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Parvataneni S, Haugh M, Sarkis Y, Baker B, Nephew LD, Ghabril MS, Vuppalanchi R, Orman ES, Chalasani NP, Desai AP, Harrison NE. Clinical decision instruments for predicting mortality in patients with cirrhosis seeking emergency department care. Acad Emerg Med 2025. [PMID: 39776102 DOI: 10.1111/acem.15088] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/27/2024] [Revised: 12/18/2024] [Accepted: 12/19/2024] [Indexed: 01/11/2025]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Clinical decision instruments (CDIs) could be useful to aid risk stratification and disposition of emergency department (ED) patients with cirrhosis. Our primary objective was to derive and internally validate a novel Cirrhosis Risk Instrument for Stratifying Post-Emergency department mortality (CRISPE) for the outcomes of 14- and 30-day post-ED mortality. Secondarily, we externally validated the existing Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores for explicit use in ED patients and prediction of the same outcomes. METHODS A cohort of 2093 adults with cirrhosis, at 16 sites in a statewide health system, was analyzed for 119 candidate variables available at ED disposition. LASSO with 10-fold cross-validation was used in variable selection for 14-day (CRISPE-14) and 30-day (CRISPE-30) logistic regression models. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was calculated for each variant of the CRISPE and MELD scores and compared via Delong's test. Predictions were compared to actual ED disposition for predictive value and reclassification statistics. RESULTS Median (interquartile range [IQR]) characteristics of the cohort were age 62 (53-70) years and MELD 3.0 13.0 (8.0-20.0). Mortality was 4.3% and 8.5% at 14 and 30 days, respectively. CRISPE-14 and CRISPE-30 outperformed each MELD variant, achieving AUROC of 0.824 (95% CI: 0.781-0.866) and 0.829 (0.796-0.861), respectively. MELD 3.0 AUROCs were 0.724 (0.667-0.781) and 0.715 (0.672-0.781), respectively. Compared to ED disposition, CRISPE-14, CRISPE-30, and MELD 3.0 significantly improved positive and negative predictive value and net reclassification index at multiple cutoffs. Applying CRISPE-30 (cutoff 4.5) favorably reclassified one net ED disposition for mortality for every 12 patients, while MELD 3.0 net reclassified one disposition per 84 patients. CONCLUSIONS CDIs may be useful in risk-stratifying ED patients with cirrhosis and aiding disposition decision making. The novel CRISPE CDI showed powerful performance and requires external validation, while the existing MELD 3.0 score has moderate performance and is now externally-validated in an ED population for short-term mortality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Swetha Parvataneni
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Indiana University, Indianapolis, Indiana, USA
| | - Michelle Haugh
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Indiana University, Indianapolis, Indiana, USA
| | - Yara Sarkis
- Department of Medicine, Indiana University, Indianapolis, Indiana, USA
| | - Brittany Baker
- Department of Medicine, Indiana University, Indianapolis, Indiana, USA
| | - Lauren D Nephew
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Indiana University, Indianapolis, Indiana, USA
| | - Marwan S Ghabril
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Indiana University, Indianapolis, Indiana, USA
| | - Raj Vuppalanchi
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Indiana University, Indianapolis, Indiana, USA
| | - Eric S Orman
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Indiana University, Indianapolis, Indiana, USA
| | - Naga P Chalasani
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Indiana University, Indianapolis, Indiana, USA
| | - Archita P Desai
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Indiana University, Indianapolis, Indiana, USA
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Gomez-Paz S, Lam E, Gonzalez-Mosquera L, Berookhim B, Mustacchia P, Fogel J, Rubinstein S. MELD-Na score, Acute Physiologic and Chronic Health Evaluation II score, and SOFA score and their association with mortality in critically ill COVID-19 patients with liver injury: A retrospective single-center study. Int J Crit Illn Inj Sci 2022; 12:222-228. [PMID: 36779216 PMCID: PMC9910115 DOI: 10.4103/ijciis.ijciis_29_22] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/16/2022] [Revised: 07/03/2022] [Accepted: 07/12/2022] [Indexed: 12/24/2022] Open
Abstract
Background The Acute Physiologic and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE-II), Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease modified for Sodium concentration (MELD-Na) scores are validated to predict disease mortality. We studied the prognostic utility of these scoring systems in critically ill coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients with liver injury. Methods This was a retrospective study of 291 confirmed COVID-19 and liver injury patients requiring intensive care unit level of care. These patients required supplemental oxygen requirement with fraction of inspired oxygen >55% and/or the use of vasopressor. MELD-Na, SOFA, and APACHE-II scores were adjusted. Outcomes were mortality and length of stay (LOS). Results SOFA (odds ratio: 0.78, 95% confidence interval: 0.63-0.98, P < 0.05) was associated with decreased odds for mortality. APACHE-II and MELD-Na were not associated with mortality or LOS. Conclusions We suggest that the novel nature of COVID-19 necessitates new scoring systems to predict outcomes in critically ill COVID-19 patients with liver injury.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sandra Gomez-Paz
