Acute decompensation (AD) is defined as the development of complications related to portal hypertension and liver dysfunction that affect the progression of chronic liver disease (CLD) or liver cirrhosis (LC). Variations exist in patient demographics and prognostic outcomes of AD based on the aetiology of CLD, encompassing LC. However, limited research has been conducted to analyse these discrepancies across aetiologies.

The prospective Korean Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure (KACLiF) cohort consisted of 1,501 patients who were hospitalized with AD of CLD from July 2015 to August 2018. In this study, we assess the clinical attributes and prognostic implications of AD with CLD/LC stratified by the aetiology.

Among 1,501 patients, the mean age was 54.7 years old and 1,118 patients (74.5%) were men. The common events of AD were GI bleeding (35.3%) and jaundice (35.0%). There was a median follow-up of 8.0 months (1.0-16.0 months). The most common aetiology of CLD was alcohol (n = 1021), followed by viral hepatitis (n = 206), viral hepatitis with alcohol-related (n = 129), cryptogenic (n = 108) and autoimmune (n = 37). Viral hepatitis with alcohol-related CLD showed a poor liver function profile and a high frequency of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) [22.1% vs. 19.6% (alcohol CLD), 8.1% (viral CLD), 5.6% (autoimmune related CLD and 16.0% (cryptogenic CLD)] with worse adverse outcomes (mortality or liver transplantation) than other aetiologies. The difference in aetiology was a significant factor for 28-day adverse outcomes in multivariate analysis even in a high MELD score (≥15), which indicated poor baseline liver function and prognosis (p < 0.001).

The aetiology of CLD constitutes a pivotal determinant influencing both short- and long-term adverse outcomes of AD in CLD, even among individuals presenting with elevated MELD scores. Notably, patients afflicted with viral hepatitis should exercise caution even in the consumption of modest quantities of alcohol that induced the exacerbations in the adverse outcomes associated with AD.

Accurate prediction of survival in patients with cirrhosis is crucial, as patients who are unlikely to survive in the short-term need to be oriented to liver transplantation and to novel therapeutic approaches. Patients with acute decompensation of cirrhosis without or with organ dysfunction/failure, the so-called acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), have a particularly high short-term mortality. Recognizing the specificity of this clinical situation, dedicated classifications and scores have been developed over the last 15 years, including variables (e.g. organ failures and systemic inflammation) not part of the formerly available cirrhosis severity scores, namely Child-Pugh score or MELD. For patients with acute decompensation of cirrhosis, it led to the development of a dedicated score, the Clif-C-AD score, independently validated. For more severe patients, three different scoring systems have been proposed, by European, Asian and North American societies namely Clif-C-ACLF, AARC score and NASCELD-ACLF respectively. These scores have been validated, and are widely used across the world. The differences and similarities between these scores, as well as their validation and limitations are discussed here. Even if these scores and classifications have been a step forward in favouring homogeneity between studies, and in helping making decisions for individual patients, their predictive value for mortality can still be improved as their area under the ROC curve does not exceed .8. Novel scores including biomarkers reflecting the pathophysiology of acute decompensation of cirrhosis might help reach that goal.

This narrative review addresses the definition of acute-on-chronic liver failure, a condition associated with high short-term mortality in patients with chronic liver disease and/or cirrhosis. We provide two major points of view: the East and the West perspective. Both definitions vary regarding the underlying patient population and organ failure(s) definition. Nevertheless, all the definitions have their clinical utility: from the core concept of having the "liver" as a conditio sine qua non, the syndrome cannot exist (Asian Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver); a data-driven, robust definition (European Association for the Study of the Liver); a bedside tool that can quickly identify patients at high risk of dying (North American Consortium for the Study of End-stage Liver Disease [NACSELD]). In each section, we provide the overall definitions, the criteria of organ failure(s), and some epidemiological data illustrating how these apply in each area of the world.

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a specific, but complex and multifactorial form of acute decompensation (AD) of cirrhosis and is characterized by an extraordinary dynamic natural course, rapidly evolving organ failure and high short-term mortality. In daily clinical practice, patients with liver cirrhosis and decompensation have indications for different medical procedures such as endoscopies, interventional treatments like transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) or even surgical procedures. In these situations, clinicians often need to balance the expected benefits of such procedures with the risks of causing acute decompensation or ACLF. This review summarizes the evidence of medical procedures and their role in precipitating or preventing ACLF and highlights the aspects to consider during patient selection.

Liver cirrhosis is a progressive disease with high mortality. Gut microbiota derangement, increased gut permeability, bacterial translocation and chronic inflammation all drive disease progression. This trial aims to investigate whether faecal microbiota transplantation (FMT) may improve the disease course in patients with acute decompensation of liver cirrhosis.

In this Danish, multicentre, randomised, double-blinded, placebo-controlled trial, 220 patients with acute decompensation of liver cirrhosis and a Child-Pugh score≤12 will be randomised (1:1) to oral, encapsulated FMT or placebo in addition to standard of care. Before the intervention, the patients will be examined and biological samples obtained, and this is repeated at 1 and 4 weeks and 3, 6 and 12 months after the intervention. The primary outcome is the time from randomisation to new decompensation or death. Secondary endpoints include mortality, number of decompensation events during follow-up and changes in disease severity and liver function.

