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Wei S, Dong H, Yao W, Chen Y, Wang X, Ji W, Zhang Y, Guo S. Machine learning models for predicting in-hospital mortality from acute pancreatitis in intensive care unit. BMC Med Inform Decis Mak 2025; 25:198. [PMID: 40426158 PMCID: PMC12117972 DOI: 10.1186/s12911-025-03033-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/11/2024] [Accepted: 05/14/2025] [Indexed: 05/29/2025] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Acute pancreatitis (AP) represents a critical medical condition where timely and precise prediction of in-hospital mortality is crucial for guiding optimal clinical management. This study focuses on the development of advanced machine learning (ML) models to accurately predict in-hospital mortality among AP patients admitted to intensive care unit (ICU). METHOD Our study utilized data from three distinct sources: the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC-III), MIMIC-IV databases, and Beijing Chaoyang Hospital. We systematically developed and evaluated 11 distinct machine learning (ML) models, employing a comprehensive set of evaluation metrics to assess model performance, including the area under the curve (AUC). To enhance interpretability and identify key predictive features, we implemented Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) analysis for the top-performing model. Furthermore, we developed a streamlined version of the model through strategic feature reduction, followed by rigorous hyperparameter optimization (HPO) to maximize predictive performance. To facilitate clinical implementation, we designed and deployed an intuitive web-based calculator, enabling convenient access and practical application of our optimized predictive model. RESULT The study analyzed 1802 AP patients, with 266 (14.8%) experiencing in-hospital mortality. A set of 27 features was utilized to construct various models, and among them, CatBoost demonstrated the highest performance in both the validation and test sets. To create a more concise model, we selected the top 13 features. After HPO, the AUC in the test set reached 0.835 (95% CI: 0.793-0.872), the AUC in the external validation from Beijing Chaoyang hospital was 0.782 (95% CI: 0.699-0.860). CONCLUSION ML models have shown promising reliability in predicting in-hospital mortality among patients with AP in the ICU. Among these models, the CatBoost model exhibits superior predictive performance, providing valuable assistance to clinical practitioners in identifying high-risk patients and facilitating early interventions to enhance prognosis. The development of a compact model and a web-based calculator further enhances the convenience of using these models in clinical practice.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shuxing Wei
- Emergency Medicine Clinical Research Center, Beijing Key Laboratory of Cardiopulmonary Cerebral Resuscitation, Beijing Chaoyang Hospital, Affiliated to Capital Medical University, Beijing, 100020, China
| | - Hongmeng Dong
- Emergency Medicine Clinical Research Center, Beijing Key Laboratory of Cardiopulmonary Cerebral Resuscitation, Beijing Chaoyang Hospital, Affiliated to Capital Medical University, Beijing, 100020, China
| | - Weidong Yao
- Department of Anesthesiology, Second Affiliated Hospital of Shandong University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Jinan, China
| | - Ying Chen
- Emergency Medicine Clinical Research Center, Beijing Key Laboratory of Cardiopulmonary Cerebral Resuscitation, Beijing Chaoyang Hospital, Affiliated to Capital Medical University, Beijing, 100020, China
| | - Xiya Wang
- Emergency Medicine Clinical Research Center, Beijing Key Laboratory of Cardiopulmonary Cerebral Resuscitation, Beijing Chaoyang Hospital, Affiliated to Capital Medical University, Beijing, 100020, China
| | - Wenqing Ji
- Emergency Medicine Clinical Research Center, Beijing Key Laboratory of Cardiopulmonary Cerebral Resuscitation, Beijing Chaoyang Hospital, Affiliated to Capital Medical University, Beijing, 100020, China
| | - Yongsheng Zhang
- Department of Health Management, Shandong Engineering Laboratory of Health Management, Institute of Health Management, the First Affiliated Hospital of Shandong First Medical University & Shandong Provincial Qianfoshan Hospital, Jinan, China.
| | - Shubin Guo
- Emergency Medicine Clinical Research Center, Beijing Key Laboratory of Cardiopulmonary Cerebral Resuscitation, Beijing Chaoyang Hospital, Affiliated to Capital Medical University, Beijing, 100020, China.
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Chen Y, Liu J, Ge Q, Wang M, Zhou J. A risk nomogram for 30-day mortality in Chinese patients with acute pancreatitis using LASSO-logistic regression. Sci Rep 2025; 15:17097. [PMID: 40379755 PMCID: PMC12084589 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-025-02055-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/04/2025] [Accepted: 05/12/2025] [Indexed: 05/19/2025] Open
Abstract
This study proposed to explore the 30-day mortality risk factors in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) and construct a prognosis nomogram based on the Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression. A retrospective study on 965 adult AP patients started from January 2017 and December 2019 was conducted. Feature selection is carried out by using LASSO regression, and the model was established through logistic regression (P < 0.05). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration curves, bootstrap and decision curve analysis (DCA) were utilized for evaluating the performance of the nomogram. A sum of 965 eligible patients were participated, of whom 922 were assigned into a survival group and 43 in a non-survival group. Six independent predictors were identified as the most valuable characteristics in AP patients, including age, activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT), direct bilirubin (DBIL), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), total protein (TP) and blood urea nitrogen (UREA). The AUC of the nomogram was 0.862 (0.806-0.918). The DCA curve indicates that this nomogram possesses good clinical application value. The nomogram we constructed demonstrates a strong capability in predicting the 30-day mortality of AP patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ying Chen
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China
- Branch of National Clinical Research Center for Laboratory Medicine, Nanjing, China
| | - Jingping Liu
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China
- Branch of National Clinical Research Center for Laboratory Medicine, Nanjing, China
| | - Qiuxia Ge
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China
- Branch of National Clinical Research Center for Laboratory Medicine, Nanjing, China
| | - Min Wang
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China.
- Branch of National Clinical Research Center for Laboratory Medicine, Nanjing, China.
| | - Jun Zhou
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China.
- Branch of National Clinical Research Center for Laboratory Medicine, Nanjing, China.
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Liberto JD, Butt A, Bhuiyan MN. 56-Year-Old Man With Abdominal Pain, Decreased Urine Output, Nausea, and Vomiting. Mayo Clin Proc 2025:S0025-6196(24)00434-8. [PMID: 40319405 DOI: 10.1016/j.mayocp.2024.05.036] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/25/2024] [Revised: 05/21/2024] [Accepted: 05/24/2024] [Indexed: 05/07/2025]
Affiliation(s)
- Julia D Liberto
- Resident in Internal Medicine, Mayo Clinic School of Graduate Medical Education, Rochester, MN
| | - Ahsan Butt
- Resident in Internal Medicine, Mayo Clinic School of Graduate Medical Education, Rochester, MN
| | - M Nadir Bhuiyan
- Advisor to residents and Consultant in Internal Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN.
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Xia H, Lin J, Liu M, Lai J, Yang Z, Qiu L. Association of blood urea nitrogen to albumin ratio with mortality in acute pancreatitis. Sci Rep 2025; 15:13327. [PMID: 40247063 PMCID: PMC12006543 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-025-97891-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/23/2024] [Accepted: 04/08/2025] [Indexed: 04/19/2025] Open
Abstract
Blood urea nitrogen (BUN) and serum albumin (ALB) are strongly associated with the prognosis in acute pancreatitis (AP). The BUN/ALB ratio (BAR) reflects renal, nutritional, inflammatory, and endothelial functions. In this study, we investigated the association between the BAR and all-cause mortality in critically ill patients with AP. Using data from the Medical Information Market for Intensive Care (MIMIC-IV) database, we conducted a retrospective cohort analysis. The relationship between BAR and mortality was assessed through Kaplan-Meier survival curves, restricted cubic spline models, and multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression. The predictive capacity of BAR for 30-day and 1-year mortality was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic analysis. Our study included 780 participants, with 30-day and 1-year mortality rates of 12.6% and 23.6%, respectively. Higher BAR values were associated with poorer survival outcomes. BAR demonstrated superior predictive performance achieving an area under the curve of 0.74, surpassing BUN, ALB, and SOFA scores. The Cox model indicated a significant independent association between elevated BAR and increased mortality risk, with hazard ratios of 1.43 (95% CI 1.20-1.70) for 30-day mortality and 1.37 (95% CI 1.17-1.60) for 1-year mortality. Stratified and sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of these findings. Our results suggest that elevated BAR is associated with poor prognosis in critically ill patients with AP and may serve as a valuable tool for early risk stratification and for assessing both short- and long-term prognosis.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hao Xia
- Department of Medicine Intensive Care Unit, Zhangzhou Hospital Affiliated to Fujian Medical University, Zhangzhou, 363000, Fujian, China
| | - Jinzhan Lin
- Department of Medicine Intensive Care Unit, Zhangzhou Hospital Affiliated to Fujian Medical University, Zhangzhou, 363000, Fujian, China
| | - Minchao Liu
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, Zhangzhou Hospital Affiliated to Fujian Medical University, Zhangzhou, 363000, Fujian, China
| | - Jiawei Lai
- Department of Medicine Intensive Care Unit, Zhangzhou Hospital Affiliated to Fujian Medical University, Zhangzhou, 363000, Fujian, China
| | - Zhaobin Yang
- Department of Medicine Intensive Care Unit, Zhangzhou Hospital Affiliated to Fujian Medical University, Zhangzhou, 363000, Fujian, China.
| | - Luzhen Qiu
- Department of Medicine Intensive Care Unit, Zhangzhou Hospital Affiliated to Fujian Medical University, Zhangzhou, 363000, Fujian, China.
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Arora S, Patro S, Sharma V, Choudhary A, Desale S, Nath P. Red Blood Cell Distribution Width-to-Platelet Count Ratio as a Prognostic Marker for Predicting Severity and Various Outcomes in Acute Pancreatitis. Cureus 2025; 17:e81747. [PMID: 40330370 PMCID: PMC12051749 DOI: 10.7759/cureus.81747] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/19/2024] [Accepted: 04/04/2025] [Indexed: 05/08/2025] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION The natural course of acute pancreatitis is quite variable, where most patients with mild acute pancreatitis usually follow a self-limiting course, whereas the mortality is quite higher in severe acute pancreatitis. Hence, early prediction of severity is essential for proper triaging. The study aimed to assess the diagnostic accuracy of red blood cell distribution width (RDW)-to-platelet count ratio (RPR) as a prognostic marker in acute pancreatitis. METHODS It was a prospective, observational study conducted on consecutive patients with acute pancreatitis. All participants were subjected to routine laboratory investigations and radiological evaluation using transabdominal ultrasound at the time of admission and a contrast-enhanced CT scan after 96 hours. All the parameters, including RPR, and various severity scores, such as the Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) score, Ranson score, Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) score, and Modified Marshall score, were compared between patients with mild or moderate to severe acute pancreatitis by using standard statistical tests. RESULTS A total of 200 patients diagnosed with acute pancreatitis were enrolled in this study, out of which the most common etiologies of acute pancreatitis were alcohol abuse (88 (44%)) and gallstones (57 (28.5%)). The overall mortality in our patients was seven (3.5%), which occurred only in severe acute pancreatitis. The mean RPR of patients with mild and moderately severe to severe acute pancreatitis were 0.07 ± 0.02 and 0.12 ± 0.09, respectively (p < 0.05), whereas the mean RPR of patients who survived and those who did not were 0.09 ± 0.06 and 0.12 ± 0.05, respectively (p < 0.05). CONCLUSION RPR calculated at the time of admission is found to be an independent prognostic marker in acute pancreatitis with the potential to identify individuals at risk for developing severe acute pancreatitis as well as mortality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sidharth Arora
- Endocrinology, Sher-i-Kashmir Institute of Medical Sciences, Srinagar, IND
| | - Shubhransu Patro
- General Medicine, Kalinga Institute of Medical Sciences, Kalinga Institute of Industrial Technology (KIIT) Deemed to be University, Bhubaneswar, IND
| | - Vibha Sharma
- General Medicine, Kalinga Institute of Medical Sciences, Kalinga Institute of Industrial Technology (KIIT) Deemed to be University, Bhubaneswar, IND
| | - Arushi Choudhary
- General Medicine, Kalinga Institute of Medical Sciences, Kalinga Institute of Industrial Technology (KIIT) Deemed to be University, Bhubaneswar, IND
| | - Shubham Desale
- General Medicine, Kalinga Institute of Medical Sciences, Kalinga Institute of Industrial Technology (KIIT) Deemed to be University, Bhubaneswar, IND
| | - Preetam Nath
- Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Kalinga Institute of Medical Sciences, Kalinga Institute of Industrial Technology (KIIT) Deemed to be University, Bhubaneswar, IND
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Guilabert L, Cárdenas-Jaén K, de-Madaria E. Initial Management of Acute Pancreatitis. Gastroenterol Clin North Am 2025; 54:21-36. [PMID: 39880529 DOI: 10.1016/j.gtc.2024.07.001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/05/2025]
Abstract
The initial management of acute pancreatitis (AP) is continually evolving. Goal-directed moderate fluid resuscitation is now preferred over more aggressive strategies. Antibiotics should be administered only when there is a proven or highly probable infection rather than for prophylactic purposes. Urgent endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography would be beneficial for patients with acute cholangitis. Same-admission cholecystectomy for mild biliary PA is safe, efficiently prevents relapse, and is associated with lower costs compared with interval cholecystectomy. Ongoing research into novel pharmacologic treatments and strategies is essential for further advancements in AP management.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lucía Guilabert
- Gastroenterology Department, Dr. Balmis General University Hospital, Alicante Institute of Health and Biomedical Research (ISABIAL), Servicio de Aparato Digestivo, 4 planta C, Pintor Baeza 12, 03010, Alicante, Spain. https://twitter.com/Lguilabert1
| | - Karina Cárdenas-Jaén
- Gastroenterology Department, Dr. Balmis General University Hospital, Alicante Institute of Health and Biomedical Research (ISABIAL), Servicio de Aparato Digestivo, 4 planta C, Pintor Baeza 12, 03010, Alicante, Spain. https://twitter.com/KarinaCardenasJ1
| | - Enrique de-Madaria
- Gastroenterology Department, Dr. Balmis General University Hospital, Alicante Institute of Health and Biomedical Research (ISABIAL), Servicio de Aparato Digestivo, 4 planta C, Pintor Baeza 12, 03010, Alicante, Spain; Clinical Medicine Department, Miguel Hernandez University, Campus UMH de Sant Joan, Edificio Francisco Javier Balmis, Carretera Nacional 332 s/n, 03550, San Juan de Alicante, Spain.
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Deng T, Wu D, Liu SS, Chen XL, Zhao ZW, Zhang LL. Association of blood urea nitrogen with 28-day mortality in critically ill patients: A multi-center retrospective study based on the eICU collaborative research database. PLoS One 2025; 20:e0317315. [PMID: 39808678 PMCID: PMC11731709 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0317315] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/11/2024] [Accepted: 12/24/2024] [Indexed: 01/16/2025] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Blood urea nitrogen (BUN) is a commonly used biomarker for assessing kidney function and neuroendocrine activity. Previous studies have indicated that elevated BUN levels are associated with increased mortality in various critically ill patient populations. The focus of this study was to investigate the relationship between BUN and 28-day mortality in intensive care patients. METHODS This was a multi-centre retrospective cohort study that made use of data from the eICU Collaborative Research Database. The primary exposure variable was BUN, and the outcome was 28-day mortality. The following variables were included as covariates: age, gender, BMI, white blood cell count, creatinine, GCS score, APACHE IV score, and diabetes. The statistical analyses included univariate and multivariate logistic regression, as well as generalized additive modelling, which was employed to assess the non-linear relationship between BUN and mortality. RESULTS A total of 63,757 elderly patients were included in the study, with a 28-day mortality of 6.5%. The univariate analysis indicated that elevated BUN quartiles were associated with an increased risk of mortality. The results of the multivariate analysis further confirmed the non-linear relationship between BUN and mortality. When BUN was less than 32 mg/dL, there was a significant positive association, with an adjusted odds ratio of 1.230 (95% CI: 1.154-1.311, p<0.0001) for every 10 mg/dL increase in BUN. However, when BUN was greater than or equal to 32 mg/dL, BUN level had no significant effect on mortality. CONCLUSION BUN showed a nonlinear, threshold correlation with 28-day mortality in critically ill patients. The higher the BUN, the greater the risk of death if the BUN is below the threshold.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ting Deng
- Department of Urology, Fuyong People’s Hospital of Baoan District, Shenzhen, Guangdong Province, China
| | - Die Wu
- Department of Chinese Medicine and Anorectology, Fuyong People’s Hospital of Baoan District, Shenzhen, Guangdong Province, China
| | - Shan-shan Liu
- Department of Nursing, Fuyong People’s Hospital of Baoan District, Shenzhen, Guangdong Province, China
| | - Xing-lin Chen
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Empower U.X&Y Solutions Inc, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Zhen-wei Zhao
- Department of Urology, Fuyong People’s Hospital of Baoan District, Shenzhen, Guangdong Province, China
| | - Lan-lang Zhang
- Department of Haemodialysis, Fuyong People’s Hospital of Baoan District, Shenzhen, Guangdong Province, China
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Özdede M, Batur A, Aksoy AE. Improved outcome prediction in acute pancreatitis with generated data and advanced machine learning algorithms. Turk J Emerg Med 2025; 25:32-40. [PMID: 39882088 PMCID: PMC11774427 DOI: 10.4103/tjem.tjem_161_24] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/12/2024] [Revised: 10/30/2024] [Accepted: 10/31/2024] [Indexed: 01/31/2025] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Traditional scoring systems have been widely used to predict acute pancreatitis (AP) severity but have limitations in predictive accuracy. This study investigates the use of machine learning (ML) algorithms to improve predictive accuracy in AP. METHODS A retrospective study was conducted using data from 101 AP patients in a tertiary hospital in Türkiye. Data were preprocessed, and synthetic data were generated with Gaussian noise addition and balanced with the ADASYN algorithm, resulting in 250 cases. Supervised ML models, including random forest (RF) and XGBoost (XGB), were trained, tested, and validated against traditional clinical scores (Ranson's, modified Glasgow, and BISAP) using area under the curve (AUC), F1 score, and recall. RESULTS RF outperformed XGB with an AUC of 0.89, F1 score of 0.82, and recall of 0.82. BISAP showed balanced performance (AUC = 0.70, F1 = 0.44, and recall = 0.85), whereas the Glasgow criteria had the highest recall but lower precision (AUC = 0.70, F1 = 0.38, and recall = 0.95). Ranson's admission criteria were the least effective (AUC = 0.53, F1 = 0.42, and recall = 0.39), probable because it lacked the 48th h features. CONCLUSION ML models, especially RF, significantly outperform traditional clinical scores in predicting adverse outcomes in AP, suggesting that integrating ML into clinical practice could improve prognostic assessments.
