International patterns in incidence and mortality trends of pancreatic cancer in the last three decades: A joinpoint regression analysis

Table 1 Joinpoint analysis for pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality trends¹, by country/sex/age, since 1991 (as per data availability)

Countries2	Incidence						Mortality
	Males			Females			Males			Females
	30-49	50-69	70+	30-49	50-69	70+	30-49	50-69	70+	30-49	50-69	70+
Australia	+1.81	+0.81	+0.71	+1.71	+1.31	+0.81	0.2	-0.1	+0.41	-0.2	-0.0	+0.81
Austria2							-0.3	-0.2	-0.0	0.4	0.3	+0.31
Belarus2	0.7	-0.1	-0.2	0.7	0.2	0.5
Belgium2							-1.21	-0.2	0.2	0.6	+0.61	+0.61
Brazil	2.5	+4.21	1.3	-	2.5	-0.0	+0.51	+1.41	+1.61	+2.01	+1.61	+1.61
Bulgaria	0.2	+2.91	+2.51	+2.91	+2.81	+3.11	-1.21	+1.51	+2.11	1.1	+1.81	+2.61
Canada	0.2	-0.2	-0.41	0.7	0.3	-0.31	-0.3	-0.81	-0.1	0.0	-0.61	+0.31
Chile	-	4.0	-1.3	-	0.3	-0.8	+2.21	0.4	+1.11	0.6	+0.81	+1.21
China3	0.6	+0.81	+1.01	-0.3	0.4	+1.61	+2.01	0.5	+1.11	-	0.4	+1.81
Colombia	-	0.2	-1.7	-0.1	-0.9	-0.8	0.9	0.3	0.3	0.6	-0.5	+0.71
Costa Rica	-0.7	-1.81	-0.3	-0.3	-0.9	-0.5	0.2	-1.4	-0.9	-1.8	0.4	-1.71
Croatia	-1.0	+0.71	0.7	0.6	+1.81	+0.81	-1.2	+0.81	+1.71	0.1	+1.31	+2.11
Cuba2							1.3	-0.1	-0.81	0.4	0.3	-0.3
Czechia	-1.91	+0.31	+0.61	0.4	+1.11	+0.71	-3.31	-0.2	+0.41	-2.71	+0.51	+0.41
Denmark	-0.7	+1.11	+1.01	0.8	+0.71	+0.91	-1.91	+0.51	0.5	-1.6	0.2	+0.71
El Salvador2							+5.81	+2.91	+4.71	-1.1	+4.21	+3.01
Estonia	-2.11	0.1	+1.71	-1.5	0.7	1.3	-3.21	-1.01	-1.61	-	0.4	+3.31
Finland	-1.41	+0.91	0.3	-0.4	+1.31	+0.51	-2.51	+0.71	+0.51	-2.51	+0.91	+0.61
France	+1.71	+2.91	+4.21	+2.81	+3.51	+4.91	-0.51	+0.31	+0.41	+1.61	+1.31	+1.11
Germany	-1.2	1.1	+1.21	0.9	1.4	0.7	-0.2	0.2	+0.61	+0.71	+0.81	+0.81
Guatemala2							-4.11	0.4	0.7	-1.6	0.3	-0.5
Hungary2							-2.01	+0.61	+0.51	-0.5	+1.01	+0.91
Iceland	-	-0.1	0.4	-	-0.1	-0.3	-	-1.4	0.8		-1.2	-0.1
India2,3	0.1	0.9	2.4	3.7	+4.01	+4.51
Ireland	0.9	+1.31	-0.0	1.5	0.3	+0.71	-1.2	-1.11	-0.0	-2.1	-0.91	+0.91
Israel	1.3	+1.21	+1.61	+4.21	+1.81	+1.21	-1.0	0.2	+1.01	0.7	0.6	+1.01
Italy	1.4	+0.91	+1.41	+4.51	+1.81	+2.11	-0.4	0.0	+0.71	0.5	+0.61	+1.31
Japan	-1.2	+0.71	+0.51	0.8	+1.61	+1.01	-1.41	+1.01	+0.71	-1.01	+1.71	+1.51
Kuwait	-	3.1	6.6	-0.0	-1.6	-	-	1.3	-1.9	-	2.7	2.1
Kyrgyzstan2							-0.1	0.2	+5.71	3.1	0.6	+3.21
