Pre-diabetes comprises diverse subphenotypes linked to varying complications, type 2 diabetes, and mortality outcomes. This study aimed to explore these outcomes across different pre-diabetes subphenotypes.

The dataset included adults without type 2 diabetes with baseline HbA1c and fasting plasma glucose (FPG) measurements from Siriraj Hospital, Bangkok, Thailand. The participants were classified into six subphenotypes via the k-means clustering method on the basis of age, body mass index, FPG, HbA1c, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and alanine aminotransferase levels. The incidences of type 2 diabetes, long-term vascular complications and mortality were compared among subphenotypes over a median follow-up of 8.8 years, employing Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox regression analysis adjusted for sex, statin use and hypertension status.

Among the 4915 participants (mean age 60.1±10.1 years; 54.6% female), six clusters emerged: cluster 1, low risk (n=650; 13.2%); cluster 2, mild dysglycemia elderly (n=791; 16.1%); cluster 3, severe dysglycemia obese (n=1127; 22.9%); cluster 4, mild dysglycemia obese (n=963; 19.7%); cluster 5, severe dysmetabolic obese (n=337; 6.9%); and cluster 6, severe dysglycemia elderly (n=1042; 21.2%). Clusters were classified into diabetes risk subgroups: low risk (clusters 1 and 4) and high risk (clusters 3 and 5). Cluster 6 exhibited the highest risk, with significantly increased incidences of macrovascular complications (adjusted HR 2.22, 1.51-3.27) and type 2 diabetes (1.73, 1.42-2.12). In contrast, cluster 4 demonstrated the lowest risk, with significantly decreased incidences of new chronic kidney disease (0.65, 0.44-0.96), microvascular complications (0.62, 0.43-0.89) and mortality (0.25, 0.10-0.63).

Our pre-diabetes phenotyping approach effectively provides valuable insights into the risk of type 2 diabetes, vascular complications and mortality in individuals with pre-diabetes. Those with high-risk phenotypes should be prioritized for type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular interventions to mitigate risks.

Little is known about biological markers, at levels within their normal ranges which might predict future mortality. We aimed at identifying possible predictors of future death in participants before pathological conditions manifest. We analyzed data from a population-based prospective cohort study (the Ohasama study), comprised of 993 participants who underwent 75-g oral glucose tolerance tests (OGTTs). We collected blood parameters, including those measured during OGTTs, and divided the study population into two groups based on the median value of each parameter, followed by analyses of mortality during follow-up in both groups. In addition, we extracted subjects with normal glucose tolerance (NGT) (n = 595) and analyzed the association between 1-h postload plasma glucose during OGTTs (1-hrPG) and mortality as well as the causes of death. Among all parameters evaluated, 1-hrPG was found to be most significantly associated with all-cause mortality during the mean follow-up of 14.3 years. When we focused on subjects with NGT, Harrell's C concordance index analysis revealed a cut-off of 1-hrPG ≥170 mg/dL to be most strongly associated with all-cause mortality (0.8066). The Kaplan-Meier plots showed nearly double the proportion of the 1-hrPG ≥170 group to have died as compared with the 1-hrPG <170 group throughout the follow-up period after the third year. Cardiovascular diseases and malignant neoplasms both strongly contributed to the increased mortality in the high 1-hrPG group. Thus, 1-hrPG ≥170 is a powerful predictor of future death in subjects with NGT. Atherosclerotic and malignant diseases both contributed to the increased mortality.

The study aims to explore the diagnostic value of the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) combined with olfactory tests for identifying mild cognitive impairment (MCI) in older adult patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).

This prospective study enrolled older adult T2DM patients from Jiulongpo District People's Hospital, Chongqing, China, between August 2018 and January 2023. Diagnostic criteria proposed by Petersen served as the gold standard for MCI. The Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), MoCA, and olfactory assessments were employed to evaluate cognitive function.

A total of 192 patients were included, of which 94 (49.0%) were diagnosed with MCI (68.5 ± 5.5 years; 31.9% male) and 98 (51.0%) with normal cognitive function (NMCI) (68.4 ± 4.9 years; 45.9% male). Compared to the NMCI group, the MCI group showed significant differences in MMSE (25.6 ± 2.5 vs. 28.7 ± 1.3, P < 0.001), MoCA (20.7 ± 2.5 vs. 26.3 ± 2.4, P < 0.001), olfactory (23.9 ± 7.2 vs. 26.4 ± 8.4, P = 0.027), and olfactory impairment degree (P = 0.004). The area under the ROC curve (AUC) for the olfactory test was 0.620 (95%CI: 0.541-0.699), for MMSE 0.838 (95%CI: 0.779-0.897), and for MoCA 0.948 (95%CI: 0.918-0.977). For the combination of MoCA with olfactory tests, the AUC of the parallel test was 0.955 (95%CI: 0.929-0.982).

The MoCA scale is an effective screening tool for MCI in T2DM patients. Additionally, the combination of MoCA and olfactory testing is superior to MoCA alone in identifying MCI in T2DM patients. This combination approach offers a promising diagnostic tool for MCI in T2DM patients.

Early diabetes screening is critical in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where the prevalence is increasing, yet a large proportion of cases remain undiagnosed. This study aimed to evaluate the performance of fasting plasma glucose (FPG) in screening diabetes and/or prediabetes compared to the 2-hour plasma glucose (2-h PG)-level in SSA.

Data from a population-based, cross-sectional diabetes screening survey involving 1550 individuals in Butajira, Ethiopia, and Enugu state, Nigeria were analyzed. Fasting plasma glucose and a 2-hour 75-g oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) were utilized for diabetes screening. In addition, we determined and plotted the receiver operating characteristic curve for FPG against the reference standard 2-h PG to evaluate the screening tool's sensitivity and specificity.

The mean (SD) age of the study participants was 44.5 (± 16.43) years, with men comprising 50.4% of the cohort. Among 1550 individuals analyzed, 4.6% and 16.8% demonstrated diabetes and prediabetes, respectively, as identified by either FPG or 2-h PG. The agreement between FPG and 2-h PG in identifying diabetes and prediabetes was moderate, with kappa statistic of 0.56 (95% CI, 0.51 - 0.61; p<0.0001) for diabetes and 0.45 (95% CI, 0.40 - 0.50; p<0.0001) for prediabetes. FPG failed to detect 34.1% of all prediabetes and 44.4% of all diabetes cases. The sensitivity of FPG in identifying diabetes cases was 44.3% at a cut-off 126 mg/dL with a specificity of 99.3%. We identified the optimal FPG cut-off for detecting newly identified diabetes cases using 2-h PG to be 105 mg/dL associated with a sensitivity and specificity of 67.2% and 94.0%, respectively.

