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Coşkun Yaş S, Üçöz Kocaşaban D, Güler S. The role of shock indexes and RDW/albumin ratio in upper gastrointestinal bleeding : Predicting adverse outcomes. Med Klin Intensivmed Notfmed 2025:10.1007/s00063-025-01267-8. [PMID: 40126641 DOI: 10.1007/s00063-025-01267-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/14/2024] [Revised: 01/20/2025] [Accepted: 03/02/2025] [Indexed: 03/26/2025]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is a common condition in emergency departments (ED). The aim of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of the red blood cell distribution width (RDW) to albumin ratio and three types of shock index (SI) as predictors of adverse outcomes in patients with UGIB in the ED. METHODS The study was designed as a retrospective, single-center study, and patients were screened using electronic medical records. Glasgow Blatchford, RDW/albumin ratio, SI, modified SI (MSI), and age SI were calculated, and adverse outcomes were defined as ICU admission, red blood cell transfusion, in-hospital mortality, and 30-day mortality. The effectiveness of these parameters in predicting adverse outcomes in UGIB patients admitted to the ED was evaluated. RESULTS The study enrolled 174 patients, of whom 17.2% required admission to the ICU, 33.9% received red blood cell transfusions, and 10.3% died within 30 days. Patients with adverse outcomes had significantly higher SI, MSI, age SI, and RDW/albumin ratio values. All four indices were statistically significant predictors of adverse outcomes (area under the curve [AUC] SI: 0.676; AUC MSI: 0.706; AUC age SI: 0.778; AUC RDW/albumin: 0.787). Age SI showed significantly higher prognostic performance in predicting adverse outcomes than SI and MSI. CONCLUSION The present study suggests that SI, MSI, age SI, and RDW/albumin ratio may be useful in predicting adverse outcomes in patients with UGIB. The RDW/albumin ratio was effective in predicting mortality, while age SI showed a higher predictive ability for adverse outcomes compared to SI and MSI.
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Affiliation(s)
- Secdegül Coşkun Yaş
- Department of Emergency Medicine, University of Health Sciences, Ankara Training and Research Hospital, Ankara, Türkiye.
| | - Dilber Üçöz Kocaşaban
- Department of Emergency Medicine, University of Health Sciences, Ankara Training and Research Hospital, Ankara, Türkiye
| | - Sertaç Güler
- Department of Emergency Medicine, University of Health Sciences, Ankara Training and Research Hospital, Ankara, Türkiye
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Miao Y, Gu A, Yu G, Tang B. Technological integration in timing of endoscopy: Predictive modeling for acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding outcomes. Technol Health Care 2025:9287329251316050. [PMID: 40007413 DOI: 10.1177/09287329251316050] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/27/2025]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Technological advancements have revolutionized the management of acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (AUGIB). However, the impact of endoscopic timing on treatment outcomes remains a critical area of exploration. OBJECTIVE This study evaluated the role of endoscopic timing in improving treatment outcomes for AUGIB and introduces a predictive model incorporating clinical and technological insights. METHODS A retrospective analysis of AUGIB patients treated between December 2020 and December 2023 was conducted. Logistic regression identified significant predictors of outcomes, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis evaluated their predictive value. A predictive model was developed based on these findings. RESULTS Among 145 patients, 35 (24.1%) experienced rebleeding. Key predictors included endoscopic timing, active bleeding, shock on admission, and bleeding volume (p < 0.05). The predictive model demonstrated robust performance (C-index: 0.885, 95% CI: 0.810-0.956), emphasizing the clinical relevance of precise timing in endoscopic intervention. CONCLUSION This study underscores the importance of integrating technology with clinical practice to optimize endoscopic timing and improve AUGIB outcomes. The predictive model offers a valuable tool for risk stratification and clinical decision-making in modern healthcare settings.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yangde Miao
- Department of Gastroenterology, Taizhou Municipal Hospital of Zhejiang Province, Taizhou, China
| | - Ajun Gu
- Department of Gastroenterology, Taizhou Municipal Hospital of Zhejiang Province, Taizhou, China
| | - Guang Yu
- Department of Gastroenterology, Taizhou Municipal Hospital of Zhejiang Province, Taizhou, China
| | - Binbin Tang
- Department of Gastroenterology, Taizhou Municipal Hospital of Zhejiang Province, Taizhou, China
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Yang J, Han S, Nah S, Chung SP. A novel predictive model for Intensive Care Unit admission in Emergency Department patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding. Medicine (Baltimore) 2024; 103:e40440. [PMID: 39809218 PMCID: PMC11596417 DOI: 10.1097/md.0000000000040440] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/17/2024] [Accepted: 09/19/2024] [Indexed: 01/16/2025] Open
Abstract
Acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is a critical emergency. Conventional scoring models for patients with UGIB have limitations; thus, more suitable tools for the Emergency Department are necessary. We aimed to develop a new model that can identify significant predictors of Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admission in Emergency Department patients with UGIB and to compare its predictive accuracy with that of existing models. We retrospectively analyzed data from patients with UGIB treated between January 2020 and July 2022 at the Emergency Department of a single tertiary medical center. Using multivariable logistic regression and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), we developed a new model to predict the probability of ICU admission. Among 433 patients, multiple logistic regression analysis identified sex, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, hemoglobin level, platelet count, alanine transaminase level, and prothrombin time as significant predictors of ICU admission. Our model demonstrated superior predictive accuracy with an AUROC of 0.8539 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.8078-0.8999), outperforming the Glasgow-Blatchford score and AIMS65 score, which had AUROCs of 0.7598 (95% CI: 0.7067-0.8130) and 0.6930 (95% CI: 0.6324-0.7537), respectively. We implemented this model in a user-friendly calculator for clinical use. We identified key predictors of ICU admission that are crucial for hemodynamic stabilization in patients with UGIB. Our model, combined with this probability calculator, will enhance clinical decision-making and patient care for UGIB in emergency settings.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jinmo Yang
- Department of Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Soonchunhyang University Bucheon Hospital, Bucheon, Republic of Korea
| | - Sangsoo Han
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Soonchunhyang University Bucheon Hospital, Bucheon, Republic of Korea
| | - Sangun Nah
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Soonchunhyang University Bucheon Hospital, Bucheon, Republic of Korea
| | - Sung Phil Chung
- Department of Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Gangnam Severance Hospital, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
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Boustany A, Alali AA, Almadi M, Martel M, Barkun AN. Pre-Endoscopic Scores Predicting Low-Risk Patients with Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis. J Clin Med 2023; 12:5194. [PMID: 37629235 PMCID: PMC10456043 DOI: 10.3390/jcm12165194] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/31/2023] [Revised: 08/01/2023] [Accepted: 08/03/2023] [Indexed: 08/27/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Several risk scores have attempted to risk stratify patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) who are at a lower risk of requiring hospital-based interventions or negative outcomes including death. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to compare predictive abilities of pre-endoscopic scores in prognosticating the absence of adverse events in patients with UGIB. METHODS We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, Central, and ISI Web of knowledge from inception to February 2023. All fully published studies assessing a pre-endoscopic score in patients with UGIB were included. The primary outcome was a composite score for the need of a hospital-based intervention (endoscopic therapy, surgery, angiography, or blood transfusion). Secondary outcomes included: mortality, rebleeding, or the individual endpoints of the composite outcome. Both proportional and comparative analyses were performed. RESULTS Thirty-eight studies were included from 2153 citations, (n = 36,215 patients). Few patients with a low Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS) cutoff (0, ≤1 and ≤2) required hospital-based interventions (0.02 (0.01, 0.05), 0.04 (0.02, 0.09) and 0.03 (0.02, 0.07), respectively). The proportions of patients with clinical Rockall (CRS = 0) and ABC (≤3) scores requiring hospital-based intervention were 0.19 (0.15, 0.24) and 0.69 (0.62, 0.75), respectively. GBS (cutoffs 0, ≤1 and ≤2), CRS (cutoffs 0, ≤1 and ≤2), AIMS65 (cutoffs 0 and ≤1) and ABC (cutoffs ≤1 and ≤3) scores all were associated with few patients (0.01-0.04) dying. The proportion of patients suffering other secondary outcomes varied between scoring systems but, in general, was lowest for the GBS. GBS (using cutoffs 0, ≤1 and ≤2) showed excellent discriminative ability in predicting the need for hospital-based interventions (OR 0.02, (0.00, 0.16), 0.00 (0.00, 0.02) and 0.01 (0.00, 0.01), respectively). A CRS cutoff of 0 was less discriminative. For the other secondary outcomes, discriminative abilities varied between scores but, in general, the GBS (using cutoffs up to 2) was clinically useful for most outcomes. CONCLUSIONS A GBS cut-off of one or less prognosticated low-risk patients the best. Expanding the GBS cut-off to 2 maintains prognostic accuracy while allowing more patients to be managed safely as outpatients. The evidence is limited by the number, homogeneity, quality, and generalizability of available data and subjectivity of deciding on clinical impact. Additional, comparative and, ideally, interventional studies are needed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Antoine Boustany
- Department of Medicine, Cleveland Clinic Foundation, Cleveland, OH 44195, USA;
| | - Ali A. Alali
- Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Kuwait University, Jabriyah 13110, Kuwait;
| | - Majid Almadi
- Department of Medicine, King Saud University, Riyadh 11421, Saudi Arabia;
| | - Myriam Martel
- Research Institute of the McGill University Health Center, Montreal, QC H3G 1A4, Canada;
| | - Alan N. Barkun
- Division of Gastroenterology, McGill University Health Center, McGill University, Montréal, QC H3G 1A4, Canada
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Liu Z, Zhang L, Li G, Bai WH, Wang PX, Jiang GJ, Zhang JX, Zhan LY, Cheng L, Dong WG. A Nomogram Model for Prediction of Mortality Risk of Patients with Dangerous Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding: A Two-center Retrospective Study. Curr Med Sci 2023; 43:723-732. [PMID: 37326886 DOI: 10.1007/s11596-023-2748-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/07/2022] [Accepted: 12/01/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE This study aimed to establish a nomogram model to predict the mortality risk of patients with dangerous upper gastrointestinal bleeding (DUGIB), and identify high-risk patients who require emergent therapy. METHODS From January 2020 to April 2022, the clinical data of 256 DUGIB patients who received treatments in the intensive care unit (ICU) were retrospectively collected from Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University (n=179) and the Eastern Campus of Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University (n=77). The 179 patients were treated as the training cohort, and 77 patients as the validation cohort. Logistic regression analysis was used to calculate the independent risk factors, and R packages were used to construct the nomogram model. The prediction accuracy and identification ability were evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, C index and calibration curve. The nomogram model was also simultaneously externally validated. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was then used to demonstrate the clinical value of the model. RESULTS Logistic regression analysis showed that hematemesis, urea nitrogen level, emergency endoscopy, AIMS65, Glasgow Blatchford score and Rockall score were all independent risk factors for DUGIB. The ROC curve analysis indicated the area under curve (AUC) of the training cohort was 0.980 (95%CI: 0.962-0.997), while the AUC of the validation cohort was 0.790 (95%CI:0.685-0.895). The calibration curves were tested for Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit for both training and validation cohorts (P=0.778, P=0.516). CONCLUSION The developed nomogram is an effective tool for risk stratification, early identification and intervention for DUGIB patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhou Liu
- Department of Intensive Care Unit, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430060, China
| | - Liang Zhang
- Department of Radiology, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430060, China
| | - Guang Li
- Department of Intensive Care Unit, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430060, China
| | - Wen-Hui Bai
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University, Eastern Campus, Wuhan, 430200, China
| | - Pei-Xue Wang
- Department of Gastroenterology, The First People's Hospital of Jingzhou, Jingzhou, 434000, China
- Department of Gastroenterology, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430060, China
| | - Gui-Jun Jiang
- Department of Intensive Care Unit, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430060, China
| | - Ji-Xiang Zhang
- Department of Gastroenterology, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430060, China
| | - Li-Ying Zhan
- Department of Intensive Care Unit, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430060, China.
| | - Li Cheng
- Department of Intensive Care Unit, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University, Eastern Campus, Wuhan, 430200, China.
| | - Wei-Guo Dong
- Department of Gastroenterology, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430060, China.
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Morarasu BC, Sorodoc V, Haisan A, Morarasu S, Bologa C, Haliga RE, Lionte C, Marciuc EA, Elsiddig M, Cimpoesu D, Dimofte GM, Sorodoc L. Age, blood tests and comorbidities and AIMS65 risk scores outperform Glasgow-Blatchford and pre-endoscopic Rockall score in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding. World J Clin Cases 2023; 11:4513-4530. [PMID: 37469720 PMCID: PMC10353516 DOI: 10.12998/wjcc.v11.i19.4513] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/28/2023] [Revised: 05/14/2023] [Accepted: 05/30/2023] [Indexed: 06/30/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Upper gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding is a life-threatening condition with high mortality rates.
AIM To compare the performance of pre-endoscopic risk scores in predicting the following primary outcomes: In-hospital mortality, intervention (endoscopic or surgical) and length of admission (≥ 7 d).
