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Hossain MS, Goyal R, Martin NK, DeGruttola V, Chowdhury MM, McMahan C, Rennert L. A flexible framework for local-level estimation of the effective reproductive number in geographic regions with sparse data. BMC Med Res Methodol 2025; 25:73. [PMID: 40102783 PMCID: PMC11917005 DOI: 10.1186/s12874-025-02525-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/11/2024] [Accepted: 03/03/2025] [Indexed: 03/20/2025] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Our research focuses on local-level estimation of the effective reproductive number, which describes the transmissibility of an infectious disease and represents the average number of individuals one infectious person infects at a given time. The ability to accurately estimate the infectious disease reproductive number in geographically granular regions is critical for disaster planning and resource allocation. However, not all regions have sufficient infectious disease outcome data; this lack of data presents a significant challenge for accurate estimation. METHODS To overcome this challenge, we propose a two-step approach that incorporates existing [Formula: see text] estimation procedures (EpiEstim, EpiFilter, EpiNow2) using data from geographic regions with sufficient data (step 1), into a covariate-adjusted Bayesian Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) spatial model to predict [Formula: see text] in regions with sparse or missing data (step 2). Our flexible framework effectively allows us to implement any existing estimation procedure for [Formula: see text] in regions with coarse or entirely missing data. We perform external validation and a simulation study to evaluate the proposed method and assess its predictive performance. RESULTS We applied our method to estimate [Formula: see text]using data from South Carolina (SC) counties and ZIP codes during the first COVID-19 wave ('Wave 1', June 16, 2020 - August 31, 2020) and the second wave ('Wave 2', December 16, 2020 - March 02, 2021). Among the three methods used in the first step, EpiNow2 yielded the highest accuracy of [Formula: see text] prediction in the regions with entirely missing data. Median county-level percentage agreement (PA) was 90.9% (Interquartile Range, IQR: 89.9-92.0%) and 92.5% (IQR: 91.6-93.4%) for Wave 1 and 2, respectively. Median zip code-level PA was 95.2% (IQR: 94.4-95.7%) and 96.5% (IQR: 95.8-97.1%) for Wave 1 and 2, respectively. Using EpiEstim, EpiFilter, and an ensemble-based approach yielded median PA ranging from 81.9 to 90.0%, 87.2-92.1%, and 88.4-90.9%, respectively, across both waves and geographic granularities. CONCLUSION These findings demonstrate that the proposed methodology is a useful tool for small-area estimation of [Formula: see text], as our flexible framework yields high prediction accuracy for regions with coarse or missing data.
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Affiliation(s)
- Md Sakhawat Hossain
- Department of Public Health Sciences, Clemson University, Clemson, SC, 29634, USA.
- Center for Public Health Modeling and Response, Clemson University, Clemson, SC, USA.
| | - Ravi Goyal
- Division of Infectious Diseases & Global Public Health, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA
| | - Natasha K Martin
- Division of Infectious Diseases & Global Public Health, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA
| | - Victor DeGruttola
- Division of Biostatistics, Herbert Wertheim School of Public Health and Longevity Science, University of California San Diego, San Diego, CA, USA
| | - Mohammad Mihrab Chowdhury
- Department of Public Health Sciences, Clemson University, Clemson, SC, 29634, USA
- Center for Public Health Modeling and Response, Clemson University, Clemson, SC, USA
| | - Christopher McMahan
- Center for Public Health Modeling and Response, Clemson University, Clemson, SC, USA
- School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, Clemson University, Clemson, SC, USA
| | - Lior Rennert
- Department of Public Health Sciences, Clemson University, Clemson, SC, 29634, USA.
- Center for Public Health Modeling and Response, Clemson University, Clemson, SC, USA.
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Hossain MS, Goyal R, Martin NK, DeGruttola V, Chowdhury MM, McMahan C, Rennert L. A Flexible Framework for Local-Level Estimation of the Effective Reproductive Number in Geographic Regions with Sparse Data. MEDRXIV : THE PREPRINT SERVER FOR HEALTH SCIENCES 2025:2024.11.06.24316859. [PMID: 40162254 PMCID: PMC11952488 DOI: 10.1101/2024.11.06.24316859] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/02/2025]
Abstract
Background Our research focuses on local-level estimation of the effective reproductive number, which describes the transmissibility of an infectious disease and represents the average number of individuals one infectious person infects at a given time. The ability to accurately estimate the infectious disease reproductive number in geographically granular regions is critical for disaster planning and resource allocation. However, not all regions have sufficient infectious disease outcome data; this lack of data presents a significant challenge for accurate estimation. Methods To overcome this challenge, we propose a two-step approach that incorporates existingR t estimation procedures (EpiEstim, EpiFilter, EpiNow2) using data from geographic regions with sufficient data (step 1), into a covariate-adjusted Bayesian Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) spatial model to predictR t in regions with sparse or missing data (step 2). Our flexible framework effectively allows us to implement any existing estimation procedure forR t in regions with coarse or entirely missing data. We perform external validation and a simulation study to evaluate the proposed method and assess its predictive performance. Results We applied our method to estimateR t using data from South Carolina (SC) counties and ZIP codes during the first COVID-19 wave ('Wave 1', June 16, 2020 - August 31, 2020) and the second wave ('Wave 2', December 16, 2020 - March 02, 2021). Among the three methods used in the first step, EpiNow2 yielded the highest accuracy ofR t prediction in the regions with entirely missing data. Median county-level percentage agreement (PA) was 90.9% (Interquartile Range, IQR: 89.9-92.0%) and 92.5% (IQR: 91.6-93.4%) for Wave 1 and 2, respectively. Median zip code-level PA was 95.2% (IQR: 94.4-95.7%) and 96.5% (IQR: 95.8-97.1%) for Wave 1 and 2, respectively. Using EpiEstim, EpiFilter, and an ensemble-based approach yielded median PA ranging from 81.9%-90.0%, 87.2%-92.1%, and 88.4%-90.9%, respectively, across both waves and geographic granularities. Conclusion These findings demonstrate that the proposed methodology is a useful tool for small-area estimation ofR t , as our flexible framework yields high prediction accuracy for regions with coarse or missing data.
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Affiliation(s)
- Md Sakhawat Hossain
- Department of Public Health Sciences, Clemson University, Clemson, SC, USA
- Center for Public Health Modeling and Response, Clemson University, Clemson, SC, USA
| | - Ravi Goyal
- Division of Infectious Diseases & Global Public Health, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA
| | - Natasha K Martin
- Division of Infectious Diseases & Global Public Health, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA
| | - Victor DeGruttola
- Division of Biostatistics, Herbert Wertheim School of Public Health and Longevity Science, University of California San Diego, San Diego, California, USA
| | - Mohammad Mihrab Chowdhury
- Department of Public Health Sciences, Clemson University, Clemson, SC, USA
- Center for Public Health Modeling and Response, Clemson University, Clemson, SC, USA
| | - Christopher McMahan
- Center for Public Health Modeling and Response, Clemson University, Clemson, SC, USA
- School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, Clemson University, Clemson, SC, USA
| | - Lior Rennert
- Department of Public Health Sciences, Clemson University, Clemson, SC, USA
- Center for Public Health Modeling and Response, Clemson University, Clemson, SC, USA
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Carmignani F. Why nanny statism matters: evidence from the first wave of COVID-19. BMC Public Health 2024; 24:1963. [PMID: 39044203 PMCID: PMC11265364 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-024-19477-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/01/2023] [Accepted: 07/14/2024] [Indexed: 07/25/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND A nanny state imposes restrictions on people's liberty and freedom of action in order to advance their interest and welfare. The extent to which this is desirable, or even ethically acceptable, is debated in the literature. This paper formulates and tests the following hypothesis: the more of a nanny a state has been in the past, the more likely it is that the incumbent government will respond to a new, unknown threat with interventions of a paternalist nature, irrespective of other factors that might contribute to shaping government's response. This hypothesis is then taken to the data using the first wave of COVID-19 as an empirical test. METHODS Data are collected from secondary sources for a sample of 99 countries. Nanny statism is measured by the number of paternalist laws and regulations adopted by a country in the past. The response to COVID is proxied by the time of adoption of control and containment measures and their stringency. The public health outcome is measured by the COVID-19 death toll at the end of June 2020. These variables, plus several controls, are then used to estimate a set of linear and probit regressions and a proportional hazard model of the timing of adoption of control and containment measures. RESULTS An increase in nanny statism by 0.1 (on a scale from 0 to 10) on average increases the probability of adoption of control and containment measures by 0.077 (i.e. 7.7 percentage points). The central tenement of the hypothesis is therefore consistent with the empirical evidence. The linear and probit regressions also show that there is no evidence of a significant effect of nanny statism on the stringency of the measures adopted. Irrespective of stringency, however, early adoption of control and containment measures is found to reduce the death toll of COVID-19 in the first half of 2020: an increase in nanny statism by 0.1 reduces the COVID death toll by approximately 7%. CONCLUSIONS A tradition of nanny statism potentially leads to a more timely and effective public policy response to a new, unknown crisis. Further tests of the hypothesis should look at the relationship between nanny statism and public health outcomes from natural disasters.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fabrizio Carmignani
- School of Business, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Australia.
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Arija Prieto P, Antonini M, Ammi M, Genie M, Paolucci F. Political determinants of COVID-19 restrictions and vaccine rollouts: The case of regional elections in Italy and Spain. Health Policy 2024; 145:105082. [PMID: 38781708 DOI: 10.1016/j.healthpol.2024.105082] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/05/2023] [Revised: 03/15/2024] [Accepted: 05/12/2024] [Indexed: 05/25/2024]
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic is one of the most significant public health crises in modern history, with considerable impacts on the policy frameworks of national governments. In response to the pandemic, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and mass vaccination campaigns have been employed to protect vulnerable groups. Through the lens of Political Budget Cycle (PBC) theory, this study explores the interplay between incumbent electoral concerns and political dynamics in influencing the implementation of NPIs and vaccination rollout within the administrative regions of Italy and Spain during the period spanning June 2020 to July 2021. The results reveal that incumbents up for the next scheduled election are 5.8 % more likely to increase the stringency of containment measures than those that face a term limit. The findings also demonstrate that the seats of the incumbent and coalition parties in parliament and the number of parties in the coalition have a negative effect on both the efficiency of the vaccination rollout and the stringency of NPIs. Additionally, the competitiveness of the election emerges as an important predictor of the strictness of NPIs. Therefore, our results suggest that incumbents may strategically manipulate COVID-19 policy measures to optimize electoral outcomes. The study underscores the substantive influence of political incentives, competitive electoral environments, and government coalitions on policy formulation during health emergencies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pablo Arija Prieto
- Department of Sociology and Business Law, University of Bologna, Bologna 40126, Italy
| | - Marcello Antonini
- School of Medicine and Public Health, University of Newcastle, Callaghan, NSW 2308, Australia; Department of Health Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, WC2A 2AE, UK.
| | - Mehdi Ammi
- School of Public Policy and Administration, Carleton University, Richcraft Hall, 1125 Colonel By Dr, Ottawa, ON, K1S 5B6, Canada
| | - Mesfin Genie
- Newcastle Business School, University of Newcastle, Newcastle, NSW, 2300, Australia; Health Economics Research Unit, Institute of Applied Health Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen AB25 2ZD, UK; Department of Population Health Sciences, Duke University, 215 Morris Street, Durham, NC, 27701, USA
| | - Francesco Paolucci
- Department of Sociology and Business Law, University of Bologna, Bologna 40126, Italy; Newcastle Business School, University of Newcastle, Newcastle, NSW, 2300, Australia
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Lee SY, Ham JH, Park HK, Jang DH, Jang WM. Association Between Risk Perceptions of COVID-19, Political Ideology, and Mask-Wearing Behavior After the Outbreak: A Cross-Sectional Survey in South Korea. Risk Manag Healthc Policy 2024; 17:1659-1668. [PMID: 38915789 PMCID: PMC11195682 DOI: 10.2147/rmhp.s463739] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/10/2024] [Accepted: 06/11/2024] [Indexed: 06/26/2024] Open
Abstract
Purpose After the declaration by the World Health Organization signaling the conclusion of the COVID-19 pandemic, most countries lifted mandatory mask-wearing regulations. This study aimed to investigate factors such as risk perception and political ideology associated with continued adherence to mask-wearing among specific populations, particularly when it is no longer deemed necessary. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional study including a sample of 1001 respondents stratified by sex, age (≥ 18 years), and region from January 31 to February 2, 2023, after the mandatory mask regulation was lifted in South Korea. Multivariate logistic regression models were applied to estimate the relationships between risk perceptions, political ideology, and mask-wearing maintenance, adjusting for factors such as sex, age, occupation, and trust in the government. Results Our results indicated significant associations between age, self-reported household economic status, political ideology, affective risk perception, and perceived effectiveness of the government's COVID-related measures with indoor mask-wearing. Specifically, liberals were more likely to keep mask-wearing indoors than conservatives (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 2.19; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.33-3.59); and those who perceived a greater affective risk of COVID-19 (aOR: 2.47; 95% CI: 1.96-3.10), along with those who perceived the government's countermeasures as inadequate, were more inclined to maintain the habit of wearing masks indoors (aOR: 1.90; 95% CI: 1.19-3.03). Conclusion Our study highlighted the multifaceted factors influencing mask-wearing behavior in the post-COVID-19 era. Even after adjusting for various confounding factors, such as age, sex, and trust in the government, an association remained between affective risk perception, political ideology, and mask-wearing behavior. However, further research for psychological mechanisms is needed to foster a culture of preventive behaviors proportional to the risk of infection.
