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Yang F, Windsor JA, Fu DL. Optimizing prediction models for pancreatic fistula after pancreatectomy: Current status and future perspectives. World J Gastroenterol 2024; 30:1329-1345. [PMID: 38596504 PMCID: PMC11000089 DOI: 10.3748/wjg.v30.i10.1329] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/05/2023] [Revised: 01/15/2024] [Accepted: 02/25/2024] [Indexed: 03/14/2024] Open
Abstract
Postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) is a frequent complication after pancreatectomy, leading to increased morbidity and mortality. Optimizing prediction models for POPF has emerged as a critical focus in surgical research. Although over sixty models following pancreaticoduodenectomy, predominantly reliant on a variety of clinical, surgical, and radiological parameters, have been documented, their predictive accuracy remains suboptimal in external validation and across diverse populations. As models after distal pancreatectomy continue to be progressively reported, their external validation is eagerly anticipated. Conversely, POPF prediction after central pancreatectomy is in its nascent stage, warranting urgent need for further development and validation. The potential of machine learning and big data analytics offers promising prospects for enhancing the accuracy of prediction models by incorporating an extensive array of variables and optimizing algorithm performance. Moreover, there is potential for the development of personalized prediction models based on patient- or pancreas-specific factors and postoperative serum or drain fluid biomarkers to improve accuracy in identifying individuals at risk of POPF. In the future, prospective multicenter studies and the integration of novel imaging technologies, such as artificial intelligence-based radiomics, may further refine predictive models. Addressing these issues is anticipated to revolutionize risk stratification, clinical decision-making, and postoperative management in patients undergoing pancreatectomy.
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Affiliation(s)
- Feng Yang
- Department of Pancreatic Surgery, Huashan Hospital, Shanghai Medical College, Fudan University, Shanghai 200040, China
| | - John A Windsor
- Surgical and Translational Research Centre, Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, University of Auckland, Auckland 1142, New Zealand
| | - De-Liang Fu
- Department of Pancreatic Surgery, Huashan Hospital, Shanghai Medical College, Fudan University, Shanghai 200040, China
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Song Y, Zhang S. Serum Creatinine and Amylase in Drain to Predict Pancreatic Fistula Risk after Pancreatoduodenectomy. Dig Surg 2023; 40:205-215. [PMID: 37866358 PMCID: PMC10716868 DOI: 10.1159/000533869] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/27/2023] [Accepted: 08/26/2023] [Indexed: 10/24/2023]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION The identification of patients with low risk of clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) and postoperative hemorrhage (PPH) can guide drain removal after pancreatoduodenectomy (PD). However, drain fluid amylase (DFA) ≤5,000 U/L on postoperative day (POD) 1 does not robustly predict the absence of CR-POPF. METHODS Consecutive patients undergoing PD at Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center between July 2018 and October 2021 were analyzed. Recursive partitioning analysis was used to classify patients into groups with different risks of CR-POPF and PPH. RESULTS Among 288 consecutive patients included, 99 patients (34.38%) developed CR-POPF (86 grade B and 13 grade C). Patients with CR-POPF had increased levels of preoperative creatinine (CRE) and POD1 CRE. The combination of POD1 CRE (>104 μmol/L or not) and POD1 DFA (>5,000 U/L or not) stratified patients into subgroups with the maximum difference in CR-POPF risk. The CR-POPF rates were 17.82% (36/202) in group A (POD1 CRE ≤104 μmol/L and POD1 DFA ≤5,000 U/L), 53.33% (8/15) in group B (POD1 CRE >104 μmol/L and POD1 DFA ≤5,000 U/L), and 77.46% (55/71) in group C (POD1 DFA >5,000 U/L). The PPH rates were 1.98% (4/202), 20.00% (3/15), and 19.72% (14/71) in groups A, B, and C, respectively. CONCLUSION Patients with POD1 DFA ≤5,000 U/L and POD1 CRE >104 μmol/L have a high risk of CR-POPF and may not benefit from early drain removal. Patients with POD1 DFA ≤5,000 U/L and POD1 CRE ≤104 μmol/L have low risk of CR-POPF and PPH.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yunda Song
- State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Collaborative Innovation Center for Cancer Medicine, Guangzhou, China
- Department of Pancreatobiliary Surgery, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, Guangzhou, China
| | - Subo Zhang
- State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Collaborative Innovation Center for Cancer Medicine, Guangzhou, China
