Upper gastrointestinal bleeding etiology score for predicting variceal and non-variceal bleeding

Table 1 Univariate analysis of clinical parameters of patients with variceal and nonvariceal bleeding n (%)

Clinical parameter	Cause of UGIB		P
	Variceal (n = 47)	Nonvariceal (n = 214)
Age, mean ± SD (yr)	53 ± 15	61 ± 15	0.001
Male	41 (87)	151 (71)	0.030
Character of vomitus			< 0.001
Red	28 (60)	39 (18)
Coffee-ground or clear	19 (40)	175 (82)
Stool appearance			0.220
Red or maroon	6 (13)	14 (6)
Melena, brown or yellow	41 (87)	200 (93)
Dyspepsia or abdominal pain	3 (6)	45 (21)	0.032
NSAID, ASA, anticoagulant use	10 (21)	114 (53)	< 0.001
Previously diagnosed cirrhosis	17 (36)	41 (19)	< 0.001
History of variceal bleeding	13 (28)	8 (4)	< 0.001
History of non-variceal bleeding	0 (0)	21 (10)	0.018
Comorbid illness	13 (28)	132 (62)	< 0.001
Alcohol drinking	14 (30)	43 (20)	0.207
Hypotension	13 (28)	39 (18)	0.206
Tachycardia	26 (55)	93 (44)	0.188
Epigastric tenderness	2 (4)	25 (12)	0.212
Signs of chronic liver disease	30 (64)	32 (15)	< 0.001
Splenomegaly	15 (32)	14 (6)	< 0.001
Ascites	20 (43)	20 (9)	< 0.001
Hepatic encephalopathy	7 (15)	10 (5)	0.018
Character of NG aspirate			< 0.001
Red	28 (60)	38 (18)
Coffee-ground or clear	19 (40)	176 (82)

Table 2 Univariate analysis of laboratory findings of patients with variceal and nonvariceal UGIB n (%)

Laboratory findings	Causes of UGIB		P
	Variceal (n = 47)	Nonvariceal (n = 214)
Hemoglobin, (g/dL)	8.6 ± 2.2	8.5 ± 2.6	0.731
Hematocrit, (%)	25.8 ± 6.3	25.9 ± 7.3	0.965
WBC (× 103/ mm3)	12.2 ± 8.7	14.3 ± 13.5	0.319
Platelets (× 103/mm3)	165.0 ± 115.8	248.6 ± 129.9	< 0.001
< 100 × 103/mm3	16 (34)	23 (11)	< 0.001
BUN (mg/dL)	31 ± 18	44 ± 29	0.003
Creatinine (mg/dL)	1.3 ± 0.7	1.6 ± 1.8	0.190
Albumin (g/L)	2.8 ± 0.7	3.2 ± 0.7	0.001
Globulin (g/L)	3.7 ± 0.9	3.2 ± 0.8	< 0.001
Albumin/globulin ratio < 1	38 (81)	83 (45)	< 0.001
Total bilirubin (mg/dL)	4.1 ± 5.8	2.3 ± 5.5	0.054
SGOT (U/L)	133 ± 187	62 ± 107	0.001
> 2 × UNL	25 (53)	36 (20)	< 0.001
SGPT (U/L)	62 ± 76	36 ± 50	0.003
> 2 × UNL	8 (21)	21 (12)	0.359
SGOT/SGPT > 1	43 (92)	132 (75)	0.025
Alkaline phosphatase (U/L)	158 ± 112	115 ± 105	0.015
Prothrombin time (s)	21 ± 11	16 ± 8	0.002
> 12.5 s	44 (94)	58 (29)	< 0.001

UNL: Upper normal limit.

Table 3 Multivariate analysis showing independent factors associated with variceal bleeding

Parameter	Odds ratio	95% CI	P
Previous diagnosis of cirrhosis or signs of chronic liver disease	22.4	8.3-60.4	< 0.001
Red vomitus	4.6	1.8-11.9	0.020
Red NG aspirate	3.3	1.3-8.3	0.011

Table 4 Clinical information of patients with variceal and nonvariceal bleeding in the validation group (mean ± SD) n (%)

Clinical parameter	Cause of UGIB
	Variceal (n = 46)	Non-variceal (n = 149)
Age (yr)	64.51 ± 16	56.43 ± 14
Male	31 (67)	76 (51)
Previous diagnosis of cirrhosis or signs of chronic liver disease	35 (76)	12 (8)
Red vomitus	33 (72)	27 (18)
Red NG aspirate	23 (50)	21 (14)