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Affiliation(s)
- Murat Özdede
- Department of Internal Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Hacettepe University, Ankara, Türkiye
| | - Ali Batur
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Hacettepe University, Ankara, Türkiye
| | - Alp Eren Aksoy
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Hacettepe University, Ankara, Türkiye
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Zhou LX, Zhou Q, Gao TM, Xiang XX, Zhou Y, Jin SJ, Qian JJ, Zhou BH, Bai DS, Jiang GQ. Machine learning predicts acute respiratory failure in pancreatitis patients: A retrospective study. Int J Med Inform 2024; 192:105629. [PMID: 39321493 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijmedinf.2024.105629] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/13/2024] [Revised: 08/16/2024] [Accepted: 09/13/2024] [Indexed: 09/27/2024]
Abstract
PURPOSE The purpose of the research is to design an algorithm to predict the occurrence of acute respiratory failure (ARF) in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP). METHODS We collected data on patients with AP in the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV database. The enrolled observations were randomly divided into a 70 % training cohort and a 30 % validation cohort, and the observations in the training cohort were divided into ARF and non-ARF groups. Feature engineering was conducted using random forest (RF) and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) methods in the training cohort. The model building included logistic regression (LR), decision tree (DT), k-nearest neighbours (KNN), naive bayes (NB) and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost). Parameters for model evaluation include receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, precision-recall curve (PRC), calibration curves, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), true positive rate (TPR), true negative rate (TNR), accuracy (ACC) and F1 score. RESULTS Among 4527 patients, 445 patients (9.8 %) experienced ARF. Ca, ALB, GLR, WBC, AG and BUN have been included in the prediction model as features for predicting ARF. The AUC of XGBoost were 0.86 (95 %CI 0.84-0.88) and 0.87 (95 %CI 0.84-0.90) in the training and validation cohorts. In the training cohort, XGBoost demonstrates a true positive rate (TPR) of 0.662, a true negative rate (TNR) of 0.884, a positive predictive value (PPV) of 0.380, a negative predictive value (NPV) of 0.960, an accuracy (ACC) of 0.862, and an F1 score of 0.483. In the validation cohort, XGBoost shows a TPR of 0.620, a TNR of 0.895, a PPV of 0.399, an NPV of 0.955, an ACC of 0.867, and an F1 score of 0.486. CONCLUSION The XGBOOST model demonstrates good discriminatory ability, which enables clinicians to ascertain the probability of developing ARF in AP patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Liu-Xin Zhou
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, Northern Jiangsu People's Hospital Affiliated to Yangzhou University, Yangzhou, Jiangsu 225001, China
| | - Qin Zhou
- Department of General Surgery, Liangzhou District Hospital of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine, Wuwei, Gansu 733000, China
| | - Tian-Ming Gao
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, Northern Jiangsu People's Hospital Affiliated to Yangzhou University, Yangzhou, Jiangsu 225001, China
| | - Xiao-Xing Xiang
- Department of Digestive Diseases, Northern Jiangsu People's Hospital Affiliated to Yangzhou University, Yangzhou, Jiangsu 225001, China; Department of Digestive Diseases, Northern Jiangsu People's Hospital, Yangzhou, Jiangsu 225001, China
| | - Yong Zhou
- Department of Hepatopancreatobiliary Surgery, The Chongqing University Fuling Hospital, Fuling 408000, Chongqing, China
| | - Sheng-Jie Jin
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, Northern Jiangsu People's Hospital Affiliated to Yangzhou University, Yangzhou, Jiangsu 225001, China; Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, Northern Jiangsu People's Hospital, Yangzhou, Jiangsu 225001, China
| | - Jian-Jun Qian
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, Northern Jiangsu People's Hospital Affiliated to Yangzhou University, Yangzhou, Jiangsu 225001, China; Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, Northern Jiangsu People's Hospital, Yangzhou, Jiangsu 225001, China
| | - Bao-Huan Zhou
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, Northern Jiangsu People's Hospital Affiliated to Yangzhou University, Yangzhou, Jiangsu 225001, China; Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, Northern Jiangsu People's Hospital, Yangzhou, Jiangsu 225001, China
| | - Dou-Sheng Bai
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, Northern Jiangsu People's Hospital Affiliated to Yangzhou University, Yangzhou, Jiangsu 225001, China; Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, Northern Jiangsu People's Hospital, Yangzhou, Jiangsu 225001, China
| | - Guo-Qing Jiang
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, Northern Jiangsu People's Hospital Affiliated to Yangzhou University, Yangzhou, Jiangsu 225001, China; Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, Northern Jiangsu People's Hospital, Yangzhou, Jiangsu 225001, China.
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Paramythiotis D, Karlafti E, Tsavdaris D, Giakoustidis A, Panidis S, Ioannidis A, Prassopoulos P, Michalopoulos A. When to Intervene in Acute Necrotizing Pancreatitis: A Narrative Review of the Optimal Timing for Intervention Strategies. MEDICINA (KAUNAS, LITHUANIA) 2024; 60:1592. [PMID: 39459378 PMCID: PMC11509130 DOI: 10.3390/medicina60101592] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/04/2024] [Revised: 09/24/2024] [Accepted: 09/25/2024] [Indexed: 10/28/2024]
Abstract
Introduction: Acute necrotizing pancreatitis (ANP) is the acute inflammation of pancreatic parenchyma, most commonly due to alcohol abuse or cholelithiasis. The treatment can be either conservative or invasive, including a variety of techniques; however, it has not yet been established if the intervention should be early or if it should be delayed. The aim of this review is to investigate the optimal time for intervention in ANP. Methods: A literature search was conducted in PubMed and Scopus from inception until September 2024 for studies reporting the comparison between early and late intervention. Results: Early intervention, within 4 weeks of symptom onset, often involves drainage via percutaneous, endoscopic, or combined methods. Delayed intervention occurs after 4 weeks of symptom onset. This can be conducted either surgically or via minimally invasive means. The results of this review reveal that the time of intervention for ANP plays an important role in the prognosis and the course of the disease. In particular, early intervention is associated with higher mortality, which is also the primary clinical outcome. Delayed intervention is also superior regarding secondary clinical outcomes, specifically the complications associated with the intervention. Thus, it is accompanied by fewer episodes of new-onset organ failure, bleeding, gastrointestinal fistula, pancreatic fistula, wound infection, endocrine pancreatic insufficiency, and other complications. Finally, delayed intervention results in shorter stays, both in hospitals and the ICU. Conclusions: Delayed intervention is clearly more effective than early intervention and should be preferred. However, early intervention appears to be both safe and effective, and it is feasible.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daniel Paramythiotis
- First Propaedeutic Surgery Department, University General Hospital of Thessaloniki AHEPA, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54636 Thessaloniki, Greece; (D.P.); (D.T.); (S.P.); (A.I.); (A.M.)
| | - Eleni Karlafti
- Emergency Department, University General Hospital of Thessaloniki AHEPA, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54636 Thessaloniki, Greece
- First Propaedeutic Department of Internal Medicine, University General Hospital of Thessaloniki AHEPA, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54636 Thessaloniki, Greece
| | - Dimitrios Tsavdaris
- First Propaedeutic Surgery Department, University General Hospital of Thessaloniki AHEPA, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54636 Thessaloniki, Greece; (D.P.); (D.T.); (S.P.); (A.I.); (A.M.)
| | - Alexandros Giakoustidis
- First Surgery Department, University General Hospital of Thessaloniki Papageorgiou, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54636 Thessaloniki, Greece;
| | - Stavros Panidis
- First Propaedeutic Surgery Department, University General Hospital of Thessaloniki AHEPA, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54636 Thessaloniki, Greece; (D.P.); (D.T.); (S.P.); (A.I.); (A.M.)
| | - Aristeidis Ioannidis
- First Propaedeutic Surgery Department, University General Hospital of Thessaloniki AHEPA, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54636 Thessaloniki, Greece; (D.P.); (D.T.); (S.P.); (A.I.); (A.M.)
| | - Panos Prassopoulos
- Department of Radiology, University General Hospital of Thessaloniki AHEPA, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54636 Thessaloniki, Greece;
| | - Antonios Michalopoulos
- First Propaedeutic Surgery Department, University General Hospital of Thessaloniki AHEPA, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54636 Thessaloniki, Greece; (D.P.); (D.T.); (S.P.); (A.I.); (A.M.)
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11
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Paramythiotis D, Karlafti E, Tsavdaris D, Giakoustidis A, Panidis S, Ioannidis A, Prassopoulos P, Michalopoulos A. When to Intervene in Acute Necrotizing Pancreatitis: A Narrative Review of the Optimal Timing for Intervention Strategies. Medicina (B Aires) 2024; 60:1592. [DOI: https:/doi.org/10.3390/medicina60101592] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/16/2025] Open
Abstract
Introduction: Acute necrotizing pancreatitis (ANP) is the acute inflammation of pancreatic parenchyma, most commonly due to alcohol abuse or cholelithiasis. The treatment can be either conservative or invasive, including a variety of techniques; however, it has not yet been established if the intervention should be early or if it should be delayed. The aim of this review is to investigate the optimal time for intervention in ANP. Methods: A literature search was conducted in PubMed and Scopus from inception until September 2024 for studies reporting the comparison between early and late intervention. Results: Early intervention, within 4 weeks of symptom onset, often involves drainage via percutaneous, endoscopic, or combined methods. Delayed intervention occurs after 4 weeks of symptom onset. This can be conducted either surgically or via minimally invasive means. The results of this review reveal that the time of intervention for ANP plays an important role in the prognosis and the course of the disease. In particular, early intervention is associated with higher mortality, which is also the primary clinical outcome. Delayed intervention is also superior regarding secondary clinical outcomes, specifically the complications associated with the intervention. Thus, it is accompanied by fewer episodes of new-onset organ failure, bleeding, gastrointestinal fistula, pancreatic fistula, wound infection, endocrine pancreatic insufficiency, and other complications. Finally, delayed intervention results in shorter stays, both in hospitals and the ICU. Conclusions: Delayed intervention is clearly more effective than early intervention and should be preferred. However, early intervention appears to be both safe and effective, and it is feasible.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daniel Paramythiotis
- First Propaedeutic Surgery Department, University General Hospital of Thessaloniki AHEPA, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54636 Thessaloniki, Greece
| | - Eleni Karlafti
- Emergency Department, University General Hospital of Thessaloniki AHEPA, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54636 Thessaloniki, Greece
- First Propaedeutic Department of Internal Medicine, University General Hospital of Thessaloniki AHEPA, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54636 Thessaloniki, Greece
| | - Dimitrios Tsavdaris
- First Propaedeutic Surgery Department, University General Hospital of Thessaloniki AHEPA, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54636 Thessaloniki, Greece
| | - Alexandros Giakoustidis
- First Surgery Department, University General Hospital of Thessaloniki Papageorgiou, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54636 Thessaloniki, Greece
| | - Stavros Panidis
- First Propaedeutic Surgery Department, University General Hospital of Thessaloniki AHEPA, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54636 Thessaloniki, Greece
| | - Aristeidis Ioannidis
- First Propaedeutic Surgery Department, University General Hospital of Thessaloniki AHEPA, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54636 Thessaloniki, Greece
| | - Panos Prassopoulos
- Department of Radiology, University General Hospital of Thessaloniki AHEPA, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54636 Thessaloniki, Greece
| | - Antonios Michalopoulos
- First Propaedeutic Surgery Department, University General Hospital of Thessaloniki AHEPA, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54636 Thessaloniki, Greece
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12
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Zhang J, Weng X. Development of a Nomogram to Predict the Risk for Acute Necrotizing Pancreatitis. Gut Liver 2024; 18:915-923. [PMID: 38384201 PMCID: PMC11391142 DOI: 10.5009/gnl230403] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/04/2023] [Revised: 11/15/2023] [Accepted: 11/21/2023] [Indexed: 02/23/2024] Open
Abstract
Background/Aims Necrotizing pancreatitis (NP) presents a more severe clinical trajectory and increased mortality compared to edematous pancreatitis. Prompt identification of NP is vital for patient prognosis. A risk prediction model for NP among Chinese patients has been developed and validated to aid in early detection. Methods A retrospective analysis was performed on 218 patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) to examine the association of various clinical variables with NP. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was utilized to refine variables and select predictors. Subsequently, a multivariate logistic regression was employed to construct a predictive nomogram. The model's accuracy was validated using bootstrap resampling (n=500) and its calibration assessed via a calibration curve. The model's clinical utility was evaluated through decision curve analysis. Results Of the 28 potential predictors analyzed in 218 AP patients, the incidence of NP was 25.2%. LASSO regression identified 14 variables, with procalcitonin, triglyceride, white blood cell count at 48 hours post-admission, calcium at 48 hours post-admission, and hematocrit at 48 hours post-admission emerging as independent risk factors for NP. The resulting nomogram accurately predicted NP risk with an area under the curve of 0.822, sensitivity of 82.8%, and specificity of 76.4%. The bootstrap-validated area under the curve remained at 0.822 (95% confidence interval, 0.737 to 0.892). This model exhibited excellent calibration and demonstrated greater predictive efficacy and clinical utility for NP than APACHE II, Ranson, and BISAP. Conclusions We have developed a prediction nomogram of NP that is of great value in guiding clinical decision.
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Affiliation(s)
- Junchao Zhang
- Department of Gastroenterology, Xiamen Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Xiamen, China
| | - Xiaxia Weng
- Department of Gastroenterology, Xiamen Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Xiamen, China
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13
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Trikudanathan G, Yazici C, Evans Phillips A, Forsmark CE. Diagnosis and Management of Acute Pancreatitis. Gastroenterology 2024; 167:673-688. [PMID: 38759844 DOI: 10.1053/j.gastro.2024.02.052] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/04/2023] [Revised: 01/03/2024] [Accepted: 02/18/2024] [Indexed: 05/19/2024]
Abstract
Acute pancreatitis (AP) is increasing in incidence across the world, and in all age groups. Major changes in management have occurred in the last decade. Avoiding total parenteral nutrition and prophylactic antibiotics, avoiding overly aggressive fluid resuscitation, initiating early feeding, avoiding endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography in the absence of concomitant cholangitis, same-admission cholecystectomy, and minimally invasive approaches to infected necrosis should now be standard of care. Increasing recognition of the risk of recurrence of AP, and progression to chronic pancreatitis, along with the unexpectedly high risk of diabetes and exocrine insufficiency after AP is the subject of large ongoing studies. In this review, we provide an update on important changes in management for this increasingly common disease.
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Affiliation(s)
- Guru Trikudanathan
- Division of Gastroenterology, Hepatology, and Nutrition, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota
| | - Cemal Yazici
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, University of Illinois, Chicago, Illinois
| | - Anna Evans Phillips
- Division of Gastroenterology, Hepatology, and Nutrition, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
| | - Chris E Forsmark
- Division of Gastroenterology, Hepatology, and Nutrition, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida.
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Librero-Jiménez M, Valverde-López F, Abellán-Alfocea P, Fernández-Cano MC, Fernández-Fernández E, Martínez-Cara JG, López-González E, Jiménez-Rosales R, Redondo-Cerezo E. Usefulness of Dynamic Assessment of Clinical and Laboratory Factors in Severe Acute Pancreatitis. J Clin Med 2024; 13:4412. [PMID: 39124678 PMCID: PMC11313065 DOI: 10.3390/jcm13154412] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/20/2024] [Revised: 07/22/2024] [Accepted: 07/26/2024] [Indexed: 08/12/2024] Open
Abstract
Background/Objectives: Early identification of patients at risk of developing severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) is still an issue. Dynamic assessment of clinical and laboratory parameters within the first 48 h of admission may offer valuable insights into the prediction of unfavorable outcomes such as SAP and death. Methods: A prospective observational study was conducted on a cohort of patients admitted for AP at a tertiary referral hospital. Clinical and laboratory data were collected on admission and at 48 h. Patients were classified based on the Revised Atlanta classification. Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify independent risk factors for SAP. Likelihood ratios and post-test probabilities were calculated to assess the clinical usefulness of predictive markers. Results: 227 patients were included, with biliary etiology being the most common and a prevalence of SAP and death of 10.7% and 5.7%, respectively. BISAP ≥ 2 on admission, presence of SIRS after 48 h, rise in heart rate over 20 bpm, and any increase in BUN after 48 h were independent risk factors for SAP. The combination of these factors increased the post-test probability of SAP and death, with BISAP ≥ 2 combined with the presence of SIRS after 48 h showing the highest probability (82% and 73%, respectively). Conclusions: Dynamic assessment of BUN, heart rate, and SIRS within the first 48 h of admission can aid in predicting the development of SAP and death in patients with AP. These findings underscore the importance of continuous monitoring, although multicenter studies are warranted to refine predictive models for SAP.