METHODS We performed a retrospective analysis of 363 patients presenting with upper GI bleeding from December 2020 to January 2021. We calculated and compared the area under the receiver operating characteristics curves (AUROCs) of Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS), pre-endoscopic Rockall score (PERS), albumin, international normalized ratio, altered mental status, systolic blood pressure, age older than 65 (AIMS65) and age, blood tests and comorbidities (ABC), including their optimal cut-off in variceal and non-variceal upper GI bleeding cohorts. We subsequently analyzed through a logistic binary regression model, if addition of lactate increased the score performance.
RESULTS All scores had discriminative ability in predicting in-hospital mortality irrespective of study group. AIMS65 score had the best performance in the variceal bleeding group (AUROC = 0.772; P < 0.001), and ABC score (AUROC = 0.775; P < 0.001) in the non-variceal bleeding group. However, ABC score, at a cut-off value of 5.5, was the best predictor (AUROC = 0.770, P = 0.001) of in-hospital mortality in both populations. PERS score was a good predictor for endoscopic treatment (AUC = 0.604; P = 0.046) in the variceal population, while GBS score, (AUROC = 0.722; P = 0.024), outperformed the other scores in predicting surgical intervention. Addition of lactate to AIMS65 score, increases by 5-fold the probability of in-hospital mortality (P < 0.05) and by 12-fold if added to GBS score (P < 0.003). No score proved to be a good predictor for length of admission.
CONCLUSION ABC score is the most accurate in predicting in-hospital mortality in both mixed and non-variceal bleeding population. PERS and GBS should be used to determine need for endoscopic and surgical intervention, respectively. Lactate can be used as an additional tool to risk scores for predicting in-hospital mortality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bianca Codrina Morarasu
- Department of Internal Medicine and Toxicology, Saint Spiridon University Regional Emergency Hospital, Faculty of Medicine, “Grigore T. Popa” University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Iasi 700111, Romania
| | - Victorita Sorodoc
- Department of Internal Medicine and Toxicology, Saint Spiridon University Regional Emergency Hospital, Faculty of Medicine, “Grigore T. Popa” University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Iasi 700111, Romania
| | - Anca Haisan
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Saint Spiridon University Regional Emergency Hospital, Faculty of Medicine, “Grigore T. Popa” University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Iasi 700111, Romania
| | - Stefan Morarasu
- Second Department of Surgical Oncology, Regional Institute of Oncology, Faculty of Medicine, “Grigore T. Popa” University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Iasi 700111, Romania
| | - Cristina Bologa
- Department of Internal Medicine and Toxicology, Saint Spiridon University Regional Emergency Hospital, Faculty of Medicine, “Grigore T. Popa” University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Iasi 700111, Romania
| | - Raluca Ecaterina Haliga
- Department of Internal Medicine and Toxicology, Saint Spiridon University Regional Emergency Hospital, Faculty of Medicine, “Grigore T. Popa” University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Iasi 700111, Romania
| | - Catalina Lionte
- Department of Internal Medicine and Toxicology, Saint Spiridon University Regional Emergency Hospital, Faculty of Medicine, “Grigore T. Popa” University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Iasi 700111, Romania
| | - Emilia Adriana Marciuc
- Department of Radiology, Emergency Hospital “Prof. Dr. N. Oblu”, Faculty of Medicine, “Grigore T. Popa” University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Iasi 700309, Romania
| | - Mohammed Elsiddig
- Department of Gatroenterology, Beaumont Hospital, Dublin D09V2N0, Ireland
| | - Diana Cimpoesu
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Saint Spiridon University Regional Emergency Hospital, Faculty of Medicine, “Grigore T. Popa” University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Iasi 700111, Romania
| | - Gabriel Mihail Dimofte
- Second Department of Surgical Oncology, Regional Institute of Oncology, Faculty of Medicine, “Grigore T. Popa” University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Iasi 700111, Romania
| | - Laurentiu Sorodoc
- Department of Internal Medicine and Toxicology, Saint Spiridon University Regional Emergency Hospital, Faculty of Medicine, “Grigore T. Popa” University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Iasi 700111, Romania
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Jimenez-Rosales R, Lopez-Tobaruela JM, Lopez-Vico M, Ortega-Suazo EJ, Martinez-Cara JG, Redondo-Cerezo E. Performance of the New ABC and MAP(ASH) Scores in the Prediction of Relevant Outcomes in Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding. J Clin Med 2023; 12:1085. [PMID: 36769733 PMCID: PMC9917936 DOI: 10.3390/jcm12031085] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/15/2022] [Revised: 01/14/2023] [Accepted: 01/25/2023] [Indexed: 01/31/2023] Open
Abstract
Background & Aims: Several risk scores have been proposed for risk-stratification of patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding. ABC score was found more accurate predicting mortality than AIMS65. MAP(ASH) is a simple, pre-endoscopy score with a great ability to predict intervention and mortality. The aim of this study was to compare ABC and MAP(ASH) discriminative ability for the prediction of mortality and intervention in UGIB. As a secondary aim we compared both scores with Glasgow-Blatchford score and AIMS65. Methods: Our study included patients admitted to the emergency room of Virgen de las Nieves University Hospital with UGIB (2017-2020). Information regarding clinical, biochemical tests and procedures was collected. Main outcomes were in-hospital mortality and a composite endpoint for intervention. Results: MAP(ASH) and ABC had similar AUROCs for mortality (0.79 vs. 0.80). For intervention, MAP(ASH) (AUROC = 0.75) and ABC (AUROC = 0.72) were also similar. Regarding rebleeding, AUROCs of MAP(ASH) and ABC were 0.67 and 0.61 respectively. No statistically differences were found in these outcomes. With a low threshold for MAP(ASH) ≤ 2, ABC and MAP(ASH) classified a similar proportion of patients as being at low risk of death (42% vs. 45.2%), with virtually no mortality under these thresholds. Conclusions: MAP(ASH) and ABC were similar for the prediction of relevant outcomes for UGIB, such as intervention, rebleeding and in-hospital mortality, with an accurate selection of low-risk patients. MAP(ASH) has the advantage of being easier to calculate even without the aid of electronic tools.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rita Jimenez-Rosales
- Department of Gastroenterology, “Virgen de las Nieves” University Hospital, Avenida de las Fuerzas Armadas 2, 18014 Granada, Spain
| | - Jose Maria Lopez-Tobaruela
- Department of Gastroenterology, “Virgen de las Nieves” University Hospital, Avenida de las Fuerzas Armadas 2, 18014 Granada, Spain
- University of Granada, 18010 Granada, Spain
| | - Manuel Lopez-Vico
- Department of Gastroenterology, “Virgen de las Nieves” University Hospital, Avenida de las Fuerzas Armadas 2, 18014 Granada, Spain
| | - Eva Julissa Ortega-Suazo
- Department of Gastroenterology, “Virgen de las Nieves” University Hospital, Avenida de las Fuerzas Armadas 2, 18014 Granada, Spain
| | - Juan Gabriel Martinez-Cara
- Department of Gastroenterology, “Virgen de las Nieves” University Hospital, Avenida de las Fuerzas Armadas 2, 18014 Granada, Spain
| | - Eduardo Redondo-Cerezo
- Department of Gastroenterology, “Virgen de las Nieves” University Hospital, Avenida de las Fuerzas Armadas 2, 18014 Granada, Spain
- Department of Medicine, School of Medicine, University of Granada, 18016 Granada, Spain
- Biosanitary Institute of Granada (ibs.GRANADA), 18014 Granada, Spain
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Dogru U, Yuksel M, Ay MO, Kaya H, Ozdemır A, Isler Y, Bulut M. The effect of the shock index and scoring systems for predicting mortality among geriatric patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding: a prospective cohort study. SAO PAULO MED J 2022; 140:531-539. [PMID: 35544884 PMCID: PMC9491474 DOI: 10.1590/1516-3180.2021.0735.13102021] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/30/2021] [Accepted: 10/13/2021] [Indexed: 11/25/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding is an important cause of mortality and morbidity among geriatric patients. OBJECTIVE To investigate whether the shock index and other scoring systems are effective predictors of mortality and prognosis among geriatric patients presenting to the emergency department with complaints of upper GI bleeding. DESIGN AND SETTING Prospective cohort study in an emergency department in Bursa, Turkey. METHODS Patients over 65 years admitted to a single-center, tertiary emergency service between May 8, 2019, and April 30, 2020, and diagnosed with upper GI bleeding were analyzed. 30, 180 and 360-day mortality prediction performances of the shock index and the Rockall, Glasgow-Blatchford and AIMS-65 scores were evaluated. RESULTS A total of 111 patients who met the criteria were included in the study. The shock index (P < 0.001) and AIMS-65 score (P < 0.05) of the patients who died within the 30-day period were found to be significantly different, while the shock index (P < 0.001), Rockall score (P < 0.001) and AIMS-65 score (P < 0.05) of patients who died within the 180-day and 360-day periods were statistically different. In the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis for predicting 360-day mortality, the area under the curve (AUC) value was found to be 0.988 (95% confidence interval, CI, 0.971-1.000; P < 0.001). CONCLUSION The shock index measured among geriatric patients with upper GI bleeding at admission seems to be a more effective predictor of prognosis than other scoring systems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Umran Dogru
- MD. Emergency Medicine Specialist, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of Health Sciences, Bursa Yuksek Ihtisas Training and Research Hospital, Bursa, Turkey
| | - Melih Yuksel
- MD. Associate Professor of Emergency Medicine, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of Health Sciences, Bursa Yuksek Ihtisas Training and Research Hospital, Bursa, Turkey
| | - Mehmet Oguzhan Ay
- MD. Associate Professor of Emergency Medicine, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of Health Sciences, Bursa Yuksek Ihtisas Training and Research Hospital, Bursa, Turkey
| | - Halil Kaya
- MD. Professor of Emergency Medicine, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of Health Sciences, Bursa Yuksek Ihtisas Training and Research Hospital, Bursa, Turkey
| | - Aksel Ozdemır
- MD. Emergency Medicine Specialist, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of Health Sciences, Bursa Yuksek Ihtisas Training and Research Hospital, Bursa, Turkey
| | - Yesim Isler
- MD. Emergency Medicine Specialist, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of Health Sciences, Bursa Yuksek Ihtisas Training and Research Hospital, Bursa, Turkey
| | - Mehtap Bulut
- MD. Professor of Emergency Medicine, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of Health Sciences, Bursa Yuksek Ihtisas Training and Research Hospital, Bursa, Turkey
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Lincoln M, Keating N, O’Loughlin C, Tam A, O’Kane MM, MacCarthy F, O’Connor E. Comparison of risk scoring systems for critical care patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding: predicting mortality and length of stay. Anaesthesiol Intensive Ther 2022; 54:310-314. [PMID: 36345924 PMCID: PMC10156557 DOI: 10.5114/ait.2022.120741] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/07/2021] [Accepted: 07/28/2022] [Indexed: 09/22/2023] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is a common reason for intensive care admission. While there exist a number of UGIB scoring systems which are used to predict mortality, there are limited studies assessing the discriminative value of these scores in intensive care unit (ICU) patients. The purpose of this study was to analyse five different UGIB scoring systems in predicting ICU mortality and length of stay and compare them to two commonly used ICU mortality scoring systems. MATERIAL AND METHODS We retrospectively identified all patients requiring ICU admission for UGIB to St James's Hospital over an 18-month period. We calculated their AIM65, Glasgow- Blatchford score, pre- and post-Rockall score, ABC, APACHE II and SOFA scores. We used area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) to compare the predictive values of these six scoring systems for ICU and hospital mortality as well as ICU length of stay greater than seven days. RESULTS APACHE II showed excellent discriminative value in predicting mortality in ICU patients (AUROC: 0.87; CI: 0.75-0.99) while the SOFA score showed good discriminative value (AUROC: 0.71; CI: 0.50-0.93). None of the UGIB scoring systems predicted mortality in these patients. All scoring systems showed poor discriminative value in predicting ICU length of stay. CONCLUSIONS We were not able to validate any of these UGIB scoring systems for mortality or length of stay prediction in ICU patients. This study supports the validity of APACHE II as a clinical tool for predicting mortality in ICU patients with UGIB.
