these Mid- to Late Pleistocene humans. Reassessment of the pathologic lesions reveals erosions at multiple non-contiguous vertebrae and reactive bone formation extending far beyond the left hip joint, which suggests the additional diagnosis of brucellosis. This implies the earliest secure evidence of this zoonotic disease in hominin evolution. Brucellosis might have been transmitted via butchering or eating raw meat and is well compatible with the range of prey animals documented for Neanderthals. The associated infertility could have represented an important aspect of health in these late archaic humans.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bruce Rothschild
- Department of Vertebrate Paleontology, Carnegie Museum, 4400 Forbes Ave, Pittsburgh, PA, 15213, USA
- Indiana University Health, Muncie, IN, 47303, USA
| | - Martin Haeusler
- Institute of Evolutionary Medicine, University of Zürich, Winterthurerstr. 190, 8057, Zurich, Switzerland.
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12
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Yuan R, Ma Y, Shen C, Zhao J, Luo X, Liu M. Global dynamics of COVID-19 epidemic model with recessive infection and isolation. MATHEMATICAL BIOSCIENCES AND ENGINEERING : MBE 2021; 18:1833-1844. [PMID: 33757213 DOI: 10.3934/mbe.2021095] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
In this paper, we present an SEIIaHR epidemic model to study the influence of recessive infection and isolation in the spread of COVID-19. We first prove that the infection-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable with condition R0<1 and the positive equilibrium is uniformly persistent when the condition R0>1. By using the COVID-19 data in India, we then give numerical simulations to illustrate our results and carry out some sensitivity analysis. We know that asymptomatic infections will affect the spread of the disease when the quarantine rate is within the range of [0.3519, 0.5411]. Furthermore, isolating people with symptoms is important to control and eliminate the disease.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rong Yuan
- School of Science, North University of China, Taiyuan 030051, China
| | - Yangjun Ma
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, Chongqing Jiaotong University, Chongqing 400074, China
| | - Congcong Shen
- School of Information, Beijing Wuzi University, Beijing 101149, China
| | - Jinqing Zhao
- State Key Laboratory of Explosion Science and Technology, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China
| | - Xiaofeng Luo
- School of Science, North University of China, Taiyuan 030051, China
| | - Maoxing Liu
- School of Science, North University of China, Taiyuan 030051, China
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13
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Milton AAP, Das S, Ghatak S. Neglected paths of transmission of milkborne brucellosis and tuberculosis in developing countries: novel control opportunities. Epidemiol Health 2020; 42:e2020073. [PMID: 33285058 PMCID: PMC8137372 DOI: 10.4178/epih.e2020073] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/08/2020] [Accepted: 12/02/2020] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Brucellosis and tuberculosis are lingering zoonotic infections that are endemic in many developing parts of the world, with considerable economic and health costs. Although guidelines for the control of these diseases exist, we highlight neglected transmission routes of these diseases. We show that informal, door-to-door marketing of unpasteurized milk provides an important route for disease transmission through kitchen cross-contamination. Furthermore, the practice of discarding the first strippings of milk at farms needs adjustment to avoid floor and environmental contamination. Herein, we propose handling guidelines and a design for a milk stripping collection vessel. We believe that taking action to block these hitherto unrecognized transmission routes will complement existing efforts and guidelines.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Samir Das
- Division of Animal Health, ICAR Research Complex for NEH Region, Umiam, India
| | - Sandeep Ghatak
- Division of Animal Health, ICAR Research Complex for NEH Region, Umiam, India
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14
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Alim M, Ye GH, Guan P, Huang DS, Zhou BS, Wu W. Comparison of ARIMA model and XGBoost model for prediction of human brucellosis in mainland China: a time-series study. BMJ Open 2020; 10:e039676. [PMID: 33293308 PMCID: PMC7722837 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2020-039676] [Citation(s) in RCA: 40] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/17/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Human brucellosis is a public health problem endangering health and property in China. Predicting the trend and the seasonality of human brucellosis is of great significance for its prevention. In this study, a comparison between the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model was conducted to determine which was more suitable for predicting the occurrence of brucellosis in mainland China. DESIGN Time-series study. SETTING Mainland China. METHODS Data on human brucellosis in mainland China were provided by the National Health and Family Planning Commission of China. The data were divided into a training set and a test set. The training set was composed of the