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Affiliation(s)
- Seung Yeon Lee
- Department of Administration, Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul, South Korea
- Office of External Affairs, Seoul Metropolitan Government-Seoul National University Boramae Medical Centre, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Ji Hye Ham
- Seoul Public Health Research Institute, Seoul Medical Center, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Hyun-Kyung Park
- Health Insurance Research Institute, National Health Insurance Service, Wonju, South Korea
| | - Deok Hyun Jang
- Research Analytics & Communications, Gallup Korea, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Won Mo Jang
- Department of Public Health and Community Medicine, Seoul Metropolitan Government-Seoul National University Boramae Medical Centre, Seoul, South Korea
- Department of Health Policy and Management, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea
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Mao Y. Why do democracies respond differently to COVID-19? A comparison of the United States and South Korea. Front Public Health 2024; 11:1285552. [PMID: 38288425 PMCID: PMC10822946 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1285552] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/30/2023] [Accepted: 12/28/2023] [Indexed: 01/31/2024] Open
Abstract
Background COVID-19 has posed severe challenges to crisis management in democracies. Different democracies respond to the crisis differently. This article proposes an analytical framework to explain why democracies respond differently to the public health crisis and how different contextual factors affect crisis response in democracies. Methods By comparing COVID-19 responses in the US and South Korea, this article conducts a comparative case study with a most similar system design. The two countries have been selected as cases because they are both developed democracies with a robust healthcare system. However, different contextual factors in the two countries have created different crisis responses by shaping different crisis leadership and political and social solidarity. This study collected data from different sources, including government documents, official websites, leaders' speeches, research reports, academic articles and news media. We tried to enhance the reliability of the data by comparing different data sources. Results We found that individual, institutional and cultural dimensions of contextual factors can influence different crisis responses of democratic countries by shaping crisis leadership and political and social solidarity. On the individual and institutional dimensions, leadership style and governance structure shape crisis leadership (sense making, decision making and coordinating, and meaning making), which in turn influences crisis management. On the cultural dimension, political and social solidarity measured by political polarization and social cooperation are shaped by cultural and social norms. Conclusion Our findings indicate that democracies require strong crisis leadership and a high degree of political and social solidarity to tackle public health crises. A centralized and coordinated system, as well as a political elite leadership style shaped by rich crisis response experience, expertise and high sensitivity to crises are conducive to crisis management. Fostering a cultural and social norm that facilitates state-society collaboration can promote crisis management. These findings provide valuable insights for decision-makers to effectively respond to future pandemics.
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Wei Z, Zhuang J. On the adoption of nonpharmaceutical interventions during the pandemic: An evolutionary game model. RISK ANALYSIS : AN OFFICIAL PUBLICATION OF THE SOCIETY FOR RISK ANALYSIS 2023; 43:2298-2311. [PMID: 36635059 DOI: 10.1111/risa.14093] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
The adoption of behavioral nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) among the public is essential for tackling the COVID-19 pandemic, yet presents challenges due to the complexity of human behaviors. A large body of literature has utilized classic game theory to investigate the population's decisions regarding the adoption of interventions, where the static solution concept such as the Nash equilibrium is studied. However, individual adoption behavior is not static, instead it is a dynamic process that involves the strategic interactions with other counterparts over time. The study of quantitatively analyzing the dynamics on precautionary behavior during an outbreak is rather scarce. This article fills the research gap by developing an evolutionary game-theoretic framework to model the dynamics of population behavior on the adoption of NPI. We construct the two-group asymmetric game, where behavioral change for each group is characterized by replicator equations. Sensitivity analyses are performed to examine the long-term stability of equilibrium points with respect to perturbation of model parameters. We found that the limiting behavior of intervention adoption in the population consists of only pure strategies in a game setting, indicating that the evolutionary outcome is that everyone either takes up the preventive measure or not. We also applied the framework to examine the mask-wearing behavior, and validated with actual data. Overall, this article provides insights into population dynamics on the adoption of intervention strategy during the outbreak, which can be beneficial for policy makers to better understand the evolutionary trajectory of population behavior.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhiyuan Wei
- Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, New York, USA
| | - Jun Zhuang
- Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, New York, USA
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Burhan E, Liu K, Marwali EM, Huth S, Wulung NGHML, Juzar DA, Taufik MA, Wijaya SO, Wati DK, Kusumastuti NP, Yuliarto S, Pratomo BY, Pradian E, Somasetia DH, Rusmawatiningtyas D, Fatoni AZ, Mandei JM, Lantang EY, Perdhana F, Semedi BP, Rayhan M, Tarigan TRS, White N, Bassi GL, Suen JY, Fraser JF. Characteristics and outcomes of patients with severe COVID-19 in Indonesia: Lessons from the first wave. PLoS One 2023; 18:e0290964. [PMID: 37747884 PMCID: PMC10519602 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0290964] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/12/2022] [Accepted: 08/18/2023] [Indexed: 09/27/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Indonesia's national response to COVID-19 evolved rapidly throughout 2020. Understanding pandemic response and outcomes is crucial for better mitigation strategies ahead. This study describes the characteristics and outcomes of patients admitted to ICU during the early stages of the pandemic. METHODS This is a multi-centre prospective observational study including patients from twelve collaborating hospitals in Indonesia. All patients were clinically suspected or laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases admitted to ICU between January 2020 and March 2021. The primary outcome was monthly ICU mortality. Descriptive statistics of patient characteristics and treatment were generated as secondary outcomes. RESULTS From 559 subjects, the overall mortality was 68% and decreased over the study period, while the mortality of patients that received mechanical ventilation was 92%, consistently high over the study period. Fatal cases showed 2- and 4-day delays from symptoms onset to hospital admissions and ICU admissions, respectively. Evidence-backed approaches which could influence patient outcome, such as extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, prone positioning, renal replacement therapy, and neuromuscular blockade were scarcely administered. CONCLUSIONS The mortality rate of COVID-19 patients in Indonesia was extremely high during the first major outbreak of disease, particularly in those mechanically ventilated. Delayed admission and unavailability of evidence-based approaches due to high burden on health facility during COVID-19 crisis could be addressed by efficient public health measures and enhancing health infrastructure to improve the future pandemic response.
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Affiliation(s)
- Erlina Burhan
- Faculty of Medicine, Department of Pulmonology and Respiratory Medicine, Universitas Indonesia and Persahabatan Hospital, Jakarta, Indonesia
| | - Keibun Liu
- Critical Care Research Group, The Prince Charles Hospital, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
- Faculty of Medicine, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
| | - Eva M. Marwali
- Pediatric Cardiac Intensive Care Unit, National Cardiovascular Center Harapan Kita, Jakarta, Indonesia
| | - Samuel Huth
- Critical Care Research Group, The Prince Charles Hospital, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
- Faculty of Medicine, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
| | | | - Dafsah A. Juzar
- Departement of Cardiology and Vascular Medicine, Intensive Cardiovascular Care Unit, National Cardiovascular Center Harapan Kita and Universitas Indonesia, Jakarta, Indonesia
| | - Muhammad A. Taufik
- Anesthesiology and Critical Care Department, Fatmawati General Hospital, Jakarta, Indonesia
| | - Surya O. Wijaya
- Intensive Care Unit, Sulianti Saroso Hospital, Jakarta, Indonesia
| | - Dyah K. Wati
- Pediatric Intensive Care Unit, Sanglah Hospital, Denpasar, Bali, Indonesia
| | - Neurinda P. Kusumastuti
- Pediatric Intensive Care Unit, Universitas Airlangga Hospital, Surabaya, East Java, Indonesia
| | - Saptadi Yuliarto
- Pediatric Intensive Care Unit, Saiful Anwar Hospital, Malang, East Java, Indonesia
| | | | - Erwin Pradian
- Intensive Care Unit, Hasan Sadikin Hospital, Bandung, West Java, Indonesia
| | - Dadang H. Somasetia
- Pediatric Intensive Care Unit, Hasan Sadikin Hospital, Bandung, West Java, Indonesia
| | | | - Arie Z. Fatoni
- Intensive Care Unit, Saiful Anwar Hospital, Malang, East Java, Indonesia
| | - Jose M. Mandei
- Pediatric Intensive Care Unit, RSUP Prof Dr R. D. Kandou Manado, Indonesia
| | - Eka Y. Lantang
- Intensive Care Unit, RSUP Prof Dr R. D. Kandou Manado, Indonesia
| | - Fajar Perdhana
- Intensive Care Unit, Universitas Airlangga Hospital, Surabaya, East Java, Indonesia
| | | | - Muhammad Rayhan
- Pediatric Cardiac Intensive Care Unit, National Cardiovascular Center Harapan Kita, Jakarta, Indonesia
| | - Tiffany R. S. Tarigan
- Pediatric Cardiac Intensive Care Unit, National Cardiovascular Center Harapan Kita, Jakarta, Indonesia
| | | | - Gianluigi L. Bassi
- Critical Care Research Group, The Prince Charles Hospital, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
- Faculty of Medicine, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
| | - Jacky Y. Suen
- Critical Care Research Group, The Prince Charles Hospital, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
- Faculty of Medicine, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
| | - John F. Fraser
- Critical Care Research Group, The Prince Charles Hospital, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
- Faculty of Medicine, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
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Sorsa VP, Kivikoski K. COVID-19 and democracy: a scoping review. BMC Public Health 2023; 23:1668. [PMID: 37649016 PMCID: PMC10469824 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-023-16172-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/09/2022] [Accepted: 06/22/2023] [Indexed: 09/01/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The resilience of democracy is tested under exogenous shocks such as crises. The COVID-19 pandemic has recently tested the resilience of democratic institutions and practices around the world. AIM The purpose of this article is to scope the early research literature that discusses democracy and the COVID-19 pandemic. We review scientific journal articles published during the first two years of the pandemic. We ask three research questions in scoping this body of literature: (1) what are the key topic areas of all published research that associates itself with both democracy and COVID-19, (2) what kinds of conceptual and theoretical contributions has research literature that more specifically discusses democracy under the pandemic produced, and (3) what are the impacts of democracy to the pandemic and vice versa according to empirical research? METHODS The scoping review methodology draws on systematic literature search strategies, computational methods, and manual coding. The systematic Web of Science search produced 586 articles for which we conducted a Correlated Topic Model. After technical and manual screening, we identified 94 journal articles that were manually coded. RESULTS The early research on democracy and the COVID-19 pandemic offers a versatile body of scholarship. The topic modeling shows that the scholarship discusses issues of crises, governance, rights, society, epidemiology, politics, electorate, technology, and media. The body of papers with conceptual and theoretical contributions has offered new insights on the difficulties, possibilities, and means to maintain democracy under a pandemic. Empirical research on democracy's impact on the COVID-19 pandemic and vice versa varies in terms of methodology, geographical scope, and scientific contributions according to the direction of influence studied. Democracy appears to have a significant impact on some aspects of policy responses and epidemiological characteristics of the pandemic. In most parts of the world, the scope, franchise, and authenticity of democracy narrowed down due to the pandemic, albeit in most cases only temporarily. CONCLUSIONS A significant number of papers show that the pandemic has accentuated democratic backsliding but is unlikely to have undermined established democracies that have proved resilient in face of the pandemic. But empirical research has also made visible some weak signals of antidemocratic tendencies that may become more accentuated in the longer run.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ville-Pekka Sorsa
- Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 18, FI-00014, Helsinki, Finland.
| | - Katja Kivikoski
- Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 18, FI-00014, Helsinki, Finland
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Tsai JY, Shih TJ, Tsai TI, Lee SM, Liang CM. Individualism, economic development, and democracy as determinants of COVID-19 risk information on 132 government websites. Prev Med Rep 2023; 34:102242. [PMID: 37214163 PMCID: PMC10181946 DOI: 10.1016/j.pmedr.2023.102242] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/29/2022] [Revised: 05/02/2023] [Accepted: 05/10/2023] [Indexed: 05/24/2023] Open
Abstract
Little is known about how governments transparently communicate about COVID-19. This study conducted a content analysis of 132 government COVID-19 websites to identify the salience of health messages (i.e., perceived threat, perceived efficacy, and perceived resilience) and cross-national determinants of information provision. Multinomial logistic regression was used to estimate the relationship between country-level predictors (i.e., economic development, democracy scores, and individualism index) and information salience. The numbers of deaths, discharged patients, and daily new cases were prevalent on the main webpages. Subpages provided information about vulnerability statistics, government responses, and vaccination rates. Less than 10% of governments included messages that may instill self-efficacy. Democratic countries had higher chances of providing threat statistics on subpages, including daily new cases (Relative Risk Ratio, RRR = 1.66, 95% CI: 1.16-2.37), mortalities (RRR = 1.69, 95% CI: 1.23-2.33), hospitalizations (RRR = 1.63, 95% CI: 1.12-2.37), and positivity rates (RRR = 1.55, 95% CI: 1.07-2.23). On subpages, democratic governments emphasized information about perceived vulnerability (RRR = 2.36, 95% CI: 1.50-3.73), perceived response efficacy (RRR = 1.48, 95% CI: 1.06-2.06), recovery numbers (RRR = 1.84, 95% CI: 1.31-2.60), and vaccinations (RRR = 2.14, 95% CI: 1.39-3.30). Developed countries reported the number of daily new cases, perceived response efficacy, and vaccination rates on their COVID-19 main pages. Individualism scores predicted the salience of vaccination rates on main pages and the omission of information related to perceived severity and perceived vulnerability. Democracy levels were more predictive of reporting information about perceived severity, perceived response efficacy, and perceived resilience on subpages of dedicated websites. Improving public health agencies' communication about COVID-19 is warranted.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jiun-Yi Tsai
- School of Communication, Northern Arizona University, United States
| | - Tsung-Jen Shih
- International Master's Program in International Communication Studies, Taiwan Institute for Governance and Communication Research, National Chengchi University, Taiwan
| | - Tien-I Tsai
- Department of Library and Information Science, National Taiwan University, Taiwan
| | - Shao-Man Lee
- Miin Wu School of Computing, National Cheng Kung University, Taiwan
| | - Chih-Ming Liang
- Graduate Institute of Health and Biotechnology Law, College of Humanities and Social Sciences, Taipei Medical University, Taiwan
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11
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Chen M, Dong Y, Shi X, Zhuang J. Global analysis of the COVID-19 policy activity levels and evolution patterns: A cross-sectional study. Health Sci Rep 2023; 6:e1350. [PMID: 37342293 PMCID: PMC10277603 DOI: 10.1002/hsr2.1350] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/26/2022] [Revised: 05/28/2023] [Accepted: 06/01/2023] [Indexed: 06/22/2023] Open
Abstract
Background and Aims Since the beginning of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), a large number of government policies have been implemented worldwide in response to the global spread of COVID-19. This paper aims at developing a data-driven analysis to answer the three research questions: (a) Compared to the pandemic development, are the global government COVID-19 policies sufficiently active? (b) What are the differences and characteristics in the policy activity levels at the country level? (c) What types of COVID-19 policy patterns are forming? Methods Using the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker data set, we present a global analysis of the COVID-19 policy activity levels and evolution patterns from January 1, 2020 to June 30, 2022, based on the differential expression-sliding window analysis (DE-SWAN) algorithm and the clustering ensemble algorithm. Results Within the period under study, the results indicate that (a) the global government policy responses to COVID-19 are very active, and the policy activity levels are significantly higher than those of global pandemic developments; (b) a high activity of policy is positively correlated to pandemic prevention at the country level; and (c) a high human development index (HDI) score is negatively correlated to the country policy activity level. Furthermore, we propose to categorize the global policy evolution patterns into three categories: (i) Mainstream (152 countries); (ii) China; and (iii) Others (34 countries). Conclusion This work is one of the few studies that quantitatively explores the evolutionary characteristics of global government policies on COVID-19, and our results provide some new perspectives on global policy activity levels and evolution patterns.