FPG was able to correctly identify 99.3% of individuals with no diabetes but a significant percentage of diabetes cases would have remained undiagnosed if only FPG had been utilized instead of the 2-h PG. The use of 2-h PG test is recommended to diagnose diabetes in older individuals, females and non-obese persons who would be missed if tested by only FPG. Lowering the cut-off value for FPG to 105 mg/dL substantially increases the identification of individuals with diabetes, thus improving the effectiveness of FPG as a screening test for type 2 diabetes.

Impaired glucose tolerance (IGT), a prediabetic state, is a known risk factor for coronary artery disease (CAD). Low-attenuation plaque (LAP) lesions are associated with a high risk of coronary events. We aimed to evaluate high-risk plaque characteristics in LAP lesions between patients with IGT and normal glucose tolerance (NGT) in patients suspected for stable CAD. Coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) identified LAP lesions and assessed plaque volumes, burdens, and high-risk plaque features. Glycemic tolerance was stratified using oral glucose tolerance tests. Among 148 patients, 202 LAP lesions were identified, with 93 patients classified as NGT and 55 as IGT. Patients with IGT had a significantly higher prevalence of LAP lesions compared with NGT (p = 0.007). LAP volume was higher in IGT (16.46 ± 12.52 mm3) compared with NGT (12.66 ± 9.72 mm3, p = 0.01), but this association did not persist in multivariate analysis. The LAP burden was greater in IGT (10.79 ± 6.84%) than NGT (8.62 ± 5.93%, p = 0.02), and the napkin-ring sign was more frequent in IGT (12%) versus NGT (5%, p = 0.02); these associations remained significant in multivariate analysis. Patients with IGT had a higher LAP burden and higher frequency of napkin-ring signs. These findings may help explain the common occurrence of prediabetes in patients with acute myocardial infarction.

Imeglimin is a novel oral antidiabetic agent that improves glucose tolerance. This study aimed to investigate the efficacy of combining imeglimin with dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitor (DPP-4i), the most frequently prescribed first-line treatment for patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) in Japan, to improve glycemic control.

Eleven patients with T2D treated with DPP-4i alone (6.5% ≤ hemoglobin A1C [HbA1c] < 10%) received 1000 mg imeglimin twice daily for 16 weeks. A meal tolerance test (MTT) was conducted on seven of these patients to assess parameters associated with islet function or insulin tolerance, such as homeostasis model assessment (HOMA)-β-cell function (HOMA-β), HOMA-insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), C-peptide immunoreactivity (CPR) index, and glucagon kinetics. Continuous glucose monitoring was conducted to evaluate parameters for glycemic variability.

Sixteen weeks after imeglimin administration, the HbA1c level improved from 7.5%±1.3% to 6.5%±0.5% (p < 0.05), the casual blood glucose level significantly improved from 168.2±55.4 to 127.8±20.0 mg/dL (p=0.027), time in range increased from 65.0%±0.34% to 90.0%±0.08% (p < 0.05), and time above range reduced from 34.0%±0.034% to 9.0%±0.08% (p < 0.05). During MTT, we observed significantly reduced area under the curve (AUC)0-180 glucose, increased AUC0-180 CPR/AUC0-180 glucose, CPR index, and HOMA-β (p<0.05). HOMA-IR and glucagon kinetics did not change with the addition of imeglimin.

The addition of imeglimin to DPP-4i significantly improved glycemic control and glycemic variability, based on increased glucose-induced insulin secretion, indicating its potential as a therapeutic option for patients with T2D.

This sub-analysis of the ePREDICE trial, investigated the prevalence and determinants of renal complications, specifically glomerular hyperfiltration, albuminuria, and reduced kidney function, in individuals with prediabetes (PD). The cohort consisted of 967 participants from diverse backgrounds across seven countries. The kidney function was evaluated using the MDRD-4 equation, and the influence of various clinical and demographic factors on renal involvement was assessed by multivariable regression models. Additionally, insulinogenic and disposition indices were examined. Overall, the prevalence of renal abnormalities in this PD cohort was 9.2% (n = 89). Key findings included the detection of hyperfiltration in 20 (2%) individuals, albuminuria in 45 (4.7%), and CKD stage G3a in 29 (3%). Hyperfiltration was inversely correlated with age and height, while albuminuria showed a significant direct association with the disposition index (DI). Age and waist circumference were significantly and directly associated with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). The ePREDICE study highlights critical factors that affect renal involvement in PD individuals, revealing complex interactions among various parameters. These findings further emphasize the necessity for the search of early kidney abnormalities in people with PD especially in those in older age groups and with a large waist circumference.

Microvascular and macrovascular complications in type 1 diabetes (T1D) may be linked to endothelial stress due to glycaemic variability. Continuous glucose monitoring systems (CGMs) provide new opportunities to quantify this variability, utilising the amplitude of glucose change summated over time. The aim of this study was to examine whether this determination of glucose variability (GV) is associated with microvascular clinical sequelae.

Continuous glucose monitoring values were downloaded for 89 type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1D) individuals for up to 18 months from 2021 to 2023. Data for patient demographics was also taken from the patient record which included Sex, Date of Birth, and Date of Diagnosis. The recorded laboratory glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) test results were also recorded. The glucose management index (GMI) was calculated from average glucose readings for 18 months using the formula GMI (%) = (0.82-(Average glucose/100)). This was then adjusted to give GMI (mmol/mol) = 10.929 * (GMI (%) - 2.15). Average Glucose Fluctuation (AGF) was calculated by adding up the total absolute change value between all recorded results over 18 months and dividing by the number of results minus one. The % Above Critical Threshold (ACT) was calculated by summing the total number of occurrences for each result value. A cumulative 95% limit was then applied to identify the glucose value that only 5% of results exceeded in the overall population. Using this value, we estimated the percentage of total tests that were above the Critical Threshold (ACT).

