Identification of early predictors of postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) related postpancreatectomy hemorrhage (PPH) on contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CT) may help tailoring management after pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) although no model has been validated so far.

A bicentric analysis of consecutive PD performed between 2017 and 2022 was performed. A recently reported CT-based score (CTS) was externally validated. Sensitivity refinements were proposed through a modified-CTS which was internally (development cohort, n=182) and externally validated (validation cohort, n=62). Bootstrap corrected Areas under the curve (AUCs), Sensitivity (Se) and Positive Predictive Value (PVV) were used to evaluate and compare the two scores.

A total of 244 patients (55.1% women; median age: 68 years [IQR: 58.0-75.0], clinically relevant (cr)-POPF: 25.4%, cr-PPH: 13.9%) were included. CTS accurately predicted a cr-PPH with an AUC of 0.83 (1000-boostrap 95% CI: 0.76-0.89). The modified-CTS, made available online (https://stylianostzedakis.shinyapps.io/pph_risk_calculator/), included CTS with 2 supplementary variables selected from a multivariable backward-stepwise regression: Perianastomotic air bubbles, posterosuperior pancreaticojejunal (PJ) anastomosis collection, posterior PJ defect, PJ collection in contact with hepatic or gastroduodenal artery stump and arterial wall irregularities. When compared with the CTS, although modified-CTS AUC [95%CI] were similar in the validation cohort (0.81 [0.62-0.95] vs. 0.87 [0.56-0.96], DeLong p=0.7), Se and PPV for early PPH detection were significantly higher (0.82 [0.75-0.92] vs. 0.71 [0.35-0.75] and 0.95 [0.83-0.99] vs. 0.33 [0.12-0.62], McNemar's p = 0.03).

With a robust prediction model, early CT-scan after PD seems a valid tool for early identification of high-risk cr-PPH patients.

The aim of this narrative review is to familiarize clinicians, especially digestive surgeons, to adequately use of serum C-reactive protein as a reliable noninvasive biomarker in diverse practical clinical situations. We hope that the review will help clinicians for their decision-making when facing various digestive diseases including operative and nonoperative pathologies such as anastomotic leakage, pancreatitis, emergency situation, and digestive cancer management and prognosis.

Pseudoaneurysm (PA) rupture after pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) is a life-threatening complication. Most PA cases originate from postoperative pancreatic fistulas (POPFs). Although several risk factors for POPF have been identified, specific risk factors for PA formation remain unclear. Therefore, we retrospectively analyzed PD cases with soft pancreas and proposed a novel strategy for early detection of PA formation.

Overall, 120 patients underwent PD between 2010 and 2020 at our institution; of these, 65 patients with soft pancreas were enrolled. We evaluated the clinicopathological factors influencing PA formation and developed a risk score to predict PA formation.

In total, 11 of the 65 patients developed PAs (PA formation group: PAG), and 8 of these 11 PAs ruptured. The median time to PA formation was 15 days, with a minimum of 5 days. The PAG was significantly older than the non-PA formation group, were predominantly men, and had comorbid diabetes mellitus. Pre- and intra-operative findings were similar between the two groups. Importantly, no significant differences were found in postoperative drain amylase levels and total drain amylase content. Cholinesterase and C-reactive protein (CRP) levels on postoperative day (POD) 3 were significantly different between the two groups. Multivariate analysis showed that cholinesterase ≤ 112 U/L and CRP ≥ 16.0 mg/dl on POD 3 were independent predictors of PA formation.

Decreased cholinesterase and elevated CRP on POD 3 (Cho-C score) are useful predictors of PA formation in cases with soft pancreas. In such cases, periodic computed tomography evaluations and strict drain management are necessary to prevent life-threatening hemorrhage.

Background:Postpancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) hemorrhage (PPH) is a life-threatening complication after PD. The main objective of this study was to evaluate incidence and factors associated with late PPH as well as the management strategy and outcomes. Methods: Between May 2017 and March 2020, clinical data from 192 patients undergoing PD were collected prospectively in the CHIRPAN Database (NCT02871336) and retrospectively analyzed. In our institution, all patients scheduled for a PD are routinely admitted for monitoring and management in intensive/intermediate care unit (ICU/IMC). Results: The incidence of late PPH was 17% (32 of 192), whereas the 90-day mortality rate of late PPH was 19% (6 of 32). Late PPH was associated with 90-day mortality (P = 0.001). Using multivariate analysis, independent risk factors for late PPH were postoperative sepsis (P = 0.036), and on day 3, creatinine (P = 0.025), drain fluid amylase concentration (P = 0.023), lipase concentration (P < 0.001), and C-reactive protein (CRP) concentration (P < 0.001). We developed two predictive scores for PPH occurrence, the PANCRHEMO scores. Score 1 was associated with 68.8% sensitivity, 85.6% specificity, 48.8% predictive positive value, 93.2% negative predictive value, and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curves of 0.841. Score 2 was associated with 81.2% sensitivity, 76.9% specificity, 41.3% predictive positive value, 95.3% negative predictive value, and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.859. Conclusions: Routine ICU/IMC monitoring might contribute to a better management of these complications. Some predicting factors such as postoperative sepsis and biological markers on day 3 should help physicians to determine patients requiring a prolonged ICU/IMC monitoring.

The role of preoperative inflammatory biomarkers (PIBs) in predicting postoperative morbidity has been assessed in colorectal and otorhinolaryngeal surgery. However, data regarding the role that preoperative inflammatory biomarkers have on morbidity after pancreaticoduodenectomiy (PD) are less consistent.

To assess the utility of PIBs in predicting postoperative complications after pancreaticoduodenectomy.

A database of 317 consecutive pancreaticoduodenectomies performed from April 2003 to November 2018 has been retrospectively analyzed. Data regarding preoperative neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), derived NLR and C-reactive protein (CRP), and postoperative complications of 238 cases have been evaluated. Exclusion criteria were: age < 18-years-old, previous neoadjuvant treatment, absence of data about PIBs, concomitant hematological disorders, and presence of active infections at the moment of the surgery. PIBs were compared using Mann-Whitney's test and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was performed to define the cutoffs. The positive predictive value (PPV) was computed to evaluate the probability to develop complication. P-values < 0.05 were considered statistically significant.

According to the literature findings, only four papers have been published reporting the relation between the inflammatory biomarkers and PD postoperative morbidity. A combination of preoperative and postoperative inflammatory biomarkers in predicting complications after PD and the utility of preoperative NLR in the development of postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) have been reported. The combination of PIBs and postoperative day-1 drains amylase has been reported to predict the incidence of POPF. According to our results, CRP values were significantly different between patients who had/did not have postoperative complications and abdominal collections (P < 0.05). Notably, patients with preoperative CRP > 8.81 mg/dL were at higher risk of both overall complications and abdominal collections (respectively P = 0.0037, PPV = 0.95, negative predictive value [NPV] = 0.27 and P = 0.016, PPV = 0.59, NPV = 0.68). Preoperative derived neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (dNLR) (cut off > 1.47) was also a predictor of abdominal collection (P = 0.021, PPV = 0.48, NPV = 0.71). Combining CRP and dNLR, PPV increased to 0.67. NLR (cut off > 1.65) was significantly associated with postoperative hemorrhage (P = 0.016, PPV = 0.17, NPV = 0.98).

PIBs may predict complications after PD. During postoperative care, PIB levels could influence decisions regarding the timing of drains removal and the selection of patients who might benefit from second level diagnostic exams.