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Cullison KM, Franck N. Clinical Decision Rules in the Evaluation and Management of Adult Gastrointestinal Emergencies. Emerg Med Clin North Am 2021; 39:719-732. [PMID: 34600633 DOI: 10.1016/j.emc.2021.07.001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/29/2022]
Abstract
Although abdominal pain is a common chief complaint in the emergency department, only 1 in 6 patients with abdominal pain are diagnosed with a gastrointestinal (GI) emergency. These patients often undergo extensive testing as well as hospitalizations to rule out an acute GI emergency and there is evidence that not all patients benefit from such management. Several clinical decision rules (CDRs) have been developed for the diagnosis and management of patients with suspected acute appendicitis and upper GI bleeding to identify those patients who may safely forgo further testing or hospital admission. Further validation studies demonstrating the superiority of these CDRs over contemporary practice are needed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kevin M Cullison
- Ronald O. Perelman Department of Emergency Medicine, NYU Grossman School of Medicine, 545 1st Avenue, New York, NY 10016, USA.
| | - Nathan Franck
- Ronald O. Perelman Department of Emergency Medicine, NYU Grossman School of Medicine, 545 1st Avenue, New York, NY 10016, USA
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Ak R, Hökenek NM. Comparison of AIMS65 and Glasgow Blatchford scores in predicting mortality in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding. REVISTA DA ASSOCIACAO MEDICA BRASILEIRA (1992) 2021; 67:766-770. [PMID: 34550270 DOI: 10.1590/1806-9282.20210580] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/11/2021] [Accepted: 06/27/2021] [Indexed: 12/24/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Several mortality prediction scores are available for patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding who visited the emergency department; however, most of the available scores include endoscopic data. Endoscopy is difficult or impossible to access for many emergencies departments worldwide. The aim of this study was to evaluate and compare the performance of the albumin, INR, alteration in mental status, systolic blood pressure and age 65 score and the Glasgow-Blatchford score in predicting mortality in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding who visited the emergency department and for which endoscopic data were not required. METHODS The data of patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding who visited the emergency department during the study period were retrospectively analyzed. The data were obtained from the hospital automation system using the international classification of disease codes via computer registration. The prediction accuracy of AIMS65 and Glasgow-Blatchford score was compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve method. RESULTS There were 422 patients in total; the mean age of these patients was 68.5 while 62.6% were males. The mortality rate was 30 (7.1%). The AIMS65 score performed better with an AUC 0.706 [95%CI 0.660-0.749; p<0.001] compared with the Glasgow-Blatchford score (AUC 0.542; 95%CI 0.4693-0.576; p=0.11). CONCLUSION In this study, it was revealed that AIMS65, which is a score that can be easily calculated only with the data in the emergency department, outperformed Glasgow-Blatchford score in predicting mortality in patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding who visited the emergency department.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rohat Ak
- Istanbul Kartal Dr. Lutfi Kirdar City Hospital, Department of Emergency Medicine - Istanbul, Turkey
| | - Nihat Müjdat Hökenek
- Kartal Dr. Lütfi Kırdar City Hospital, Department of Emergency Medicine - Istanbul, Turkey
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12
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Custovic N, Husic-Selimovic A, Srsen N, Prohic D. Comparison of Glasgow-Blatchford Score and Rockall Score in Patients with Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding. Med Arch 2021; 74:270-274. [PMID: 33041443 PMCID: PMC7520069 DOI: 10.5455/medarh.2020.74.270-274] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/21/2022] Open
Abstract
Introduction: Upper gastrointestinal bleeding can be a life-threatening condition and requires careful evaluation from the very first episode in order to reduce the risk of rebleeding, hemorrhagic shock and death. The outcome of a patient with upper gastrointestinal bleeding depends on resuscitation measures taken during admission to the hospital and an adequate assessment of the patient’s risk level. Aim: The aim of the study is to compare Glasgow Blatchford score and Rockall score and to identify the most accurate score used in predicting unfavorable outcomes and the need for intervention. Methods: This study involves 237 patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding. The accuracy of the scoring systems was assessed by plotting receiver-operating characteristic curves (ROC curves) and was calculated for GBS and RS with 95% confidence interval (CI). Results: As for mortality prediction, RS was superior to GBS (AUC 0.806 vs. 0.750). The GBS had a higher accuracy in detecting patients who needed transfusion units and was superior to the RS (AUC 0.810 vs.0.675). In predicting the need for intervention, RS was superior to GBS (AUC 0.707 vs. 0.636. Conclusion: GBS and RS are developed to help clinicians to triage patients appropriately in order to assess endoscopic therapy within a suitable time frame, as well as identify low risk patients for possible outpatient management. High accuracy of the GBS in predicting a need for transfusion represents an important endpoint to assess. RS was superior to GBS in predicting a need for intervention as well as mortality. Currently, a combination of these scoring systems is the best way for proper assessment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nerma Custovic
- Clinic for Gastroenterohepatology, Clinical University Center Sarajevo, Bosnia und Heregovina
| | - Azra Husic-Selimovic
- Clinic for Gastroenterohepatology, Clinical University Center Sarajevo, Bosnia und Heregovina
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Lu X, Zhang X, Chen H. Comparison of the AIMS65 score with the Glasgow-Blatchford and Rockall scoring systems for the prediction of the risk of in-hospital death among patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding. REVISTA ESPANOLA DE ENFERMEDADES DIGESTIVAS 2021; 112:467-473. [PMID: 32379473 DOI: 10.17235/reed.2020.6496/2019] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/20/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE the aim of this study was to compare the AIMS65, Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS) and Rockall score for the prediction of the risk of in-hospital death among patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB). METHODS patients with UGIB admitted to the ZhongDa hospital from June 2015 to July 2017 were retrospectively collected. All patients were assessed by the AIMS65, GBS and Rockall score and the main outcomes were in-hospital mortality. Odds ratios (OR) and 95 % confidence interval (CI) were estimated to assess the association of the three scores with the risk of death using logistic regression models. Subsequently, their risk stratification accuracy were compared. Finally, their predictive power was compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). RESULTS of the 284 UGIB patients enrolled in the study, 51 (18.0 %) had variceal bleeding (VUGIB) and 10 patients (3.5 %) died. AIMS65 (OR = 5.14, 95 % CI = 2.48, 10.64), GBS (OR = 1.66, 95 % CI = 1.28, 2.15) and Rockall (OR = 2.72, 95 % CI = 1.76, 4.18) scores were positively associated with death risk among all patients. The AIMS65 score (high-risk group vs low-risk group: 11.9 % vs 0.0 %, p < 0.001) was effective to classify high-risk in-hospital deaths populations. The AIMS65 score was the best approach to predict in-hospital death among all UGIB patients (AUROC: AIMS65 0.955, GBS 0.882, Rockall 0.938), NVUGIB patients (AUROC = 0.969, 95 % CI = 0.937, 0.989) or VUGIB patients (AUROC = 0.885, 95 % CI = 0.765, 0.967). CONCLUSIONS the AIMS65 score is the most convenient UGIB prognostic score to predict in-hospital mortality and may be more suitable for patients with NVUGIB.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xuefeng Lu
- Gastroenterology, The Second People's Hospital of Lianyungang, China
| | - Xiaojie Zhang
- Gastroenterology, The Second People's Hospital of Lianyungang, China
| | - Hong Chen
- Gastroenterology, Affiliated ZhongDa Hospital. School of Medicine. Southeast University, China
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Chen L, Zheng H, Wang S. Prediction model of emergency mortality risk in patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding: a retrospective study. PeerJ 2021; 9:e11656. [PMID: 34221734 PMCID: PMC8236237 DOI: 10.7717/peerj.11656] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/19/2021] [Accepted: 05/31/2021] [Indexed: 11/24/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Upper gastrointestinal bleeding is a common presentation in emergency departments and carries significant morbidity worldwide. It is paramount that treating physicians have access to tools that can effectively evaluate the patient risk, allowing quick and effective treatments to ultimately improve their prognosis. This study aims to establish a mortality risk assessment model for patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding at an emergency department. Methods A total of 991 patients presenting with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding between July 2016 and June 2019 were enrolled in this retrospective single-center cohort study. Patient demographics, parameters assessed at admission, laboratory test, and clinical interventions were extracted. We used the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression to identify predictors for establishing a nomogram for death in the emergency department or within 24 h after leaving the emergency department and a corresponding nomogram. The area under the curve of the model was calculated. A bootstrap resampling method was used to internal validation, and decision curve analysis was applied for evaluate the clinical utility of the model. We also compared our predictive model with other prognostic models, such as AIMS65, Glasgow-Blatchford bleeding score, modified Glasgow-Blatchford bleeding score, and Pre-Endoscopic Rockall Score. Results Among 991 patients, 41 (4.14%) died in the emergency department or within 24 h after leaving the emergency department. Five non-zero coefficient variables (transfusion of plasma, D-dimer, albumin, potassium, age) were filtered by the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression analysis and used to establish a predictive model. The area under the curve for the model was 0.847 (95% confidence interval [0.794–0.900]), which is higher than that of previous models for mortality of patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding. The decision curve analysis indicated the clinical usefulness of the model. Conclusions The nomogram based on transfusion of plasma, D-dimer, albumin, potassium, and age effectively assessed the prognosis of patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding presenting at the emergency department.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lan Chen
- Nursing Education Department, Affiliated Jinhua Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Jinhua Municipal Central Hospital, Jinhua, ZheJiang, China
| | - Han Zheng
- Emergency Department, Affiliated Jinhua Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Jinhua Municipal Central Hospital, Jinhua, ZheJiang, China
| | - Saibin Wang
- Department of Respiratory Medicine, Affiliated Jinhua Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Jinhua Municipal Central Hospital, Jinhua, ZheJiang, China
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Prealbumin and D-dimer as Prognostic Indicators for Rebleeding in Patients with Nonvariceal Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding. Dig Dis Sci 2021; 66:1949-1956. [PMID: 32583220 DOI: 10.1007/s10620-020-06420-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/04/2019] [Accepted: 06/14/2020] [Indexed: 12/14/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Determining the risk stratification of nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (NVUGIB) plays a vital role in treating upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB). Traditional scores like Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS), Rockall score (RS), and AIMS65 score have been widely utilized in UGIB practice, however exhibiting limited practical use due to relative lack of user-friendly characters. Prealbumin as a nutritional indicator and d-dimer as a fibrinolytic activity monitor, are generally used to evaluate the overall nutritional and fibrinolytic condition in UGIB patients. AIMS Here, we explored the predictive value of these two markers in NVUGIB for evaluating severity and prognosis including rebleeding and surgery intervention. METHODS One hundred and eighty-five patients suffering NVUGIB were enrolled. Their GBS, RS, and AIMS65 score, routine laboratory test results including prealbumin and d-dimer were determined after admission. Multivariate regression analysis was performed to define the independent predictors of rebleeding. ROC curves were generated to compare the suitability of prealbumin, d-dimer, and scores for rebleeding prediction. RESULTS The NVUGIB patients with rebleeding exhibited higher scores, white blood cell counts, d-dimer, CRP, proportion of surgery intervention, and longer hospital stay, but lower hematocrit, hemoglobin, calcium, prealbumin, and fibrinogen than those without rebleeding. The multivariate regression analysis demonstrated that prealbumin and d-dimer were independent predictors for rebleeding. Values of prealbumin and d-dimer were correlated with hospital stay, ulcer degrees, and surgery demand. The ROC curve analyses showed that prealbumin and d-dimer exhibited superior prediction value over the scoring systems. CONCLUSIONS Prealbumin and d-dimer are promising predictors for severity and prognosis in NVUGIB practice.
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Qian O, Zhang Q, Pan Y, Cheng C, Xu L, Guan J, Zhuang ZH. Endoscopic thermocoagulation hemostasis for acute non-varicose upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage: a randomized controlled study. Surg Endosc 2021; 36:1578-1583. [PMID: 33770278 DOI: 10.1007/s00464-021-08448-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/25/2020] [Accepted: 03/08/2021] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE This study evaluated the application of the bipolar electrocoagulation catheter via a peripheral-to-central (3 + 1) technique, relative to directly pressing only at the center of the bleeding site (direct-stroke), to effect endoscopic hemostasis of acute non-varicose gastrointestinal bleeding (ANVUGIB). METHODS Patients (n = 148) with endoscopically diagnosed ANVUGIB were randomly apportioned to receive treatment by 3 + 1 (n = 78) or direct-stroke (n = 70) application of the bipolar electrocoagulation catheter. The 3 + 1 strategy required pressing at3 narrowly restricted sites equidistant peripheral and center to the site of bleeding. The rates of initial success, hemostasis time, and number of compressions were compared according to intention-to-treat (ITT) or per protocol (PP). RESULTS The ITT (PP) rate of initial hemostatic success in patients receiving the 3 + 1 catheter was 91.02% (95.9%); and for the direct-stroke group was 71.42% (76.9%). For Forrest IIa lesions specifically, these rates were respectively 91.70% (97.1%) and 63.9% (67.6%). The ITT (PP) hemostasis times of the 3 + 1 and direct-stroke groups were 10.96 ± 3.28 (10.65 ± 2.90) and 14.27 ± 6.58 (14.12 ± 6.67) min; and the number of compressions numbered 5.73 ± 1.98 (5.42 ± 1.46) and 6.47 ± 2.82 (6.16 ± 2.47). CONCLUSION During thermocoagulation treatment of ANVUGIB via bipolar electrocoagulation catheter, the 3 + 1 strategy showed a significantly higher rate of successful initial hemostasis relative to the direct-stroke technique, and shorter hemostasis time, with no increase in total procedural steps.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ou Qian
- Department of Endoscopy Center, The First Afilliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Chazhong Road 20, Fuzhou, 350004, Fujian, China
| | - Qiaoxian Zhang
- Department of Nursing Department, The First Afilliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, Fujian, China
| | - Yufeng Pan
- Department of Endoscopy Center, The First Afilliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Chazhong Road 20, Fuzhou, 350004, Fujian, China
| | - Chiyue Cheng
- Department of Endoscopy Center, The First Afilliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Chazhong Road 20, Fuzhou, 350004, Fujian, China
| | - Lanying Xu
- Department of Endoscopy Center, The First Afilliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Chazhong Road 20, Fuzhou, 350004, Fujian, China
| | - Jinhui Guan
- Department of Endoscopy Center, The First Afilliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Chazhong Road 20, Fuzhou, 350004, Fujian, China
| | - Ze-Hao Zhuang
- Department of Endoscopy Center, The First Afilliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Chazhong Road 20, Fuzhou, 350004, Fujian, China.
