This study aimed to identify the risk factors associated with ampullary duodenal carcinoma (a-DC) and develop a clinical model to dynamically and accurately predict the risk of lymph node metastasis (LNM) in a-DC patients.

Data from 4077 patients (2004-2020) were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database to form a training cohort, while 173 cases (2010-2020) from Zhejiang Provincial People's Hospital in China were used as an external validation cohort. A reliable LASSO-logistic method was employed to identify independent risk factors for a-DC LNM, and a nomogram was developed based on these factors to assess the risk of a-DC LNM. The nomogram was evaluated using the Akaike information criterion, misclassification error, area under the curve, and likelihood ratio test. Finally, the nomogram's accuracy and generalizability were externally validated..

After screening using LASSO and logistic regression four variables were identified as independent risk factors for a-DC LNM: sex (P < 0.001), tumor size (P < 0.001), grade (P < 0.001), and tumor extension (P < 0.001). The area under the curve of the nomogram was 74.8% in the training group and 88.9% in the external validation group. The calibration curves demonstrated that the LNM predictions made by the nomogram were in satisfactory agreement with the actual observed LNM. Additionally, the decision curve analysis curves indicated effective clinical utility of the nomogram.

A nomogram based on the LASSO-logistic analysis was constructed to predict a-DC LNM, demonstrating good performance and clinical application value.

To predict tumor recurrence in patients who underwent surgical resection of ampullary adenocarcinoma using preoperative magnetic resonance (MR) imaging findings combined with clinical findings.

In this multicenter study, a total of 113 patients (mean age, 62.9 ± 9.8 years; 58 men and 55 women) with ampullary adenocarcinoma who underwent preoperative MR imaging and surgery with margin-negative resection between 2006 and 2017 were retrospectively included. The MR imaging findings were evaluated by two radiologists. Preoperative clinical findings were obtained. Cox proportional regression analyses were used to identify the independent prognostic factors for recurrence-free survival (RFS). A nomogram was created based on the multivariable analysis and was internally validated.

Multivariable analysis revealed that presence of infiltrative tumor margin (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.18, p = 0.019), adjacent organ invasion (HR: 3.31, p = 0.006), adjacent vessel invasion (HR: 5.42, p = 0.041), peripancreatic lymph node enlargement (HR: 2.1, p = 0.019), and jaundice (HR: 1.93, p = 0.043) were significantly associated with worse RFS of ampullary adenocarcinoma after surgical resection. These MR imaging and clinical findings were used to construct a nomogram. On internal validation, the calibration plots showed excellent agreement between the predicted probabilities and the actual rates of tumor recurrence, with Harrell's c-index of 0.746.

Combination of preoperative MR imaging and clinical findings can be useful for predicting tumor recurrence after surgical resection of ampullary adenocarcinoma. Identifying these features before surgery may aid in better treatment planning and management of these patients.

A predictive nomogram using preoperative MR imaging and clinical findings can be useful in estimating the recurrence-free survival after surgical resection of ampullary adenocarcinoma.

• Presently, tumor size on imaging is the only non-invasive factor that correlates with recurrence-free survival from ampullary adenocarcinoma; other factors are obtained postoperatively. • Infiltrative tumor margin, adjacent organ invasion, adjacent vessel invasion, peripancreatic lymph node enlargement on MRI, and jaundice are significant predictors for recurrence. • A nomogram incorporating significant MR imaging and clinical findings showed good performance in predicting recurrence-free survival, which can help in treatment planning.

The published data had contradictory information on the role of adjuvant therapy on resected periampullary carcinomas (PACA). The study was performed to evaluate the survival benefit of adjuvant treatment.

This was a propensity score matched case-control study from a prospectively maintained database from 2004-2019. The study included patients with nonpancreatic PACA who underwent curative resection. The patients (cases) who received adjuvant chemotherapy were compared with patients (controls) who were observed alone after surgery.