Results for the 89 individuals (44 men and 45 women) were analysed over 18 months. The mean age of participants was 43 years and the mean duration of diabetes was 18 years. A total of 3.22 million readings were analysed, giving an average of 10.3 mmol/L blood glucose. Those with the largest change in glucose from reading to reading, summated over time, showed the greatest change in eGFR of 3.12 ml/min/1.73 m2 (p = 0.007). People with a higher proportion of glucose readings > 18 mmol/L showed a fall in eGFR of 2.8 ml/min/1.73 m2 (p = 0.009) and experienced higher rates of sight-threatening retinopathy (44% of these individuals) (p = 0.01) as did 39% of individuals in the highest tertile of glucose levels (p = 0.008).

Those individuals with T1D in the highest tertile of reading-to-reading glucose change showed the greatest change in eGFR. Those with a higher proportion of glucose readings > 18 mmol/L also showed a fall in eGFR and experienced higher rates of sight-threatening retinopathy, as did people with higher mean glucose. Discussions with T1D individuals could reflect on how the percentage recorded glucose above a critical level and degree of change in glucose are important in avoiding future tissue complications.

Glucose perturbations can be detected by fasting plasma glucose (FPG), HbA1c, and the oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT). The highest yield is provided by OGTT. HbA1c is considered more practical. We compare the diagnostic and predictive performance of these glycaemic indicators based on combined data from the EUROASPIRE IV (EAIV) and V (EAV) studies.

This cohort study was conducted in 79 centres in 24 European countries (EAIV) and 131 centres in 27 European countries (EAV). Eligible patients were aged 18-80 years, did not have diabetes, and were diagnosed with coronary artery disease 6-36 months (EAIV) or 6-24 months (EAV) before the investigation. Patients were investigated with OGTT (FPG and 2 h post-load glucose [2-hPG]) and HbA1c. Follow-up of subsequent cardiovascular events was done by means of a questionnaire at least 1 year after the baseline investigation. Analyses were done in patients with both OGTT and HbA1c data available. Outcome analysis in these patients was restricted to those with valid follow-up data available.

16 259 patients were interviewed in EAIV (2012-13) and EAV (2016-17). 8364 patients had both OGTT and HbA1C data and were included in the analysis population (3932 in EAIV and 4432 in EAV). Information on cardiovascular events was available in 7892 patients. Follow-up was for a median 1·6 years (IQR 1·2-2·0). The average patient age was 63·3 years (SD 9·8), and 6346 (75·9%) of 8364 patients were men. At baseline, 1856 (22·5%) of 8263 patients were determined to have newly detected type 2 diabetes using OGTT alone, compared with 346 (4·2%) using HbA1c alone. New dysglycaemia, defined as newly detected type 2 diabetes or impaired glucose tolerance (IGT), was present in 3896 (47·1%) of the patients according to 2hPG. 2hPG 9 mmol/L or greater (162 mg/dL, adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1·58; 95% CI 1·27-1·95, p<0·0001), and HbA1c 5·9% or greater (41 mmol/mol, aHR 1·48, 1·19-1·84; p=0·0010) were the strongest predictors of cardiovascular events, while FPG did not predict. A multivariable model showed that the effect of HbA1c on cardiovascular events was mainly explained by 2hPG (aHR for 1 unit increase in HbA1c 1·13, 0·98-1·30; p=0·11; and aHR for 1 unit increase in Ln[2hPG] 1·37, 1·08-1·74; p=0·0042).

2hPG appears better than HbA1c in detecting dysglycaemia and predicting its impact on future cardiovascular events in patients with coronary artery disease and should be recommended as the primary screening tool.

Swedish Heart-Lung Foundation, Region Stockholm (ALF), the Erling Persson Foundation, the Baltic Child Foundation.

Background: Prediabetes has become a global health issue, and currently, the relationship between vitamin levels and mortality in prediabetes remains unclear. This study aims to investigate the association between the levels of eleven vitamins and all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in prediabetes patients. Methods: This cross-sectional study included 14 634 prediabetes patients from 10 cycles of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey between 1999 and 2018. Mortality and underlying causes of death were determined by linking records from the National Death Index until December 31, 2019. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models were established to assess hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals for all-cause, CVD, cancer, and other mortalities. Restricted cubic splines were used to visualize non-linear associations between various vitamins and mortality risk. Results: During the follow-up period, 2316/14 634 prediabetes patients died (12.55%), with 722 deaths (3.68%) attributed to CVD. After multivariable adjustment, vitamin B1, niacin, folate, vitamin C, vitamin E, and vitamin K levels exhibited non-linear associations with all-cause mortality (all p < 0.05). Vitamin B1, niacin, and vitamin E levels showed non-linear associations with CVD mortality (p < 0.05). Vitamin B6 exhibited a linear negative association with all-cause, CVD, and other mortalities (p > 0.05). However, vitamins A and B2 levels were not significantly associated with mortality rates (all p > 0.05). Consistent results were observed in the subgroup analyses after complete adjustment for variables. Conclusions: Higher levels of dietary vitamins B1, B6, niacin, folate, vitamin C, vitamin E, and vitamin K were significantly associated with lower risk of all-cause mortality and CVD mortality in patients with prediabetes. There was no association between vitamin A and B2 levels and all-cause and CVD mortality among individuals with prediabetes. These findings suggest the importance of correcting vitamin deficiencies to prevent mortality in prediabetes patients.

Given the limited evidence on the relationship between the triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index and the risk of prediabetes among young adults, our study aimed to investigate the potential impact of the TyG index on the future development of prediabetes in young individuals.

This retrospective cohort study included 125,327 healthy adults aged 20 to 45 years. We utilized Cox proportional hazards regression models, combined with cubic spline functions and smooth curve fitting, to assess the relationship between baseline TyG index and the risk of prediabetes among young adults, exploring its non-linear association. A series of sensitivity analyses and subgroup analyses were conducted to ensure the robustness of our findings.

After adjusting for covariates, the study found a positive correlation between the TyG index and the risk of prediabetes (HR=1.81, 95%CI: 1.54-2.13, p<0.0001). The risk of prediabetes increased progressively across quartiles of the TyG index (Q1 to Q4), with Q4 showing a significantly higher risk compared to Q1 (adjusted HR=2.33, 95% CI=1.72-3.16). Moreover, a non-linear relationship was identified between the TyG index and the risk of prediabetes, with an inflection point at 9.39. To the left of the inflection point, the HR was 2.04 (95% CI: 1.69 to 2.46), while to the right, the HR was 0.89 (95% CI: 0.48 to 1.65).