monthly incidence of human brucellosis in mainland China from January 2008 to June 2018, and the test set was composed of the monthly incidence from July 2018 to June 2019. The mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were used to evaluate the effects of model fitting and prediction. RESULTS The number of human brucellosis patients in mainland China increased from 30 002 in 2008 to 40 328 in 2018. There was an increasing trend and obvious seasonal distribution in the original time series. For the training set, the MAE, RSME and MAPE of the ARIMA(0,1,1)×(0,1,1)12 model were 338.867, 450.223 and 10.323, respectively, and the MAE, RSME and MAPE of the XGBoost model were 189.332, 262.458 and 4.475, respectively. For the test set, the MAE, RSME and MAPE of the ARIMA(0,1,1)×(0,1,1)12 model were 529.406, 586.059 and 17.676, respectively, and the MAE, RSME and MAPE of the XGBoost model were 249.307, 280.645 and 7.643, respectively. CONCLUSIONS The performance of the XGBoost model was better than that of the ARIMA model. The XGBoost model is more suitable for prediction cases of human brucellosis in mainland China.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mirxat Alim
- Department of Epidemiology, China Medical University, Shenyang, China
| | - Guo-Hua Ye
- Department of Epidemiology, China Medical University, Shenyang, China
| | - Peng Guan
- Department of Epidemiology, China Medical University, Shenyang, China
| | - De-Sheng Huang
- Department of Mathematics, China Medical University, Shenyang, China
| | - Bao-Sen Zhou
- Department of Epidemiology, China Medical University, Shenyang, China
| | - Wei Wu
- Department of Epidemiology, China Medical University, Shenyang, China
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15
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Sun GQ, Li MT, Zhang J, Zhang W, Pei X, Jin Z. Transmission dynamics of brucellosis: Mathematical modelling and applications in China. Comput Struct Biotechnol J 2020; 18:3843-3860. [PMID: 33335683 PMCID: PMC7720096 DOI: 10.1016/j.csbj.2020.11.014] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/30/2020] [Revised: 11/08/2020] [Accepted: 11/09/2020] [Indexed: 01/06/2023] Open
Abstract
Brucellosis, the most common zoonotic disease worldwide, represents a great threat to animal husbandry with the potential to cause enormous economic losses. Meanwhile, brucellosis is one of the major public-health problems in China, and the number of human brucellosis cases has increased dramatically in recent years. In order to show the main features of brucellosis transmission in China, we give a systematic review on the transmission dynamics of brucellosis including a series of mathematical models and their applications in China. For different situations, dynamical models of brucellosis transmission in single population and multiple populations are devised based on ordinary differential equations. Furthermore, we revealed the spatial-temporal characteristics and effective control measures of brucellosis transmission. The results may provide new perspectives for the prevention and control of other types of zoonoses.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gui-Quan Sun
- Department of Mathematics, North University of China, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030051, China
- Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030006, China
| | - Ming-Tao Li
- School of Mathematics, Taiyuan University of Technology, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030024, China
| | - Juan Zhang
- Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030006, China
| | - Wei Zhang
- Department of Mathematics, North University of China, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030051, China
| | - Xin Pei
- School of Mathematics, Taiyuan University of Technology, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030024, China
| | - Zhen Jin
- Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030006, China
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16
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Hou Q, Zhang L, Liu M. Mathematical analysis of a time-delayed model on brucellosis transmission with disease testing information. INT J BIOMATH 2020. [DOI: 10.1142/s1793524520500394] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
Abstract
Testing–culling is one of the important prevention and control measures considered in the study of animal infectious diseases. However, the process of finding infected animals (animal testing) is still not well studied through the kinetic model. In this paper, based on the characteristics of animal testing, a time-delayed model on brucellosis transmission is established. Under the general hypothesis of biological significance, the existence and stability of equilibria are first investigated. The results find that the global stability of equilibria depends on the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] without the information delay: if [Formula: see text], the disease dies out; if [Formula: see text], the endemic equilibrium exists and the disease persists. Next, the impact of information delay on the dynamics of the model is analyzed and Hopf bifurcation is found in the established model when the information delay is greater than a critical value. Finally, the theoretical results are then further explained through numerical analysis and the significance of these results for the development of risk management measures is elaborated.