The Central Denmark Region Research Ethics Committee approved the trial protocol (no. 1-10-72-302-20). The results will be published in an international peer-reviewed journal, and all patients will receive a summary of the results.

ClinicalTrials.gov study identifier NCT04932577.

There is a growing global burden of liver disease with the current management for complications of liver cirrhosis being reactive as opposed to proactive, affecting outcomes. Management can often be suboptimal in overburdened health-care systems with considerable socioeconomic and geographical disparity existing, which was exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic, highlighting the need for sustainable care pathways to be delivered remotely. To this end, digital health care could be the key and, in this Review, we highlight the principal studies that have explored the use of digital technology in the management of cirrhosis complications. While digital health care is a somewhat new field, considerable advances have been made in various domains, particularly in the development of remote monitoring and risk modelling. We aim to provide a balanced perspective of the opportunities for and barriers to the integration of digital technology into established liver-care pathways. Lastly, we reflect on the current acceptability of digital health care and the required future directions to ensure the digital transformation of hepatology is a success.

Hospitalized patients with acute decompensation (AD) of cirrhosis are at risk of progressing to acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), significantly increasing their mortality. The aim of this study was to identify key predictors and patient trajectories predisposing to ACLF.

In this multicenter, prospective study spanning 2 years, clinical, biochemical, and 90-day survival data were collected from 625 patients with AD (European Association for the Study of the Liver criteria) across North, South, and East India. We divided the cohort into a Derivation cohort (DC: 318 patients) and a Validation cohort (VC: 307 patients). Predictive models for pre-ACLF were derived, validated, and compared with established scores such as model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) 3.0 and chronic liver failure Consortium acute decompensation.

Of 625 patients (mean age 49 years, 83% male, 77.5% with alcohol-related liver disease), 32.2% progressed to ACLF. Patients progressing to ACLF showed significantly higher bilirubin (10.9 vs 8.1 mg/dL), leukocyte counts (9,400 vs 8,000 per mm 3 ), international normalized ratio (1.9 vs 1.8), and MELD 3.0 (28 vs 25) but lower sodium (131 vs 134 mEq/L) and survival (62% vs 86%) compared with those without progression ( P < 0.05) in the DC. Consistent results were noted with alcohol-associated hepatitis, infection and hepatic encephalopathy as additional risk factors in VC. Liver failure at presentation (odds ratio: 2.4 [in DC], 6.9 [in VC]) and the 7-day trajectories of bilirubin, international normalized ratio, and MELD 3.0 significantly predicted ACLF progression ( P < 0.001). A new pre-ACLF model showed superior predictive capability (area under the curve of 0.71 in DC and 0.82 in VC) compared with MELD 3.0 and chronic liver failure Consortium acute decompensation scores ( P < 0.05).

Approximately one-third of AD patients in this Indian cohort rapidly progressed to ACLF, resulting in high mortality. Early identification of patients at risk can guide targeted interventions to prevent ACLF.

The recently developed Freiburg Index of Post-TIPS Survival (FIPS) allows improved risk classification of patients with decompensated cirrhosis allocated to transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) implantation. This study investigated the prognostic value of the FIPS in patients hospitalized with acute decompensation of cirrhosis (AD), outside the setting of TIPS implantation.

A total of 1133 patients with AD were included in a retrospective, multi-centre study. Ninety-day, 180-day and 1-year mortality were recorded and the FIPS' performance in predicting mortality at these time points was analysed using ROC analyses.

Ninety-day, 180-day and 1-year mortality were 17.7%, 24.4% and 30.8%. Uni- and multivariable Cox regression models showed that the FIPS independently predicted 1-year mortality in the study cohort (HR 1.806, 95% CI 1.632-1.998, p < .0001). In ROC analyses, the FIPS offered consistently high performance in the prediction of mortality within 1 year after AD (area under the receiver operator characteristic [AUROC]: 1-year mortality .712 [.679-.746], 180-day mortality .740 [.705-.775] and 90-day mortality .761 [.721-.801]). In fact, in the subgroup of patients presenting with variceal bleeding, the FIPS even showed significantly improved discriminatory performance in the prediction of long-term mortality (AUROC 1-year mortality: .782 [.724-.839]) in comparison with established prognostic scores, such as the CLIF-C AD score (.724 [.660-.788], p = .0071) or MELD 3.0 (.726 [.662-.790], p = .0042).

The FIPS accurately predicts mortality in patients with AD and seems to offer superior prognostication of long-term mortality in patients with variceal bleeding.

Hepatic encephalopathy (HE) is a serious complication of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) that requires early detection and intervention to positively impact patient prognosis. This study aimed to develop a reliable model to predict HE in ACLF patients during hospitalization.

Retrospectively recruiting 255 hepatitis B-related ACLF patients, including 67 who developed HE during hospitalization, the study analysed clinical data and biochemical indices collected during the first week of admission. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) was used to identify characteristic predictors for hospitalization HE events, and a logistic regression model was subsequently developed. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, and bootstrap resampling were used to evaluate the model's discrimination, consistency, and accuracy, and a nomogram was created to visualize the model. An external validation cohort of 236 liver failure patients collected from the same medical centre between 2007 and 2010 was used to validate the model.

