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Towolawi AT, Oguntoke O, Bada BS, Adejuwon JO, Adegbore AK, Abdulsalami BA, Buari ZO. Thermal stress indication for heat-related illnesses by climate change in Nigeria using multivariate analysis. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2025:10.1007/s00484-025-02924-5. [PMID: 40274651 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-025-02924-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/21/2024] [Revised: 04/04/2025] [Accepted: 04/11/2025] [Indexed: 04/26/2025]
Abstract
Biometeorology typifies climate change threats with indices such as the thermal stress index (TSI) for heat-related illnesses. The study aimed to evaluate the actual TSI (which has five categories: TSI < 27 (safe), 27 < TSI < 32 (heat fatigue), 32 < TSI < 41 (sunstroke and heat exhaustion), 41 < TSI < 54 (sunstroke and heat cramps), and TSI > 54 (sunstroke, heat stroke and heat confusion, or delirium) across four rain-fed provinces (Markudi in Benue state, Benin in Edo state, Minna in Niger state and Ondo in Ondo state) using 32-year (1987-2018) monthly temperature and relative humidity data obtained from Nigeria Meteorology Services, Abuja. The TSI was computed for each state, and its average was compared across the states. Pearson's correlation momentum (PCM), Normal probability residual plot (NPRP), Multiple regression analysis (MRA), and Principal component analysis (PCA) were also adopted. The results showed that there were more heat fatigue indications in the dry periods than in the wet period in the Benin environment; nearly one-third of the study years (12 out of 32 years) indicated heat fatigue, denoting prevalence of climate change (CC) effects in Ondo State and environs. The order of occurrences of heat fatigue (27 < TSI < 32) in Minna and its environs were peculiar to April > March > May with 21, 7, and 6 values of occurrences, respectively. Both 2004 and 2018 had 4-month with the highest indication of heat fatigue (27 < TSI < 32) in Makurdi environs. The multivariate analysis: PCM, NPRP, MRA, and PCA indicated various monthly strong TSI associations at 0.01 level of statistics; valid and established homoscedasticity for the model; significant reduced effects in February, June and October while increased effect in September; and the seven wet season, four dry season (November to February), and March had 47, 19 and 10% variance across component 1, 2, and 3, respectively. The study concluded that the most prevalent TSI category was fatigue, against which the study advised healthcare education for dwellers and their environs to cope with the CC effects.
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Affiliation(s)
- Adeleke Taofik Towolawi
- Department of Environmental Health Science, Fountain University, Osogbo, Osun State, Nigeria.
| | - Olusegun Oguntoke
- Environmental Management and Toxicology, Federal University of Agriculture, Abeokuta, Ogun State, Nigeria
| | - Babatunde Saheed Bada
- Environmental Management and Toxicology, Federal University of Agriculture, Abeokuta, Ogun State, Nigeria
| | - Joseph O Adejuwon
- Water Resources Management and Agrometeorology, Federal University of Agriculture, Abeokuta, Ogun State, Nigeria
| | | | - Baseerat Adebola Abdulsalami
- Department of Information Systems, Faculty of Computing and Informatics, Ladoke Akintola University of Technology, Ogbomoso, Oyo State, Nigeria
| | - Zainab Opeoluwa Buari
- Paediatric Department, Mother and Child Hospitals, Amuwo Odofin, Festac, Lagos State, Nigeria
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Declet-Barreto J, Ruddell BL, Barber JJ, Petitti DB, Harlan SL. A Socio-spatial Model of the Risk of Hospitalization from Vulnerability to High Temperatures. MEDRXIV : THE PREPRINT SERVER FOR HEALTH SCIENCES 2025:2025.03.29.24319024. [PMID: 40236419 PMCID: PMC11998821 DOI: 10.1101/2025.03.29.24319024] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/17/2025]
Abstract
Urban heat islands and climate change create increasingly hot environments that pose a threat to the health of the public in urban areas throughout the planet. In Maricopa County, Arizona, --- the hottest metropolitan area in the United States---we have previously shown that the effects of heat on mortality are greater in the social and built environments of low-income and communities of color (predominantly Hispanic/Latinx and Black neighborhoods). In this analysis of morbidity data from Maricopa County, we examined the relationship between heat-related hospitalization and summertime daily maximum air temperatures in groups defined at the census block group level as being at high, medium, or low vulnerability based on a Heat Vulnerability Index that was derived from socio-economic and built-environment data. For all three categories of census block group heat vulnerability, we identified 26°C as the daily maximum air temperature threshold beyond which heat-related hospitalization risk increased rapidly with each 1 °C increase in temperature. Compared to this baseline temperature, the relative risk of hospitalization was greatest in the high vulnerability census block groups and least in the low vulnerability census block groups with intermediate increases in the medium vulnerability census block groups. Specifically, with 26°C as the referent, the relative risks of heat-related hospitalization increased from 0.97 at 27°C to 15.71 at 46°C in the low vulnerability group, from 1.03 at 27°C to 53.97 at 46°C in the medium vulnerability group, and from 1.09 at 27°C to 162.46 at 46°C in the high vulnerability group. Our research helps identify areas with high heat population sensitivity and exposure that can be targeted for adaptation with policies and investments, which include, for example, improving public health safety nets and outcomes, access to affordable energy-efficient housing and health care, energy justice, and modifications to cool the urban built environment. Our hospitalization risk estimates can be incorporated into quantitative risk assessments of heat-related morbidity in Maricopa County.
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Affiliation(s)
- Juan Declet-Barreto
- Climate & Energy Program, Union of Concerned Scientists, Washington, DC, USA
| | - Benjamin L Ruddell
- School of Informatics, Computing, and Cyber Systems, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, USA
| | - Jarrett J Barber
- School of Informatics, Computing, and Cyber Systems, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, USA
| | - Diana B Petitti
- University of Arizona College of Medicine-Phoenix, Phoenix, Arizona, USA
| | - Sharon L Harlan
- Department of Health Sciences and Department of Sociology & Anthropology, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA
- School of Human Evolution and Social Change, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA
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Connerton P, Nogueira T, Kumar P, de Fatima Andrade M, Ribeiro H. Exploring Climate and Air Pollution Mitigating Benefits of Urban Parks in Sao Paulo Through a Pollution Sensor Network. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2025; 22:306. [PMID: 40003531 PMCID: PMC11854963 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph22020306] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/20/2024] [Revised: 02/05/2025] [Accepted: 02/13/2025] [Indexed: 02/27/2025]
Abstract
Ambient air pollution is the most important environmental factor impacting human health. Urban landscapes present unique air quality challenges, which are compounded by climate change adaptation challenges, as air pollutants can also be affected by the urban heat island effect, amplifying the deleterious effects on health. Nature-based solutions have shown potential for alleviating environmental stressors, including air pollution and heat wave abatement. However, such solutions must be designed in order to maximize mitigation and not inadvertently increase pollutant exposure. This study aims to demonstrate potential applications of nature-based solutions in urban environments for climate stressors and air pollution mitigation by analyzing two distinct scenarios with and without green infrastructure. Utilizing low-cost sensors, we examine the relationship between green infrastructure and a series of environmental parameters. While previous studies have investigated green infrastructure and air quality mitigation, our study employs low-cost sensors in tropical urban environments. Through this novel approach, we are able to obtain highly localized data that demonstrates this mitigating relationship. In this study, as a part of the NERC-FAPESP-funded GreenCities project, four low-cost sensors were validated through laboratory testing and then deployed in two locations in São Paulo, Brazil: one large, heavily forested park (CIENTEC) and one small park surrounded by densely built areas (FSP). At each site, one sensor was located in a vegetated area (Park sensor) and one near the roadside (Road sensor). The locations selected allow for a comparison of built versus green and blue areas. Lidar data were used to characterize the profile of each site based on surrounding vegetation and building area. Distance and class of the closest roadways were also measured for each sensor location. These profiles are analyzed against the data obtained through the low-cost sensors, considering both meteorological (temperature, humidity and pressure) and particulate matter (PM1, PM2.5 and PM10) parameters. Particulate matter concentrations were lower for the sensors located within the forest site. At both sites, the road sensors showed higher concentrations during the daytime period. These results further reinforce the capabilities of green-blue-gray infrastructure (GBGI) tools to reduce exposure to air pollution and climate stressors, while also showing the importance of their design to ensure maximum benefits. The findings can inform decision-makers in designing more resilient cities, especially in low-and middle-income settings.
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Affiliation(s)
- Patrick Connerton
- Programa de Pós-Graduação em Saúde Global e Sustentabilidade, Faculdade de Saúde Pública, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo 01246-904, Brazil
| | - Thiago Nogueira
- Departamento de Saúde Ambiental, Faculdade de Saúde Pública, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo 01246-904, Brazil; (T.N.); (H.R.)
| | - Prashant Kumar
- Global Centre for Clean Air Research (GCARE), School of Engineering, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Physical Sciences, University of Surrey, Guildford, Surrey GU2 7XH, UK;
- Institute for Sustainability, University of Surrey, Guildford, Surrey GU2 7XH, UK
| | - Maria de Fatima Andrade
- Departamento de Ciências Atmosféricas, Instituto de Astronomia, Geofísica e Ciências Atmosféricas, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo 05508-090, Brazil
| | - Helena Ribeiro
- Departamento de Saúde Ambiental, Faculdade de Saúde Pública, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo 01246-904, Brazil; (T.N.); (H.R.)
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Lee CC, Silva A, Ibebuchi C, Sheridan SC. The influence of air masses on human mortality in the contiguous United States. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2024; 68:2281-2296. [PMID: 39103651 PMCID: PMC11519110 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-024-02745-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/22/2024] [Revised: 06/28/2024] [Accepted: 07/22/2024] [Indexed: 08/07/2024]
Abstract
Temperature-related mortality is the leading cause of weather-related deaths in the United States. Herein, we explore the effect of air masses (AMs) - a relatively novel and holistic measure of environmental conditions - on human mortality across 61 cities in the United States. Geographic and seasonal differences in the effects of each AM on deseasonalized and detrended anomalous lagged mortality are examined using simple descriptive statistics, one-way analyses of variance, relative risks of excess mortality, and regression-based artificial neural network (ANN) models. Results show that AMs are significantly related to anomalous mortality in most US cities, and in most seasons. Of note, two of the three cool AMs (Cool and Dry-Cool) each show a strong, but delayed mortality response in all seasons, with peak mortality 2 to 4 days after they occur, with the Dry-Cool AM having nearly a 15% increased risk of excess mortality. Humid-Warm (HW) air masses are associated with increases in deaths in all seasons 0 to 1 days after they occur. In most seasons, these near-term mortality increases are offset by reduced mortality for 1-2 weeks afterwards; however, in summer, no such reduction is noted. The Warm and Dry-Warm AMs show slightly longer periods of increased mortality, albeit slightly less intensely as compared with HW, but with a similar lag structure by season. Meanwhile, the most seasonally consistent results are with transitional weather, whereby passing cold fronts are associated with a significant decrease in mortality 1 day after they occur, while warm fronts are associated with significant increases in mortality at that same lag time. Finally, ANN modeling reveals that AM-mortality relationships gleaned from a combined meta-analysis can actually lead to more skillful modeling of these relationships than models trained on some individual cities, especially in the cities where such relationships might be masked due to low average daily mortality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cameron C Lee
- Kent State University, Department of Geography, ClimRISE Laboratory, 433 McGilvrey Hall, 325 S. Lincoln St., Kent, OH, 44242, USA.
| | - Alindomar Silva
- Kent State University, Department of Geography, ClimRISE Laboratory, 433 McGilvrey Hall, 325 S. Lincoln St., Kent, OH, 44242, USA
| | - Chibuike Ibebuchi
- Kent State University, Department of Geography, ClimRISE Laboratory, 433 McGilvrey Hall, 325 S. Lincoln St., Kent, OH, 44242, USA
| | - Scott C Sheridan
- Kent State University, Department of Geography, ClimRISE Laboratory, 433 McGilvrey Hall, 325 S. Lincoln St., Kent, OH, 44242, USA
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Fonseca MCM, Sansone D, Farah D, Fiorini AC, Scorza CA, Scorza FA. Seasonality as a risk factor for deaths in Parkinson's disease. Clinics (Sao Paulo) 2024; 79:100506. [PMID: 39461195 PMCID: PMC11543644 DOI: 10.1016/j.clinsp.2024.100506] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/03/2024] [Accepted: 07/21/2024] [Indexed: 10/29/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND According to growing evidence, sleep disruption harms biological processes and circadian homeostasis. Diurnal motor symptom volatility in Parkinson's Disease (PD) has been extensively studied. Few studies examined seasonal variability in PD symptoms, some showing it and others not. OBJECTIVE To investigate whether PD patients' deaths follow a rhythmic pattern due to circadian rhythm alterations. METHODS This study used only unidentified patient databases. People with PD, ICD10 code G20, in at least one death certificate field were selected. The Continuous Wavelet Transform and Fourier Transform were checked for oscillation and its duration. RESULTS The 18-year analysis found 43,072 PD deaths. The Continuous Wavelet transform revealed a 351.87-day annual component (p < 0.05). Winter in the southern hemisphere saw more deaths, mainly in July. The Continuous Wavelet transform identified a significant daily component (p < 0.05) of 22.81 hours. Fatalities peaked around 9 a.m. Pneumonia is the leading cause of death in PD, and women and men have the same rhythm pattern. CONCLUSION Parkinson's disease mortality in Brazil follows a pattern. Using over 40.000 death certificates from 18 years, the authors found that Parkinson's patient fatalities rise in winter and peak in July at about 9 a.m. Sunlight reduction increases mortality risk in the long term. Low sunshine lowers temperatures, increasing short-term death risk. This is crucial because it prioritizes the sun, seasons, and circadian rhythm over low temperatures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marcelo C M Fonseca
- Departamento de Ginecologia, Escola Paulista de Medicina/Universidade Federal de São Paulo (EPM/UNIFESP), São Paulo, SP, Brasil.
| | - Dayan Sansone
- Departamento de Ginecologia, Escola Paulista de Medicina/Universidade Federal de São Paulo (EPM/UNIFESP), São Paulo, SP, Brasil
| | - Daniela Farah
- Departamento de Ginecologia, Escola Paulista de Medicina/Universidade Federal de São Paulo (EPM/UNIFESP), São Paulo, SP, Brasil
| | - Ana Claudia Fiorini
- Departamento de Fonoaudiologia, Escola Paulista de Medicina/Universidade Federal de São Paulo (EPM/UNIFESP). São Paulo, SP, Brasil; Programa de Estudos Pós-Graduado em Fonoaudiologia, Pontifícia Universidade Católica de São Paulo (PUC-SP), São Paulo, SP, Brasil
| | - Carla A Scorza
- Disciplina de Neurociência, Escola Paulista de Medicina/Universidade Federal de São Paulo (EPM/UNIFESP). São Paulo, SP, Brasil
| | - Fulvio A Scorza
- Disciplina de Neurociência, Escola Paulista de Medicina/Universidade Federal de São Paulo (EPM/UNIFESP). São Paulo, SP, Brasil
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Scovronick N, Sera F, Vu B, Vicedo-Cabrera AM, Roye D, Tobias A, Seposo X, Forsberg B, Guo Y, Li S, Honda Y, Abrutzky R, de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho M, Nascimento Saldiva PH, Lavigne E, Kan H, Osorio S, Kyselý J, Urban A, Orru H, Indermitte E, Jaakkola JJ, Ryti N, Pascal M, Katsouyanni K, Mayvaneh F, Entezari A, Goodman P, Zeka A, Michelozzi P, de’Donato F, Hashizume M, Alahmad B, Zanobetti A, Schwartz J, Hurtado Diaz M, De La Cruz Valencia C, Rao S, Madureira J, Acquaotta F, Kim H, Lee W, Iniguez C, Ragettli MS, Guo YL, Dang TN, Dung DV, Armstrong B, Gasparrini A. Temperature-mortality associations by age and cause: a multi-country multi-city study. Environ Epidemiol 2024; 8:e336. [PMID: 39323989 PMCID: PMC11424137 DOI: 10.1097/ee9.0000000000000336] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/10/2024] [Accepted: 08/08/2024] [Indexed: 09/27/2024] Open
Abstract
Background Heterogeneity in temperature-mortality relationships across locations may partly result from differences in the demographic structure of populations and their cause-specific vulnerabilities. Here we conduct the largest epidemiological study to date on the association between ambient temperature and mortality by age and cause using data from 532 cities in 33 countries. Methods We collected daily temperature and mortality data from each country. Mortality data was provided as daily death counts within age groups from all, cardiovascular, respiratory, or noncardiorespiratory causes. We first fit quasi-Poisson regression models to estimate location-specific associations for each age-by-cause group. For each cause, we then pooled location-specific results in a dose-response multivariate meta-regression model that enabled us to estimate overall temperature-mortality curves at any age. The age analysis was limited to adults. Results We observed high temperature effects on mortality from both cardiovascular and respiratory causes compared to noncardiorespiratory causes, with the highest cold-related risks from cardiovascular causes and the highest heat-related risks from respiratory causes. Risks generally increased with age, a pattern most consistent for cold and for nonrespiratory causes. For every cause group, risks at both temperature extremes were strongest at the oldest age (age 85 years). Excess mortality fractions were highest for cold at the oldest ages. Conclusions There is a differential pattern of risk associated with heat and cold by cause and age; cardiorespiratory causes show stronger effects than noncardiorespiratory causes, and older adults have higher risks than younger adults.