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Chang A, Ouejiaraphant C, Akarapatima K, Rattanasupa A, Prachayakul V. Prospective Comparison of the AIMS65 Score, Glasgow-Blatchford Score, and Rockall Score for Predicting Clinical Outcomes in Patients with Variceal and Nonvariceal Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding. Clin Endosc 2021; 54:211-221. [PMID: 32668528 PMCID: PMC8039743 DOI: 10.5946/ce.2020.068] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/04/2020] [Revised: 04/27/2020] [Accepted: 05/07/2020] [Indexed: 12/27/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND/AIMS This study aimed to determine the performance of the AIMS65 score (AIMS65), Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS), and Rockall score (RS) in predicting outcomes in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB), and to compare the results between patients with nonvariceal UGIB (NVUGIB) and those with variceal UGIB (VUGIB). METHODS We conducted a prospective observational study between March 2016 and December 2017. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was performed for all outcomes for comparison. The associations of all three scores with mortality were evaluated using multivariate logistic regression analysis. RESULTS Of the total of 337 patients with UGIB, 267 patients (79.2%) had NVUGIB. AIMS65 was significantly associated (odds ratio [OR], 1.735; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.148-2.620), RS was marginally associated (OR, 1.225; 95% CI, 0.973-1.543), but GBS was not associated (OR, 1.017; 95% CI, 0.890-1.163) with mortality risk in patients with UGIB. However, all three scores accurately predicted all other outcomes (all p<0.05) except rebleeding (p>0.05). Only AIMS65 precisely predicted mortality, the need for blood transfusion and the composite endpoint (all p<0.05) in patients with VUGIB. CONCLUSION AIMS65 is superior to GBS and RS in predicting mortality in patients with UGIB, and also precisely predicts the need for blood transfusion and the composite endpoint in patients with VUGIB. No scoring system could satisfactorily predict rebleeding in all patients with UGIB.
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Affiliation(s)
- Arunchai Chang
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, Hatyai Hospital, Songkhla, Thailand
| | | | - Keerati Akarapatima
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, Hatyai Hospital, Songkhla, Thailand
| | - Attapon Rattanasupa
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, Hatyai Hospital, Songkhla, Thailand
| | - Varayu Prachayakul
- Siriraj Gastrointestinal Endoscopy Center, Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, Siriraj Hospital, Faculty of Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
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Schembre DB, Ely RE, Connolly JM, Padhya KT, Sharda R, Brandabur JJ. Semiautomated Glasgow-Blatchford Bleeding Score helps direct bed placement for patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding. BMJ Open Gastroenterol 2020; 7:bmjgast-2020-000479. [PMID: 33214231 PMCID: PMC7681917 DOI: 10.1136/bmjgast-2020-000479] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/18/2020] [Revised: 10/13/2020] [Accepted: 10/23/2020] [Indexed: 11/03/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE The Glasgow-Blatchford Bleeding Score (GBS) was designed to identify patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) who do not require hospitalisation. It may also help stratify patients unlikely to benefit from intensive care. DESIGN We reviewed patients assigned a GBS in the emergency room (ER) via a semiautomated calculator. Patients with a score ≤7 (low risk) were directed to an unmonitored bed (UMB), while those with a score of ≥8 (high risk) were considered for MB placement. Conformity with guidelines and subsequent transfers to MB were reviewed, along with transfusion requirement, rebleeding, length of stay, need for intervention and death. RESULTS Over 34 months, 1037 patients received a GBS in the ER. 745 had an UGIB. 235 (32%) of these patients had a GBS ≤7. 29 (12%) low-risk patients were admitted to MBs. Four low-risk patients admitted to UMB required transfer to MB within the first 48 hours. Low-risk patients admitted to UMBs were no more likely to die, rebleed, need transfusion or require more endoscopic, radiographic or surgical procedures than those admitted to MBs. No low-risk patient died from GIB. Patients with GBS ≥8 were more likely to rebleed, require transfusion and interventions to control bleeding but not to die. CONCLUSION A semiautomated GBS calculator can be incorporated into an ER workflow. Patients with a GBS ≤7 are unlikely to need MB care for UGIB. Further studies are warranted to determine an ideal scoring system for MB admission.
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Affiliation(s)
- Drew B Schembre
- Digestive Health, John Muir Health, Walnut Creek, California, USA
| | - Robson E Ely
- Clinical Transformation, Swedish Medical Center, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | | | - Kunjali T Padhya
- Gastroenterology, Swedish Medical Center, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Rohit Sharda
- Gastroenterology, Swedish Medical Center, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - John J Brandabur
- Gastroenterology, Swedish Medical Center, Seattle, Washington, USA
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Siau K, Hearnshaw S, Stanley AJ, Estcourt L, Rasheed A, Walden A, Thoufeeq M, Donnelly M, Drummond R, Veitch AM, Ishaq S, Morris AJ. British Society of Gastroenterology (BSG)-led multisociety consensus care bundle for the early clinical management of acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding. Frontline Gastroenterol 2020; 11:311-323. [PMID: 32582423 PMCID: PMC7307267 DOI: 10.1136/flgastro-2019-101395] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/07/2023] Open
Abstract
Medical care bundles improve standards of care and patient outcomes. Acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (AUGIB) is a common medical emergency which has been consistently associated with suboptimal care. We aimed to develop a multisociety care bundle centred on the early management of AUGIB. Commissioned by the British Society of Gastroenterology (BSG), a UK multisociety task force was assembled to produce an evidence-based and consensus-based care bundle detailing key interventions to be performed within 24 hours of presentation with AUGIB. A modified Delphi process was conducted with stakeholder representation from BSG, Association of Upper Gastrointestinal Surgeons, Society for Acute Medicine and the National Blood Transfusion Service of the UK. A formal literature search was conducted and international AUGIB guidelines reviewed. Evidence was appraised using the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation tool and statements were formulated and subjected to anonymous electronic voting to achieve consensus. Accepted statements were eligible for incorporation into the final bundle after a separate round of voting. The final version of the care bundle was reviewed by the BSG Clinical Services and Standards Committee and approved by all stakeholder groups. Consensus was reached on 19 statements; these culminated in 14 corresponding care bundle items, contained within 6 management domains: Recognition, Resuscitation, Risk assessment, Rx (Treatment), Refer and Review. A multisociety care bundle for AUGIB has been developed to facilitate timely delivery of evidence-based interventions and drive quality improvement and patient outcomes in AUGIB.
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Affiliation(s)
- Keith Siau
- Joint Advisory Group on Gastrointestinal Endoscopy, Royal College of Physicians, London, UK
- Medical and Dental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
- Endoscopy Unit, Dudley Group NHS Foundation Trust, Dudley, West Midlands, UK
| | - Sarah Hearnshaw
- Department of Gastroenterology, Newcastle Upon Tyne Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Newcastle Upon Tyne, UK
| | - Adrian J Stanley
- Department of Gastroenterology, Glasgow Royal Infirmary, Glasgow, UK
| | | | - Ashraf Rasheed
- Association of Upper Gastrointestinal Surgeons of Great Britain and Ireland, London, UK
- Upper GI Surgery, Royal Gwent Hospital, Newport, UK
| | - Andrew Walden
- Society for Acute Medicine, London, UK
- Intensive Care Unit, Royal Berkshire NHS Foundation Trust, Reading, UK
| | - Mo Thoufeeq
- Endoscopy Unit, Sheffield Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Sheffield, UK
| | - Mhairi Donnelly
- Department of Gastroenterology, Glasgow Royal Infirmary, Glasgow, UK
| | - Russell Drummond
- Department of Gastroenterology, Glasgow Royal Infirmary, Glasgow, UK
| | - Andrew M Veitch
- Department of Gastroenterology, Royal Wolverhampton Hospitals NHS Trust, Wolverhampton, UK
| | - Sauid Ishaq
- Endoscopy Unit, Dudley Group NHS Foundation Trust, Dudley, West Midlands, UK
- School of Health Sciences, Birmingham City University, Birmingham, West Midlands, UK
| | - Allan John Morris
- Department of Gastroenterology, Glasgow Royal Infirmary, Glasgow, UK
- Endoscopy Quality Improvement Programme (EQIP), British Society of Gastroenterology, London, UK
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Redondo-Cerezo E, Vadillo-Calles F, Stanley AJ, Laursen S, Laine L, Dalton HR, Ngu JH, Schultz M, Jiménez-Rosales R. MAP(ASH): A new scoring system for the prediction of intervention and mortality in upper gastrointestinal bleeding. J Gastroenterol Hepatol 2020; 35:82-89. [PMID: 31359521 DOI: 10.1111/jgh.14811] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/06/2019] [Revised: 07/12/2019] [Accepted: 07/26/2019] [Indexed: 12/21/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIM Risk stratification for upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is recommended. However, scoring system accuracy is suboptimal, and score calculation can be complex. Our aim was to develop a new score, the MAP(ASH) score, with information available in the emergency room and to validate it. METHODS The score was built from a prospective database of patients with UGIB and validated in an international database of 3012 patients from six hospitals. Outcomes were 30-day mortality, endoscopic intervention, any intervention (red blood transfusion, endoscopic treatment, interventional radiology, surgery, or death), and rebleeding. Accuracy to predict outcomes was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). RESULTS Five hundred forty-seven patients were included in the development cohort. Impaired mental status, albumin < 2.5 g/dL, pulse > 100, American Society of Anesthesiologists score > 2, systolic blood pressure < 90 mmHg, and hemoglobin < 10 g/dL were included in the score. The model had a good predictive accuracy for intervention (AUROC = 0.83; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.79-0.88) and fair for mortality (AUROC = 0.74; 95% CI: 0.68-0.81). Regarding endoscopic intervention, AUROC was 0.61 (95% CI: 0.56-0.66) in the original cohort and 0.69 (95% CI: 0.66-0.71) in the validation cohort, showing a poor performance, similar to other scores. For rebleeding, the MAP(ASH) (AUROC 0.73; 95% CI: 0.69-0.77) was similar to Glasgow Blatchford score (AUROC = 0.72; 95% CI: 0.67-0.76) but superior to AIMS65 (AUROC = 0.64; 95% CI: 0.59-0.68). CONCLUSION MAP(ASH) is a simple pre-endoscopy risk score to predict intervention after UGIB, with fair discrimination at predicting mortality. Because of its applicability, it could be an option in clinical practice.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eduardo Redondo-Cerezo
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Virgen de las Nieves University Hospital, Granada, Spain
| | - Francisco Vadillo-Calles
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Virgen de las Nieves University Hospital, Granada, Spain
| | - Adrian J Stanley
- Department of Gastroenterology, Glasgow Royal Infirmary, Glasgow, UK
| | - Stig Laursen
- Department of Medical Gastroenterology, Odense University Hospital, Odense, Denmark
| | - Loren Laine
- Section of Digestive Diseases, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, Connecticut, USA
- VA Connenticut Healthcare System, West Haven, Connecticut, USA
| | | | - Jing H Ngu
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Singapore General Hospital, Singapore
| | - Michael Schultz
- Gastroenterology Unit, Southern District Health Board, Dunedin Hospital, Dunedin, New Zealand
| | - Rita Jiménez-Rosales
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Virgen de las Nieves University Hospital, Granada, Spain