The study found that blood urea nitrogen (BUN), alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), international normalized ratio (INR), serum ammonia, and infection complications during hospitalization were risk factors for HE in ACLF patients. The new model predicted the development of HE in ACLF patients with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 85.2%, which was superior to other models. The best threshold for the new model was 0.28, resulting in a specificity of 81.4% and a sensitivity of 80.6%. In the validation group, the new model showed similar results, with an AUROC of 79% and a specificity of 83.6% and a sensitivity of 56.6%.

This study developed and validated a new prediction model for HE in ACLF patients offering a useful tool for early identification of patients with a high risk of HE in clinical settings. However, to ascertain the model's general effectiveness, future prospective multicentre studies are warranted.

Acute decompensation (AD) in patients with liver cirrhosis is associated with a dramatic deterioration in prognosis. Immediate initiation of appropriate recompensation measures is essential to improve patient's outcome, although objective parameters for evaluating the success of recompensation are still lacking. Spleen stiffness measurements (SSM) have emerged as promising non-invasive tool to assess clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH), which is the main driver of acute decompensation. However, while SSM accurately predicts CSPH and its complication, currently no data are available on its diagnostic performance during recompensation. This pilot-study aimed at evaluating changes in spleen stiffness following the initiation of recompensation measures in cirrhotic patients hospitalized due to AD.

In this prospective pilot-study, 60 patients with cirrhosis showing AD were included. Liver stiffness measurements (LSM) and SSM were performed on admission and repetitive SSM on day 3 and 5, respectivele, during recompensation measures. A cohort of patients (n = 10) with compensated cirrhosis served as control.

A total of 36 data sets from the originally enrolled 60 patients were eligible for final analysis. On admission, patients with AD revealed a significantly increased spleen stiffness compared to the control group (70.51 vs. 29.06 kPa, p < 0.0001). Following the initiation of recompensation measures SSM revealed a significant reduction in spleen stiffness compared to the baseline assessment on day 3 (-18.5 kPa, -21.53%; p = 0.0002) with no further decrease on day 5 (-17.63 kPa, -21.23%; p = 0.0326).

Repetitive SSM seems to be a useful non-invasive clinical marker to assess the effectiveness of recompensation measures in cirrhotic patients with AD.

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a syndrome characterized by the acute decompensation of chronic liver disease, resulting in organ failure and high short-term mortality. The progression of ACLF is dynamic and reversible in a considerable proportion of patients during hospitalization. Early detection and accurate assessment of ACLF are essential; however, ideal methods for this purpose are still lacking. Therefore, this study aimed to develop a new score for predicting the onset of ACLF in patients with various chronic liver diseases.A total of 6,188 patients with various chronic liver diseases were included in the study. Clinical and laboratory data were collected, and the occurrence of ACLF within 28 days was recorded. The Lasso-Cox regression method was employed to develop prediction models for the onset of ACLF at 7, 14, and 28 days. Among 5,221 patients without ACLF, 477 progressed to ACLF within 28 days. Seven predictors were identified as significantly associated with the occurrence of ACLF at 7, 14, and 28 days. A new scoring system was developed as follows: [NEUT ≥ 7, 109/L; 1 or 0] × 0.49 + [PLT < 100, 109/L; 1 or 0] × 0.44 + [TBIL ≥ 35, µmol/L; 1 or 0] × 0.05 + [HDL-C < 0.5, mmol/L; 1 or 0] × 1.04 - Ln[Hb, g/L] × 0.89 + [BUN > 7, mmol/L; 1 or 0] × 0.51 + Ln[INR] × 0.87 + 3.40. This new score demonstrated superior discrimination, with the C-indexes of 0.958, 0.944, and 0.938 at 7, 14, and 28 days, respectively, outperforming those of four other scores (CLIF-C-ACLF-Ds, MELD, MELD-Na, and CLIF-C-ADs score; all P < 0.001). Additionally, the new score improved in predictive accuracy, time-dependent receiver operating characteristics, probability density function evaluations, and calibration curves, making it highly predictive for the onset of ACLF at all time points. The optimal cut-off value of 9.6 effectively distinguished between high- and low-risk patients for ACLF onset. These findings were further validated in a separate cohort of patients. A new progressive score, based on seven predictors, has been developed to accurately forecast the occurrence of ACLF within 7, 14, and 28 days in patients with various chronic liver diseases. This tool may be utilized to identify high-risk patients, tailor follow-up management, and guide the escalation of care, prognostication, and transplant evaluation.