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Affiliation(s)
- Noah Scovronick
- Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta
| | - Francesco Sera
- Environment and Health Modelling (EHM) Lab, Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
- Department of Statistics, Computer Science and Applications “G. Parenti,” University of Florence, Florence, Italy
| | - Bryan Vu
- Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Ana M. Vicedo-Cabrera
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Dominic Roye
- Climate Research Foundation (FIC), Madrid, Spain
- CIBER de Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain
| | - Aurelio Tobias
- Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research, Spanish Council for Scientific Research, Barcelona, Spain
- School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
| | - Xerxes Seposo
- School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
| | - Bertil Forsberg
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Yuming Guo
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
- Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventative Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Shanshan Li
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
- Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventative Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Yasushi Honda
- Center for Climate Change Adaptation, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
| | - Rosana Abrutzky
- Universidad de Buenos Aires, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Instituto de Investigaciones Gino Germani, Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | | | | | - Eric Lavigne
- School of Epidemiology and Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Canada
- Environmental Health Science and Research Bureau, Health Canada, Ottawa, Canada
| | - Haidong Kan
- Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Samuel Osorio
- Department of Environmental Health, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Jan Kyselý
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
- Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Aleš Urban
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
- Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Hans Orru
- Institute of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
| | - Ene Indermitte
- Institute of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
| | - Jouni J. Jaakkola
- Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
- Medical Research Center Oulu (MRC Oulu), Oulu University Hospital and University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
| | - Niilo Ryti
- Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
- Medical Research Center Oulu (MRC Oulu), Oulu University Hospital and University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
| | - Mathilde Pascal
- Santé Publique France, Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, French National Public Health Agency, Saint Maurice, France
| | - Klea Katsouyanni
- Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Greece
- School of Population Health and Environmental Sciences, King’s College, London, UK
| | - Fatemeh Mayvaneh
- Climatology Research Group, Institute of Landscape Ecology, University of Münster, Münster, Germany
| | - Alireza Entezari
- Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventative Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
- Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar Khorasan Razavi, Iran
| | | | - Ariana Zeka
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
- College of Health, Medicine and Life Sciences, Brunel University London, London, UK
| | - Paola Michelozzi
- Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, Rome, Italy
| | | | - Masahiro Hashizume
- Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Barak Alahmad
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Antonella Zanobetti
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Joel Schwartz
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Miguel Hurtado Diaz
- Department of Environmental Health, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca Morelos, Mexico
| | - C. De La Cruz Valencia
- Department of Environmental Health, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca Morelos, Mexico
| | - Shilpa Rao
- Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway
| | - Joana Madureira
- Department of Environmental Health, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr. Ricardo Jorge, Porto, Portugal
- EPIUnit – Instituto de Saúde Pública, Universidade do Porto, Porto, Portugal
- Laboratório para a Investigação Integrativa e Translacional em Saúde Populacional (ITR), Porto, Portugal
| | | | - Ho Kim
- Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Whanhee Lee
- School of Biomedical Convergence Engineering, College of Information and Biomedical Engineering, Pusan National University, Yangsan, South Korea
| | - Carmen Iniguez
- CIBER de Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain
- Department of Statistics and Computational Research. Universitat de València, València, Spain
| | - Martina S. Ragettli
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Allschwil, Switzerland
- University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Yue L. Guo
- Environmental and Occupational Medicine, National Taiwan University (NTU) College of Medicine and NTU Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
- National Institute of Environmental Health Science, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan, Taiwan
| | - Tran Ngoc Dang
- Department of Environmental Health, Faculty of Public Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - Do V. Dung
- Department of Environmental Health, Faculty of Public Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - Benedict Armstrong
- Environment and Health Modelling (EHM) Lab, Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Antonio Gasparrini
- Environment and Health Modelling (EHM) Lab, Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
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Gasparrini A, Vicedo-Cabrera AM, Tobias A. The Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network: An international research consortium investigating environment, climate, and health. Environ Epidemiol 2024; 8:e339. [PMID: 39263673 PMCID: PMC11390054 DOI: 10.1097/ee9.0000000000000339] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/13/2024] [Accepted: 08/08/2024] [Indexed: 09/13/2024] Open
Abstract
Research on the health risks of environmental factors and climate change requires epidemiological evidence on associated health risks at a global scale. Multi-center studies offer an excellent framework for this purpose, but they present various methodological and logistical problems. This contribution illustrates the experience of the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network, an international collaboration working on a global research program on the associations between environmental stressors, climate, and health in a multi-center setting. The article illustrates the collaborative scheme based on mutual contribution and data and method sharing, describes the collection of a huge multi-location database, summarizes published research findings and future plans, and discusses advantages and limitations. The Multi-Country Multi-City represents an example of a collaborative research framework that has greatly contributed to advance knowledge on the health impacts of climate change and other environmental factors and can be replicated to address other research questions across various research fields.
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Affiliation(s)
- Antonio Gasparrini
- Environment & Health Modelling (EHM) Lab, Department of Public Health Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Aurelio Tobias
- Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research, Spanish Council for Scientific Research, Barcelona, Spain
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Lai H, Lee JE, Harrington LJ, Ahuriri-Driscoll A, Newport C, Bolton A, Salter C, Morton S, Woodward A, Hales S. Daily Temperatures and Child Hospital Admissions in Aotearoa New Zealand: Case Time Series Analysis. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2024; 21:1236. [PMID: 39338120 PMCID: PMC11432253 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph21091236] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/22/2024] [Revised: 09/13/2024] [Accepted: 09/15/2024] [Indexed: 09/30/2024]
Abstract
The influence of global climate change on temperature-related health outcomes among vulnerable populations, particularly young children, is underexplored. Using a case time series design, we analysed 647,000 hospital admissions of children aged under five years old in New Zealand, born between 2000 and 2019. We explored the relationship between daily maximum temperatures and hospital admissions across 2139 statistical areas. We used quasi-Poisson distributed lag non-linear models to account for the delayed effects of temperature over a 0-21-day window. We identified broad ICD code categories associated with heat before combining these for the main analyses. We conducted stratified analyses by ethnicity, sex, and residency, and tested for interactions with long-term temperature, socioeconomic position, and housing tenure. We found J-shaped temperature-response curves with increased risks of hospital admission above 24.1 °C, with greater sensitivity among Māori, Pacific, and Asian compared to European children. Spatial-temporal analysis from 2013-2019 showed rising attributable fractions (AFs) of admissions associated with increasing temperatures, especially in eastern coastal and densely populated areas. Interactive maps were created to allow policymakers to prioritise interventions. Findings emphasize the need for child-specific and location-specific climate change adaptation policies, particularly for socioeconomically disadvantaged groups.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hakkan Lai
- Section of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Auckland, Auckland 1023, New Zealand;
| | - Jeong Eun Lee
- Department of Statistics, University of Auckland, Auckland 1010, New Zealand;
| | - Luke J. Harrington
- Te Aka Mātuatua School of Science, University of Waikato, Hamilton 3216, New Zealand
| | - Annabel Ahuriri-Driscoll
- Te Kura Mātai Hauora School of Health Sciences, University of Canterbury, Christchurch 8041, New Zealand;
| | - Christina Newport
- School of Population Health, University of Auckland, Auckland 1023, New Zealand;
| | - Annette Bolton
- Institute of Environmental Science and Research, Christchurch 8041, New Zealand; (A.B.); (C.S.)
| | - Claire Salter
- Institute of Environmental Science and Research, Christchurch 8041, New Zealand; (A.B.); (C.S.)
| | - Susan Morton
- Research Institute for Innovative Solutions for Well-being and Health (INSIGHT), Faculty of Health, University of Technology Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2007, Australia;
| | - Alistair Woodward
- Section of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Auckland, Auckland 1023, New Zealand;
| | - Simon Hales
- Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington 6011, New Zealand
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9
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Alahmad B, Yuan Q, Achilleos S, Salameh P, Papatheodorou SI, Koutrakis P. Evaluating the temperature-mortality relationship over 16 years in Cyprus. JOURNAL OF THE AIR & WASTE MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATION (1995) 2024; 74:439-448. [PMID: 38718302 DOI: 10.1080/10962247.2024.2345637] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/13/2023] [Revised: 03/28/2024] [Accepted: 04/08/2024] [Indexed: 06/01/2024]
Abstract
In many regions of the world, the relationship between ambient temperature and mortality is well-documented, but little is known about Cyprus, a Mediterranean island country where climate change is progressing faster than the global average. We Examined the association between daily ambient temperature and all-cause mortality risk in Cyprus. We conducted a time-series analysis with quasipoisson distribution and distributed lag non-linear models to investigate the association between temperature and all-cause mortality from 1 January 2004 to 31 December 2019 in five districts in Cyprus. We then performed a meta-analysis to estimate the overall temperature-mortality dose-response relationship in Cyprus. Excess mortality was computed to determine the public health burden caused by extreme temperatures. We did not find evidence of heterogeneity between the five districts (p = 0.47). The pooled results show that for cold effects, comparing the 1st, 2.5th, and 5th percentiles to the optimal temperature (temperature associated with least mortality, 25 ℃), the overall relative risks of mortality were 1.55 (95% CI: 1.32, 1.82), 1.41 (95% CI: 1.21, 1.64), and 1.32 (95% CI: 1.15, 1.52), respectively. For heat effects, the overall relative risks of mortality at the 95th, 97.5th and 99th percentiles were 1.10 (95% CI: 1.04, 1.16), 1.17 (95% CI: 1.07, 1.29), and 1.29 (95% CI: 1.11, 1.5), respectively. The excess mortality attributable to cold days accounted for 8.0 deaths (95% empirical CI: 4.5-10.8) for every 100 deaths, while the excess mortality attributable to heat days accounted for 1.3 deaths (95% empirical CI: 0.7-1.7) for every 100 deaths. The results prompt additional research into environmental risk prevention in this under-studied hot and dry region that could experience disproportionate climate change related exposures.Implications: The quantification of excess mortality attributable to temperature extremes shows an urgent need for targeted public health interventions and climate adaptation strategies in Cyprus and similar regions facing rapid climate change. Future steps should look into subpopulation sensitivity, coping strategies, and adaptive interventions to reduce potential future risks.
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Affiliation(s)
- Barrak Alahmad
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
- Dasman Diabetes Institute, Kuwait City, Kuwait
| | - Qinni Yuan
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Souzana Achilleos
- School of Health Sciences, Cyprus University of Technology, Limassol, Cyprus
- Department of Primary Care and Population Health, University of Nicosia Medical School, Nicosia, Cyprus
| | - Pascale Salameh
- Department of Primary Care and Population Health, University of Nicosia Medical School, Nicosia, Cyprus
| | - Stefania I Papatheodorou
- Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Petros Koutrakis
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
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10
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Liu J, Zhang M, Huang J, Guo C, Yang J, Yue C, Zi W, Yang Q. Short-Term Effect of Ambient Temperature in Acute Ischemic Stroke with Endovascular Treatment Due to Large Vessel Occlusion. Clin Interv Aging 2024; 19:627-638. [PMID: 38646590 PMCID: PMC11032672 DOI: 10.2147/cia.s453268] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/26/2023] [Accepted: 04/04/2024] [Indexed: 04/23/2024] Open
Abstract
Purpose Acute ischemic stroke (AIS) stands as the primary cause of mortality and extended disability globally. While prior studies have examined the connection between stroke and local weather, they have produced conflicting results. Our goal was to examine the correlation between temperature and functional prognosis in patients with large vessel occlusion (LVO) undergoing endovascular therapy (EVT). Patients and methods This study included a total of 1809 patients. Temperatures from stroke onset to groin puncture were categorized into Cold (10th percentile of temperature), Cool (10th-50th percentile of temperature), Warm (50th-90th percentile of temperature), and Hot (90th percentile of temperature) groups. The primary efficacy result was the modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score at 90 days. Safety outcomes included mortality, symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (sICH) and complications after cerebral infarction. Results The primary efficacy results demonstrated a statistical enhancement in functional outcomes at 90 days for patients in the Warm group compared to the Cold group (adjusted common odds ratio [OR]: 1.386; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.024-1.878, P=0.035). Secondary efficacy results showed that temperature was associated with a higher rate of 90-day functional independence (adjusted OR: 1.016; 95% CI: 1.004-1.029; P=0.009), which was higher in the Warm group compared with patients in the Cold group (adjusted OR: 1.646; 95% CI: 1.107-2.448, P=0.014). There were no significant differences between groups in terms of sICH, 90-day mortality, and post-infarction complications. Conclusion Compared with Cold temperature, Warm temperature is associated with better functional outcomes and reduced mortality risk without increasing the risk of sICH.
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Affiliation(s)
- Juan Liu
- Department of Neurology, Xinqiao Hospital and The Second Affiliated Hospital, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), Chongqing, People’s Republic of China
| | - Min Zhang
- Department of Neurology, Jiangmen Central Hospital, Jiangmen, People’s Republic of China
| | - Jiandi Huang
- Department of Neurology, Xinqiao Hospital and The Second Affiliated Hospital, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), Chongqing, People’s Republic of China
| | - Changwei Guo
- Department of Neurology, Xinqiao Hospital and The Second Affiliated Hospital, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), Chongqing, People’s Republic of China
| | - Jie Yang
- Department of Neurology, Xinqiao Hospital and The Second Affiliated Hospital, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), Chongqing, People’s Republic of China
| | - Chengsong Yue
- Department of Neurology, Xinqiao Hospital and The Second Affiliated Hospital, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), Chongqing, People’s Republic of China
| | - Wenjie Zi
- Department of Neurology, Xinqiao Hospital and The Second Affiliated Hospital, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), Chongqing, People’s Republic of China
| | - Qingwu Yang
- Department of Neurology, Xinqiao Hospital and The Second Affiliated Hospital, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), Chongqing, People’s Republic of China
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11
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Villacura L, Sánchez LF, Catalán F, Toro A R, Leiva G MA. An overview of air pollution research in Chile: Bibliometric analysis and scoping review, challenger and future directions. Heliyon 2024; 10:e25431. [PMID: 38327474 PMCID: PMC10847656 DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e25431] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/24/2023] [Revised: 01/18/2024] [Accepted: 01/26/2024] [Indexed: 02/09/2024] Open
Abstract
This study provides a comprehensive overview and bibliometric analysis of air pollution research in Chile from 1980 to 2022. The analysis reveals a significant increase in scientific production, a 9.2 annual growth rate, and an H-index of 60. The research spans 33 countries and is influenced by environmental sciences, meteorology, and atmospheric sciences journals. The top ten authors account for 33.49 % of all publications, with local institutions contributing more than 35 %. The University of Chile and the Pontifical Catholic University of Chile are significant contributors. The most cited articles focus on health impacts and various pollutant sources, emphasizing air pollution as a critical public health concern. The study also emphasizes environmental science, meteorology, and atmospheric science, focusing on topics such as air pollution and health, pollutants, models, sources and chemistry, and social sciences. The findings are affirmed through rigorous discussion and review, providing a roadmap for future research, guiding decision-making processes, and expanding the knowledge frontier in the field.
