©The Author(s) 2025. Published by Baishideng Publishing Group Inc. All rights reserved.
World J Gastrointest Surg. Dec 27, 2025; 17(12): 112175
Published online Dec 27, 2025. doi: 10.4240/wjgs.v17.i12.112175
Published online Dec 27, 2025. doi: 10.4240/wjgs.v17.i12.112175
Predicting unplanned extubation risk in patients with endoscopic nasobiliary drainage
Wen-Jing Li, Na Mi, Xi Huang, Chang-Sha Liu, Shu-Ting Zhang, Yu Liao, Yan Yu, Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Army Medical University, Chongqing 400037, China
Author contributions: Li WJ and Mi N contributed equally as co-first authors for study design, data analysis, and manuscript writing; Huang X, Liu CS, Zhang ST, and Liao Y participated in data collection and manuscript revision; Yu Y served as corresponding author, providing study supervision and final approval; All authors read and approved the final version of the manuscript.
Supported by the Chongqing Municipal Health Commission Project, No. 2024WSJK017.
Institutional review board statement: The study was reviewed and approved by the Ethics Committee of the Second Affiliated Hospital, Army Medical University (Approval No. 2024-Research-135-02).
Informed consent statement: As this was a retrospective study, the requirement for informed consent was waived by the Ethics Committee.
Conflict-of-interest statement: The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest.
Data sharing statement: The data supporting the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
Corresponding author: Yan Yu, MD, Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Army Medical University, No. 83 Xinqiao Street, Shapingba District, Chongqing 400037, China. yuyan2025@tmmu.edu.cn
Received: August 6, 2025
Revised: September 3, 2025
Accepted: October 13, 2025
Published online: December 27, 2025
Processing time: 141 Days and 0.6 Hours
Revised: September 3, 2025
Accepted: October 13, 2025
Published online: December 27, 2025
Processing time: 141 Days and 0.6 Hours
Core Tip
Core Tip: This multicenter retrospective study developed and validated a six-factor risk prediction model for unplanned nasobiliary tube extubation after endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography plus endoscopic nasobiliary drainage. Independent predictors included age ≥ 61 years, smoking history, prolonged fasting, catheter duration, consciousness change, and low serum albumin. The nomogram demonstrated excellent discrimination (area under the curve = 0.881) and clinical utility. A total score ≥ 199 indicated high risk. This tool enables early identification of patients at high risk and supports targeted nursing interventions to reduce complications, hospitalization time, and healthcare costs.