Background/Objectives: Alcohol can directly damage the liver, causing steatosis, steatohepatitis, cirrhosis, and hepatocellular cancer. The aim of this study was to examine 28-day survival in hospitalized patients with alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) cirrhosis, as well as to develop and validate a new survival prediction model. Methods: A total of 145 patients with ALD cirrhosis were included; 107 were diagnosed with acute decompensation (AD) and 38 with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). The new liver mortality inpatients (LIV-IN) score was calculated using the following variables: hepatic encephalopathy (HE), hepatorenal syndrome (HRS), ascites, systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), community-acquired infection (CAI), and fibrinogen. The diagnostic accuracy of the LIV-IN score was tested, along with the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), model for end-stage liver disease-sodium (MELD-Na), albumin-bilirubin (ALBI), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), chronic liver failure consortium-C acute decompensation (CLIF-C AD), and chronic liver failure consortium-acute-on-chronic liver failure (CLIF-C ACLF). Results: Lethal outcome occurred in 46 (31.7%) patients. The mortality rate was higher in the ACLF group (n = 22, 57.9%) compared to the AD group (n = 24, 22.4%) (p < 0.01). The highest predictive power for short-term mortality was observed for the LIV-IN score (AUC 73.4%, p < 0.01). In patients with AD, the diagnostic accuracy of the CLIF-C AD score was better than for the LIV-IN score (AUC 0.699; p = 0.004, AUC 0.686; p = 0.007, respectively). In patients with ACLF, only the LIV-IN score had statistically significant discriminative power in predicting 28-day survival. Conclusions: The liver mortality inpatients prognostic score is a new, reliable prognostic model in predicting 28-day mortality.

Cirrhosis represents a significant global health challenge, characterized by high morbidity and mortality rates that severely impact human health. Timely and precise prognostic assessments of liver cirrhosis are crucial for improving patient outcomes and reducing mortality rates as they enable physicians to identify high-risk patients and implement early interventions. This paper features a thorough literature review on the prognostic assessment of liver cirrhosis, aiming to summarize and delineate the present status and constraints associated with the application of traditional prognostic tools in clinical settings. Among these tools, the Child-Pugh and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scoring systems are predominantly utilized. However, their accuracy varies significantly. These systems are generally suitable for broad assessments but lack condition-specific applicability and fail to capture the risks associated with dynamic changes in patient conditions. Future research in this field is poised for deep exploration into the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) with routine clinical and multi-omics data in patients with cirrhosis. The goal is to transition from static, unimodal assessment models to dynamic, multimodal frameworks. Such advancements will not only improve the precision of prognostic tools but also facilitate personalized medicine approaches, potentially revolutionizing clinical outcomes.

As the global prevalence of chronic liver disease continues to rise, the need to determine which patients will develop end-stage liver disease and require liver transplantation is increasingly important. However, current prognostic models perform sub-optimally. We aim to determine microRNA profiles associated with clinical decompensation and mortality/transplantation within 1 year. We examined microRNA expression profiles in plasma samples from patients across the spectrum of cirrhosis (n = 154), acute liver failure (ALF) (n = 22), sepsis (n = 20) and healthy controls (HC) (n = 20). We demonstrated that a microRNA-based model (miR-24 and -27a) associated with systemic inflammation differentiated decompensated cirrhosis states from compensated cirrhosis and HC (AUC 0.77 (95% CI 0.69-0.85)). 6 patients within the compensated cirrhosis group decompensated the subsequent year and their exclusion improved model performance (AUC 0.81 (95% CI 0.71-0.89)). miR-191 (associated with liver injury) predicted risk of mortality across the cohort when acutely decompensated and acute-on-chronic-liver failure patients were included. When they were excluded miR-24 (associated with systemic inflammation) predicted risk of mortality. Our findings demonstrate that microRNA associated with systemic inflammation and liver injury predict adverse outcomes in cirrhosis. miR-24 and -191 require further investigation as prognostic biomarkers and therapeutic targets for patients with liver disease.

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a severe complication of advanced liver disease. A significant number of ACLF patients have not clear precipitating factors. The aim of the study was to investigate the role of alterations in porto-hepatic hemodynamics, especially non-forward portal flow (NFPF), in ACLF and liver-related mortality.

233 cirrhotic patients were included in the study with a median follow-up of 24 months. Color-Doppler ultrasound was used to assess portal vein patency, flow direction and significant porto-systemic collaterals (>8 mm). Patients with active cancer, both at baseline and during follow-up and severe non liver-related comorbidities were excluded. ACLF and liver-related mortality were recorded during follow-up.

Fifty-six patients (24%) developed ACLF; 24 (10,3%) had baseline NFPF. In survival analysis, NFPF, but not portal vein thrombosis, was independently associated with ACLF development (HR 2.85 95% C.I. [1.49-5.42], p = 0.001) and liver-related mortality (HR 2.24 95% C.I. [1.16-4.28], p = 0.015), even after adjustment for liver disease severity scores, age and etiology of liver disease.

NFPF is independently associated with ACLF development and liver-related mortality, regardless of etiology, severity disease scores and portal vein thrombosis. Although there is no specific measure to reverse NFPF, patients with NFPF should receive prompt intensive management and urgent prioritization for liver transplantation.

2730 CESC.

The transition from compensated to decompensated cirrhosis is crucial, drastically reducing prognosis from a median survival of over 10 years to 2 years. There is currently an unmet need to accurately predict decompensation. We systematically reviewed and meta-analysed data regarding biomarker use to predict decompensation in individuals with compensated cirrhosis.

PubMed and EMBASE database searches were conducted for all studies from inception until February 2024. The study was carried out according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. The Quality of Prognosis Studies framework was used to assess the risk of bias. The meta-analysis was conducted with a random effects model using STATA software.