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Affiliation(s)
- Meiqian Chen
- Center for Network Big Data and Decision‐Making, Business SchoolSichuan UniversityChengduChina
| | - Yucheng Dong
- Center for Network Big Data and Decision‐Making, Business SchoolSichuan UniversityChengduChina
- Xiangjiang LaboratoryChangshaChina
| | - Xiaoping Shi
- Irving K. Barber School of Arts and SciencesUniversity of British ColumbiaKelownaBritish ColumbiaCanada
| | - Jun Zhuang
- Department of Industrial and Systems EngineeringUniversity at BuffaloBuffaloNew YorkUSA
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12
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Fundytus K, Santamaria-Plaza C, McLaren L. Policy diffusion theory, evidence-informed public health, and public health political science: a scoping review. CANADIAN JOURNAL OF PUBLIC HEALTH = REVUE CANADIENNE DE SANTE PUBLIQUE 2023; 114:331-345. [PMID: 36944893 PMCID: PMC10030077 DOI: 10.17269/s41997-023-00752-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/05/2022] [Accepted: 02/03/2023] [Indexed: 03/23/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Our aim was to synthesize published scholarship that applies policy diffusion-a theory of the policy process that considers the interdependence of government-level public health policy choices. We paid particular attention to the role of scientific evidence in the diffusion process, and to identifying challenges and gaps towards strengthening the intersection of public health, public policy, and political science. METHODS We systematically searched 17 electronic academic databases. We included English-language, peer-reviewed articles published between 2000 and 2021. For each article, we extracted the following information: public health policy domain, geographic setting, diffusion directions and mechanisms, the role of scientific evidence in the diffusion process, and author research discipline. SYNTHESIS We identified 39 peer-reviewed, primary research articles. Anti-smoking and tobacco control policies in the United States (n = 9/39) were the most common policy domain and geographic context examined; comparatively fewer studies examined policy diffusion in the Canadian context (n = 4/39). In terms of how policies diffuse, we found evidence of five diffusion mechanisms (learning, emulation, competition, coercion, and social contagion), which could moreover be conditional on internal government characteristics. The role of scientific evidence in the diffusion process was unclear, as only five articles discussed this. Policy diffusion theory was primarily used by public policy and political science scholars (n = 19/39), with comparatively fewer interdisciplinary authorship teams (n = 6/39). CONCLUSION Policy diffusion theory provides important insights into the intergovernmental factors that influence public health policy decisions, thus helping to expand our conceptualization of evidence-informed public health. Despite this, policy diffusion research in the Canadian public health context is limited.
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Affiliation(s)
- Katrina Fundytus
- Department of Community Health Sciences, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada.
| | | | - Lindsay McLaren
- Department of Community Health Sciences, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada
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13
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Liu LS, Jia X, Zhu A, Ran GJ, Johnston D, Siegert R, Gong Y, French N, Lu J. Measuring the missing: Knowledge, risk perceptions and self-protection practices of COVID-19 among the Asian population in New Zealand: An online survey. ZEITSCHRIFT FUR GESUNDHEITSWISSENSCHAFTEN = JOURNAL OF PUBLIC HEALTH 2023:1-18. [PMID: 37361274 PMCID: PMC10193356 DOI: 10.1007/s10389-023-01926-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/11/2023] [Accepted: 04/28/2023] [Indexed: 06/28/2023]
Abstract
Aim Asians are the second largest and fastest growing non-European population in New Zealand but are under-researched in terms of their COVID-19 pandemic response. The paper aims to illustrates Asians' risk perceptions and knowledge of COVID-19, and self-protection practices to avoid infection and prevent community transmission. Subject and methods An online survey was used to collect data and received 402 valid responses. Data analyses included: 1) a descriptive analysis by using Chi-square tests and a Kruskal-Wallis rank sum tests to explore associations between responses and the four demographic variables (i.e. age, gender, country of origin/ethnicity, and region); and 2) a correlation analysis between different survey objectives. Results The descriptive analysis of the survey found that while ethnicity (within the Asian category) was the most influential variable that resulted in varying responses to many questions, gender and age were other two important variables in influencing the answering patterns. The correlation analysis found a positive correlation between the perceived 'dangerousness' of COVID-19 and respondents' overall compliance behaviour to New Zealand authorities' recommendations to prevent spread of COVID-19. Conclusion The majority of the respondents provided correct answers to the questions about the vulnerable populations, symptoms, asymptomatic transmission and potential sequelae of COVID-19; however, their understanding of the availability of a cure for, and the incubation period of COVID-19 was not consistent with the official information. The research also found that the higher perceived dangerousness of COVID-19, the better compliance to self-protection practices among the surveyed population.
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Affiliation(s)
- Liangni Sally Liu
- School of Humanities, Media and Creative Communication, Massey University, Auckland, New Zealand
| | - Xiaoyun Jia
- Institute of Governance & School of Politics and Public Administration, Shandong University, Qingdao, China
| | - Andrew Zhu
- Trace Research Ltd, Auckland, New Zealand
| | - Guanyu Jason Ran
- School of Applied Sciences, Edinburgh Napier University, Edinburgh, UK
| | - David Johnston
- Joint Centre for Disaster Research, Massey University, Wellington, New Zealand
| | - Richard Siegert
- Department of Psychology & Neuroscience, School of Clinical Sciences, Auckland University of Technology, Auckland, New Zealand
| | - Yuan Gong
- School of Humanities, Media and Creative Communication, Massey University, Auckland, New Zealand
| | - Nigel French
- Infectious Diseases Research Centre, Hopkirk Research Institute, Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand
| | - Jun Lu
- Auckland Bioengineering Institute, The University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
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14
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Shi H, Wang J, Cheng J, Qi X, Ji H, Struchiner CJ, Villela DAM, Karamov EV, Turgiev AS. Big data technology in infectious diseases modeling, simulation, and prediction after the COVID-19 outbreak. INTELLIGENT MEDICINE 2023; 3:85-96. [PMID: 36694623 PMCID: PMC9851724 DOI: 10.1016/j.imed.2023.01.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/05/2022] [Revised: 12/06/2022] [Accepted: 01/04/2023] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
After the outbreak of COVID-19, the interaction of infectious disease systems and social systems has challenged traditional infectious disease modeling methods. Starting from the research purpose and data, researchers improved the structure and data of the compartment model or used agents and artificial intelligence based models to solve epidemiological problems. In terms of modeling methods, the researchers use compartment subdivision, dynamic parameters, agent-based model methods, and artificial intelligence related methods. In terms of factors studied, the researchers studied 6 categories: human mobility, nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), ages, medical resources, human response, and vaccine. The researchers completed the study of factors through modeling methods to quantitatively analyze the impact of social systems and put forward their suggestions for the future transmission status of infectious diseases and prevention and control strategies. This review started with a research structure of research purpose, factor, data, model, and conclusion. Focusing on the post-COVID-19 infectious disease prediction simulation research, this study summarized various improvement methods and analyzes matching improvements for various specific research purposes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Honghao Shi
- School of Computer Science and Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China
| | - Jingyuan Wang
- School of Computer Science and Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China
| | - Jiawei Cheng
- School of Computer Science and Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China
| | - Xiaopeng Qi
- Center for Global Public Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102211, China
| | - Hanran Ji
- Center for Global Public Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102211, China
| | - Claudio J Struchiner
- Fundação Getúlio Vargas, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
- Instituto de Medicina Social Hesio Cordeiro, Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Daniel AM Villela
- Programa de Computação Científica, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Eduard V Karamov
- Gamaleya National Research Center for Epidemiology and Microbiology of the Russian Ministry of Health, Russia
- National Medical Research Center of Phthisiopulmonology and Infectious Diseases of the Russian Ministry of Health, Russia
| | - Ali S Turgiev
- Gamaleya National Research Center for Epidemiology and Microbiology of the Russian Ministry of Health, Russia
- National Medical Research Center of Phthisiopulmonology and Infectious Diseases of the Russian Ministry of Health, Russia
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15
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Self-Efficacy in Disrupted Environments: COVID-19 as a Natural Experiment. ENTREPRENEURSHIP THEORY AND PRACTICE 2023; 47:724-750. [PMCID: PMC10107022 DOI: 10.1177/10422587211046548] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
In two studies, we investigate whether the link between entrepreneurial self-efficacy and entrepreneurial intentions depends on outcome expectations. In Study 1, we exploit the COVID-19-induced lockdown as a natural experiment in a two-wave student sample. We compare the efficacy–intention link in survey responses submitted right before and right after the lockdown. In Study 2, we conceptually replicate and extend the findings via an online vignette experiment. Together, these studies show that a disruption of stable institutionalized outcome expectations implying increasing risk and uncertainty makes self-efficacy a weaker predictor of entrepreneurial intentions, particularly among those with pessimistic perceptions.
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16
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Li Z, Yang B, Wang J, Wen Y, Xu J, Ling L, Wang T. Global border restrictions in 2020-2021: Adherence and the effectiveness in long-term COVID-19 epidemic control. Travel Med Infect Dis 2023; 52:102556. [PMID: 36805032 PMCID: PMC9946459 DOI: 10.1016/j.tmaid.2023.102556] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/08/2022] [Revised: 12/05/2022] [Accepted: 02/15/2023] [Indexed: 02/23/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Restrictions on international travel were widely applied to contain cross-border COVID-19 diffusion, while such applications varied globally, and little was known about their impacts on the long-term epidemic progression. METHODS We explored the global diversity in maintaining border policies classified to four levels (screening, quarantine, ban on regions and total border closure) using data of 185 countries and regions between 01 January 2020 to 31 December 2021. By using Ordinary least squares (OLS) regression and quantile regression (QR) models, we examined the relationship between total COVID-19 incidence and the cumulative duration of each policy level in 2020-2021, and the heterogeneity of such association across different transmission severity countries. RESULTS Firstly, "ban on regions" was the most durable policy applied in high-income countries, while in low-income countries, less stringent measures of screening and quarantine arrivals were applied the longest. Secondly, the cumulatively longer maintenance of the border quarantine was significantly associated with lower infections (log) in COVID-19 high-prevalent countries (75th QR, coefficient estimates [β] = -0.0038, 95% confidence interval: -0.0066 to -0.0010). By contrast, in medium and high transmission severity countries, those with longer duration of imposing bans on regions showed no suppressing effects but significantly higher COVID-19 incidence (OLS regression, β = 0.0028, 95% CI: 0.0009-0.0047; 75th QR, β = 0.0039, 95% CI: 0.0014-0.0063). No other significant results were found. CONCLUSION From the long-term perspective, inbound quarantine was effective in mitigating severe epidemics. However, in countries with medium or high COVID-19 prevalence, our findings of ban on regions highlighted its ineffectiveness in the long-term epidemic progression.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhiyao Li
- Department of Medical Statistics and Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510080, PR China; Department of Health Statistics and Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Collaborative Innovation Center of Reverse Microbial Etiology, Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan, 030001, PR China
| | - Boran Yang
- Department of Health Statistics and Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Collaborative Innovation Center of Reverse Microbial Etiology, Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan, 030001, PR China
| | - Jiale Wang
- Department of Health Statistics and Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Collaborative Innovation Center of Reverse Microbial Etiology, Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan, 030001, PR China
| | - Yanchao Wen
- Department of Health Statistics and Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Collaborative Innovation Center of Reverse Microbial Etiology, Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan, 030001, PR China
| | - Jianguo Xu
- State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, 102206, PR China; Institute of Public Health, Nankai University, Tianjing, 300350, PR China
| | - Li Ling
- Department of Medical Statistics and Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510080, PR China; Clinical research design division, Clinical research center, Sun Yat-sen Memorial Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510080, PR China.
| | - Tong Wang
- Department of Health Statistics and Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Collaborative Innovation Center of Reverse Microbial Etiology, Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan, 030001, PR China; Shanxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Major Infectious Disease Pandemic Response, Taiyuan, 030001, PR China.