Our study reveals a non-linear relationship and a saturation effect between the TyG index and the development of prediabetes among young individuals in China, with an inflection point at 9.39. Understanding this non-linear relationship can assist clinicians in identifying young individuals at high risk and implementing targeted interventions to reduce their risk of progressing to diabetes.

Acute hyperglycemia is a transient increase in plasma glucose level (PGL) frequently observed in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). The aim of this review is to clarify the molecular mechanisms whereby acute hyperglycemia impacts coronary flow and myocardial perfusion in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and to discuss the consequent clinical and prognostic implications. We conducted a comprehensive literature review on the molecular causes of myocardial damage driven by acute hyperglycemia in the context of AMI. The negative impact of high PGL on admission recognizes a multifactorial etiology involving endothelial function, oxidative stress, production of leukocyte adhesion molecules, platelet aggregation, and activation of the coagulation cascade. The current evidence suggests that all these pathophysiological mechanisms compromise myocardial perfusion as a whole and not only in the culprit coronary artery. Acute hyperglycemia on admission, regardless of whether or not in the context of a diabetes mellitus history, could be, thus, identified as a predictor of worse myocardial reperfusion and poorer prognosis in patients with AMI. In order to reduce hyperglycemia-related complications, it seems rational to pursue in these patients an adequate and quick control of PGL, despite the best pharmacological treatment for acute hyperglycemia still remaining a matter of debate.

Elevated skeletal muscle diacylglycerols (DAGs) and ceramides can impair insulin signaling, and acylcarnitines (acylCNs) reflect impaired mitochondrial fatty acid oxidation, thus, the intramuscular lipid profile is indicative of insulin resistance. Acute (i.e., postprandial) hyperinsulinemia has been shown to elevate lipid concentrations in healthy muscle and is an independent risk factor for type 2 diabetes (T2D). However, it is unclear how the relationship between acute hyperinsulinemia and the muscle lipidome interacts across metabolic phenotypes, thus contributing to or exacerbating insulin resistance. We therefore investigated the impact of acute hyperinsulinemia on the skeletal muscle lipid profile to help characterize the physiological basis in which hyperinsulinemia elevates T2D risk. In a cross-sectional comparison, endurance athletes (n = 12), sedentary lean adults (n = 12), and individuals with obesity (n = 13) and T2D (n = 7) underwent a hyperinsulinemic-euglycemic clamp with muscle biopsies. Although there were no significant differences in total 1,2-DAG fluctuations, there was a 2% decrease in athletes versus a 53% increase in T2D during acute hyperinsulinemia (P = 0.087). Moreover, C18 1,2-DAG species increased during the clamp with T2D only, which negatively correlated with insulin sensitivity (P < 0.050). Basal muscle C18:0 total ceramides were elevated with T2D (P = 0.029), but not altered by clamp. Acylcarnitines were universally lowered during hyperinsulinemia, with more robust reductions of 80% in athletes compared with only 46% with T2D (albeit not statistically significant, main effect of group, P = 0.624). Similar fluctuations with acute hyperinsulinemia increasing 1,2 DAGs in insulin-resistant phenotypes and universally lowering acylcarnitines were observed in male mice. In conclusion, acute hyperinsulinemia elevates muscle 1,2-DAG levels with insulin-resistant phenotypes. This suggests a possible dysregulation of intramuscular lipid metabolism in the fed state in individuals with low insulin sensitivity, which may exacerbate insulin resistance.NEW & NOTEWORTHY Postprandial hyperinsulinemia is a risk factor for type 2 diabetes and may increase muscle lipids. However, it is unclear how the relationship between acute hyperinsulinemia and the muscle lipidome interacts across metabolic phenotypes, thus contributing to insulin resistance. We observed that acute hyperinsulinemia elevates muscle 1,2-DAGs in insulin-resistant phenotypes, whereas ceramides were unaltered. Insulin-mediated acylcarnitine reductions are also hindered with high-fat feeding. The postprandial period may exacerbate insulin resistance in metabolically unhealthy phenotypes.

Evidence-based guidelines provide the premise for the delivery of quality care to preserve health and prevent disabilities and premature death. The systematic gathering of observational, mechanistic and experimental data contributes to the hierarchy of evidence used to guide clinical practice. In the field of diabetes, metformin was discovered more than 100 years ago, and with 60 years of clinical use, it has stood the test of time regarding its value in the prevention and management of type 2 diabetes. Although some guidelines have challenged the role of metformin as the first-line glucose-lowering drug, it is important to point out that the cardiovascular-renal protective effects of sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitors and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists were gathered from patients with type 2 diabetes, the majority of whom were treated with metformin. Most national, regional and international guidelines recommend metformin as a foundation therapy with emphasis on avoidance of therapeutic inertia and early attainment of multiple treatment goals. Moreover, real-world evidence has confirmed the glucose-lowering and cardiovascular-renal benefits of metformin accompanied by an extremely low risk of lactic acidosis. In patients with type 2 diabetes and advanced chronic kidney disease (estimated glomerular filtration rate 15-30 mL/min/1.73m2), metformin discontinuation was associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular-renal events compared with metformin persistence. Meanwhile, it is understood that microbiota, nutrients and metformin can interact through the gut-brain-kidney axis to modulate homeostasis of bioactive molecules, systemic inflammation and energy metabolism. While these biological changes contribute to the multisystem effects of metformin, they may also explain the gastrointestinal side effects and vitamin B12 deficiency associated with metformin intolerance. By understanding the interactions between metformin, foods and microbiota, healthcare professionals are in a better position to optimize the use of metformin and mitigate potential side effects. The United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study and the Da Qing Diabetes Prevention Program commenced 40 years ago provided the first evidence that type 2 diabetes is preventable and treatable. To drive real-world impact from this evidence, payors, practitioners and planners need to co-design and implement an integrated, data-driven, metformin-based programme to detect people with undiagnosed diabetes and prediabetes (intermediate hyperglycaemia), notably impaired glucose tolerance, for early intervention. The systematic data collection will create real-world evidence to bring out the best of metformin and make healthcare sustainable, affordable and accessible.

