Child-Pugh-Turcott versus Meld score for predicting survival in a retrospective cohort of black African cirrhotic patients

Table 1 Characteristics of the study population

Male (%)		120/172 (69.8)
Mean age (yr)		47.5 ± 13.54
Child-Pugh-Turcott score (%)
A		20 (11.6)
B		54 (31.4)
C		98 (57)
Serum creatine (mg/dL) (%)
≤ 1.5		132 (76.7)
> 1.5		40 (23.3)
MELD score (mean ± SD)		20.9 ± 10.87
MELD: Median (extreme)		19.5 [3-66]
Etiology (%)
Virus B		78 (45.3)
Virus C		17 (10)
Both alcohol and virus B or C		41 (23.8)
Unknown		36 (20.9)

Table 2 Relationship between mortality and parameters

Parameters	Mortality
	Univariate analysis		Multivariate analysis
	Death (%)	P	Hazard ratio (95% CI); P
Age (yr)1
≤ 48	23.90	0.023
> 48	40.00
Gender
Female	15.40	0.003
Male	38.30		1.8 [0.96 - 3.24]; P = 0.07
Child-Pugh-Turcott
A-B	21.60	0.016
C	38.80		3.3 [1.7 - 6.2]; P < 0.001
Serum creatine (mg/dL)
≤ 1.5	24.20	< 0.001
> 1.5	55.00		2.5 [1.4 - 4.3]; P = 0.001
MELD2
≤ 21	25.50	0.030
> 21	41.90		2.9 [1.63 - 5.21]; P < 0.001
Aetiology
Virus B or C	32.90	0.670
Both alcohol and virus3	40.20
Unknown	36.80

¹Median age;

²Through value of the MELD score significantly associated with mortality;

³Aetiology both virus and alcohol.

Table 3 Stepwise evaluation to find out the optimal cutoff point for both CPT and MELD score (%)

	Sensitivity	Specificity	Positive predictive value	Negative predictive value
CPT score
8	96.30	20.30	35.60	92.30
9	74.00	33.00	33.60	73.60
101	70.40	49.20	38.80	78.40
11	66.70	52.60	39.10	77.50
12	59.30	57.60	39.00	75.60
MELD score
19	55.60	52.50	34.90	72.10
20	55.60	57.60	37.50	73.90
212	48.20	69.50	41.20	74.60
22	44.00	69.50	40.00	73.20
23	44.40	76.30	46.20	75.00

¹Optimal cutoff point for CPT (Child-Pugh-Turcott) score;

²Optimal cutoff point for MELD (Model for End-stage Liver Disease) score.

Table 4 Comparison between The Area Under the Curve (AUC) of the CPT score and the MELD score in predicting survival at 3, 6 mo

Survival	Pronostic score	AUC (95% CI)	P
At 3 mo	CPT	0.72 (0.64-0.80)	0.68
	MELD	0.75 (0.62-0.88)
At 6 mo	CPT	0.64 (0.54-0.74)	0.67
	MELD	0.62 (0.49-0.74)
At 12 mo	CPT	0.69 (0.60-0.78)	0.38
	MELD	0.64 (0.53-0.75)

CPT: Child-Pugh-Turcott; MELD: Model for End-stage liver disease.