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Affiliation(s)
- Qiang Hou
- Department of Mathematics, North University of China, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030051, P. R. China
| | - Lei Zhang
- Department of Mathematics, North University of China, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030051, P. R. China
| | - Maoxing Liu
- Department of Mathematics, North University of China, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030051, P. R. China
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17
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Peng C, Li YJ, Huang DS, Guan P. Spatial-temporal distribution of human brucellosis in mainland China from 2004 to 2017 and an analysis of social and environmental factors. Environ Health Prev Med 2020; 25:1. [PMID: 31898483 PMCID: PMC6941396 DOI: 10.1186/s12199-019-0839-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 44] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/22/2019] [Accepted: 12/22/2019] [Indexed: 12/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Background This study aimed to describe the changing distribution of human brucellosis between 2004 and 2017 in mainland China and seek scientific evidence of the relationship between socio-economic, environmental, and ecological factors and human brucellosis incidence. Methods The annual numbers of brucellosis cases and incidence rates from 31 provinces in mainland China between 2004 and 2017 were obtained from the Data-Center for China Public Health Science. The number of monthly brucellosis cases in 2018 was obtained from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. The electronic map of the People’s Republic of China was downloaded from the National Earth System Science Data Sharing Platform. Human population density, gross domestic product (GDP), and an inventory of cattle and sheep at the end of each year from 2004 to 2017 were obtained from the National Bureau of Statistics of China. Annual rainfall data from 31 provinces in the People’s Republic of China from 2004 to 2017 were collected from the China Meteorological Data Service Center. The risk distribution and changing trends of human brucellosis were mapped with ArcGIS. A cluster analysis was employed to identify geographical areas and periods with statistically significant incidence rates. Multivariate linear regression was used to determine possible factors that were significantly correlated with the presence of human brucellosis cases. Results Human brucellosis cases have spread throughout the whole country. Human brucellosis cases occurred mostly from March to August and were concentrated from April to July. The inventory of sheep, GDP, and climate were significantly correlated with the presence of brucellosis cases in mainland China. Conclusions The geographical expansion of human brucellosis in mainland China was observed, so did the high-incidence clusters between 2004 and 2017. Most of the cases were reported during the early spring to early summer (February–August). Results from the multivariate linear regression suggested that the inventory of sheep, GDP, and climate were significantly associated with the incidence of human brucellosis in mainland China.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cheng Peng
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, China Medical University, Shenyang, 110122, China
| | - Yan-Jun Li
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, China Medical University, Shenyang, 110122, China
| | - De-Sheng Huang
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, China Medical University, Shenyang, 110122, China.,Department of Mathematics, School of Fundamental Sciences, China Medical University, Shenyang, 110122, China
| | - Peng Guan
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, China Medical University, Shenyang, 110122, China.
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18
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Esmaeilnejad-Ganji SM, Esmaeilnejad-Ganji SMR. Osteoarticular manifestations of human brucellosis: A review. World J Orthop 2019; 10:54-62. [PMID: 30788222 PMCID: PMC6379739 DOI: 10.5312/wjo.v10.i2.54] [Citation(s) in RCA: 76] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/13/2018] [Revised: 11/29/2018] [Accepted: 12/17/2018] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Abstract
Brucellosis is a common global zoonotic disease, which is responsible for a range of clinical manifestations. Fever, sweating and musculoskeletal pains are observed in most patients. The most frequent complication of brucellosis is osteoarticular involvement, with 10% to 85% of patients affected. The sacroiliac (up to 80%) and spinal joints (up to 54%) are the most common affected sites. Spondylitis and spondylodiscitis are the most frequent complications of brucellar spinal involvement. Peripheral arthritis, osteomyelitis, discitis, bursitis and tenosynovitis are other osteoarticular manifestations, but with a lower prevalence. Spinal brucellosis has two forms: focal and diffuse. Epidural abscess is a rare complication of spinal brucellosis but can lead to permanent neurological deficits or even death if not treated promptly. Spondylodiscitis is the most severe form of osteoarticular involvement by brucellosis, and can have single- or multi-focal involvement. Early and appropriate diagnosis and treatment of the disease is important in order to have a successful management of the patients with osteoarticular brucellosis. Brucellosis should be considered as a differential diagnosis for sciatic and back pain, especially in endemic regions. Patients with septic arthritis living in endemic areas also need to be evaluated in terms of brucellosis. Physical examination, laboratory tests and imaging techniques are needed to diagnose the disease. Radiography, computed tomography, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and bone scintigraphy are imaging techniques for the diagnosis of osteoarticular brucellosis. MRI is helpful to differentiate between pyogenic spondylitis and brucellar spondylitis. Drug medications (antibiotics) and surgery are the only two options for the treatment and cure of osteoarticular brucellosis.