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15
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Ren W, Zou K, Huang S, Xu H, Zhang W, Shi X, Shi L, Zhong X, Peng Y, Tang X, Lü M. Prediction of in-hospital Mortality of Intensive Care Unit Patients with Acute Pancreatitis Based on an Explainable Machine Learning Algorithm. J Clin Gastroenterol 2024; 58:619-626. [PMID: 37712768 DOI: 10.1097/mcg.0000000000001910] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/26/2023] [Accepted: 07/16/2023] [Indexed: 09/16/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIM Acute pancreatitis (AP) is potentially fatal. Therefore, early identification of patients at a high mortality risk and timely intervention are essential. This study aimed to establish an explainable machine-learning model for predicting in-hospital mortality of intensive care unit (ICU) patients with AP. METHODS Data on patients with AP, including demographics, vital signs, laboratory tests, comorbidities, treatment, complication, and severity scores, were extracted from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV) and the eICU collaborative research database (eICU-CRD). Based on the data from MIMIC-IV, we used the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator algorithm to select variables and then established 9 machine-learning models and screened the optimal model. Data from the eICU-CRD were used for external validation. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, decision curve, and calibration plots were used to assess the models' efficacy. Shapley's additive explanation values were used to explain the model. RESULTS Gaussian naive Bayes (GNB) model had the best performance on the data from MIMIC-IV, with an AUC, accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity of 0.840, 0.787, 0.839, and 0.792, respectively. The GNB model also performed well on the data from the eICU-CRD, with an AUC, accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity of 0.862, 0.833, 0.848, and 0.763, respectively. According to Shapley's additive explanation values, the top 4 predictive factors were maximum red cell distribution width, minimum saturation of blood oxygen, maximum blood urea nitrogen, and the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score. CONCLUSION The GNB model demonstrated excellent performance and generalizability in predicting mortality in ICU patients with AP. Therefore, it can identify patients at a high mortality risk.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wensen Ren
- Department of Gastroenterology, the Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University
- Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Luzhou
| | - Kang Zou
- Department of Gastroenterology, the Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University
- Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Luzhou
| | - Shu Huang
- Department of Gastroenterology, Lianshui County People's Hospital
- Department of Gastroenterology, Lianshui People's Hospital of Kangda College Affiliated to Nanjing Medical University, Huaian, China
| | - Huan Xu
- Department of Gastroenterology, the Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University
- Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Luzhou
| | - Wei Zhang
- Department of Gastroenterology, the Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University
- Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Luzhou
| | - Xiaomin Shi
- Department of Gastroenterology, the Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University
- Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Luzhou
| | - Lei Shi
- Department of Gastroenterology, the Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University
- Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Luzhou
| | - Xiaolin Zhong
- Department of Gastroenterology, the Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University
- Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Luzhou
| | - Yan Peng
- Department of Gastroenterology, the Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University
- Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Luzhou
| | - Xiaowei Tang
- Department of Gastroenterology, the Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University
- Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Luzhou
| | - Muhan Lü
- Department of Gastroenterology, the Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University
- Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Luzhou
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16
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Checketts TR, Sidhu S, Reiche WS, Walters RW, Buaisha H. Using Acidosis as a Surrogate for or Supplement to the Bedside Index of Severity in Acute Pancreatitis Scoring Prediction System Has a Nonsignificant Effect. Cureus 2024; 16:e63826. [PMID: 39100030 PMCID: PMC11297637 DOI: 10.7759/cureus.63826] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 07/01/2024] [Indexed: 08/06/2024] Open
Abstract
Currently, risk stratification calculators for acute pancreatitis (AP) can at best predict acute pancreatitis mortality at 12 hours from the presentation. Given the severe morbidity associated with AP, the identification of additional prognostic indicators, which may afford earlier prediction in length of stay (LOS) and mortality, is desired. Metabolic acidosis can be a prognostic marker for the severity of AP, and venous bicarbonate can reliably and accurately be substituted for arterial base deficit to detect metabolic acidosis. Since serum bicarbonate, anion gap (AG), and corrected AG (CAG) are routinely obtained upon presentation to the emergency department and often daily in the hospital, we conducted a retrospective analysis of 443 patients, evaluating if venous bicarbonate could predict the severity of pancreatitis as well as mortality, admission to the ICU, ICU LOS, and hospital LOS. The inclusion of venous bicarbonate, AG, and CAG in the first 12 hours only slightly improved the predictive capabilities of the Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) score for these secondary outcomes. None of our incorporations of acidemia improved severity predictions more than the BISAP alone. Adding CAG to BISAP scoring had the largest effect on predicting ICU admission and hospital LOS (area under the curve (AUC): 1.12 (confidence interval (CI) 95%: 1.06-1.19), p <.001 and AUC 1.02 (CI 95% 1.01-1.04), p <.001; respectively). ICU LOS was not impacted by the addition of AG, CAG, or venous bicarbonate. In-hospital death (n=12) was too small to be determined.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Suhail Sidhu
- Medicine, Creighton University School of Medicine, Omaha, USA
| | - Will S Reiche
- Gastroenterology, Creighton University School of Medicine, Omaha, USA
| | - Ryan W Walters
- Clinical Research and Public Health, Creighton University School of Medicine, Omaha, USA
| | - Haitam Buaisha
- Gastroenterology, Creighton University School of Medicine, Omaha, USA
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Metri A, Bush N, Singh VK. Predicting the severity of acute pancreatitis: Current approaches and future directions. Surg Open Sci 2024; 19:109-117. [PMID: 38650599 PMCID: PMC11033200 DOI: 10.1016/j.sopen.2024.03.012] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/20/2023] [Revised: 03/23/2024] [Accepted: 03/25/2024] [Indexed: 04/25/2024] Open
Abstract
Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a sudden-onset inflammatory disease of the pancreas. The severity of AP is classified into mild, moderate, and severe categories based on the presence and persistence of organ failure. Severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) can be associated with significant morbidity and mortality. It requires early recognition for appropriate timely management. Prognostic scores for predicting SAP incorporating many clinical, laboratory, and radiological parameters have been developed in the past. However, all of these prognostic scores have low positive predictive value for SAP and some of these scores require >24 h for assessment. There is a need to develop biomarkers that can accurately identify patients at risk for SAP early in the course of the presentation. In this review, we aim to provide a summary of the most commonly utilized prognostic scores for AP and discuss future directions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Aida Metri
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, United States of America
| | - Nikhil Bush
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, United States of America
| | - Vikesh K. Singh
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, United States of America
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18
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Wang Z, Wang W, Wang M, He Q, Xu J, Zou K, Kang Y, Sun X. Blood Urine Nitrogen Trajectories of Acute Pancreatitis Patients in Intensive Care Units. J Inflamm Res 2024; 17:3449-3458. [PMID: 38828047 PMCID: PMC11143994 DOI: 10.2147/jir.s460142] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/17/2024] [Accepted: 05/14/2024] [Indexed: 06/05/2024] Open
Abstract
Objective To identify subclasses of acute pancreatitis (AP) patients in the intensive care unit (ICU) by analyzing blood urea nitrogen (BUN) trajectories. Methods AP patients in West China Hospital System (development cohort) and three public databases in the United States (validation cohort) were included. Latent class trajectory modelling was used to identify subclasses based on BUN trajectories within the first 21 days after ICU admission. Clinical characteristics and outcomes were compared, and results were externally validated. Results The study comprised 2971 and 930 patients in the development and validation cohorts, respectively, with five subclasses: Class 1 ("Moderate-azotemia, slow decreasing"), Class 2 ("Non-azotemia"), Class 3 ("Severe-azotemia, slow decreasing"), Class 4 ("Moderate-azotemia, rapid increasing"), and Class 5 ('Moderate-azotemia, slow increasing) identified. Azotemia patients showed significantly higher 30-day mortality risk in development and validation cohorts. Specifically, Class 4 patients exhibited notably highest mortality risk in both the development cohort (HR 5.32, 95% CI 2.62-10.82) and validation cohort (HR 6.23, 95% CI 2.93-13.22). Regarding clinical characteristics, AP patients in Class 4 showed lower mean arterial pressure and a higher proportion of renal disease. We also created an online early classification model to further identify Class 4 patients among all patients with moderate azotemia at baseline. Conclusion This multinational study uncovers heterogeneity in BUN trajectories among AP patients. Patients with "Moderate-azotemia, rapid increasing" trajectory, had a higher mortality risk than patients with severe azotemia at baseline. This finding complements studies that solely rely on baseline BUN for risk stratification and enhanced our understanding of longitudinal progression of AP.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zichen Wang
- Institute of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine, Chinese Evidence-Based Medicine Center and Cochrane China Center, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, People’s Republic of China
- NMPA Key Laboratory for Real World Data Research and Evaluation in Hainan, Chengdu, 610041, People’s Republic of China
- Sichuan Center of Technology Innovation for Real World Data, Chengdu, People’s Republic of China
| | - Wen Wang
- Institute of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine, Chinese Evidence-Based Medicine Center and Cochrane China Center, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, People’s Republic of China
- NMPA Key Laboratory for Real World Data Research and Evaluation in Hainan, Chengdu, 610041, People’s Republic of China
- Sichuan Center of Technology Innovation for Real World Data, Chengdu, People’s Republic of China
| | - Mingqi Wang
- Institute of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine, Chinese Evidence-Based Medicine Center and Cochrane China Center, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, People’s Republic of China
- NMPA Key Laboratory for Real World Data Research and Evaluation in Hainan, Chengdu, 610041, People’s Republic of China
- Sichuan Center of Technology Innovation for Real World Data, Chengdu, People’s Republic of China
| | - Qiao He
- Institute of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine, Chinese Evidence-Based Medicine Center and Cochrane China Center, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, People’s Republic of China
- NMPA Key Laboratory for Real World Data Research and Evaluation in Hainan, Chengdu, 610041, People’s Republic of China
- Sichuan Center of Technology Innovation for Real World Data, Chengdu, People’s Republic of China
| | - Jiayue Xu
- Institute of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine, Chinese Evidence-Based Medicine Center and Cochrane China Center, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, People’s Republic of China
- NMPA Key Laboratory for Real World Data Research and Evaluation in Hainan, Chengdu, 610041, People’s Republic of China
- Sichuan Center of Technology Innovation for Real World Data, Chengdu, People’s Republic of China
| | - Kang Zou
- Institute of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine, Chinese Evidence-Based Medicine Center and Cochrane China Center, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, People’s Republic of China
- NMPA Key Laboratory for Real World Data Research and Evaluation in Hainan, Chengdu, 610041, People’s Republic of China
- Sichuan Center of Technology Innovation for Real World Data, Chengdu, People’s Republic of China
| | - Yan Kang
- Intensive Care Unit, West China Hospital of Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610041, People’s Republic of China
| | - Xin Sun
- Institute of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine, Chinese Evidence-Based Medicine Center and Cochrane China Center, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, People’s Republic of China
- NMPA Key Laboratory for Real World Data Research and Evaluation in Hainan, Chengdu, 610041, People’s Republic of China
- Sichuan Center of Technology Innovation for Real World Data, Chengdu, People’s Republic of China
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19
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Li M, Han S, Liang F, Hu C, Zhang B, Hou Q, Zhao S. Machine Learning for Predicting Risk and Prognosis of Acute Kidney Disease in Critically Ill Elderly Patients During Hospitalization: Internet-Based and Interpretable Model Study. J Med Internet Res 2024; 26:e51354. [PMID: 38691403 PMCID: PMC11097053 DOI: 10.2196/51354] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/28/2023] [Revised: 01/23/2024] [Accepted: 04/17/2024] [Indexed: 05/03/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Acute kidney disease (AKD) affects more than half of critically ill elderly patients with acute kidney injury (AKI), which leads to worse short-term outcomes. OBJECTIVE We aimed to establish 2 machine learning models to predict the risk and prognosis of AKD in the elderly and to deploy the models as online apps. METHODS Data on elderly patients with AKI (n=3542) and AKD (n=2661) from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV) database were used to develop 2 models for predicting the AKD risk and in-hospital mortality, respectively. Data collected from Xiangya Hospital of Central South University were for external validation. A bootstrap method was used for internal validation to obtain relatively stable results. We extracted the indicators within 24 hours of the first diagnosis of AKI and the fluctuation range of some indicators, namely delta (day 3 after AKI minus day 1), as features. Six machine learning algorithms were used for modeling; the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), decision curve analysis, and calibration curve for evaluating; Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) analysis for visually interpreting; and the Heroku platform for deploying the best-performing models as web-based apps. RESULTS For the model of predicting the risk of AKD in elderly patients with AKI during hospitalization, the Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) showed the best overall performance in the training (AUROC=0.844, 95% CI 0.831-0.857), internal validation (AUROC=0.853, 95% CI 0.841-0.865), and external (AUROC=0.755, 95% CI 0.699-0.811) cohorts. In addition, LightGBM performed well for the AKD prognostic prediction in the training (AUROC=0.861, 95% CI 0.843-0.878), internal validation (AUROC=0.868, 95% CI 0.851-0.885), and external (AUROC=0.746, 95% CI 0.673-0.820) cohorts. The models deployed as online prediction apps allowed users to predict and provide feedback to submit new data for model iteration. In the importance ranking and correlation visualization of the model's top 10 influencing factors conducted based on the SHAP value, partial dependence plots revealed the optimal cutoff of some interventionable indicators. The top 5 factors predicting the risk of AKD were creatinine on day 3, sepsis, delta blood urea nitrogen (BUN), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), and heart rate, while the top 5 factors determining in-hospital mortality were age, BUN on day 1, vasopressor use, BUN on day 3, and partial pressure of carbon dioxide (PaCO2). CONCLUSIONS We developed and validated 2 online apps for predicting the risk of AKD and its prognostic mortality in elderly patients, respectively. The top 10 factors that influenced the AKD risk and mortality during hospitalization were identified and explained visually, which might provide useful applications for intelligent management and suggestions for future prospective research.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mingxia Li
- Department of Critical Care Medicine, Xiangya Hospital of Central South University, Changsha, China
- Department of Critical Care Medicine, ZhuJiang Hospital of Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Shuzhe Han
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, 967th Hospital of the Joint Logistics Support Force of the Chinese People's Liberation Army, Dalian, China
| | - Fang Liang
- Department of Hematology and Critical Care Medicine, The Third Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha, China
| | - Chenghuan Hu
- Department of Critical Care Medicine, Xiangya Hospital of Central South University, Changsha, China
| | - Buyao Zhang
- Department of Critical Care Medicine, Xiangya Hospital of Central South University, Changsha, China
| | - Qinlan Hou
- Department of Critical Care Medicine, Xiangya Hospital of Central South University, Changsha, China
| | - Shuangping Zhao
- Department of Critical Care Medicine, Xiangya Hospital of Central South University, Changsha, China
- National Clinical Research Center for Geriatric Disorders, Changsha, China
- Hunan Provincial Clinical Research Center of Intensive Care Medicine, Changsha, China
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20
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Tenner S, Vege SS, Sheth SG, Sauer B, Yang A, Conwell DL, Yadlapati RH, Gardner TB. American College of Gastroenterology Guidelines: Management of Acute Pancreatitis. Am J Gastroenterol 2024; 119:419-437. [PMID: 38857482 DOI: 10.14309/ajg.0000000000002645] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/08/2023] [Accepted: 12/08/2023] [Indexed: 06/12/2024]
Abstract
Acute pancreatitis (AP), defined as acute inflammation of the pancreas, is one of the most common diseases of the gastrointestinal tract leading to hospital admission in the United States. It is important for clinicians to appreciate that AP is heterogenous, progressing differently among patients and is often unpredictable. While most patients experience symptoms lasting a few days, almost one-fifth of patients will go on to experience complications, including pancreatic necrosis and/or organ failure, at times requiring prolonged hospitalization, intensive care, and radiologic, surgical, and/or endoscopic intervention. Early management is essential to identify and treat patients with AP to prevent complications. Patients with biliary pancreatitis typically will require surgery to prevent recurrent disease and may need early endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography if the disease is complicated by cholangitis. Nutrition plays an important role in treating patients with AP. The safety of early refeeding and importance in preventing complications from AP are addressed. This guideline will provide an evidence-based practical approach to the management of patients with AP.