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17
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Funke M, Ho TK, Tsang A. Containment measures during the COVID pandemic: The role of non-pharmaceutical health policies. JOURNAL OF POLICY MODELING 2023; 45:90-102. [PMID: 36532102 PMCID: PMC9743694 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2022.12.001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/12/2022] [Revised: 09/27/2022] [Accepted: 10/09/2022] [Indexed: 05/27/2023]
Abstract
Many countries have imposed a set of non-pharmaceutical health policy interventions in an effort to slow the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. The objective of this paper is to examine the effects of the interventions, drawing on evidence from the OECD countries. A special feature here is the mechanism that underlies the impact of the containment policies. To this end, a causal mediation analysis decomposing the total effect into a direct and an indirect effect is conducted. The key finding is a dual cause-effect channel. On the one hand, there is a direct effect of the non-pharmaceutical interventions on the various health variables. Beyond this, a quantitatively dominant indirect impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions operating via voluntary changes in social distancing is shown.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michael Funke
- Hamburg University, Department of Economics, Germany
- Tallinn University of Technology, Department of Economics and Finance, Estonia
| | - Tai-Kuang Ho
- National Taiwan University, Department of Economics, Taiwan
| | - Andrew Tsang
- ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office - AMRO, Singapore
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18
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Jugl M. Administrative characteristics and timing of governments' crisis responses: A global study of early reactions to COVID-19. PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION 2022; 101:PADM12889. [PMID: 36713052 PMCID: PMC9874593 DOI: 10.1111/padm.12889] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/22/2022] [Revised: 09/06/2022] [Accepted: 10/14/2022] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
In a crisis, fast reaction is key. But what can public administration tell us about this? This study develops a theoretical framework explaining how administrative characteristics, including fragmentation, capacities, legacies and learning, affect governments' response timing. The COVID-19 pandemic is exploited as a unique empirical setting to test this framework and its scope conditions. Region fixed-effects models and survival analysis of partly hand collected data for more than 150 national governments confirm some limited predictive power of administrative structures and traditions: Especially in developing countries, governments with a separate ministry of health adopted binding containment measures faster. Countries with hierarchical administrative traditions, for example, socialist, adopted some interventions like school closures faster than more liberal traditions, for example, Anglo-American. These characteristics increase threat perception and availability of a response, respectively. Results also suggest that intracrisis and intercrisis learning supply governments with response options. The study advances comparative public administration and crisis research.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marlene Jugl
- Department of Social and Political SciencesBocconi UniversityMilanItaly
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19
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Bschir K, Lohse S. Pandemics, policy, and pluralism: A Feyerabend-inspired perspective on COVID-19. SYNTHESE 2022; 200:441. [PMID: 36320863 PMCID: PMC9607765 DOI: 10.1007/s11229-022-03923-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/13/2022] [Accepted: 10/03/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
We analyse insufficient epistemic pluralism and associated problems in science-based policy advice during the COVID-19 pandemic drawing on specific arguments in Paul Feyerabend's philosophy. Our goal is twofold: to deepen our understanding of the epistemic shortcomings in science-based policy during the pandemic, and to assess the merits and problems of Feyerabend's arguments for epistemic pluralism as well as their relevance for policy-making. We discuss opportunities and challenges of integrating a plurality of viewpoints from within and outside science into policy advice thus contributing to discussions about normative issues concerning evidence and expertise in policy-making.
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Affiliation(s)
- Karim Bschir
- University of St. Gallen, St. Gallen, Switzerland
| | - Simon Lohse
- Institute for Science in Society, Radboud University, Nijmegen, The Netherlands
- Centre for Ethics and Law in the Life Sciences, Leibniz University Hannover, Hannover, Germany
- African Centre for Epistemology and Philosophy of Science, University of Johannesburg, Johannesburg, South Africa
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20
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Yanit M, Shi K, Wan F, Gao F. Interaction between Health and Financial Status on Coping Behaviors during the COVID-19 Pandemic. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2022; 19:13498. [PMID: 36294080 PMCID: PMC9603478 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph192013498] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/29/2022] [Revised: 09/24/2022] [Accepted: 10/09/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The year 2022 started with protests against COVID-19 restrictions throughout North America. These events manifest the fact that some segments of the population are not compliant with the preventive measures of COVID-19, and the reasons of the disobedience against public health regulation remain unclear. The current paper examined the joint effect of financial and health status on people's likelihood of pursuing active coping efforts (i.e., following preventive measures) and giving up coping with the COVID-19 pandemic. METHOD We conducted a large-scale survey study in China (N = 3834) in May 2020. RESULTS Our results showed that people with low financial status were less likely to manifest active coping behavior and more likely to give up coping with the pandemic. People's self-confidence in coping with the pandemic mediated this effect. We showed that one's health status could interact with their financial status in a way that healthy people with low financial status would have less confidence in their coping abilities and thus become less likely to pursue active coping efforts and more likely to give up coping with the pandemic. CONCLUSIONS Our results call for policymakers to find more effective solutions for noncompliant groups so that they can abide by the general guidelines in the COVID-19 context and other social crises that may emerge in the future. We suggest that governments should concentrate their support efforts on healthy populations of low financial segments to prevent COVID-19 and other infectious diseases in the future from spreading further.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mehmet Yanit
- Asper School of Business, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB R3T 5V4, Canada
| | - Kan Shi
- The Institute of Wenzhou Development Model Research, Wenzhou University, Wenzhou 325035, China
| | - Fang Wan
- Asper School of Business, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB R3T 5V4, Canada
| | - Fei Gao
- Marketing Department, Bentley University, Waltham, MA 02452, USA
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21
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Gisselquist RM, Vaccaro A. COVID-19 and the state: Exploring a puzzling relationship in the early stages of the pandemic. JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT 2022; 35:JID3702. [PMID: 36714218 PMCID: PMC9874542 DOI: 10.1002/jid.3702] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/25/2021] [Revised: 08/09/2022] [Accepted: 08/20/2022] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
During the first year of the Covid-19 pandemic, it was wealthier countries with stronger institutions that suffered the highest numbers of cases and fatalities. Many weaker countries were instead praised for more effective pandemic response. What explains this seeming puzzle? We re-consider these relationships in the cross-country data, drawing on measures of the state, Covid's health impact and pandemic response. In brief, our analysis suggests that, when appropriate additional factors are taken into account, the expected relationship between state effectiveness and pandemic health outcomes in fact is clear. We also offer insight into how different dimensions of the state influence policy and outcomes and how particular countries compare with others.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rachel M. Gisselquist
- World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU‐WIDER)United Nations UniversityHelsinkiFinland
| | - Andrea Vaccaro
- World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU‐WIDER)United Nations UniversityHelsinkiFinland
- Department of EconomicsUniversity of InsubriaVareseItaly
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22
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Klement RJ, Walach H. Is the Network of World Economic Forum Young Global Leaders Associated With COVID-19 Non-Pharmaceutical Intervention Severity? Cureus 2022; 14:e29990. [PMID: 36381709 PMCID: PMC9636891 DOI: 10.7759/cureus.29990] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 10/06/2022] [Indexed: 11/05/2022] Open
Abstract
Background TheWorld Economic Forum (WEF) has spawned a global network of elites called Young Global Leaders (YGLs) with significant influence on large corporations, politics, academia, and media. This article scrutinizes the idea that through this network, the WEF had a significant influence on the scale and scope of the non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) implemented in response to the COVID-19 crisis. We tested for associations between the country-level distribution of YGLs and the intensity and duration of the implemented NPIs summarized by the Government Response Severity Index (GRSI). Materials and methods The number and category of YGLs per country was extracted from the WEF website. We also extracted the maximum and median GRSI values for three time periods: (i) the beginning of the first wave of the pandemic (March 1, 2020, to April 30, 2020), (ii) the height of the second wave in Europe (December 1, 2020, to January 31, 2021), and (iii) the approximate first year (March 1, 2020, to January 31, 2021). Being a precondition for causality, any association between the total or category-specific number of YGLs and the GRSI values in each time period was evaluated using Spearman's ρ correlation coefficients and polynomial regression, respectively. Results There was a highly significant positive correlation between the total number of YGLs in a country and the median (ρ = 0.36, p = 2.5×10-7) and maximum (ρ = 0.34, p = 1.6×10-6) GRSI during the second wave of the pandemic, but not during the first wave. The total number of YGLs was also a significant predictor of higher median GRSI during the second wave of the pandemic in the best-fitting (four-degree) polynomial regression model (p<0.01); additional significant and positive predictor in this model was a country's location within Europe or South America, respectively (p<0.01). Investigating an influence-weighted number of YGLs in business, politics, and civic society separately yielded no significant associations with NPI severity for any of the three time periods. Conclusions As there were significant correlations during the second, but not the first wave of the pandemic, we conclude that the WEF might not have been the origin of but rather an echo-chamber or amplifier for certain opinions and strategies that were formed and implemented during or before the first months of the COVID-19 crisis. Future qualitative studies may reveal putative causal mechanisms underlying our observed correlations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rainer J Klement
- Department of Radiation Oncology, Leopoldina Hospital Schweinfurt, Schweinfurt, DEU
| | - Harald Walach
- Research and Development, Change Health Science Institute, Berlin, DEU
- Next Society Institute, Kazimieras Simonavicius University, Vilnius, LTU
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23
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The value conflict between freedom and security: Explaining the variation of COVID-19 policies in democracies and autocracies. PLoS One 2022; 17:e0274270. [PMID: 36083998 PMCID: PMC9462556 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0274270] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/24/2022] [Accepted: 08/24/2022] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
In the name of health security, individual freedoms were constrained in an unprecedented way in many countries, democratic or authoritarian, all over the world during the COVID-19 pandemic. Yet the constraints have not been consistent across countries, which motivates this paper to examine the relevance of value preferences towards freedom or security in the society for COVID-19 policies. Based on data for 40 democratic and authoritarian countries, the analyses show that the variation in the stringency of COVID-19 policies can be explained by value preferences of the population only in autocracies. In democracies, however, we do not find such a relationship. Governments in democratic political systems, we argue, are responsive to their constitutions and face prosecution by the judiciary if they violate the law or provisions of the constitution, limiting their capacity to implement strong COVID-19 policies. Nevertheless, their COVID-19 policies restricted citizens’ freedoms and liberties, which means that these policies were rather not responsive to citizens’ preferences for freedom, democratic rights and liberties. By highlighting how autocracies respond to their citizens’ value preferences for security, this paper contributes to a better understanding of how autocracies might gain legitimacy in times of crises.
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24
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Solomon H, Thea DM, Galea S, Sabin LL, Lucey DR, Hamer DH. Adherence to and enforcement of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) for COVID-19 prevention in Nigeria, Rwanda, and Zambia: A mixed-methods analysis. PLOS GLOBAL PUBLIC HEALTH 2022; 2:e0000389. [PMID: 36962721 PMCID: PMC10022265 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0000389] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/28/2022] [Accepted: 08/01/2022] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION In the early parts of the COVID-19 pandemic, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were implemented worldwide, including in sub-Saharan Africa, to prevent and control SARS-CoV-2 transmission. This mixed-methods study examines adherence to and enforcement of NPIs implemented to curb COVID-19 in Nigeria, Rwanda, and Zambia, leading up to the 10,000th case of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 in each country. Additionally, we aim to evaluate the relationship between levels and changes of NPIs over time and changes in COVID-19 cases and deaths. METHODS This mixed-methods analysis utilized semi-structured interviews and a quantitative dataset constructed using multiple open data sources, including the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker. To understand potential barriers and facilitators in implementing and enforcing NPIs qualitative data were collected from those involved in the COVID-19 response and analyzed using NVivo. Quantitative results were analyzed using descriptive statistics, plots, ANOVA, and post hoc Tukey. RESULTS Individual indicator scores varied with the COVID-19 response in all three countries. Nigeria had sustained levels of strict measures for containment and closure NPIs, while in Rwanda there was substantial variation in NPI score as it transitioned through the different case windows for the same measures. Zambia implemented moderate stringency throughout the pandemic using gathering restrictions and business/school closure measures but maintained low levels of strictness for other containment and closure measures. Rwanda had far more consistent and stringent measures compared to Nigeria and Zambia. Rwanda's success in implementing COVID-related measures was partly due to strong enforcement and having a population that generally follow the recommendations of their government. CONCLUSION Various forces either facilitated or hindered adherence and compliance to COVID-19 control measures. The lessons learned and recommendations gleaned through interviews with experts involved in the COVID-19 pandemic and quantitative analysis of NPI implementation can be applied to future outbreaks, epidemics, and pandemics. Recommendations include engaging communities, using a risk-based approach to implement containment and closure NPIs, and providing social and economic support to citizens during periods of lockdowns and other measures that interrupt the ability to make a living.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hiwote Solomon
- Doctor of Public Health Program, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Donald M. Thea
- Department of Global Health, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Sandro Galea
- Department of Epidemiology, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Lora L. Sabin
- Department of Global Health, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Daniel R. Lucey
- Department of Medicine, Georgetown University Medical Center, Washington, District of Columbia, United States of America
| | - Davidson H. Hamer
- Department of Global Health, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
- Department of Medicine, Boston University School of Medicine, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
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25