- Department of Internal Medicine, Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Nassau University Medical Center, New York, USA
| | - Eric Lam
- Department of Internal Medicine, Nassau University Medical Center, New York, USA
| | | | - Brian Berookhim
- Department of Internal Medicine, Nassau University Medical Center, New York, USA
| | - Paul Mustacchia
- Department of Internal Medicine, Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Nassau University Medical Center, New York, USA
| | - Joshua Fogel
- Department of Business Management, Brooklyn College, New York, USA
| | - Sofia Rubinstein
- Department of Internal Medicine, Division of Nephrology and Hypertension, Nassau University Medical Center, New York, USA
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Flanagan L, Choi C, Shah V, Shah A, Parray A, Grube J, Fang C, Baredes S, Eloy JA. MELD-Na Score as a Predictor of Postoperative Complications in Ventral Skull Base Surgery. Skull Base Surg 2022. [DOI: 10.1055/a-1842-8668] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/18/2022]
Abstract
Background: The Model for End-stage Liver Disease-Sodium (MELD-Na) Score was designed for prognosis of chronic liver disease and has been predictive of outcomes in a variety of procedures. Few studies have investigated its utility in Otolaryngology. This study uses the MELD-Na score to investigate the association between liver health and ventral skull base surgical complications.
Methods: The National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database was used to identify patients who underwent ventral skull base procedures between 2005 and 2015. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to investigate the association between elevated MELD-Na score and postoperative complications.
Results: 1077 patients undergoing ventral skull base surgery with lab values required to calculate the MELD-Na score were identified. The mean age was 54.2 years. The mean MELD-Na score was 7.70 (SD=2.04). Univariate analysis showed that elevated MELD-Na score was significantly associated with increased age (58.6 vs. 53.8 years) and male gender (70.8% vs. 46.1%). Elevated MELD-Na score was associated with increased rates of postoperative acute renal failure, transfusion, septic shock, surgical complications, and extended length of hospital stay. On multivariate analysis, associations between elevated MELD-Na and increased risk of perioperative transfusions (OR 1.62, 95%CI 1.20-2.93, p=0.007) and surgical complications (OR 1.58, 95%CI 1.25-2.35, p=0.009) remained significant.
Conclusions: This analysis points to an association between liver health and postoperative complications in ventral skull base surgery. Future research investigating this association is warranted.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Vraj Shah
- Rutgers New Jersey Medical School, Newark, United States
| | - Aakash Shah
- Rutgers New Jersey Medical School, Newark, United States
| | | | - Jordon Grube
- Rutgers New Jersey Medical School, Newark, United States
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Long-term survival prediction for transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt in severe cirrhotic ascites: assessment of ten prognostic models. Eur J Gastroenterol Hepatol 2021; 33:1547-1555. [PMID: 32868654 DOI: 10.1097/meg.0000000000001890] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/13/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Patients with severe cirrhotic ascites have poor prognosis, yet individual patient survival varies greatly. Therefore, suitable prognostic models can be helpful in clinical decision making. The aim of this study was to evaluate and compare the performance of 10 scores in predicting transplant-free survival (TFS) after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) in severe cirrhotic ascites. METHODS Two hundred eighty consecutive cirrhotic patients with severe ascites undergoing TIPS between March 2006 and December 2017 were retrospectively screened and included from nine tertiary Chinese centers, consisting of 123 patients with refractory ascites and 157 with recurrent ascites. Discriminatory ability of these models was further assessed in the whole cohort and subgroups. RESULTS TFS rates of all 280 patients were 75.4, 65.7, and 53.6% at 6-month, 1-year, and 2-year follow-up, respectively. Compared with other prognostic systems, the integrated model for end-stage liver disease (iMELD, incorporating serum sodium and age) showed optimal performance in predicting 6-month, 1-year, and 2-year TFS. Cutoffs were determined according to c-index and were used to stratify patients into three strata presenting significantly different TFS for short-term and long-term: iMELD < 32, ≥32 but <38 and ≥38 (log-rank P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS The iMELD score proved to be the best prognostic model in predicting TFS in patients with severe cirrhotic ascites receiving TIPS. Meanwhile, the model could stratify patients in three strata to help guiding clinical practice.