Of 510 patients with PACA, 230 patients (cases = 107, controls = 123) formed the unmatched study cohort. After propensity score matching, 140 patients (cases = 70, controls = 70) formed the matched study cohort. The median overall survival (OS) was similar in cases than controls in the unmatched population but doubled non-significantly in cases after matching (unmatched population, 54 months vs. 54 months, p-value = 0.624; matched population, 71 months vs. 36 months, p-value = 0.087). However, the median recurrence-free survival (RFS) was non significantly higher in the control group (unmatched population, 59 months vs. 38 months, p-value = 0.195; matched population, 53 months vs. 40 months, p-value = 0.797). In cox regression analysis, age < 60 years, advanced T stage, and presence of perineural invasion were independent factors for worse RFS, while tumor recurrence was an independent factor for poor OS.

Patients with nonpancreatic PACA may have an OS benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy, and this needs to be validated with large prospective randomized studies.

To develop a diagnostic model for distinguishing pancreatobiliary-type and intestinal-type periampullary adenocarcinomas using preoperative contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CT) findings combined with clinical characteristics.

This retrospective study included 140 patients with periampullary adenocarcinoma who underwent preoperative enhanced CT, including pancreaticobiliary (N = 100) and intestinal (N = 40) types. They were randomly assigned to the training or internal validation set in an 8:2 ratio. Additionally, an independent external cohort of 28 patients was enrolled. Various CT features of the periampullary region were evaluated and data from clinical and laboratory tests were collected. Five machine learning classifiers were developed to identify the histologic type of periampullary adenocarcinoma, including logistic regression, random forest, multi-layer perceptron, light gradient boosting, and eXtreme gradient boosting (XGBoost).

All machine learning classifiers except multi-layer perceptron used achieved good performance in distinguishing pancreatobiliary-type and intestinal-type adenocarcinomas, with the area under the curve (AUC) ranging from 0.75 to 0.98. The AUC values of the XGBoost classifier in the training set, internal validation set and external validation set are 0.98, 0.89 and 0.84 respectively. The enhancement degree of tumor, the growth pattern of tumor, and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 were the most important factors in the model.

Machine learning models combining CT with clinical features can serve as a noninvasive tool to differentiate the histological subtypes of periampullary adenocarcinoma, in particular using the XGBoost classifier.

Duodenal papilla carcinoma (DPC) is prone to relapse even after radical pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) (including robotic, laparoscopic and open approach). This study aimed to develop web calculators to predict early recurrence (ER) (within two years after surgery) and long-term survival in patients with DPC after PD.

Patients with DPC after radical PD were included. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify independent risk factors. Two web calculators were developed based on independent risk factors in the training cohort and then tested in the validation cohort.

Of the 251 patients who met the inclusion criteria, 180 and 71 patients were enrolled in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that tumor size [Odds Ratio (OR) 1.386; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1070-1.797; P = 0.014]; number of lymph node metastasis (OR 2.535; 95% CI 1.114-5.769; P = 0.027), perineural invasion (OR 3.078; 95% CI 1.147-8.257; P = 0.026), and tumor differentiation (OR 3.552; 95% CI 1.132-11.152; P = 0.030) were independent risk factors for ER. Nomogram based on the above four factors achieved good C-statistics of 0.759 and 0.729 in predicting ER in the training and the validation cohorts, respectively. Time-dependent ROC analysis (timeROC) and decision curve analysis (DCA) revealed that the nomogram provided superior diagnostic capacity and net benefit compared with single variable.

This study developed and validated two web calculators that can predict ER and long-term survival in patients with DPC with high degree of stability and accuracy.

The tumor-host interaction in the tumor microenvironment (TME) affects the prognosis of patients with malignant tumors. TME assessed via tumor budding (BD) and tumor-infiltrating lymphocyte (TIL) had a prognostic impact in patients with nonampullary small intestinal and colorectal carcinomas. In ampullary carcinoma (AC), MUC5AC was recently revealed as a significant prognosticator, but studies about the TME have not been conducted.

To assess TME-based prognostic risk in AC.

We generated a collective TME risk index based on high-grade BD at the invasive front (BD3) and high density of stromal-TIL (>5%) in 64 surgically resected ACs. We evaluated its predictive values for overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS). We also investigated the relationship of TME to MUC5AC expression.