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Tham J, Stanley A. Clinical utility of pre-endoscopy risk scores in upper gastrointestinal bleeding. Expert Rev Gastroenterol Hepatol 2019; 13:1161-1167. [PMID: 31791160 DOI: 10.1080/17474124.2019.1698292] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/23/2019] [Accepted: 11/25/2019] [Indexed: 12/13/2022]
Abstract
Introduction: Acute upper-gastrointestinal bleeding (AUGIB) is a common medical emergency, with an incidence of 103-172 per 100,000 in the United Kingdom (UK) and mortality of 2% to 10%. Early and accurate prediction of the severity of an AUGIB episode may help guide management, including in or outpatient management, level of care required, and timing of endoscopy. This article aims to address the clinical utility of the various pre-endoscopic risk assessment tools used in AUGIB.Areas covered: The authors undertook a literature review of the current evidence on the pre-endoscopic risk assessment scores. Additional the authors discuss the recently published novel risk assessment scores.Expert opinion: The evidence shows that GBS is the most clinically useful risk assessment score in correctly identifying very low-risk patients suitable for outpatient management. At present, research is ongoing to assess machine learning in the assessment of patients presenting with AUGIB. More research is needed but it shows promise for the future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jennifer Tham
- Department of Gastroenterology, Glasgow Royal Infirmary, Glasgow, UK
| | - Adrian Stanley
- Department of Gastroenterology, Glasgow Royal Infirmary, Glasgow, UK
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Jono F, Iida H, Fujita K, Kaai M, Kanoshima K, Ohkuma K, Nonaka T, Ida T, Kusakabe A, Nakamura A, Koyama S, Nakajima A, Inamori M. Comparison of computed tomography findings with clinical risks factors for endoscopic therapy in upper gastrointestinal bleeding cases. J Clin Biochem Nutr 2019; 65:138-145. [PMID: 31592208 DOI: 10.3164/jcbn.18-115] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/27/2018] [Accepted: 02/16/2019] [Indexed: 12/14/2022] Open
Abstract
Several risk scoring systems exist for acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB). The clinical Rockall score (clinical RS) and the Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS) are major risk scores that consider only clinical data. Computed tomography (CT) findings are equivocal in non-variceal UGIB. We compared CT findings with clinical data to predict mortality, rebleeding and need for endoscopic therapy in non-variceal UGIB patients. This retrospective, single-center study included 386 patients admitted to our emergency department with diagnosis of non-variceal UGIB by urgent endoscopy between January 2009 and March 2015. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to investigate CT findings and risk factors derived from clinical data. CT findings could not significantly predict mortality and rebleeding in non-variceal UGIB patients. However, upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage in CT findings better predicted the need for endoscopic therapy than clinical data. The adjusted odds ratios were 10.10 (95% CI 5.01-20.40) for clinical RS and 10.70 (95% CI 5.08-22.70) for the GBS. UGI hemorrhage in CT findings could predict the need for endoscopic therapy in non-variceal UGIB patients in our emergency department. CT findings as well as risk score systems may be useful for predicting the need for endoscopic therapy.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fumitake Jono
- Department of Medical Education, Yokohama City University School of Medicine, 3-9 Fukuura, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama 236-0004, Japan
| | - Hiroshi Iida
- Department of Hepatology and Gastroenterology, Yokohama City University Hospital, 3-9 Fukuura, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama 236-0004, Japan
| | - Koji Fujita
- Office of Postgraduate Medical Education, Yokohama City University Hospital, 3-9 Fukuura, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama 236-0004, Japan
| | - Megumi Kaai
- Yokohama Hodogaya Central Hospital, 43-1, Kamadai-cho, Hodogaya-ku, Yokohama 240-8585, Japan
| | - Kenji Kanoshima
- Department of Hepatology and Gastroenterology, Yokohama City University Hospital, 3-9 Fukuura, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama 236-0004, Japan
| | - Kanji Ohkuma
- Department of Hepatology and Gastroenterology, Yokohama City University Hospital, 3-9 Fukuura, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama 236-0004, Japan
| | - Takashi Nonaka
- Department of Hepatology and Gastroenterology, Yokohama City University Hospital, 3-9 Fukuura, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama 236-0004, Japan
| | - Tomonori Ida
- Department of Medical Education, Yokohama City University School of Medicine, 3-9 Fukuura, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama 236-0004, Japan
| | - Akihiko Kusakabe
- Office of Postgraduate Medical Education, Yokohama City University Hospital, 3-9 Fukuura, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama 236-0004, Japan
| | - Atsushi Nakamura
- Department of Endoscopy and Gastroenterology, Tokyo Metropolitan Hiroo Hospital, 2-34-10 Ebisu, Shibuya-ku, Tokyo 150-0013, Japan
| | - Shigeru Koyama
- Department of Endoscopy and Gastroenterology, Tokyo Metropolitan Hiroo Hospital, 2-34-10 Ebisu, Shibuya-ku, Tokyo 150-0013, Japan
| | - Atsushi Nakajima
- Department of Hepatology and Gastroenterology, Yokohama City University Hospital, 3-9 Fukuura, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama 236-0004, Japan
| | - Masahiko Inamori
- Department of Medical Education, Yokohama City University School of Medicine, 3-9 Fukuura, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama 236-0004, Japan
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Jung K, Moon W. Role of endoscopy in acute gastrointestinal bleeding in real clinical practice: An evidence-based review. World J Gastrointest Endosc 2019; 11:68-83. [PMID: 30788026 PMCID: PMC6379746 DOI: 10.4253/wjge.v11.i2.68] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/15/2018] [Revised: 02/02/2019] [Accepted: 02/13/2019] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Abstract
Although upper gastrointestinal bleeding is usually segregated from lower gastrointestinal bleeding, and guidelines for gastrointestinal bleeding are divided into two separate sections, they may not be distinguished from each other in clinical practice. Most patients are first observed with signs of bleeding such as hematemesis, melena, and hematochezia. When a patient with these symptoms presents to the emergency room, endoscopic diagnosis and treatment are considered together with appropriate initial resuscitation. Especially, in cases of variceal bleeding, it is important for the prognosis that the endoscopy is performed immediately after the patient stabilizes. In cases of suspected lower gastrointestinal bleeding, full colonoscopy after bowel preparation is effective in distinguishing the cause of the bleeding and treating with hemostasis. The therapeutic aspect of endoscopy, using the mechanical method alone or injection with a certain modality rather than injection alone, can increase the success rate of bleeding control. Therefore, it is important to consider the origin of bleeding and how to approach it. In this article, we aim to review the role of endoscopy in diagnosis, treatment, and prognosis in patients with acute gastrointestinal bleeding in a real clinical setting.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kyoungwon Jung
- Department of Internal Medicine, Kosin University College of Medicine, Busan 49267, South Korea
| | - Won Moon
- Department of Internal Medicine, Kosin University College of Medicine, Busan 49267, South Korea
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Iino C, Shimoyama T, Igarashi T, Aihara T, Ishii K, Sakamoto J, Tono H, Fukuda S. Validity of the Pre-endoscopic Scoring Systems for the Prediction of the Failure of Endoscopic Hemostasis in Bleeding Gastroduodenal Peptic Ulcers. Intern Med 2018; 57:1355-1360. [PMID: 29321420 PMCID: PMC5995701 DOI: 10.2169/internalmedicine.9267-17] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/26/2022] Open
Abstract
Objective Although several pre-endoscopic scoring systems have been used to predict the mortality or the need for intervention for upper gastrointestinal bleeding, their usefulness to predict the failure of endoscopic hemostasis in bleeding gastroduodenal peptic ulcers has not yet been fully investigated. In this study, we evaluated the usefulness of the Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS), the clinical Rockall score (CRS), and the AIMS65 score in predicting the failure of endoscopic hemostasis in patients with bleeding gastroduodenal peptic ulcers. Methods We retrospectively evaluated 226 consecutive emergency endoscopic cases with bleeding gastroduodenal peptic ulcers between April 2010 and September 2016. The study outcome was the failure of first endoscopic hemostasis. The GBS, CRS, and AIMS65 scores were assessed for their ability to predict the failure of endoscopic hemostasis using a receiver-operating characteristic curve. Results Eight cases (3.5%) failed to achieve first endoscopic hemostasis. Surgery was required in six cases, and interventional radiology was required in two cases. The GBS was superior to both the CRS and the AIMS65 score in predicting the failure of endoscopic hemostasis [area under the curve, 0.77 (95% confidence interval, 0.64-0.90), 0.65 (0.56-0.74) and 0.75 (0.56-0.95), respectively]. No failure of endoscopic hemostasis was noted in cases in which the patient scored less than GBS 10 and CRS 2. Conclusion The GBS was the most useful scoring system for the prediction of failure of endoscopic hemostasis in patients with bleeding gastroduodenal peptic ulcers. The GBS was also useful in identifying the patients who did not require surgery or interventional radiology.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chikara Iino
- Department of Internal Medicine, Hirosaki Municipal Hospital, Japan
- Department of Gastroenterology, Hirosaki University Graduate School of Medicine, Japan
| | - Tadashi Shimoyama
- Department of Gastroenterology, Hirosaki University Graduate School of Medicine, Japan
| | - Takasato Igarashi
- Department of Internal Medicine, Hirosaki Municipal Hospital, Japan
- Department of Gastroenterology, Hirosaki University Graduate School of Medicine, Japan
| | - Tomoyuki Aihara
- Department of Internal Medicine, Hirosaki Municipal Hospital, Japan
| | - Kentaro Ishii
- Department of Internal Medicine, Hirosaki Municipal Hospital, Japan
| | - Jyuichi Sakamoto
- Department of Internal Medicine, Hirosaki Municipal Hospital, Japan
| | - Hiroshi Tono
- Department of Internal Medicine, Hirosaki Municipal Hospital, Japan
| | - Shinsaku Fukuda
- Department of Gastroenterology, Hirosaki University Graduate School of Medicine, Japan
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Stokbro LA, Schaffalitzky de Muckadell OB, Laursen SB. Arterial lactate does not predict outcome better than existing risk scores in upper gastrointestinal bleeding. Scand J Gastroenterol 2018; 53:586-591. [PMID: 29103333 DOI: 10.1080/00365521.2017.1397737] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/04/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is a frequent medical emergency and several scoring systems are developed to help risk-stratify patients. We aimed to investigate if elevated arterial lactate (AL) was associated with 30-day mortality, need for hospital-based intervention, or rebleeding. Furthermore, we compared the performance of AL with existing scoring systems and examined if incorporation of AL could improve their predictive ability. MATERIALS AND METHODS Retrospective cohort study of 331 consecutive patients admitted with UGIB during a one-year period. Multivariate analyses were performed to evaluate the association between AL and outcomes. Receiver operating characteristic curves were used to compare AL with existing scoring systems and to test if incorporation of AL could significantly increase their performance. RESULTS AL was significantly associated with mortality (p = .001), need for hospital-based intervention (p = .005), and rebleeding (p = .031). In predicting mortality and rebleeding, AL performed equally to existing scoring systems, however, inferior to all, in predicting need for intervention. Two of the scoring systems were marginally improved in predicting mortality if AL was included. CONCLUSIONS AL is associated with adverse outcomes in patients with UGIB, but has only similar or inferior ability to predict relevant clinical outcomes compared to existing scoring systems. Although AL could enhance performance of two scorings systems in predicting mortality, it does not have an apparent clinical significance. Thus, our data does not support routine measurement of AL in patients with UGIB.