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Iwasa M, Shigefuku R, Eguchi A, Tamai Y, Takei Y. Update on blood-based biomarkers for chronic liver diseases prognosis: Literature review and institutional experience. JGH Open 2021; 5:1250-1256. [PMID: 34816010 PMCID: PMC8593785 DOI: 10.1002/jgh3.12667] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/14/2021] [Revised: 10/05/2021] [Accepted: 10/06/2021] [Indexed: 12/16/2022]
Abstract
Liver cirrhosis is the final stage of chronic liver disease (CLD) and is associated with high morbidity and mortality. Various complications such as portal hypertension, ascites retention, hepatic encephalopathy, and hepatorenal syndrome deeply affect patient outcome. The most common tools to predict the outcome of a CLD patient include the following: assessing severity of portal hypertension; scoring systems such as the model of end-stage liver disease and Child-Pugh score and blood biomarkers related to complications and/or survival rate. In this article, we summarize recent studies of noninvasive markers for predicting impending complications related to CLD and discuss the clinical value of currently available blood biomarkers based on evidence from the literature. In addition, noninvasive blood biomarker assays for different prognostic functions were validated on 113 liver cirrhosis patients at our institution using Kaplan-Meier curve analysis to confirm that these markers can satisfactorily predict CLD-related patient death.
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Affiliation(s)
- Motoh Iwasa
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Mie University Graduate School of Medicine Tsu Japan
| | - Ryuta Shigefuku
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Mie University Graduate School of Medicine Tsu Japan
| | - Akiko Eguchi
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Mie University Graduate School of Medicine Tsu Japan
| | - Yasuyuki Tamai
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Mie University Graduate School of Medicine Tsu Japan
| | - Yoshiyuki Takei
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Mie University Graduate School of Medicine Tsu Japan
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Xiang Z, Li Y, Zhu C, Hong T, He X, Zhu H, Jiang D. Gastrointestinal Cancers and Liver Cirrhosis: Implications on Treatments and Prognosis. Front Oncol 2021; 11:766069. [PMID: 34746008 PMCID: PMC8567751 DOI: 10.3389/fonc.2021.766069] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/28/2021] [Accepted: 10/04/2021] [Indexed: 12/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Liver cirrhosis tends to increase the risk in the management of gastrointestinal tumors. Patients with gastrointestinal cancers and liver cirrhosis often have serious postoperative complications and poor prognosis after surgery. Multiple studies have shown that the stage of gastrointestinal cancers and the grade of cirrhosis can influence surgical options and postoperative complications. The higher the stage of cancer and the poorer the degree of cirrhosis, the less the surgical options and the higher the risk of postoperative complications. Therefore, in the treatment of patients with gastrointestinal cancer and liver cirrhosis, clinicians should comprehensively consider the cancer stage, cirrhosis grade, and possible postoperative complications. This review summarizes the treatment methods of patients with different gastrointestinal cancer complicated with liver cirrhosis.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ze Xiang
- Department of Gastroenterology, Yancheng Third People’s Hospital, Yancheng, China
- School of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China
- Chu Kochen Honors College, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China
| | - Yiqi Li
- School of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China
- Chu Kochen Honors College, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China
| | - Chaojie Zhu
- School of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China
- Chu Kochen Honors College, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China
- Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital, School of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China
| | - Tu Hong
- School of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China
- Chu Kochen Honors College, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China
| | - Xianglin He
- Chu Kochen Honors College, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China
| | - Hua Zhu
- Department of Gastroenterology, Yancheng Third People’s Hospital, Yancheng, China
| | - Danbin Jiang
- Department of Gastroenterology, Yancheng Third People’s Hospital, Yancheng, China
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Ye J, Wu Y, Li M, Gong X, Zhong B. Keratin 8 Mutations Were Associated With Susceptibility to Chronic Hepatitis B and Related Progression. J Infect Dis 2020; 221:464-473. [PMID: 31515557 DOI: 10.1093/infdis/jiz467] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/07/2019] [Accepted: 09/10/2019] [Indexed: 12/26/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Keratin 8 and 18 (K8/K18) are the exclusively expressed keratins intermediate filaments pair in hepatocytes that protect against liver injuries and viral infection. We aimed to explore the genetic link between keratin variants and chronic hepatitis B virus (CHB) infection in a large cohort from a high-epidemic area. METHODS Genomic deoxyribonucleic acid was isolated from patients, and Sanger sequencing was applied to analyze variations in exon regions of K8/18. Biochemical and functional analysis of novel mutations was also performed. RESULTS The 713 participants comprised 173 healthy controls and 540 patients, which covered chronic hepatitis (n = 174), decompensated cirrhosis (n = 192), and primary liver carcinoma (n = 174). The frequency of mutations in K8/18 was significantly higher among patients than among controls (8.15% vs 0.58%, P < .001). Significant differences were found between the chronic hepatitis subgroup and controls in multiple comparisons (6.32% vs 0.58%, P = .006). All 21 missense mutations (3.89%) were detected in the keratin 8 (K8), including 4 novel conserved missense variants (R469C, R469H, A447V, and K483T). Multivariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated a higher risk of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) and missense variants (odds ratio = 4.38, P = .035). Transfection of these variants caused keratin network disruption in vivo. CONCLUSIONS Novel K8 cytoskeleton-disrupting variants predispose toward ACLF in CHB.