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Affiliation(s)
- Scott Tenner
- State University of New York, Health Sciences Center, Brooklyn, New York, USA
| | | | - Sunil G Sheth
- Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Bryan Sauer
- University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, USA
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21
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Song Y, Lee SH. Recent Treatment Strategies for Acute Pancreatitis. J Clin Med 2024; 13:978. [PMID: 38398290 PMCID: PMC10889262 DOI: 10.3390/jcm13040978] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/18/2023] [Revised: 01/26/2024] [Accepted: 02/06/2024] [Indexed: 02/25/2024] Open
Abstract
Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a leading gastrointestinal disease that causes hospitalization. Initial management in the first 72 h after the diagnosis of AP is pivotal, which can influence the clinical outcomes of the disease. Initial management, including assessment of disease severity, fluid resuscitation, pain control, nutritional support, antibiotic use, and endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) in gallstone pancreatitis, plays a fundamental role in AP treatment. Recent updates for fluid resuscitation, including treatment goals, the type, rate, volume, and duration, have triggered a paradigm shift from aggressive hydration with normal saline to goal-directed and non-aggressive hydration with lactated Ringer's solution. Evidence of the clinical benefit of early enteral feeding is becoming definitive. The routine use of prophylactic antibiotics is generally limited, and the procalcitonin-based algorithm of antibiotic use has recently been investigated to distinguish between inflammation and infection in patients with AP. Although urgent ERCP (within 24 h) should be performed for patients with gallstone pancreatitis and cholangitis, urgent ERCP is not indicated in patients without cholangitis. The management approach for patients with local complications of AP, particularly those with infected necrotizing pancreatitis, is discussed in detail, including indications, timing, anatomical considerations, and selection of intervention methods. Furthermore, convalescent treatment, including cholecystectomy in gallstone pancreatitis, lipid-lowering medications in hypertriglyceridemia-induced AP, and alcohol intervention in alcoholic pancreatitis, is also important for improving the prognosis and preventing recurrence in patients with AP. This review focuses on recent updates on the initial and convalescent management strategies for AP.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Sang-Hoon Lee
- Department of Internal Medicine, Konkuk University School of Medicine, Seoul 05030, Republic of Korea;
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22
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Wu J, Xiang Z, Gao C, Huang L, Hua J, Tong L, Ling B, Yao Y, Jiang B, Wang D, Li G, Ju F, Jin X, Xu P, Bortolanza M, Jiang C, Chao C, Dong P, Huang F. Genotype 4 HEV infection triggers the initiation and development of acute pancreatitis. Microbes Infect 2023; 25:105190. [PMID: 37499789 DOI: 10.1016/j.micinf.2023.105190] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/04/2023] [Revised: 07/19/2023] [Accepted: 07/21/2023] [Indexed: 07/29/2023]
Abstract
The role of HEV infection in AP remains unclear. 1000 patients with AP and 1000 HCs were enrolled, and pancreatitis was evaluated in HEV-infected rhesus macaques. The positive rates of anti-HEV IgG, IgM, and HEV RNA in the AP patients were significantly higher than HCs. With the increase in the severity of AP, the percentage of HEV infection increased. AP patients were divided into AP- and AP + AHE groups. The percentage of severe AP in the AP + AHE group was significantly higher than in the AP- group. HEV infection was one of the main independent risk factors and had high predictive power for AP outcomes. A high level of HEV titer would prolong the recovery time and increase the risk of recurrent AP. Moreover, AP + AHE patients receiving conservative treatment showed a better prognosis. Furthermore, HEV can replicate in the pancreas of rhesus macaques. The pancreatic islet structure was damaged, the tissue was loose after 272 dpi, and a large amount of hyperemia appeared after 770 dpi. HEV infection also caused a large number of inflammatory cells in the pancreas. The pancreas and liver had a comparable viral load. HEV infection affects AP's occurrence, development, and prognosis.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jian Wu
- Department of Clinical Laboratory, The Affiliated Suzhou Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Suzhou Municipal Hospital, Gusu School, Nanjing Medical University, 242 Guangji Road, Suzhou, 215008, Jiangsu, China
| | - Ze Xiang
- Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, 310009, China
| | - Ce Gao
- Department of Clinical Laboratory, The Affiliated Suzhou Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Suzhou Municipal Hospital, Gusu School, Nanjing Medical University, 242 Guangji Road, Suzhou, 215008, Jiangsu, China
| | - Lan Huang
- Department of Clinical Laboratory, The Affiliated Suzhou Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Suzhou Municipal Hospital, Gusu School, Nanjing Medical University, 242 Guangji Road, Suzhou, 215008, Jiangsu, China
| | - Jingwen Hua
- Jiangsu University School of Medicine, Zhenjiang, Jiangsu, 212000, China
| | - Ling Tong
- Department of Clinical Laboratory, The First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, 79 Qingchun Rd., Hangzhou, 310003, China
| | - Bai Ling
- Department of Pharmacy, The First People's Hospital of Yancheng City, Yancheng, 224005, China
| | - Yiwen Yao
- Department of Internal Medicine V-Pulmonology, Allergology, Respiratory Intensive Care Medicine, Saarland University Hospital, 66424, Homburg, Germany
| | - Bin Jiang
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, The Central Blood Station of Yancheng City, Yancheng, 224000, China
| | - Dawei Wang
- Department of Infectious Diseases, The Second People's Hospital of Yancheng City, Yancheng, 224005, China
| | - Gongqi Li
- Department of Clinical Laboratory, Linyi Traditional Hospital, Linyi, 276003, Shandong, China
| | - Feng Ju
- Department of Clinical Laboratory, The People's Hospital of Jianhu City, Jianhu, 224799, China
| | - Xin Jin
- Department of Clinical Laboratory, Tongde Hospital of Zhejiang Province, Hangzhou City, 310012, China
| | - Ping Xu
- Department of Clinical Laboratory, The Fifth People's Hospital of Suzhou, Suzhou, 215505, China
| | - Mariza Bortolanza
- Department of Internal Medicine V-Pulmonology, Allergology, Respiratory Intensive Care Medicine, Saarland University Hospital, 66424, Homburg, Germany
| | - Chun Jiang
- Department of Clinical Laboratory, The Affiliated Suzhou Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Suzhou Municipal Hospital, Gusu School, Nanjing Medical University, 242 Guangji Road, Suzhou, 215008, Jiangsu, China
| | - Cong Chao
- Medical School, Kunming University of Science and Technology, 727 Jing Ming South Road, Kunming, China
| | - Peng Dong
- Hangzhou Institute of Cardiovascular Diseases, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou, 310015, Zhejiang, China.
| | - Fen Huang
- Medical School, Kunming University of Science and Technology, 727 Jing Ming South Road, Kunming, China.
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23
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Hong WS, Rudas A, Bell EJ, Chiang JN. Association of red blood cell distribution width with hospital admission and in-hospital mortality across all-cause adult emergency department visits. JAMIA Open 2023; 6:ooad053. [PMID: 37501917 PMCID: PMC10368803 DOI: 10.1093/jamiaopen/ooad053] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/26/2023] [Revised: 07/07/2023] [Accepted: 07/12/2023] [Indexed: 07/29/2023] Open
Abstract
Objectives To test the association between the initial red blood cell distribution width (RDW) value in the emergency department (ED) and hospital admission and, among those admitted, in-hospital mortality. Materials and Methods We perform a retrospective analysis of 210 930 adult ED visits with complete blood count results from March 2013 to February 2022. Primary outcomes were hospital admission and in-hospital mortality. Variables for each visit included demographics, comorbidities, vital signs, basic metabolic panel, complete blood count, and final diagnosis. The association of each outcome with the initial RDW value was calculated across 3 age groups (<45, 45-65, and >65) as well as across 374 diagnosis categories. Logistic regression (LR) and XGBoost models using all variables excluding final diagnoses were built to test whether RDW was a highly weighted and informative predictor for each outcome. Finally, simplified models using only age, sex, and vital signs were built to test whether RDW had additive predictive value. Results Compared to that of discharged visits (mean [SD]: 13.8 [2.03]), RDW was significantly elevated in visits that resulted in admission (15.1 [2.72]) and, among admissions, those resulting in intensive care unit stay (15.3 [2.88]) and/or death (16.8 [3.25]). This relationship held across age groups as well as across various diagnosis categories. An RDW >16 achieved 90% specificity for hospital admission, while an RDW >18.5 achieved 90% specificity for in-hospital mortality. LR achieved a test area under the curve (AUC) of 0.77 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.77-0.78) for hospital admission and 0.85 (95% CI 0.81-0.88) for in-hospital mortality, while XGBoost achieved a test AUC of 0.90 (95% CI 0.89-0.90) for hospital admission and 0.96 (95% CI 0.94-0.97) for in-hospital mortality. RDW had high scaled weights and information gain for both outcomes and had additive value in simplified models predicting hospital admission. Discussion Elevated RDW, previously associated with mortality in myocardial infarction, pulmonary embolism, heart failure, sepsis, and COVID-19, is associated with hospital admission and in-hospital mortality across all-cause adult ED visits. Used alone, elevated RDW may be a specific, but not sensitive, test for both outcomes, with multivariate LR and XGBoost models showing significantly improved test characteristics. Conclusions RDW, a component of the complete blood count panel routinely ordered as the initial workup for the undifferentiated patient, may be a generalizable biomarker for acuity in the ED.
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Affiliation(s)
- Woo Suk Hong
- Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California Los Angeles David Geffen School of Medicine, Los Angeles, California, USA
| | - Akos Rudas
- Department of Computational Medicine, University of California Los Angeles David Geffen School of Medicine, Los Angeles, California, USA
| | - Elijah J Bell
- Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California Los Angeles David Geffen School of Medicine, Los Angeles, California, USA
| | - Jeffrey N Chiang
- Corresponding Author: Jeffrey N. Chiang, PhD, Department of Computational Medicine, University of California Los Angeles David Geffen School of Medicine, 621 Charles E Young Dr S, Room 5217 Life Sciences Bldg., Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA;
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24
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Yang AL, Vege SS. Fluid resuscitation in acute pancreatitis. Curr Opin Gastroenterol 2023:00001574-990000000-00086. [PMID: 37421393 DOI: 10.1097/mog.0000000000000959] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 07/10/2023]
Abstract
PURPOSE OF REVIEW The purpose of the review is to critically evaluate the evidence from the literature to establish the current perspective on fluid resuscitation (FR) in acute pancreatitis (AP). We will review the rationale, type of fluid, rate of administration, total volume, duration, monitoring, ideal outcomes to be studied in clinical trials and recommendations for future studies. RECENT FINDINGS FR remains the key component of supportive therapy in AP. The paradigm has shifted from administration of aggressive fluid resuscitation towards more moderate FR strategies. Lactated Ringer's remains the preferred fluid for resuscitation. There remain critical gaps in knowledge regarding the end point(s) to indicate adequate resuscitation, and accurate assessments of fluid sequestration and intravascular volume deficit in AP. SUMMARY There is insufficient evidence to state that goal-directed therapy, using any of the parameters to guide fluid administration, reduces the risk of persistent organ failure, infected pancreatic necrosis, or mortality in AP, as well as the most appropriate method for the same.
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Affiliation(s)
- Allison L Yang
- Division of Gastroenterology & Hepatology, Weill Cornell Medicine, New York, New York
| | - Santhi Swaroop Vege
- Division of Gastroenterology & Hepatology, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minnesota, USA
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25
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Zou K, Huang S, Ren W, Xu H, Zhang W, Shi X, Shi L, Zhong X, Peng Y, Lü M, Tang X. Development and Validation of a Dynamic Nomogram for Predicting in-Hospital Mortality in Patients with Acute Pancreatitis: A Retrospective Cohort Study in the Intensive Care Unit. Int J Gen Med 2023; 16:2541-2553. [PMID: 37351008 PMCID: PMC10284301 DOI: 10.2147/ijgm.s409812] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/28/2023] [Accepted: 06/04/2023] [Indexed: 06/24/2023] Open
Abstract
PURPOSE The aim of this study is to develop and validate a predictive model for the prediction of in-hospital mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) based on the intensive care database. PATIENTS AND METHODS We analyzed the data of patients with AP in the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-IV (MIMIC-IV) database and Electronic Intensive Care Unit Collaborative Research Database (eICU-CRD). Then, patients from MIMIC-IV were divided into a development group and a validation group according to the ratio of 8:2, and eICU-CRD was assigned as an external validation group. Univariate logistic regression and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression were used for screening the best predictors, and multivariate logistic regression was used to establish a dynamic nomogram. We evaluated the discrimination, calibration, and clinical efficacy of the nomogram, and compared the performance of the nomogram with Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE-II) score and Bedside Index of Severity in AP (BISAP) score. RESULTS A total of 1030 and 514 patients with AP in MIMIC-IV database and eICU-CRD were included in the study. After stepwise analysis, 8 out of a total of 37 variables were selected to construct the nomogram. The dynamic nomogram can be obtained by visiting https://model.sci-inn.com/KangZou/. The area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the nomogram was 0.859, 0.871, and 0.847 in the development, internal, and external validation set respectively. The nomogram had a similar performance with APACHE-II (AUC = 0.841, p = 0.537) but performed better than BISAP (AUC = 0.690, p = 0.001) score in the validation group. Moreover, the calibration curve presented a satisfactory predictive accuracy, and the decision curve analysis suggested great clinical application value of the nomogram. CONCLUSION Based on the results of internal and external validation, the nomogram showed favorable discrimination, calibration, and clinical practicability in predicting the in-hospital mortality of patients with AP.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kang Zou
- Department of Gastroenterology, the Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, People’s Republic of China
- Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Luzhou, People’s Republic of China
| | - Shu Huang
- Department of Gastroenterology, Lianshui County People’ Hospital, Huaian, People’s Republic of China
- Department of Gastroenterology, Lianshui People’ Hospital of Kangda College Affiliated to Nanjing Medical University, Huaian, People’s Republic of China
| | - Wensen Ren
- Department of Gastroenterology, the Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, People’s Republic of China
- Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Luzhou, People’s Republic of China
| | - Huan Xu
- Department of Gastroenterology, the Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, People’s Republic of China
- Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Luzhou, People’s Republic of China
| | - Wei Zhang
- Department of Gastroenterology, the Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, People’s Republic of China
- Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Luzhou, People’s Republic of China
| | - Xiaomin Shi
- Department of Gastroenterology, the Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, People’s Republic of China
- Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Luzhou, People’s Republic of China
| | - Lei Shi
- Department of Gastroenterology, the Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, People’s Republic of China
- Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Luzhou, People’s Republic of China
| | - Xiaolin Zhong
- Department of Gastroenterology, the Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, People’s Republic of China
- Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Luzhou, People’s Republic of China
| | - Yan Peng
- Department of Gastroenterology, the Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, People’s Republic of China
- Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Luzhou, People’s Republic of China
| | - Muhan Lü
- Department of Gastroenterology, the Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, People’s Republic of China
- Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Luzhou, People’s Republic of China
| | - Xiaowei Tang
- Department of Gastroenterology, the Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, People’s Republic of China
- Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Luzhou, People’s Republic of China
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Xu H, Wan J, He W, Zhu Y, Zeng H, Liu P, Liu J, Xia L, Liu F, Zhu Y, Chen Y, Lu N. Albumin infusion may decrease the mortality of hypoalbuminemia patients with severe acute pancreatitis: a retrospective cohort study. BMC Gastroenterol 2023; 23:195. [PMID: 37277756 DOI: 10.1186/s12876-023-02801-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/02/2022] [Accepted: 05/04/2023] [Indexed: 06/07/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND At present, the relationship between severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) and albumin infusion is not clear. We aimed to identify the impact of serum albumin on the prognosis of SAP and the association between albumin infusions and mortality for hypoalbuminemia patients. METHODS This was a retrospective cohort study that analyzed 1000 patients with SAP who were admitted to the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University between January 2010 and December 2021 using data from a prospectively maintained database. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was conducted to reveal the relationship between serum albumin within 1 week after admission and poor prognosis of SAP. Propensity score matching (PSM) analysis was adopted to evaluate the effect of albumin infusion for hypoalbuminemia patients with SAP. RESULTS The prevalence of hypoalbuminemia (≤ 30 g/L) was 56.9% within 1 week after admission. Multivariate logistic regression identified that age (OR: 1.02; 95% CI: 1.00-1.04; P = 0.012), serum urea (OR: 1.08; 95% CI: 1.04-1.12; P < 0.001), serum calcium (OR: 0.27; 95% CI: 0.14-0.50; P < 0.001), lowest albumin level within 1 week after admission (OR: 0.93; 95% CI: 0.89-0.97; P = 0.002), and APACHE II score ≥ 15 (OR: 1.73; 95% CI: 1.19-2.51; P = 0.004) were independently associated with mortality. The PSM analysis demonstrated that mortality (OR: 0.52, 95% CI: 0.29-0.92, P = 0.023) was less common in albumin-infused than non-albumin-infused hypoalbuminemia patients. In subgroup analyses, doses > 100 g within 1 week after admission for hypoalbuminemia patients with albumin infusions was associated with lower mortality than doses ≤ 100 g (OR: 0.51, 95% CI: 0.28-0.90, P = 0.020). CONCLUSIONS Hypoalbuminemia in early-stage SAP is significantly related to poor prognosis. However, albumin infusions could significantly decrease mortality in hypoalbuminemia patients with SAP. Additionally, infusing sufficient albumin within a week after admission may decrease mortality in hypoalbuminemia patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Huiting Xu
- Department of Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, 17 Yongwaizheng Street, Nanchang, 330006, Jiangxi, PR China
| | - Jianhua Wan
- Department of Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, 17 Yongwaizheng Street, Nanchang, 330006, Jiangxi, PR China
| | - Wenhua He
- Department of Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, 17 Yongwaizheng Street, Nanchang, 330006, Jiangxi, PR China
| | - Yong Zhu
- Department of Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, 17 Yongwaizheng Street, Nanchang, 330006, Jiangxi, PR China
| | - Hao Zeng
- Department of Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, 17 Yongwaizheng Street, Nanchang, 330006, Jiangxi, PR China
| | - Pi Liu
- Department of Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, 17 Yongwaizheng Street, Nanchang, 330006, Jiangxi, PR China
| | - Jing Liu
- Department of Pharmacy, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang, PR China
| | - Liang Xia
- Department of Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, 17 Yongwaizheng Street, Nanchang, 330006, Jiangxi, PR China.