Of the 652 studies initially identified, 63 studies (n=31 438 patients) were included in the final review, examining 49 biomarkers. 25 studies (40%) were prospective with the majority of studies looking at all-cause decompensation (90%). The most well-studied biomarkers were platelets (n=17), Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (n=17) and albumin (n=16). A meta-analysis revealed elevated international normalised ratio was the strongest predictor of decompensation, followed by decreased albumin. However, high statistical heterogeneity was noted (l2 result of 96.3%). Furthermore, 21 studies were assessed as having a low risk of bias (34%), 26 (41%) moderate risk and 16 (25%) high risk.

This review highlights key biomarkers that should potentially be incorporated into future scoring systems to predict decompensation. However, future biomarker studies should be conducted with rigorous and standardised methodology to ensure robust and comparable data.

The Baveno VI criteria have set the stage for noninvasive assessment of compensated advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD). The algorithm combining liver stiffness measurement (LSM, <20 kPa) and platelet count (>150,000/μL) safely avoids screening endoscopy for varices needing treatment (VNT) but identifies only a relatively low number of patients. We aimed to evaluate the value of spleen stiffness measurement (SSM) using spleen-dedicated elastography in ruling out VNT.

In this real-life multicenter retrospective derivation-validation cohort, all consecutive patients with ACLD (defined by LSM ≥10 kPa) with available upper endoscopy, laboratory results, spleen diameter, LSM, and SSM measured with spleen-dedicated transient elastography were included. VNT were defined as medium-to-large varices or small varices with red spots.

In the derivation cohort (n = 201, 11.9% VNT), SSM demonstrated excellent capability at identifying VNT (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUROC] 0.88), outperforming LSM (AUROC 0.77, P = 0.03) and platelets (AUROC 0.73, P = 0.002). In comparison with Baveno VI criteria (33.8% spared endoscopies), the sequential Baveno VI plus SSM and a novel spleen size and stiffness model were able to increase the number of patients avoiding endoscopy (66.2% and 71.1%, respectively) without missing more than 5% of VNT. These findings were confirmed in an external validation cohort of patients with more advanced liver disease (n = 176, 34.7% VNT) in which the number of spared endoscopies tripled (27.3% and 31.3% for SSM-based algorithms) compared with Baveno VI criteria (8.5%).

Spleen stiffness-based algorithms are superior to Baveno VI criteria in ruling out VNT in patients with ACLD and double the number of patients avoiding screening endoscopy.

Patients with alcohol-associated cirrhosis and acute decompensation are considered critically ill and have a higher risk of short-term mortality. This study aimed to establish a nomogram to evaluate their 90-day survival and identify factors that affect disease progression.

We included patients from September 2008 to December 2016 (n = 387 in the derivation group) and from January 2017 to August 2020 (n = 157 in the validation group). LASSO regression and Cox multivariate risk regression were used to analyze the influencing factors of the 90-day mortality risk, and a nomogram was constructed. The performance of a model was analyzed based on the C-index, area under the receiver operating curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis.

Total bilirubin >10 upper limit of normal, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, lymphocyte and monocyte ratios ≤2.33, white blood cells, and hemoglobin were identified as independent risk factors affecting the 90-day mortality risk of patients and the nomogram was developed. A nomogram demonstrated excellent model predictive accuracy in both the derivation and validation cohorts (C-index: 0.976 and 0.945), which was better than other commonly used liver scoring models (p < 0.05). The nomogram also performed good calibration ability and more clinical net benefit. According to the nomogram score, patients were divided into high- and low-risk groups. Mortality was significantly higher in the high-risk group than in the low-risk group (p < 0.0001).

The nomogram could accurately predict the 90-day mortality risk in patients with alcohol-associated cirrhosis and acute decompensation, helping to identify high-risk patients and personalize treatment at their first admission.

Alcoholic hepatitis (AH) is a frequent precipitating event for the development of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), a syndrome characterised by organ failures due to immune dysfunction. The histological features of this complication are not well characterized. We investigated whether ACLF has specific histological characteristics.

Prospective cohort study in consecutive adult patients admitted between 03-2008 and 04-2021 to a tertiary referral centre with suspected AH. Diagnosis of AH was based on clinical presentation and confirmed by transjugular liver biopsy. All biopsies were assessed by a dedicated liver pathologist, blinded for clinical data and outcome. Diagnosis of ACLF was based on EASL-CLIF criteria. Histological and clinical characteristics of patients with and without ACLF at baseline were compared.

184 patients with biopsy-proven AH were enrolled. Median time from hospital admission to transjugular biopsy was 4.5 days (IQR 2-8). At baseline, ACLF was present in 73 patients (39.7%). Out of the 110 patients without ACLF at baseline, 30 (27.3%) developed ACLF within 28 days (median 7.5 days (IQR 2-20)). At baseline, ductular bilirubinostasis (DB) was the only histological feature significantly more frequently present in patients with ACLF compared to patients without ACLF (50.7% vs. 30.6%, p = 0.003). No clear association between histological features and the development of ACLF later on could be demonstrated.