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Affiliation(s)
- Junzhao Ye
- Department of Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangdong, China
| | - Yanqin Wu
- Department of Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangdong, China
| | - Minrui Li
- Department of Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangdong, China
| | - Xiaorong Gong
- Department of Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangdong, China
| | - Bihui Zhong
- Department of Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangdong, China
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Kim Y, Kim K, Jang I. Analysis of mortality prognostic factors using model for end-stage liver disease with incorporation of serum-sodium classification for liver cirrhosis complications: A retrospective cohort study. Medicine (Baltimore) 2019; 98:e17862. [PMID: 31702650 PMCID: PMC6855481 DOI: 10.1097/md.0000000000017862] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/11/2022] Open
Abstract
Since the progression of cirrhosis is accelerated each time a complication recurs, the management and treatment of the complication is critical in enhancement of the quality of life and expectation of life in patients. The use of model for end-stage liver disease with incorporation of serum-sodium (MELD-Na) with physiological indicators can be used to assess severity and differentiate therapeutic interventions.This study is aimed to determine the mean survival period and cumulative survival rate by classifying patients into high-risk and low-risk groups based on MELD-Na, a predictor of mortality in liver disease, and to investigate the mortality prognostic factors.A retrospective cohort study, which follows the STROBE checklist, was performed. 263 patients who were diagnosed with liver cirrhosis complications for the first time and hospitalized were selected as the subjects of this study. The collected data were analyzed based on the survival package provided by the statistical program R version 3.4.2.Subjects were classified into high-risk and low-risk groups using MELD-Na 14 points where sensitivity and specificity crossed the cut-off point. Gender, age, and primary caregiver were significant variables in the mortality high-risk group, and AST, albumin, and primary caregiver were significant variables in the mortality low-risk group. Based on these mortality prognostic factors, it is possible to present the factors affecting mortality in patients who were diagnosed with liver cirrhosis complications for the first time. The classification of patients by risk level could be the foundation to provide accurate guidelines for management and it is necessary to modify prognostic factors and apply nursing interventions to manage complications.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yuna Kim
- Department of Nursing, Samsung Medical Center
| | | | - Insil Jang
- Department of Nursing, University of Ulsan, Ulsan, South Korea
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Chiu E, Marr K, Taylor L, Lam L, Stapleton M, Tandon P, Raman M. Malnutrition Impacts Health-Related Quality of Life in Cirrhosis: A Cross-Sectional Study. Nutr Clin Pract 2019; 35:119-125. [PMID: 30806489 DOI: 10.1002/ncp.10265] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/12/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND To explore the influence of nourishment state measured by various nutrition assessment tools (NATs) on health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in a pretransplant population with cirrhosis. METHODS We collected demographic, nutrition assessment, and disease specific data on 81 patients. HRQoL was measured with the Short-Form 36 and divided into 8 subscales. Significant relationships between NATs and HRQoL were examined using independent sample t-tests, χ2 analyses, correlations, and multiple and logistic regression adjusted for age and gender. RESULTS Study mean age was 54.2 years (SD 10.4 years), and 57% were male. Subjective Global Assessment (SGA) was significantly related to all HRQoL subscales, except bodily pain and mental health. In the adjusted regression models, general health, vitality, and social functioning were all significantly lower in patients with poorer nutrition status measured using SGA (adjusted R2 = 11%, β = -0.34, p < 0.01; adjusted R2 = 8%, β = -0.27, P < 0.05; and adjusted R2 = 12%, β = -0.38, P < 0.01, Q4 respectively). Physical functioning improved as hand grip strength increased (adjusted R2 = 20%, β = 0.36, P < 0.01). MELDNa demonstrated a significant negative relationship with role-emotional (adjusted R2 = 3%, β = 0.25, P < 0.05), and mid-arm circumference did not demonstrate any significant relationships with HRQoL. CONCLUSIONS Malnutrition assessed by SGA is associated with lower HRQoL in patients with cirrhosis. Future research should identify if nutrition interventions can effectively improve HRQoL in cirrhosis patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Elaine Chiu