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Affiliation(s)
- Seyed Mokhtar Esmaeilnejad-Ganji
- Clinical Research Development Center, Shahid Beheshti Hospital, Babol University of Medical Sciences, Babol 47176-47745, Iran
- Department of Orthopedics, Babol University of Medical Sciences, Babol 47176-47745, Iran
- Infectious Diseases and Tropical Medicine Research Center, Health Research Institute, Babol University of Medical Sciences, Babol 47176-47745, Iran
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19
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Zhang J, Jin Z, Yuan Y. Assessing the spread of foot and mouth disease in mainland China by dynamical switching model. J Theor Biol 2019; 460:209-219. [DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2018.09.027] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/08/2018] [Revised: 08/29/2018] [Accepted: 09/24/2018] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
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20
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Enzootic situation and molecular epidemiology of Brucella in livestock from 2011 to 2015 in Qingyang, China. Emerg Microbes Infect 2018; 7:58. [PMID: 29615607 PMCID: PMC5882930 DOI: 10.1038/s41426-018-0060-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/26/2017] [Revised: 02/21/2018] [Accepted: 02/25/2018] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Abstract
A large-scale survey was conducted in domestic animal populations from 2011 to 2015 in Qingyang, China. A total of 448,398 animals from different districts of Qingyang were tested for the presence of Brucella-specific antibodies using the Rose Bengal Plate Test (RBPT) and the Standard Agglutination Test (SAT). From 2011 to 2015, the yearly average positive rates were between 0.04 and 4.75% in the eight counties tested. In addition, the prevalence rates were between 0 and 9.96% in these eight counties. Sheep was the dominant host of Brucella in Qingyang, and the prevalence rate in sheep (2.74%) was higher than those in the other animals tested. Identification of 10 Brucella isolates from sheep confirmed that the epidemic strains were B. melitensis biovar 3 (n = 9) and B. melitensis biovar 1 (n = 1). MLVA-11 (multiple-locus variable-number tandem repeat analysis) analysis of the 10 isolates showed three genotypes: genotype 116 (n = 8), genotype 115 (n = 1) and genotype 136 (n = 1). Furthermore, analysis of the whole-genome sequences of the representative B. melitensis strain QY1 indicated that this isolate was closely related to isolates from China and India. The results of serum epidemiology confirmed that the region of northern Qingyang was a critical Brucella epidemic area and that the disease showed a rising trend, especially from 2013 to 2015. An analysis of the isolate genotypes suggested that sheep brucellosis mainly resulted from conventional B. melitensis (East Mediterranean group), although the external strain (American group) also occurred in Qingyang.
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21
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Cao X, Li Z, Liu Z, Fu B, Liu Y, Shang Y, Zhou J, Jing Z. Molecular epidemiological characterization of Brucella isolates from sheep and yaks in northwest China. Transbound Emerg Dis 2017; 65:e425-e433. [PMID: 29193808 DOI: 10.1111/tbed.12777] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/14/2017] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
Animal brucellosis is a re-emerging disease in China with high prevalence in the northwest region. A total of 66 isolates of Brucella were recovered from sheep and yaks in the Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Qinghai and Gansu provinces of northwest China in 2015 and 2016. Using classical biotyping and the Brucella AMOS PCR assay, all isolates were identified as Brucella melitensis biovar 3 (n = 58), B. melitensis biovar 1 (n = 1), Brucella abortus (n = 5), or Brucella suis biovar 3 (n = 2), and B. melitensis biovar 3 was found to be mainly responsible for sheep brucellosis in northwest China. Multilocus variable-number tandem-repeat analysis (MLVA) was used to identify the epidemiological relationships among the isolates and to assess their genetic diversity. Multilocus variable-number tandem-repeat analysis-16 identified 46 genotypes in these populations, including 37 unique and nine shared genotypes. Multilocus variable-number tandem-repeat analysis-11 showed that 71% of the isolates (47 of 66) were genotype 116 (1-5-3-13-2-2-3-2-4-41-8), a characteristic subgroup of the East Mediterranean group, showing that isolates from different geographical areas exhibit similar epidemiological characteristics in different regions and may be epidemiologically linked. Multilocus variable-number tandem-repeat analysis-11 also revealed that an isolate from Inner Mongolia had a novel genotype, 369 (1-5-3-13-2-2-3-2-7-41-8). Multilocus variable-number tandem-repeat analysis-16 genotyping of northwest China Brucella isolates allows a better understanding of the epidemiology of animal brucellosis in this region. This study is the first analysis of B. melitensis in Gansu province, and the results confirmed that in this province, isolates of this species are disorderly and unsystematic.