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Affiliation(s)
- Line Aabel Stokbro
- a Department of Medical Gastroenterology S , Odense University Hospital , Odense , Denmark
| | | | - Stig Borbjerg Laursen
- a Department of Medical Gastroenterology S , Odense University Hospital , Odense , Denmark
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Tsui ATS, Chau CW, Leung JKS. Validation of a Modified Glasgow-Blatchford Score for Risk Stratification of Patients with Suspected Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding in an Accident and Emergency Department in Hong Kong. HONG KONG J EMERG ME 2017. [DOI: 10.1177/102490791602300201] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/31/2022] Open
Abstract
Objectives To validate the use of a modified Glasgow-Blatchford Score (mGBS) for risk stratification of patients with suspected upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) in an accident and emergency department in Hong Kong. Methods This was a retrospective cohort study of patients who attended the emergency department of the study centre from January 2014 to June 2014 who were subsequently admitted to surgical wards with suspected UGIB. High risk patients were considered to be those who required in-patient clinical interventions (blood transfusion, therapeutic endoscopy, angiographic embolisation, or surgery). The mGBS was calculated for each patient. The sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the score were calculated. Results A total of 372 patients were included in the study. With an mGBS of 0 (low risk) for detecting the primary outcome, the sensitivity was 99.2% (95% CI, 95.6100%), and the specificity was 25.91 (95% CI 20.6-31.8%). The negative likelihood ratio was 0.031 (95% CI 0.004-0.2). The AUC was 0.90 (95% CI 0.87 to 0.93). Conclusion The modified Glasgow-Blatchford Score is a clinically useful tool for emergency physician to identify UGIB patients at low-risk of requiring in-hospital clinical interventions. (Hong Kong j.emerg.med. 2016;23:3-11)
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Zhou YJ, Zheng JN, Zhou YF, Han YJ, Zou TT, Liu WY, Braddock M, Shi KQ, Wang XD, Zheng MH. Development of a prognostic nomogram for cirrhotic patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding. Eur J Gastroenterol Hepatol 2017; 29:1166-1173. [PMID: 28746121 DOI: 10.1097/meg.0000000000000943] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/08/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIM Upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is a complication with a high mortality rate in critically ill patients presenting with cirrhosis. Today, there exist few accurate scoring models specifically designed for mortality risk assessment in critically ill cirrhotic patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (CICGIB). Our aim was to develop and evaluate a novel nomogram-based model specific for CICGIB. PATIENTS AND METHODS Overall, 540 consecutive CICGIB patients were enrolled. On the basis of Cox regression analyses, the nomogram was constructed to estimate the probability of 30-day, 90-day, 270-day, and 1-year survival. An upper gastrointestinal bleeding-chronic liver failure-sequential organ failure assessment (UGIB-CLIF-SOFA) score was derived from the nomogram. Performance assessment and internal validation of the model were performed using Harrell's concordance index (C-index), calibration plot, and bootstrap sample procedures. UGIB-CLIF-SOFA was also compared with other prognostic models, such as CLIF-SOFA and model for end-stage liver disease, using C-indices. RESULTS Eight independent factors derived from Cox analysis (including bilirubin, creatinine, international normalized ratio, sodium, albumin, mean artery pressure, vasopressin used, and hematocrit decrease>10%) were assembled into the nomogram and the UGIB-CLIF-SOFA score. The calibration plots showed optimal agreement between nomogram prediction and actual observation. The C-index of the nomogram using bootstrap (0.729; 95% confidence interval: 0.689-0.766) was higher than that of the other models for predicting survival of CICGIB. CONCLUSION We have developed and internally validated a novel nomogram and an easy-to-use scoring system that accurately predicts the mortality probability of CICGIB on the basis of eight easy-to-obtain parameters. External validation is now warranted in future clinical studies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yu-Jie Zhou
- Departments of aHepatology, Liver Research Center bEndocrinology, the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University cSchool of the First Clinical Medical Sciences dSchool of the Second Clinical Medical Sciences, Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, China eInstitute of Hepatology, Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, China fGlobal Medicines Development, AstraZeneca R&D, Loughborough, UK
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Comparison of the AIMS65 and Glasgow Blatchford score for risk stratification in elderly patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding. Eur Geriatr Med 2017. [DOI: 10.1016/j.eurger.2016.10.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
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Stanley AJ, Laine L, Dalton HR, Ngu JH, Schultz M, Abazi R, Zakko L, Thornton S, Wilkinson K, Khor CJL, Murray IA, Laursen SB. Comparison of risk scoring systems for patients presenting with upper gastrointestinal bleeding: international multicentre prospective study. BMJ 2017; 356:i6432. [PMID: 28053181 PMCID: PMC5217768 DOI: 10.1136/bmj.i6432] [Citation(s) in RCA: 219] [Impact Index Per Article: 27.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 11/25/2016] [Indexed: 12/19/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To compare the predictive accuracy and clinical utility of five risk scoring systems in the assessment of patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding. DESIGN International multicentre prospective study. SETTING Six large hospitals in Europe, North America, Asia, and Oceania. PARTICIPANTS 3012 consecutive patients presenting over 12 months with upper gastrointestinal bleeding. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Comparison of pre-endoscopy scores (admission Rockall, AIMS65, and Glasgow Blatchford) and post-endoscopy scores (full Rockall and PNED) for their ability to predict predefined clinical endpoints: a composite endpoint (transfusion, endoscopic treatment, interventional radiology, surgery, or 30 day mortality), endoscopic treatment, 30 day mortality, rebleeding, and length of hospital stay. Optimum score thresholds to identify low risk and high risk patients were determined. RESULTS The Glasgow Blatchford score was best (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) 0.86) at predicting intervention or death compared with the full Rockall score (0.70), PNED score (0.69), admission Rockall score (0.66, and AIMS65 score (0.68) (all P<0.001). A Glasgow Blatchford score of ≤1 was the optimum threshold to predict survival without intervention (sensitivity 98.6%, specificity 34.6%). The Glasgow Blatchford score was better at predicting endoscopic treatment (AUROC 0.75) than the AIMS65 (0.62) and admission Rockall scores (0.61) (both P<0.001). A Glasgow Blatchford score of ≥7 was the optimum threshold to predict endoscopic treatment (sensitivity 80%, specificity 57%). The PNED (AUROC 0.77) and AIMS65 scores (0.77) were best at predicting mortality, with both superior to admission Rockall score (0.72) and Glasgow Blatchford score (0.64; P<0.001). Score thresholds of ≥4 for PNED, ≥2 for AIMS65, ≥4 for admission Rockall, and ≥5 for full Rockall were optimal at predicting death, with sensitivities of 65.8-78.6% and specificities of 65.0-65.3%. No score was helpful at predicting rebleeding or length of stay. CONCLUSIONS The Glasgow Blatchford score has high accuracy at predicting need for hospital based intervention or death. Scores of ≤1 appear the optimum threshold for directing patients to outpatient management. AUROCs of scores for the other endpoints are less than 0.80, therefore their clinical utility for these outcomes seems to be limited.Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN16235737.
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Affiliation(s)
- Adrian J Stanley
- Department of Gastroenterology, Glasgow Royal Infirmary, Glasgow G4 OSF, UK
| | - Loren Laine
- Section of Digestive Diseases, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, and VA Connecticut Healthcare System, West Haven, CT, USA
| | - Harry R Dalton
- Gastrointestinal Unit, Royal Cornwall Hospital, Cornwall, UK
| | - Jing H Ngu
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Singapore General Hospital, Singapore
| | - Michael Schultz
- Department of Medicine, Dunedin School of Medicine, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand
- Gastroenterology Unit, Southern District Health Board, Dunedin Hospital, Dunedin, New Zealand
| | - Roseta Abazi
- Department of Medical Gastroenterology, Odense University Hospital, Odense, Denmark
| | - Liam Zakko
- Section of Digestive Diseases, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, and VA Connecticut Healthcare System, West Haven, CT, USA
| | - Susan Thornton
- Department of Gastroenterology, Glasgow Royal Infirmary, Glasgow G4 OSF, UK
| | - Kelly Wilkinson
- Gastrointestinal Unit, Royal Cornwall Hospital, Cornwall, UK
| | - Cristopher J L Khor
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Singapore General Hospital, Singapore
| | - Iain A Murray
- Gastrointestinal Unit, Royal Cornwall Hospital, Cornwall, UK
| | - Stig B Laursen
- Department of Medical Gastroenterology, Odense University Hospital, Odense, Denmark
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Zhong M, Chen WJ, Lu XY, Qian J, Zhu CQ. Comparison of three scoring systems in predicting clinical outcomes in patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding: a prospective observational study. J Dig Dis 2016; 17:820-828. [PMID: 27930875 DOI: 10.1111/1751-2980.12433] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/07/2016] [Revised: 11/23/2016] [Accepted: 12/05/2016] [Indexed: 12/11/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To compare the performances of the Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS), modified GBS (mGBS) and AIMS65 in predicting clinical outcomes in patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (AUGIB). METHODS This study enrolled 320 consecutive patients with AUGIB. Patients at high and low risks of developing adverse clinical outcomes (rebleeding, the need of clinical intervention and death) were categorized according to the GBS, mGBS and AIMS65 scoring systems. The outcome of the patients were the occurrences of adverse clinical outcomes. The areas under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC) of three scoring systems were compared. RESULTS Irrespective of the systems used, the high-risk groups showed higher rates of rebleeding, intervention and death compared with the low-risk groups (P < 0.05). For the prediction of rebleeding, AIMS65 (AUROC 0.735, 95% CI 0.667-0.802) performed significantly better than GBS (AUROC 0.672, 95% CI 0.597-0.747; P < 0.01) and mGBS (AUROC 0.677, 95% CI 0.602-0.753; P < 0.01). For the prediction of interventions, there was no significant difference among the three systems (GBS: AUROC 0.769, 95% CI 0.668-0.870; mGBS: AUROC 0.745, 95% CI 0.643-0.847; AIMS65: AUROC 0.746, 95% CI 0.640-0.851). For the prediction of in-hospital mortality, there was no significant difference among the three systems (GBS: AUROC 0.796, 95% CI 0.694-0.898; mGBS: AUROC 0.803, 95% CI 0.703-0.904; AIMS65: AUROC 0.786, 95% CI 0.670-0.903). CONCLUSIONS The three scoring systems are reliable and accurate in predicting the rates of rebleeding, surgery and mortality in AUGIB. However, AIMS65 outperforms GBS and mGBS in predicting rebleeding.
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Affiliation(s)
- Min Zhong
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Renjii Hospital, School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai, China
| | - Wan Jun Chen
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Renjii Hospital, School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai, China
| | - Xiao Ye Lu
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Renjii Hospital, School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai, China
| | - Jie Qian
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Renjii Hospital, School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai, China
| | - Chang Qing Zhu
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Renjii Hospital, School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai, China
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Ramaekers R, Mukarram M, Smith CAM, Thiruganasambandamoorthy V. The Predictive Value of Preendoscopic Risk Scores to Predict Adverse Outcomes in Emergency Department Patients With Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding: A Systematic Review. Acad Emerg Med 2016; 23:1218-1227. [PMID: 27640399 DOI: 10.1111/acem.13101] [Citation(s) in RCA: 38] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/03/2016] [Revised: 07/28/2016] [Accepted: 09/02/2016] [Indexed: 12/24/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Risk stratification of emergency department (ED) patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) using preendoscopic risk scores can aid ED physicians in disposition decision-making. We conducted a systematic review to assess the predictive value of preendoscopic risk scores for 30-day serious adverse events. METHODS We searched MEDLINE, PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews from inception to March 2015. We included studies involving adult ED UGIB patients evaluating preendoscopic risk scores and excluded reviews, case reports, and animal studies. The composite outcome included 30-day mortality, recurrent bleeding, and need for intervention. In two phases (screening and full review), two reviewers independently screened articles for inclusion and extracted patient-level data. The consensus data were used for analysis. We reported sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value, and positive and negative likelihood ratios with 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS We identified 3,173 articles, of which 16 were included: three studied Glasgow Blatchford score (GBS); one studied clinical Rockall score (cRockall); two studied AIMS65; six compared GBS and cRockall; three compared GBS, a modification of the GBS, and cRockall; and one compared the GBS and AIMS65. Overall, the sensitivity and specificity of the GBS were 0.98 and 0.16, respectively; for the cRockall they were 0.93 and 0.24, respectively; and for the AIMS65 they were 0.79 and 0.61, respectively. The GBS with a cutoff point of 0 had a sensitivity of 0.99 and a specificity of 0.08. CONCLUSION The GBS with a cutoff point of 0 was superior over other cutoff points and risk scores for identifying low-risk patients but had a very low specificity. None of the risk scores identified by our systematic review were robust and, hence, cannot be recommended for use in clinical practice. Future prospective studies are needed to develop robust new scores for use in ED patients with UGIB.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rosa Ramaekers
- Ottawa Hospital Research Institute; The Ottawa Hospital; University of Ottawa; Ottawa ON Canada
- School of Epidemiology, Public Health, and Preventive Medicine; University of Ottawa; Ottawa ON Canada
- Department of Emergency Medicine; University of Ottawa; Ottawa ON Canada
| | - Muhammad Mukarram
- Ottawa Hospital Research Institute; The Ottawa Hospital; University of Ottawa; Ottawa ON Canada
| | - Christine A. M. Smith
- School of Epidemiology, Public Health, and Preventive Medicine; University of Ottawa; Ottawa ON Canada
| | - Venkatesh Thiruganasambandamoorthy
- Ottawa Hospital Research Institute; The Ottawa Hospital; University of Ottawa; Ottawa ON Canada
- School of Epidemiology, Public Health, and Preventive Medicine; University of Ottawa; Ottawa ON Canada
- Department of Emergency Medicine; University of Ottawa; Ottawa ON Canada
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Iino C, Mikami T, Igarashi T, Aihara T, Ishii K, Sakamoto J, Tono H, Fukuda S. Evaluation of scoring models for identifying the need for therapeutic intervention of upper gastrointestinal bleeding: A new prediction score model for Japanese patients. Dig Endosc 2016; 28:714-721. [PMID: 27061908 DOI: 10.1111/den.12666] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/08/2016] [Revised: 04/02/2016] [Accepted: 04/06/2016] [Indexed: 02/08/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIM Multiple scoring systems have been developed to predict outcomes in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding. We determined how well these and a newly established scoring model predict the need for therapeutic intervention, excluding transfusion, in Japanese patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding. METHODS We reviewed data from 212 consecutive patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding. Patients requiring endoscopic intervention, operation, or interventional radiology were allocated to the therapeutic intervention group. Firstly, we compared areas under the curve for the Glasgow-Blatchford, Clinical Rockall, and AIMS65 scores. Secondly, the scores and factors likely associated with upper gastrointestinal bleeding were analyzed with a logistic regression analysis to form a new scoring model. Thirdly, the new model and the existing model were investigated to evaluate their usefulness. RESULTS Therapeutic intervention was required in 109 patients (51.4%). The Glasgow-Blatchford score was superior to both the Clinical Rockall and AIMS65 scores for predicting therapeutic intervention need (area under the curve, 0.75 [95% confidence interval, 0.69-0.81] vs 0.53 [0.46-0.61] and 0.52 [0.44-0.60], respectively). Multivariate logistic regression analysis retained seven significant predictors in the model: systolic blood pressure <100 mmHg, syncope, hematemesis, hemoglobin <10 g/dL, blood urea nitrogen ≥22.4 mg/dL, estimated glomerular filtration rate ≤ 60 mL/min per 1.73 m2 , and antiplatelet medication. Based on these variables, we established a new scoring model with superior discrimination to those of existing scoring systems (area under the curve, 0.85 [0.80-0.90]). CONCLUSION We developed a superior scoring model for identifying therapeutic intervention need in Japanese patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chikara Iino
- Department of Internal Medicine, Hirosaki Municipal Hospital, Hirosaki, Japan. .,Department of Gastroenterology, Hirosaki University Graduate School of Medicine, Hirosaki, Japan.
| | - Tatsuya Mikami
- Department of Internal Medicine, Hirosaki Municipal Hospital, Hirosaki, Japan.,Division of Endoscopy, Hirosaki University Hospital, Hirosaki, Japan
| | - Takasato Igarashi
- Department of Internal Medicine, Hirosaki Municipal Hospital, Hirosaki, Japan.,Department of Gastroenterology, Hirosaki University Graduate School of Medicine, Hirosaki, Japan
| | - Tomoyuki Aihara
- Department of Internal Medicine, Hirosaki Municipal Hospital, Hirosaki, Japan
| | - Kentaro Ishii
- Department of Internal Medicine, Hirosaki Municipal Hospital, Hirosaki, Japan
| | - Jyuichi Sakamoto
- Department of Internal Medicine, Hirosaki Municipal Hospital, Hirosaki, Japan
| | - Hiroshi Tono
- Department of Internal Medicine, Hirosaki Municipal Hospital, Hirosaki, Japan
| | - Shinsaku Fukuda
- Department of Gastroenterology, Hirosaki University Graduate School of Medicine, Hirosaki, Japan
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Wang XY, Chen XY. Significance of AIMS65 risk scoring system in evaluating prognosis of acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding. Shijie Huaren Xiaohua Zazhi 2016; 24:4013-4018. [DOI: 10.11569/wcjd.v24.i28.4013] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Abstract
AIM To assess the value of AIMS65 risk scoring system for evaluating the risk of rebleeding and mortality with acute variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (AVUGIB) and acute non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (ANVUGIB).