In this well-defined cohort of patients with biopsy-proven AH, DB was associated with the presence of ACLF. This finding fits with the pathophysiology of this syndrome, which is characterized by systemic inflammation and an increased risk of infections.

Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) is the most effective therapy for complications of portal hypertension. However, clinical outcomes following TIPS placement vary widely between patients and identifying ideal candidates remains a challenge. Soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) is a circulating marker of immune activation that has previously been associated with liver inflammation, but its prognostic value in patients receiving TIPS is unknown. In the present study, we evaluated the potential clinical relevance of suPAR levels in patients undergoing TIPS insertion.

suPAR concentrations were measured by ELISA in hepatic vein (HV) and portal vein (PV) blood samples from 99 patients (training cohort) as well as peripheral venous blood samples from an additional 150 patients (validation cohort) undergoing TIPS placement. The association between suPAR levels and patient outcomes was assessed using Kaplan-Meier methods and Cox-regression analyses.

suPAR concentrations were significantly higher in HV samples compared to PV samples and correlated with PV concentration, the presence of ascites, renal injury, and consequently with the Child-Pugh and MELD scores. Patients with lower suPAR levels had significantly better short- and long-term survival after TIPS insertion, which remained robust after adjustment for confounders in multivariate Cox-regression analyses. Sensitivity analysis showed an improvement in risk prediction in patients stratified by Child-Pugh or MELD scores. In an independent validation cohort, higher levels of suPAR predicted poor transplant-free survival after TIPS, particularly in patients with Child-Pugh A/B cirrhosis.

suPAR is largely derived from the injured liver and its levels are predictive of outcome in patients undergoing TIPS. suPAR, as a surrogate of hepatic inflammation, may be used to stratify care in patients following TIPS insertion.

Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) is the most effective therapy for complications of portal hypertension. However, clinical outcomes following TIPS placement vary widely between patients and identification of the ideal candidates remains challenging. We show that soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR), a circulating marker of immune activation that can easily be measured in routine clinical practice, is a novel marker to identify patients who will benefit from TIPS and those who will not.

Alcohol-related liver disease (ARLD) accounts for over one third of all deaths from liver conditions, and mortality from alcohol-related liver disease has increased nearly five-fold over the last 30 years. Severe alcohol-related hepatitis almost always occurs in patients with a background of chronic liver disease with extensive fibrosis or cirrhosis, can precipitate 'acute on chronic' liver failure and has a high short-term mortality. Patients with alcohol-related liver disease have impaired immune responses, and increased susceptibility to infections, thus prompt diagnosis of infection and careful patient management is required. The identification of early and non-invasive diagnostic and prognostic biomarkers in ARLD remains an unresolved challenge. Easily calculated predictors of infection and mortality are required for use in patients who often exhibit variable symptoms and disease severity and may not always present in a specialized gastroenterology unit.

We have used a simple haematological analyser to rapidly measure circulating myeloid cell parameters across the ARLD spectrum.

We demonstrate for the first time that immature granulocyte (IG) counts correlate with markers of disease severity, and our data suggests that elevated counts are associated with increased short-term mortality and risk of infection. Other myeloid populations such as eosinophils and basophils also show promise. Thus IG count has the potential to serve alongside established markers such as neutrophil: lymphocyte ratio as a simply calculated predictor of mortality and risk of infectious complications in patients with alcohol-related hepatitis. This would allow identification of patients who may require more intensive management.

Acute decompensation (AD) of cirrhosis is associated with high short-term mortality, mainly due to the development of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). Thus, there is a need for biomarkers for early and accurate identification of AD patients with high risk of development of ACLF and mortality. Soluble triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells-1 (sTREM-1) is released from activated innate immune cells and correlated with various inflammatory processes.

To explore the prognostic value of sTREM-1 in patients with AD of cirrhosis.

A multicenter prospective cohort of 442 patients with cirrhosis hospitalized for AD was divided into a study cohort (n = 309) and validation cohort (n = 133). Demographic and clinical data were collected, and serum sTREM-1 was measured at admission. All enrolled patients were followed-up for at least 1 year.

In patients with AD and cirrhosis, serum sTREM-1 was an independent prognosis predictor for 1-year survival and correlated with liver, coagulation, cerebral and kidney failure. A new prognostic model of AD (P-AD) incorporating sTREM-1, blood urea nitrogen (BUN), total bilirubin (TBil), international normalized ratio (INR) and hepatic encephalopathy grades was established and performed better than the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), MELD-sodium (MELD-Na), chronic liver failure-consortium (CLIF-C) ACLF and CLIF-C AD scores. Additionally, sTREM-1 was increased in ACLF and predicted the development of ACLF during first 28-d follow-up. The ACLF risk score incorporating serum sTREM-1, BUN, INR, TBil and aspartate aminotransferase levels was established and significantly superior to MELD, MELD-Na, CLIF-C ACLF, CLIF-C AD and P-AD in predicting risk of ACLF development.

Serum sTREM-1 is a promising prognostic biomarker for ACLF development and mortality in patients with AD of cirrhosis.

