Trend of hepatocellular carcinoma incidence after Bayesian correction for misclassified data in Iranian provinces

Table 1 Expected coverage of cancer cases in provinces of Iran (2004-2008)

	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008
South khorasan		30.30	45.16	41.02	41.40
Razavi khorasan	106.50	106.50	101.81	117.54	143.74
Tehran	157.11	157.11	162.25	145.74	155.63
Markazi	43.35	43.35	53.07	57.46	69.60
Sistan	25.24	25.24	18.78	18.83	18.44
Qom	53.09	53.09	62.76	60.98	53.90
Ghazvin	65.07	65.07	71.44	72.84	66.30
Khozesta	61.09	61.09	62.68	69.81	101.19
Ilam	28.42	28.42	32.97	41.27	39.40
Bushehr	28.46	28.46	29.10	26.00	25.00
Golestan	50.65	50.65	58.61	58.20	50.80
Mazandaran	148.13	148.13	161.78	163.83	338.45
North khorasan		30.76	40.47	44.87	34.80
Chaharmahal	40.67	40.67	34.39	40.76	37.00
Isfahan	111.51	111.51	114.09	116.93	106.98
Kohgilouye	23.90	23.90	29.00	29.60	25.10
Hormozgan	25.44	25.44	25.11	25.31	19.00
Fars	98.07	98.07	112.01	134.53	127.65
Ardebil	63.73	63.73	72.71	64.99	63.00
East azarbaijan	108.22	108.22	110.98	138.52	123.60
West azarbaijan	81.96	81.96	75.32	82.53	69.00

Table 2 Bayesian estimated from misclassification rate between provinces

		Estimated misclassification rate
		2004	2005	2006	2007	2008
Razavi khorasan	South khorasan		0.2	0.51	0.44	0.58
Tehran	Markazi	0.31	0.41	0.39	0.38	0.73
Razavi khorasan	Sistan	0.39	0.39	0.65	0.41	0.51
Tehran	Qom	0.18	0.22	0.18	0.28	0.65
Tehran	Ghazvin	0.2	0.25	0.5	0.4	0.74
Khozesta	Ilam	0.19	0.21	0.42	0.5	0.73
Khozesta	Bushehr	0.38	0.4	0.31	0.36	0.72
Mazandaran	Golestan	0.08	0.28	0.21	0.14	0.38
Razavi khorasan	North khorasan		0.16	0.43	0.34	0.42
Isfahan	Chaharmahal	0.16	0.16	0.18	0.39	0.23
Isfahan	Kohgilouye	0.18	0.43	0.16	0.18	0.16
Fars	Hormozgan	0.3	0.34	0.4	0.38	0.64
East azarbaijan	Ardebil	0.36	0.17	0.13	0.46	0.13
East azarbaijan	West azarbaijan	0.28	0.15	0.05	0.25	0.42

Table 3 Age standardized rate of hepatocellular carcinoma

	ASR before Bayesian correction					ASR after Bayesian correction
	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008
South khorasan		0.50	0.46	0.46	0.47		0.83	0.98	0.95	1.12
Razavi khorasan	0.74	0.35	1.18	0.91	1.57	0.54	0.17	0.61	0.25	0.64
Tehran	0.43	0.44	0.57	0.46	2.23	0.37	0.37	0.51	0.41	2.12
Markazi	0.37	0.25	0.35	0.30	0.32	0.63	0.48	0.61	0.49	0.66
Sistan	0.44	0.21	0.26	0.52	0.63	1.07	0.50	1.14	1.65	1.90
Qom	0.67	0.55	0.95	0.45	0.48	0.90	0.78	1.22	0.65	1.05
Ghazvin	0.62	0.47	0.24	0.27	0.32	0.80	0.65	0.40	0.42	0.67
Khozesta	0.79	0.65	1.00	1.23	5.09	0.62	0.46	0.73	0.93	4.47
Ilam	1.13	0.86	0.54	0.49	0.78	1.88	1.50	1.23	1.07	2.23
Bushehr	0.45	0.36	0.85	0.83	0.82	1.05	0.87	1.75	1.97	3.16
Golestan	0.76	0.40	0.83	0.55	0.66	0.88	0.62	1.13	0.68	1.14
Mazandaran	0.22	0.46	0.61	0.28	1.04	0.18	0.35	0.43	0.20	0.80
North khorasan		0.62	0.62	0.76	0.86		0.94	1.28	1.34	1.89
Chaharmahal	0.84	1.13	1.02	0.52	1.01	1.17	1.57	1.55	1.01	1.62
Isfahan	0.41	0.61	0.64	0.85	0.83	0.27	0.40	0.44	0.68	0.52
Kohgilouye	0.39	0.32	1.15	1.36	1.54	0.68	0.90	1.78	2.18	2.51
Hormozgan	0.26	0.25	0.69	0.68	0.51	0.56	0.57	1.78	1.70	2.23
Fars	0.30	0.35	1.12	0.80	2.21	0.22	0.27	0.67	0.54	1.56
Ardebil	0.47	0.49	0.41	0.41	2.20	0.74	0.61	0.48	0.69	2.65
East azarbaijan	0.69	0.30	0.19	0.92	0.97	0.44	0.16	0.12	0.57	0.61
West azarbaijan	0.64	0.55	0.91	0.98	0.53	0.86	0.64	0.97	1.27	0.84