Risk factors and prediction score for chronic pancreatitis: A nationwide population-based cohort study

Figure 1 Flowchart of patient selection process.

Figure 2 Area under the curve and 95% confidence interval at different time endpoints for risk score in derivation and validation cohorts. Data are presented as area under the curve (95% confidence interval). A: Discrimination of risk score 1 and risk score 2 for predicting 3-year chronic pancreatitis incidence in derivation cohort. B: Discrimination of risk score 1 and risk score 2 for predicting 5-year chronic pancreatitis incidence in derivation cohort. C: Discrimination of risk score 1 and risk score 2 for predicting overall chronic pancreatitis incidence in derivation cohort. D: Discrimination of risk score 1 and risk score 2 for predicting 3-year chronic pancreatitis incidence in validation cohort. E: Discrimination of risk score 1 and risk score 2 for predicting 5-year chronic pancreatitis incidence in validation cohort. F: Discrimination of risk score 1 and risk score 2 for predicting overall chronic pancreatitis incidence in validation cohort. AUC: Area under the curve; ROC: Receiver operating characteristic.

Figure 3 Risk category strata and associated chronic pancreatitis incidence rates in derivation and validation cohorts. A: Risk category strata and associated chronic pancreatitis incidence rates in derivation and validation cohorts, risk score 1. B: Risk category strata and associated chronic pancreatitis incidence rates in derivation and validation cohorts, risk score 2.

Figure 4 One minus Kaplan-Meier curve for chronic pancreatitis incidence for risk category in derivation and validation cohorts. A: One minus Kaplan-Meier curve for chronic pancreatitis for risk category based on risk score 1 in derivation cohort. B: One minus Kaplan-Meier curve for chronic pancreatitis for risk category based on risk score 2 in derivation cohort. C: One minus Kaplan-Meier curve for chronic pancreatitis for risk category based on risk score 1 in validation cohort. D: One minus Kaplan-Meier curve for chronic pancreatitis for risk category based on risk score 2 in validation cohort.