Global coagulation tests offer a better tool to assess procoagulant and anticoagulant pathways, fibrinolysis and clot firmness and evaluate more accurately coagulation defects compared to conventional coagulation tests. Their prognostic role in acute-on-chronic liver disease (ACLF) or acute decompensation (AD) has not been well established.

To assess the properties and prognostic value of the coagulation profile measured by rotational thromboelastometry (ROTEM) in ACLF and AD.

84 consecutive patients (35 ACLF and 49 AD) were prospectively studied. Twenty healthy persons matched for age and gender were used as controls. 'Hypocoagulable' or 'hypercoagulable' profiles on admission were assessed based on nine ROTEM parameters and mortality was recorded at 30 and 90 days.

Individual ROTEM parameters denoted significantly more hypocoagulability in patients compared to controls. 'Hypocoagulable' profile (defined as a composite of 4 or more ROTEM parameters outside the range) was associated with more severe liver disease assessed either as MELD or Child-Pugh scores ( P  < 0.001 for both) and higher 30-day mortality (Log-rank P  = 0.012). 'Hypocoagulable' profile (HR 3.160, 95% CI 1.003-9.957, P  = 0.049) and ACLF status (HR 23.786, 95% CI 3.115-181.614, P  = 0.002) were independent predictors of 30-day mortality, in multivariate model. A higher early mortality rate was shown in ACLF patients with 'hypocoagulable' phenotype compared to those without (Log-rank P  = 0.017). 'Hypocoagulable' profile was not associated with mortality in AD.

'Hypocoagulable' profile was associated with more advanced liver disease and higher short-term mortality in patients with ACLF.

The PREDICT study recently showed that acutely decompensated (AD) patients with cirrhosis can present three different clinical phenotypes in the 90 days after admission: (1) pre-ACLF, developing acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF); (2) unstable decompensated cirrhosis (UDC), being re-admitted for AD without ACLF and (3) stable decompensated cirrhosis (SDC), not presenting readmission or ACLF. This study aimed to externally validate the existence of these three distinct trajectories and to identify predictors for the occurrence of each trajectory.

Baseline data, 3-month ACLF and readmission incidence and 1-year survival were analysed in a prospective cohort of patients admitted for AD. A multinomial multivariable model was used to evaluate the association between baseline features and clinical trajectories.

Of the 311 patients enrolled, 55% met the criteria for SDC, 18% for UDC and 27% for pre-ACLF, presenting a significantly different 1-year mortality: pre-ACLF 65%, UDC 46%, SDC 21% (p < .001). The presence of hepatic encephalopathy (HE) was associated with UDC (p = .043), while the absence of ascites to SDC (p = .017). Among laboratory parameters, an increase in MELD-Na (p = .001) and C-reactive protein (p = .009) and a decrease in haemoglobin (p = .004) and albumin (p = .008) levels were associated with pre-ACLF.

The present study confirms that AD patients have three different clinical trajectories with different mortality rates. Besides the severity of cirrhosis, the association with C-reactive protein supports the predominant role of systemic inflammation in ACLF pathophysiology. Finally, HE is associated with the UDC phenotype highlighting the need for better management of this complication after discharge.

Determining the need for liver transplantation remains critical in the management of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and liver failure syndromes (including acute liver failure and decompensated cirrhosis states). Conventional prognostic models utilize biomarkers of liver and non-liver failure and have limitations in their application. Novel biomarkers which predict regeneration may fulfil this niche. microRNA are implicated in health and disease and are present in abundance in the circulation. Despite this, they have not translated into mainstream clinical biomarkers.

We will discuss current challenges in the prognostication of patients with liver failure syndromes as well as for patients with HCC. We will discuss biomarkers implicated with liver regeneration. We then provide an overview of the challenges in developing microRNA into clinically tractable biomarkers. Finally, we will provide a scoping review of microRNA which may have potential as prognostic biomarkers in liver failure syndromes and HCC.

Novel biomarkers are needed to improve prognostic models in liver failure syndromes and HCC. Biomarkers associated with liver regeneration are currently lacking and may fulfil this niche. microRNA have the potential to be developed into clinically tractable biomarkers but a consensus on standardizing methodology and reporting is required prior to large-scale studies.

Baveno VII workshop recommends the use of preemptive TIPS (p-TIPS) in patients with cirrhosis and acute variceal bleeding (AVB) at high- risk of treatment failure. However, the criteria defining "high-risk" have low clinical accessibility or include subjective variables. We aimed to develop and externally validate a model for better identification of p-TIPS candidates.

The derivation cohort included 1554 patients with cirrhosis and AVB who were treated with endoscopy plus drug (n = 1264) or p-TIPS (n = 290) from 12 hospitals in China between 2010 and 2017. We first used competing risk regression to develop a score for predicting 6-week and 1-year mortality in patients treated with endoscopy plus drugs, which included age, albumin, bilirubin, international normalized ratio, white blood cell, creatinine, and sodium. The score was internally validated with the bootstrap method, which showed good discrimination (6 wk/1 y concordance-index: 0.766/0.740) and calibration, and outperformed other currently available models. In the second stage, the developed score was combined with treatment and their interaction term to predicate the treatment effect of p-TIPS (mortality risk difference between treatment groups) in the whole derivation cohort. The estimated treatment effect of p-TIPS varied substantially among patients. The prediction model had good discriminative ability (6 wk/1 y c -for-benefit: 0.696/0.665) and was well calibrated. These results were confirmed in the validation dataset of 445 patients with cirrhosis with AVB from 6 hospitals in China between 2017 and 2019 (6-wk/1-y c-for-benefit: 0.675/0.672).