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Affiliation(s)
- X Cao
- State Key Laboratory of Veterinary Etiological Biology, Lanzhou Veterinary Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Lanzhou, China
| | - Z Li
- State Key Laboratory of Veterinary Etiological Biology, Lanzhou Veterinary Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Lanzhou, China
| | - Z Liu
- Baotou Medical College Inner Mongolia University of Science and Technology, Baotou, China.,Institute for Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Inner Mongolia Integrated Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Huhhot, China
| | - B Fu
- State Key Laboratory of Veterinary Etiological Biology, Lanzhou Veterinary Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Lanzhou, China
| | - Y Liu
- State Key Laboratory of Veterinary Etiological Biology, Lanzhou Veterinary Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Lanzhou, China
| | - Y Shang
- State Key Laboratory of Veterinary Etiological Biology, Lanzhou Veterinary Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Lanzhou, China
| | - J Zhou
- State Key Laboratory of Veterinary Etiological Biology, Lanzhou Veterinary Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Lanzhou, China
| | - Z Jing
- State Key Laboratory of Veterinary Etiological Biology, Lanzhou Veterinary Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Lanzhou, China
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22
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Evidence of ongoing brucellosis in livestock animals in North West Libya. J Epidemiol Glob Health 2017; 7:285-288. [PMID: 29110870 PMCID: PMC7384566 DOI: 10.1016/j.jegh.2017.09.001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/23/2017] [Revised: 08/26/2017] [Accepted: 09/12/2017] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Animal brucellosis is thought to be present in small ruminants, cattle, and camels in Libya, particularly in the west coastal strip. Before the system collapsed due to political unrest in 2011, prevalence of the disease did not exceed 0.2% in cattle, 0.1% in camels, 8.3% in sheep, and 14.8% in goats. The aim of this study was to highlight outbreaks of disease that took place during the 18-month period from November 2014 to April 2016. A total of 1612 serum samples, collected opportunistically from 29 herds in 12 different localities in the northwest region of Libya, were investigated for brucellosis. The samples were screened for Brucella antibodies using the Rose Bengal test, and confirmed with either indirect enzyme linked immunosorbent assay in the case of sheep, and/or a serum agglutination test, followed with a complement fixation test, in the case of cattle and camels. Our results showed the highest rates of brucellosis seropositivity in goats (33.4%) and sheep (9.2%). The overall percentage of brucellosis seropositivity was 21%. The high level of brucellosis identified by this study, particularly in small ruminants, strongly suggests re-emergence of the disease in the region. Re-evaluation of intervention measures applied to the control of brucellosis is highly recommended.
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23
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He M, Wang J, Chen L, Liu J, Zeng P. The Impact of Emerging Infectious Diseases on Chinese Blood Safety. Transfus Med Rev 2017; 31:94-101. [PMID: 27923518 PMCID: PMC7126663 DOI: 10.1016/j.tmrv.2016.10.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/19/2016] [Revised: 09/19/2016] [Accepted: 10/24/2016] [Indexed: 12/16/2022]
Abstract
Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) have always been one of the major threats to public health. Although the implementation of mandatory testing for 4 classical transfusion-transmitted infectious-human immunodeficiency virus, hepatitis B virus, hepatitis C virus, and syphilis-has reduced the transfusion risk of these pathogens, the potential threat of various EID agents and their constantly evolving variants to blood safety in China is not fully understood. This review presents 9 representative EID agents that are autochthonous and epidemic nationally or regionally in China. The epidemiologic status and distribution of these EID agents among donors and/or healthy populations are summarized. The potential risks of these EID agents to blood safety are discussed. The review also explores strategies to strengthen hemovigilance systems and studies to further evaluate the impact of EID agents on blood safety.
