Retrospective Cohort Study
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©The Author(s) 2022. Published by Baishideng Publishing Group Inc. All rights reserved.
World J Gastroenterol. Oct 14, 2022; 28(38): 5602-5613
Published online Oct 14, 2022. doi: 10.3748/wjg.v28.i38.5602
Table 1 Characteristics of the patients
Patient characteristics Total, n = 683 Time to ERCP divided by 24 h Time to ERCP divided by 48 h ERCP ≤ 24 h, n = 134 ERCP > 24 h, n = 549 P value ERCP ≤ 48 h, n = 314 ERCP > 48 h, n = 369 P value Age in yr1 66 (53-78) 64 (56-75.5) 66 (52-78) 0.803 65 (54-79) 66 (51-79) 0.518 Male sex, n (%) 391 (57.2) 76 (56.7) 315 (57.4) 0.890 171 (54.5) 220 (59.6) 0.174 Body temperature in °C1 37.5 (36.8-38.4) 37.2 (36.7-38.1) 37.5 (36.9-38.5) 0.003 37.4 (36.8-38.28) 37.6 (36.9-38.5) 0.009 Abnormal WBC count2 , n (%) 399 (58.4) 95 (70.9) 304 (55.4) 0.001 195 (62.1) 204 (55.3) 0.072 Platelet count as /µL1 198 (148-251) 205 (142-256) 196.5 (149-250) 0.806 195 (148-249.8) 200 (148-251.5) 0.844 AST in U/L1 150 (83-305) 175 (97-406) 145 (80-289) 0.063 164 (95-311) 139 (76-302) 0.08 ALT in U/L1 166 (82-300) 194 (118-337) 156 (79-292) 0.02 188 (101-311) 142 (69-277) 0.004 ALK-P in U/L1 205 (133-327) 198 (123-321) 209 (133-327) 0.486 190 (123-329) 211 (140-324) 0.208 Amylase in U/L1 65 (41-170) (n = 307) 68 (42-634) (n = 66) 65 (40-145) (n = 241) 0.126 68 (41-367) (n = 138) 62 (40-139) (n = 169) 0.118 Lipase in U/L1 37 (26-144) (n = 487) 46 (25-1297) (n = 97) 36 (26-99) (n = 390) 0.104 41 (26-339) (n = 232) 35 (26-76) (n = 255) 0.094 Bilirubin in mg/dL1 3.7 (2.3-6.3) 4.1 (2.6-5.8) 3.7 (2.3-6.3) 0.395 3.8 (2.4-6.2) 3.7 (2.3-6.5) 0.878 PT/INR1 1.1 (1.1-1.2) 1.1 (1.1-1.3) 1.1 (1.1-1.2) 0.685 1.1 (1.1-1.2) 1.2 (1.1-1.3) 0.001 Creatinine in mg/dL1 0.93 (0.73-1.24) 0.96 (0.78-1.45) 0.93 (0.72-1.20) 0.040 0.95 (0.75-1.28) 0.93 (0.72-1.21) 0.389 Albumin in g/dL1 3.56 (3.05-3.98) (n = 133) 3.83 (3.24-4.0) (n = 23) 3.48 (3.05-3.98) (n = 110) 0.218 3.69 (3.21-3.96) (n = 43) 3.46 (2.98-3.99) (n = 90) 0.334 Cardiovascular dysfunction, n (%) 29 (4.2) 15 (11.2) 14 (2.6) < 0.001 18 (5.7) 11 (3.0) 0.076 Neurological disturbance, n (%) 35 (5.1) 9 (6.7) 26 (4.7) 0.351 16 (5.1) 19 (5.1) 0.975 Respiratory dysfunction, n (%) 48 (7) 19 (14.2) 29 (5.3) < 0.001 24 (7.6) 24 (6.5) 0.562
Table 2 Characteristics of endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography
Patient characteristics Total, n = 683 Time to ERCP divided by 24 h Time to ERCP divided by 48 h ERCP ≤ 24 h, n = 134 ERCP > 24 h, n = 549 P value ERCP ≤ 48 h, n = 314 ERCP > 48 h, n = 369 P value Time to ERCP in h1 53.8 (28.4-90.7) 17.7 (9.0-20.4) 67.6 (43.6-98.9) - 26.0 (18.8-40.1) 88.5 (67.2-114.6) Indications of ERCP, n (%) Common bile duct stones 508 (74.4) 107 (79.9) 401 (73) 0.106 256 (81.5) 252 (68.3) < 0.001 Malignant obstruction 70 (10.2) 7 (5.2) 63 (11.5) 0.032 19 (6.1) 51 (13.8) < 0.001 Stent dysfunction 61 (8.9) 8 (6.0) 53 (9.7) 0.180 17 (5.4) 44 (11.9) 0.003 Benign stricture 31 (4.5) 8 (6.0) 23 (4.2) 0.375 15 (4.8) 16 (4.3) 0.783 Others 13 (1.9) 4 (3.0) 9 (1.6) 0.296 7 (2.2) 6 (1.6) 0.565 Treatment during ERCP, n (%) ES 558 (81.7) 112 (83.6) 446 (81.2) 0.529 269 (85.7) 289 (78.3) 0.013 EPBD 5 (0.7) 0 5 (0.9) 0.589 2 (0.6) 3 (0.8) 1 Stone retrieval 502 (73.5) 108 (80.6) 394 (71.8) 0.038 250 (79.6) 252 (68.3) 0.001 Clearance without stone 37 (5.4) 5 (3.7) 32 (5.8) 0.336 16 (5.1) 21 (5.7) 0.732 Removal of old stents 60 (8.8) 6 (4.5) 54 (9.8) 0.049 17 (5.4) 43 (11.7) 0.004 Stent insertion 187 (27.4) 35 (26.1) 152 (27.7) 0.715 70 (22.3) 117 (31.7) 0.006 Biliary stricture dilatation 7 (1.0) 1 (0.7) 6 (1.1) 1 1 (0.3) 6 (1.6) 0.132 Others 3 (0.4) 0 3 (0.5) 1 0 3 (0.8) 0.254 ERCP failure, n (%) 7 (1.0) 0 7 (1.3) 0.356 1 (0.3) 6 (1.6) 0.132