| | - Fen Liu
- Department of Intensive Care Unit, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang, PR China
| | - Yin Zhu
- Department of Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, 17 Yongwaizheng Street, Nanchang, 330006, Jiangxi, PR China
| | - Youxiang Chen
- Department of Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, 17 Yongwaizheng Street, Nanchang, 330006, Jiangxi, PR China
| | - Nonghua Lu
- Department of Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, 17 Yongwaizheng Street, Nanchang, 330006, Jiangxi, PR China
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Yuan L, Shen L, Ji M, Wen X, Wang S, Huang P, Li Y, Xu J. A New Risk Score to Predict Intensive Care Unit Admission for Patients with Acute Pancreatitis 48 Hours After Admission: Multicenter Study. Dig Dis Sci 2023; 68:2069-2079. [PMID: 36462125 DOI: 10.1007/s10620-022-07768-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/02/2022] [Accepted: 11/11/2022] [Indexed: 12/04/2022]
Abstract
AIMS The objective of this study was to develop and validate an easy-to-use risk score (APRS) to predict which patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) will need intensive care unit (ICU) treatment within 48 h post-hospitalization on the basis of the ubiquitously available clinical records. METHODS Patients with acute pancreatitis were retrospectively included from three independent institutions (RM cohort, 5280; TJ cohort, 262; SN cohort, 196), with 56 candidate variables collected within 48 h post-hospitalization. The RM cohort was randomly divided into a training set (N = 4220) and a test set (N = 1060). The most predictive features were extracted by LASSO from the RM cohort and entered into multivariate analysis. APRS was constructed using the coefficients of the statistically significant variables weighted by the multivariable logistic regression model. The APRS was validated by RM, TJ, and SN cohorts. The C-statistic was employed to evaluate the APRS's discrimination. DeLong test was used to compare area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) differences. RESULTS A total of 5738 patients with AP were enrolled. Eleven variables were selected by LASSO and entered into multivariate analysis. APRS was inferred using the above five factors (pleural effusion, ALT/AST, ALB/GLB, urea, and glucose) weighted by their regression coefficients in the multivariable logistic regression model. The C-statistics of APRS were 0.905 (95% CI 0.82-0.98) and 0.889 (95% CI 0.81-0.96) in RM and TJ validation. An online APRS web-based calculator was constructed to assist the clinician to earlier assess the clinical outcomes of patients with AP. CONCLUSION APRS could effectively stratify patients with AP into high and low risk of ICU admission within 48 h post-hospitalization, offering clinical value in directing management and personalize therapeutic selection for patients with AP.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lei Yuan
- School of Automation, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China
- Department of Information Center, Wuhan University Renmin Hospital, Wuhan, Hubei, China
- Institute for AI in Medicine, School of Artificial Intelligence, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China
- Key Laboratory of Hubei Province for Digestive System Disease, Wuhan University Renmin Hospital, Wuhan, Hubei, China
| | - Lei Shen
- Department of Gastroenterology, Wuhan University Renmin Hospital, Wuhan, Hubei, China
- Key Laboratory of Hubei Province for Digestive System Disease, Wuhan University Renmin Hospital, Wuhan, Hubei, China
| | - Mengyao Ji
- Department of Gastroenterology, Wuhan University Renmin Hospital, Wuhan, Hubei, China
- Key Laboratory of Hubei Province for Digestive System Disease, Wuhan University Renmin Hospital, Wuhan, Hubei, China
| | - Xinyu Wen
- Department of Gastroenterology, Wuhan University Renmin Hospital, Wuhan, Hubei, China
| | - Shuo Wang
- Department of Gastroenterology, Wuhan University Renmin Hospital, Wuhan, Hubei, China
| | - Pingxiao Huang
- Department of Gastroenterology, The Central Hospital of Wuhan, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, Hubei, China
| | - Yong Li
- Suining Central Hospital, Suining, Sichuan, China
| | - Jun Xu
- Institute for AI in Medicine, School of Artificial Intelligence, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China.
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Garcia Borobia F, Flores Clotet R, Bejarano Gonzalez N, Gonzalez Martinez S, Garcia Monforte N, Romaguera Monzonis A, Gonzalez Abos C, Gonzalez Abos S, Lucas Guerrero V, Perez Perarnau A, Mota Villaplana F. Predictive Value of Antithrombin III and d -Dimer in the Development of Moderate-To-Severe Acute Pancreatitis : A Prospective, Observational Study (AT-PROPANC). Pancreas 2023; 52:e241-e248. [PMID: 37801622 DOI: 10.1097/mpa.0000000000002245] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/08/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To analyze if antithrombin III (AT-III) and d -dimer levels at admission and at 24 hours can predict acute pancreatitis (AP) progression to moderately severe AP (MSAP) to severe AP (SAP) and to determine their predictive value on the development of necrosis, infected necrosis, organ failure, and mortality. METHODS Prospective observational study conducted in patients with mild AP in 2 tertiary hospitals (2015-2017). RESULTS Three hundred forty-six patients with mild AP were included. Forty-four patients (12.7%) evolved to MSAP/SAP. Necrosis was detected in 36 patients (10.4%); in 10 (2.9%), infection was confirmed. Organ failure was recorded in 9 patients (2.6%), all of whom died. Those who progressed to MSAP/SAP showed lower AT-III levels; d -dimer and C-reactive protein (CRP) levels increased. The best individual marker for MSAP/SAP at 24 hours is CRP (area under the curve [AUC], 0.839). Antithrombin III (AUC, 0.641), d -dimer (AUC, 0.783), and creatinine added no benefit compared with CRP alone. Similar results were observed for patients who progressed to necrosis, infected necrosis, and organ failure/death. CONCLUSION Low AT-III and high d -dimer plasma levels at 24 hours after admission were significantly associated with MSAP/SAP, although their predictive ability was low. C-reactive protein was the best marker tested. CLINICAL STUDY IDENTIFIER ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02373293.
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Affiliation(s)
- Francisco Garcia Borobia
- From the Department of General Surgery, Hepatobiliopancreatic Surgical Unit, Parc Taulí Hospital Universitari, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Sabadell
| | - Roser Flores Clotet
- From the Department of General Surgery, Hepatobiliopancreatic Surgical Unit, Parc Taulí Hospital Universitari, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Sabadell
| | - Natalia Bejarano Gonzalez
- From the Department of General Surgery, Hepatobiliopancreatic Surgical Unit, Parc Taulí Hospital Universitari, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Sabadell
| | | | - Neus Garcia Monforte
- From the Department of General Surgery, Hepatobiliopancreatic Surgical Unit, Parc Taulí Hospital Universitari, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Sabadell
| | - Andreu Romaguera Monzonis
- From the Department of General Surgery, Hepatobiliopancreatic Surgical Unit, Parc Taulí Hospital Universitari, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Sabadell
| | | | - Sandra Gonzalez Abos
- Department of General Surgery, Consorci Sanitari Integral, L'Hospitalet de Llobregat
| | - Victoria Lucas Guerrero
- From the Department of General Surgery, Hepatobiliopancreatic Surgical Unit, Parc Taulí Hospital Universitari, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Sabadell
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Li XW, Wang CH, Dai JW, Tsao SH, Wang PH, Tai CC, Chien RN, Shao SC, Lai ECC. Comparison of clinical outcomes between aggressive and non-aggressive intravenous hydration for acute pancreatitis: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Crit Care 2023; 27:122. [PMID: 36949459 PMCID: PMC10035244 DOI: 10.1186/s13054-023-04401-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/10/2023] [Accepted: 03/12/2023] [Indexed: 03/24/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Current practice guidelines for optimal infusion rates during early intravenous hydration in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) remain inconsistent. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to compare treatment outcomes between aggressive and non-aggressive intravenous hydration in severe and non-severe AP. METHODS This study followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. We systematically searched PubMed, Embase and Cochrane Library for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) on November 23, 2022, and hand-searched the reference lists of included RCTs, relevant review articles and clinical guidelines. We included RCTs that compared clinical outcomes from aggressive and non-aggressive intravenous hydration in AP. Meta-analysis was performed using a random-effects model for participants with severe AP and non-severe AP. Our primary outcome was all-cause mortality, and several secondary outcomes included fluid-related complications, clinical improvement and APACHE II scores within 48 h. RESULTS We included a total of 9 RCTs with 953 participants. The meta-analysis indicated that, compared to non-aggressive intravenous hydration, aggressive intravenous hydration significantly increased mortality risk in severe AP (pooled RR: 2.45, 95% CI: 1.37, 4.40), while the result in non-severe AP was inconclusive (pooled RR: 2.26, 95% CI: 0.54, 9.44). However, aggressive intravenous hydration significantly increased fluid-related complication risk in both severe (pooled RR: 2.22, 95% CI 1.36, 3.63) and non-severe AP (pooled RR: 3.25, 95% CI: 1.53, 6.93). The meta-analysis indicated worse APACHE II scores (pooled mean difference: 3.31, 95% CI: 1.79, 4.84) in severe AP, and no increased likelihood of clinical improvement (pooled RR:1.20, 95% CI: 0.63, 2.29) in non-severe AP. Sensitivity analyses including only RCTs with goal-directed fluid therapy after initial fluid resuscitation therapy yielded consistent results. CONCLUSIONS Aggressive intravenous hydration increased the mortality risk in severe AP, and fluid-related complication risk in both severe and non-severe AP. More conservative intravenous fluid resuscitation protocols for AP are suggested.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiu-Wei Li
- Division of Hepatogastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, Keelung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Keelung, Taiwan
- College of Medicine, Chang Gung University, Taoyuan, Taiwan
| | - Chien-Ho Wang
- College of Medicine, Chang Gung University, Taoyuan, Taiwan
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Keelung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Keelung, Taiwan
| | - Jhih-Wei Dai
- College of Medicine, Chang Gung University, Taoyuan, Taiwan
- Department of Cardiology, Keelung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Keelung, Taiwan
| | - Shu-Han Tsao
- College of Medicine, Chang Gung University, Taoyuan, Taiwan
- Department of Urology, Linkou Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Taoyuan, Taiwan
| | - Po-Hsi Wang
- Department of Nephrology, Keelung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Keelung, Taiwan
| | - Cheng-Chen Tai
- Medical Library, Department of Medical Education, Linkou Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Taoyuan, Taiwan
| | - Rong-Nan Chien
- Division of Hepatogastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, Keelung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Keelung, Taiwan
- College of Medicine, Chang Gung University, Taoyuan, Taiwan
- Division of Hepatogastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, Linkou Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Taoyuan, Taiwan
| | - Shih-Chieh Shao
- Department of Pharmacy, Keelung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Keelung, Taiwan.
- Center for Evidence-Based Medicine, Keelung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Keelung, Taiwan.
- School of Pharmacy, Institute of Clinical Pharmacy and Pharmaceutical Sciences, College of Medicine, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan.
| | - Edward Chia-Cheng Lai
- School of Pharmacy, Institute of Clinical Pharmacy and Pharmaceutical Sciences, College of Medicine, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan
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Early prediction of the severe course, survival, and ICU requirements in acute pancreatitis by artificial intelligence. Pancreatology 2023; 23:176-186. [PMID: 36610872 DOI: 10.1016/j.pan.2022.12.005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/07/2022] [Revised: 11/20/2022] [Accepted: 12/12/2022] [Indexed: 01/09/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To evaluate the success of artificial intelligence for early prediction of severe course, survival, and intensive care unit(ICU) requirement in patients with acute pancreatitis(AP). METHODS Retrospectively, 1334 patients were included the study. Severity is determined according to the Revised Atlanta Classification(RAC). The success of machine learning(ML) method was evaluated by 13 simple demographic, clinical, etiologic, and laboratory features obtained on ER admission. Additionally, it was evaluated whether Balthazar-computerized tomography severity index(CTSI) at 48-h contributed to success. The dataset was split into two parts, 90% for ML(of which 70% for learning and 30% for testing) and 10% for validation and 5-fold stratified sampling has been utilized. Variable Importance was used in the selection of features during training phase of machine. The Gradient Boost Algorithm trained the machine by KNIME analytics platform. SMOTE has been applied to increase the minority classes for training. The combined effects of the measured features were examined by multivariate logistic regression analysis and reciever operating curve curves of the prediction and confidence of the target variables were obtained. RESULTS Accuracy values for the early estimation of Atlanta severity score, ICU requirement, and survival were found as 88.20%, 98.25%, and 92.77% respectively. When Balthazar-CTSI score is used, results were found as 91.02%, 92.25%, and 98% respectively. CONCLUSIONS The ML method we used successfully predicted the severe course, ICU requirement and survival, with promising accuracy values of over 88%. If 48-h Balthazar-CTSI is included in the calculation, the severity score and survival rates increase even more.
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Cai YL, Wang SQ, Zhong HJ, He XX. The effect of anemia on the severity and prognosis of patients with acute pancreatitis: A single-center retrospective study. Medicine (Baltimore) 2022; 101:e32501. [PMID: 36596024 PMCID: PMC9803478 DOI: 10.1097/md.0000000000032501] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/06/2022] [Accepted: 12/08/2022] [Indexed: 12/31/2022] Open
Abstract
Anemia was a risk factor for a worse prognosis of many diseases. This study aims to investigate the relationship between anemia and the severity and prognosis of acute pancreatitis (AP). Inpatients hospitalized at the First Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Pharmaceutical University with a primary diagnosis of AP between 1st July 2016 to 31st December 2020 were enrolled. Subsequently, disease severity, the incidence of complications, and the prognosis of patients with AP were compared between the anemic group and the non-anemic group. A total of 282 patients with acute pancreatitis were enrolled; 68.43% of them were also diagnosed with anemia. Notably, these patients had more severe disease (higher RANSON, acute physiologic assessment and chronic health evaluation-II, bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis, and multiple organ dysfunction syndrome scores); higher incidence of organ failure (acute kidney injury [AKI] and acute heart failure); worse prognosis (higher incidence of vasoactive and diuretic agent use, longer hospital stays, and higher hospital costs) compared to that of patients without anemia (all P < .05). After adjusting for potential confounders, acute physiologic assessment and chronic health evaluation-II, bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis, multiple organ dysfunction syndrome scores, hospital stay, and hospital costs in anemic patients were higher than those in non-anemic patients; besides, the incidence of AKI and using a diuretic agent in anemic patients was 6.645 and 4.053 times that of non-anemic patients in AP, respectively (all P < .05). Acute pancreatitis patients with anemia have more disease severity, higher incidence of AKI, and worse prognosis compared to those without anemia.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ying-Li Cai
- Department of Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Pharmaceutical University, Guangzhou, China
- Department of Endoscope Center, Jiangmen Central Hospital, Jiangmen, Guangdong, China
| | - Si-Qi Wang
- Department of Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Pharmaceutical University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Hao-Jie Zhong
- Department of Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Pharmaceutical University, Guangzhou, China
- Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Microbial Safety and Health, State Key Laboratory of Applied Microbiology Southern China, Guangdong Institute of Microbiology, Guangdong Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, China
| | - Xing-Xiang He
- Department of Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Pharmaceutical University, Guangzhou, China
- * Correspondence: Xing-Xiang He, Department of Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Pharmaceutical University, Guangzhou, Guangdong Province, China (e-mail: )
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Lee DW, Kim HG, Cho CM, Jung MK, Heo J, Cho KB, Kim SB, Kim KH, Kim TN, Han J, Kim H. Natural Course of Early Detected Acute Peripancreatic Fluid Collection in Moderately Severe or Severe Acute Pancreatitis. MEDICINA (KAUNAS, LITHUANIA) 2022; 58:medicina58081131. [PMID: 36013598 PMCID: PMC9415644 DOI: 10.3390/medicina58081131] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/28/2022] [Revised: 08/11/2022] [Accepted: 08/17/2022] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Background and Objectives: Acute peripancreatic fluid collection (APFC) is an acute local complication of acute pancreatitis (AP) according to the revised Atlanta classification. Sometimes APFC resolves completely, sometimes it changes into a pseudocyst or walled-off necrosis (WON), so called late complications. The aim of this study is to investigate the natural course of APFC detected on early computed tomography (CT) in moderately severe (MSAP) or severe AP (SAP). Materials and Methods: From October 2014 to September 2015, patients with MSAP or SAP were enrolled if there was APFC within 48 h of onset on imaging studies at six medical centers. The status of fluid collection was followed 4–8 weeks after onset. Initial laboratory findings, CT findings and clinical scoring systems were analyzed. Results: A total of 68 patients were enrolled and APFC was completely resolved in 32 (66.7%) patients in the MSAP group and 9 (34.6%) in the SAP group. Patients with a high bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP) score (≥3 points) were common in the SAP group. C-reactive protein (CRP) after 48 h from admission and BUN level were also high in the SAP group. In multivariate analysis, BISAP score (≥3 points), elevation of CRP after 48 h (≥150 mg/L) and nasojejunal feeding after 48 h were risk factors for the development of late complications. Conclusions: Spontaneous resolution of APFC was more common in MSAP group and APFC can be changed to pseudocyst or WON in patients with elevated BISAP score, CRP level after 48 h, and non-improved abdominal pain.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dong Wook Lee
- Department of Internal Medicine, School of Medicine, Kyungpook National University, Daegu 41944, Korea
| | - Ho Gak Kim
- Department of Internal Medicine, Daegu Catholic University School of Medicine, Daegu 42472, Korea
- Correspondence:
| | - Chang Min Cho
- Department of Internal Medicine, School of Medicine, Kyungpook National University, Daegu 41944, Korea
| | - Min Kyu Jung
- Department of Internal Medicine, School of Medicine, Kyungpook National University, Daegu 41944, Korea
| | - Jun Heo
- Department of Internal Medicine, School of Medicine, Kyungpook National University, Daegu 41944, Korea
| | - Kwang Bum Cho
- Department of Internal Medicine, Keimyung University School of Medicine, Daegu 42601, Korea
| | - Sung Bum Kim
- Department of Internal Medicine, Yeungnam University College of Medicine, Daegu 42415, Korea
| | - Kook Hyun Kim
- Department of Internal Medicine, Yeungnam University College of Medicine, Daegu 42415, Korea
| | - Tae Nyeun Kim
- Department of Internal Medicine, Yeungnam University College of Medicine, Daegu 42415, Korea
| | - Jimin Han
- Department of Internal Medicine, Daegu Catholic University School of Medicine, Daegu 42472, Korea
| | - Hyunsoo Kim
- Department of Internal Medicine, Daegu Fatima Hospital, Daegu 41199, Korea
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Fürschuß L, Rainer F, Effenberger M, Niederreiter M, Portugaller RH, Horvath A, Fickert P, Stadlbauer V. A novel score predicts mortality after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt: MOTS - Modified TIPS Score. Liver Int 2022; 42:1849-1860. [PMID: 35261130 PMCID: PMC9539997 DOI: 10.1111/liv.15236] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/25/2021] [Revised: 02/04/2022] [Accepted: 03/02/2022] [Indexed: 02/13/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS The high risk for severe shunting-related post-interventional complications demands a stringent selection of candidates for transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS). We aimed to develop a simple and reliable tool to accurately predict early post-TIPS mortality. METHODS 144 cases of TIPS implantation were retrospectively analysed. Using univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis of factors predicting mortality within 90 days after TIPS, a score integrating urea, international normalized ratio (INR) and bilirubin was developed. The Modified TIPS-Score (MOTS) ranges from 0 to 3 points: INR >1.6, urea >71 mg/dl and bilirubin >2.2 mg/dl account for one point each. Additionally, MOTS was tested in an external validation cohort (n = 187) and its performance was compared to existing models. RESULTS Modified TIPS-Score achieved a significant prognostic discrimination reflected by 90-day mortality of 8% in patients with MOTS 0-1 and 60% in patients with MOTS 2-3 (p < .001). Predictive performance (area under the curve) of MOTS was accurate (c = 0.845 [0.73-0.96], p < .001), also in patients with renal insufficiency (c = 0.830 [0.64-1.00], p = .02) and in patients with refractory ascites (c = 0.949 [0.88-1.00], p < .001), which are subgroups with particular room for improvement of post-TIPS mortality prediction. The results were reproducible in the validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS Modified TIPS-Score is a novel, practicable tool to predict post-TIPS mortality, that can significantly simplify clinical decision making. Its practical applicability should be further investigated.