TME prognostic risk index was classified into low-risk (BDLow/TILHigh; 26 of 64; 41%), intermediate-risk (BDLow/TILLow or BDHigh/TILHigh; 23; 36%), and high-risk (BDHigh/TILLow; 15; 23%) groups. Higher TME prognostic risk was associated with higher tumor grade (P = .03), lymphovascular invasion (P = .05), and MUC5AC immunopositivity (P = .02). TME prognostic risk index displayed better predictive ability for both OS (53.9 versus 46.1 versus 42.2) and RFS (24.8 versus 16.9 versus 15.3) than BD or TIL alone. In multivariate analysis, TME prognostic risk index was an independent prognosticator for OS (P = .003) and RFS (P = .03).

TME risk index in combination with BD and TIL was a stronger predictor of prognostic risk stratification than either BD or TIL alone for both OS and RFS in patients with AC. MUC5AC may modulate the interaction between tumor cells and immunity toward enhancing invasiveness in TME.

Pancreatoduodenectomy (PD) is recommended in fit patients with a resectable ampullary adenocarcinoma (AA). We aimed to identify predictors of five-year recurrence/survival.

Data were extracted from the Recurrence After Whipple's (RAW) study, a multicentre retrospective study of PD patients with a confirmed head of pancreas or periampullary malignancy (June 1st, 2012-May 31st, 2015). Patients with AA who developed recurrence/died within five-years were compared to those who did not.

394 patients were included and actual five-year survival was 54%. Recurrence affected 45% and the median time-to-recurrence was 14 months. Local only, local and distant, and distant only recurrence affected 34, 41 and 94 patients, respectively (site unknown: 7). Among those with recurrence, the most common sites were the liver (32%), local lymph nodes (14%) and lung/pleura (13%). Following multivariable tests, number of resected nodes, histological T stage > II, lymphatic invasion, perineural invasion (PNI), peripancreatic fat invasion (PPFI) and ≥1 positive resection margin correlated with increased recurrence and reduced survival. Furthermore, ≥1 positive margin, PPFI and PNI were all associated with reduced time-to-recurrence.

This multicentre retrospective study of PD outcomes identified numerous histopathological predictors of AA recurrence. Patients with these high-risk features might benefit from adjuvant therapy.

The treatment for ampullary cancer is pancreatoduodenectomy or local ampullectomy. However, effective methods for the preoperative investigation of hilar biliary invasion in ampullary cancer patients have not yet been identified.

To determine the necessity of and an appropriate method for investigating hilar biliary invasion of ampullary cancer.

Among 43 ampullary cancer patients, 34 underwent endoscopic treatment (n = 9) or surgery (n = 25). The use of imaging findings (thickening and enhancement of the bile duct wall on contrast-enhanced computed tomography, irregularity on endoscopic retrograde cholangiography, thickening of the entire bile duct wall on intraductal ultrasonography (IDUS), and partial thickening of the bile duct wall on IDUS) and biliary biopsy results for diagnosing hilar biliary invasion of ampullary cancer was compared.

Hilar invasion was not observed in every patient. Among the patients who did not undergo biliary stent insertion, the combination of partial thickening of the bile duct wall on IDUS and biliary biopsy results showed the highest accuracy (100%) for diagnosing hilar biliary invasion. However, each imaging method and biliary biopsy yielded some false-positive results.

Although some false-positive results were obtained with each method, the combination of partial thickening of the bile duct wall on IDUS and biliary biopsy results was useful for diagnosing hilar biliary invasion of ampullary cancer. However, hilar invasion of ampullary cancer is rare; therefore, the investigation of hilar biliary invasion of ampullary cancer might be unnecessary.

Due to the low incidence of ampullary adenocarcinoma (AA), the recurrence patterns, risk factors for recurrence and post-recurrence treatment are still debated. The purpose of this study is to clarify such clinical issues based on the retrospective data at the National Cancer Center in China. Finally, one hundred and eighty-two AA patients after curative Whipple's resection from 1998 to 2019 were retrospectively reviewed. Among them, 27 patients had locoregional recurrence and 61 patients had systemic recurrence. However, no significant difference of clinicopathological features and survival were found between locoregional recurrence and distant metastasis. In the recurrence group, the 1-year, 2-year, and 3-year recurrence-free survival and overall survival were 59.1%, 29.5%, 10.2%, 88.6%, 61.6%, and 37.6%, respectively. AA patients with recurrence have a worse prognosis than those without recurrence, regardless of stage. In addition, we found that advanced T stage and lymphovascular invasion were two independent risk factors for RFS in AA patients after curative Whipple's resection. In conclusion, AA patients with recurrence have a poor prognosis. Advanced T stage and lymphovascular invasion were two independent risk factors for recurrence-free survival in AA patients after curative Whipple's resection. Nevertheless, further studies with larger sample sizes are needed to fully validate.