Probiotics have been considered a promising option for mitigating the progression of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Here, Latilactobacillus sakei QC9 (L. sakei QC9) with a hypoglycemic effect was screened out from 30 food-derived strains through α-glucosidase and α-amylase activity inhibition tests in vitro and a 4-week in vivo preliminary animal experiment. To further understand its alleviating effect on long-term hyperglycaemia occurring in T2DM, we conducted an experiment that lasted for 8 weeks. The results showed that taking L. sakei QC9 can regulate glucose and lipid metabolism while improving the antioxidant capacity and alleviating chronic inflammation. In addition, our results demonstrated that L. sakei QC9 may mediate the microbiota-gut-liver axis by regulating the composition of intestinal flora (increasing the abundance of butyrate-producing bacteria) and increasing the content of short-chain fatty acids (especially butyrate), affecting the PI3K/Akt signalling pathway in the liver, thereby achieving the purpose of alleviating the development of T2DM. In summary, our work is the first to prove the long-term hypoglycemic effect of L. sakei in high-fat diet (HFD) and streptozotocin (STZ)-induced T2DM mice and supports the possibility of L. sakei QC9 being used as a new treatment for alleviating T2DM.

Plant extracts are increasingly recognized for their potential in modulating (postprandial) blood glucose levels. In this context, root extracts are of particular interest due to their high concentrations and often unique spectrum of plant bioactives. To identify new plant species with potential glucose-lowering activity, simple and robust methodologies are often required. For this narrative review, literature was sourced from scientific databases (primarily PubMed) in the period from June 2022 to January 2024. The regulatory targets of glucose homeostasis that could be modulated by bioactive plant compounds were used as search terms, either alone or in combination with the keyword "root extract". As a result, we present a comprehensive methodological toolbox for studying the glucose homeostasis modulating properties of plant extracts and its constituents. The described assays encompass in-vitro investigations involving enzyme inhibition (α-amylase, α-glucosidase, dipeptidyl peptidase 4), assessment of sodium-dependent glucose transporter 1 activity, and evaluation of glucose transporter 4 translocation. Furthermore, we describe a patch-clamp technique to assess the impact of extracts on KATP channels. While validating in-vitro findings in living organisms is imperative, we introduce two screenable in-vivo models (the hen's egg test and Drosophila melanogaster). Given that evaluation of the bioactivity of plant extracts in rodents and humans represents the current gold standard, we include approaches addressing this aspect. In summary, this review offers a systematic guide for screening plant extracts regarding their influence on key regulatory elements of glucose homeostasis, culminating in the assessment of their potential efficacy in-vivo. Moreover, application of the presented toolbox might contribute to further close the knowledge gap on the precise mechanisms of action of plant-derived compounds.

To investigate the relationship between short-term glycemic variability in patients with T2DM and the vulnerability of intracranial atherosclerotic plaques using HR-MR-VWI.

In total, 203 patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS)/transient ischemia (TIA) combined with T2DM were enrolled. All of them underwent HR-MR-VWI during the period between July 2020 and July 2023. 203 patients were divided into groups with higher (1,5-AG≤ 30.7 μmol/L) and lower (1,5-AG> 30.7 μmol/L) short-term glycemic variability. Patients were also divided into the T1WI and non-T1WI hyperintensity groups. Associated factors(FBG, HbA1c, and 1,5-AG)for the T1WI hyperintensity were analyzed by binary logistic regression. We used the area under the curve (AUC), while the sensitivity and specificity were calculated at the optimal threshold. The Delong test was employed to compare the quality of the AUC of the predictors.

The group with higher short-term glycemic variability had a higher incidence of the hyperintensity on T1WI, higher degree of enhancement, higher degree of stenosis and smaller lumen area (P < 0.05). The T1WI hyperintensity group had higher HbA1c levels, higher hemoglobin levels and lower 1,5-AG levels(P < 0.05). 1,5-AG (OR = 0.971, 95 % CI: 0.954∼0.988, P = 0.001), HbA1c (OR=1.305, 95 % CI: 1.065∼1.598, P = 0.01) and male sex (OR = 2.048, 95 % CI: 1.016∼4.128, P = 0.045)/(OR=2.102, 95 % CI: 1.058∼4.177, P = 0.034) were independent risk factors for the hyperintensity on T1WI. 1,5-AG demonstrated enhanced performance and yielded the highest AUC of the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC = 0.726), with sensitivity and specificity values of 0.727 and 0.635 respectively.

1,5-AG, HbA1c and male sex are independent predictors of intracranial plaques with T1WI hyperintensity, the greater short-term glycemic variability, the higher incidence of vulnerable plaques.

Existing differences in persons with lower 30- or 60-minute plasma glucose (PG) levels during 75-g oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) than fasting PG remain unclear.

To clarify the characteristics of persons whose PG levels decrease after glucose administration during OGTT and their risk of incidence of diabetes in a Japanese general population.

In this cohort study, a total of 3995 men and 3500 women (mean age 56.7 years) without diabetes were classified into 3 groups: (1) PG at both 30 and 60 minutes ≥ fasting PG; (2) PG at 30 minutes ≥ fasting PG and PG at 60 minutes < fasting PG; (3) PG at 30 minutes < fasting PG. The characteristics and the risk of diabetes onset were analyzed using ordered logistic regression and Cox proportional hazard regression, respectively.

Among 7495 participants, the numbers of individuals in the group 1, 2, and 3 were 6552, 769, and 174, respectively. The glucose response curve of the group 3 was boat shaped. Group 3 had the youngest age, lowest percentage of men, and best health condition, followed by groups 2 and 1. Among 3897 participants analyzed prospectively, 434 developed diabetes during the mean follow-up period of 5.8 years. The hazard ratio for diabetes onset in the group 2 was 0.30 with reference to the group 1. No-one in group 3 developed diabetes.

People with lower 30-minute PG than fasting PG tended to be women, young, healthy, and at low risk of diabetes onset.

Prediabetes (PD) is defined as impaired fasting glucose and/or impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) and may be associated with high risk of cardiovascular injury. It is recommended that PD patients be screened for signs of arterial stiffness and cardiovascular injury to reinforce therapeutic strategies.

To identify pulse wave velocity values discriminative for arterial stiffness and cardiovascular injury in PD patients.