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Alhulaili ZM, Linnemann RJ, Dascau L, Pleijhuis RG, Klaase JM. A Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis analysis to evaluate the quality of reporting of postoperative pancreatic fistula prediction models after pancreatoduodenectomy: A systematic review. Surgery 2023; 174:684-691. [PMID: 37296054 DOI: 10.1016/j.surg.2023.04.058] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/02/2022] [Revised: 03/06/2023] [Accepted: 04/27/2023] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Postoperative pancreatic fistula is a frequent and potentially lethal complication after pancreatoduodenectomy. Several models have been developed to predict postoperative pancreatic fistula risk. This study was performed to evaluate the quality of reporting of postoperative pancreatic fistula prediction models after pancreatoduodenectomy using the Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) checklist that provides guidelines on reporting prediction models to enhance transparency and to help in the decision-making regarding the implementation of the appropriate risk models into clinical practice. METHODS Studies that described prediction models to predict postoperative pancreatic fistula after pancreatoduodenectomy were searched according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. The TRIPOD checklist was used to evaluate the adherence rate. The area under the curve and other performance measures were extracted if reported. A quadrant matrix chart is created to plot the area under the curve against TRIPOD adherence rate to find models with a combination of above-average TRIPOD adherence and area under the curve. RESULTS In total, 52 predictive models were included (23 development, 15 external validation, 4 incremental value, and 10 development and external validation). No risk model achieved 100% adherence to the TRIPOD. The mean adherence rate was 65%. Most authors failed to report on missing data and actions to blind assessment of predictors. Thirteen models had an above-average performance for TRIPOD checklist adherence and area under the curve. CONCLUSION Although the average TRIPOD adherence rate for postoperative pancreatic fistula models after pancreatoduodenectomy was 65%, higher compared to other published models, it does not meet TRIPOD standards for transparency. This study identified 13 models that performed above average in TRIPOD adherence and area under the curve, which could be the appropriate models to be used in clinical practice.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zahraa M Alhulaili
- Department of Hepato-Pancreato-Biliary Surgery and Liver Transplantation, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, the Netherlands
| | - Ralph J Linnemann
- Department of Hepato-Pancreato-Biliary Surgery and Liver Transplantation, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, the Netherlands
| | - Larisa Dascau
- Department of Surgery, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, the Netherlands
| | - Rick G Pleijhuis
- Department of Internal Medicine, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, the Netherlands
| | - Joost M Klaase
- Department of Hepato-Pancreato-Biliary Surgery and Liver Transplantation, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, the Netherlands.
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Wu Y, Peng B, Liu J, Yin X, Tan Z, Liu R, Hong D, Zhao W, Wu H, Chen R, Li D, Huang H, Miao Y, Liu Y, Liang T, Wang W, Yuan J, Li S, Zhang H, Wang M, Qin R. Textbook outcome as a composite outcome measure in laparoscopic pancreaticoduodenectomy: a multicenter retrospective cohort study. Int J Surg 2023; 109:374-382. [PMID: 36912568 PMCID: PMC10389643 DOI: 10.1097/js9.0000000000000303] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/21/2022] [Accepted: 01/26/2023] [Indexed: 03/14/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Textbook outcome (TO) is a composite outcome measure for surgical quality assessment. The aim of this study was to assess TO following laparoscopic pancreaticoduodenectomy (LPD), identify factors independently associated with achieving TO, and analyze hospital variations regarding the TO after case-mix adjustment. METHODS This multicenter cohort study retrospectively analyzed 1029 consecutive patients undergoing LPD at 16 high-volume pancreatic centers in China from January 2010 to August 2016. The percentage of patients achieving TO was calculated. Preoperative and intraoperative variables were compared between the TO and non-TO groups. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to identify factors independently associated with achieving TO. Hospital variations regarding the TO were analyzed by the observed/expected TO ratio after case-mix adjustment. Differences in expected TO rates between different types of hospitals were analyzed using the one-way analysis of variance test. RESULTS TO was achieved in 68.9% ( n =709) of 1029 patients undergoing LPD, ranging from 46.4 to 85.0% between different hospitals. Dilated pancreatic duct (>3 mm) was associated with the increased probability of achieving TO [odds ratio (OR): 1.564; P =0.001], whereas advanced age (≥75 years) and concomitant cardiovascular disease were associated with a lower likelihood of achieving TO (OR: 0.545; P =0.037 and OR: 0.614; P =0.006, respectively). The observed/expected TO ratio varied from 0.62 to 1.22 after case-mix adjustment between different hospitals, but no significant hospital variations were observed. Hospital volume, the surgeon's experience with open pancreaticoduodenectomy and minimally invasive surgery, and surpassing the LPD learning curve were significantly correlated with expected TO rates. CONCLUSION TO was achieved by less than 70% of patients following LPD. Dilated pancreatic ducts, advanced age, and concomitant cardiovascular disease were independently associated with achieving TO. No significant hospital variations were observed after case-mix adjustment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yi Wu
