Evaluation of diagnostic findings and scoring systems in outcome prediction in acute pancreatitis

Table 1 Etiology and disease severity of the patients

Etiology	Disease severity
	Mild (n)	Svere (n)	Total (n, %)
Biliary	71	34	105 (52.7)
Idiopathic	37	14	51 (25.6)
Alcohol	14	-	14 (7)
Hyperlipidemia	4	5	9 (4.5)
Miscellaneous	10	10	20 (10)
Drug			7
Infection			5
Trauma			5
Hypercalcemia			2
Others			1

There was no significant correlation between the etiology and disease severity.

Table 2 Relations between clinical, radiological and laboratory findings and disease severity

Parameters	MAP	SAP	P
RR > 20	21.7%	48.1%	< 0.001
PR > 90	36%	65%	< 0.001
Necrosis ratio in CT > 30%	4.1%	27.1%	< 0.001
CRP (mg/L)	116 ± 8	171 ± 15	< 0.002
LDH (U/L)	570 ± 31	959 ± 104	< 0.05
AST (U/L) × N	4.7 ± 1. 3	4.75 ± 0. 7	< 0.05
Leukocytosis (× 103/mm3)	13 ± 0.4	16 ± 0.7	< 0.05

RR: Respiratory rate; PR: pulse rate; CRP: Serum C-reactive protein; LDH: lactate dehydrogenase; AST: Aspartate aminotransferase; CT: Contrast-enhanced abdominal computed tomography.

Table 3 Disease severity and CECT findings in 172 radiologi-cally examined patients n (%)

CECT findings	Disease severity
	MAP	SAP
Normal (non-diagnostic)	20 (16.4)	3 (6.3)
Edema in pancreas	62 (50.8)	18(37.50
Pancreatic necrosis < 30%	33 (27)	14 (27.1)
30% < Pancreatic necrosis > 50%	5 (4.1)	13 (27.1)b
Pancreatic necrosis > 50%	2(1.6)	0

^bP < 0.001 vs patients with mild AP. CECT: Contrast-enhanced abdominal computerized tomography; MAP: Mild acute pancreatitis; SAP: Severe acute pancreatitis.

Table 4 Factors related to morbidity and mortality

Factors	Morbidity			Mortality
	Cut-off level	Positive LR	AUC	Cut-off level	Positive LR	AUC
APACHE-II	8.5	5	0.72	8.5	5	0.88
BE	-5	3.36	0.69	-5	4.63	0.84
CT-INDEX	2	2.04	0.67	3	4.3	0.68
BUN (mg/dL)	22	2.23	0.70	23	2.85	0.70
CRP (mg/L)	142	2.03	0.72	160	2.03	0.82
LDH (U/L)	667	4.07	0.82	667	2.79	0.82

The AUC (Area Under Curve) value near to 1.00 means having high prediction rate of the morbidity and mortality. Positive LR (likelihood ratio) is also correlated with high prediction rate of the morbidity and mortality. CRP: Serum C-reactive protein; LDH: Lactate dehydrogenase; BE: Base excess.