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Affiliation(s)
- Loreto Villacura
- Departamento de Química, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Chile, Las Palmeras 3425, Ñuñoa, Santiago 7800003, Chile
| | - Luis Felipe Sánchez
- Departamento de Química, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Chile, Las Palmeras 3425, Ñuñoa, Santiago 7800003, Chile
| | - Francisco Catalán
- Departamento de Química, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Chile, Las Palmeras 3425, Ñuñoa, Santiago 7800003, Chile
| | - Richard Toro A
- Departamento de Química, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Chile, Las Palmeras 3425, Ñuñoa, Santiago 7800003, Chile
| | - Manuel A. Leiva G
- Departamento de Química, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Chile, Las Palmeras 3425, Ñuñoa, Santiago 7800003, Chile
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12
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Kapwata T, Abdelatif N, Scovronick N, Gebreslasie MT, Acquaotta F, Wright CY. Identifying heat thresholds for South Africa towards the development of a heat-health warning system. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2024; 68:381-392. [PMID: 38157021 PMCID: PMC10794383 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-023-02596-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/07/2022] [Revised: 11/30/2023] [Accepted: 12/05/2023] [Indexed: 01/03/2024]
Abstract
Exposure to heatwaves may result in adverse human health impacts. Heat alerts in South Africa are currently based on defined temperature-fixed threshold values for large towns and cities. However, heat-health warning systems (HHWS) should incorporate metrics that have been shown to be effective predictors of negative heat-related health outcomes. This study contributes to the development of a HHWS for South Africa that can potentially minimize heat-related mortality. Distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNM) were used to assess the association between maximum and minimum temperature and diurnal temperature range (DTR) and population-adjusted mortality during summer months, and the effects were presented as incidence rate ratios (IRR). District-level thresholds for the best predictor from these three metrics were estimated with threshold regression. The mortality dataset contained records of daily registered deaths (n = 8,476,532) from 1997 to 2013 and data for the temperature indices were for the same period. Maximum temperature appeared to be the most statistically significant predictor of all-cause mortality with strong associations observed in 40 out of 52 districts. Maximum temperature was associated with increased risk of mortality in all but three of the districts. Our results also found that heat-related mortality was influenced by regional climate because the spatial distribution of the thresholds varied according to the climate zones across the country. On average, districts located in the hot, arid interior provinces of the Northern Cape and North West experienced some of the highest thresholds compared to districts located in temperate interior or coastal provinces. As the effects of climate change become more significant, population exposure to heat is increasing. Therefore, evidence-based HHWS are required to reduce heat-related mortality and morbidity. The exceedance of the maximum temperature thresholds provided in this study could be used to issue heat alerts as part of effective heat health action plans.
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Affiliation(s)
- Thandi Kapwata
- Environment and Health Research Unit, South African Medical Research Council, Johannesburg, 2028, South Africa.
- Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, 0028, South Africa.
| | - Nada Abdelatif
- Biostatistics Research Unit, South African Medical Research Council, Durban, 4001, South Africa
| | - Noah Scovronick
- Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, 30322, USA
| | - Michael T Gebreslasie
- School of Agriculture, Earth, and Environmental Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, 3629, South Africa
| | | | - Caradee Y Wright
- Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, 0028, South Africa
- Environment and Health Research Unit, South African Medical Research Council, Pretoria, 0084, South Africa
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13
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Kloog I, Zhang X. Methods to Advance Climate Science in Respiratory Health: Satellite-Based Environmental Modeling for Temperature Exposure Assessment in Epidemiological Studies. Immunol Allergy Clin North Am 2024; 44:97-107. [PMID: 37973263 DOI: 10.1016/j.iac.2023.07.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/19/2023]
Abstract
Climate change is a major concern with significant impacts on human health including respiratory outcomes, particularly through changes in air temperature. The rise in global temperature has led to an increase in heat waves and extreme weather events, which pose serious risks to respiratory health. Accurately assessing the effects of air temperature on respiratory health requires a comprehensive approach that incorporates fine-scale exposure assessment to characterize the geospatial environment impacting population health. Recent advances in open-source earth observation data have allowed for improved exposure assessment through temperature modeling.
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Affiliation(s)
- Itai Kloog
- Department of Environmental Medicine and Public Health, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA; Department of Geography and Environmental Development, Ben-Gurion University, Beer Sheva, Israel; Institute for Exposomic Research, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA
| | - Xueying Zhang
- Department of Environmental Medicine and Public Health, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA; Institute for Exposomic Research, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA; Department of Pediatrics, The Kravis Children's Hospital, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA.
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14
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Wang W, Ma Y, Qin P, Liu Z, Zhao Y, Jiao H. Assessment of mortality risks due to a strong cold spell in 2022 in China. Front Public Health 2023; 11:1322019. [PMID: 38131020 PMCID: PMC10733490 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1322019] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/15/2023] [Accepted: 11/22/2023] [Indexed: 12/23/2023] Open
Abstract
Background With the intensification of global climate warming, extreme low temperature events such as cold spells have become an increasingly significant threat to public health. Few studies have examined the relationship between cold spells and mortality in multiple Chinese provinces. Methods We employed health impact functions for temperature and mortality to quantify the health risks of the first winter cold spell in China on November 26th, 2022, and analyzed the reasons for the stronger development of the cold spell in terms of the circulation field. Results This cold spell was a result of the continuous reinforcement of the blocking high-pressure system in the Ural Mountains, leading to the deepening of the cold vortex in front of it. Temperature changes associated with the movement of cold fronts produced additional mortality risks and mortality burdens. In general, the average excess risk (ER) of death during the cold spell in China was 2.75%, with a total cumulative excess of 369,056 deaths. The health risks associated with temperatures were unevenly distributed spatially in China, with the ER values ranging from a minimum of 0.14% to a maximum of 5.72%, and temperature drops disproportionately affect southern regions of China more than northern regions. The cumulative excess deaths exibited the highest in eastern and central China, with 87,655 and 80,230 respectively, and the lowest in northwest China with 27,474 deaths. Among the provinces, excess deaths pronounced the highest in Shandong with 29,492 and the lowest in Tibet with only 196. Conclusion The study can provide some insight into the mortality burden of cold spells in China, while emphasising the importance of understanding the complex relationship between extreme low temperature events and human health. The outcomes could provide valuable revelations for informing pertinent public health policies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wanci Wang
- College of Atmospheric Sciences, Key Laboratory of Semi-Arid Climate Change, Ministry of Education, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China
| | - Yuxia Ma
- College of Atmospheric Sciences, Key Laboratory of Semi-Arid Climate Change, Ministry of Education, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China
| | - Pengpeng Qin
- College of Atmospheric Sciences, Key Laboratory of Semi-Arid Climate Change, Ministry of Education, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China
| | - Zongrui Liu
- College of Atmospheric Sciences, Key Laboratory of Semi-Arid Climate Change, Ministry of Education, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China
| | - Yuhan Zhao
- College of Atmospheric Sciences, Key Laboratory of Semi-Arid Climate Change, Ministry of Education, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China
| | - Haoran Jiao
- Liaoning Provincial Meteorological Bureau, Shenyang, China
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15
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Chessa C, Susca T. Development of an LCA characterization factor to account UHI local effect on terrestrial ecosystems damage category: Evaluation of European Bombus and Onthophagus genera heat-stress mortality. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 897:165183. [PMID: 37385499 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165183] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/12/2023] [Revised: 06/09/2023] [Accepted: 06/26/2023] [Indexed: 07/01/2023]
Abstract
Life Cycle Assessment as currently implemented fails in detecting and measuring the interactions between urban climate and built environment, specifically the urban heat island, providing potentially misleading results. The present study offers an advancement in Life Cycle Assessment methodology, and specifically in ReCiPe2016 method, by (a) suggesting the implementation of the Local Warming Potential midpoint impact category where the variation of urban temperature converges; (b) developing a new characterization factor through the definition of damage pathways to assess the effect of urban heat island on terrestrial ecosystems damage category, specifically on European Bombus and Onthophagus genera; (c) defining local endpoint damage categories where environmental local impacts can be addressed. The developed characterization factor has been applied to the case study of an urban area in Rome, Italy. The results show that the evaluation of the effects of urban overheating on local terrestrial ecosystems is meaningful and may support urban decision-makers who want to holistically assess urban plans.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Tiziana Susca
- ENEA Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development, Department Unit for Energy Efficiency, Italy.
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16
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Perry T, Obolski U, Peretz C. The Association Between High Ambient Temperature and Mortality in the Mediterranean Basin: a Systematic Review and Meta-analysis. Curr Environ Health Rep 2023; 10:61-71. [PMID: 36417094 DOI: 10.1007/s40572-022-00386-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 09/15/2022] [Indexed: 11/24/2022]
Abstract
PURPOSE OF REVIEW The Mediterranean basin is highly vulnerable to climate change. This study is aimed at quantifying the risk of mortality associated with exposure to high ambient temperature in the Mediterranean basin in the general population and in vulnerable sub-populations. RECENT FINDINGS We retrieved effect estimates from studies linking temperature and mortality in the Mediterranean basin, between 2000 and 2021. In a meta-analysis of 16 studies, we found an increased risk of all-cause mortality due to ambient heat/high temperature exposure in the Mediterranean basin, with a pooled RR of 1.035 (95%CI 1.028-1.041) per 1 °C increase in temperature above local thresholds (I2 = 79%). Risk was highest for respiratory mortality (RR = 1.063, 95% CI 1.052-1.074) and cardiovascular mortality (RR = 1.046, 95% CI 1.036-1.057). Hot ambient temperatures increase the mortality risk across the Mediterranean basin. Further studies, especially in North African, Asian Mediterranean, and eastern European countries, are needed to bolster regional preparedness against future heat-related health burdens.
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Affiliation(s)
- Talila Perry
- School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
| | - Uri Obolski
- School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
- Porter School of the Environment and Earth Sciences, Faculty of Exact Sciences, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
| | - Chava Peretz
- School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel.
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17
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Telesca V, Castronuovo G, Favia G, Marranchelli C, Pizzulli VA, Ragosta M. Effects of Meteo-Climatic Factors on Hospital Admissions for Cardiovascular Diseases in the City of Bari, Southern Italy. Healthcare (Basel) 2023; 11:690. [PMID: 36900694 PMCID: PMC10000402 DOI: 10.3390/healthcare11050690] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/19/2022] [Revised: 02/20/2023] [Accepted: 02/21/2023] [Indexed: 03/03/2023] Open
Abstract
The objective of this study was to determine the relationship between weather conditions and hospital admissions for cardiovascular diseases (CVD). The analysed data of CVD hospital admissions were part of the database of the Policlinico Giovanni XXIII of Bari (southern Italy) within a reference period of 4 years (2013-2016). CVD hospital admissions have been aggregated with daily meteorological recordings for the reference time interval. The decomposition of the time series allowed us to filter trend components; consequently, the non-linear exposure-response relationship between hospitalizations and meteo-climatic parameters was modelled with the application of a Distributed Lag Non-linear model (DLNM) without smoothing functions. The relevance of each meteorological variable in the simulation process was determined by means of machine learning feature importance technique. The study employed a Random Forest algorithm to identify the most representative features and their respective importance in predicting the phenomenon. As a result of the process, the mean temperature, maximum temperature, apparent temperature, and relative humidity have been determined to be the most suitable meteorological variables as the best variables for the process simulation. The study examined daily admissions to emergency rooms for cardiovascular diseases. Using a predictive analysis of the time series, an increase in the relative risk associated with colder temperatures was found between 8.3 °C and 10.3 °C. This increase occurred instantly and significantly 0-1 days after the event. The increase in hospitalizations for CVD has been shown to be correlated to high temperatures above 28.6 °C for lag day 5.