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Affiliation(s)
- Miao He
- Institute of Blood Transfusion, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Chengdu, Sichuan, China
| | - Jingxing Wang
- Institute of Blood Transfusion, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Chengdu, Sichuan, China
| | - Limin Chen
- Institute of Blood Transfusion, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Chengdu, Sichuan, China
| | - Jing Liu
- Department of Pathology, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Peibin Zeng
- West China School of Public Health, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, China.
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24
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Li F, Feng Z, Li P, You Z. Measuring directional urban spatial interaction in China: A migration perspective. PLoS One 2017; 12:e0171107. [PMID: 28141853 PMCID: PMC5283794 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0171107] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/26/2016] [Accepted: 01/16/2017] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
The study of urban spatial interaction is closely linked to that of economic geography, urban planning, regional development, and so on. Currently, this topic is generating a great deal of interest among researchers who are striving to find accurate ways to measure urban spatial interaction. Classical spatial interaction models lack theoretical guidance and require complicated parameter-adjusting processes. The radiation model, however, as proposed by Simini et al. with rigorous formula derivation, can simulate directional urban spatial interaction. We applied the radiation model in China to simulate the directional migration number among 337 nationwide research units, comprising 4 municipalities and 333 prefecture-level cities. We then analyzed the overall situation in Chinese cities, the interaction intensity hierarchy, and the prime urban agglomerations from the perspective of migration. This was done to ascertain China's urban spatial interaction and regional development from 2000 to 2010 to reveal ground realities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fangzhou Li
- Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Zhiming Feng
- Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Peng Li
- Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Zhen You
- Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
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25
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Zhan BD, Wang SQ, Lai SM, Lu Y, Shi XG, Cao GP, Hu XL, Zheng CJ, Yu ZY, Zhang JM, Fang CF, Gong ZY. Outbreak of Occupational Brucellosis at a Pharmaceutical Factory in Southeast China. Zoonoses Public Health 2016; 64:431-437. [PMID: 27863096 DOI: 10.1111/zph.12322] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/29/2016] [Indexed: 01/30/2023]
Abstract
Brucellosis is an occupational disease affecting workers in butcher shops, the milking and dairy product industry, causing more than 500 000 new cases around the world. As a national statutory B infectious disease in China, morbidity of brucellosis is rapidly increasing in recent years. We report an occupational outbreak of brucellosis infection in a pharmaceutical factory. Exposure was a result of manual operation in the process line, close contact with sheep placentas, insufficient disinfection and repeated using of protective suits and infected by aerosol dissemination. Improved preventive methods, appropriate public health measures and spread of health education would be helpful to prevent the occupational outbreak of brucellosis in future.
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Affiliation(s)
- B D Zhan
- Quzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Quzhou, China
| | - S Q Wang
- Quzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Quzhou, China
| | - S M Lai
- Quzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Quzhou, China
| | - Y Lu
- Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, China
| | - X G Shi
- Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, China
| | - G P Cao
- Quzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Quzhou, China
| | - X L Hu
- Quzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Quzhou, China
| | - C J Zheng
- Quzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Quzhou, China
| | - Z Y Yu
- Quzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Quzhou, China
| | - J M Zhang
- Quzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Quzhou, China
| | - C F Fang
- Quzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Quzhou, China
| | - Z Y Gong
- Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, China
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Xia ZQ, Zhang J, Xue YK, Sun GQ, Jin Z. Modeling the Transmission of Middle East Respirator Syndrome Corona Virus in the Republic of Korea. PLoS One 2015; 10:e0144778. [PMID: 26690750 PMCID: PMC4686901 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0144778] [Citation(s) in RCA: 32] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/28/2015] [Accepted: 11/23/2015] [Indexed: 12/25/2022] Open
Abstract
The 2015 epidemic of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) in the Republic of Korea has been the largest outbreak outside Middle East. This epidemic had caused 185 laboratory-confirmed cases and 36 deaths in the Republic of Korea until September 2, 2015, which attracted public’s attention. Based on the detailed data of patients released by World Health Organization (WHO) and actual propagation of the epidemic, we construct two dynamical models to simulate the propagation processes from May 20 to June 8 and from June 9 to July 10, 2015, respectively and find that the basic reproduction number R0 reaches up to 4.422. The numerical analysis shows that the reasons of the outbreak spread quickly are lack of self-protection sense and targeted control measures. Through partial correction analysis, the parameters β1 and γ have strong correlations with R0, i.e., the infectivity and proportion of the asymptomatic infected cases have much influence on the spread of disease. By sensitivity analysis, strengthening self-protection ability of susceptible and quickly isolating or monitoring close contacts are effective measures to control the disease.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhi-Qiang Xia
