Retrospective Cohort Study
Copyright ©The Author(s) 2022.
World J Gastroenterol. Oct 14, 2022; 28(38): 5602-5613
Published online Oct 14, 2022. doi: 10.3748/wjg.v28.i38.5602
Table 1 Characteristics of the patients
Patient characteristics
Total, n = 683
Time to ERCP divided by 24 h
Time to ERCP divided by 48 h
ERCP ≤ 24 h, n = 134
ERCP > 24 h, n = 549
P value
ERCP ≤ 48 h, n = 314
ERCP > 48 h, n = 369
P value
Age in yr166 (53-78)64 (56-75.5)66 (52-78)0.80365 (54-79) 66 (51-79)0.518
Male sex, n (%)391 (57.2)76 (56.7)315 (57.4)0.890171 (54.5)220 (59.6)0.174
Body temperature in °C137.5 (36.8-38.4)37.2 (36.7-38.1)37.5 (36.9-38.5)0.00337.4 (36.8-38.28)37.6 (36.9-38.5)0.009
Abnormal WBC count2, n (%) 399 (58.4)95 (70.9)304 (55.4)0.001195 (62.1)204 (55.3)0.072
Platelet count as /µL1198 (148-251)205 (142-256)196.5 (149-250)0.806195 (148-249.8)200 (148-251.5)0.844
AST in U/L1150 (83-305)175 (97-406)145 (80-289)0.063164 (95-311)139 (76-302)0.08
ALT in U/L1166 (82-300)194 (118-337)156 (79-292)0.02188 (101-311)142 (69-277)0.004
ALK-P in U/L1205 (133-327)198 (123-321)209 (133-327)0.486190 (123-329)211 (140-324)0.208
Amylase in U/L165 (41-170) (n = 307)68 (42-634) (n = 66)65 (40-145) (n = 241)0.12668 (41-367) (n = 138)62 (40-139) (n = 169)0.118
Lipase in U/L137 (26-144) (n = 487)46 (25-1297) (n = 97)36 (26-99) (n = 390)0.10441 (26-339) (n = 232)35 (26-76) (n = 255)0.094
Bilirubin in mg/dL13.7 (2.3-6.3)4.1 (2.6-5.8)3.7 (2.3-6.3)0.3953.8 (2.4-6.2)3.7 (2.3-6.5)0.878
PT/INR11.1 (1.1-1.2)1.1 (1.1-1.3)1.1 (1.1-1.2)0.6851.1 (1.1-1.2)1.2 (1.1-1.3)0.001
Creatinine in mg/dL10.93 (0.73-1.24)0.96 (0.78-1.45)0.93 (0.72-1.20)0.0400.95 (0.75-1.28)0.93 (0.72-1.21)0.389
Albumin in g/dL13.56 (3.05-3.98) (n = 133)3.83 (3.24-4.0) (n = 23)3.48 (3.05-3.98) (n = 110)0.2183.69 (3.21-3.96) (n = 43)3.46 (2.98-3.99) (n = 90)0.334
Cardiovascular dysfunction, n (%)29 (4.2)15 (11.2)14 (2.6)< 0.00118 (5.7)11 (3.0)0.076
Neurological disturbance, n (%)35 (5.1)9 (6.7)26 (4.7)0.35116 (5.1)19 (5.1)0.975
Respiratory dysfunction, n (%)48 (7)19 (14.2)29 (5.3)< 0.00124 (7.6)24 (6.5)0.562
Table 2 Characteristics of endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography
Patient characteristics
Total, n = 683
Time to ERCP divided by 24 h
Time to ERCP divided by 48 h
ERCP ≤ 24 h, n = 134
ERCP > 24 h, n = 549
P value
ERCP ≤ 48 h, n = 314
ERCP > 48 h, n = 369
P value
Time to ERCP in h1 53.8 (28.4-90.7)17.7 (9.0-20.4)67.6 (43.6-98.9)-26.0 (18.8-40.1)88.5 (67.2-114.6)
Indications of ERCP, n (%)
Common bile duct stones508 (74.4)107 (79.9)401 (73)0.106256 (81.5)252 (68.3)< 0.001
Malignant obstruction70 (10.2)7 (5.2)63 (11.5)0.03219 (6.1)51 (13.8)< 0.001
Stent dysfunction61 (8.9)8 (6.0)53 (9.7)0.18017 (5.4)44 (11.9)0.003
Benign stricture31 (4.5)8 (6.0)23 (4.2)0.37515 (4.8)16 (4.3)0.783
Others13 (1.9)4 (3.0)9 (1.6)0.2967 (2.2)6 (1.6)0.565
Treatment during ERCP, n (%)
ES558 (81.7)112 (83.6)446 (81.2)0.529269 (85.7)289 (78.3)0.013
EPBD5 (0.7)05 (0.9)0.5892 (0.6)3 (0.8)1
Stone retrieval502 (73.5)108 (80.6)394 (71.8)0.038250 (79.6)252 (68.3)0.001
Clearance without stone37 (5.4)5 (3.7)32 (5.8)0.33616 (5.1)21 (5.7)0.732