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Affiliation(s)
- Vito Telesca
- School of Engineering, University of Basilicata, Viale dell’Ateneo Lucano 10, 85100 Potenza, Italy
| | - Gianfranco Castronuovo
- School of Engineering, University of Basilicata, Viale dell’Ateneo Lucano 10, 85100 Potenza, Italy
| | - Gianfranco Favia
- Interdisciplinary of Medicine, School of Medicine, University of Bari, Piazza Giulio Cesare 11, 70124 Bari, Italy
| | | | - Vito Alberto Pizzulli
- School of Engineering, University of Basilicata, Viale dell’Ateneo Lucano 10, 85100 Potenza, Italy
| | - Maria Ragosta
- School of Engineering, University of Basilicata, Viale dell’Ateneo Lucano 10, 85100 Potenza, Italy
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Aghababaeian H, Ostadtaghizadeh A, Ardalan A, Asgary A, Akbary M, Yekaninejad MS, Sharafkhani R, Stephens C. Mortality Risk Related to Heatwaves in Dezful City, Southwest of Iran. ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH INSIGHTS 2023; 17:11786302231151538. [PMID: 36762075 PMCID: PMC9903032 DOI: 10.1177/11786302231151538] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/11/2022] [Accepted: 01/02/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND We aimed to evaluate the impact of heatwaves on daily deaths due to non-accidental, cardiovascular and respiratory causes in the city of Dezful in Iran from 2013 to 2019. METHOD We collected daily ambient temperature and mortality and defined 2 types of heatwaves by combining daily temperature ⩾90th in each month of the study period or since 30 years with duration ⩾2 and 3 days. We used a distributed lag non-linear model to study the association between each type of heatwave definition, and deaths due to non-accidental, cardiovascular and respiratory causes with lags up to 13 days. RESULTS There was no discernible correlation in this area, despite the fact that heatwaves raised the risk of death from cardiovascular causes and lowered the risk from respiratory causes. On the other hand, the risk of total non-accidental mortality on days with the heatwaves is significantly higher than normal days. In main effects, the heatwaves have a significant relationship with the risk of total non-accidental mortality (in the first heatwave definition, Cumulative Excess Risk (CER) in lag0-2 was 10.4 and in second heatwave definition, CER values in lag0, 0-2, and 0-6 were 12.4, 29.2, and 38.8 respectively). Also, in added effects, heatwaves have a significant relationship with the risk of total non-accidental mortality (in the first heatwave definition, CER in lag0 and 0-2 were 1.79 and 4.11 and in the second heatwave definition, CER values in lag0, 0-2, and 0-6 were 7.76, 18.35 and 24.87 respectively). In addition, heatwaves appeared to contribute to a cumulative excess risk of non-accidental death among the male group as well as the older adults. CONCLUSION However, the results showed that heatwaves could have detrimental effects on health, even in populations accustomed to the extreme heat. Therefore, early warning systems which monitor heatwaves should provide the necessary warnings to the population, especially the most vulnerable groups.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hamidreza Aghababaeian
- Center for Climate Change and Health research (CCCHR), Dezful University of Medical Sciences, Dezful, Iran
- Department of Health in Emergencies and Disasters, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Abbas Ostadtaghizadeh
- Department of Health in Emergencies and Disasters, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Center for Air Pollution Research (CAPR), Institute for Environmental Research (IER), Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Ali Ardalan
- Department of Health in Emergencies and Disasters, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Ali Asgary
- Disaster and Emergency Management, School of Administrative Studies, York University, Toronto, Canada
| | - Mehry Akbary
- Department of Climatology, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran
| | - Mir Saeed Yekaninejad
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Rahim Sharafkhani
- School of Public Health, Khoy University of Medical Sciences, Khoy, Iran
| | - Carolyn Stephens
- UCL Bartlett Development Planning Unit, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
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Laohaudomchok W, Phanprasit W, Konthonbut P, Tangtong C, Sripaiboonkij P, Ikäheimo TM, Jaakkola JJK, Näyhä S. Self-Assessed Threshold Temperature for Cold among Poultry Industry Workers in Thailand. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2023; 20:2067. [PMID: 36767437 PMCID: PMC9914996 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph20032067] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/26/2022] [Revised: 01/16/2023] [Accepted: 01/20/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
The self-assessed threshold temperature for cold in the workplace is not well known. We asked 392 chicken industry workers in Thailand what they regard as the cold threshold (CT) and compared subgroups of workers using linear and quantile regressions by CT sextiles (percentiles P17, P33, P50, P67, and P83, from warmest to coldest). The variables of interest were sex, office work, and sedentary work, with age, clothing thermal insulation, and alcohol consumption as adjustment factors. The mean CT was 14.6 °C. Office workers had a 6.8 °C higher mean CT than other workers, but the difference ranged from 3.8 °C to 10.0 °C from P17 to P83. Sedentary workers had a 2.0 °C higher mean CT than others, but the difference increased from 0.5 °C to 3.0 °C through P17-P83. The mean CT did not differ between sexes, but men had a 1.6-5.0 °C higher CT at P17-P50 (>20 °C) and a 5.0 °C lower CT at P83 (<10 °C). The CT was relatively high at warm (≥10 °C), dry (relative humidity <41%), and drafty (air velocity > 0.35 m/s) worksites. We conclude that office, sedentary, and female workers and those working at warm, dry, and draughty sites are sensitive to the coldest temperatures, whereas male workers are sensitive even to moderate temperatures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wisanti Laohaudomchok
- Department of Occupational Health and Safety, Faculty of Public Health, Mahidol University, Bangkok 73170, Thailand
| | - Wantanee Phanprasit
- Department of Occupational Health and Safety, Faculty of Public Health, Mahidol University, Bangkok 73170, Thailand
| | - Pajaree Konthonbut
- Department of Occupational Health and Safety, Faculty of Public Health, Mahidol University, Bangkok 73170, Thailand
| | - Chaiyanun Tangtong
- Department of Occupational Health and Safety, Faculty of Public Health, Mahidol University, Bangkok 73170, Thailand
| | - Penpatra Sripaiboonkij
- School of Public Health, Physiotherapy and Sports Science, University College Dublin, D04 V1W8 Dublin, Ireland
| | - Tiina M. Ikäheimo
- Research Unit of Population Health, University of Oulu, 90570 Oulu, Finland
- Department of Community Medicine, University of Tromsø, 9019 Tromsø, Norway
| | | | - Simo Näyhä
- Department of Occupational Health and Safety, Faculty of Public Health, Mahidol University, Bangkok 73170, Thailand
- Research Unit of Population Health, University of Oulu, 90570 Oulu, Finland
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Xia Y, Shi C, Li Y, Jiang X, Ruan S, Gao X, Chen Y, Huang W, Li M, Xue R, Wen X, Peng X, Chen J, Zhang L. Effects of ambient temperature on mortality among elderly residents of Chengdu city in Southwest China, 2016-2020: a distributed-lag non-linear time series analysis. BMC Public Health 2023; 23:149. [PMID: 36681785 PMCID: PMC9863161 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-022-14931-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/03/2022] [Accepted: 12/22/2022] [Indexed: 01/22/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND With complex changes in the global climate, it is critical to understand how ambient temperature affects health, especially in China. We aimed to assess the effects of temperature on daily mortality, including total non-accidental, cardiovascular disease (CVD), respiratory disease, cerebrovascular disease, and ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality between 2016 and 2020 in Chengdu, China. METHODS We obtained daily temperature and mortality data for the period 2016-2020. A Poisson regression model combined with a distributed-lag nonlinear model was used to examine the association between temperature and daily mortality. We investigated the effects of individual characteristics by sex, age, education level, and marital status. RESULTS We found significant non-linear effects of temperature on total non-accidental, CVD, respiratory, cerebrovascular, and IHD mortality. Heat effects were immediate and lasted for 0-3 days, whereas cold effects persisted for 7-10 days. The relative risks associated with extreme high temperatures (99th percentile of temperature, 28 °C) over lags of 0-3 days were 1.22 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.17, 1.28) for total non-accidental mortality, 1.40 (95% CI: 1.30, 1.50) for CVD morality, 1.34 (95% CI: 1.24, 1.46) for respiratory morality, 1.33 (95% CI: 1.20, 1.47) for cerebrovascular mortality, and 1.38 (95% CI: 1.20, 1.58) for IHD mortality. The relative risks associated with extreme cold temperature (1st percentile of temperature, 3.0 °C) over lags of 0-14 days were 1.32 (95% CI: 1.19, 1.46) for total mortality, 1.45 (95% CI: 1.24, 1.68) for CVD morality, 1.28 (95% CI: 1.09, 1.50) for respiratory morality, 1.36 (95% CI: 1.09, 1.70) for cerebrovascular mortality, and 1.26 (95% CI: 0.95, 1.68) for IHD morality. We found that hot and cold affects were greater in those over 85 years of age, and that women, individuals with low education levels, and those who were widowed, divorced, or never married, were more vulnerable. CONCLUSIONS This study showed that exposure to hot and cold temperatures in Chengdu was associated with increased mortality, with people over 85 years old, women, those with low education levels, and unmarried individuals being more affected by hot and cold temperatures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yizhang Xia
- Sichuan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No.6, Zhongxue Road, Wuhou District, Chengdu, 610041 China
- School of Public Health, Chengdu Medical College, No.783, Xindu Road, Xindu District, Chengdu, 610500 China
| | - Chunli Shi
- Sichuan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No.6, Zhongxue Road, Wuhou District, Chengdu, 610041 China
| | - Yang Li
- Sichuan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No.6, Zhongxue Road, Wuhou District, Chengdu, 610041 China
| | - Xianyan Jiang
- Sichuan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No.6, Zhongxue Road, Wuhou District, Chengdu, 610041 China
| | - Shijuan Ruan
- Sichuan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No.6, Zhongxue Road, Wuhou District, Chengdu, 610041 China
| | - Xufang Gao
- Chengdu Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No.6, Longxiang Road, Wuhou District, Chengdu, 610041 China
| | - Yu Chen
- School of Public Health, Chengdu Medical College, No.783, Xindu Road, Xindu District, Chengdu, 610500 China
| | - Wei Huang
- Zigong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No.826, Huichuan Road, Ziliujing District, Zigong, 643000 China
| | - Mingjiang Li
- Panzhi Hua Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Dong District, No.996, Jichang Road617067, Panzhi Hua, China
| | - Rong Xue
- Guangyuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No.996, Binhebei RoadLizhou District, Guangyuan, 628017 China
| | - Xianying Wen
- Mianyang Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Gaoxin District, No.50, Mianxingdong Road, Mianyang, 621000 China
| | - Xiaojuan Peng
- Yaan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No.9, Fangcao Road, Yucheng District, Yaan, 625000 China
| | - Jianyu Chen
- Sichuan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No.6, Zhongxue Road, Wuhou District, Chengdu, 610041 China
| | - Li Zhang
- Sichuan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No.6, Zhongxue Road, Wuhou District, Chengdu, 610041 China
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21
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Jin J, Meng X, Wang D, Han B, Wu T, Xie J, Zhang Q, Xie D, Zhang Z. Association between ambient temperature and cardiovascular diseases related hospital admissions in Lanzhou, China. Heliyon 2023; 9:e12997. [PMID: 36747948 PMCID: PMC9898685 DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e12997] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/09/2022] [Revised: 01/04/2023] [Accepted: 01/11/2023] [Indexed: 01/19/2023] Open
Abstract
Cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains the leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide, ranking first in the global disease burden. Evidence on association between temperature and cardiovascular disease is insufficient and inconsistent in developing countries. In this study, a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was used to determine the association between daily mean temperature and cardiovascular diseases (CVD) related admission in Lanzhou 2015-2019. We included 41,389 patients with CVD in this study. The relative risk (RR) of CVD admission increased significantly with temperature in lag 5-10 days, and we found harvesting effect of temperature in the study, shown as decreased RR in lag 15-30 days. The maximum RR was 1.15 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.03-1.30), corresponding to 24 °C. Both cold and heat effects of temperature could impact the CVD admission. Compared with the 25th percentile of temperature (2 °C), the cumulative relative risk (cumRR) of extreme cold (-5 °C, the 2.5th percentile of the temperature) was 0.69 (95% CI: 0.51-0.94) in lag 0-14, whereas the cumRR of moderate cold (-2 °C, the 10th percentile) was 0.83 (95% CI:0.71-0.97). Compared with the 75th percentile of temperature (20-°C), the cumRR of extreme heat (27 °C, the 97.5th percentile) was 0.93 (95% CI: 0.78-1.10) in lag 0, whereas the cumRR of moderate heat (24 °C, the 90th percentile) was 1.01 (95% CI: 0.94-1.08). In the stratified analysis, cold decreased RR significantly in female and ≥65 years, whereas heat increased it more obviously in male and ≥65 years. Ambient temperature and CVD admissions were positively associated, with the harvesting effect. Our findings demonstrate the adaption of residents in Lanzhou to cold temperature. Public and environmental policies and measures aimed at moderate heat may minimize CVD burden effectively.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jianjian Jin
- The First Clinical Medical School, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China
| | - Xiaoxue Meng
- The First Clinical Medical School, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China
- Heart Center, The First Hospital of Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China
- Key Laboratory for Cardiovascular Disease of Gansu Province, Lanzhou, China
- Cardiovascular Clinical Research Center of Gansu Province, China
| | - Dongmei Wang
- Department of Cardiology, Zhang Ye People's Hospital Affiliated to Hexi University, Zhangye, China
| | - Bing Han
- The First Clinical Medical School, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China
- Heart Center, The First Hospital of Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China
- Key Laboratory for Cardiovascular Disease of Gansu Province, Lanzhou, China
- Cardiovascular Clinical Research Center of Gansu Province, China
| | - Tingting Wu
- The First Clinical Medical School, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China
| | - Jing Xie
- Department of Ultrasound Medicine, Lanzhou First People's Hospital, Lanzhou, China
| | - Qi Zhang
- Department of Geriatrics, Gansu Provincial People's Hospital, Lanzhou, China
| | - Dingxiong Xie
- Gansu Provincial Institute of Cardiovascular Diseases, Lanzhou, China
- The Second Clinical Medical School, Gansu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Lanzhou, China
| | - Zheng Zhang
- The First Clinical Medical School, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China
- Heart Center, The First Hospital of Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China
- Key Laboratory for Cardiovascular Disease of Gansu Province, Lanzhou, China
- Cardiovascular Clinical Research Center of Gansu Province, China
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22
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Hong JY, Kim YJ, Bae S, Kim MK. Associations of daily diet-related greenhouse gas emissions with the incidence and mortality of chronic diseases: a systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiological studies. Epidemiol Health 2022; 45:e2023011. [PMID: 36596731 PMCID: PMC10581893 DOI: 10.4178/epih.e2023011] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/18/2022] [Accepted: 12/30/2022] [Indexed: 12/31/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Although the entire process extending from food production to dietary consumption makes a large contribution to total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, little and inconsistent evidence exists on the epidemiological associations of daily diet-related GHG emissions with chronic disease risk or all-cause mortality. This systematic review and meta-analysis explored the observational epidemiological relationship between daily diet-related GHG emissions and health outcomes, including the risk of chronic diseases and all-cause mortality. METHODS Original articles published in English until May 2022 were identified by searching PubMed, Ovid-Embase, Web of Science, CINAHL, and Google Scholar. The extracted data were pooled using both fixed-effects and random-effects meta-analyses and presented as hazard and risk ratios (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS In total, 7 cohort studies (21 study arms) were included for qualitative synthesis and meta-analysis. The GHG emissions of dietary consumption showed a significant positive association with the risk of chronic disease incidence and mortality in both fixed-effects and random-effects models (fixed: RR, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.03 to 1.05; random: RR, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.02 to 1.06). This positive association was robust regardless of how daily diet-related GHG emissions were grouped. More strongly animal- based diets showed higher GHG emissions. However, there were only a few studies on specific chronic diseases, and the subgroup analysis showed insignificant results. There was no evidence of publication bias among the studies (Egger test: p=0.79). CONCLUSIONS A higher GHG-emission diet was found to be associated with a greater risk of all-cause mortality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jee Yeon Hong
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Hanyang University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
- Institute for Health and Society, Hanyang University, Seoul, Korea
| | - Young Jun Kim
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Hanyang University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
- Institute for Health and Society, Hanyang University, Seoul, Korea
| | - Sanghyuk Bae
- Department of Preventive Medicine, College of Medicine, The Catholic University of Korea, Seoul, Korea
| | - Mi Kyung Kim
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Hanyang University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
- Institute for Health and Society, Hanyang University, Seoul, Korea
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23
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Chen Y, Qin X. The Impact of Extreme Temperature Shocks on the Health Status of the Elderly in China. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2022; 19:15729. [PMID: 36497803 PMCID: PMC9738369 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph192315729] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/20/2022] [Revised: 11/10/2022] [Accepted: 11/23/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
With the accelerating process of climate change, long-term exposure to extreme temperatures could threaten individuals' physical health, especially for the vulnerable population. This paper aims to investigate the long-term effects of extreme temperature exposure on the health of the elderly in the context of climate change and aging. Different from most of the existing literature in environmental economics, we define the relative extreme temperature exposure based on the local temperature pattern. By combining a large national household survey and nationwide meteorologic historical data, this study provides empirical evidence that heat exposure days and cold exposure days during the past year both significantly affect the physical health of middle-aged and elderly groups, controlling for city, year, and individual fixed effects. The effect on individual physical health has certain seasonal characteristics and is heterogeneous across populations. Additionally, cooling and heating equipment are effective in alleviating the reverse impact of heat and cold exposure. The estimation is robust and consistent across a variety of temperature measurements and model modifications. Our findings provide evidence of the long-term and accumulative cost of extreme temperature to middle-aged and elderly human capital, contributing to helping the public to better understand the full impact of climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yanran Chen
- School of Economics, Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing 100070, China
| | - Xuezheng Qin
- School of Economics, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
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24
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Kapwata T, Gebreslasie MT, Wright CY. An analysis of past and future heatwaves based on a heat-associated mortality threshold: towards a heat health warning system. Environ Health 2022; 21:112. [PMID: 36401226 PMCID: PMC9675182 DOI: 10.1186/s12940-022-00921-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/20/2022] [Accepted: 10/21/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
Heatwaves can have severe impacts on human health extending from illness to mortality. These health effects are related to not only the physical phenomenon of heat itself but other characteristics such as frequency, intensity, and duration of heatwaves. Therefore, understanding heatwave characteristics is a crucial step in the development of heat-health warning systems (HHWS) that could prevent or reduce negative heat-related health outcomes. However, there are no South African studies that have quantified heatwaves with a threshold that incorporated a temperature metric based on a health outcome. To fill this gap, this study aimed to assess the spatial and temporal distribution and frequency of past (2014 - 2019) and future (period 2020 - 2039) heatwaves across South Africa. Heatwaves were defined using a threshold for diurnal temperature range (DTR) that was found to have measurable impacts on mortality. In the current climate, inland provinces experienced fewer heatwaves of longer duration and greater intensity compared to coastal provinces that experienced heatwaves of lower intensity. The highest frequency of heatwaves occurred during the austral summer accounting for a total of 150 events out of 270 from 2014 to 2019. The heatwave definition applied in this study also identified severe heatwaves across the country during late 2015 to early 2016 which was during the strongest El Niño event ever recorded to date. Record-breaking global temperatures were reported during this period; the North West province in South Africa was the worst affected experiencing heatwaves ranging from 12 to 77 days. Future climate analysis showed increasing trends in heatwave events with the greatest increases (80%-87%) expected to occur during summer months. The number of heatwaves occurring in cooler seasons is expected to increase with more events projected from the winter months of July and August, onwards. The findings of this study show that the identification of provinces and towns that experience intense, long-lasting heatwaves is crucial to inform development and implementation of targeted heat-health adaptation strategies. These findings could also guide authorities to prioritise vulnerable population groups such as the elderly and children living in high-risk areas likely to be affected by heatwaves.
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Affiliation(s)
- Thandi Kapwata
- Environment and Health Research Unit, South African Medical Research Council, Johannesburg, 2028, South Africa.
- Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, 0028, South Africa.
| | - Michael T Gebreslasie
- School of Agriculture, Earth, and Environmental Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, 3629, South Africa
| | - Caradee Y Wright
- Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, 0028, South Africa
- Environment and Health Research Unit, South African Medical Research Council, Pretoria, 0084, South Africa
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25
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Styler M, Singhal S, Halkidis K, Patel P, Ward KM, Jain M. The Impact of Winter Months on Venous Thromboembolism (VTE) Patients: A Retrospective Analysis of Hospital Outcomes in the United States. Cureus 2022; 14:e29091. [PMID: 36249631 PMCID: PMC9556336 DOI: 10.7759/cureus.29091] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 09/12/2022] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Objective: We aimed to analyze the Health Care Utilization Project’s (HCUP) Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) and compare mortality rates in hospitals by month to determine if there is seasonal variability in outcomes associated with venous thromboembolism (VTE). Methods: The Nationwide Inpatient Sample database was queried from 1998 to 2011. Inclusion criteria were a diagnosis of deep vein thrombosis (DVT) (ICD-9 {International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification} 453.4, 453.8) and/or VTE (ICD-9 415.1) in patients aged 18 years or more. Admission data was then analyzed to compare mortality rates in teaching and non-teaching hospitals over that time and by month. Demographics, Charlson Comorbidity Index, length of stay (LOS), hospital region, and admission types (emergent/urgent versus elective admissions) were assessed. Linear and logistic models were generated for complex survey design to analyze predictors of mortality and LOS. Results: A total of 1,449,113 DVT/VTE cases were identified in the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (weighted n= 7,150,613), 54.7% female, 56.38% white, 49% in teaching hospitals. Higher mortality was found in the months of November 6.52%, December 6.9%, January 6.94%, and February 6.93% versus overall mortality of 6.4% over 12 months. Higher mortality was noted in these winter months in all regions, along with a significantly increased LOS. Mortality in the total cohort was found to be higher in January, with odds ratio (OR) 1.11 (1.08-1.15), p<0.0001; February, OR 1.11 (1.07-1.15), p<0.0001; and December, OR 1.10 (1.06-1.14), p<0.0001 compared to June. Mortality was significantly lower in the Midwest or North Central regions (OR 0.78 {0.72-0.83}, p<0.0001) and West (OR 0.80 {0.73-0.87}, p<0.0001) compared to the Northeast. Mortality was also significantly higher in teaching hospitals than in non-teaching hospitals (OR 1.16 {1.10-1.22}, p<0.0001), with mortality trending higher in teaching hospitals each month. Emergent/urgent admission, larger hospital size, female sex, age, and urban location were also significantly associated with increased mortality. Conclusions: This national study identified an increased risk of mortality associated with hospitalizations for DVT/VTE in the winter months, independent of hospital teaching status or region.
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Wang P, Tong HW, Lee TC, Goggins WB. Projecting future temperature-related mortality using annual time series data: An example from Hong Kong. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2022; 212:113351. [PMID: 35490827 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2022.113351] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/25/2021] [Revised: 04/17/2022] [Accepted: 04/19/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Previous studies projecting future temperature-related mortality under climate change have mostly used short-term temperature-mortality associations based on daily time series data. The present study aimed to project mortality under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) in 21st century in Hong Kong by using analysis of annual data during 1976-2018. METHODS We employed a degree-days approach, calculating the sum of daily degrees above or below certain temperature threshold within a relevant historical year. The yearly age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) were regressed on annual hot and cold degree-days in quasi-Poisson generalized additive models to assess the exposure-response function that was subsequently used to calculate future changes in ASMR. The projection was performed without and with certain human adaptation assumed. RESULTS ASMRs were projected to have net increases under RCPs 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5, with increased mortality attributable to excess hot days exceeding decreases attributable to excess cold days. The average net changes under RCP8.5 was estimated to be 0.12%, 12.44%, 38.99%, and 89.25% during 2030s, 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s, respectively. Higher projected ASMRs were estimated for those aged over 75 years and for cardiovascular deaths. When human adaptation was considered, slope reduction alone under RCP4.5 and 6.0 and all adaptation assumptions under RCP8.5 might still not offset its corresponding adverse impact. CONCLUSIONS The projected decreases in cold-related mortality do not compensate for projected increases in heat-related mortality in Hong Kong. Better public adaptations strategies are warranted for coping with the adverse health impacts of climate change on a local scale.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pin Wang
- Yale Center on Climate Change and Health, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA; Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China.
| | | | | | - William B Goggins
- Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
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27
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Huang Z, Chan EYY, Wong CS, Zee BCY. Spatiotemporal relationship between temperature and non-accidental mortality: Assessing effect modification by socioeconomic status. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2022; 836:155497. [PMID: 35483463 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.155497] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/23/2021] [Revised: 04/20/2022] [Accepted: 04/20/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Most published studies have assessed the overall health impact of temperature by using one-station or multiple-station averaged meteorological and air quality data. Concern has arisen about whether the temperature health impact is homogeneous across the whole territory geographically, since green space and socioeconomic factors may modify the impact. OBJECTIVE This study aims at investigating how small-area mortality is modified by local temperature and other meteorological, air quality, green space, and socioeconomic factors of small geographic units in a subtropical urban setting. METHODS Data on meteorological, air pollutants, and non-accidental mortality count in Hong Kong during 2006-2016 were obtained. Combined with green space and socioeconomic data, spatiotemporal analysis using Generalized Additive Mixed Models was conducted to examine the temperature-mortality relationship, adjusted for seasonality, long-term trend, other meteorological factors, pollutants, socioeconomic characteristics and green space. RESULTS Socioeconomic status was found to modify the temporal temperature-mortality relationship. A J-shape association was identified for most areas in Hong Kong, where a sharp increase of mortality was observed when daily minimum temperature dropped lower than the turning point. However, for people living in the most affluent areas, after the initial increase there was a decrease of mortality for colder days. Besides, when comparing the two spatiotemporal models (i.e. using nearby or central temperature monitoring station), while leaving the other predictors unchanged, this study showed that there was little difference in the overall model performances. CONCLUSION This study indicated that the daily fluctuation of mortality was associated with daily temperature, while the spatial variation of mortality within this city could be explained by the geographical distribution of green space and socioeconomic factors. Since people living in affluent areas were found to be more tolerant of cold temperatures, it would be more efficient to tailor cold temperature health education and warning information for socioeconomically deprived communities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhe Huang
- Collaborating Centre for Oxford University and CUHK for Disaster and Medical Humanitarian Response (CCOUC), The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Emily Ying Yang Chan
- Collaborating Centre for Oxford University and CUHK for Disaster and Medical Humanitarian Response (CCOUC), The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; GX Foundation, Hong Kong, China.
| | - Chi Shing Wong
- Collaborating Centre for Oxford University and CUHK for Disaster and Medical Humanitarian Response (CCOUC), The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Benny Chung Ying Zee
- Centre for Clinical Research and Biostatistics (CCRB), The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; Office of Research and Knowledge Transfer Services (ORKTS), The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
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28
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Ahn J, Bae S, Chung BH, Myong JP, Park MY, Lim YH, Kang MY. Association of summer temperatures and acute kidney injury in South Korea: a case-crossover study. Int J Epidemiol 2022:6661204. [PMID: 35950799 DOI: 10.1093/ije/dyac163] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/12/2022] [Accepted: 08/04/2022] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Due to climate change, days with high temperatures are becoming more frequent. Although the effect of high temperature on the kidneys has been reported in research from Central and South America, Oceania, North America and Europe, evidence from Asia is still lacking. This study aimed to examine the association between short-term exposure to high temperatures and acute kidney injury (AKI) in a nationwide study in South Korea. METHODS We used representative sampling data from the 2002-2015 National Health Insurance Service-National Sample Cohort in South Korea to link the daily mean temperatures and AKI cases that occurred in the summer. We used a bidirectional case-crossover study design with 0-7 lag days before the emergency room visit for AKI. In addition, we stratified the data into six income levels to identify the susceptible population. RESULTS A total of 1706 participants were included in this study. The odds ratio (OR) per 1°C increase at 0 lag days was 1.051, and the ORs per 1°C increase at a lag of 2 days were both 1.076. The association between exposure to high temperatures and AKI was slightly greater in the low-income group (OR = 1.088; 95% CI: 1.049-1.128) than in the high-income group (OR = 1.065; 95% CI: 1.026-1.105). CONCLUSIONS In our study, a relationship between exposure to high temperatures and AKI was observed. Precautions should be taken at elevated temperatures to minimize the risk of negative health effects.
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Affiliation(s)
- Joonho Ahn
- Department of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, College of Medicine, Seoul St. Mary's Hospital, Catholic University of Korea, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Sanghyuk Bae
- Department of Preventive Medicine, College of Medicine, Catholic University of Korea, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Byung Ha Chung
- Division of Nephrology, Department of Internal Medicine, College of Medicine, Seoul St. Mary's Hospital, Catholic University of Korea, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Jun-Pyo Myong
- Department of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, College of Medicine, Seoul St. Mary's Hospital, Catholic University of Korea, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Min Young Park
- Department of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, College of Medicine, Seoul St. Mary's Hospital, Catholic University of Korea, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Youn-Hee Lim
- Section of Environmental Health, Department of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Mo-Yeol Kang
- Department of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, College of Medicine, Seoul St. Mary's Hospital, Catholic University of Korea, Seoul, Republic of Korea
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Dasgupta A, Bakshi A, Mukherjee S, Das K, Talukdar S, Chatterjee P, Mondal S, Das P, Ghosh S, Som A, Roy P, Kundu R, Sarkar A, Biswas A, Paul K, Basak S, Manna K, Saha C, Mukhopadhyay S, Bhattacharyya NP, De RK. Epidemiological challenges in pandemic coronavirus disease (COVID-19): Role of artificial intelligence. WILEY INTERDISCIPLINARY REVIEWS. DATA MINING AND KNOWLEDGE DISCOVERY 2022; 12:e1462. [PMID: 35942397 PMCID: PMC9350133 DOI: 10.1002/widm.1462] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/04/2020] [Revised: 03/28/2022] [Accepted: 04/28/2022] [Indexed: 05/02/2023]
Abstract
World is now experiencing a major health calamity due to the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus clade 2. The foremost challenge facing the scientific community is to explore the growth and transmission capability of the virus. Use of artificial intelligence (AI), such as deep learning, in (i) rapid disease detection from x-ray or computed tomography (CT) or high-resolution CT (HRCT) images, (ii) accurate prediction of the epidemic patterns and their saturation throughout the globe, (iii) forecasting the disease and psychological impact on the population from social networking data, and (iv) prediction of drug-protein interactions for repurposing the drugs, has attracted much attention. In the present study, we describe the role of various AI-based technologies for rapid and efficient detection from CT images complementing quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction and immunodiagnostic assays. AI-based technologies to anticipate the current pandemic pattern, prevent the spread of disease, and face mask detection are also discussed. We inspect how the virus transmits depending on different factors. We investigate the deep learning technique to assess the affinity of the most probable drugs to treat COVID-19. This article is categorized under:Application Areas > Health CareAlgorithmic Development > Biological Data MiningTechnologies > Machine Learning.
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Affiliation(s)
- Abhijit Dasgupta
- Department of Data Science, School of Interdisciplinary StudiesUniversity of Kalyani, KalyaniNadiaWest BengalIndia
| | - Abhisek Bakshi
- Department of Information TechnologyBengal Institute of TechnologyKolkataWest BengalIndia
| | - Srijani Mukherjee
- Department of Data Science, School of Interdisciplinary StudiesUniversity of Kalyani, KalyaniNadiaWest BengalIndia
| | - Kuntal Das
- Department of Data Science, School of Interdisciplinary StudiesUniversity of Kalyani, KalyaniNadiaWest BengalIndia
| | - Soumyajeet Talukdar
- Department of Data Science, School of Interdisciplinary StudiesUniversity of Kalyani, KalyaniNadiaWest BengalIndia
| | - Pratyayee Chatterjee
- Department of Data Science, School of Interdisciplinary StudiesUniversity of Kalyani, KalyaniNadiaWest BengalIndia
| | - Sagnik Mondal
- Department of Data Science, School of Interdisciplinary StudiesUniversity of Kalyani, KalyaniNadiaWest BengalIndia
| | - Puspita Das
- Department of Data Science, School of Interdisciplinary StudiesUniversity of Kalyani, KalyaniNadiaWest BengalIndia
| | - Subhrojit Ghosh
- Department of Data Science, School of Interdisciplinary StudiesUniversity of Kalyani, KalyaniNadiaWest BengalIndia
| | - Archisman Som
- Department of Data Science, School of Interdisciplinary StudiesUniversity of Kalyani, KalyaniNadiaWest BengalIndia
| | - Pritha Roy
- Department of Data Science, School of Interdisciplinary StudiesUniversity of Kalyani, KalyaniNadiaWest BengalIndia
| | - Rima Kundu
- Department of Data Science, School of Interdisciplinary StudiesUniversity of Kalyani, KalyaniNadiaWest BengalIndia
| | - Akash Sarkar
- Department of Data Science, School of Interdisciplinary StudiesUniversity of Kalyani, KalyaniNadiaWest BengalIndia
| | - Arnab Biswas
- Department of Data Science, School of Interdisciplinary StudiesUniversity of Kalyani, KalyaniNadiaWest BengalIndia
| | - Karnelia Paul
- Department of BiotechnologyUniversity of CalcuttaKolkataWest BengalIndia
| | - Sujit Basak
- Department of Physiology and BiophysicsStony Brook UniversityStony BrookNew YorkUSA
| | - Krishnendu Manna
- Department of Food and NutritionUniversity of Kalyani, KalyaniNadiaWest BengalIndia
| | - Chinmay Saha
- Department of Genome Science, School of Interdisciplinary StudiesUniversity of Kalyani, KalyaniNadiaWest BengalIndia
| | - Satinath Mukhopadhyay
- Department of Endocrinology and MetabolismInstitute of Post Graduate Medical Education and Research and Seth Sukhlal Karnani Memorial HospitalKolkataWest BengalIndia
| | - Nitai P. Bhattacharyya
- Department of Endocrinology and MetabolismInstitute of Post Graduate Medical Education and Research and Seth Sukhlal Karnani Memorial HospitalKolkataWest BengalIndia
| | - Rajat K. De
- Machine Intelligence UnitIndian Statistical InstituteKolkataWest BengalIndia
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Narimani N, Karimi A, Brown RD. Effects of street orientation and tree species thermal comfort within urban canyons in a hot, dry climate. ECOL INFORM 2022. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecoinf.2022.101671] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
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Gasparrini A, Masselot P, Scortichini M, Schneider R, Mistry MN, Sera F, Macintyre HL, Phalkey R, Vicedo-Cabrera AM. Small-area assessment of temperature-related mortality risks in England and Wales: a case time series analysis. Lancet Planet Health 2022; 6:e557-e564. [PMID: 35809585 DOI: 10.1016/s2542-5196(22)00138-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 61] [Impact Index Per Article: 20.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/14/2021] [Revised: 05/13/2022] [Accepted: 05/16/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Epidemiological literature on the health risks associated with non-optimal temperature has mostly reported average estimates across large areas or specific population groups. However, the heterogeneous distribution of drivers of vulnerability can result in local differences in health risks associated with heat and cold. We aimed to analyse the association between ambient air temperature and all-cause mortality across England and Wales and characterise small scale patterns in temperature-related mortality risks and impacts. METHODS We performed a country-wide small-area analysis using data on all-cause mortality and air temperature for 34 753 lower super output areas (LSOAs) within 348 local authority districts (LADs) across England and Wales between Jan 1, 2000, and Dec 31, 2019. We first performed a case time series analysis of LSOA-specific and age-specific mortality series matched with 1 × 1 km gridded temperature data using distributed lag non-linear models, and then a repeated-measure multivariate meta-regression to pool LAD-specific estimates using area-level climatological, socioeconomic, and topographical predictors. FINDINGS The final analysis included 10 716 879 deaths from all causes. The small-area assessment estimated that each year in England and Wales, there was on average 791 excess deaths (empirical 95% CI 611-957) attributable to heat and 60 573 (55 796-65 145) attributable to cold, corresponding to standardised excess mortality rates of 1·57 deaths (empirical 95% CI 1·21-1·90) per 100 000 person-years for heat and 122·34 deaths (112·90-131·52) per 100 000 person-years for cold. The risks increased with age and were highly heterogeneous geographically, with the minimum mortality temperature ranging from 14·9°C to 22·6°C. Heat-related mortality was higher in urban areas, whereas cold-related mortality showed a more nuanced geographical pattern and increased risk in areas with greater socioeconomic deprivation. INTERPRETATION This study provides a comprehensive assessment of excess mortality related to non-optimal outdoor temperature, with several risk indicators reported by age and multiple geographical levels. The analysis provides detailed risk maps that are useful for designing effective public health and climate policies at both local and national levels. FUNDING Medical Research Council, Natural Environment Research Council, EU Horizon 2020 Programme, National Institute of Health Research.