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Affiliation(s)
- Luisa Fürschuß
- Department of Internal Medicine, Research Unit "Transplantation Research", Medical University of Graz, Graz, Austria
| | - Florian Rainer
- Department of Internal Medicine, Research Unit "Transplantation Research", Medical University of Graz, Graz, Austria
| | - Maria Effenberger
- Department of Internal Medicine I, Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Endocrinology & Metabolism, Medical University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria
| | - Markus Niederreiter
- Department of Internal Medicine I, Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Endocrinology & Metabolism, Medical University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria
| | - Rupert H Portugaller
- Division of Vascular and Interventional Radiology, Department of Radiology, Medical University of Graz, Graz, Austria
| | - Angela Horvath
- Department of Internal Medicine, Research Unit "Transplantation Research", Medical University of Graz, Graz, Austria
- Centre for Biomarker Research in Medicine (CBmed), Graz, Austria
| | - Peter Fickert
- Department of Internal Medicine, Research Unit "Transplantation Research", Medical University of Graz, Graz, Austria
| | - Vanessa Stadlbauer
- Department of Internal Medicine, Research Unit "Transplantation Research", Medical University of Graz, Graz, Austria
- Centre for Biomarker Research in Medicine (CBmed), Graz, Austria
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Lactated Ringers Does Not Reduce SIRS in Acute Pancreatitis Compared to Normal Saline: An Updated Meta-Analysis. Dig Dis Sci 2022; 67:3265-3274. [PMID: 34328591 DOI: 10.1007/s10620-021-07153-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/16/2021] [Accepted: 07/02/2021] [Indexed: 02/06/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND We aimed to compare outcomes according to a Lactated Ringers (LR) versus Normal Saline (NS)-based strategy for acute pancreatitis. METHODS A database search through November 2020 was done to identify studies comparing LR to NS for fluid rehydration in AP. The primary endpoint was systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) at 24 h. Mantel-Haenszel pooled odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals were constructed using a random effects model. Heterogeneity was assessed using the I2 statistic. Publication bias was assessed using funnel plots. RESULTS Six studies were included totaling 549 patients. No difference in the odds of developing SIRS was noted at 24 h (pooled OR 0.59, 95% CI 0.22-1.62, P = 0.31) between LR and NS. I2 indices showed low heterogeneity between the groups, and a funnel plot showed no obvious publication bias. There was no difference between LR and NS found for SIRS at 48 and 72 h, mortality, and other secondary outcomes. LR was associated with a decreased need for ICU admission. CONCLUSIONS This updated meta-analysis does not support the previously published finding that the use of LR (rather than NS) leads to a statistically significant decreased odds of SIRS in acute pancreatitis.
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Lee DW, Cho CM. Predicting Severity of Acute Pancreatitis. MEDICINA (KAUNAS, LITHUANIA) 2022; 58:medicina58060787. [PMID: 35744050 PMCID: PMC9227091 DOI: 10.3390/medicina58060787] [Citation(s) in RCA: 28] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/24/2022] [Revised: 06/02/2022] [Accepted: 06/08/2022] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Acute pancreatitis has a diverse etiology and natural history, and some patients have severe complications with a high risk of mortality. The prediction of the severity of acute pancreatitis should be achieved by a careful ongoing clinical assessment coupled with the use of a multiple-factor scoring system and imaging studies. Over the past 40 years, various scoring systems have been suggested to predict the severity of acute pancreatitis. However, there is no definite and ideal scoring system with a high sensitivity and specificity. The interest in new biological markers and predictive models for identifying severe acute pancreatitis testifies to the continued clinical importance of early severity prediction. Although contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CT) is considered the gold standard for diagnosing pancreatic necrosis, early scanning for the prediction of severity is limited because the full extent of pancreatic necrosis may not develop within the first 48 h of presentation. This article provides an overview of the available scoring systems and biochemical markers for predicting severe acute pancreatitis, with a focus on their characteristics and limitations.
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Li YL, Zhang DD, Xiong YY, Wang RF, Gao XM, Gong H, Zheng SC, Wu D. Development and external validation of models to predict acute respiratory distress syndrome related to severe acute pancreatitis. World J Gastroenterol 2022; 28:2123-2136. [PMID: 35664037 PMCID: PMC9134137 DOI: 10.3748/wjg.v28.i19.2123] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/04/2021] [Revised: 02/09/2022] [Accepted: 04/04/2022] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is a major cause of death in patients with severe acute pancreatitis (SAP). Although a series of prediction models have been developed for early identification of such patients, the majority are complicated or lack validation. A simpler and more credible model is required for clinical practice.
AIM To develop and validate a predictive model for SAP related ARDS.
METHODS Patients diagnosed with AP from four hospitals located at different regions of China were retrospectively grouped into derivation and validation cohorts. Statistically significant variables were identified using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression method. Predictive models with nomograms were further built using multiple logistic regression analysis with these picked predictors. The discriminatory power of new models was compared with some common models. The performance of calibration ability and clinical utility of the predictive models were evaluated.
RESULTS Out of 597 patients with AP, 139 were diagnosed with SAP (80 in derivation cohort and 59 in validation cohort) and 99 with ARDS (62 in derivation cohort and 37 in validation cohort). Four identical variables were identified as independent risk factors for both SAP and ARDS: heart rate [odds ratio (OR) = 1.05; 95%CI: 1.04-1.07; P < 0.001; OR = 1.05, 95%CI: 1.03-1.07, P < 0.001], respiratory rate (OR = 1.08, 95%CI: 1.0-1.17, P = 0.047; OR = 1.10, 95%CI: 1.02-1.19, P = 0.014), serum calcium concentration (OR = 0.26, 95%CI: 0.09-0.73, P = 0.011; OR = 0.17, 95%CI: 0.06-0.48, P = 0.001) and blood urea nitrogen (OR = 1.15, 95%CI: 1.09-1.23, P < 0.001; OR = 1.12, 95%CI: 1.05-1.19, P < 0.001). The area under receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.879 (95%CI: 0.830-0.928) and 0.898 (95%CI: 0.848-0.949) for SAP prediction in derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. This value was 0.892 (95%CI: 0.843-0.941) and 0.833 (95%CI: 0.754-0.912) for ARDS prediction, respectively. The discriminatory power of our models was improved compared with that of other widely used models and the calibration ability and clinical utility of the prediction models performed adequately.
CONCLUSION The present study constructed and validated a simple and accurate predictive model for SAP-related ARDS in patients with AP.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yun-Long Li
- Department of Gastroenterology, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Beijing 100730, China
| | - Ding-Ding Zhang
- Medical Research Center, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Beijing 100730, China
- Clinical Epidemiology Unit, International Clinical Epidemiology Network, Beijing 100730, China
| | - Yang-Yang Xiong
- Department of Gastroenterology, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Beijing 100730, China
- Department of Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou 310003, Zhejiang Province, China
| | - Rui-Feng Wang
- Department of Gastroenterology, The Fourth Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University, Harbin 150001, Heilongjiang Province, China
| | - Xiao-Mao Gao
- Department of Gastroenterology, The Sixth Hospital of Beijing, Beijing 100191, China
| | - Hui Gong
- Department of Gastroenterology, West China Longquan Hospital Sichuan University, Chengdu 610100, Sichuan Province, China
| | - Shi-Cheng Zheng
- Department of Gastroenterology, West China Longquan Hospital Sichuan University, Chengdu 610100, Sichuan Province, China
| | - Dong Wu
- Department of Gastroenterology, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Beijing 100730, China
- Clinical Epidemiology Unit, International Clinical Epidemiology Network, Beijing 100730, China
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Blood Urea Nitrogen as a Prognostic Marker in Severe Acute Pancreatitis. DISEASE MARKERS 2022; 2022:7785497. [PMID: 35392494 PMCID: PMC8983180 DOI: 10.1155/2022/7785497] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/26/2021] [Accepted: 03/10/2022] [Indexed: 12/12/2022]
Abstract
Objectives To explore independent risk factors with good and early predictive power for SAP severity and prognosis. Methods Patients with SAP were enrolled at Central South University Xiangya Hospital between April 2017 and May 2021 and used as the training cohort. From June 2021 to February 2022, all patients with SAP were defined as external patients for validation. Patients were grouped by survival status at a 30-day posthospital admission and then compared in terms of basic information and laboratory tests to screen the independent risk factors. Results A total of 249 patients with SAP were enrolled in the training cohort. The all-cause mortality rate at a 30-day postadmission was 25.8% (51/198). Blood urea nitrogen (BUN) levels were significantly higher in the mortality group (20.45 [interquartile range (IQR), 19.7] mmol/L) than in the survival group (6.685 [IQR, 6.3] mmol/L; P < 0.001). After propensity score matching (PSM), the BUN level was still higher in the mortality group than in the survival group (18.415 [IQR, 19.555] mmol/L vs. 10.63 [IQR, 6.03] mmol/L; P = 0.005). The area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) of BUN was 0.820 (95% confidence interval, 0.721–0.870; P < 0.001). The optimal BUN level cut-off for predicting a 30-day all-cause mortality was 10.745 mmol/L. Moreover, patients with SAP were grouped according to BUN levels and stratified according to optimal cut-off value. Patients with high BNU levels were associated with significantly higher rates of invasive mechanical ventilation (before PSM: 61.8% vs. 20.6%, P < 0.001; after PSM: 71.1% vs. 32%, P = 0.048) and a 30-day all-cause mortality (before PSM: 44.9% vs. 6.9%, P < 0.001; after PSM: 60% vs. 34.5%, P = 0.032) than those with low BNU levels before or after PSM. The effectiveness of BUN as a prognostic marker was further validated using ROC curves for the external validation set (n = 49). The AUC of BUN was 0.803 (95% CI, 0.655–0.950; P = 0.011). It showed a good ability to predict a 30-day all-cause mortality in patients with SAP. We also observed similar results regarding disease severity, including the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score (before PSM: 16 [IQR, 8] vs. 8 [IQR, 6], P < 0.001; after PSM: 18 [IQR, 10] vs. 12 [IQR, 7], P < 0.001), SOFA score (before PSM: 7 [IQR, 5] vs. 3 [IQR, 3], P < 0.001; after PSM: 8 [IQR, 5] vs. 5 [IQR, 3.5], P < 0.001), and mMarshall score (before PSM: 4 [IQR, 3] vs. 3 [IQR, 1], P < 0.001; after PSM: 5 [IQR, 2.5] vs. 3 [IQR, 1], P < 0.001). There was significant increase in intensive care unit occupancy in the high BUN level group before PSM (93.3% vs. 73.1%, P < 0.001), but not after PSM (97.8% vs. 86.2%, P = 0.074). Conclusions Our results showed that BUN levels within 24 h after hospital admission were independent risk factors for a 30-day all-cause death in patients with SAP.
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Beyer G, Hoffmeister A, Michl P, Gress TM, Huber W, Algül H, Neesse A, Meining A, Seufferlein TW, Rosendahl J, Kahl S, Keller J, Werner J, Friess H, Bufler P, Löhr MJ, Schneider A, Lynen Jansen P, Esposito I, Grenacher L, Mössner J, Lerch MM, Mayerle J. S3-Leitlinie Pankreatitis – Leitlinie der Deutschen Gesellschaft für Gastroenterologie, Verdauungs- und Stoffwechselkrankheiten (DGVS) – September 2021 – AWMF Registernummer 021-003. ZEITSCHRIFT FUR GASTROENTEROLOGIE 2022; 60:419-521. [PMID: 35263785 DOI: 10.1055/a-1735-3864] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Georg Beyer
- Medizinische Klinik und Poliklinik II, LMU Klinikum, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Deutschland
| | - Albrecht Hoffmeister
- Bereich Gastroenterologie, Klinik und Poliklinik für Onkologie, Gastroenterologie, Hepatologie Pneumologie und Infektiologie, Universitätsklinikum Leipzig, Deutschland
| | - Patrick Michl
- Universitätsklinik u. Poliklinik Innere Medizin I mit Schwerpunkt Gastroenterologie, Universitätsklinikum Halle, Deutschland
| | - Thomas Mathias Gress
- Klinik für Gastroenterologie und Endokrinologie, Universitätsklinikum Gießen und Marburg, Deutschland
| | - Wolfgang Huber
- Comprehensive Cancer Center München TUM, II. Medizinische Klinik und Poliklinik, Klinikum rechts der Isar, Technische Universität München, München, Deutschland
| | - Hana Algül
- Comprehensive Cancer Center München TUM, II. Medizinische Klinik und Poliklinik, Klinikum rechts der Isar, Technische Universität München, München, Deutschland
| | - Albrecht Neesse
- Klinik für Gastroenterologie, gastrointestinale Onkologie und Endokrinologie, Universitätsmedizin Göttingen, Deutschland
| | - Alexander Meining
- Medizinische Klinik und Poliklinik II Gastroenterologie und Hepatologie, Universitätsklinikum Würzburg, Deutschland
| | | | - Jonas Rosendahl
- Universitätsklinik u. Poliklinik Innere Medizin I mit Schwerpunkt Gastroenterologie, Universitätsklinikum Halle, Deutschland
| | - Stefan Kahl
- Klinik für Innere Medizin m. Schwerpkt. Gastro./Hämat./Onko./Nephro., DRK Kliniken Berlin Köpenick, Deutschland
| | - Jutta Keller
- Medizinische Klinik, Israelitisches Krankenhaus, Hamburg, Deutschland
| | - Jens Werner
- Klinik für Allgemeine, Viszeral-, Transplantations-, Gefäß- und Thoraxchirurgie, Universitätsklinikum München, Deutschland
| | - Helmut Friess
- Klinik und Poliklinik für Chirurgie, Klinikum rechts der Isar, München, Deutschland
| | - Philip Bufler
- Klinik für Pädiatrie m. S. Gastroenterologie, Nephrologie und Stoffwechselmedizin, Charité Campus Virchow-Klinikum - Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Deutschland
| | - Matthias J Löhr
- Department of Gastroenterology, Karolinska, Universitetssjukhuset, Stockholm, Schweden
| | - Alexander Schneider
- Klinik für Gastroenterologie und Hepatologie, Klinikum Bad Hersfeld, Deutschland
| | - Petra Lynen Jansen
- Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gastroenterologie, Verdauungs- und Stoffwechselkrankheiten (DGVS), Berlin, Deutschland
| | - Irene Esposito
- Pathologisches Institut, Heinrich-Heine-Universität und Universitätsklinikum Duesseldorf, Duesseldorf, Deutschland
| | - Lars Grenacher
- Conradia Radiologie München Schwabing, München, Deutschland
| | - Joachim Mössner
- Bereich Gastroenterologie, Klinik und Poliklinik für Onkologie, Gastroenterologie, Hepatologie Pneumologie und Infektiologie, Universitätsklinikum Leipzig, Deutschland
| | - Markus M Lerch
- Klinik für Innere Medizin A, Universitätsmedizin Greifswald, Deutschland.,Klinikum der Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität (LMU) München, Deutschland
| | - Julia Mayerle
- Medizinische Klinik und Poliklinik II, LMU Klinikum, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Deutschland
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Tan Q, Hu C, Chen Z, Jin T, Li L, Zhu P, Ma Y, Lin Z, Chen W, Shi N, Zhang X, Jiang K, Liu T, Yang X, Guo J, Huang W, Pandol SJ, Deng L, Xia Q. Growth differentiation factor 15 is an early predictor for persistent organ failure and mortality in acute pancreatitis. Pancreatology 2022; 22:200-209. [PMID: 34952762 DOI: 10.1016/j.pan.2021.12.001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/01/2021] [Revised: 11/04/2021] [Accepted: 12/06/2021] [Indexed: 02/08/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Early prediction of persistent organ failure (POF) is crucial for patients with acute pancreatitis (AP). Growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF15), also known as macrophage inhibitory cytokine 1 (MIC-1), is associated with inflammatory responses. We investigated changes in plasma GDF15 and assessed its predictive value in AP. METHODS The study included 290 consecutive patients with AP admitted within 36 h after symptoms onset. Clinical data obtained during hospitalization were collected. Plasma GDF15 levels were determined using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays. The predictive value of GDF15 for POF was analyzed. RESULTS There were 105 mild, 111 moderately severe, and 74 severe AP patients. Plasma GDF15 peak level were measured on admission, and significantly declined on the 3rd and 7th day. Admission GDF15 predicted POF and mortality with areas under the curve (AUC) of 0.847 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.798-0.895) and 0.934 (95% CI 0.887-0.980), respectively. Admission GDF15, Bedside Index of Severity in Acute Pancreatitis, and hematocrit were independent factors for POF by univariate and multivariate logistic regression, and the nomogram built on these variables showed good performance (optimism-corrected c-statistic = 0.921). The combined predictive model increased the POF accuracy with an AUC 0.925 (95% CI 0.894-0.956), a net reclassification improvement of 0.3024 (95% CI: 0.1482-0.4565, P < 0.001), and an integrated discrimination index of 0.11 (95% CI 0.0497-0.1703; P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS Plasma GDF15 measured within 48 h of symptom onset could help predict POF and mortality in AP patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Qingyuan Tan
- From Department and Laboratory of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine, Sichuan Provincial Pancreatitis Center and West China-Liverpool Biomedical Research Centre, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Cheng Hu
- From Department and Laboratory of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine, Sichuan Provincial Pancreatitis Center and West China-Liverpool Biomedical Research Centre, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Zhiyao Chen
- From Department and Laboratory of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine, Sichuan Provincial Pancreatitis Center and West China-Liverpool Biomedical Research Centre, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Tao Jin
- From Department and Laboratory of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine, Sichuan Provincial Pancreatitis Center and West China-Liverpool Biomedical Research Centre, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Lan Li
- From Department and Laboratory of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine, Sichuan Provincial Pancreatitis Center and West China-Liverpool Biomedical Research Centre, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Ping Zhu
- From Department and Laboratory of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine, Sichuan Provincial Pancreatitis Center and West China-Liverpool Biomedical Research Centre, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Yun Ma
- From Department and Laboratory of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine, Sichuan Provincial Pancreatitis Center and West China-Liverpool Biomedical Research Centre, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Ziqi Lin
- From Department and Laboratory of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine, Sichuan Provincial Pancreatitis Center and West China-Liverpool Biomedical Research Centre, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Weiwei Chen
- Department of Gastroenterology, Subei People's Hospital, Clinical Medical College of Yangzhou University, Yangzhou, China
| | - Na Shi
- From Department and Laboratory of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine, Sichuan Provincial Pancreatitis Center and West China-Liverpool Biomedical Research Centre, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Xiaoxin Zhang
- From Department and Laboratory of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine, Sichuan Provincial Pancreatitis Center and West China-Liverpool Biomedical Research Centre, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Kun Jiang
- From Department and Laboratory of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine, Sichuan Provincial Pancreatitis Center and West China-Liverpool Biomedical Research Centre, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Tingting Liu
- From Department and Laboratory of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine, Sichuan Provincial Pancreatitis Center and West China-Liverpool Biomedical Research Centre, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Xiaonan Yang
- From Department and Laboratory of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine, Sichuan Provincial Pancreatitis Center and West China-Liverpool Biomedical Research Centre, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Jia Guo
- From Department and Laboratory of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine, Sichuan Provincial Pancreatitis Center and West China-Liverpool Biomedical Research Centre, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Wei Huang
- From Department and Laboratory of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine, Sichuan Provincial Pancreatitis Center and West China-Liverpool Biomedical Research Centre, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Stephen J Pandol
- Departments of Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | - Lihui Deng
- From Department and Laboratory of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine, Sichuan Provincial Pancreatitis Center and West China-Liverpool Biomedical Research Centre, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China.