METHODS Clinical data for 339 acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (AUGIB) patients treated from October 2013 to June 2016 at the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University who met the inclusion criteria and had complete information were included. Each patient's score of AIMS65 was calculated. Patients were followed for 30 d after discharge. Death or the prognosis of disease in 30 d after discharge was considered as the clinical study endpoint. The rates of rebleeding and mortality were calculated. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of AIMS65 risk scoring system was calculated to verify its efficiency in evaluating rebleeding and mortality.
RESULTS With the increase in AIMS65 risk scores, the rates of rebleeding and mortality increased in AUGIB patients. The AUCs of AIMS65 risk scoring system for assessing the rates of rebleeding and mortality in AVUGIB were 0.717 (95%CI: 0.568-0.866, P < 0.05) and 0.857 (95%CI: 0.747-0.967, P < 0.05), respectively. The AUCs of AIMS65 risk scoring system for assessing the rates of rebleeding and mortality in ANVUGIB were 0.768 (95%CI: 0.652-0.884, P < 0.05) and 0.857 (95%CI: 0.733-0.981, P < 0.05), respectively.
CONCLUSION AIMS65 risk scoring system can be used to predict the risk and assess the prognosis of AUGIB, including both ANVUGIB and AVUGIB.
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Cúrdia-Gonçalves T, Rosa B, Cotter J. New insights on an old medical emergency: non-portal hypertension related upper gastrointestinal bleeding. REVISTA ESPANOLA DE ENFERMEDADES DIGESTIVAS 2016; 108:648-656. [PMID: 26940680 DOI: 10.17235/reed.2016.4240/2016] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/20/2022]
Abstract
Upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is a potentially life-threatening condition and is the most common medical emergency managed by gastroenterologists. Despite being one of the most antique medical problems, recent studies have been slowly changing the management of these patients, which should nowadays include not only initial resuscitation, but also risk stratification, pre-endoscopic therapy, endoscopy treatment, and post-procedure care. The aim of this paper is to review the extended approach to the patient with non-portal hypertension related UGIB.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Bruno Rosa
- Gastroenterology Department, Hospital da Senhora da Oliveira, Portugal
| | - José Cotter
- Gastroenterology, Hospital da Senhora da Oliveira, Portugal
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Park SM, Yeum SC, Kim BW, Kim JS, Kim JH, Sim EH, Ji JS, Choi H. Comparison of AIMS65 Score and Other Scoring Systems for Predicting Clinical Outcomes in Koreans with Nonvariceal Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding. Gut Liver 2016; 10:526-531. [PMID: 27377742 PMCID: PMC4933411 DOI: 10.5009/gnl15153] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/27/2015] [Revised: 05/14/2014] [Accepted: 07/29/2015] [Indexed: 12/29/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND/AIMS The AIMS65 score has not been sufficiently validated in Korea. The objective of this study was to compare the AIMS65 and other scoring systems for the prediction of various clinical outcomes in Korean patients with acute nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (NVUGIB). METHODS The AIMS65 score, clinical and full Rockall scores (cRS and fRS) and Glasgow-Blatchford (GBS) score were calculated in patients with NVUGIB in a single center retrospectively. The performance of these scores for predicting mortality, rebleeding, transfusion requirement, and endoscopic intervention was assessed by calculating the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve. RESULTS Of the 523 patients, 3.4% died within 30 days, 2.5% experienced rebleeding, 40.0% required endoscopic intervention, and 75.7% needed transfusion. The AIMS65 score was useful for predicting the 30-day mortality, the need for endoscopic intervention and for transfusion. The fRS was superior to the AIMS65, GBS, and cRS for predicting endoscopic intervention and the GBS was superior to the AIMS65, fRS, and cRS for predicting the transfusion requirement. CONCLUSIONS The AIMS65 score was useful for predicting the 30-day mortality, transfusion requirement, and endoscopic intervention in Korean patients with acute NVUGIB. However, it was inferior to the GBS and fRS for predicting the transfusion requirement and endoscopic intervention, respectively.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sung Min Park
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, Incheon St. Mary’s Hospital, The Catholic University of Korea College of Medicine, Incheon,
Korea
| | - Seok Cheon Yeum
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, Incheon St. Mary’s Hospital, The Catholic University of Korea College of Medicine, Incheon,
Korea
| | - Byung-Wook Kim
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, Incheon St. Mary’s Hospital, The Catholic University of Korea College of Medicine, Incheon,
Korea
| | - Joon Sung Kim
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, Incheon St. Mary’s Hospital, The Catholic University of Korea College of Medicine, Incheon,
Korea
| | - Ji Hee Kim
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, Incheon St. Mary’s Hospital, The Catholic University of Korea College of Medicine, Incheon,
Korea
| | - Eun Hui Sim
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, Incheon St. Mary’s Hospital, The Catholic University of Korea College of Medicine, Incheon,
Korea
| | - Jeong-Seon Ji
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, Incheon St. Mary’s Hospital, The Catholic University of Korea College of Medicine, Incheon,
Korea
| | - Hwang Choi
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, Incheon St. Mary’s Hospital, The Catholic University of Korea College of Medicine, Incheon,
Korea
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Robertson M, Majumdar A, Boyapati R, Chung W, Worland T, Terbah R, Wei J, Lontos S, Angus P, Vaughan R. Risk stratification in acute upper GI bleeding: comparison of the AIMS65 score with the Glasgow-Blatchford and Rockall scoring systems. Gastrointest Endosc 2016; 83:1151-60. [PMID: 26515955 DOI: 10.1016/j.gie.2015.10.021] [Citation(s) in RCA: 87] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/28/2015] [Accepted: 10/11/2015] [Indexed: 12/11/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS The American College of Gastroenterology recommends early risk stratification in patients presenting with upper GI bleeding (UGIB). The AIMS65 score is a risk stratification score previously validated to predict inpatient mortality. The aim of this study was to validate the AIMS65 score as a predictor of inpatient mortality in patients with acute UGIB and to compare it with established pre- and postendoscopy risk scores. METHODS ICD-10 (International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision) codes identified patients presenting with UGIB requiring endoscopy. All patients were risk stratified by using the AIMS65, Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS), pre-endoscopy Rockall, and full Rockall scores. The primary outcome was inpatient mortality. Secondary outcomes were a composite endpoint of inpatient mortality, rebleeding, and endoscopic, radiologic, or surgical intervention; blood transfusion requirement; intensive care unit (ICU) admission; rebleeding; and hospital length of stay. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was calculated for each score. RESULTS Of the 424 study patients, 18 (4.2%) died and 69 (16%) achieved the composite endpoint. The AIMS65 score was superior to both the GBS (AUROC, 0.80 vs 0.76, P < .027) and the pre-endoscopy Rockall score (0.74, P = .001) and equivalent to the full Rockall score (0.78, P = .18) in predicting inpatient mortality. The AIMS65 score was superior to all other scores in predicting the need for ICU admission and length of hospital stay. AIMS65, GBS, and full Rockall scores were equivalent (AUROCs, 0.63 vs 0.62 vs 0.63, respectively) and superior to pre-endoscopy Rockall (AUROC, 0.55) in predicting the composite endpoint. GBS was superior to all other scores for predicting blood transfusion. CONCLUSION The AIMS65 score is a simple risk stratification score for UGIB with accuracy superior to that of GBS and pre-endoscopy Rockall scores in predicting in-hospital mortality and the need for ICU admission.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marcus Robertson
- Department of Gastroenterology and Liver Transplant Unit, Austin Hospital, Heidelberg, Victoria, Australia
| | - Avik Majumdar
- Department of Gastroenterology and Liver Transplant Unit, Austin Hospital, Heidelberg, Victoria, Australia
| | - Ray Boyapati
- Department of Gastroenterology and Liver Transplant Unit, Austin Hospital, Heidelberg, Victoria, Australia
| | - William Chung
- Department of Gastroenterology and Liver Transplant Unit, Austin Hospital, Heidelberg, Victoria, Australia
| | - Tom Worland
- Department of Gastroenterology and Liver Transplant Unit, Austin Hospital, Heidelberg, Victoria, Australia
| | - Ryma Terbah
- Department of Gastroenterology and Liver Transplant Unit, Austin Hospital, Heidelberg, Victoria, Australia
| | - James Wei
- Department of Gastroenterology and Liver Transplant Unit, Austin Hospital, Heidelberg, Victoria, Australia
| | - Steve Lontos
- Department of Gastroenterology and Liver Transplant Unit, Austin Hospital, Heidelberg, Victoria, Australia
| | - Peter Angus
- Department of Gastroenterology and Liver Transplant Unit, Austin Hospital, Heidelberg, Victoria, Australia; Department of Medicine, The University of Melbourne, Austin Health, Heidelberg, Victoria, Australia
| | - Rhys Vaughan
- Department of Gastroenterology and Liver Transplant Unit, Austin Hospital, Heidelberg, Victoria, Australia; Department of Medicine, The University of Melbourne, Austin Health, Heidelberg, Victoria, Australia
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Martínez-Cara JG, Jiménez-Rosales R, Úbeda-Muñoz M, de Hierro ML, de Teresa J, Redondo-Cerezo E. Comparison of AIMS65, Glasgow-Blatchford score, and Rockall score in a European series of patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding: performance when predicting in-hospital and delayed mortality. United European Gastroenterol J 2016; 4:371-379. [PMID: 27403303 PMCID: PMC4924428 DOI: 10.1177/2050640615604779] [Citation(s) in RCA: 42] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/25/2015] [Accepted: 08/11/2015] [Indexed: 12/24/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE AIMS65 is a score designed to predict in-hospital mortality, length of stay, and costs of gastrointestinal bleeding. Our aims were to revalidate AIMS65 as predictor of inpatient mortality and to compare AIMS65's performance with that of Glasgow-Blatchford (GBS) and Rockall scores (RS) with regard to mortality, and the secondary outcomes of a composite endpoint of severity, transfusion requirements, rebleeding, delayed (6-month) mortality, and length of stay. METHODS The study included 309 patients. Clinical and biochemical data, transfusion requirements, endoscopic, surgical, or radiological treatments, and outcomes for 6 months after admission were collected. Clinical outcomes were in-hospital mortality, delayed mortality, rebleeding, composite endpoint, blood transfusions, and length of stay. RESULTS In receiver-operating characteristic curve analyses, AIMS65, GBS, and RS were similar when predicting inpatient mortality (0.76 vs. 0.78 vs. 0.78). Regarding endoscopic intervention, AIMS65 and GBS were identical (0.62 vs. 0.62). AIMS65 was useless when predicting rebleeding compared to GBS or RS (0.56 vs. 0.70 vs. 0.71). GBS was better at predicting the need for transfusions. No patient with AIMS65 = 0, GBS ≤ 6, or RS ≤ 4 died. Considering the composite endpoint, an AIMS65 of 0 did not exclude high risk patients, but a GBS ≤ 1 or RS ≤ 2 did. The three scores were similar in predicting prolonged in-hospital stay. Delayed mortality was better predicted by AIMS65. CONCLUSION AIMS65 is comparable to GBS and RS in essential endpoints such as inpatient mortality, the need for endoscopic intervention and length of stay. GBS is a better score predicting rebleeding and the need for transfusion, but AIMS65 shows a better performance predicting delayed mortality.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | | | | | - Eduardo Redondo-Cerezo
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, “Virgen de las Nieves” University Hospital, Granada, Spain
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Palmer AJ, Moroni F, Mcleish S, Campbell G, Bardgett J, Round J, McMullan C, Rashid M, Clark R, De Las Heras D, Vincent C. Risk assessment in acute non-variceal upper GI bleeding: the AIMS65 score in comparison with the Glasgow-Blatchford score in a Scottish population. Frontline Gastroenterol 2016; 7:90-96. [PMID: 28839841 PMCID: PMC5369468 DOI: 10.1136/flgastro-2015-100594] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/03/2015] [Revised: 05/05/2015] [Accepted: 05/05/2015] [Indexed: 02/04/2023] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION The early use of risk stratification scores is recommended for patients presenting with acute non-variceal upper gastrointestinal (GI) bleeds (ANVGIB). AIMS65 is a novel, recently derived scoring system, which has been proposed as an alternative to the more established Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS). OBJECTIVE To validate the AIMS65 scoring system in a predominantly Caucasian population from Scotland and compare it with the GBS. DESIGN Retrospective study of patients presenting to a district general hospital in Scotland with a suspected diagnosis of ANVGIB who underwent inpatient upper GI endoscopy between March 2008 and March 2013. OUTCOMES The primary outcome measure was 30-day mortality. Secondary outcome measures were requirement for endoscopic intervention, endoscopy refractory bleeding, blood transfusion, rebleeding and admission to high dependency unit (HDU) and intensive care unit (ICU). The area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve was calculated for each score. RESULTS 328 patients were included. Of these 65.9% (n=216) were men and 34.1% (n=112) women. The mean age was 65.2 years and 30-day mortality 5.2%. AIMS65 was superior to the GBS in predicting mortality, with an AUROC of 0.87 versus 0.70 (p<0.05). The GBS was superior for blood transfusion (AUROC 0.84 vs 0.62, p<0.05) and admission to HDU (AUROC 0.73 vs 0.62, p<0.05). There were no significant differences between the scores with respect to requirement for endoscopic intervention, endoscopy refractory bleeding, rebleeding and admission to ICU. CONCLUSIONS AIMS65 accurately predicted mortality in a Scottish population of patients with ANVGIB. Large prospective studies are now required to establish the exact role of AIMS65 in triaging patients with ANVGIB.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andrew J Palmer