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Affiliation(s)
- Antonio Gasparrini
- Department of Public Health, Environment, and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Centre for Statistical Methodology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
| | - Pierre Masselot
- Department of Public Health, Environment, and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | | | - Rochelle Schneider
- Department of Public Health, Environment, and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Φ-Lab, European Space Agency, Frascati, Italy; Department of Forecasts, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast, Reading, UK
| | - Malcolm N Mistry
- Department of Public Health, Environment, and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Department of Economics, Ca' Foscari University of Venice, Venice, Italy
| | - Francesco Sera
- Department of Public Health, Environment, and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Department of Statistics, Computer Science and Applications "G. Parenti", University of Florence, Florence, Italy
| | - Helen L Macintyre
- Climate Change and Health Unit, UK Health Security Agency, Chilton, UK; School of Geography, Earth, and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
| | - Revati Phalkey
- Climate Change and Health Unit, UK Health Security Agency, Chilton, UK; Division of Epidemiology and Public Health, School of Medicine, University of Nottingham City Hospital, Nottingham, UK; Heidelberg Institute for Global Health, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
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Zhang R, Zhang N, Sun W, Lin H, Liu Y, Zhang T, Tao M, Sun J, Ling F, Wang Z. Analysis of the effect of meteorological factors on hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Taizhou City, China, 2008–2020. BMC Public Health 2022; 22:1097. [PMID: 35650552 PMCID: PMC9161505 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-022-13423-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/18/2022] [Accepted: 05/13/2022] [Indexed: 04/06/2023] Open
Abstract
Abstract
Background
Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is endemic in Zhejiang Province, China, while few studies have concentrated on the influence of meteorological factors on HFRS incidence in the area.
Methods
Data on HFRS and meteorological factors from January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2020 in Taizhou City, Zhejiang Province were collected. Multivariate analysis was conducted to the relationship between meteorological factors including minimum temperatures, relative humidity, and cumulative rainfall with HFRS.
Results
The HFRS incidence peaked in November and December and it was negatively correlated with average and highest average temperatures. Compared with median of meteorological factors, the relative risks (RR) of weekly average temperature at 12 ℃, weekly highest temperature at 18 ℃relative humidity at 40%, and cumulative rainfall at 240 mm were most significant and RRs were 1.41 (95% CI: 1.09–1.82), 1.32 (95% CI: 1.05–1.66), 2.18 (95% CI: 1.16–4.07), and 1.91 (95% CI: 1.16–2.73), respectively. Average temperature, precipitation, relative humidity had interactions on HFRS and the risk of HFRS occurrence increased with the decrease of average temperature and the increase of precipitation.
Conclusion
Our study results are indicative of the association of environmental factors with the HFRS incidence, probable recommendation could be use of environmental factors as early warning signals for initiating the control measure and response.
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Ma Y, Wang H, Cheng B, Shen J, Li H, Guo Y, Cheng Y. Health risk of extreme low temperature on respiratory diseases in western China. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2022; 29:35760-35767. [PMID: 35060041 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-021-18194-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/28/2021] [Accepted: 12/14/2021] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
Previous studies have reported that daily average temperature is connected with respiratory diseases (RD), but proof is limited for the influence of the extreme low temperature on RD in Lanzhou, a northwestern China of temperate area. Generalized additive model (GAM) was built in this work to describe the relationship between daily mean temperature and RD in Lanzhou, China from 2012 to 2017. The results indicated that the exposure-response curve was inverse J-shaped, showing the lower the temperature, the larger the relative risk (RR). The RR of daily emergency room (ER) admissions in P5 extreme low temperature (the temperature below the fifth percentile, etc.) was larger than that in P10. The P5 extreme low temperature has the strongest effect at lag 0, and the RRs were 1.043 (95% CI: 1.030, 1.055) for the total, 1.031 (95% CI: 1.015, 1.046) for males and 1.058 (95% CI: 1.039, 1.077) for females. For different age groups, the largest RRs were 1.026 (95% CI: 1.013, 1.039) for the children (age < 16 years) at lag 5, 1.057 (95% CI: 1.030, 1.085) for the young adults (aged 16-45 years), 1.060 (95% CI: 1.023, 1.099) for the middle-aged (aged 46-60 years) and 1.121 (95% CI: 1.077, 1.166) for the elderly group of age > 60 years. Meanwhile, females and the elderly were more vulnerable to extreme temperature. The results could strengthen the scientific evidence of effects of extreme low temperature on RD in temperate areas.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yuxia Ma
- College of Atmospheric Sciences, Key Laboratory of Semi-Arid Climate Change, Ministry of Education, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China.
| | - Hang Wang
- College of Atmospheric Sciences, Key Laboratory of Semi-Arid Climate Change, Ministry of Education, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China
| | - Bowen Cheng
- College of Atmospheric Sciences, Key Laboratory of Semi-Arid Climate Change, Ministry of Education, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China
| | - Jiahui Shen
- College of Atmospheric Sciences, Key Laboratory of Semi-Arid Climate Change, Ministry of Education, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China
| | - Heping Li
- College of Atmospheric Sciences, Key Laboratory of Semi-Arid Climate Change, Ministry of Education, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China
| | - Yongtao Guo
- College of Atmospheric Sciences, Key Laboratory of Semi-Arid Climate Change, Ministry of Education, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China
| | - Yifan Cheng
- College of Atmospheric Sciences, Key Laboratory of Semi-Arid Climate Change, Ministry of Education, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China
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Abrignani MG, Lombardo A, Braschi A, Renda N, Abrignani V. Climatic influences on cardiovascular diseases. World J Cardiol 2022; 14:152-169. [PMID: 35432772 PMCID: PMC8968453 DOI: 10.4330/wjc.v14.i3.152] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/16/2021] [Revised: 08/23/2021] [Accepted: 03/06/2022] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Abstract
Classical risk factors only partially account for variations in cardiovascular disease incidence; therefore, also other so far unknown features, among which meteorological factors, may influence heart diseases (mainly coronary heart diseases, but also heart failure, arrhythmias, aortic dissection and stroke) rates. The most studied phenomenon is ambient temperature. The relation between mortality, as well as cardiovascular diseases incidence, and temperature appears graphically as a ''U'' shape. Exposure to cold, heat and heat waves is associated with an increased risk of acute coronary syndromes. Other climatic variables, such as humidity, atmospheric pressure, sunlight hours, wind strength and direction and rain/snow precipitations have been hypothesized as related to fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular diseases incidence. Main limitation of these studies is the unavailability of data on individual exposure to weather parameters. Effects of weather may vary depending on other factors, such as population disease profile and age structure. Climatic stress may increase direct and indirect risks to human health via different, complex pathophysiological pathways and exogenous and endogenous mechanisms. These data have attracted growing interest because of the recent earth's climate change, with consequent increasing ambient temperatures and climatic fluctuations. This review evaluates the evidence base for cardiac health consequences of climate conditions, and it also explores potential further implications.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maurizio Giuseppe Abrignani
- Operative Unit of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, S. Antonio Abate Hospital of Trapani, ASP Trapani, Trapani 91100, Italy.
| | - Alberto Lombardo
- Operative Unit of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, S. Antonio Abate Hospital of Trapani, ASP Trapani, Trapani 91100, Italy
| | - Annabella Braschi
- Department of Internal Medicine, Department of Psychology, Educational Science and Human Movement, University of Palermo, Palermo 90100, Italy
| | - Nicolò Renda
- Department of Mental Health, ASP Trapani, Trapani 91100, Italy
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Ingole V, Sheridan SC, Juvekar S, Achebak H, Moraga P. Mortality risk attributable to high and low ambient temperature in Pune city, India: A time series analysis from 2004 to 2012. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2022; 204:112304. [PMID: 34743894 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2021.112304] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/16/2021] [Revised: 10/24/2021] [Accepted: 10/26/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Exposure to high and low ambient temperatures is associated with morbidity and mortality across the globe. Most of these studies assessing the effects of non-optimum temperatures on health and have been conducted in the developed world, whereas in India, the limited evidence on ambient temperature and health risks and has focused mostly on the effects of heat waves. Here we quantify short term association between all temperatures and mortality in urban Pune, India. METHODS We applied a time series regression model to derive temperature-mortality associations based on daily mean temperature and all-cause mortality records of Pune city from year January 2004 to December 2012. We estimated high and low temperature-mortality relationships by using standard time series quasi-Poisson regression in conjunction with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM). We calculated temperature attributable mortality fractions for total heat and total cold. FINDINGS The analysis provides estimates of the total mortality burden attributable to ambient temperature. Overall, 6∙5% [95%CI 1.76-11∙43] of deaths registered in the observational period were attributed to non-optimal temperatures, cold effect was greater 5.72% [95%CI 0∙70-10∙06] than heat 0∙84% [0∙35-1∙34]. The gender stratified analysis revealed that the highest burden among men both for heat and cold. CONCLUSION Non-optimal temperatures are associated with a substantial mortality burden. Our findings could benefit national, and local communities in developing preparedness and prevention strategies to reduce weather-related impacts immediately due to climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Vijendra Ingole
- Computer, Electrical and Mathematical Sciences and Engineering Division, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal, 23955-6900, Saudi Arabia.
| | - Scott C Sheridan
- Department of Geography, Kent State University, Kent, OH, 44242, USA
| | - Sanjay Juvekar
- Vadu Rural Health Program, KEM Hospital Research Centre, Pune, India
| | | | - Paula Moraga
- Computer, Electrical and Mathematical Sciences and Engineering Division, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal, 23955-6900, Saudi Arabia
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The Thermal Environment of Housing and Its Implications for the Health of Older People in South Australia: A Mixed-Methods Study. ATMOSPHERE 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/atmos13010096] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/06/2023]
Abstract
Older people are often over-represented in morbidity and mortality statistics associated with hot and cold weather, despite remaining mostly indoors. The study “Improving thermal environment of housing for older Australians” focused on assessing the relationships between the indoor environment, building characteristics, thermal comfort and perceived health/wellbeing of older South Australians over a study period that included the warmest summer on record. Our findings showed that indoor temperatures in some of the houses reached above 35 °C. With concerns about energy costs, occupants often use adaptive behaviours to achieve thermal comfort instead of using cooling (or heating), although feeling less satisfied with the thermal environment and perceiving health/wellbeing to worsen at above 28 °C (and below 15 °C). Symptoms experienced during hot weather included tiredness, shortness of breath, sleeplessness and dizziness, with coughs and colds, painful joints, shortness of breath and influenza experienced during cold weather. To express the influence of temperature and humidity on perceived health/wellbeing, a Temperature Humidity Health Index (THHI) was developed for this cohort. A health/wellbeing perception of “very good” is achieved between an 18.4 °C and 24.3 °C indoor operative temperature and a 55% relative humidity. The evidence from this research is used to inform guidelines about maintaining home environments to be conducive to the health/wellbeing of older people.
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Scripcă AS, Acquaotta F, Croitoru AE, Fratianni S. The impact of extreme temperatures on human mortality in the most populated cities of Romania. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2022; 66:189-199. [PMID: 34739588 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-021-02206-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/21/2020] [Revised: 10/04/2021] [Accepted: 10/11/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
The impact of extreme weather conditions on humans is one of the most important topics in biometeorology studies. The main objective of this study is to analyze the relationship between temperature-related weather conditions and natural mortality in the five most populated cities of Romania, namely, Bucharest, Cluj-Napoca, Constanța, Iași, and Timișoara. The results of this study aim to bridge a gap in national research. In the present paper, we used daily natural mortality data and daily minimum and maximum air temperatures. The distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) allowed us to identify weather conditions associated with natural mortality. The most important results are as follows: (i) a higher daily mortality is related to a high frequency of heat stress conditions; (ii) a higher maximum temperature increases the relative risk (RR) of natural mortality; (iii) the maximum number of fatalities is recorded on the first day of high-temperature events; and (iv) individuals much more easily adapt to cold stress conditions. The main conclusion in this study is that the inhabitants of the most populated cities in Romania are more sensitive to high-temperature stress than to low-temperature stress.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andreea-Sabina Scripcă
- Doctoral School of Geography, Babeș-Bolyai University, 5-7, Clinicilor Street, 400006, Cluj-Napoca, Romania
| | - Fiorella Acquaotta
- Department of Earth Sciences, University of Turin, Via Valperga Caluso 35, 10125, Turin, Italy
- Centro Interdipartimentale Sui Rischi Naturali in Ambiente Montano E Collinare, NatRisk University of Turin, Turin, Italy
| | - Adina-Eliza Croitoru
- Department of Physical and Technical Geography, Babeș-Bolyai University, 5-7, Clinicilor Street, 400006, Cluj-Napoca, Romania.
- Research Centre for Sustainable Development, Babeș-Bolyai University, 5-7, Clinicilor Street, 400006, Cluj-Napoca, Romania.
| | - Simona Fratianni
- Department of Earth Sciences, University of Turin, Via Valperga Caluso 35, 10125, Turin, Italy
- Centro Interdipartimentale Sui Rischi Naturali in Ambiente Montano E Collinare, NatRisk University of Turin, Turin, Italy
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Chaichana K, Kitro A, Chaidee S, Rojsiraphisal T. The potential effects of temperature on outpatient visits: a case study in Chiang Mai, Thailand. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2021; 28:64431-64439. [PMID: 34312756 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-021-15512-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/07/2021] [Accepted: 07/15/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Climate change is a crucial cause of health issues, as reported in many studies. Temperature is one of the important factors related to extreme weather. Chiang Mai, the center of the north of Thailand, is also affected by temperature changes that have led to many outpatient visits. Better information will help the health service to be well-prepared. This research applied typical meteorological data and solar radiation into the distributed lag nonlinear model and a quasi-Poisson regression model. The "hot effect" and "cold effect" on outpatient visits caused by respiratory diseases, dermatophytosis, and intestinal infectious diseases in a public Chiang Mai hospital between January 2015 and December 2019 were then investigated. Of the 185,202 cases, results showed that all of the diseases mentioned had more than 10% of relative risk (RR) in cold effects. However, the RR of dermatophytosis was found to be 114%, a very high risk. In the case of hot effects, the patients of the age 19-29 have relatively high RR over 20% for respiratory diseases and dermatophytosis. It was also observed that cold effects lasted longer than hot effects.
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Affiliation(s)
- Khuanchanok Chaichana
- Advanced Research Center for Computational Simulation, Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, 50200, Thailand.