| | - Qing Xia
- From Department and Laboratory of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine, Sichuan Provincial Pancreatitis Center and West China-Liverpool Biomedical Research Centre, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China.
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Vishnupriya K, Chanmugam A. Acute Pancreatitis: The Increasing Role of Medical Management of a Traditionally Surgically Managed Disease. Am J Med 2022; 135:167-172. [PMID: 34562408 DOI: 10.1016/j.amjmed.2021.08.021] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/14/2021] [Revised: 08/20/2021] [Accepted: 08/24/2021] [Indexed: 11/01/2022]
Abstract
Management of acute pancreatitis and its complications has rapidly evolved in recent years. The earlier pillars of management that included prolonged bowel rest, empiric intravenous antibiotics, and early surgical intervention for complications such as pancreatic necrosis have become much less common. The latest evidence-based approaches to acute pancreatitis are taking almost a diametrically different path to previous management. The current strategy focuses on early feeding, judicious use of antibiotics, and delayed use of invasive interventions. Even in complex cases, when surgical interventions may be indicated, there is an expressed preference for minimally invasive techniques. We review the changes that have evolved rapidly over the past decade in this common clinical problem.
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Yang X, Zhang R, Jin T, Zhu P, Yao L, Li L, Cai W, Mukherjee R, Du D, Fu X, Xue J, Martina R, Liu T, Pendharkar S, Phillips AR, Singh VK, Sutton R, Windsor JA, Deng L, Xia Q, Huang W. Stress Hyperglycemia Is Independently Associated with Persistent Organ Failure in Acute Pancreatitis. Dig Dis Sci 2022; 67:1879-1889. [PMID: 33939149 PMCID: PMC9142444 DOI: 10.1007/s10620-021-06982-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/04/2020] [Accepted: 03/30/2021] [Indexed: 02/06/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND/AIMS Stress hyperglycemia is common in critical illness but it has not been clearly studied in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP). This study aimed to investigate the specific blood glucose (BG) level that defines stress hyperglycemia and to determine the impact of stress hyperglycemia on clinical outcomes in AP patients. METHODS AP patients admitted ≤ 48 h after abdominal pain onset were retrospectively analyzed. Patients were stratified by pre-existing diabetes and stress hyperglycemia was defined using stratified BG levels for non-diabetes and diabetes with clinical outcomes compared. RESULTS There were 967 non-diabetic and 114 diabetic (10.5%) patients met the inclusion criteria and the clinical outcomes between these two groups were not significantly different. In non-diabetes, the cut-off BG level of ≥ 180 mg/dl was selected to define stress hyperglycemia with an 8.8-fold higher odds ratio for persistent organ failure (POF) (95% CI 5.4-14.3; P < 0.001). For diabetes, ≥ 300 mg/dl was selected with a 7.5-fold higher odds ratio for POF (95% CI 1.7-34.3; P = 0.009). In multivariable logistic regression, stress hyperglycemia was independently associated with POF, acute necrotic collection, major infection and mortality. The combination of BG and systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) score in predicting POF was better than SIRS or Glasgow score alone. CONCLUSIONS This study identifies a cut-off BG level of ≥ 180 mg/dl and ≥ 300 mg/dl was optimal to define stress hyperglycemia for non-diabetic and diabetic AP patients, respectively. There was a significant relationship between stress hyperglycemia and adverse clinical outcomes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xinmin Yang
- Department and Laboratory of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine, Sichuan Provincial Pancreatitis Centre and West China-Liverpool Biomedical Research Centre, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, No. 37 Wannan Guoxue Alley, Chengdu, 610041 Sichuan Province China
| | - Ruwen Zhang
- Department and Laboratory of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine, Sichuan Provincial Pancreatitis Centre and West China-Liverpool Biomedical Research Centre, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, No. 37 Wannan Guoxue Alley, Chengdu, 610041 Sichuan Province China
| | - Tao Jin
- Department and Laboratory of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine, Sichuan Provincial Pancreatitis Centre and West China-Liverpool Biomedical Research Centre, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, No. 37 Wannan Guoxue Alley, Chengdu, 610041 Sichuan Province China
| | - Ping Zhu
- Department and Laboratory of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine, Sichuan Provincial Pancreatitis Centre and West China-Liverpool Biomedical Research Centre, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, No. 37 Wannan Guoxue Alley, Chengdu, 610041 Sichuan Province China
| | - Linbo Yao
- Department and Laboratory of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine, Sichuan Provincial Pancreatitis Centre and West China-Liverpool Biomedical Research Centre, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, No. 37 Wannan Guoxue Alley, Chengdu, 610041 Sichuan Province China
| | - Lan Li
- Department and Laboratory of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine, Sichuan Provincial Pancreatitis Centre and West China-Liverpool Biomedical Research Centre, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, No. 37 Wannan Guoxue Alley, Chengdu, 610041 Sichuan Province China
| | - Wenhao Cai
- Department and Laboratory of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine, Sichuan Provincial Pancreatitis Centre and West China-Liverpool Biomedical Research Centre, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, No. 37 Wannan Guoxue Alley, Chengdu, 610041 Sichuan Province China ,Liverpool Pancreatitis Research Group, Liverpool University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust and Institute of Translational Medicine, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
| | - Rajarshi Mukherjee
- Liverpool Pancreatitis Research Group, Liverpool University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust and Institute of Translational Medicine, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
| | - Dan Du
- West China-Washington Mitochondria and Metabolism Center, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Xianghui Fu
- Division of Endocrinology and Metabolism, State Key Laboratory of Biotherapy, West China Hospital, Sichuan University and Collaborative Innovation Center of Biotherapy, Chengdu, China
| | - Jing Xue
- State Key Laboratory of Oncogenes and Related Genes, Stem Cell Research Center, Ren Ji Hospital, School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China
| | - Reynaldo Martina
- Biostatistics and Clinical Trials, Department of Oncology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Tingting Liu
- Department and Laboratory of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine, Sichuan Provincial Pancreatitis Centre and West China-Liverpool Biomedical Research Centre, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, No. 37 Wannan Guoxue Alley, Chengdu, 610041 Sichuan Province China
| | - Sayali Pendharkar
- Surgical and Translational Research Centre, Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
| | - Anthony R. Phillips
- Surgical and Translational Research Centre, Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand ,Applied Surgery and Metabolism Laboratory, School of Biological Sciences, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
| | - Vikesh K. Singh
- Pancreatitis Center, Division of Gastroenterology, Johns Hopkins Medical Institutions, Baltimore, USA
| | - Robert Sutton
- Liverpool Pancreatitis Research Group, Liverpool University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust and Institute of Translational Medicine, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
| | - John A. Windsor
- Surgical and Translational Research Centre, Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
| | - Lihui Deng
- Department and Laboratory of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine, Sichuan Provincial Pancreatitis Centre and West China-Liverpool Biomedical Research Centre, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, No. 37 Wannan Guoxue Alley, Chengdu, 610041 Sichuan Province China
| | - Qing Xia
- Department and Laboratory of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine, Sichuan Provincial Pancreatitis Centre and West China-Liverpool Biomedical Research Centre, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, No. 37 Wannan Guoxue Alley, Chengdu, 610041 Sichuan Province China
| | - Wei Huang
- Department and Laboratory of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine, Sichuan Provincial Pancreatitis Centre and West China-Liverpool Biomedical Research Centre, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, No. 37 Wannan Guoxue Alley, Chengdu, 610041 Sichuan Province China
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Dancu GM, Popescu A, Sirli R, Danila M, Bende F, Tarta C, Sporea I. The BISAP score, NLR, CRP, or BUN: Which marker best predicts the outcome of acute pancreatitis? Medicine (Baltimore) 2021; 100:e28121. [PMID: 34941057 PMCID: PMC8702250 DOI: 10.1097/md.0000000000028121] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/20/2021] [Revised: 11/05/2021] [Accepted: 11/16/2021] [Indexed: 01/05/2023] Open
Abstract
Acute pancreatitis is a common disease, and the mortality rate can be high. Thus, a risk assessment should be performed early to optimize treatment. We compared simple prognostic markers with the bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP) scoring system to identify the best predictors of severity and mortality.This retrospective study stratified disease severity based on the revised Atlanta criteria. The accuracies of the markers for predicting severe AP (SAP) were assessed using receiver operating characteristic curves. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were calculated for each marker. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify independent predictors of SAP and mortality.The area under the curve (AUC) for the BISAP score was classified as fair for predicting SAP. The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio at 48 hours (NLR48 h) and the C-reactive protein level at 48 hours (CRP48 h) had the best AUCs and were independently associated with SAP. When both criteria were met, the AUC was 0.89, sensitivity was 68%, and specificity was 92%. CRP48 h and hematocrit at 48 hours were independently associated with mortality.NLR48 h and CRP48 h were independently associated with SAP but not superior to the BISAP score at admission. Assessing NLR48 h and CRP48H together was most suitable for predicting SAP. The CRP level was a good predictive marker for mortality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Greta Maria Dancu
- Department of Internal Medicine II, Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Center for Advanced Research in Gastroenterology and Hepatology “Victor Babes” University of Medicine and Pharmacy Timisoara, Romania
| | - Alina Popescu
- Department of Internal Medicine II, Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Center for Advanced Research in Gastroenterology and Hepatology “Victor Babes” University of Medicine and Pharmacy Timisoara, Romania
| | - Roxana Sirli
- Department of Internal Medicine II, Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Center for Advanced Research in Gastroenterology and Hepatology “Victor Babes” University of Medicine and Pharmacy Timisoara, Romania
| | - Mirela Danila
- Department of Internal Medicine II, Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Center for Advanced Research in Gastroenterology and Hepatology “Victor Babes” University of Medicine and Pharmacy Timisoara, Romania
| | - Felix Bende
- Department of Internal Medicine II, Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Center for Advanced Research in Gastroenterology and Hepatology “Victor Babes” University of Medicine and Pharmacy Timisoara, Romania
| | - Cristi Tarta
- Department X, 2nd Surgical Clinic, Researching Future Chirurgie 2, Victor Babes University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Timisoara, Romania
| | - Ioan Sporea
- Department of Internal Medicine II, Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Center for Advanced Research in Gastroenterology and Hepatology “Victor Babes” University of Medicine and Pharmacy Timisoara, Romania
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Deng H, Yu X, Gao K, Liu Y, Tong Z, Liu Y, Li W. Dynamic Nomogram for Predicting Thrombocytopenia in Adults with Acute Pancreatitis. J Inflamm Res 2021; 14:6657-6667. [PMID: 34916817 PMCID: PMC8667610 DOI: 10.2147/jir.s339981] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/24/2021] [Accepted: 11/25/2021] [Indexed: 12/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Objective Thrombocytopenia increases the risk of hemorrhage in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP), leading to poor clinical outcomes. Currently, there is no reliable tool for the early assessment of thrombocytopenia in these patients. We aimed to develop a nomogram based on available clinical parameters and validate its efficacy in predicting thrombocytopenia. Methods This was a retrospective study. All the data were extracted from an electronic database from May 2018 to May 2019. Patients with a diagnosis of AP and staying in the intensive care unit for more than 3 days were retrospectively analyzed. A clinical signature was built based on reproducible features, using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator method (LASSO), and logistic regression established the model (P < 0.05). Nomogram performance was determined by its discrimination, calibration, and clinical usefulness. Results A total of 594 eligible patients were enrolled, of whom 399 were allocated to the training sets and the 195 in the test sets. The clinical features, including blood urea nitrogen (BUN), fibrinogen (FIB), and antithrombase III, were significantly associated with the incidence of thrombocytopenia after acute pancreatitis (p < 0.05) in training sets. The individualized nomogram showed good discrimination in the training sample (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC], 0.881) and in the validation sample (AUC, 0.883) with good calibration. Conclusion The proposed nomogram has good performance for predicting thrombocytopenia in patients with acute pancreatitis and may facilitate clinical decision-making.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hongbin Deng
- Department of Critical Care Medicine, Jinling Hospital, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, People's Republic of China
| | - Xianqiang Yu
- School of Medicine, Southeast University, Nanjing, People's Republic of China
| | - Kun Gao
- Department of Critical Care Medicine, Jinling Hospital, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, People's Republic of China
| | - Yang Liu
- Department of Critical Care Medicine, Jinling Hospital, Medical School of Nanjing University, Nanjing, People's Republic of China
| | - Zhihui Tong
- Department of Critical Care Medicine, Jinling Hospital, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, People's Republic of China
| | - Yuxiu Liu
- Department of Critical Care Medicine, Jinling Hospital, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, People's Republic of China
| | - Weiqin Li
- Department of Critical Care Medicine, Jinling Hospital, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, People's Republic of China.,School of Medicine, Southeast University, Nanjing, People's Republic of China.,Department of Critical Care Medicine, Jinling Hospital, Medical School of Nanjing University, Nanjing, People's Republic of China
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Sun HW, Dai SJ, Kong HR, Fan JX, Yang FY, Dai JQ, Jin YP, Yu GZ, Chen BC, Shi KQ. Accurate prediction of acute pancreatitis severity based on genome-wide cell free DNA methylation profiles. Clin Epigenetics 2021; 13:223. [PMID: 34915915 PMCID: PMC8680202 DOI: 10.1186/s13148-021-01217-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/15/2021] [Accepted: 12/12/2021] [Indexed: 01/15/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Patients with severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) have a high mortality, thus early diagnosis and interventions are critical for improving survival. However, conventional tests are limited in acute pancreatitis (AP) stratification. We aimed to assess AP severity by integrating the informative clinical measurements with cell free DNA (cfDNA) methylation markers. Methods One hundred and seventy-five blood samples were collected from 61 AP patients at multiple time points, plus 24 samples from healthy individuals. Genome-wide cfDNA methylation profiles of all samples were characterized with reduced representative bisulfite sequencing. Clinical blood tests covering 93 biomarkers were performed on AP patients within 24 h. SAP predication models were built based on cfDNA methylation and conventional blood biomarkers separately and in combination. Results We identified 565 and 59 cfDNA methylation markers informative for acute pancreatitis and its severity. These markers were used to develop prediction models for AP and SAP with area under the receiver operating characteristic of 0.92 and 0.81, respectively. Twelve blood biomarkers were systematically screened for a predictor of SAP with a sensitivity of 87.5% for SAP, and a specificity of 100% in mild acute pancreatitis, significantly higher than existing blood tests. An expanded model integrating 12 conventional blood biomarkers with 59 cfDNA methylation markers further improved the SAP prediction sensitivity to 92.2%. Conclusions These findings have demonstrated that accurate prediction of SAP by the integration of conventional and novel blood molecular markers, paving the way for early and effective SAP intervention through a non-invasive rapid diagnostic test. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13148-021-01217-z.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hong-Wei Sun
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, China
| | - Sheng-Jie Dai
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, China
| | - Hong-Ru Kong
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, China
| | - Jie-Xiang Fan
- Translational Medicine Laboratory, Key Laboratory of Intelligent Critical Care and Life Support Research of Zhejiang Province, The First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, No. 1 FanHai West Road, OuHai, Wenzhou, 325000, China
| | - Fang-Yuan Yang
- Translational Medicine Laboratory, Key Laboratory of Intelligent Critical Care and Life Support Research of Zhejiang Province, The First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, No. 1 FanHai West Road, OuHai, Wenzhou, 325000, China
| | - Ju-Qing Dai
- Translational Medicine Laboratory, Key Laboratory of Intelligent Critical Care and Life Support Research of Zhejiang Province, The First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, No. 1 FanHai West Road, OuHai, Wenzhou, 325000, China
| | - Yue-Peng Jin
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, China
| | - Guan-Zhen Yu
- Translational Medicine Laboratory, Key Laboratory of Intelligent Critical Care and Life Support Research of Zhejiang Province, The First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, No. 1 FanHai West Road, OuHai, Wenzhou, 325000, China
| | - Bi-Cheng Chen
- Translational Medicine Laboratory, Key Laboratory of Intelligent Critical Care and Life Support Research of Zhejiang Province, The First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, No. 1 FanHai West Road, OuHai, Wenzhou, 325000, China
| | - Ke-Qing Shi
- Translational Medicine Laboratory, Key Laboratory of Intelligent Critical Care and Life Support Research of Zhejiang Province, The First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, No. 1 FanHai West Road, OuHai, Wenzhou, 325000, China. .,Key Laboratory of Intelligent Critical Care and Life Support Research of Zhejiang Province, The First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, China.