Ampullary adenocarcinoma (AAC) is a rare neoplasm that accounts for only 0.2% of all gastrointestinal cancers. Its incidence rate is lower than 6 cases per million people. Different prognostic factors have been described for AAC and are associated with a wide range of survival rates. However, these studies have been exclusively conducted in patients originating from Asian, European, and North American countries.

To evaluate the histopathologic predictors of overall survival (OS) in South American patients with AAC treated with curative pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD).

We analyzed retrospective data from 83 AAC patients who underwent curative (R0) PD at the National Cancer Institute of Peru between January 2010 and October 2020 to identify histopathologic predictors of OS.

Sixty-nine percent of patients had developed intestinal-type AAC (69%), 23% had pancreatobiliary-type AAC, and 8% had other subtypes. Forty-one percent of patients were classified as Stage I, according to the AJCC 8th Edition. Recurrence occurred primarily in the liver (n = 8), peritoneum (n = 4), and lung (n = 4). Statistical analyses indicated that T3 tumour stage [hazard ratio (HR) of 6.4, 95% confidence interval (CI) of 2.5-16.3, P < 0.001], lymph node metastasis (HR: 4.5, 95%CI: 1.8-11.3, P = 0.001), and pancreatobiliary type (HR: 2.7, 95%CI: 1.2-6.2, P = 0.025) were independent predictors of OS.

Extended tumour stage (T3), pancreatobiliary type, and positive lymph node metastasis represent independent predictors of a lower OS rate in South American AAC patients who underwent curative PD.

Ampullary adenocarcinomas (AACs) are heterogeneous tumors currently classified into three important sub-classes (SC): Intestinal (INT), Pancreato-Biliary (PB) and Mixed-Type (MT). The different subgroups have similar clinical presentation and are treated by pancreatoduodenectomy with curative intent. However, they respond differently to chemotherapy and have different prognostic outcomes. The SC are often difficult to identify with conventional histology alone. The clinical outcome of all three remains unclear, particularly for MT.

To identify two main subtypes of AACs, using an immunohistochemical (IHC) score based on CDX2, CK7 and CK20.

Tissue samples from 21 patients who had undergone resection of AAC were classified by HE histology and IHC expression of CDX2, CK7 and CK 20. An IHC score was obtained for each marker by counting the number of positive cells (0 = no stained cells; 1 < 25%; 2 < 50% and 3 > 50%) and their intensity (1 = weak; 2 = moderate and 3 = strong). A global score (GS) was then obtained by summation of the IHC scores of each marker. The MT tumors were grouped either with the INT or PB group based on the predominant immuno-molecular phenotype, obtaining only two AACs subtypes. The overall survival in INT and PB patients was obtained by Kaplan-Meier methods.

Histological parameters defined the AACs subtypes as follows: 15% INT, 45% PB and 40% MT. Using IHC expression and the GS, 75% and 25% of MT samples were assigned to either the INT or the PB group. The mean value of the GS was 9.5 (range 4-16). All INT samples had a GS above the average, distinct from the PB samples which had a GS score significantly below the average (P = 0.0011). The INT samples were identified by high expression of CDX2 and CK20, whereas PB samples exhibited high expression of CK7 and no expression of CK20 (P = 0.0008). The INT group had a statistically significant higher overall survival than in the PB group (85.7 mo vs 20.3 mo, HR: 8.39; 95%CI: 1.38 to 18.90; P = 0.0152).

The combination of histopathological and molecular criteria enables the classification of AACs into two clinically relevant histo-molecular phenotypes, which appear to represent distinct disorders with potentially significant changes to the current therapeutic strategies.