- Centre of Excellence in Mathematics, CHE, Si Ayutthaya Rd., Bangkok, 10400, Thailand.
| | - Amornphat Kitro
- Department of Communication Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, 50200, Thailand
| | - Supanut Chaidee
- Advanced Research Center for Computational Simulation, Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, 50200, Thailand
- Centre of Excellence in Mathematics, CHE, Si Ayutthaya Rd., Bangkok, 10400, Thailand
| | - Thaned Rojsiraphisal
- Advanced Research Center for Computational Simulation, Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, 50200, Thailand
- Centre of Excellence in Mathematics, CHE, Si Ayutthaya Rd., Bangkok, 10400, Thailand
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Yatim ANM, Latif MT, Sofwan NM, Ahamad F, Khan MF, Mahiyuddin WRW, Sahani M. The association between temperature and cause-specific mortality in the Klang Valley, Malaysia. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2021; 28:60209-60220. [PMID: 34156627 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-021-14962-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/30/2021] [Accepted: 06/13/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
This study aims to examine the relationship between daily temperature and mortality in the Klang Valley, Malaysia, over the period 2006-2015. A quasi-Poisson generalized linear model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was used to estimate the association between the mean temperature and mortality categories (natural n=69,542, cardiovascular n= 15,581, and respiratory disease n=10,119). Particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter below 10 μm (PM10) and surface ozone (O3) was adjusted as a potential confounding factor. The relative risk (RR) of natural mortality associated with extreme cold temperature (1st percentile of temperature, 25.2 °C) over lags 0-28 days was 1.26 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.00, 1.60), compared with the minimum mortality temperature (28.2 °C). The relative risk associated with extremely hot temperature (99th percentile of temperature, 30.2 °C) over lags 0-3 days was 1.09 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.17). Heat effects were immediate whereas cold effects were delayed and lasted longer. People with respiratory diseases, the elderly, and women were the most vulnerable groups when it came to the effects of extremely high temperatures. Extreme temperatures did not dramatically change the temperature-mortality risk estimates made before and after adjustments for air pollutant (PM10 and O3) levels.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ahmad Norazhar Mohd Yatim
- Space Science Centre (ANGKASA), Institute of Climate Change, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600, Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia
- Faculty of Science and Natural Resources, Universiti Malaysia Sabah, 88400, Kota Kinabalu, Sabah, Malaysia
| | - Mohd Talib Latif
- Department of Earth Sciences and Environment, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600, Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia.
| | - Nurzawani Md Sofwan
- Department of Earth Sciences and Environment, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600, Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia
- Department of Environmental Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, Universiti Teknologi Mara, Sarawak Branch, Samarahan Campus, 94300, Kota Samarahan, Sarawak, Malaysia
| | - Fatimah Ahamad
- AQ Expert Solutions, Jalan Dato Muda Linggi, 70100, Seremban, Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia
| | - Md Firoz Khan
- Department of Chemistry, Faculty of Science, University of Malaya, 50603, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
| | - Wan Rozita Wan Mahiyuddin
- Climate Change Unit, Environmental Health Research Center, Institute for Medical Research, Level 2, Block C6, National Institute of Health, Jalan Setia Murni U13/52, Setia Alam, 40170, Shah Alam, Selangor, Malaysia
| | - Mazrura Sahani
- Center for Toxicology and Health Risk Studies, Faculty of Health Sciences, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Jalan Raja Muda Abdul Aziz, 50300, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
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Tian H, Zhou Y, Wang Z, Huang X, Ge E, Wu S, Wang P, Tong X, Ran P, Luo M. Effects of high-frequency temperature variabilities on the morbidity of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: Evidence in 21 cities of Guangdong, South China. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2021; 201:111544. [PMID: 34157271 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2021.111544] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/04/2021] [Revised: 06/14/2021] [Accepted: 06/15/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND While temperature changes have been confirmed as one of the contributory factors affecting human health, the association between high-frequency temperature variability (HFTV, i.e., temperature variation at short time scales such as 1, 2, and 5 days) and the hospitalization of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) was rarely reported. OBJECTIVES To evaluate the associations between high-frequency temperature variabilities (i.e., at 1, 2, and 5-day scales) and daily COPD hospitalization. METHODS We collected daily records of COPD hospitalization and meteorological variables from 2013 to 2017 in 21 cities of Guangdong Province, South China. A quasi-Poisson regression with a distributed lag nonlinear model was first employed to quantify the effects of two HFTV measures, i.e., the day-to-day (DTD) temperature change and the intraday-interday temperature variability (IITV), on COPD morbidity for each city. Second, we used multivariate meta-analysis to pool the city-specific estimates, and stratified analyses were performed by age and sex to identify vulnerable groups. Then, the meta-regression with city-level characteristics was employed to detect the potential sources of the differences among 21 cities. RESULTS A monotonic increasing curve of the overall exposure-response association was observed, suggesting that positive HFTV (i.e., increased DTD and IITV) will significantly increase the risk of COPD admission. Negative DTD was associated with reduced COPD morbidity while positive DTD elevated the COPD risk. An interquartile range (IQR) increase in DTD was associated with a 24% (95% CI: 12-38%) increase in COPD admissions. An IQR increase in IITV0-1 was associated with 18% (95% CI: 7-27%) increase in COPD admissions. Males and people aged 0-64 years appeared to be more vulnerable to the DTD effect than others. Potential sources of the disparity among different cities include urbanization level, sex structure, industry structure, gross domestic product (GDP), health care services, and air quality. CONCLUSIONS The increases of DTD and IITV have significant adverse impacts on COPD hospitalization. As climate change intensifies, precautions need to be taken to mitigate the impacts of high-frequency temperature changes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hao Tian
- School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Yumin Zhou
- National Center for Respiratory Medicine, State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease & National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Disease, Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, the First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Zihui Wang
- National Center for Respiratory Medicine, State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease & National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Disease, Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, the First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Xiaoliang Huang
- Department of Health of Guangdong Province, Government Affairs Service Center of Health Commission of Guangdong Province, Guangzhou, China
| | - Erjia Ge
- Division of Epidemiology, Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Canada
| | - Sijia Wu
- School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Peng Wang
- School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Xuelin Tong
- School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Pixin Ran
- National Center for Respiratory Medicine, State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease & National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Disease, Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, the First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, China.
| | - Ming Luo
- School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
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Nix E, Taylor J, Das P, Ucci M, Chalabi Z, Shrubsole C, Davies M, Mavrogianni A, Milner J, Wilkinson P. Housing, health and energy: a characterisation of risks and priorities across Delhi's diverse settlements. CITIES & HEALTH 2021; 5:298-319. [PMID: 39411509 PMCID: PMC7616699 DOI: 10.1080/23748834.2020.1800161] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/01/2019] [Accepted: 07/16/2020] [Indexed: 10/19/2024]
Abstract
Improved housing has the potential to advance health and contribute to the Sustainable Development Goals. Research examining housing, health and energy use in low-income countries is limited; understanding these connections is vital to inform interventions for healthy sustainable human settlements. This paper investigates the low-income setting of Delhi, where rapid urbanisation, a varied climate, high pollution levels, and a wide variation in housing quality could result in significant energy use and health risks. Drawing on approaches from health and the built environment and existing data and literature, a characterisation of energy use and health risks for Delhi's housing stock is completed. Four broad settlement types were used to classify Delhi housing and energy use calculations and health risk assessment were performed for each variant. Energy use is estimated to be nearly two times higher per household among planned housing compared with other settlement types. Health risks, however, are found to be largest within informal slum settlements, with important contributions from heat and particulate matter across all settlements. This paper highlights intervention priorities and outlines the need for extensive further research, particularly through data gathering, to establish evidence to accelerate achieving healthy, sustainable and equitable housing in Delhi.
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Affiliation(s)
- Emily Nix
- UCL Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, University College London, London, UK
| | - Jonathon Taylor
- UCL Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, University College London, London, UK
- Department of Civil Engineering, Tampere University, Tampere, Finland
| | - Payel Das
- UCL Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, University College London, London, UK
- Department of Physics, University of Surrey, Guildford, UK
| | - Marcella Ucci
- UCL Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, University College London, London, UK
| | - Zaid Chalabi
- UCL Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, University College London, London, UK
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Clive Shrubsole
- UCL Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, University College London, London, UK
- Air Quality & Public Health Group, Environmental Hazards and Emergencies Dept, Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Public Health England, Chilton, UK
| | - Michael Davies
- UCL Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, University College London, London, UK
| | - Anna Mavrogianni
- UCL Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, University College London, London, UK
| | - James Milner
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Paul Wilkinson
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
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Burkart KG, Brauer M, Aravkin AY, Godwin WW, Hay SI, He J, Iannucci VC, Larson SL, Lim SS, Liu J, Murray CJL, Zheng P, Zhou M, Stanaway JD. Estimating the cause-specific relative risks of non-optimal temperature on daily mortality: a two-part modelling approach applied to the Global Burden of Disease Study. Lancet 2021; 398:685-697. [PMID: 34419204 PMCID: PMC8387975 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(21)01700-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 177] [Impact Index Per Article: 44.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/20/2020] [Revised: 07/15/2021] [Accepted: 07/20/2021] [Indexed: 01/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Associations between high and low temperatures and increases in mortality and morbidity have been previously reported, yet no comprehensive assessment of disease burden has been done. Therefore, we aimed to estimate the global and regional burden due to non-optimal temperature exposure. METHODS In part 1 of this study, we linked deaths to daily temperature estimates from the ERA5 reanalysis dataset. We modelled the cause-specific relative risks for 176 individual causes of death along daily temperature and 23 mean temperature zones using a two-dimensional spline within a Bayesian meta-regression framework. We then calculated the cause-specific and total temperature-attributable burden for the countries for which daily mortality data were available. In part 2, we applied cause-specific relative risks from part 1 to all locations globally. We combined exposure-response curves with daily gridded temperature and calculated the cause-specific burden based on the underlying burden of disease from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study, for the years 1990-2019. Uncertainty from all components of the modelling chain, including risks, temperature exposure, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels, defined as the temperature of minimum mortality across all included causes, was propagated using posterior simulation of 1000 draws. FINDINGS We included 64·9 million individual International Classification of Diseases-coded deaths from nine different countries, occurring between Jan 1, 1980, and Dec 31, 2016. 17 causes of death met the inclusion criteria. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, cardiomyopathy and myocarditis, hypertensive heart disease, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, lower respiratory infection, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease showed J-shaped relationships with daily temperature, whereas the risk of external causes (eg, homicide, suicide, drowning, and related to disasters, mechanical, transport, and other unintentional injuries) increased monotonically with temperature. The theoretical minimum risk exposure levels varied by location and year as a function of the underlying cause of death composition. Estimates for non-optimal temperature ranged from 7·98 deaths (95% uncertainty interval 7·10-8·85) per 100 000 and a population attributable fraction (PAF) of 1·2% (1·1-1·4) in Brazil to 35·1 deaths (29·9-40·3) per 100 000 and a PAF of 4·7% (4·3-5·1) in China. In 2019, the average cold-attributable mortality exceeded heat-attributable mortality in all countries for which data were available. Cold effects were most pronounced in China with PAFs of 4·3% (3·9-4·7) and attributable rates of 32·0 deaths (27·2-36·8) per 100 000 and in New Zealand with 3·4% (2·9-3·9) and 26·4 deaths (22·1-30·2). Heat effects were most pronounced in China with PAFs of 0·4% (0·3-0·6) and attributable rates of 3·25 deaths (2·39-4·24) per 100 000 and in Brazil with 0·4% (0·3-0·5) and 2·71 deaths (2·15-3·37). When applying our framework to all countries globally, we estimated that 1·69 million (1·52-1·83) deaths were attributable to non-optimal temperature globally in 2019. The highest heat-attributable burdens were observed in south and southeast Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and North Africa and the Middle East, and the highest cold-attributable burdens in eastern and central Europe, and central Asia. INTERPRETATION Acute heat and cold exposure can increase or decrease the risk of mortality for a diverse set of causes of death. Although in most regions cold effects dominate, locations with high prevailing temperatures can exhibit substantial heat effects far exceeding cold-attributable burden. Particularly, a high burden of external causes of death contributed to strong heat impacts, but cardiorespiratory diseases and metabolic diseases could also be substantial contributors. Changes in both exposures and the composition of causes of death drove changes in risk over time. Steady increases in exposure to the risk of high temperature are of increasing concern for health. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Katrin G Burkart
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
| | - Michael Brauer
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; School of Population and Public Health, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - Aleksandr Y Aravkin
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - William W Godwin
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Simon I Hay
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Jaiwei He
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Vincent C Iannucci
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Samantha L Larson
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Stephen S Lim
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Jiangmei Liu
- Non-Communicable Disease Center, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Christopher J L Murray
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Peng Zheng
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Maigeng Zhou
- Non-Communicable Disease Center, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Jeffrey D Stanaway
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
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A heat-health watch and warning system with extended season and evolving thresholds. BMC Public Health 2021; 21:1479. [PMID: 34325687 PMCID: PMC8320165 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-021-10982-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/24/2020] [Accepted: 05/05/2021] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Many countries have developed heat-health watch and warning systems (HHWWS) or early-warning systems to mitigate the health consequences of extreme heat events. HHWWS usually focuses on the four hottest months of the year and imposes the same threshold over these months. However, according to climate projections, the warm season is expected to extend and/or shift. Some studies demonstrated that health impacts of heat waves are more severe when the human body is not acclimatized to the heat. In order to adapt those systems to potential heat waves occurring outside the hottest months of the season, this study proposes specific health-based monthly heat indicators and thresholds over an extended season from April to October in the northern hemisphere. METHODS The proposed approach, an adoption and extension of the HHWWS methodology currently implemented in Quebec (Canada). The latter is developed and applied to the Greater Montreal area (current population 4.3 million) based on historical health and meteorological data over the years. This approach consists of determining excess mortality episodes and then choosing monthly indicators and thresholds that may involve excess mortality. RESULTS We obtain thresholds for the maximum and minimum temperature couple (in °C) that range from (respectively, 23 and 12) in April, to (32 and 21) in July and back to (25 and 13) in October. The resulting HHWWS is flexible, with health-related thresholds taking into account the seasonality and the monthly variability of temperatures over an extended summer season. CONCLUSIONS This adaptive and more realistic system has the potential to prevent, by data-driven health alerts, heat-related mortality outside the typical July-August months of heat waves. The proposed methodology is general and can be applied to other regions and situations based on their characteristics.
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Gutiérrez‐Avila I, Arfer KB, Wong S, Rush J, Kloog I, Just AC. A spatiotemporal reconstruction of daily ambient temperature using satellite data in the Megalopolis of Central Mexico from 2003 to 2019. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY : A JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY 2021; 41:4095-4111. [PMID: 34248276 PMCID: PMC8251982 DOI: 10.1002/joc.7060] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/11/2020] [Revised: 01/31/2021] [Accepted: 02/13/2021] [Indexed: 05/05/2023]
Abstract
While weather stations generally capture near-surface ambient air temperature (Ta) at a high temporal resolution to calculate daily values (i.e., daily minimum, mean, and maximum Ta), their fixed locations can limit their spatial coverage and resolution even in densely populated urban areas. As a result, data from weather stations alone may be inadequate for Ta-related epidemiology particularly when the stations are not located in the areas of interest for human exposure assessment. To address this limitation in the Megalopolis of Central Mexico (MCM), we developed the first spatiotemporally resolved hybrid satellite-based land use regression Ta model for the region, home to nearly 30 million people and includes Mexico City and seven more metropolitan areas. Our model predicted daily minimum, mean, and maximum Ta for the years 2003-2019. We used data from 120 weather stations and Land Surface Temperature (LST) data from NASA's MODIS instruments on the Aqua and Terra satellites on a 1 × 1 km grid. We generated a satellite-hybrid mixed-effects model for each year, regressing Ta measurements against land use terms, day-specific random intercepts, and fixed and random LST slopes. We assessed model performance using 10-fold cross-validation at withheld stations. Across all years, the root-mean-square error ranged from 0.92 to 1.92 K and the R 2 ranged from .78 to .95. To demonstrate the utility of our model for health research, we evaluated the total number of days in the year 2010 when residents ≥65 years old were exposed to Ta extremes (above 30°C or below 5°C). Our model provides much needed high-quality Ta estimates for epidemiology studies in the MCM region.