- Department of Biliary-Pancreatic Surgery, Affiliated Tongji Hospital
| | - Bing Peng
- Department of Pancreatic Surgery, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan
| | - Jianhua Liu
- Department of Hepato-Pancreato-Biliary Surgery, The Second Hospital of Hebei Medical University, Shijiazhuang, Hebei
| | - Xinmin Yin
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, Hunan Provincial People’s Hospital, The First Affiliated Hospital of Hunan Normal University, Changsha, Hunan
| | - Zhijian Tan
- Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Guangdong Provincial Hospital of Chinese Medicine, Guangzhou, Guangdong
| | - Rong Liu
- The Second Department of Hepato-Pancreato-Biliary Surgery, Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing
| | - Defei Hong
- Division of General Surgery, Sir Run Run Shaw Hospital (SRRSH), Affiliated with the Zhejiang University School of Medicine
| | - Wenxing Zhao
- Department of General Surgery, The Affiliated Hospital of Xuzhou Medical University, Xuzhou, Jiangsu
| | - Heshui Wu
- Department of Pancreatic Surgery, Union Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, Hubei
| | - Rufu Chen
- Department of Pancreaticobiliary Surgery, Sun Yat-sen Memorial Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou
| | - Dewei Li
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing
| | - Heguang Huang
- Department of General Surgery, Fujian Medical University Union Hospital, Fuzhou, Fujian
| | - Yi Miao
- Pancreas Center, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing
- Pancreas Center, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing
| | - Yahui Liu
- Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, The First Hospital of Jilin University, Changchun, Jilin
| | - Tingbo Liang
- Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, Zhejiang
| | - Wei Wang
- Department of Biliopancreatic Surgery, Huadong Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Jingxiong Yuan
- Department of Biliary-Pancreatic Surgery, Affiliated Tongji Hospital
| | - Shizhen Li
- Department of Biliary-Pancreatic Surgery, Affiliated Tongji Hospital
| | - Hang Zhang
- Department of Biliary-Pancreatic Surgery, Affiliated Tongji Hospital
| | - Min Wang
- Department of Biliary-Pancreatic Surgery, Affiliated Tongji Hospital
| | - Renyi Qin
- Department of Biliary-Pancreatic Surgery, Affiliated Tongji Hospital
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Zhang B, Yuan Q, Li S, Xu Z, Chen X, Li L, Shang D. Risk factors of clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy: A systematic review and meta-analysis. Medicine (Baltimore) 2022; 101:e29757. [PMID: 35776984 PMCID: PMC9239615 DOI: 10.1097/md.0000000000029757] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/05/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) is a common and troublesome complication after pancreatoduodenectomy (PD). We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify the risk factors of CR-POPF after PD. METHODS We searched PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane Library databases for studies related to risk factors of CR-POPF after PD. Odds ratios (ORs) with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were extracted from the included studies, then a meta-analysis was conducted. If necessary, sensitivity analysis would be performed by changing the effect model or excluding 1 study at a time. Publication bias was assessed by funnel plot and Begg test and Egger test. RESULTS A total of 27 studies with 24,740 patients were included, and CR-POPF occurred in 3843 patients (incidence = 17%, 95% CI: 16%-19%). Male (OR = 1.56, 95% CI: 1.42-1.70), body mass index >25 kg/m2 (OR = 1.98, 95% CI: 1.23-3.18), pancreatic duct diameter <3 mm (OR = 1.87, 95% CI: 1.66-2.12), soft pancreatic texture (OR = 3.49, 95% CI: 2.61-4.67), and blood transfusion (OR = 3.10, 95% CI: 2.01-4.77) can significantly increase the risk of CR-POPF. Pancreatic adenocarcinoma (OR = 0.54, 95% CI: 0.47-0.61), vascular resection (OR = 0.57, 95% CI: 0.39-0.83), and preoperative chemoradiotherapy (OR = 0.68, 95% CI: 0.57-0.81) can significantly decrease the factor of CR-POPF. Diabetes mellitus was not statistically associated with CR-POPF (OR = 0.66, 95% CI: 0.40-1.08). However, the analysis of body mass index, pancreatic texture, and diabetes mellitus had a high heterogeneity, then sensitivity analysis was performed, and the result after sensitivity analysis showed diabetes mellitus can significantly decrease the risk of CR-POPF. There was no significant publication bias in this meta-analysis. CONCLUSIONS The current review assessed the effects of different factors on CR-POPF. This can provide a basis for the prevention and management of CR-POPF. Effective interventions targeting the above risk factors should be investigated in future studies for decreasing the occurrence of CR-POPF.