- Departments of Acute Medicine & Gastroenterology, Raigmore Hospital, Inverness, Scotland
| | - Francesca Moroni
- Departments of Acute Medicine & Gastroenterology, Raigmore Hospital, Inverness, Scotland
| | - Sally Mcleish
- Departments of Acute Medicine & Gastroenterology, Raigmore Hospital, Inverness, Scotland
| | - Geraldine Campbell
- Departments of Acute Medicine & Gastroenterology, Raigmore Hospital, Inverness, Scotland
| | - Jonathan Bardgett
- Departments of Acute Medicine & Gastroenterology, Raigmore Hospital, Inverness, Scotland
| | - Joanna Round
- Departments of Acute Medicine & Gastroenterology, Raigmore Hospital, Inverness, Scotland
| | - Conor McMullan
- Departments of Acute Medicine & Gastroenterology, Raigmore Hospital, Inverness, Scotland
| | - Majid Rashid
- Departments of Acute Medicine & Gastroenterology, Raigmore Hospital, Inverness, Scotland
| | - Robert Clark
- Departments of Acute Medicine & Gastroenterology, Raigmore Hospital, Inverness, Scotland
| | - Dara De Las Heras
- Departments of Acute Medicine & Gastroenterology, Raigmore Hospital, Inverness, Scotland
| | - Claire Vincent
- Departments of Acute Medicine & Gastroenterology, Raigmore Hospital, Inverness, Scotland
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Monteiro S, Gonçalves TC, Magalhães J, Cotter J. Upper gastrointestinal bleeding risk scores: Who, when and why? World J Gastrointest Pathophysiol 2016; 7:86-96. [PMID: 26909231 PMCID: PMC4753192 DOI: 10.4291/wjgp.v7.i1.86] [Citation(s) in RCA: 45] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/25/2015] [Revised: 09/02/2015] [Accepted: 12/11/2015] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Abstract
Upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) remains a significant cause of hospital admission. In order to stratify patients according to the risk of the complications, such as rebleeding or death, and to predict the need of clinical intervention, several risk scores have been proposed and their use consistently recommended by international guidelines. The use of risk scoring systems in early assessment of patients suffering from UGIB may be useful to distinguish high-risks patients, who may need clinical intervention and hospitalization, from low risk patients with a lower chance of developing complications, in which management as outpatients can be considered. Although several scores have been published and validated for predicting different outcomes, the most frequently cited ones are the Rockall score and the Glasgow Blatchford score (GBS). While Rockall score, which incorporates clinical and endoscopic variables, has been validated to predict mortality, the GBS, which is based on clinical and laboratorial parameters, has been studied to predict the need of clinical intervention. Despite the advantages previously reported, their use in clinical decisions is still limited. This review describes the different risk scores used in the UGIB setting, highlights the most important research, explains why and when their use may be helpful, reflects on the problems that remain unresolved and guides future research with practical impact.
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Bai Y, Li ZS. Guidelines for the diagnosis and treatment of acute non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (2015, Nanchang, China). J Dig Dis 2016; 17:79-87. [PMID: 26853440 DOI: 10.1111/1751-2980.12319] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/11/2022]
Abstract
Acute non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (ANVUGIB) is one of the most common medical emergencies in China and worldwide. In 2009, we published the "Guidelines for the diagnosis and treatment of acute non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding" for the patients in China; however, during the past years numerous studies on the diagnosis and treatment of ANVUGIB have been conducted, and the management of ANVUGIB needs to be updated. The guidelines were updated after the databases including PubMed, Embase and CNKI were searched to retrieve the clinical trials on the management of ANVUGIB. The clinical trials were evaluated for high-quality evidence, and the advances in definitions, diagnosis, etiology, severity evaluation, treatment and prognosis of ANVUGIB were carefully reviewed, the recommendations were then proposed. After several rounds of discussions and revisions among the national experts of digestive endoscopy, gastroenterology, radiology and intensive care, the 2015 version of "Guidelines for the diagnosis and treatment of acute non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding" was successfully developed by the Chinese Journal of Internal Medicine, National Medical Journal of China, Chinese Journal of Digestion and Chinese Journal of Digestive Endoscopy. It shall be noted that although much progress has been made, the clinical management of ANVUGIB still needs further improvement and refinement, and high-quality randomized trials are required in the future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yu Bai
- Department of Gastroenterology, Changhai Hospital, Second Military Medical University, Shanghai, China
| | - Zhao Shen Li
- Department of Gastroenterology, Changhai Hospital, Second Military Medical University, Shanghai, China
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Blatchford Score Is Superior to AIMS65 Score in Predicting the Need for Clinical Interventions in Elderly Patients with Nonvariceal Upper Gastrointestinal Bleed. Adv Med 2016; 2016:6850754. [PMID: 27648468 PMCID: PMC5018310 DOI: 10.1155/2016/6850754] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/15/2016] [Revised: 07/28/2016] [Accepted: 08/09/2016] [Indexed: 01/29/2023] Open
Abstract
Background. Blatchford and AIMS65 scores were developed to risk stratify patients with upper gastrointestinal bleed (UGIB). We sought to assess the performance of Blatchford and AIMS65 scores in predicting outcomes in elderly patients with nonvariceal UGIB. Methods. A retrospective cohort study of elderly patients (over 65 years of age) with nonvariceal UGIB admitted to a tertiary care center. Primary outcome was a combined outcome of in-hospital mortality, need for any therapeutic endoscopic, radiologic, or surgical intervention, rebleeding within 30 days, or blood transfusion. Secondary outcome was a combined outcome of in-hospital mortality or need for an intervention to control the bleed. Results. 164 patients were included. The primary outcome occurred in 119 (72.5%) patients. The secondary outcome occurred in 12 patients (7.2%). Blatchford score was superior to AIMS65 score in predicting the primary outcome (area under the receiver-operator curve (AUROC) 0.84 versus 0.68, resp., p < 0.001). Both scores performed poorly in predicting the secondary outcome (AUROC 0.56 versus 0.52, resp., p = 0.18). Conclusions. Blatchford score could be useful in predicting the need for hospital based interventions in elderly patients with nonvariceal UGIB. Blatchford and AIMS65 scores are poor predictors of the need for a therapeutic intervention to control bleeding.
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Waddell KM, Stanley AJ. Risk assessment scores for patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding and their use in clinical practice. Hosp Pract (1995) 2015; 43:290-298. [PMID: 26536295 DOI: 10.1080/21548331.2015.1103636] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/05/2023]
Abstract
Upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is a common cause for emergency admission to hospital representing a significant clinical as well as economic burden. UGIB encompasses a wide range of severities from life-threatening exsanguination to minor bleeding that may not require hospital admission. Patients with UGIB are often initially assessed and managed by junior doctors and non-gastroenterologists. Several risk scores have been created for the assessment of these patients, some requiring endoscopic data for calculation and others that are calculable from clinical data alone. A key question in clinical practice is how to accurately identify patients with UGIB at high risk of adverse outcome. Patients considered high risk are more likely to experience adverse outcomes and will require urgent intervention. In contrast, those patients with UGIB who are considered to be low risk could potentially be managed on an outpatient basis. The Glasgow Blatchford Score (GBS) appears best at identifying patients at low risk of requiring intervention or death and therefore may be best for use in clinical practice, allowing outpatient management in low risk cases. There has been some debate as to the optimal GBS cut-off score for safely identifying this low-risk group. Many guidelines suggest that patients with a GBS of zero can be safely managed as outpatients, but more recent studies have suggested that this threshold could potentially be safely increased to ≤1. Most other patients require inpatient endoscopy within 24 h and the full Rockall score remains important for risk assessment following endoscopy, particularly as it includes the endoscopic diagnosis. A minority of patients will require emergency endoscopy following resuscitation, but at present there is no evidence that risk scores can accurately identify this very high-risk group. Studies have shown the latest risk assessment score, the AIMS65, looks promising in the prediction of mortality. However, to date there is no data on the use of the AIMS65 in identifying low risk patients for possible outpatient management.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Adrian J Stanley
- b FRCP Gastroenterology, Glasgow Royal Infirmary , Glasgow , Scotland
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Hoffmann V, Neubauer H, Heinzler J, Smarczyk A, Hellmich M, Bowe A, Kuetting F, Demir M, Pelc A, Schulte S, Toex U, Nierhoff D, Steffen HM. A Novel Easy-to-Use Prediction Scheme for Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding: Cologne-WATCH (C-WATCH) Risk Score. Medicine (Baltimore) 2015; 94:e1614. [PMID: 26402828 PMCID: PMC4635768 DOI: 10.1097/md.0000000000001614] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/26/2022] Open
Abstract
Acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is the leading indication for emergency endoscopy. Scoring schemes have been developed for immediate risk stratification. However, most of these scores include endoscopic findings and are based on data from patients with nonvariceal bleeding. The aim of our study was to design a pre-endoscopic score for acute UGIB--including variceal bleeding--in order to identify high-risk patients requiring urgent clinical management. The scoring system was developed using a data set consisting of 586 patients with acute UGIB. These patients were identified from the emergency department as well as all inpatient services at the University Hospital of Cologne within a 2-year period (01/2007-12/2008). Further data from a cohort of 322 patients who presented to our endoscopy unit with acute UGIB in 2009 served for external/temporal validation.Clinical, laboratory, and endoscopic parameters, as well as further data on medical history and medication were retrospectively collected from the electronic clinical documentation system. A multivariable logistic regression was fitted to the development set to obtain a risk score using recurrent bleeding, need for intervention (angiography, surgery), or death within 30 days as a composite endpoint. Finally, the obtained risk score was evaluated on the validation set. Only C-reactive protein, white blood cells, alanine-aminotransferase, thrombocytes, creatinine, and hemoglobin were identified as significant predictors for the composite endpoint. Based on the regression coefficients of these variables, an easy-to-use point scoring scheme (C-WATCH) was derived to estimate the risk of complications from 3% to 86% with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.723 in the development set and 0.704 in the validation set. In the validation set, no patient in the identified low-risk group (0-1 points), but 38.7% of patients in the high-risk group (≥ 2 points) reached the composite endpoint. Our easy-to-use scoring scheme is able to distinguish high-risk patients requiring urgent endoscopy, from low-risk cases who are suitable candidates for outpatient management or in whom endoscopy may be postponed. Based on our findings, a prospective validation of the C-WATCH score in different patient populations outside the university hospital setting seems warranted.
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Affiliation(s)
- Vera Hoffmann
- From the Clinic for Gastroenterology and Hepatology, University Hospital of Cologne, Kerpener Str. 62, Köln, Germany (HV, NH, HJ, SA, BA, KF, DM, PA, SS, TU, ND, SHM); Institute of Medical Statistics, Informatics and Epidemiology, University of Cologne, Kerpener Str. 62, Köln, Germany (HM)
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