- Department of Mathematics, North University of China, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030051, PR China
- Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030006, PR China
| | - Juan Zhang
- Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030006, PR China
| | - Ya-Kui Xue
- Department of Mathematics, North University of China, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030051, PR China
- * E-mail: (YKX); (GQS); (ZJ)
| | - Gui-Quan Sun
- Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030006, PR China
- * E-mail: (YKX); (GQS); (ZJ)
| | - Zhen Jin
- Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030006, PR China
- * E-mail: (YKX); (GQS); (ZJ)
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27
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Huang JX, Wang JF, Li ZJ, Wang Y, Lai SJ, Yang WZ. Visualized Exploratory Spatiotemporal Analysis of Hand-Foot-Mouth Disease in Southern China. PLoS One 2015; 10:e0143411. [PMID: 26605919 PMCID: PMC4659604 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0143411] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/27/2015] [Accepted: 11/04/2015] [Indexed: 01/04/2023] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES In epidemiological research, major studies have focused on theoretical models; however, few methods of visual analysis have been used to display the patterns of disease distribution. DESIGN For this study, a method combining the space-time cube (STC) with space-time scan statistics (STSS) was used to analyze the pattern of incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) in Guangdong Province from May 2008 to March 2009. In this research, STC was used to display the spatiotemporal pattern of incidence of HFMD, and STSS were used to detect the local aggregations of the disease. SETTING The hand-foot-mouth disease data were obtained from Guangdong Province from May 2008 to March 2009, with a total of 68,130 cases. RESULTS The STC analysis revealed a differential pattern of HFMD incidence among different months and cities and also showed that the population density and average precipitation are correlated with the incidence of HFMD. The STSS analysis revealed that the most likely aggregation includes the Shenzhen, Foshan and Dongguan populations, which are the most developed regions in Guangdong Province. CONCLUSION Both STC and STSS are efficient tools for the exploratory data analysis of disease transmission. STC clearly displays the spatiotemporal patterns of disease. Using the maximum likelihood ratio, the STSS model precisely locates the most likely aggregation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ji-Xia Huang
- College of Forestry, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing, China
- State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
- State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Jin-Feng Wang
- State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Zhong-Jie Li
- Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Surveillance and Early-Warning, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Yan Wang
- Beijing Research Institute of Water Affair Automation, Beijing, China
| | - Sheng-Jie Lai
- Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Surveillance and Early-Warning, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Wei-Zhong Yang
- Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Surveillance and Early-Warning, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
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Zhang C, Zhou S, Chain BM. Hybrid epidemics--a case study on computer worm conficker. PLoS One 2015; 10:e0127478. [PMID: 25978309 PMCID: PMC4433115 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0127478] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/12/2014] [Accepted: 04/14/2015] [Indexed: 02/07/2023] Open
Abstract
Conficker is a computer worm that erupted on the Internet in 2008. It is unique in combining three different spreading strategies: local probing, neighbourhood probing, and global probing. We propose a mathematical model that combines three modes of spreading: local, neighbourhood, and global, to capture the worm's spreading behaviour. The parameters of the model are inferred directly from network data obtained during the first day of the Conficker epidemic. The model is then used to explore the tradeoff between spreading modes in determining the worm's effectiveness. Our results show that the Conficker epidemic is an example of a critically hybrid epidemic, in which the different modes of spreading in isolation do not lead to successful epidemics. Such hybrid spreading strategies may be used beneficially to provide the most effective strategies for promulgating information across a large population. When used maliciously, however, they can present a dangerous challenge to current internet security protocols.
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Affiliation(s)
- Changwang Zhang
- Department of Computer Science, University College London, London, United Kingdom
- Security Science Doctoral Research Training Centre, University College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Shi Zhou
- Department of Computer Science, University College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Benjamin M. Chain
- Division of Infection and Immunity, University College London, London, United Kingdom
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