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Affiliation(s)
- Biao Zhang
- Department of General Surgery, Clinical Laboratory of Integrative Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Dalian Medical University, Dalian, Liaoning, China
- Institute of Integrative Medicine, Dalian Medical University, Dalian, Liaoning, China
| | - Qihang Yuan
- Department of General Surgery, Clinical Laboratory of Integrative Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Dalian Medical University, Dalian, Liaoning, China
- Institute of Integrative Medicine, Dalian Medical University, Dalian, Liaoning, China
| | - Shuang Li
- Department of General Surgery, Clinical Laboratory of Integrative Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Dalian Medical University, Dalian, Liaoning, China
- Institute of Integrative Medicine, Dalian Medical University, Dalian, Liaoning, China
| | - Zhaohui Xu
- Department of Hernia and Colorectal Surgery, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Dalian Medical University, Dalian, Liaoning, China
| | - Xu Chen
- Department of General Surgery, Clinical Laboratory of Integrative Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Dalian Medical University, Dalian, Liaoning, China
- Institute of Integrative Medicine, Dalian Medical University, Dalian, Liaoning, China
| | - Lunxu Li
- Department of General Surgery, Clinical Laboratory of Integrative Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Dalian Medical University, Dalian, Liaoning, China
- Institute of Integrative Medicine, Dalian Medical University, Dalian, Liaoning, China
| | - Dong Shang
- Department of General Surgery, Clinical Laboratory of Integrative Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Dalian Medical University, Dalian, Liaoning, China
- Institute of Integrative Medicine, Dalian Medical University, Dalian, Liaoning, China
- *Correspondence: Dong Shang, Department of General Surgery, Clinical Laboratory of Integrative Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Dalian Medical University, 222 Zhongshan Road, Xigang District, Dalian 116011, Liaoning, China ()
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Zhang Z, Chen L, Xu P, Hong Y. Predictive analytics with ensemble modeling in laparoscopic surgery: A technical note. LAPAROSCOPIC, ENDOSCOPIC AND ROBOTIC SURGERY 2022; 5:25-34. [DOI: 10.1016/j.lers.2021.12.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 58] [Impact Index Per Article: 19.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/25/2022] Open
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Zhao D, Chen S, Liu Y, Xu Z, Shen H, Zhang S, Li Y, Zhang H, Zou C, Ma X. Blood Urea Nitrogen-to-Albumin Ratio in Predicting Long-Term Mortality in Patients Following Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting: An Analysis of the MIMIC-III Database. Front Surg 2022; 9:801708. [PMID: 35252328 PMCID: PMC8894887 DOI: 10.3389/fsurg.2022.801708] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/25/2021] [Accepted: 01/18/2022] [Indexed: 01/28/2023] Open
Abstract
Background This study examined the role of blood urea nitrogen-to-albumin ratio (BAR) in predicting long-term mortality in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). Methods In this retrospective cohort study, patients undergoing CABG were enrolled from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC III) database. Patients were divided into the three groups according to the optimal cutoff values of BAR determined by X-tile software. The survival curve was constructed by the Kaplan–Meier method and multivariate Cox regression analysis was performed to explore the independent prognostic factors of 1- and 4-year mortality after CABG. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and the areas under the ROC curves (AUCs) were calculated to estimate the accuracy of BAR in predicting the outcomes. Subgroup analyses were also carried out. Results A total of 1,462 patients at 4-year follow-up were included, of which 933, 293, and 236 patients were categorized into the group 1 (≤ 6.45 mg/g), group 2 (>6.45 and ≤ 10.23 mg/g), and group 3 (>10.23 mg/g), respectively. Non-survivors showed an increased level of BAR at both 1- (p < 0.001) and 4-year (p < 0.001) follow-up compared with the survivors. The patients with a higher BAR had a higher risk of 1- and 4-year mortality following CABG (33.05 vs. 14.33 vs. 5.14%, p < 0.001 and 52.97 vs. 30.72 vs. 13.08%, p < 0.001, respectively). Cox proportional hazards regression model suggested a higher BAR as an independent risk factor of 1-year mortality (HR 3.904; 95% CI 2.559–5.956; P < 0.001) and 4-year mortality (HR 2.895; 95% CI 2.138–3.921; P < 0.001) after adjusting for confounders. Besides, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves showed the better predictive ability of BAR compared to other grading scores at both 1- (0.7383, 95% CI: 0.6966–0.7800) and 4-year mortality (0.7189, 95% CI: 0.6872–0.7506). Subgroup analysis demonstrated no heterogeneous results of BAR in 4-year mortality in particular groups of patient. Conclusion This report provided evidence of an independent association between 1- and 4-year mortality after CABG and BAR. A higher BAR was associated with a higher risk of long-term mortality and could serve as a prognostic predictor in patients following CABG.