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Zhang J, Lim YH, Andersen ZJ, Napolitano G, Taghavi Shahri SM, So R, Plucker M, Danesh-Yazdi M, Cole-Hunter T, Therming Jørgensen J, Liu S, Bergmann M, Jayant Mehta A, H. Mortensen L, Requia W, Lange T, Loft S, Kuenzli N, Schwartz J, Amini H. Stringency of COVID-19 Containment Response Policies and Air Quality Changes: A Global Analysis across 1851 Cities. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY 2022; 56:12086-12096. [PMID: 35968717 PMCID: PMC9454244 DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.2c04303] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/16/2022] [Revised: 08/03/2022] [Accepted: 08/04/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
The COVID-19 containment response policies (CRPs) had a major impact on air quality (AQ). These CRPs have been time-varying and location-specific. So far, despite having numerous studies on the effect of COVID-19 lockdown on AQ, a knowledge gap remains on the association between stringency of CRPs and AQ changes across the world, regions, nations, and cities. Here, we show that globally across 1851 cities (each more than 300 000 people) in 149 countries, after controlling for the impacts of relevant covariates (e.g., meteorology), Sentinel-5P satellite-observed nitrogen dioxide (NO2) levels decreased by 4.9% (95% CI: 2.2, 7.6%) during lockdowns following stringent CRPs compared to pre-CRPs. The NO2 levels did not change significantly during moderate CRPs and even increased during mild CRPs by 2.3% (95% CI: 0.7, 4.0%), which was 6.8% (95% CI: 2.0, 12.0%) across Europe and Central Asia, possibly due to population avoidance of public transportation in favor of private transportation. Among 1768 cities implementing stringent CRPs, we observed the most NO2 reduction in more populated and polluted cities. Our results demonstrate that AQ improved when and where stringent COVID-19 CRPs were implemented, changed less under moderate CRPs, and even deteriorated under mild CRPs. These changes were location-, region-, and CRP-specific.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jiawei Zhang
- Department
of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, 1014 Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Youn-Hee Lim
- Department
of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, 1014 Copenhagen, Denmark
| | | | - George Napolitano
- Department
of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, 1014 Copenhagen, Denmark
| | | | - Rina So
- Department
of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, 1014 Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Maude Plucker
- Department
of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, 1014 Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Mahdieh Danesh-Yazdi
- Department
of Environmental Health, Harvard TH Chan
School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts 02115, United States
- Program
in Public Health, Department of Family, Population & Preventive
Medicine, Stony Brook University School
of Medicine, Stony Brook, New York 11794-8434, United States
| | - Thomas Cole-Hunter
- Department
of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, 1014 Copenhagen, Denmark
| | | | - Shuo Liu
- Department
of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, 1014 Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Marie Bergmann
- Department
of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, 1014 Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Amar Jayant Mehta
- Department
of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, 1014 Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Laust H. Mortensen
- Department
of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, 1014 Copenhagen, Denmark
- Methods
and Analysis, Statistics Denmark, 2100 Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Weeberb Requia
- School
of Public Policy and Government, Fundação
Getúlio Vargas, Brasilia, Distrito Federal 72125590, Brazil
| | - Theis Lange
- Department
of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, 1014 Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Steffen Loft
- Department
of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, 1014 Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Nino Kuenzli
- Swiss Tropical
and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH), Basel 4051, Switzerland
- University
of Basel, Basel 4001, Switzerland
| | - Joel Schwartz
- Department
of Environmental Health, Harvard TH Chan
School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts 02115, United States
| | - Heresh Amini
- Department
of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, 1014 Copenhagen, Denmark
- Department
of Environmental Health, Harvard TH Chan
School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts 02115, United States
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26
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Gill B, Kehler T, Schneider M. Is Covid-19 a dread risk? The death toll of the pandemic year 2020 in long-term and transnational perspective. FUTURES 2022; 142:103017. [PMID: 35967763 PMCID: PMC9364948 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2022.103017] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/25/2021] [Revised: 07/16/2022] [Accepted: 07/29/2022] [Indexed: 05/07/2023]
Abstract
"Dread risks" are threats that can have catastrophic consequences. To analyse this issue we use excess mortality and corresponding life years lost as simple measures of the severity of pandemic events. As such, they are more robust than figures from models and testing procedures that usually inform public responses. We analyse data from OECD countries that are already fully available for the whole of 2020. To assess the severity of the pandemic, we compare with historical demographic events since 1880. Results show that reports of high excess mortality during peak periods and local outbreaks should not be taken as representative. Six countries saw a somewhat more increased percentage of life years lost (over 7%), nine countries show mild figures (0-7%), while seven countries had life year gains of up to 7%. So, by historical standards, Covid-19 is worse than regular flu, but a far cry from the Spanish Flu, which has become the predominant frame of reference for the current pandemic. Even though the demographic impact is modest, psychological aspects of the pandemic can still lead to transformative futures, as the reactions of East Asian societies to SARS I in 2003 showed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bernhard Gill
- Ludwig-Maximilians-Universitaet Muenchen, Institut fuer Soziologie, Konradstrasse 6, D-80801 Muenchen, Germany
| | - Theresa Kehler
- Ludwig-Maximilians-Universitaet Muenchen, Institut fuer Soziologie, Konradstrasse 6, D-80801 Muenchen, Germany
| | - Michael Schneider
- Ludwig-Maximilians-Universitaet Muenchen, Institut fuer Soziologie, Konradstrasse 6, D-80801 Muenchen, Germany
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27
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Antoci A, Sabatini F, Sacco PL, Sodini M. Experts vs. policymakers in the COVID-19 policy response. JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR & ORGANIZATION 2022; 201:22-39. [PMID: 35910457 PMCID: PMC9308880 DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2022.06.031] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/26/2021] [Revised: 05/14/2022] [Accepted: 06/25/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
We build an evolutionary game-theoretic model of the interaction between policymakers and experts in shaping the policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Players' decisions concern two alternative strategies of pandemic management: a "hard" approach, enforcing potentially unpopular measures such as strict confinement orders, and a "soft" approach, based upon voluntary and short-lived social distancing. Policymakers' decisions may also rely upon expert advice. Unlike experts, policymakers are sensitive to a public consensus incentive that makes lifting restrictions as soon as possible especially desirable. This incentive may conflict with the overall goal of mitigating the effects of the pandemic, leading to a typical policy dilemma. We show that the selection of strategies may be path-dependent, as their initial distribution is a crucial driver of players' choices. Contingent on cultural factors and the epidemiological conditions, steady states in which both types of players unanimously endorse the strict strategy can coexist with others where experts and policymakers agree on the soft strategy, depending on the initial conditions. The model can also lead to attractive asymmetric equilibria where experts and policymakers endorse different strategies, or to cyclical dynamics where the shares of adoption of strategies oscillate indefinitely around a mixed strategy equilibrium. This multiplicity of equilibria can explain the coexistence of contrasting pandemic countermeasures observed across countries in the first wave of the outbreak. Our results suggest that cross-country differences in the COVID-19 policy response need not be the effect of poor decision making. Instead, they can endogenously result from the interplay between policymakers and experts incentives under the local social, cultural and epidemiological conditions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Angelo Antoci
- University of Sassari, Department of Economics and Management, Sassari, Italy
| | | | - Pier Luigi Sacco
- DiSFiPEQ, University of Chieti-Pescara, Pescara, Italy
- metaLAB (at) Harvard, Cambridge, MA, USA
| | - Mauro Sodini
- University of Naples "Federico II", Department of Law and Economics, Naples, Italy
- Department of Finance, Faculty of Economics, Technical University of Ostrava, Ostrava, Czech Republic
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28
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Cao Q, Heydari B. Micro-level social structures and the success of COVID-19 national policies. NATURE COMPUTATIONAL SCIENCE 2022; 2:595-604. [PMID: 38177475 DOI: 10.1038/s43588-022-00314-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/30/2021] [Accepted: 08/05/2022] [Indexed: 01/06/2024]
Abstract
Similar policies in response to the COVID-19 pandemic have resulted in different success rates. Although many factors are responsible for the variances in policy success, our study shows that the micro-level structure of person-to-person interactions-measured by the average household size and in-person social contact rate-can be an important explanatory factor. To create an explainable model, we propose a network transformation algorithm to create a simple and computationally efficient scaled network based on these micro-level parameters, as well as incorporate national-level policy data in the network dynamic for SEIR simulations. The model was validated during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, which demonstrated that it can reproduce the dynamic ordinal ranking and trend of infected cases of various European countries that are sufficiently similar in terms of some socio-cultural factors. We also performed several counterfactual analyses to illustrate how policy-based scenario analysis can be performed rapidly and easily with these explainable models.
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Affiliation(s)
- Qingtao Cao
- Northeastern University, College of Engineering, Boston, MA, USA.
- Multi-Agent Intelligent Complex Systems (MAGICS) Lab, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA.
| | - Babak Heydari
- Northeastern University, College of Engineering, Boston, MA, USA.
- Multi-Agent Intelligent Complex Systems (MAGICS) Lab, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA.
- Network Science Institute, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA.
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29
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Wismans A, van der Zwan P, Wennberg K, Franken I, Mukerjee J, Baptista R, Marín JB, Burke A, Dejardin M, Janssen F, Letina S, Millán JM, Santarelli E, Torrès O, Thurik R. Face mask use during the COVID-19 pandemic: how risk perception, experience with COVID-19, and attitude towards government interact with country-wide policy stringency. BMC Public Health 2022; 22:1622. [PMID: 36028876 PMCID: PMC9412789 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-022-13632-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/28/2022] [Accepted: 06/09/2022] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND During the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, governments imposed numerous regulations to protect public health, particularly the (mandatory) use of face masks. However, the appropriateness and effectiveness of face mask regulations have been widely discussed, as is apparent from the divergent measures taken across and within countries over time, including mandating, recommending, and discouraging their use. In this study, we analyse how country-level policy stringency and individual-level predictors associate with face mask use during the early stages of the global COVID-19 pandemic. METHOD First, we study how (self and other-related) risk perception, (direct and indirect) experience with COVID-19, attitude towards government and policy stringency shape face mask use. Second, we study whether there is an interaction between policy stringency and the individual-level variables. We conduct multilevel analyses exploiting variation in face mask regulations across countries and using data from approximately 7000 students collected in the beginning of the pandemic (weeks 17 through 19, 2020). RESULTS We show that policy stringency is strongly positively associated with face mask use. We find a positive association between self-related risk perception and mask use, but no relationship of mask use with experience with COVID-19 and attitudes towards government. However, in the interaction analyses, we find that government trust and perceived clarity of communication moderate the link between stringency and mask use, with positive government perceptions relating to higher use in countries with regulations and to lower use in countries without regulations. CONCLUSIONS We highlight that those countries that aim for widespread use of face masks should set strict measures, stress self-related risks of COVID-19, and use clear communication.
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Affiliation(s)
- Annelot Wismans
- Department of Applied Economics, Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam, PO Box 1738, 3000DR, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
- The Erasmus University Rotterdam Institute for Behavior and Biology (EURIBEB), P.O. Box 1738, 3000DR, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
| | - Peter van der Zwan
- Department of Business Studies, Institute of Tax Law and Economics, Leiden Law School, Leiden University, 2311ES, Leiden, The Netherlands
| | - Karl Wennberg
- Institute for Analytical Sociology, Linköping University, SE-601 74, Norrköping, Sweden
- Stockholm School of Economics, PO Box 6501, SE-113 83, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Ingmar Franken
- The Erasmus University Rotterdam Institute for Behavior and Biology (EURIBEB), P.O. Box 1738, 3000DR, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
- Department of Psychology, Education & Child Studies, Erasmus University Rotterdam, PO Box 1738, 3000DR, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Jinia Mukerjee
- Montpellier Business School, CEDEX 4, 2300 Avenue des Moulins, 34080, Montpellier, France
| | - Rui Baptista
- CEG-IST, Instituto Superior Técnico, University of Lisbon, 1049-001, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Jorge Barrientos Marín
- Department of Economics, University of Antioquia, PO Box 1228, Calle 70 52-21, Medellín, Colombia
| | - Andrew Burke
- Trinity Business School, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin 2, D02 H308, Ireland
| | - Marcus Dejardin
- Université catholique de Louvain, B-1348, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
- Université de Namur, B-5000, Namur, Belgium
| | - Frank Janssen
- Université catholique de Louvain, B-1348, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
| | - Srebrenka Letina
- Institute for Analytical Sociology, Linköping University, SE-601 74, Norrköping, Sweden
- University of Glasgow, Glasgow, G12 8QQ, UK
| | | | - Enrico Santarelli
- Department of Economics, University of Bologna, 40126, Bologna, Italy
| | - Olivier Torrès
- Montpellier Business School, CEDEX 4, 2300 Avenue des Moulins, 34080, Montpellier, France
- University of Montpellier, 34000, Montpellier, France
| | - Roy Thurik
- Department of Applied Economics, Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam, PO Box 1738, 3000DR, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
- The Erasmus University Rotterdam Institute for Behavior and Biology (EURIBEB), P.O. Box 1738, 3000DR, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
- Montpellier Business School, CEDEX 4, 2300 Avenue des Moulins, 34080, Montpellier, France
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30
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Culture and COVID-19-related mortality: a cross-sectional study of 50 countries. J Public Health Policy 2022; 43:413-430. [PMID: 35995942 PMCID: PMC9395903 DOI: 10.1057/s41271-022-00363-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 07/26/2022] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
Abstract
Using a cross-sectional sample of 50 countries we investigate the influence of Hofstede’s six-dimensions of culture on COVID-19 related mortality. A multivariable regression model was fitted that controls for health-related, economic- and policy-related variables that have been found to be associated with mortality. We included the percentage of population aged 65 and above, the prevalence of relevant co-morbidities, and tobacco use as health-related variables. Economic variables were GDP, and the connectedness of a country. As policy variables, the Oxford Stringency Index as well as stringency speed, and the Global Health Security Index were used. We also describe the importance of the variables by means of a random forest model. The results suggest that individualistic societies are associated with lower COVID-19-related mortality rates. This finding contradicts previous studies that supported the popular narrative that collectivistic societies with an obedient population are better positioned to manage the pandemic.