Removal of old stents60 (8.8)6 (4.5)54 (9.8)0.04917 (5.4)43 (11.7)0.004
Stent insertion187 (27.4)35 (26.1)152 (27.7)0.71570 (22.3)117 (31.7)0.006
Biliary stricture dilatation7 (1.0)1 (0.7)6 (1.1)11 (0.3)6 (1.6)0.132
Others3 (0.4)03 (0.5)103 (0.8)0.254
ERCP failure, n (%)7 (1.0)07 (1.3)0.3561 (0.3)6 (1.6)0.132
Table 3 Primary and secondary outcomes
Outcomes
Total
Time to ERCP divided by 24 h
Time to ERCP divided by 48 h
ERCP ≤ 24 h
ERCP > 24 h
P value
ERCP ≤ 48 h
ERCP > 48 h
P value
Overall n = 683n = 134n = 549n = 314n = 369
30-d mortality, n (%)7 (1.02)07 (1.3)0.35607 (1.9)0.017
ICU admission, n (%)37 (5.4)15 (11.2)22 (4)0.00122 (7.0)15 (4.07)0.091
LOHS in d17 (5-10)6 (4-10)7 (5-10)0.0186 (4-9)8 (6-11)< 0.001
30-d readmission, n (%)87 (12.7)16 (11.9)71 (12.9)0.75740 (12.7)47 (12.7)0.999
Grade III ACn = 170n = 39n = 131n = 72n = 98
30-d mortality, n (%)6 (3.5)06 (4.6)0.33806 (6.1)0.039
ICU admission, n (%)26 (15.3)12 (9.0)14 (2.6)0.00216 (22.2)10 (10.2)0.031
LOHS in d17 (7-14)10 (6-16.5)9 (7-12)0.6379 (6-15)9 (7-12)0.448
30-d readmission, n (%)23 (13.5)4 (3)19 (14.5)0.60210 (13.9)13 (13.3)0.906
Grade II ACn = 179n = 39n = 140n = 88n = 91
30-d mortality, n (%)000-00-
ICU admission, n (%)5 (2.8)2 (5.1)3 (2.1)0.2993 (3.4)2 (2.2)0.679
LOHS in d17 (5-10)6 (4-9.5)7 (5.8-10)0.0476 (4.8-9)8 (6-11)0.001
30-d readmission, n (%)24 (13.4)4 (10.3)20 (14.3)0.5148 (9.1)16 (17.6)0.096
Grade I ACn = 334n = 56n = 278n = 154n = 180
30-d mortality, n (%)1 (0.3)01 (0.36)101 (0.56)1
ICU admission, n (%)6 (1.8)1 (1.8)5 (1.8)13 (1.9)3 (1.7)1
LOHS in d16 (5-9)6 (4-8.3)7 (5-9.8)0.0056 (4-7)7 (6-11)< 0.001
30-d readmission, n (%)40 (12)8 (14.3)32 (11.5)0.5622 (14.3)180.229
Table 4 Univariate and multivariate analyses of the factors associated with 30-d mortality
Variables
Univariate analysis
Multivariate analysis
OR (95%CI)
P value
OR (95%CI)
P value
Age≥ 75 yr1.772 (0.393-7.991)0.456
< 75 yr
Reference
Common bile duct stonesYes0.254 (0.056-1.146)0.075
No
Reference
Malignant biliary obstructionYes6.817 (1.494-31.109)0.0137.718 (0.664-89.660)0.102
No
Reference
Fever, BT ≥ 39 °CYes1.045 (0.124-8.777)0.968
No
Reference
Abnormal WBC countYes1.789 (0.345-9.289)0.489
No
Reference
Hyperbilirubinemia, ≥ 5 mg/dLYes1.382 (0.307-6.228)0.673
No
Reference
Hepatic dysfunction, PT-INR > 1.5Yes8.896 (1.645-48.119)0.0112.257 (0.275-18.553)0.449
No
Reference
Hematological dysfunction, PLT < 100 × 103/µLYes4.885 (0.919-25.649)0.063
No
Reference
Renal dysfunction, Cr > 2.0 mg/dLYes4.548 (0.862-23.998)0.074
No
Reference
Respiratory dysfunction, PaO2/FiO2 ratio > 300Yes10.517 (2.284-48.431)0.0031.644 (0.172-15.676)0.666
No
Reference
Neurological dysfunction, conscious disturbanceYes15.094 (3.241-70.298)0.0012.773 (0.380-20.238)0.315
No
Reference
Cardiovascular dysfunction1Yes18.750 (3.990-88.112)< 0.00117.756 (0.994-317.241)0.050
No
Reference
Severity of ACGrade III18.732 (2.239-156.728)0.0073.603 (0.274-47.356)0.329
Grade II + I
Reference
ICU admissionYes7.326 (1.373-39.101)0.022.463 (0.204-29.703)0.478
No
Reference
Time to ERCPEvery 1-d delay1.950 (1.252-3.038)0.0032.081 (1.154-3.753)0.015