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Affiliation(s)
- Iván Gutiérrez‐Avila
- Department of Environmental Medicine and Public HealthIcahn School of Medicine at Mount SinaiNew YorkNew YorkUSA
| | - Kodi B. Arfer
- Department of Environmental Medicine and Public HealthIcahn School of Medicine at Mount SinaiNew YorkNew YorkUSA
| | - Sandy Wong
- Department of GeographyFlorida State University (FSU)TallahasseeFloridaUSA
| | - Johnathan Rush
- Department of Environmental Medicine and Public HealthIcahn School of Medicine at Mount SinaiNew YorkNew YorkUSA
| | - Itai Kloog
- Department of Geography and Environmental DevelopmentBen‐Gurion University of the NegevBeershebaIsrael
| | - Allan C. Just
- Department of Environmental Medicine and Public HealthIcahn School of Medicine at Mount SinaiNew YorkNew YorkUSA
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Wang P, Goggins WB, Shi Y, Zhang X, Ren C, Ka-Lun Lau K. Long-term association between urban air ventilation and mortality in Hong Kong. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2021; 197:111000. [PMID: 33745928 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2021.111000] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/28/2020] [Revised: 02/17/2021] [Accepted: 03/05/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
While associations between population health outcomes and some urban design characteristics, such as green space, urban heat islands (UHI), and walkability, have been well studied, no prior studies have examined the association of urban air ventilation and health outcomes. This study used data from Hong Kong, a densely populated city, to explore the association between urban air ventilation and mortality during 2008-2014. Frontal area density (FAD), was used to measure urban ventilation, with higher FAD indicating poorer ventilation, due to structures blocking wind penetration. Negative binomial regression models were constructed to regress mortality counts for each 5-year age group, gender, and small area group, on small area level variables including green space density, population density and socioeconomic indicators. An interquartile range increase in FAD was significantly associated with a 10% (95% confidence interval (CI) 2%-19%, p = 0.019) increase in all-cause mortality and a 21% (95% CI: 2%-45%, p = 0.030) increase in asthma mortality, and non-significantly associated with a 9% (95% CI: 1%-19%, p = 0.073) in cardio-respiratory mortality. Better urban ventilation can help disperse vehicle-related pollutants and allow moderation of UHIs, and for a coastal city may allow moderation of cold temperatures. Urban planning should take ventilation into account. Further studies on urban ventilation and health outcomes from different settings are needed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pin Wang
- School of Public Health, Yale University Address: P.O. Box 208034, 60 College Street, New Haven, CT, 06520-0834, USA
| | - William B Goggins
- Jockey Club School of Public Health & Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong.
| | - Yuan Shi
- Institute of Future Cities, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China, Room 406B, Wong Foo Yuan Building, Chung Chi College, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, New Territories, Hong Kong
| | - Xuyi Zhang
- Faculty of Architecture, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China, 4/F, Knowles Building, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam Road, Hong Kong
| | - Chao Ren
- Faculty of Architecture, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China, 4/F, Knowles Building, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam Road, Hong Kong
| | - Kevin Ka-Lun Lau
- Institute of Future Cities, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China, Room 406B, Wong Foo Yuan Building, Chung Chi College, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, New Territories, Hong Kong
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Lay CR, Sarofim MC, Vodonos Zilberg A, Mills DM, Jones RW, Schwartz J, Kinney PL. City-level vulnerability to temperature-related mortality in the USA and future projections: a geographically clustered meta-regression. Lancet Planet Health 2021; 5:e338-e346. [PMID: 34022145 PMCID: PMC9422466 DOI: 10.1016/s2542-5196(21)00058-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/13/2020] [Revised: 03/11/2021] [Accepted: 03/15/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Extreme heat exposure can lead to premature death. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme heat events, resulting in many additional heat-related deaths globally, as well as changing the nature of extreme cold events. At the same time, vulnerability to extreme heat has decreased over time, probably due to a combination of physiological, behavioural, infrastructural, and technological adaptations. We aimed to account for these changes in vulnerability and avoid overstated projections for temperature-related mortality. We used the historical observed decrease in vulnerability to improve future mortality estimates. METHODS We used historical mortality and temperature data from 208 US cities to quantify how observed changes in vulnerability from 1973 to 2013 affected projections of temperature-related mortality under various climate scenarios. We used geographically structured meta-regression to characterise the relationship between temperature and mortality for these urban populations over the specified time period. We then used the fitted relationships to project mortality under future climate conditions. FINDINGS Between Oct 26, 2018, and March 9, 2020, we established that differences in vulnerability to temperature were geographically structured. Vulnerability decreased over time in most areas. US mortalities projected from a 2°C increase in mean temperature decreased by more than 97% when using 2003-13 data compared with 1973-82 data. However, these benefits declined with increasing temperatures, with a 6°C increase showing only an 84% decline in projected mortality based on 2003-13 data. INTERPRETATION Even after accounting for adaptation, the projected effects of climate change on premature mortality constitute a substantial public health risk. Our work suggests large increases in temperature will require additional mitigation to avoid excess mortality from heat events, even in areas with high air conditioning coverage in place. FUNDING The US Environmental Protection Agency and Abt Associates.
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Ho JY, Zijlema WL, Triguero-Mas M, Donaire-Gonzalez D, Valentín A, Ballester J, Chan EYY, Goggins WB, Mo PKH, Kruize H, van den Berg M, Gražuleviciene R, Gidlow CJ, Jerrett M, Seto EYW, Barrera-Gómez J, Nieuwenhuijsen MJ. Does surrounding greenness moderate the relationship between apparent temperature and physical activity? Findings from the PHENOTYPE project. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2021; 197:110992. [PMID: 33705766 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2021.110992] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/22/2020] [Revised: 02/21/2021] [Accepted: 03/04/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Physical activity can be affected by both meteorological conditions and surrounding greenness, but few studies have evaluated the effects of these environmental factors on physical activity simultaneously. This multi-city comparative study aimed to assess the synergetic effects of apparent temperature and surrounding greenness on physical activity in four European cities. Specifically, we aimed to identify an interaction between surrounding greenness and apparent temperature in the effects on physical activity. METHODS Data were collected from 352 adult residents of Barcelona (Spain), Stoke-on-Trent (United Kingdom), Doetinchem (The Netherlands), and Kaunas (Lithuania) as part of the PHENOTYPE study. Participants wore a smartphone for seven consecutive days between May-December 2013 and provided additional sociodemographic survey data. Hourly average physical activity (Metabolic Equivalent of Task (MET)) and surrounding greenness (NDVI) were derived from the Calfit mobile application collecting accelerometer and location data. Hourly apparent temperature was calculated from temperature and relative humidity, which were obtained from local meteorological stations along with other meteorological covariates (rainfall, windspeed, and sky darkness). We assessed the interaction effects of apparent temperature and surrounding greenness on hourly physical activity for each city using linear mixed models, while adjusting for meteorological, demographic, and time-related variables. RESULTS We found significant interactions between apparent temperature and surrounding greenness on hourly physical activity in three of four cities, aside from the coastal city of Barcelona. Significant quadratic effects of apparent temperature were found in the highest level of surrounding greenness for Stoke-on-Trent and Doetinchem, with 4% decrease in median MET observed for a 10°C departure from optimal temperature (15.2°C and 14.6°C, respectively). Significant linear effects were found for higher levels of surrounding greenness in Kaunas, whereby an increase of 10°C was associated with ∼4% increase in median MET. CONCLUSION Apparent temperature and surrounding greenness interacted in the effect on hourly physical activity across three of four European cities, with varying effect between cities. While quadratic effects of temperature suggest diminishing levels of physical activity in the highest greenness levels in cities of temperate climates, the variation in surrounding greenness between cities could be further explored, particularly by looking at indoor-outdoor locations. The study findings support the need for evidence-based physical activity promotion and urban design.
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Affiliation(s)
- Janice Y Ho
- The Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Wilma L Zijlema
- Instituto de Salud Global Barcelona (ISGlobal), Barcelona, Spain; Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF), Barcelona, Spain; CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain
| | - Margarita Triguero-Mas
- Instituto de Salud Global Barcelona (ISGlobal), Barcelona, Spain; Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF), Barcelona, Spain; CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain; Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain; Institute for Environmental Science and Technology, Barcelona, Spain; IMIM (Hospital del Mar Medical Research Institute), Barcelona, Spain; Barcelona Lab for Urban Environmental Justice and Sustainability, Barcelona, Spain
| | - David Donaire-Gonzalez
- Mary MacKillop Institute for Health Research, Australian Catholic University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences (IRAS), Division of Environmental Epidemiology (EEPI), Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
| | - Antònia Valentín
- Instituto de Salud Global Barcelona (ISGlobal), Barcelona, Spain; Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF), Barcelona, Spain; CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain
| | - Joan Ballester
- Instituto de Salud Global Barcelona (ISGlobal), Barcelona, Spain
| | - Emily Y Y Chan
- The Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - William B Goggins
- The Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Phoenix K H Mo
- The Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Hanneke Kruize
- Centre for Sustainability, Environment and Health, RIVM, Bilthoven, the Netherlands
| | | | | | - Christopher J Gidlow
- Centre for Sport, Health and Exercise Research, Staffordshire University, Stoke-on-Trent, UK
| | - Michael Jerrett
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Fielding School of Public Health, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | - Edmund Y W Seto
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Jose Barrera-Gómez
- Instituto de Salud Global Barcelona (ISGlobal), Barcelona, Spain; Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF), Barcelona, Spain; CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain
| | - Mark J Nieuwenhuijsen
- Instituto de Salud Global Barcelona (ISGlobal), Barcelona, Spain; Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF), Barcelona, Spain; CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain.
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48
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Petkova EP, Dimitrova LK, Sera F, Gasparrini A. Mortality attributable to heat and cold among the elderly in Sofia, Bulgaria. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2021; 65:865-872. [PMID: 33416949 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-020-02064-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/03/2020] [Revised: 12/04/2020] [Accepted: 12/10/2020] [Indexed: 05/21/2023]
Abstract
Although a number of epidemiological studies have examined the effects of non-optimal temperatures on mortality in Europe, evidence about the mortality risks associated with exposures to hot and cold temperatures in Bulgaria is scarce. This study provides evidence about mortality attributable to non-optimal temperatures in adults aged 65 and over in Sofia, Bulgaria, between 2000 and 2017. We quantified the relationship between the daily mean temperature and mortality in the total elderly adult population aged 65 and over, among males and females aged 65 and over, as well as individuals aged 65-84 and 85 years or older. We used a distributed lag non-linear model with a 25-day lag to fully capture the effects of both cold and hot temperatures and calculated the fractions of mortality attributable to mild and extreme hot and cold temperatures. Cold temperatures had a greater impact on mortality than hot temperatures during the studied period. Most of the temperature-attributable mortality was due to moderate cold, followed by moderate heat, extreme cold, and extreme heat. The total mortality attributable to non-optimal temperatures was greater among females compared to males and among individuals aged 85 and over compared to those aged 65 to 84. The findings of this study can serve as a foundation for future research and policy development aimed at characterizing and reducing the risks from temperature exposures among vulnerable populations in the country, climate adaptation planning and improved public health preparedness, and response to non-optimal temperatures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Elisaveta P Petkova
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.
| | - Lyudmila K Dimitrova
- Department of Computer and Information Technology, Prof. Asen Zlatarov University, Burgas, Bulgaria
| | - Francesco Sera
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, WC1H 9SH, UK
| | - Antonio Gasparrini
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, WC1H 9SH, UK
- Centre for Statistical Methodology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
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49
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Lei X, Liu L, Chen R, Liu C, Hong J, Cao L, Lu Y, Dong X, Chen X, Qiu X, Xia M, Ding B, Qian L, Wang L, Zhou W, Gui Y, Kan H, Zhou Y, Zhang X. Temperature changes between neighboring days and childhood asthma: a seasonal analysis in Shanghai, China. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2021; 65:827-836. [PMID: 33230642 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-020-02057-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/24/2020] [Revised: 11/16/2020] [Accepted: 11/17/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Few evidences are available about the impact of temperature variation on childhood asthma in different seasons. This study aimed to assess the influence of temperature changes between neighboring days (TCN) on the exacerbation of asthma among children. Daily outpatient visits for childhood asthma (DOVCA) were collected from 17 main hospitals in Shanghai, China, from 2016 to 2018. A quasi-Poisson regression combined with distributed lagged nonlinear models was employed to estimate the association between TCN and asthma visits in cool or warm seasons, after controlling for short- and long-term trends, day of week, holidays, daily mean temperature, daily mean relative humidity, and air pollutants. The TCN varied from - 9.6 to 6.7 °C. The relationship between TCN and DOVCA greatly varied by season. In warm seasons, positive TCN (temperature rise) was associated with higher risks of asthma outpatient visits and negative TCN (temperature drop) was associated with lower risks; the associations were present on lag 1 day and lasted for 2 weeks; the cumulative relative risk of childhood asthma over 0 to 14 days was 1.98 (95% confidence interval: 1.42, 2.76) and 0.31 (95% confidence intervals: 0.21, 0.44) comparing a TCN of 2.5 °C (5th percentile) and - 3.2 °C (95th percentile) with 0 °C, respectively. In cool seasons, neither negative nor positive TCN showed significant risks. In conclusion, temperature rise might increase the risk of childhood asthma exacerbation and temperature drop might decrease the risks in warm seasons. There were no statistically significant influences in cool seasons.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiaoning Lei
- School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education and NHC Key Laboratory of Health Technology Assessment, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200032, China
| | - Lijuan Liu
- Department of Respiratory Medicine, Children's Hospital of Fudan University, No. 399 Wanyuan Road, Shanghai, 201102, China
| | - Renjie Chen
- School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education and NHC Key Laboratory of Health Technology Assessment, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200032, China
| | - Cong Liu
- School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education and NHC Key Laboratory of Health Technology Assessment, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200032, China
| | - Jianguo Hong
- Department of Pediatrics, Shanghai General Hospital, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai, 200080, China
| | - Lanfang Cao
- Department of Pediatrics, Renji Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, 200127, China
| | - Yanming Lu
- Department of Pediatrics, South Campus, Renji Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, 201112, China
| | - Xiaoyan Dong
- Department of Respiratory Medicine, Children's Hospital of Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai, China
| | - Xinchang Chen
- Guangdong Midea Refrigeration Equipment Co., Ltd, Foshan, Guangdong, China
| | - Xiangwei Qiu
- Guangdong Midea Refrigeration Equipment Co., Ltd, Foshan, Guangdong, China
| | - Min Xia
- Department of Pediatrics, Renji Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, 200127, China
| | - Bo Ding
- Department of Pediatrics, South Campus, Renji Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, 201112, China
| | - Liling Qian
- Department of Respiratory Medicine, Children's Hospital of Fudan University, No. 399 Wanyuan Road, Shanghai, 201102, China
| | - Libo Wang
- Department of Respiratory Medicine, Children's Hospital of Fudan University, No. 399 Wanyuan Road, Shanghai, 201102, China
| | - Wenhao Zhou
- Department of Neonatology, Children's Hospital of Fudan University, Shanghai, 201102, China
| | - Yonghao Gui
- Cardiovascular Center, Children's Hospital of Fudan University, Shanghai, 201102, China
| | - Haidong Kan
- School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education and NHC Key Laboratory of Health Technology Assessment, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200032, China
| | - Yufeng Zhou
- Institute of Pediatrics, Children's Hospital of Fudan University, Shanghai, 201102, China.
- Institutes of Biomedical Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200032, China.
| | - Xiaobo Zhang
- Department of Respiratory Medicine, Children's Hospital of Fudan University, No. 399 Wanyuan Road, Shanghai, 201102, China.
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50
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Wang B, Chai G, Sha Y, Zha Q, Su Y, Gao Y. Impact of ambient temperature on cardiovascular disease hospital admissions in farmers in China's Western suburbs. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2021; 761:143254. [PMID: 33190905 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.143254] [Citation(s) in RCA: 37] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/07/2020] [Revised: 10/08/2020] [Accepted: 10/25/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Cardiovascular disease (CVD) has been a major threat to global public health. The association between temperature and CVD has been widely studied and reported in cities in developed countries. However, information from developing countries, especially from suburbs and countryside, is quite limited. In this study, the daily time series data on CVD hospital admissions in farmers in the suburbs of Tianshui, China, and the meteorological data from 2012 to 2015, were collected; besides, a quasi-Poisson regression with a distributed-lag non-linear model (DLNM) was used to explore the impact of local daily mean temperature on CVD hospital admissions in suburban farmers. This study found that, first, from 2011 to 2015, a total of 30,611 person-times of CVD hospital admissions in farmers were recorded; second, there was a "J-shaped" relation between temperature and CVD hospital admissions, and both low and high temperature increased the risk of hospital admission, but the impact of high temperature was greater; third, compared with the minimum hospitalization temperature (MHT) at 0.3 °C, during 0 to 21 lag days, the cumulative relative risk (RR) for extreme cold and heat (1st and 99th percentile of temperature, respectively) was 1.117 (95% CI 0.941-1.325) and 1.740 (95% CI 1.302-2.327), respectively, and that of moderate cold and heat (5st and 95th percentile of temperature, respectively) was 1.029 (95% CI 0.958-1.106) and 1.572 (95% CI 1.210-2.042), respectively; fourth, compared with male and ≥ 65 years groups, the risk for low temperature was greater for female and < 65 years groups, the risk for high temperature was just the opposite; last, about 21.04% of CVD hospital admissions burden were attributed to the ambient temperature, and most of (about 19.26%) were caused by moderate heat. In Tianshui, alongside with extreme temperature, the moderate temperature might be an important risk factor for CVD hospital admissions in suburban farmers.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bin Wang
- School of Management, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, PR China; Research Center for Emergency Management, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, PR China; Hospital Management Research Center, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, PR China
| | - Guorong Chai
- School of Management, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, PR China; Research Center for Emergency Management, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, PR China; Hospital Management Research Center, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, PR China.
| | - Yongzhong Sha
- School of Management, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, PR China; Research Center for Emergency Management, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, PR China; Hospital Management Research Center, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, PR China
| | - Qunwu Zha
- School of Management, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, PR China; Research Center for Emergency Management, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, PR China; Hospital Management Research Center, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, PR China
| | - Yana Su
- School of Management, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, PR China; College of Economics and Management, Lanzhou Institute of Technology, Lanzhou 730050, PR China
| | - Yanyan Gao
- School of Economics and Management, Shanxi Normal University, Linfen 041000, PR China
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