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31
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Huisman JS, Scire J, Angst DC, Li J, Neher RA, Maathuis MH, Bonhoeffer S, Stadler T. Estimation and worldwide monitoring of the effective reproductive number of SARS-CoV-2. eLife 2022; 11:71345. [PMID: 35938911 DOI: 10.1101/2020.11.26.20239368] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/17/2021] [Accepted: 07/01/2022] [Indexed: 05/28/2023] Open
Abstract
The effective reproductive number Re is a key indicator of the growth of an epidemic. Since the start of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, many methods and online dashboards have sprung up to monitor this number through time. However, these methods are not always thoroughly tested, correctly placed in time, or are overly confident during high incidence periods. Here, we present a method for timely estimation of Re, applied to COVID-19 epidemic data from 170 countries. We thoroughly evaluate the method on simulated data, and present an intuitive web interface for interactive data exploration. We show that, in early 2020, in the majority of countries the estimated Re dropped below 1 only after the introduction of major non-pharmaceutical interventions. For Europe the implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions was broadly associated with reductions in the estimated Re. Globally though, relaxing non-pharmaceutical interventions had more varied effects on subsequent Re estimates. Our framework is useful to inform governments and the general public on the status of epidemics in their country, and is used as the official source of Re estimates for SARS-CoV-2 in Switzerland. It further allows detailed comparison between countries and in relation to covariates such as implemented public health policies, mobility, behaviour, or weather data.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jana S Huisman
- Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich, Switzerland
- Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics, Lausanne, Switzerland
- Department of Biosystems Science and Engineering, ETH Zurich, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Jérémie Scire
- Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics, Lausanne, Switzerland
- Department of Biosystems Science and Engineering, ETH Zurich, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Daniel C Angst
- Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Jinzhou Li
- Department of Mathematics, ETH Zurich, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Richard A Neher
- Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics, Lausanne, Switzerland
- Biozentrum, University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Marloes H Maathuis
- Department of Mathematics, ETH Zurich, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Sebastian Bonhoeffer
- Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Tanja Stadler
- Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics, Lausanne, Switzerland
- Department of Biosystems Science and Engineering, ETH Zurich, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Basel, Switzerland
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32
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Huisman JS, Scire J, Angst DC, Li J, Neher RA, Maathuis MH, Bonhoeffer S, Stadler T. Estimation and worldwide monitoring of the effective reproductive number of SARS-CoV-2. eLife 2022; 11:e71345. [PMID: 35938911 PMCID: PMC9467515 DOI: 10.7554/elife.71345] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/17/2021] [Accepted: 07/01/2022] [Indexed: 11/20/2022] Open
Abstract
The effective reproductive number Re is a key indicator of the growth of an epidemic. Since the start of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, many methods and online dashboards have sprung up to monitor this number through time. However, these methods are not always thoroughly tested, correctly placed in time, or are overly confident during high incidence periods. Here, we present a method for timely estimation of Re, applied to COVID-19 epidemic data from 170 countries. We thoroughly evaluate the method on simulated data, and present an intuitive web interface for interactive data exploration. We show that, in early 2020, in the majority of countries the estimated Re dropped below 1 only after the introduction of major non-pharmaceutical interventions. For Europe the implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions was broadly associated with reductions in the estimated Re. Globally though, relaxing non-pharmaceutical interventions had more varied effects on subsequent Re estimates. Our framework is useful to inform governments and the general public on the status of epidemics in their country, and is used as the official source of Re estimates for SARS-CoV-2 in Switzerland. It further allows detailed comparison between countries and in relation to covariates such as implemented public health policies, mobility, behaviour, or weather data.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jana S Huisman
- Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, Swiss Federal Institute of TechnologyZurichSwitzerland
- Swiss Institute of BioinformaticsLausanneSwitzerland
- Department of Biosystems Science and Engineering, ETH Zurich, Swiss Federal Institute of TechnologyBaselSwitzerland
| | - Jérémie Scire
- Swiss Institute of BioinformaticsLausanneSwitzerland
- Department of Biosystems Science and Engineering, ETH Zurich, Swiss Federal Institute of TechnologyBaselSwitzerland
| | - Daniel C Angst
- Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, Swiss Federal Institute of TechnologyZurichSwitzerland
| | - Jinzhou Li
- Department of Mathematics, ETH Zurich, Swiss Federal Institute of TechnologyZurichSwitzerland
| | - Richard A Neher
- Swiss Institute of BioinformaticsLausanneSwitzerland
- Biozentrum, University of BaselBaselSwitzerland
| | - Marloes H Maathuis
- Department of Mathematics, ETH Zurich, Swiss Federal Institute of TechnologyZurichSwitzerland
| | - Sebastian Bonhoeffer
- Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, Swiss Federal Institute of TechnologyZurichSwitzerland
| | - Tanja Stadler
- Swiss Institute of BioinformaticsLausanneSwitzerland
- Department of Biosystems Science and Engineering, ETH Zurich, Swiss Federal Institute of TechnologyBaselSwitzerland
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33
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Cepaluni G, Dorsch MT, Kovarek D. Mobility and Policy Responses During the COVID-19 Pandemic in 2020. Int J Public Health 2022; 67:1604663. [PMID: 35990190 PMCID: PMC9389530 DOI: 10.3389/ijph.2022.1604663] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/01/2021] [Accepted: 06/30/2022] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Objective: This paper quantitatively explores determinants of governments’ non-pharmaceutical policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. Our focus is on the extent to which geographic mobility affected the stringency of governmental policy responses. Methods: Using cross-country, daily frequency data on geographic mobility and COVID-19 policy stringency during 2020, we investigate some of the determinants of policy responses to COVID-19. In order to causally identify the effect of geographic mobility on policy stringency, we pursue an instrumental variable strategy that exploits climate data to identify arguably exogenous variation in geographic mobility. Results: We find that societies that are more geographically mobile have governmental policy responses that are less stringent. Examining disaggregated mobility data, we show that the negative relation between geographic mobility and policy stringency is the stronger for commercially-oriented movements than for geographic movements that relate to civil society. Conclusion: The results suggest that policy-makers are more willing to trade-off public health for economic concerns relative to other civil concerns.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gabriel Cepaluni
- Department of International Relations, São Paulo State University (UNESP), Franca, Brazil
| | - Michael T. Dorsch
- Department of Public Policy, Central European University (CEU), Vienna, Austria
- Democracy Institute, Central European University (CEU), Budapest, Hungary
- *Correspondence: Michael T. Dorsch,
| | - Daniel Kovarek
- Department of Political Science, Central European University (CEU), Vienna, Austria
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34
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Jain V, Clarke J, Beaney T. Association between democratic governance and excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic: an observational study. J Epidemiol Community Health 2022; 76:jech-2022-218920. [PMID: 35768188 PMCID: PMC9271843 DOI: 10.1136/jech-2022-218920] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/01/2022] [Accepted: 06/19/2022] [Indexed: 11/04/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Excess mortality has been used to assess the overall health impact of COVID-19 across countries. Democracies aim to build trust in government and enable checks and balances on decision making, which may be useful in a pandemic. But during the pandemic, they have been criticised as being hesitant to enforce restrictive public health measures. METHODS Through linking open-access datasets we constructed univariable and multivariable linear regression models investigating the association between country V-Dem Liberal Democracy Indices (LDI), representing strength of democratic governance and excess mortality rates, from January 2020 to September 2021. We adjusted for several important confounders and conducted a range of sensitivity analyses to assess the robustness of our findings. RESULTS Across 78 countries, 4.19 million deaths million excess deaths were recorded. On multivariable regression, a one-point increase in V-Dem LDI was associated with a decrease in excess mortality of 2.18 per 100 000 (p=0.004), after accounting for age, gender, wealth and universal health coverage. This association was only partially attenuated by COVID-19 vaccination rates and remained robust in all sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS Democratic governance may have played an important role in mitigating the overall health impact of COVID-19 across countries. This study strengthens the case to broaden the scope of traditional pandemic risk assessment and discussions on preparedness.
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Affiliation(s)
- Vageesh Jain
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Jonathan Clarke
- Department of Surgery and Cancer, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Thomas Beaney
- Department of Primary Care and Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
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35
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Ge Y, Zhang WB, Wu X, Ruktanonchai CW, Liu H, Wang J, Song Y, Liu M, Yan W, Yang J, Cleary E, Qader SH, Atuhaire F, Ruktanonchai NW, Tatem AJ, Lai S. Untangling the changing impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on European COVID-19 trajectories. Nat Commun 2022; 13:3106. [PMID: 35661759 PMCID: PMC9166696 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-30897-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 47] [Impact Index Per Article: 15.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/30/2021] [Accepted: 05/24/2022] [Indexed: 12/27/2022] Open
Abstract
Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and vaccination are two fundamental approaches for mitigating the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. However, the real-world impact of NPIs versus vaccination, or a combination of both, on COVID-19 remains uncertain. To address this, we built a Bayesian inference model to assess the changing effect of NPIs and vaccination on reducing COVID-19 transmission, based on a large-scale dataset including epidemiological parameters, virus variants, vaccines, and climate factors in Europe from August 2020 to October 2021. We found that (1) the combined effect of NPIs and vaccination resulted in a 53% (95% confidence interval: 42–62%) reduction in reproduction number by October 2021, whereas NPIs and vaccination reduced the transmission by 35% and 38%, respectively; (2) compared with vaccination, the change of NPI effect was less sensitive to emerging variants; (3) the relative effect of NPIs declined 12% from May 2021 due to a lower stringency and the introduction of vaccination strategies. Our results demonstrate that NPIs were complementary to vaccination in an effort to reduce COVID-19 transmission, and the relaxation of NPIs might depend on vaccination rates, control targets, and vaccine effectiveness concerning extant and emerging variants. Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and COVID-19 vaccination have been implemented concurrently, making their relative effects difficult to measure. Here, the authors show that effects of NPIs reduced as vaccine coverage increased, but that NPIs could still be important in the context of more transmissible variants.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yong Ge
- State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China. .,College of Resources and Environment, University of Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
| | - Wen-Bin Zhang
- State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.,College of Resources and Environment, University of Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.,Lancaster Environment Center, Faculty of Science and Technology, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK
| | - Xilin Wu
- State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.,College of Resources and Environment, University of Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | | | - Haiyan Liu
- Marine Data Center, South Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai, China
| | - Jianghao Wang
- State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.,College of Resources and Environment, University of Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Yongze Song
- School of Design and the Built Environment, Curtin University, Perth, Australia
| | - Mengxiao Liu
- State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.,College of Resources and Environment, University of Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Wei Yan
- Respiratory Medicine Department, Peking University Third Hospital, Beijing, China
| | - Juan Yang
- School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China.,Shanghai Institute of Infectious Disease and Biosecurity, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Eimear Cleary
- WorldPop, School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
| | - Sarchil H Qader
- WorldPop, School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.,Natural Resources Department, College of Agricultural Engineering Sciences, University of Sulaimani; Sulaimani 334, Kurdistan Region, Sulaymaniyah, Iraq
| | - Fatumah Atuhaire
- WorldPop, School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.,School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
| | | | - Andrew J Tatem
- WorldPop, School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.
| | - Shengjie Lai
- Shanghai Institute of Infectious Disease and Biosecurity, Fudan University, Shanghai, China. .,WorldPop, School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK. .,Institute for Life Sciences, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.
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36
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Mistur EM, Givens JW, Matisoff DC. Contagious COVID-19 policies: Policy diffusion during times of crisis. THE REVIEW OF POLICY RESEARCH 2022; 40:ROPR12487. [PMID: 35942305 PMCID: PMC9347821 DOI: 10.1111/ropr.12487] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/22/2022] [Revised: 03/31/2022] [Accepted: 04/02/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
The COVID-19 crisis demanded rapid, widespread policy action. In response, nations turned to different forms of social distancing policies to reduce the spread of the virus. These policies were implemented globally, proving as contagious as the virus they are meant to prevent. Yet, variation in their implementation invites questions as to how and why countries adopt social distancing policies, and whether the causal mechanisms driving these policy adoptions are based on internal resources and problem conditions or other external factors such as conditions in other countries. We leverage daily changes in international social distancing policies to understand the impacts of problem characteristics, institutional and economic context, and peer effects on social distancing policy adoption. Using fixed-effects models on an international panel of daily data from 2020, we find that peer effects, particularly mimicry of geographic neighbors, political peers, and language agnates drive policy diffusion and shape countries' policy choices.
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Affiliation(s)
- Evan M. Mistur
- Department of Public AffairsUniversity of Texas at ArlingtonArlingtonTexasUSA
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37
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Feng Q, Wu GL, Yuan M, Zhou S. Save lives or save livelihoods? A cross-country analysis of COVID-19 pandemic and economic growth. JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR & ORGANIZATION 2022; 197:221-256. [PMID: 35287307 PMCID: PMC8907024 DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2022.02.027] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/04/2021] [Revised: 02/19/2022] [Accepted: 02/28/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
This paper studies whether containing COVID-19 pandemic by stringent strategies deteriorates or saves economic growth. Since there are country-specific factors that could affect both economic growth and deaths due to COVID-19, we first start with a cross-country analysis on identifying risk and protective factors on the COVID-19 deaths using large across-country variation. Using data on 100 countries from 3 January to 27 November 2020 and taking into account the possibility of underreporting, we find that for deaths per million population, GDP per capita, population density, and income inequality are the three most important risk factors; government effectiveness, temperature, and hospital beds are the three most important protective factors. Second, inspired by the stochastic frontier literature, we construct a measure of pandemic containment effectiveness (PCE) after controlling for country-specific factors and rank countries by their PCE scores for deaths. Finally, by linking the PCE score with GDP growth data in Quarters 2 and 3 of 2020, we find that PCE is positively associated with economic growth in major economies. Countries with average PCE scores, such as Malaysia, would gain more GDP growth by 3.47 percentage points if they could improve their PCE scores for deaths to South Korea's level in Q2 of 2020. Therefore, there is not a trade-off between lives and livelihood facing by governments. Instead, to save economy, it is important to contain the pandemic first. Our conclusion is also mainly valid for infections due to COVID-19.
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Affiliation(s)
- Qu Feng
- Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, Nanyang Technological University, 48 Nanyang Ave, 639818, Singapore
| | - Guiying Laura Wu
- Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, Nanyang Technological University, 48 Nanyang Ave, 639818, Singapore
| | - Mengying Yuan
- Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, Nanyang Technological University, 48 Nanyang Ave, 639818, Singapore
| | - Shihao Zhou
- Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, Nanyang Technological University, 48 Nanyang Ave, 639818, Singapore
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38
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CHARRON NICHOLAS, LAPUENTE VICTOR, RODRÍGUEZ‐POSE ANDRÉS. Uncooperative society, uncooperative politics or both? Trust, polarization, populism and COVID-19 deaths across European regions. EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF POLITICAL RESEARCH 2022; 62:EJPR12529. [PMID: 35600256 PMCID: PMC9111141 DOI: 10.1111/1475-6765.12529] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/09/2020] [Revised: 12/23/2021] [Accepted: 01/29/2022] [Indexed: 05/13/2023]
Abstract
Why have some territories performed better than others in the fight against COVID-19? This paper uses a novel dataset on excess mortality, trust and political polarization for 165 European regions to explore the role of social and political divisions in the remarkable regional differences in excess mortality during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. First, we investigate whether regions characterized by a low social and political trust witnessed a higher excess mortality. Second, we argue that it is not only levels, but also polarization in trust among citizens - in particular, between government supporters and non-supporters - that matters for understanding why people in some regions have adopted more pro-healthy behaviour. Third, we explore the partisan make-up of regional parliaments and the relationship between political division - or what we refer to as 'uncooperative politics'. We hypothesize that the ideological positioning - in particular those that lean more populist - and ideological polarization among political parties is also linked to higher mortality. Accounting for a host of potential confounders, we find robust support that regions with lower levels of both social and political trust are associated with higher excess mortality, along with citizen polarization in institutional trust in some models. On the ideological make-up of regional parliaments, we find that, ceteris paribus, those that lean more 'tan' on the 'GAL-TAN' spectrum yielded higher excess mortality. Moreover, although we find limited evidence of elite polarization driving excess deaths on the left-right or GAL-TAN spectrums, partisan differences on the attitudes towards the European Union demonstrated significantly higher deaths, which we argue proxies for (anti)populism. Overall, we find that both lower citizen-level trust and populist elite-level ideological characteristics of regional parliaments are associated with higher excess mortality in European regions during the first wave of the pandemic.