A cross-sectional study was conducted with PD (N=43) and normoglycemic (N=37) patients who underwent clinical evaluation, arterial stiffness assessment by carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (cfPWV) using SphygmoCor, laboratory blood analysis, investigation of morphological and functional cardiac variables by transthoracic echocardiogram, and assessment of carotid intima-media-thickness (CIMT) by carotid ultrasonography. A statistical analysis was performed using SPSS software and values of p<0.05 were considered significant.

A cfPWV cut-off value of 6.9 m/s was identified for IGT (Sensitivity [SE]: 74% and Specificity [SP]: 51%). Comparison of general data and risk factors between subsets with values above and below this cutoff value revealed higher rates of fasting glucose (p=0.02), obesity (p=0.03), dyslipidemia (p=0.004), early signs of left ventricle (p=0.017) and right ventricle (p=0.03) impaired diastolic function, and elevated CIMT in subjects with cfPWV ≥ 6.9m/s (p=0.04).

In PD patients, a cfPWV cutoff of 6.9 m/s was considered a discriminative value for arterial stiffness. These findings highlight the value of early investigation of cardiovascular injury and aggressive therapy strategies with good control of risk factors in PD.

Few studies have examined the influence of pre-exercise meals with different glycaemic indices (GIs) on substrate oxidation and non-homeostatic appetite (i.e. food reward) in adults of various ages and ethnicities. We aimed to examine the effects of pre-exercise high and low GI meals on substrate oxidation and food reward in middle-aged Japanese women. This randomised crossover trial included fifteen middle-aged women (aged 40⋅9 ± 6⋅5 years, mean ± sd). The participants consumed a high or low GI breakfast at 09.00 and rested until 11.00. Thereafter, participants performed a 60-min walk at 50 % of their estimated maximum oxygen uptake (11.00-12.00) and rested until 13.00. Expired gas samples were collected every 30 min prior to walking, and samples were collected continuously throughout the walking and post-walking periods. Blood samples and subjective appetite ratings were collected every 30 min, except during walking. The Leeds Food Preference Questionnaire in Japanese (LFPQ-J) was used to assess food reward at 09.00, 10.00, and 13.00 h. The cumulative fat oxidation during exercise was higher in the low GI trial than in the high GI trial (P = 0⋅03). The cumulative carbohydrate oxidation during walking was lower in the low GI trial than in the high GI trial (P = 0⋅01). Trial-by-time interactions were not found for any food-reward parameters between trials. Low GI meals elicited enhanced fat oxidation during a subsequent 60-min walk in middle-aged women. However, meals with different GIs did not affect food reward evaluated over time in the present study.

Diabetes mellitus (DM) is strongly associated with an increased risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). Proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9) was recently identified as an important regulator of circulating low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C) levels via degradation of the LDL receptor, proving to be a valid target to improve lipoprotein profiles and cardiovascular outcomes in patients with ASCVD. Beyond LDL receptor processing and cholesterol homeostasis, the PCSK9 protein has recently been verified to be associated with glucose metabolism. Importantly, clinical trials suggest that treatment with PCSK9 inhibitors for patients with DM is more effective. Hence, in this review, we summarize the current findings derived from experimental, preclinical, and clinical studies regarding the association between PCSK9 and glucose metabolism, including the relationship of PCSK9 genetic mutations to glucose metabolism and diabetes, the link between plasma PCSK9 concentrations and glucose metabolic parameters, the effects of glucose-lowering drugs on plasma PCSK9 levels and the impacts of PCSK9 inhibitors on cardiovascular outcomes of patients with DM. Clinically, exploring this field may improve our understanding regarding the roles of PCSK9 in glucose metabolism and may offer an in-depth interpretation of how PCSK9 inhibitors exert effects on the treatment of patients with DM.

Prediabetes, an intermediate stage between normal glucose regulation and diabetes, affects 1 in 3 adults in the US and approximately 720 million individuals worldwide.

Prediabetes is defined by a fasting glucose level of 100 to 125 mg/dL, a glucose level of 140 to 199 mg/dL measured 2 hours after a 75-g oral glucose load, or glycated hemoglobin level (HbA1C) of 5.7% to 6.4% or 6.0% to 6.4%. In the US, approximately 10% of people with prediabetes progress to having diabetes each year. A meta-analysis found that prediabetes at baseline was associated with increased mortality and increased cardiovascular event rates (excess absolute risk, 7.36 per 10 000 person-years for mortality and 8.75 per 10 000 person-years for cardiovascular disease during 6.6 years). Intensive lifestyle modification, consisting of calorie restriction, increased physical activity (≥150 min/wk), self-monitoring, and motivational support, decreased the incidence of diabetes by 6.2 cases per 100 person-years during a 3-year period. Metformin decreased the risk of diabetes among individuals with prediabetes by 3.2 cases per 100 person-years during 3 years. Metformin is most effective for women with prior gestational diabetes and for individuals younger than 60 years with body mass index of 35 or greater, fasting plasma glucose level of 110 mg/dL or higher, or HbA1c level of 6.0% or higher.

Prediabetes is associated with increased risk of diabetes, cardiovascular events, and mortality. First-line therapy for prediabetes is lifestyle modification that includes weight loss and exercise or metformin. Lifestyle modification is associated with a larger benefit than metformin.

Hepatalin is a hormone secreted by the liver in response to pulses of insulin after a mixed nutrient meal, but only if the liver receives two permissive synergistic feeding signals from the stomach. Hepatalin stimulates glucose uptake and storage as glycogen in skeletal muscle, heart, and kidney but not liver, intestines, or adipocytes. Insulin acts primarily on liver and fat. Reduced hepatalin action results in postprandial hyperglycemia, compensatory elevation of insulin secretion, and a resultant shift in partitioning of nutrient energy storage from glycogen in muscle, to fat. Chronic hepatalin suppression leads to a predictable chronology of dysfunctions, first diagnosable as Absence of Meal-induced Insulin Sensitization (AMIS) which progresses to prediabetes, adiposity, and type 2 diabetes. The focus on nutrient partitioning and the role of hepatalin allows AMIS to be diagnosed, prevented, and treated, including through the use of lifestyle interventions.