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Yang E, Nguyen NH, Kwong WT. Abdominal free fluid in acute pancreatitis predicts necrotizing pancreatitis and organ failure. Ann Gastroenterol 2021; 34:872-878. [PMID: 34815654 PMCID: PMC8596223 DOI: 10.20524/aog.2021.0666] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/29/2021] [Accepted: 06/07/2021] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Abdominal free fluid is frequently encountered on cross-sectional imaging for acute pancreatitis and may be a sign of increased severity and complications. This study examines the ability of free fluid to predict necrotizing pancreatitis and other adverse outcomes. Methods We conducted a single-center retrospective study of patients with acute pancreatitis and multiple cross-sectional imaging studies. Patients were divided into those who demonstrated free fluid on initial imaging and those without free fluid. The primary outcome was developing necrotizing pancreatitis. Logistic regression analysis assessed the performance of several predictors. Results A total of 245 acute pancreatitis patients were included. Pancreatic necrosis occurred more frequently in the free fluid group (31.3 vs. 1.3%, P<0.001). The free fluid group also had higher rates of transient organ failure (17.7 vs. 3.4%, P<0.001), persistent organ failure (17.7 vs. 2.0%, P<0.001), in-hospital mortality (7.3 vs. 1.3%, P=0.016), length of stay (16.2 vs. 5.5 days, P<0.001), and intensive care unit admission (30.2 vs. 4.7%, P<0.001). On multivariate logistic regression, free fluid was the strongest predictor (adjusted odds ratio 17.11, 95% confidence interval 3.68-79.65; P<0.001) for necrotizing pancreatitis, with an excellent performance (area under the curve 0.92). When neither fluid on initial imaging nor persistent systemic inflammatory response syndrome was present, the negative predictive value for developing pancreatic necrosis was 100%. Conclusions Free fluid in acute pancreatitis is a strong predictor for necrotizing pancreatitis, organ failure and mortality, and outperformed current predictors. Patients who lacked both free fluid on imaging and persistent systemic inflammatory response syndrome are at low risk for adverse outcomes and may be considered for early discharge.
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Affiliation(s)
- Edward Yang
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, UC San Diego, La Jolla, California, USA
| | - Nghia H Nguyen
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, UC San Diego, La Jolla, California, USA
| | - Wilson T Kwong
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, UC San Diego, La Jolla, California, USA
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Zeng QX, Wu ZH, Huang DL, Huang YS, Zhong HJ. Association Between Ascites and Clinical Findings in Patients with Acute Pancreatitis: A Retrospective Study. Med Sci Monit 2021; 27:e933196. [PMID: 34737257 PMCID: PMC8577037 DOI: 10.12659/msm.933196] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/19/2021] [Accepted: 08/06/2021] [Indexed: 12/18/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Complications are the most important outcome determinants for acute pancreatitis (AP). We designed this single-center retrospective study to evaluate the clinical findings (complications, disease severity, and outcomes) of 218 patients with AP and to identify variables associated with ascites. MATERIAL AND METHODS We extracted clinical data from consecutive patients with AP and divided them into 2 groups based on presence or absence of ascites. We compared disease severity, complications, and outcomes between groups. RESULTS We analyzed data from 218 patients with AP (43 with ascites and 175 without it). The patients with ascites had a more severe disease (higher incidence of pancreatic inflammation [90.70% vs 68.57%; P=0.003], higher modified computed tomography severity index score [2.00 (0.00-2.00) vs 4.00 (4.00-6.00); P<0.001], higher incidence of moderate/severe AP [53.49% vs 13.14%; P<0.001]) and poorer outcomes (higher incidence of ventilation [6.98% vs 0.57%; P=0.025] and vasopressor use [4.65% vs 0%; P=0.038], and longer hospital stays [10.00 (7.00-13.00) vs 8.00 (5.00-10.00); P=0.007]) than those without ascites. Moreover, patients with ascites also displayed a higher risk for pancreatic fluid collection (odds ratio [OR]=9.206; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.613-32.447; P<0.001), renal failure (OR=5.732; 95% CI, 1.025-32.041; P=0.024), respiratory failure (OR=6.242; 95% CI, 1.034-37.654; P=0.029), and pleural effusion (OR=5.186; 95% CI, 1.381-19.483; P<0.001) than those without ascites. CONCLUSIONS The findings from the experience of a single center of patients with AP showed that pancreatic fluid collections, renal failure, respiratory failure, and pleural effusion were associated with the development of ascites.
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Affiliation(s)
- Quan-Xiang Zeng
- Department of Gastroenterology, Maoming People’s Hospital, Maoming, Guangdong, PR China
| | - Zhen-Hua Wu
- Department of Gastroenterology, Maoming People’s Hospital, Maoming, Guangdong, PR China
| | - Dong-Liang Huang
- Department of Gastroenterology, Maoming People’s Hospital, Maoming, Guangdong, PR China
| | - Ye-Sheng Huang
- Department of Gastroenterology, Maoming People’s Hospital, Maoming, Guangdong, PR China
| | - Hao-Jie Zhong
- Department of Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Pharmaceutical University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, PR China
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Di Martino M, Van Laarhoven S, Ielpo B, Ramia JM, Manuel-Vázquez A, Martínez-Pérez A, Pavel M, Beltran Miranda P, Orti-Rodríguez R, de la Serna S, Ortega Rabbione GJ, Sanz-Garcia A, Martín-Pérez E. Systematic review and meta-analysis of fluid therapy protocols in acute pancreatitis: type, rate and route. HPB (Oxford) 2021; 23:1629-1638. [PMID: 34325967 DOI: 10.1016/j.hpb.2021.06.426] [Citation(s) in RCA: 28] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/19/2021] [Revised: 06/21/2021] [Accepted: 06/25/2021] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Adequate fluid resuscitation is paramount in the management of acute pancreatitis (AP). The aim of this study is to assess benefits and harms of fluid therapy protocols in patients with AP. METHODS MEDLINE, Embase, Science Citation Index and clinical trial registries were searched for randomised clinical trials published before May 2020, assessing types of fluids, routes and rates of administration. RESULTS A total 15 trials (1073 participants) were included. Age ranged from 38 to 73 years; follow-up period ranged from 0.5 to 6 months. Ringer lactate (RL) showed a reduced number of severe adverse events (SAE) when compared to normal saline (NS) (OR 0.48; 95%CI 0.29-0.81, p = 0.006); additionally, NS showed reduced SAE (RR 0.38; 95%IC 0.27-0.54, p < 0.001) and organ failure (RR 0.30; 95%CI 0.21-0.44, p < 0.001) in comparison with hydroxyethyl starch (HES). High fluid rate fluid infusion showed increased mortality (OR 2.88; 95%CI 1.41-5.88, p = 0.004), increased number of SAE (RR 1.42; 95%CI 1.04-1.93, p = 0.030) and higher incidence of sepsis (RR 2.80; 95%CI 1.51-5.19, p = 0.001) compared to moderate fluid rate infusion. CONCLUSIONS In patients with AP, RL should be preferred over NS and HES should not be recommended. Based on low-certainty evidence, moderate-rate fluid infusion should be preferred over high-rate infusion.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marcello Di Martino
- HPB Unit, Department of General and Digestive Surgery, Hospital Universitario La Princesa, Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria Princesa (IIS-IP), Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (UAM), Madrid, Spain.
| | - Stijn Van Laarhoven
- Department of HPB Surgery University Hospitals Bristol and Weston NHS Foundation Trust, Bristol, UK
| | - Benedetto Ielpo
- HPB Unit, University Mar Hospital, Parc Salut, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Jose M Ramia
- Faculty of Health Sciences, Valencian International University (VIU), 46002, Valencia, Spain; Department of Surgery, Hospital General Universitario de Alicante, ISABIALAlicante (Spain)
| | - Alba Manuel-Vázquez
- Department of General and Digestive Surgery, Hospital Universitario de Getafe, Madrid, Spain
| | - Aleix Martínez-Pérez
- Faculty of Health Sciences, Valencian International University (VIU), 46002, Valencia, Spain
| | - Mihai Pavel
- HPB Unit, Department of General Surgery, Hospital Universitari de Tarragona Joan XXIII, Tarragona, Spain, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Departament de Medicina i Cirugia, Reus, Spain, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Departament de Medicina i Cirugia, Reus, Spain
| | - Pablo Beltran Miranda
- Unidad de Cirugía Hepato-Bilio-Pancreática, Hospital Universitario Juan Ramón Jiménez, Huelva, Spain
| | - Rafael Orti-Rodríguez
- Department of General and Digestive Surgery, Hospital Universitario Nuestra Señora de Candelaria, Santa Cruz de Tenerife, Spain
| | - Sofía de la Serna
- HPB Surgery Unit, Department of General and Digestive Surgery, Hospital Universitario Clínico San Carlos, Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria Hospital Clínico San Carlos (IdISSC), Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Spain
| | - Guillermo J Ortega Rabbione
- Data Analysis Unit, Hospital Universitario La Princesa, Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria Princesa (IIS-IP), Madrid, Spain
| | - Ancor Sanz-Garcia
- Data Analysis Unit, Hospital Universitario La Princesa, Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria Princesa (IIS-IP), Madrid, Spain
| | - Elena Martín-Pérez
- HPB Unit, Department of General and Digestive Surgery, Hospital Universitario La Princesa, Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria Princesa (IIS-IP), Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (UAM), Madrid, Spain
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Robateau A, Akusoba C, Greenlund L. 51-Year-Old Man With Ascites and Abdominal Pain. Mayo Clin Proc 2021; 96:2713-2717. [PMID: 34531062 DOI: 10.1016/j.mayocp.2021.01.040] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/11/2020] [Revised: 01/21/2021] [Accepted: 01/27/2021] [Indexed: 11/15/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Anthony Robateau
- Resident in Internal Medicine, Mayo Clinic School of Graduate Medical Education, Rochester, MN
| | - Chineze Akusoba
- Resident in Internal Medicine, Mayo Clinic School of Graduate Medical Education, Rochester, MN
| | - Laura Greenlund
- Advisor to residents and Consultant in Community and Internal Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN.
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Liu N, He J, Hu X, Xu SF, Su W, Luo JF, Wang QF, Guo F. Acute necrotising pancreatitis: measurements of necrosis volume and mean CT attenuation help early prediction of organ failure and need for intervention. Eur Radiol 2021; 31:7705-7714. [PMID: 33758956 DOI: 10.1007/s00330-021-07840-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/27/2020] [Revised: 01/22/2021] [Accepted: 02/25/2021] [Indexed: 01/01/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES This study explored the early predictive value of volume and mean CT density of necrosis for adverse outcomes in patients with acute necrotising pancreatitis (ANP). METHODS A total of 155 patients with ANP who underwent CECT within 7 days of symptom onset were included. The necrosis volume, mean CT density, and modified CT severity index (mCTSI) were calculated. C-reactive protein (CRP) and blood urea nitrogen (BUN) levels both 48 h after symptom onset were reviewed. Adverse outcomes were recorded. The predictive value of each indicator was assessed using ROC curve analysis. RESULTS There were significant associations between necrosis volume and mean CT density and organ failure (OF), persistent OF (POF), and need for intervention (p < 0.001 for all). For predicting OF, the area under the curve (AUC) was significantly higher for necrosis volume than for mCTSI and BUN (AUC: 0.84 vs 0.67, p = 0.0011; 0.84 vs 0.71, p = 0.0193, respectively). For predicting POF and need for intervention, the AUCs for necrosis volume were significantly higher than those for mCTSI (AUC: 0.79 vs 0.66, p = 0.0045; 0.77 vs 0.61, p = 0.0019, respectively), but did not significantly differ from those for CRP and BUN. For predicting OF, a significantly better predictive value was achieved with mean CT density than with mCTSI (AUC: 0.79 vs 0.67, p = 0.0163). There were no significant differences in predictive value between mean CT density, CRP, and BUN. CONCLUSIONS The volume and mean CT density of necrosis based on CECT can provide early prediction of OF, POF, and need for intervention. KEY POINTS • Compared to mCTSI, necrosis volume might be used to more accurately diagnose organ failure and persistent organ failure and might be better associated with the need for intervention. • Necrosis volume and mean CT density based on CECT are reliable quantitative predictors for organ failure, persistent organ failure, and intervention in acute pancreatitis.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nan Liu
- Department of Critical Care Medicine, Sir Run Run Shaw Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
- Center of Severe Pancreatitis, Sir Run Run Shaw Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
| | - Jie He
- Department of Radiology, Sir Run Run Shaw Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
| | - Xi Hu
- Department of Radiology, Sir Run Run Shaw Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
| | - Shu-Feng Xu
- Department of Radiology, People's Hospital of Quzhou, Quzhou, China
| | - Wei Su
- Department of Critical Care Medicine, Sir Run Run Shaw Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
- Center of Severe Pancreatitis, Sir Run Run Shaw Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
| | - Jing-Feng Luo
- Laboratory of Cancer Biology, Key Laboratory of Biotherapy of Zhejiang Province, Sir Run Run Shaw Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
| | - Qiang-Feng Wang
- Department of Oncology, First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
| | - Feng Guo
- Department of Critical Care Medicine, Sir Run Run Shaw Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China.
- Center of Severe Pancreatitis, Sir Run Run Shaw Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China.
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Ong Y, Shelat VG. Ranson score to stratify severity in Acute Pancreatitis remains valid - Old is gold. Expert Rev Gastroenterol Hepatol 2021; 15:865-877. [PMID: 33944648 DOI: 10.1080/17474124.2021.1924058] [Citation(s) in RCA: 37] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/23/2021] [Accepted: 04/27/2021] [Indexed: 02/08/2023]
Abstract
Introduction: Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a common gastrointestinal disease with a wide spectrum of severity and morbidity. Developed in 1974, the Ranson score was the first scoring system to prognosticate AP. Over the past decades, while the Ranson score remains widely used, it was identified to have certain limitations, such as having low predictive power. It has also been criticized for its 48-hour requirement for computation of the final score, which has been argued to potentially delay management. With advancements in our understanding of AP, is the Ranson score still relevant as an effective prognostication system for AP?Areas covered: This review summarizes the available evidence comparing Ranson score with other conventional and novel scoring systems, in terms of prognostic accuracy, benefits, limitations and clinical applicability. It also evaluates the effectiveness of Ranson score with regard to the Revised Atlanta Classification.Expert opinion: The Ranson score consistently exhibits comparable prognostic accuracy to other newer scoring systems, and the 48-hour timeframe for computing the full Ranson score is an inherent strength, not a weakness. These aspects, coupled with relative ease of use, practicality and universality of the score, advocate for the continued relevance of the Ranson score in modern clinical practice.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yuki Ong
- Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Vishal G Shelat
- Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- FRCS (General Surgery), FEBS (HPB Surgery), Hepato-Pancreatico-BiliarySurgery, Department of Surgery, Tan Tock Seng Hospital, Singapore, Singapore
- Lee Kong Chian School of Medicine, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Singapore
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