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Affiliation(s)
- NICHOLAS CHARRON
- The Department of Political Science and Quality of Government InstituteUniversity of GothenburgSweden
| | - VICTOR LAPUENTE
- The Department of Political Science and Quality of Government InstituteUniversity of GothenburgSweden
- ESADE Business SchoolSpain
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39
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Mader S, Rüttenauer T. The Effects of Non-pharmaceutical Interventions on COVID-19 Mortality: A Generalized Synthetic Control Approach Across 169 Countries. Front Public Health 2022; 10:820642. [PMID: 35444988 PMCID: PMC9013850 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.820642] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/23/2021] [Accepted: 03/09/2022] [Indexed: 01/17/2023] Open
Abstract
Importance Governments have introduced non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in response to the pandemic outbreak of Coronavirus disease (COVID-19). While NPIs aim at preventing fatalities related to COVID-19, the previous literature on their efficacy has focused on infections and on data of the first half of 2020. Still, findings of early NPI studies may be subject to underreporting and missing timeliness of reporting of cases. Moreover, the low variation in treatment timing during the first wave makes identification of robust treatment effects difficult. Objective We enhance the literature on the effectiveness of NPIs with respect to the period, the number of countries, and the analytical approach. Design, Setting, and Participants To circumvent problems of reporting and treatment variation, we analyse data on daily confirmed COVID-19-related deaths per capita from Our World in Data, and on 10 different NPIs from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) for 169 countries from 1st July 2020 to 1st September 2021. To identify the causal effects of introducing NPIs on COVID-19-related fatalities, we apply the generalized synthetic control (GSC) method to each NPI, while controlling for the remaining NPIs, weather conditions, vaccinations, and NPI-residualized COVID-19 cases. This mitigates the influence of selection into treatment and allows to model flexible post-treatment trajectories. Results We do not find substantial and consistent COVID-19-related fatality-reducing effects of any NPI under investigation. We see a tentative change in the trend of COVID-19-related deaths around 30 days after strict stay-at-home rules and to a slighter extent after workplace closings have been implemented. As a proof of concept, our model is able to identify a fatality-reducing effect of COVID-19 vaccinations. Furthermore, our results are robust with respect to various crucial sensitivity checks. Conclusion Our results demonstrate that many implemented NPIs may not have exerted a significant COVID-19-related fatality-reducing effect. However, NPIs might have contributed to mitigate COVID-19-related fatalities by preventing exponential growth in deaths. Moreover, vaccinations were effective in reducing COVID-19-related deaths.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sebastian Mader
- Institute of Sociology, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- *Correspondence: Sebastian Mader
| | - Tobias Rüttenauer
- Nuffield College, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
- Tobias Rüttenauer
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40
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Carr OG, Jilani-Hyler N, Murray GR. Identifying factors related to school closures due to COVID-19 in the Middle East and North Africa region. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF EDUCATIONAL DEVELOPMENT 2022; 90:102560. [PMID: 35125638 PMCID: PMC8802155 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijedudev.2022.102560] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/14/2021] [Revised: 01/25/2022] [Accepted: 01/25/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has had devastating effects on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, and MENA states have taken dramatic steps in response. This study focuses on school closures, an intervention that all MENA states adopted, some much earlier than others. It seeks to identify policy factors related to MENA governments' decisions to close schools during the first wave of the pandemic. Results suggest external issues regarding temporal and geographic diffusion played the largest role. They also indicate that factors related to disease risk, the economy, political institutions, and women's position in society mattered as well, all of which suggest the decisions were complex.
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Affiliation(s)
- Olivia G Carr
- Education Research Alliance for New Orleans, Tulane University, USA
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41
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Endress AD. Socio-Cultural Values Are Risk Factors for COVID-19-Related Mortality. CROSS-CULTURAL RESEARCH : OFFICIAL JOURNAL OF THE SOCIETY FOR CROSS-CULTURAL RESEARCH 2022; 56:150-184. [PMID: 38603153 PMCID: PMC8841397 DOI: 10.1177/10693971211067050] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/13/2024]
Abstract
To assess whether socio-cultural values are population-level risk factors for health, I sought to predict COVID-19-related mortality between 2 weeks and 6 months after the first COVID-19-related death in a country based on values extracted from the World Values Survey for different country sets, after controlling for various confounding variables. COVID-19-related mortality was increased in countries endorsing political participation but decreased in countries with greater trust in institutions and materialistic orientations. The values were specific to COVID-19-related mortality, did not predict general health outcomes, and values predicting increased COVID-19-related mortality predicted decreased mortality from other outcomes (e.g., environmental-related mortality).
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42
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Moslehpour M, Al-Fadly A, Ehsanullah S, Chong KW, Xuyen NTM, Tan LP. Assessing Financial Risk Spillover and Panic Impact of Covid-19 on European and Vietnam Stock market. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2022; 29:28226-28240. [PMID: 34993822 PMCID: PMC8736318 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-021-18170-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/19/2021] [Accepted: 12/13/2021] [Indexed: 05/23/2023]
Abstract
This study examined the influence of tail risks on global financial markets, which aids in better understanding of the emergence of COVID-19. This study looks at the global and Vietnamese stock markets impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic to identify systemic emergencies. Risk dependent value (CoVaR) and Delta link VaR are two important tail-related risk indicators used in Conditional Bivariate Dynamic Correlation (DCC) (CoVaR). The empirical findings demonstrate that when COVID-19's worldwide spread widens, the volatility transmission of systemic risks across the global stock market and multiple exchanges shifts and becomes more relevant over time. At the time of COVID-19, the world industrial market was larger than the Vietnamese stock market, and the Vietnamese stock market posed a lesser danger to the global market. A closer examination of the link between the Vietnam value-at-risk (VaR) range index sample and the world stock index indicates a significant degree of downside risk integration in key monetary systems, particularly during the COVID-19 era. Our study findings may help regulators, politicians, and portfolio risk managers in Vietnam and worldwide during the unique moment of uncertainty created by the COVID-19 epidemic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Massoud Moslehpour
- Department of Business Administration, Asia University, 500, Lioufeng Rd., Wufeng, Taichung, 41354 Taiwan
- Department of Management, California State University, San Bernardino 5500, University Parkway, San Bernardino, CA 92407 USA
| | - Ahmad Al-Fadly
- Gulf University for Science & Technology, Mubarak Al-Abdullah, Kuwait
| | | | - Kwong Wing Chong
- School of Professional Studies, Taylor’s College, Taylor’s Lakeside Campus, No. 1 Jalan Taylor’s, 47500 Subang Jaya, Selangor Malaysia
| | - Nguyen Thi My Xuyen
- Faculty of Business Administration, Van Lang University, 69/68 Dang Thuy Tram, Ward 13, Binh Thanh Dist., Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
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43
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Cao Z, Qiu Z, Tang F, Liang S, Wang Y, Long H, Chen C, Zhang B, Zhang C, Wang Y, Tang K, Tang J, Chen J, Yang C, Xu Y, Yang Y, Xiao S, Tian D, Jiang G, Du X. Drivers and forecasts of multiple waves of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic: a systematic analysis based on an interpretable machine learning framework. Transbound Emerg Dis 2022; 69:e1584-e1594. [PMID: 35192224 DOI: 10.1111/tbed.14492] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/19/2021] [Revised: 02/20/2022] [Accepted: 02/21/2022] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
Abstract
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a global pandemic and continues to prevail with multiple rebound waves in many countries. The driving factors for the spread of COVID-19 and their quantitative contributions, especially to rebound waves, are not well studied. Multidimensional time-series data, including policy, travel, medical, socioeconomic, environmental, mutant and vaccine related data, were collected from 39 countries up to June 30, 2021, and an interpretable machine learning framework (XGBoost model with Shapley Additive explanation interpretation) was used to systematically analyze the effect of multiple factors on the spread of COVID-19, using the daily effective reproduction number as an indicator. Based on a model of the pre-vaccine era, policy-related factors were shown to be the main drivers of the spread of COVID-19, with a contribution of 60.81%. In the post-vaccine era, the contribution of policy-related factors decreased to 28.34%, accompanied with an increase in the contribution of travel-related factors, such as domestic flights, and contributions emerged for mutant-related (16.49%) and vaccine-related (7.06%) factors. For single-peak countries, the dominant ones were policy-related factors during both the rising and fading stages, with overall contributions of 33.7% and 37.7%, respectively. For double-peak countries, factors from the rebound stage contributed 45.8% and policy-related factors showed the greatest contribution in both the rebound (32.6%) and fading (25.0%) stages. For multiple-peak countries, the Delta variant, domestic flights (current month) and the daily vaccination population are the three greatest contributors (8.12%, 7.59% and 7.26%, respectively). Forecasting models to predict the rebound risk were built based on these findings, with accuracies of 0.78 and 0.81 for the pre- and post-vaccine eras, respectively. These findings quantitatively demonstrate the systematic drivers of the spread of COVID-19, and the framework proposed in this study will facilitate the targeted prevention and control of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zicheng Cao
- School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, P.R. China.,School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Shenzhen Campus of Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, 518107, P.R. China
| | - Zekai Qiu
- School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, P.R. China.,School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Shenzhen Campus of Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, 518107, P.R. China
| | - Feng Tang
- School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, P.R. China.,Foshan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Foshan, 528010, P.R. China
| | - Shiwen Liang
- School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, P.R. China.,Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Fuzhou, 350001, P.R. China
| | - Yinghan Wang
- School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, P.R. China.,Clinical research center, Second Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University, Kunming, 650033, P.R. China
| | - Haoyu Long
- School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, P.R. China.,School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Shenzhen Campus of Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, 518107, P.R. China
| | - Cai Chen
- School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, P.R. China
| | - Bing Zhang
- School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, P.R. China.,School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Shenzhen Campus of Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, 518107, P.R. China
| | - Chi Zhang
- School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, P.R. China.,School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Shenzhen Campus of Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, 518107, P.R. China
| | - Yaqi Wang
- School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, P.R. China.,School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Shenzhen Campus of Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, 518107, P.R. China
| | - Kang Tang
- School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, P.R. China.,School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Shenzhen Campus of Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, 518107, P.R. China
| | - Jing Tang
- School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, P.R. China.,School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Shenzhen Campus of Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, 518107, P.R. China
| | - Junhong Chen
- School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, P.R. China.,School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Shenzhen Campus of Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, 518107, P.R. China
| | - Chunhui Yang
- School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, P.R. China.,School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Shenzhen Campus of Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, 518107, P.R. China
| | - Yuzhe Xu
- School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, P.R. China.,School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Shenzhen Campus of Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, 518107, P.R. China
| | - Yulin Yang
- School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, P.R. China.,School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Shenzhen Campus of Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, 518107, P.R. China
| | - Shenglan Xiao
- School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, P.R. China.,School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Shenzhen Campus of Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, 518107, P.R. China
| | - Dechao Tian
- School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, P.R. China.,School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Shenzhen Campus of Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, 518107, P.R. China
| | - Guozhi Jiang
- School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, P.R. China.,School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Shenzhen Campus of Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, 518107, P.R. China
| | - Xiangjun Du
- School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, P.R. China.,School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Shenzhen Campus of Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, 518107, P.R. China.,Key Laboratory of Tropical Disease Control, Ministry of Education, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510030, P.R. China
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Abstract
This paper conducts a cost–benefit analysis of Australia’s Covid-19 lockdown strategy relative to pursuit of a mitigation strategy in March 2020. The estimated additional deaths from a mitigation strategy are 11,500 to 40,000, implying a Cost per Quality Adjusted Life Year saved by locking down of at least 11 times the generally employed figure of $100,000 for health interventions in Australia. The lockdowns do not then seem to have been justified by reference to the standard benchmark. Consideration of the information available to the Australian government in March 2020 yields a similar ratio and therefore the same conclusion that lockdown was not warranted. If Australia experiences a new outbreak, and cannot contain it without resort to a nationwide lockdown, the death toll from adopting a mitigation strategy at this point would be even less than had it done so in March 2020, due to the vaccination campaign, lessons learned since March 2020, and because the period over which the virus would then inflict casualties would now be much less than the period from March 2020. This would favour a mitigation policy even more strongly than in March 2020. This approach of assessing the savings in quality adjusted life years and comparing them to a standard benchmark figure ensures that all quality adjusted life years saved by various health interventions are treated equally, which accords with the ethical principle of equity across people.
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Affiliation(s)
- Martin Lally
- Capital Financial Consultants Ltd, 52 Friend St, Karori, Wellington, 6012, New Zealand.