Our work is aimed at unraveling the role of the first-phase insulin secretion in the natural history of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and its interrelationship with insulin resistance and with β cell function and mass. Starting from pathophysiology, we investigate the impact of impaired secretion on glucose homeostasis and explore postmeal hyperglycemia as the main clinical feature, underlining its relevance in the management of the disease. We also review dietary and pharmacological approaches aimed at improving early secretory defects and restoring residual β cell function. Furthermore, we discuss possible approaches to detect early secretory defects in clinical practice. By providing a journey through human and animal data, we attempt a unification of the recent evidence in an effort to offer a new outlook on β cell secretion.

Rapid conversion from prediabetes to diabetes and frequent postprandial hyperglycemia (PPHG) is seen in Asian Indians. These should be the target of dietary strategies.

We hypothesized that dietary intervention of preloading major meals with almonds in participants with prediabetes will decrease overall glycemia and PPHG.

The study included two phases: (1) an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT)-based crossover randomized control study, the effect of a single premeal almond load (20 g) given before OGTT was evaluated (n = 60, 30 each period). (2) The continuous glucose monitoring system (CGMS)-based study for 3 days including premeal almond load before three major meals was a free-living, open-labeled, crossover randomized control trial, where control and premeal almond load diets were compared for glycaemic control (n = 60, 30 in each period). The study was registered at clinicaltrials.gov (registration no. NCT04769726).

In the OGTT-based study phase, the overall AUC for blood glucose, serum insulin, C-peptide, and plasma glucagon post-75 g oral glucose load was significantly lower for treatment vs. control diet (p < 0.001). Specifically, with the former diet, PPHG was significantly lower (18.05% in AUC on OGTT, 24.8% at 1-h, 28.9% at 2-h post OGTT, and 10.07% during CGMS). The CGMS data showed that premeal almond load significantly improved 24-glucose variability; SD of mean glucose concentration and mean of daily differences. Daily glycaemic control improved significantly as per the following: mean 24-h blood glucose concentration (M), time spent above 7.8 mmol/L of blood glucose, together with the corresponding AUC values. Premeal almond load significantly decreased following: overall hyperglycemia (glucose AUC), PPHG, peak 24-h glycaemia, and minimum glucose level during night.

Incorporation of 20 g of almonds, 30 min before each major meal led to a significant decrease in PPHG (as revealed in OGTT-based study phase) and also improved insulin, C-peptide, glucagon levels, and improved glucose variability and glycemic parameters on CGMS in participants with prediabetes.

The study was registered at clinicaltrials.gov (registration no. NCT04769726).

Glucose tolerance is controlled by the internal clock and is worse in the evening. From a chrononutrition perspective, diabetes prevention requires evaluating the antidiabetic effects of the timing of functional ingredients and nutrient intake. The purpose of this study was to investigate the timing effects of acute mulberry leaf extract (MLE) intake on postprandial glucose levels in young adults.

Twelve young adults underwent four trials. Blood samples were collected in a fasting state and at 30, 60, 120, and 180 min after eating a mixed meal. The study had a randomised, placebo-controlled, double-blind trial design involving: (1) morning placebo trial (08:00 h; MP trial), (2) evening placebo trial (18:00 h; EP trial), (3) morning MLE trial (08:00 h; MM trial), and (4) evening MLE trial (18:00 h; EM trial).

The incremental area under the blood glucose curve (iAUC) in the EM trials was significantly lower than that in the EP trials (P = 0.010). The postprandial glucose concentrations 120 min after the meal were significantly lower in the EM trials than those in the EP trials (P = 0.006). The postprandial insulin concentrations at 120 min were significantly lower in the MM trials than those in the MP trials (P = 0.034). Moreover, the postprandial insulin concentrations 180 min after the meal were significantly lower in the EM trials than those in the EP trials (P = 0.034).

MLE intake in the evening, but not in the morning, was effective in improving glucose tolerance.

Clinical trial reference: UMIN 000045301; website of trial registry: https://center6.umin.ac.jp/cgi-open-bin/ctr/ctr_view.cgi?recptno=R000051340 .

The term, "prediabetes", describes a state of hyperglycaemia that is intermediate between true normoglycaemia and the diagnostic cut-offs for indices of glycaemia that are used to diagnose type 2 diabetes. The presence of prediabetes markedly increases the risk of developing type 2 diabetes. Numerous randomized, controlled evaluations of various agents have demonstrated significant prevention or delay of the onset of type 2 diabetes in subjects with prediabetes. Intensive lifestyle interventions and metformin have been studied most widely, with the lifestyle intervention being more effective in the majority of subjects. The application of therapeutic interventions at the time of prediabetes to preserve long-term outcomes has been controversial, however, due to a lack of evidence relating to the pathogenic effects of prediabetes and the effectiveness of interventions to produce a long-term clinical benefit. Recent studies have confirmed that prediabetes, however defined, is associated with a significantly increased risk of macrovascular and microvascular complications essentially identical to those of diabetes, and also with subclinical derangements of the function of microvasculature and neurons that likely signify increased risk of compilations in future. Normoglycaemia, prediabetes and type 2 diabetes appear to be part of a continuum of increased risk of adverse outcomes. Long-term (25-30 years) post-trial follow up of two major diabetes prevention trials have shown that short-term interventions to prevent diabetes lead to long-term reductions in the risk of complications. These findings support the concept of therapeutic intervention to preserve long-term health in people with prediabetes before type 2 diabetes becomes established.

This study aimed to assess the association between changes in metabolic phenotypes and incident type 2 diabetes.

This retrospective cohort study included participants from a medical health checkup program conducted by the Panasonic Corporation, Japan, between 2008 and 2018. The metabolic phenotypes of the participants in 2008 and 2013 were assessed. The association between changes in metabolic phenotypes from 2008 to 2013 and incident type 2 diabetes (n = 58,638) were evaluated for a 5-year follow-up using Cox regression analyses.

The stable, metabolically healthy obesity group was associated with a higher risk of incident type 2 diabetes than the stable, metabolically healthy nonobesity (MHNO) group (hazard ratio [HR] 3.22, 95% CI: 2.71-3.83). When participants with metabolically healthy obesity experienced a change to MHNO, their risk of incident type 2 diabetes was similar to that of participants in the stable MHNO group (HR 1.28, 95% CI: 0.78-1.90). Once the participants had metabolic abnormalities, the risk of incident type 2 diabetes was higher than that in the stable MHNO group, even after undergoing a change to MHNO.

