Copyright
©2005 Baishideng Publishing Group Inc.
World J Gastroenterol. May 28, 2005; 11(20): 3099-3104
Published online May 28, 2005. doi: 10.3748/wjg.v11.i20.3099
Published online May 28, 2005. doi: 10.3748/wjg.v11.i20.3099
Table 1 Baseline characteristics of 102 patients with decompensated cirrhosis.
Age (yr) | 61 (27-89) |
Sex, males | 69 (68%) |
Cause of cirrhosis | |
HBV | 24 (23%) |
HCV | 17 (17%) |
Alcohol | 39 (38%) |
PBC/PSC | 7 (7%) |
Unknown | 15 (15%) |
Cause of admission | |
Tense ascites | 37 (36%) |
Encephalopathy | 17 (17%) |
Variceal bleeding | 16 (16%) |
Jaundice | 5 (5%) |
Fever | 11 (11%) |
Other | 16 (16%) |
SBP on admission | 9 (9%) |
First sign of decompensation | |
Ascites | 66 (65%) |
Variceal bleeding | 30 (29%) |
Encephalopathy | 5 (5%) |
Jaundice | 1 (1%) |
Hematocrit (%) | 33 (17-48) |
Hemoglobin (g/dL) | 11 (5-16) |
White blood count (×109/L) | 5.7 (1.2-23.9) |
Platelet count (×109/L) | 105 (19-394) |
Prothrombin time (s) | 16 (11-35) |
INR | 1.3 (0.9-3.3) |
Creatinine (mg/dL) | 1.1 (0.5-3.7) |
Bilirubin (mg/dL) | 2.6 (0.3-33.9) |
AST (IU/L) | 72 (20-610) |
ALT (IU/L) | 44 (11-433) |
Alkaline phosphatase (U/L) | 101 (42-487) |
GGT (U/L) | 70 (10-1 165) |
Albumin (g/dL) | 3.2 (1.9-4.3) |
Child class | |
A | 13 (13%) |
B | 42 (41%) |
C | 47 (46%) |
Child-Pugh score | 9 (5-15) |
Modified Child-Pugh score-I | 10 (5-19) |
Modified Child-Pugh score-II | 10 (5-17) |
MELD score | 12 (-10-45) |
Table 2 Comparisons of the areas under the ROC curve of Child-Pugh, modified Child-Pugh-I, modified Child-Pugh-II and MELD scores for 3-, 6-, 12-, and 24-mo survival.
Survival (mo) | Predictive scores | Area under ROC | P (χ2) |
3 | Child-Pugh | 0.73 | 0.19 |
Modified Child-Pugh-I | 0.76 | 0.58 | |
Modified Child-Pugh-II | 0.78 | 0.73 | |
MELD | 0.79 | ||
6 | Child-Pugh | 0.71 | 0.18 |
Modified Child-Pugh-I | 0.73 | 0.49 | |
Modified Child-Pugh-II | 0.76 | 0.85 | |
MELD | 0.77 | ||
12 | Child-Pugh | 0.68 | 0.09 |
Modified Child-Pugh-I | 0.73 | 0.38 | |
Modified Child-Pugh-II | 0.74 | 0.51 | |
MELD | 0.78 | ||
24 | Child-Pugh | 0.7 | 0.27 |
Modified Child-Pugh-I | 0.75 | 0.48 | |
Modified Child-Pugh-II | 0.76 | 0.64 | |
MELD | 0.79 |
Table 3 Association of baseline characteristics with survival in 102 patients with decompensated cirrhosis (results from univariate Cox proportional hazards models).
Patient characteristic | Hazard ratio | 95%CI | P |
Age (per yr) | 0.99 | 0.90-1.03 | 0.72 |
Sex (male) | 0.68 | 0.27-1.72 | 0.92 |
Cause of cirrhosis (unknown) | |||
HBV | 0.41 | 0.12-1.58 | 0.21 |
HCV | 1.21 | 0.35-4.17 | 0.77 |
Alcohol | 0.72 | 0.27-1.93 | 0.51 |
PBC/PSC | 0.97 | 0.47-3.85 | 0.68 |
SBP on admission | 4.25 | 1.41-12.84 | 0.01 |
White blood count (×109/L) | 1.12 | 0.43-3.68 | 0.90 |
Platelet count (×109/L) | 1.06 | 0.52-2.15 | 0.87 |
Prothrombin time (s) | 2.48 | 0.50-12.19 | 0.26 |
INR | 4.22 | 0.98-18.19 | 0.052 |
Creatinine (mg/dL) | 4.62 | 1.76-12.13 | 0.012 |
Bilirubin (mg/dL) | 2.25 | 1.5-3.38 | <0.001 |
AST (IU/L) | 1.95 | 1.12-3.4 | 0.018 |
ALT (IU/L) | 1.70 | 1.03-2.8 | 0.039 |
Alkaline phosphatase (U/L) | 0.83 | 0.38-1.86 | 0.66 |
GGT (U/L) | 1.64 | 1.09-2.46 | 0.019 |
Albumin (g/dL) | 0.53 | 0.07-3.84 | 0.53 |
Child class (A) | |||
B | 2.11 | 0.46-9.77 | 0.34 |
C | 3.71 | 0.78-17.61 | 0.1 |
Table 4 Crude and adjusted for GGT hazard ratio (HR) of death and 95%CI for the four scoring systems.
Scoring system | Unadjusted | Adjusted | ||
HR (95%CI) | c-statisticsHR | (95%CI) | c-statistics | |
Child-Pugh score | 1.23 (1.04-1.45) | 0.65 | 1.38 (1.14-1.68) | 0.77 |
Modified Child-Pugh-I score | 1.21 (1.09-1.36) | 0.69 | 1.30 (1.13-1.50) | 0.79 |
Modified Child-Pugh-II score | 1.30 (1.13-1.48) | 0.70 | 1.38 (1.18-1.62) | 0.78 |
MELD score | 1.11 (1.06-1.15) | 0.73 | 1.10 (1.06-1.15) | 0.81 |
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Citation: Papatheodoridis GV, Cholongitas E, Dimitriadou E, Touloumi G, Sevastianos V, Archimandritis AJ. MELD
vs Child-Pugh and creatinine-modified Child-Pugh score for predicting survival in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. World J Gastroenterol 2005; 11(20): 3099-3104 - URL: https://www.wjgnet.com/1007-9327/full/v11/i20/3099.htm
- DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.3748/wjg.v11.i20.3099