Trends and predictions for gastric cancer mortality in Brazil

Table 1 Deviance changes in the sequential construction of age-period and birth cohort models

Models	Brazil
	Female			Male
	Resid.DF	Res.Dev	P value	Resid.DF	Res.Dev	P value
Age	72	9069.3		72	15752.0
Age-drift	71	661.6	< 0.00001	71	515.1	< 0.00001
Age-cohort	67	390.5	< 0.00001	67	403.0	< 0.00001
Age-period-cohort	64	372.5	0.001	64	370.6	< 0.00001
Age-period	68	642.8	< 0.00001	68	485.9	< 0.00001
Age-drift	71	661.6	0.001	71	515.1	< 0.00001
Midwest
Models
Age	72	399.77		72	899.91
Age-drift	71	88.88	< 0.00001	71	116.80	< 0.00001
Age-cohort	67	72.14	0.002	67	111.94	0.302
Age-period-cohort	64	66.18	0.200	64	95.83	0.003
Age-period	68	83.03	0.002	68	100.13	0.366
Age-drift	71	88.88	0.210	71	116.80	0.002
North
Models
Age	72	325.04		72	1310.75
Age-drift	71	140.37	< 0.00001	71	779.28	< 0.00001
Age-cohort	67	129.65	0.030	67	751.44	< 0.00001
Age-period-cohort	64	110.22	0.001	64	178.57	0.003
Age-period	68	121.64	0.022	68	194.68	< 0.00001
Age-drift	71	140.37	0.001	71	779.28	< 0.00001
Northeast
Models
Age	72	566.75		72	1038.52
Age-drift	71	405.46	< 0.00001	71	656.22	< 0.00001
Age-cohort	67	269.65	< 0.00001	67	597.78	< 0.00001
Age-period-cohort	64	142.85	< 0.00001	64	155.70	< 0.00001
Age-period	68	230.83	< 0.00001	68	208.92	< 0.00001
Age-drift	71	405.46	< 0.00001	71	656.22	< 0.00001
South
Models
Age	72	1903.85		72	3090.98
Age-drift	71	219.90	< 0.00001	71	207.96	< 0.00001
Age-cohort	67	152.41	< 0.00001	67	189.07	0.001
Age-period-cohort	64	124.92	< 0.00001	64	129.74	< 0.00001
Age-period	68	200.58	< 0.00001	68	143.44	< 0.00001
Age-drift	71	219.90	0.001	71	207.96	< 0.00001
Southeast
Models
Age	72	6993.8		72	11604.0
Age-drift	71	447.6	< 0.00001	71	399.5	< 0.00001
Age-cohort	67	278.8	< 0.00001	67	290.5	< 0.00001
Age-period-cohort	64	217.6	< 0.00001	64	209.5	< 0.00001
Age-period	68	389.4	< 0.00001	68	284.7	< 0.00001
Age-drift	71	447.6	< 0.00001	71	399.5	< 0.00001

Table 2 Observed and predicted number of deaths by age and world age-standardized rates in Brazil

Males			Observed			Predicted
			1995-1999	2000-2004	2005-2009	2010-2014	2015-2019	2020-2024	2025-2029
Males
North	Age	0-39	99	126	156	200	243	277	296
		40-59	700	818	929	1119	1247	1478	1670
		≥ 60	1287	1597	2151	2792	3579	4332	5195
	Total		2086	2541	3236	4110	5069	6087	7160
	ASW		13.6	13.3	14.3	15.0	15.2	14.8	14.2
Northeast	Age	0-39	310	332	405	388	377	366	365
		40-59	1662	2041	2633	3226	3745	4135	4155
		≥ 60	4086	5624	7020	9070	11415	14018	16827
	Total		6058	7997	10058	12685	15537	18519	21347
	ASW		7.5	8.7	9.8	10.9	11.4	11.6	11.4
Midwest	Age	0-39	94	98	102	102	105	97	92
		40-59	684	707	753	779	813	941	1126
		≥ 60	1404	1705	1827	2039	2371	2784	3362
	Total		2182	2510	2682	2920	3289	3821	4580
	ASW		13.5	12.2	10.6	9.3	8.4	7.9	7.8
Southeast	Age	0-39	801	616	660	563	576	619	524
		40-59	6255	6404	6304	5748	5629	6052	7537
		≥ 60	16611	16790	14648	14316	15277	17650	21598
	Total		23667	23810	21612	20627	21482	24320	29658
	ASW		18.7	15.5	12.0	9.6	8.3	7.9	8.3
South	Age	0-39	250	235	241	188	137	120	108
		40-59	2245	2356	2403	2361	2410	2444	2649
		≥ 60	5515	6052	6062	6392	7041	8199	9745
	Total		8010	8643	8706	8941	9588	10762	12502
	ASW		18	16.2	13.6	11.5	10.3	9.7	9.5
Brazil	Age	0-39	1660	1403	1567	1796	2105	2502	2736
		40-59	13382	12196	12944	13909	15114	16962	19978
		≥ 60	32344	31439	34145	37297	41994	48255	56146
	Total		47386	45038	48656	53002	59213	67718	78861
	ASW		16.7	13.3	12.2	11.2	10.4	10.0	10.0
Females
North	Age	0-39	110	122	127	159	163	174	180
		40-59	324	375	460	557	659	790	909
		≥ 60	678	792	1040	1327	1739	2244	2870
	Total		1112	1289	1627	2044	2561	3208	3959
	ASW		7.1	6.4	6.8	6.9	7.0	7.1	7.0
Northeast	Age	0-39	274	314	380	460	554	527	524
		40-59	943	1114	1394	1773	2105	2490	2754
		≥ 60	2551	3152	4318	5723	7392	9309	11348
	Total		3768	4580	6092	7955	10051	12326	14626
	ASW		4	4	4.7	5.2	5.6	5.8	5.9
Midwest	Age	0-39	82	92	96	93	87	82	79
		40-59	277	333	382	442	547	634	717
		≥ 60	603	771	875	1028	1217	1515	1947
	Total		962	1196	1353	1562	1850	2232	2743
	ASW		5.8	5.3	4.7	4.3	4.0	3.9	3.9
Southeast	Age	0-39	576	652	675	674	685	627	562
		40-59	2413	2778	3008	2983	3140	3569	4168
		≥ 60	8058	9652	9619	9950	10667	12047	14398
	Total		11047	13082	13302	13606	14493	16243	19127
	ASW		6.8	6.4	5.4	4.6	4.2	4.1	4.2
South	Age	0-39	215	217	258	257	280	238	220
		40-59	984	949	1052	1150	1283	1546	1857
		≥ 60	3005	3106	3143	3268	3578	4111	4939
	Total		4204	4272	4453	4675	5142	5895	7016
	ASW		7.6	6.2	5.3	4.7	4.4	4.4	4.6
Brazil	Age	0-39	1313	1376	1511	1811	2107	2268	2515
		40-59	5540	5458	6274	7075	8168	9879	11902
		≥ 60	16991	17450	18982	20635	23267	27116	32678
	Total		23844	24284	26767	29522	33542	39263	47095
	ASW		6.9	5.6	5.2	4.8	4.7	4.7	4.9

ASW: Age-standardized rates.