This study demonstrates that it is important to pay attention to the changes in metabolic phenotypes to prevent incident type 2 diabetes in Japanese populations.

The objective of this clinical practice guideline is to provide updated and new evidence-based recommendations for the comprehensive care of persons with diabetes mellitus to clinicians, diabetes-care teams, other health care professionals and stakeholders, and individuals with diabetes and their caregivers.

The American Association of Clinical Endocrinology selected a task force of medical experts and staff who updated and assessed clinical questions and recommendations from the prior 2015 version of this guideline and conducted literature searches for relevant scientific papers published from January 1, 2015, through May 15, 2022. Selected studies from results of literature searches composed the evidence base to update 2015 recommendations as well as to develop new recommendations based on review of clinical evidence, current practice, expertise, and consensus, according to established American Association of Clinical Endocrinology protocol for guideline development.

This guideline includes 170 updated and new evidence-based clinical practice recommendations for the comprehensive care of persons with diabetes. Recommendations are divided into four sections: (1) screening, diagnosis, glycemic targets, and glycemic monitoring; (2) comorbidities and complications, including obesity and management with lifestyle, nutrition, and bariatric surgery, hypertension, dyslipidemia, retinopathy, neuropathy, diabetic kidney disease, and cardiovascular disease; (3) management of prediabetes, type 2 diabetes with antihyperglycemic pharmacotherapy and glycemic targets, type 1 diabetes with insulin therapy, hypoglycemia, hospitalized persons, and women with diabetes in pregnancy; (4) education and new topics regarding diabetes and infertility, nutritional supplements, secondary diabetes, social determinants of health, and virtual care, as well as updated recommendations on cancer risk, nonpharmacologic components of pediatric care plans, depression, education and team approach, occupational risk, role of sleep medicine, and vaccinations in persons with diabetes.

This updated clinical practice guideline provides evidence-based recommendations to assist with person-centered, team-based clinical decision-making to improve the care of persons with diabetes mellitus.

Among the various pathological conditions associated with type 2 diabetes, insulin resistance has long been reported to be a potent risk factor for diabetic complications. The liver, skeletal muscle, and adipose tissue are the major organs of action of insulin in systemic glucose metabolism, but insulin receptors and their downstream insulin signaling molecules are also constitutively expressed in vascular endothelial cells, vascular smooth muscle, and monocytes/macrophages. Forkhead box class O family member proteins (FoxOs) of transcription factors are essential regulators of cellular homeostasis, including glucose and lipid metabolism, oxidative stress response and redox signaling, cell cycle progression and apoptosis. In vascular endothelial cells, FoxOs strongly promote atherosclerosis via suppressing nitric oxide production and enhancing inflammatory responses. In liver sinusoidal endothelial cells, FoxOs induces hepatic insulin resistance by inducing nitration of insulin receptor in hepatocytes. Insulin resistance in adipose tissue limits capacity of lipid accumulation in adipose tissue, which promotes ectopic lipid accumulation and organ dysfunction in liver, vascular, and kidney. Modulation of insulin sensitivity in adipose tissue to induce healthy adipose expansion is expected to be a promising strategy for diabetic complications.

Cardiovascular (CV) disease is the most alarming complication of diabetes mellitus (DM), and a strategy aiming at cardiovascular event prevention in diabetes mellitus has long been debated. Large landmark clinical trials have shown cardiovascular benefits of intensive glycemic control as a 'legacy effect' in newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes mellitus. In contrast, we have learned that excessive intervention aimed at strong glycemic control could cause unexpected cardiovascular death in patients who are resistant to treatments against hyperglycemia. It has also been shown that the comprehensive multifactorial intervention for cardiovascular risk factors that was advocated in the current guideline provided substantial cardiovascular event reduction. The impact of classical antidiabetic agents launched before 1990s on cardiovascular events is controversial. Although there are many clinical or observational studies assessing the impact of those agents on cardiovascular events, the conclusions are inconsistent owing to variable patient backgrounds and concomitant antidiabetic agents among the studies. Moreover, most of them were not large-scale, randomized, cardiovascular outcome trials. In contrast, GLP-1RA (glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist) and SGLT2 (sodium-glucose cotransporter 2) inhibitors have demonstrated undeniable cardiovascular benefits in large-scale, randomized, controlled trials. Whereas GLP-1RAs decrease atherosclerotic disease, especially stroke, SGLT2 inhibitors mainly prevent heart failure. SGLT2 inhibitors are superior to GLP-1RAs with respect to hard renal outcomes. Therefore, it can be said that drugs such as GLP-1RAs and SGLT2 inhibitors that prevent cardiovascular events, in addition to their glucose-lowering effect, are incredible novel tools that we have gained for use in diabetic treatment.

To develop a simple multivariate predictor model of incident type 2 diabetes in general population.

Participants were recruited from the Spanish Di@bet.es cohort study with 2570 subjects meeting all criteria to be included in the at-risk sample studied here. Information was collected using an interviewer-administered structured questionnaire, followed by physical and clinical examination. CHAID algorithm, which collects the information of individuals with and without type 2 diabetes, was used to develop a decision tree based type 2 diabetes prediction model.

156 individuals were identified as having developed type 2 diabetes (6.5% incidence). Fasting plasma glucose (FPG) at the beginning of the study was the main predictive variable for incident type 2 diabetes: FPG ≤ 92 mg/dL (ref.), 92-106 mg/dL (OR = 3.76, 95%CI = 2.36-6.00), > 106 mg/dL (OR = 13.21; 8.26-21.12). More than 25% of subjects starting follow-up with FPG levels > 106 mg/dL developed type 2 diabetes. When FPG <106 mg/dL, other variables (fasting triglycerides (FTGs), BMI or age) were needed. For levels ≤ 92 mg/dL, higher FTGs levels increased risk of incident type 2 diabetes (FTGs > 180 mg/dL, OR = 14.57; 4.89-43.40) compared with the group of FTGs ≤ 97 mg/dL (FTGs  = 97-180 mg/dL, OR = 3.12; 1.05-9.24). This model correctly classified 93.5% of individuals.

The type 2 diabetes prediction model is based on FTGs, FPG, age, gender, and BMI values. Utilizing commonly available clinical data and a simple blood test, a simple tree diagram helps identify subjects at risk of developing type 2 diabetes, even in apparently low risk subjects with normal FPG.