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45
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Crawford FW, Jones SA, Cartter M, Dean SG, Warren JL, Li ZR, Barbieri J, Campbell J, Kenney P, Valleau T, Morozova O. Impact of close interpersonal contact on COVID-19 incidence: Evidence from 1 year of mobile device data. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2022; 8:eabi5499. [PMID: 34995121 PMCID: PMC8741180 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abi5499] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/16/2021] [Accepted: 11/17/2021] [Indexed: 05/06/2023]
Abstract
Close contact between people is the primary route for transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We quantified interpersonal contact at the population level using mobile device geolocation data. We computed the frequency of contact (within 6 feet) between people in Connecticut during February 2020 to January 2021 and aggregated counts of contact events by area of residence. When incorporated into a SEIR-type model of COVID-19 transmission, the contact rate accurately predicted COVID-19 cases in Connecticut towns. Contact in Connecticut explains the initial wave of infections during March to April, the drop in cases during June to August, local outbreaks during August to September, broad statewide resurgence during September to December, and decline in January 2021. The transmission model fits COVID-19 transmission dynamics better using the contact rate than other mobility metrics. Contact rate data can help guide social distancing and testing resource allocation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Forrest W. Crawford
- Department of Biostatistics, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA
- Department of Statistics and Data Science, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
- Yale School of Management, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Sydney A. Jones
- Epidemic Intelligence Service, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA
- Infectious Diseases Section, Connecticut Department of Public Health, Hartford, CT, USA
| | - Matthew Cartter
- Infectious Diseases Section, Connecticut Department of Public Health, Hartford, CT, USA
| | - Samantha G. Dean
- Department of Biostatistics, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Joshua L. Warren
- Department of Biostatistics, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Zehang Richard Li
- Department of Statistics, University of California, Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, USA
| | | | | | | | | | - Olga Morozova
- Program in Public Health and Department of Family, Population and Preventive Medicine, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY, USA
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Mannarini G, Posa F, Bossy T, Massemin L, Fernandez-Castanon J, Chavdarova T, Cañas P, Gupta P, Jaggi M, Hartley MA. What If…? Pandemic policy-decision-support to guide a cost-benefit-optimised, country-specific response. PLOS GLOBAL PUBLIC HEALTH 2022; 2:e0000721. [PMID: 36962770 PMCID: PMC10022143 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0000721] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/15/2021] [Accepted: 06/14/2022] [Indexed: 11/19/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND After 18 months of responding to the COVID-19 pandemic, there is still no agreement on the optimal combination of mitigation strategies. The efficacy and collateral damage of pandemic policies are dependent on constantly evolving viral epidemiology as well as the volatile distribution of socioeconomic and cultural factors. This study proposes a data-driven approach to quantify the efficacy of the type, duration, and stringency of COVID-19 mitigation policies in terms of transmission control and economic loss, personalised to individual countries. METHODS We present What If…?, a deep learning pandemic-policy-decision-support algorithm simulating pandemic scenarios to guide and evaluate policy impact in real time. It leverages a uniquely diverse live global data-stream of socioeconomic, demographic, climatic, and epidemic trends on over a year of data (04/2020-06/2021) from 116 countries. The economic damage of the policies is also evaluated on the 29 higher income countries for which data is available. The efficacy and economic damage estimates are derived from two neural networks that infer respectively the daily R-value (RE) and unemployment rate (UER). Reinforcement learning then pits these models against each other to find the optimal policies minimising both RE and UER. FINDINGS The models made high accuracy predictions of RE and UER (average mean squared errors of 0.043 [CI95: 0.042-0.044] and 4.473% [CI95: 2.619-6.326] respectively), which allow the computation of country-specific policy efficacy in terms of cost and benefit. In the 29 countries where economic information was available, the reinforcement learning agent suggested a policy mix that is predicted to outperform those implemented in reality by over 10-fold for RE reduction (0.250 versus 0.025) and at 28-fold less cost in terms of UER (1.595% versus 0.057%). CONCLUSION These results show that deep learning has the potential to guide evidence-based understanding and implementation of public health policies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Giorgio Mannarini
- Intelligent Global Health, Machine Learning and Optimization Laboratory, EPFL, Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Francesco Posa
- Intelligent Global Health, Machine Learning and Optimization Laboratory, EPFL, Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Thierry Bossy
- Intelligent Global Health, Machine Learning and Optimization Laboratory, EPFL, Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Lucas Massemin
- Intelligent Global Health, Machine Learning and Optimization Laboratory, EPFL, Lausanne, Switzerland
| | | | - Tatjana Chavdarova
- Intelligent Global Health, Machine Learning and Optimization Laboratory, EPFL, Lausanne, Switzerland
- University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States of America
| | - Pablo Cañas
- Intelligent Global Health, Machine Learning and Optimization Laboratory, EPFL, Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Prakhar Gupta
- Intelligent Global Health, Machine Learning and Optimization Laboratory, EPFL, Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Martin Jaggi
- Intelligent Global Health, Machine Learning and Optimization Laboratory, EPFL, Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Mary-Anne Hartley
- Intelligent Global Health, Machine Learning and Optimization Laboratory, EPFL, Lausanne, Switzerland
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Cassan G, Van Steenvoort M. Political regime and COVID 19 death rate: Efficient, biasing or simply different autocracies?An econometric analysis. SSM Popul Health 2021; 16:100912. [PMID: 34541281 PMCID: PMC8437830 DOI: 10.1016/j.ssmph.2021.100912] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/22/2021] [Revised: 08/31/2021] [Accepted: 08/31/2021] [Indexed: 10/26/2022] Open
Abstract
The difference in COVID 19 death rates across political regimes has caught a lot of attention. The "efficient autocracy" view suggests that autocracies may be more efficient at putting in place policies that contain COVID 19 spread. On the other hand, the "biasing autocracy" view underlines that autocracies may be under reporting their COVID 19 data. We use fixed effect panel regression methods to discriminate between the two sides of the debate. Our results present a more nuanced picture: once pre-determined characteristics of countries are accounted for, COVID 19 death rates equalize across political regimes during the first months of the pandemic, but remain largely different a year into the pandemic. This emphasizes that early differences across political regimes were mainly due to omitted variable bias, whereas later differences are likely due to data manipulation by autocracies. A year into the pandemic, we estimate that this data manipulation may have hidden approximately 400,000 deaths worldwide.
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Affiliation(s)
- Guilhem Cassan
- University of Namur, CEPR, DEFIPP, CRED and CEPREMAP, Rue de Bruxelles 61, 5000, Namur, Belgium
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48
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Segarra-Blasco A, Teruel M, Cattaruzzo S. The economic reaction to non-pharmaceutical interventions during Covid-19. ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND POLICY 2021; 72:592-608. [PMID: 34690406 PMCID: PMC8526112 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2021.10.006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/25/2021] [Revised: 09/02/2021] [Accepted: 10/17/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Policy makers have implemented a set of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to contain the spread of Covid-19 and reduce the burden on health systems. These restrictive measures have had adverse effects on economic activity; however, these negative impacts differ with respect to each country. Based on daily data, this article studies governmental economic responses to the application of NPIs for 59 countries. Furthermore, we assess if these economic responses differ according to the economic and sectoral context of the countries. By applying a counting model to the economic support intensity, our results quantify the average reaction of governments in counterbalancing the imposition of NPIs. We further re-estimate the base model by dividing the countries according to their GDP per capita, the intensity of their service sectors, and the expenditure by tourists. Our results show how each NPI implied a different level of economic support and how the structural characteristics considered were relevant to the decision-making process.
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Affiliation(s)
- Agustí Segarra-Blasco
- Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics, Research Group of Industry and Territory, and ECO-SOS, Av. Universitat, 1, 43204 Reus, Spain
| | - Mercedes Teruel
- Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics, Research Group of Industry and Territory, and ECO-SOS, Av. Universitat, 1, 43204 Reus, Spain
| | - Sebastiano Cattaruzzo
- Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics, Research Group of Industry and Territory, and ECO-SOS, Av. Universitat, 1, 43204 Reus, Spain
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49
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Birner R, Blaschke N, Bosch C, Daum T, Graf S, Güttler D, Heni J, Kariuki J, Katusiime R, Seidel A, Senon ZN, Woode G. 'We would rather die from Covid-19 than from hunger' - Exploring lockdown stringencies in five African countries. GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY 2021; 31:100571. [PMID: 34540574 PMCID: PMC8436594 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfs.2021.100571] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/01/2020] [Revised: 03/23/2021] [Accepted: 08/22/2021] [Indexed: 11/02/2022]
Abstract
Facing COVID-19, African countries were confronted with a dilemma: enacting strict lockdowns to "flatten the curve" could potentially have large effects on food security. Given this catch-22 situation, there was widespread concern that Africa would suffer most from the pandemic. Yet, emerging evidence in early 2021 showed that COVID-19 morbidity remained low, while "biblical famines" have been avoided so far. This paper explores how five African countries maneuvered around the potentially large trade-offs between public health and food security when designing their policy responses to COVID-19 based on a content analysis of 1188 newspaper articles. The findings show that food security concerns played an important role in the public policy debate and influenced the stringency of lockdowns, especially in more democratic countries.
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Affiliation(s)
- Regina Birner
- Institute of Agricultural Sciences in the Tropics (Hans-Ruthenberg-Institute), University of Hohenheim, Wollgrasweg 43, 70599, Stuttgart, Germany
| | - Nikola Blaschke
- Institute of Agricultural Sciences in the Tropics (Hans-Ruthenberg-Institute), University of Hohenheim, Wollgrasweg 43, 70599, Stuttgart, Germany
| | - Christine Bosch
- Institute of Agricultural Sciences in the Tropics (Hans-Ruthenberg-Institute), University of Hohenheim, Wollgrasweg 43, 70599, Stuttgart, Germany
| | - Thomas Daum
- Institute of Agricultural Sciences in the Tropics (Hans-Ruthenberg-Institute), University of Hohenheim, Wollgrasweg 43, 70599, Stuttgart, Germany
| | - Sarah Graf
- Institute of Agricultural Sciences in the Tropics (Hans-Ruthenberg-Institute), University of Hohenheim, Wollgrasweg 43, 70599, Stuttgart, Germany
| | - Denise Güttler
- Institute of Agricultural Sciences in the Tropics (Hans-Ruthenberg-Institute), University of Hohenheim, Wollgrasweg 43, 70599, Stuttgart, Germany
| | - Jakob Heni
- Institute of Agricultural Sciences in the Tropics (Hans-Ruthenberg-Institute), University of Hohenheim, Wollgrasweg 43, 70599, Stuttgart, Germany
| | - Juliet Kariuki
- Institute of Agricultural Sciences in the Tropics (Hans-Ruthenberg-Institute), University of Hohenheim, Wollgrasweg 43, 70599, Stuttgart, Germany
| | - Roseline Katusiime
- Institute of Agricultural Sciences in the Tropics (Hans-Ruthenberg-Institute), University of Hohenheim, Wollgrasweg 43, 70599, Stuttgart, Germany
| | - Anna Seidel
- Institute of Agricultural Sciences in the Tropics (Hans-Ruthenberg-Institute), University of Hohenheim, Wollgrasweg 43, 70599, Stuttgart, Germany
| | - Zinsou Narcisse Senon
- Regional Agency of Agricultural Development-Plateau, Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fishery, Benin
| | - George Woode
- Institute of Agricultural Sciences in the Tropics (Hans-Ruthenberg-Institute), University of Hohenheim, Wollgrasweg 43, 70599, Stuttgart, Germany
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50
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Eum NJ, Kim SH. A Cross-Country Comparative Study on the Role of Information and Communication Technology Policy and Infrastructure to Curb the Spread of Novel Coronavirus. JMIR Public Health Surveill 2021; 8:e31066. [PMID: 34817392 PMCID: PMC8745697 DOI: 10.2196/31066] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/08/2021] [Revised: 08/25/2021] [Accepted: 11/23/2021] [Indexed: 12/11/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Despite worldwide efforts, control of COVID-19 transmission and its after effects is lagging. As seen from the cases of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza, worldwide crises associated with infections and their side effects are likely to recur in the future because of extensive international interactions. Consequently, there is an urgent need to identify the factors that can mitigate disease spread. We observed that the transmission speed and severity of consequences of COVID-19 varied substantially across countries, signaling the need for a country-level investigation. Objective We aimed to investigate how distancing-enabling information and communications technology (ICT) infrastructure and medical ICT infrastructure, and related policies have affected the cumulative number of confirmed cases, fatality rate, and initial speed of transmission across different countries. Methods We analyzed the determinants of COVID-19 transmission during the relatively early days of the pandemic by conducting regression analysis based on our data for country-level characteristics, including demographics, culture, ICT infrastructure, policies, economic status, and transmission of COVID-19. To gain further insights, we conducted a subsample analysis for countries with low population density. Results Our full sample analysis showed that implied telehealth policy, which refers to the lack of a specific telehealth-related policy but presence of a general eHealth policy, was associated with lower fatality rates when controlled for cultural characteristics (P=.004). In particular, the fatality rate for countries with an implied telehealth policy was lower than that for others by 2.7%. Interestingly, stated telehealth policy, which refers to the existence of a specified telehealth policy, was found to not be associated with lower fatality rates (P=.30). Furthermore, countries with a government-run health website had 36% fewer confirmed cases than those without it, when controlled for cultural characteristics (P=.03). Our analysis further revealed that the interaction between implied telehealth policy and training ICT health was significant (P=.01), suggesting that implied telehealth policy may be more effective when in-service training on ICT is provided to health professionals. In addition, credit card ownership, as an enabler of convenient e-commerce transactions and distancing, showed a negative association with fatality rates in the full sample analysis (P=.04), but not in the subsample analysis (P=.76), highlighting that distancing-enabling ICT is more useful in densely populated countries. Conclusions Our findings demonstrate important relationships between national traits and COVID-19 infections, suggesting guidelines for policymakers to minimize the negative consequences of pandemics. The findings suggest physicians’ autonomous use of medical ICT and strategic allocation of distancing-enabling ICT infrastructure in countries with high population density to maximize efficiency. This study also encourages further research to investigate the role of health policies in combatting COVID-19 and other pandemics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nam Ji Eum
- Yonsei University, 50 Yonsei-ro, Sinchon-dong, Seodaemun-gu, Seoul, KR
| | - Seung Hyun Kim
- Yonsei University, 50 Yonsei-ro, Sinchon-dong, Seodaemun-gu, Seoul, KR
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