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Affiliation(s)
- Diming Zhao
- Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, Shandong Provincial Hospital, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Shanghao Chen
- Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, Shandong Provincial Hospital, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Yilin Liu
- Department of Ophthalmology, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong Provincial Hospital, Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Zhenqiang Xu
- Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, Shandong Provincial Hospital Affiliated to Shandong First Medical University, Jinan, China
- Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, Shandong Provincial Hospital Affiliated to Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Hechen Shen
- Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, Shandong Provincial Hospital, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Shijie Zhang
- Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, Shandong Provincial Hospital, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Yi Li
- Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, Shandong Provincial Hospital, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Haizhou Zhang
- Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, Shandong Provincial Hospital Affiliated to Shandong First Medical University, Jinan, China
- Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, Shandong Provincial Hospital Affiliated to Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Chengwei Zou
- Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, Shandong Provincial Hospital Affiliated to Shandong First Medical University, Jinan, China
- Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, Shandong Provincial Hospital Affiliated to Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Xiaochun Ma
- Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, Shandong Provincial Hospital, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China
- Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, Shandong Provincial Hospital Affiliated to Shandong First Medical University, Jinan, China
- *Correspondence: Xiaochun Ma
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Li B, Pu N, Chen Q, Mei Y, Wang D, Jin D, Wu W, Zhang L, Lou W. Comprehensive Diagnostic Nomogram for Predicting Clinically Relevant Postoperative Pancreatic Fistula After Pancreatoduodenectomy. Front Oncol 2021; 11:717087. [PMID: 34277458 PMCID: PMC8281206 DOI: 10.3389/fonc.2021.717087] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/30/2021] [Accepted: 06/17/2021] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) remains a severe and challenging complication of pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD). This study aimed to establish a novel postoperative nomogram-based diagnostic model for the early detection of CR-POPF in patients subjected to PD. METHODS Consecutive patients who underwent PD in Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University from December 2018 to October 2020 were retrospectively enrolled. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify independent risk factors for CR-POPF. Then, a novel predictive nomogram was established accordingly. RESULTS Among the consecutive 176 patients who underwent PD, 37 (21.1%) patients developed CR-POPF. Through univariate and multivariate analyses, the drain amylase (P = 0.002), serum creatinine (P = 0.009), and serum C reactive protein (P = 0.045) at postoperative day 1 (POD1) as well as the neutrophil count (P = 0.025) and temperature (P = 0.025) at POD3 were identified as independent risk factors for CR-POPF. Based on this, a novel predictive nomogram containing these factors was constructed to predict the probability of CR-POPF after PD. The formulated nomogram showed better performance to detect CR-POPF after PD with a sensitivity of 0.784, specificity of 0.770, positive predictive value of 0.475, and negative predictive value of 0.930 when compared to other predictors. In addition, the predictive value of the nomogram was assessed by a concordance index of 0.814 (95% CI, 0.736-0.892), which was significantly higher than indicators alone. This was further validated and depicted by decision curve analysis and clinical impact curve. CONCLUSION This study established a diagnostic nomogram of postoperative objective parameters that can predict the development of CR-POPF after PD with a good discriminative ability and predictive accuracy.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bo Li
- Department of Pancreatic Surgery, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
- Cancer Center, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
- Department of General Surgery, Shangluo Central Hospital, Shaanxi, China
| | - Ning Pu
- Department of Pancreatic Surgery, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
- Cancer Center, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Qiangda Chen
- Department of Pancreatic Surgery, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
- Cancer Center, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Yong Mei
- Department of General Surgery, Shangluo Central Hospital, Shaanxi, China
| | - Dansong Wang
- Department of Pancreatic Surgery, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
- Cancer Center, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Dayong Jin
- Department of Pancreatic Surgery, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
- Cancer Center, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Wenchuan Wu
- Department of Pancreatic Surgery, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
- Cancer Center, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Lei Zhang
- Department of Pancreatic Surgery, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
- Cancer Center, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Wenhui Lou
- Department of Pancreatic Surgery, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
- Cancer Center, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
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