Comparison of fecal calprotectin levels and endoscopic scores for predicting relapse in patients with ulcerative colitis in remission

Table 1 Baseline patient characteristics

Characteristic	All, n = 75
Age in yr, median [IQR]	49 [36, 62]
Male/Female, n (%)	45 (60.0)/30 (40.0)
Disease duration in yr, median [IQR]	8 [5, 13]
Disease extent, n (%)
Extensive colitis	45 (60.0)
Left-sided colitis	24 (32.0)
Proctitis	6 (8.0)
CAI by the Rachmilewitz index, median [IQR]	0 [0, 1]
MES, n (%)
MES 0	43 (57.3)
MES 1	32 (42.7)
UCEIS, n (%)
UCEIS 0	39 (52.0)
UCEIS 1	17 (22.7)
UCEIS 2	13 (17.3)
UCEIS 3	6 (8.0)
UCCIS, median [IQR]	0 [0, 6.7]
FC in mg/kg, median [IQR]	174 [43, 810]
Medication used during the study, n (%)
Oral 5-ASA	48 (64.0)
Suppository steroids	2 (2.7)
Systemic steroids	9 (12.0)
Immunomodulators	23 (30.7)
Biologics	30 (40.0)

5-ASA: 5-aminosalicylic acid; CAI: Clinical activity index; FC: Fecal calprotectin; IQR: Interquartile range; MES: Mayo Endoscopic Subscore; UCCIS: Ulcerative Colitis Colonoscopic Index of Severity; UCEIS: Ulcerative Colitis Endoscopic Index of Severity.

Table 2 Receiver-operating characteristic analysis of fecal calprotectin and Ulcerative Colitis Colonic Index of Severity for predicting Mayo Endoscopic Subscore 0

Factor	FC	UCCIS
Cut-off value	385	6.6
AUC (95%CI)	0.858 (0.770-0.946)	0.987 (0.969-1.000)
PPV	0.793	0.992
NPV	0.804	0.994
Sensitivity	0.719	0.992
Specificity	0.804	0.985
Accuracy	0.800	0.947

AUC: Area under the curve; CI: Confidence interval; FC: Fecal calprotectin; NPV: Negative predictive value; PPV: Positive predictive value; UCCIS: Ulcerative Colitis Colonoscopic Index of Severity.

Table 3 Comparison of accuracy of relapse prediction between fecal calprotectin levels, Ulcerative Colitis Colonoscopic Index of Severity, Mayo Endoscopic Subscore, and Ulcerative Colitis Endoscopic Index of Severity

Factor	Sensitivity	Specificity	PPV	NPV	Accuracy
FC ≥ 323	0.500	0.933	0.833	0.737	0.760
UCCIS ≥ 10.2	0.750	0.898	0.667	0.930	0.867
MES 1	0.833	0.702	0.469	0.930	0.733
UCEIS ≥ 2	0.722	0.895	0.684	0.911	0.853

FC: Fecal calprotectin; MES: Mayo Endoscopic Subscore; NPV: Negative predictive value; PPV: Positive predictive value; UCCIS: Ulcerative Colitis Colonoscopic Index of Severity; UCEIS: Ulcerative Colitis Endoscopic Index of Severity.