Construction of a risk prediction model for postoperative gastrointestinal dysfunction and prevention in patients with gastrointestinal tumors

Table 1 Univariate analysis results between patients with and without postoperative gastrointestinal dysfunction in gastrointestinal tumor patients

Variable	Non-dysfunction group (n = 124)	Dysfunction group (n = 52)	t value	P value
Age (years)	58.2 ± 8.5	65.3 ± 7.8	5.231	< 0.001
Gender (male/female)	72/52	38/14	4.325	0.038
BMI (kg/m2)	23.5 ± 2.1	21.8 ± 2.3	4.123	0.043
Tumor location (stomach/intestine)	68/56	32/20	0.234	0.629
Tumor stage (I-II/III-IV)	86/38	24/28	5.678	0.017
Surgical approach (open/laparoscopic)	45/79	22/30	1.234	0.267
Operation time (minute)	180.5 ± 30.2	210.3 ± 35.6	4.876	< 0.001
Pre-operative hemoglobin (g/L)	125.3 ± 15.6	108.2 ± 12.3	6.345	< 0.001
Pre-operative albumin (g/L)	38.5 ± 3.2	34.2 ± 3.5	7.234	< 0.001

Data are presented as mean ± SD for continuous variables and n for categorical variables. Intergroup comparisons were performed using the t-test (for continuous variables) or χ² test (for categorical variables). P < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. BMI: Body mass index.

Table 2 Multivariate Logistic regression analysis of independent risk factors for postoperative gastrointestinal dysfunction in patients with gastrointestinal tumors

Variable	B	SE	Wald	df	P value	OR	95%CI
Age (year)	0.085	0.032	7.123	1	0.008	1.089	1.023-1.160
Gender (male vs female)	0.852	0.345	6.123	1	0.013	2.346	1.182-4.658
BMI (kg/m2)	-0.234	0.102	5.234	1	0.022	0.792	0.645-0.978
Tumor stage (III-IV vs I-II)	1.234	0.456	7.456	1	0.006	3.432	1.412-8.321
Operation time (minute)	0.012	0.004	8.234	1	0.004	1.012	1.004-1.020
Pre-operative hemoglobin (g/L)	-0.023	0.008	8.123	1	0.004	0.977	0.962-0.993
Pre-operative albumin (g/L)	-0.156	0.052	8.987	1	0.003	0.856	0.765-0.954

Reference categories for categorical variables: Gender (female), tumor stage (I-II). P < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. OR: Odds ratio; 95%CI: 95% confidence interval; BMI: Body mass index.

Table 3 Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis results of the risk prediction model for postoperative gastrointestinal dysfunction in patients with gastrointestinal tumors

Index	AUC	95%CI	P value	Optimal cut-off value	Sensitivity (%)	Specificity (%)
Prediction model	0.895	0.842-0.948	0.000	0.456	82.3	85.6

Optimal cut-off value represents the threshold value with the best balance of sensitivity and specificity; Sensitivity represents true positive rate; Specificity represents true negative rate. P < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. AUC: Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; 95%CI: 95% confidence interval.

Table 4 Effect of preventive management measures based on the risk prediction model on the incidence of postoperative gastrointestinal dysfunction in patients with gastrointestinal tumors

Group	n	Number of cases with postoperative gastrointestinal dysfunction	Incidence (%)	χ²	P value
Intervention group	60	12	20.0	8.234	0.004
Control group	60	28	46.7	8.234	0.004

Incidence (%) was calculated as (number of cases with postoperative gastrointestinal dysfunction/total sample size) × 100%. Intergroup comparison was performed using the χ² test. P < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Preventive management measures included nutritional support, early ambulation, and psychological intervention.