Table 3 Primary and secondary outcomes
Outcomes Total Time to ERCP divided by 24 h Time to ERCP divided by 48 h ERCP ≤ 24 h ERCP > 24 h P value ERCP ≤ 48 h ERCP > 48 h P value Overall n = 683n = 134n = 549n = 314n = 36930-d mortality, n (%) 7 (1.02) 0 7 (1.3) 0.356 0 7 (1.9) 0.017 ICU admission, n (%) 37 (5.4) 15 (11.2) 22 (4) 0.001 22 (7.0) 15 (4.07) 0.091 LOHS in d1 7 (5-10) 6 (4-10) 7 (5-10) 0.018 6 (4-9) 8 (6-11) < 0.001 30-d readmission, n (%) 87 (12.7) 16 (11.9) 71 (12.9) 0.757 40 (12.7) 47 (12.7) 0.999 Grade III AC n = 170n = 39n = 131n = 72n = 9830-d mortality, n (%) 6 (3.5) 0 6 (4.6) 0.338 0 6 (6.1) 0.039 ICU admission, n (%) 26 (15.3) 12 (9.0) 14 (2.6) 0.002 16 (22.2) 10 (10.2) 0.031 LOHS in d1 7 (7-14) 10 (6-16.5) 9 (7-12) 0.637 9 (6-15) 9 (7-12) 0.448 30-d readmission, n (%) 23 (13.5) 4 (3) 19 (14.5) 0.602 10 (13.9) 13 (13.3) 0.906 Grade II AC n = 179n = 39n = 140n = 88n = 9130-d mortality, n (%) 0 0 0 - 0 0 - ICU admission, n (%) 5 (2.8) 2 (5.1) 3 (2.1) 0.299 3 (3.4) 2 (2.2) 0.679 LOHS in d1 7 (5-10) 6 (4-9.5) 7 (5.8-10) 0.047 6 (4.8-9) 8 (6-11) 0.001 30-d readmission, n (%) 24 (13.4) 4 (10.3) 20 (14.3) 0.514 8 (9.1) 16 (17.6) 0.096 Grade I AC n = 334n = 56n = 278n = 154n = 18030-d mortality, n (%) 1 (0.3) 0 1 (0.36) 1 0 1 (0.56) 1 ICU admission, n (%) 6 (1.8) 1 (1.8) 5 (1.8) 1 3 (1.9) 3 (1.7) 1 LOHS in d1 6 (5-9) 6 (4-8.3) 7 (5-9.8) 0.005 6 (4-7) 7 (6-11) < 0.001 30-d readmission, n (%) 40 (12) 8 (14.3) 32 (11.5) 0.56 22 (14.3) 18 0.229
Table 4 Univariate and multivariate analyses of the factors associated with 30-d mortality
Variables Univariate analysis Multivariate analysis OR (95%CI) P value OR (95%CI) P value Age ≥ 75 yr 1.772 (0.393-7.991) 0.456 < 75 yr Reference Common bile duct stones Yes 0.254 (0.056-1.146) 0.075 No Reference Malignant biliary obstruction Yes 6.817 (1.494-31.109) 0.013 7.718 (0.664-89.660) 0.102 No Reference Fever, BT ≥ 39 °C Yes 1.045 (0.124-8.777) 0.968 No Reference Abnormal WBC count Yes 1.789 (0.345-9.289) 0.489 No Reference Hyperbilirubinemia, ≥ 5 mg/dL Yes 1.382 (0.307-6.228) 0.673 No Reference Hepatic dysfunction, PT-INR > 1.5 Yes 8.896 (1.645-48.119) 0.011 2.257 (0.275-18.553) 0.449 No Reference Hematological dysfunction, PLT < 100 × 103 /µL Yes 4.885 (0.919-25.649) 0.063 No Reference Renal dysfunction, Cr > 2.0 mg/dL Yes 4.548 (0.862-23.998) 0.074 No Reference Respiratory dysfunction, PaO2 /FiO2 ratio > 300 Yes 10.517 (2.284-48.431) 0.003 1.644 (0.172-15.676) 0.666 No Reference Neurological dysfunction, conscious disturbance Yes 15.094 (3.241-70.298) 0.001 2.773 (0.380-20.238) 0.315 No Reference Cardiovascular dysfunction1 Yes 18.750 (3.990-88.112) < 0.001 17.756 (0.994-317.241) 0.050 No Reference Severity of AC Grade III 18.732 (2.239-156.728) 0.007 3.603 (0.274-47.356) 0.329 Grade II + I Reference ICU admission Yes 7.326 (1.373-39.101) 0.02 2.463 (0.204-29.703) 0.478 No Reference Time to ERCP Every 1-d delay 1.950 (1.252-3.038) 0.003 2.081 (1.154-3.753) 0.015