Baseline hepatitis B surface antigen and cirrhosis predict extended interferon therapy in chronic hepatitis B: A retrospective study

Figure 1 Flow diagram of patients enrolled in this study. HBsAg: Hepatitis B surface antigen; IFN: Interferon.

Figure 2 Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression-based variable selection. A: Characteristics of variable coefficient changes; B: Selection process for the optimal value of parameter λ in the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression model via cross-validation. At λ = 0.0308 (Log λ = -3.4816), LASSO regression identified four significant variables: Age, baseline hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg), 12-week HBsAg, and cirrhosis.

Figure 3 A nomogram for the risk of interferon therapy beyond 48 weeks in patients with chronic hepatitis B. HBsAg: Hepatitis B surface antigen; IFN: Interferon.

Figure 4 Receiver operating characteristic curve and calibration curve of the training cohort. The area under the curve was 0.83 (95% confidence interval: 0.76-0.91), with a sensitivity of 0.88 and specificity of 0.69. The result of Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test for the training cohort was χ² = 16.30, P = 0.04. AUC: Area under the curve; CI: Confidence interval.

Figure 5 Receiver operating characteristic curve and calibration curve of the validation cohort. The area under the curve for the external validation cohort was 0.81 (95% confidence interval: 0.71-0.90), and the goodness-of-fit test resulted in χ² = 8.41 and P = 0.39. AUC: Area under the curve; CI: Confidence interval.

Figure 6 Subgroup analyses stratified by gender, age, baseline hepatitis B envelope antigen, baseline hepatitis B virus DNA, and baseline alanine aminotransferase in the training and validation cohorts. The relationships of both baseline hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) and liver cirrhosis with extended course interferon (≥ 48 weeks) were consistent with the primary outcome in most subgroups. Furthermore, no significant interactions were observed concerning the association with extended course interferon (≥ 48 weeks). A and B: Baseline HBsAg: Training cohort (A); Validation cohort (B); C and D: Cirrhosis: Training cohort (C); Validation cohort (D). OR: Odds ratio; CI: Confidence interval; HBeAg: Hepatitis B envelope antigen; HBV: Hepatitis B virus; ALT: Alanine aminotransferase.