We developed and validated a clinical prediction model that can help to identify individuals who will benefit from p-TIPS, which may guide clinical decision-making.

The European Foundation for the Study of Chronic Liver Failure (EF-CLIF) consortium suggested that the clinical courses after acute decompensation (AD) stratify the long-term prognosis: stable decompensated cirrhosis (SDC), unstable decompensated cirrhosis (UDC), pre acute-on-chronic liver failure (pre ACLF), and ACLF. However, previous studies included patients with a history of previous AD and had limitations associated with identifying the clinical factors related to prognosis after the first AD.

The prospective Korean Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure (KACLiF) cohort included cirrhotic patients who were hospitalised with first AD between July 2015 and August 2018. We analysed the factors associated with readmission after the first AD and compared the characteristics and prognosis among each subgroup to evaluate the risk factors for the occurrence of pre ACLF after AD.

A total of 746 cirrhotic patients who were hospitalised with first AD were enrolled. The subgroups consisted of SDC (n = 565), UDC (n = 29), pre ACLF (n = 28), and ACLF (n = 124). Of note, pre ACLF showed a poorer prognosis than ACLF. The risk factors associated with readmission within 3 months of first AD were non-variceal gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding, hepatic encephalopathy (HE), and high MELD score. Viral aetiology was associated with the occurrence of pre ACLF compared with alcohol aetiology regardless of baseline liver function status.

Cirrhotic patients with first AD who present as non-variceal GI bleeding and HE can easily relapse. Interestingly, the occurrence of AD with organ failure within 3 months of first AD (pre ACLF) has worse prognosis compared with the occurrence of organ failure at first AD (ACLF). In particular, cirrhotic patients with viral hepatitis with/without alcohol consumption showed poor prognosis compared to other aetiologies. Therefore, patients with ACLF after AD within 3 months should be treated more carefully and definitive treatment through LT should be considered.

Liver transplantation (LT) is the only treatment that can provide long-term survival for patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). Although several studies identify prognostic factors for patients in ACLF who do not undergo LT, there is scarce literature about prognostic factors after LT in this population.

Evaluate outcomes of ACLF patients undergoing LT, studying prognostic factors related to 1-year and 90 days post-LT.

Patients with ACLF undergoing LT between January 2005 and April 2021 were included. Variables such as chronic liver failure consortium (CLIF-C) ACLF values and ACLF grades were compared with the outcomes.

The ACLF survival of patients (n=25) post-LT at 90 days, 1, 3, 5 and 7 years, was 80, 76, 59.5, 54.1 and 54.1% versus 86.3, 79.4, 72.6, 66.5 and 61.2% for patients undergoing LT for other indications (n=344), (p=0.525). There was no statistical difference for mortality at 01 year and 90 days among patients with the three ACLF grades (ACLF-1 vs. ACLF-2 vs. ACLF-3) undergoing LT, as well as when compared to non-ACLF patients. CLIF-C ACLF score was not related to death outcomes. None of the other studied variables proved to be independent predictors of mortality at 90 days, 1 year, or overall.

LT conferred long-term survival to most transplant patients. None of the studied variables proved to be a prognostic factor associated with post-LT survival outcomes for patients with ACLF. Additional studies are recommended to clarify the prognostic factors of post-LT survival in patients with ACLF.

Patients with decompensated cirrhosis experience high mortality rates. Current prognostic scores, including the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), may underperform in settings other than in those they were initially developed. Novel biomarkers have been proposed to improve prognostication accuracy and even to predict development of complications.

We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis on novel urine and blood biomarkers and their ability to predict 90-day mortality in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. Secondary outcomes included 28-day and 1-year mortality, and development of acute-on-chronic liver failure, acute kidney injury and other complications. To overcome differences in units, temporal changes in assays and reporting heterogeneity, we used the ratio of means (RoM) as measure of association for assessing strength in predicting outcomes. An RoM>1 implies that the mean biomarker level is higher in those that develop the outcome than in those that do not.

Of 6629 unique references, 103 were included, reporting on 29 different biomarkers, with a total of 31 362 biomarker patients. Most studies were prospective cohorts of hospitalised patients (median Child-Pugh-Turcotte score of 9 and MELD score of 18). The pooled 90-day mortality rate was 0.27 (95% CI 0.24 to 0.29). The RoM for predicting 90-day mortality was highest for interleukin 6 (IL-6) (2.56, 95% CI 2.39 to 2.74), followed by urinary neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (uNGAL) (2.42, 95% CI 2.20 to 2.66) and copeptin (2.33, 95% CI 2.17 to 2.50). These RoMs were all higher than for MELD (1.44, 95% CI 1.42 to 1.46).

Novel biomarkers, including IL-6, uNGAL and copeptin, can probably improve prognostication of patients with decompensated cirrhosis compared with MELD alone.