Latvia	-2.21	0.0	-0.4	-2.3	+1.41	0.7	-2.71	-0.2	-0.2	-4.71	-0.1	+2.01
Lithuania	-2.21	-0.1	-0.1	1.5	0.1	+1.31	-0.7	-0.51	0.2	1.0	0.0	+1.3
Luxembourg2							-	-0.2	1.0	-	0.5	1.2
Malta	-	1.2	0.2	-	3.0	+2.31	-	1.4	-0.7	-	+2.01	+1.81
Mauritius2							-1.4	+1.41	+2.51	-	0.4	0.4
Mexico2							0.5	-0.81	-0.71	-0.6	-1.51	-0.0
Netherlands	0.5	+0.61	0.5	0.6	+1.61	+1.01	-0.5	-0.51	0.3	0.6	+1.01	+0.71
New Zealand	2.0	-0.3	0.4	0.8	0.1	0.9	1.0	-0.9	0.3	1.2	-0.5	+1.21
North Macedonia2							0.2	+1.21	+2.11	1.3	+1.61	+1.91
Norway	-0.8	0.4	0.2	0.2	+1.31	0.3	-0.4	-0.1	0.3	-1.8	0.2	+0.51
Panama2							-	-0.1	0.4	0.3	0.5	-0.5
Republic of Korea	-						-0.51	-0.3	+2.71	0.4	0.1	+4.51
Republic of Moldova2							-0.1	0.3	0.6	-2.2	-0.3	+1.71
Romania2							-0.8	+1.41	+2.21	-0.1	+1.51	+3.01
Russian Federation2							-1.61	0.0	+1.31	-0.2	-0.0	+2.11
Serbia2							-0.6	+1.01	+2.11	0.5	+1.11	+2.81
Singapore2							0.6	0.8	+2.11	-	0.5	+2.11
Slovakia	-1.51	+1.01	+1.61	0.7	+1.51	+2.31	-2.21	0.1	+0.91	-0.2	+0.91	+1.91
Slovenia	0.6	+1.21	+1.41	2.8	+1.91	+1.81	-1.5	+0.71	+1.11	0.8	0.4	+1.11
Spain	0.2	+1.31	0.3	2.0	+2.41	+0.91	-0.3	+0.71	+1.21	+1.51	+1.41	+1.51
Sweden	-0.4	0.0	-0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0	-2.21	0.0	+0.41	-1.81	-0.2	+0.61
Switzerland	1.2	0.9	-1.0	1.1	0.6	+1.91	-0.7	0.2	-0.2	0.7	0.1	+0.81
Turkey2	2.3	+3.41	+4.51	1.6	+3.61	+2.31
Turkmenistan2							-	+8.11	+12.81		3.2	+11.41
United Kingdom	0.3	+0.41	+0.41	+1.11	+0.71	+0.91	-0.61	-0.2	0.2	-0.3	-0.0	+0.71
United States	0.3	+0.61	+0.51	+1.61	+0.71	+0.41	-0.0	-0.0	+0.41	+0.71	-0.1	+0.51
Uruguay2							-2.3	+1.61	+1.31	2.4	+1.01	+1.81
Venezuela2							-1.81	0.8	0.3	-0.1	0.5	0.4

Source: GLOBOCAN 2020 estimates[2].

¹Statistically significant trend (P < 0.05), for full period presented.

²Joinpoint results are not shown for incidence/mortality in some countries, because there were no data for pancreatic cancer in the whole observed period continuously. For the trend analysis, we presented all incidence/mortality data available from 1991 onwards, provided that there were data for at least 15 years in a row continuously.

³These countries have sample vital registration systems (although coverage is low, the sample provides population-representative information)[14].