Non-invasive prediction model for high-risk esophageal varices in the Chinese population

Figure 1 Area under the curve of various models in predicting high-risk esophageal varices of patients. A: Modeling group; B: External validation group. The area under the curve of the new model in predicting high-risk esophageal varices of patients was 0.865 in the modeling group, which was higher than that of liver stiffness-spleen diameter to platelet ratio score, variceal risk index, aspartate transaminase to platelet ratio index, and aspartate transaminase /alanine aminotransferase ratio; and it was 0.879 in the external validation group. ROC: Receiver operating characteristic.

Figure 2 Calibration scatter plot of data of patients. A: Modeling group; B: External validation group. In predicting patients in the modeling group and external validation group, the scattered points fluctuated around the reference line without significant deviations.

Figure 3 Adjusted decision curve analysis of data of patients. A: Modeling group; B: External validation group. The black line indicates that in extreme cases, the new model predicted that there were no high-risk esophageal varices in all patients with viral cirrhosis, and the clinical net benefit was 0. The gray curve indicates that in extreme cases, the new model predicts there are high-risk esophageal varices in all patients with viral cirrhosis, the clinical net benefit is the negative slope. The red line indicates that the new model has a clinical net benefit. The red line is higher than the black and gray lines, indicating that patients in the modeling group can benefit from the new model.