- Department of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada
| | - Kaleb Marr
- Department of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada
| | - Lorian Taylor
- Department of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada
| | - Louisa Lam
- Department of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada.,Alberta Health Services, Calgary, Alberta, Canada
| | - Melanie Stapleton
- Department of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada
| | - Puneeta Tandon
- Department of Medicine, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
| | - Maitreyi Raman
- Department of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada
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Effects of Underlying Liver Disease on 30-Day Outcomes After Posterior Lumbar Fusion. World Neurosurg 2019; 125:e711-e716. [PMID: 30735863 DOI: 10.1016/j.wneu.2019.01.160] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/15/2018] [Revised: 01/15/2019] [Accepted: 01/17/2019] [Indexed: 01/15/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To examine the effects of underlying liver disease on 30-day postoperative complications after elective posterior lumbar fusion (PLF). METHODS We performed a retrospective American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program study of patients who had undergone elective PLF from 2011 to 2014. The patients were divided into 2 groups stratified by the presence of liver disease, assessed using the Model for End-stage Liver Disease plus sodium score (liver disease, ≥10; no liver disease, <10). The baseline patient and operative characteristics were compared between the 2 groups using univariate analysis. Subsequent multivariate regression analysis adjusted for differences in baseline characteristics was performed to identify 30-day postoperative complications independently associated with liver disease. RESULTS Of 2965 patients, 55.9% had underlying liver disease. Those with liver disease were more frequently aged >65 years, male, and underweight or overweight and had had American Society of Anesthesiologists class ≥3, diabetes, pulmonary comorbidity, cardiac comorbidity, renal comorbidity, bleeding disorder, preoperative dyspnea at rest, and a prolonged operative time. On univariate analysis, patients with liver disease had a greater incidence of cardiac complications, pulmonary complications, renal complications, blood transfusion, sepsis, urinary tract infection, and prolonged hospitalization. On adjusted multivariate regression analysis, liver disease was independently associated with renal complications, pulmonary complications, sepsis, urinary tract infection, prolonged hospitalization, and blood transfusion. CONCLUSIONS As the long-term survival of patients with liver disease continues to increase, a better understanding of the relationship between liver dysfunction and surgical outcomes is needed. The identification of modifiable risk factors would allow them to be addressed and optimized preoperatively to decrease the incidence and severity of complications and improve patient outcomes after PLF.
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Han EC, Ryoo SB, Park JW, Yi JW, Oh HK, Choe EK, Ha HK, Park BK, Moon SH, Jeong SY, Park KJ. Oncologic and surgical outcomes in colorectal cancer patients with liver cirrhosis: A propensity-matched study. PLoS One 2017; 12:e0178920. [PMID: 28586376 PMCID: PMC5460849 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0178920] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/16/2017] [Accepted: 05/22/2017] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Abstract
The management of colorectal cancer in patients with liver cirrhosis requires a thorough understanding of both diseases. This study evaluated the effect of liver cirrhosis on oncologic and surgical outcomes and prognostic factors in colorectal cancer patients. Fifty-five consecutive colorectal cancer patients with liver cirrhosis underwent colorectal resection (LC group). Using a prospectively maintained database, these patients were matched 1:4 using propensity scoring with R programming language, package "MatchIt" and "optmatch" by sex, age, cancer location, and tumor stage with 220 patients without liver cirrhosis (non-LC group), resulting in 275 patients. The 5-year overall survival (OS) was significantly worse in the LC group than in the non-LC group (46.7% vs. 76.2% respectively, P < 0.001); however, the 5-year proportion of recurrence free (PRF) rates were similar (73.1% vs. 84.5% respectively, P = 0.094). On multivariate analysis of the LC group, tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) stage ≥III disease, venous invasion, and a model for end-stage liver disease plus serum sodium (MELD-Na) score >10 were prognostic factors for OS. However, the OS was not different between the LC group with MELD-Na score ≤10 and the non-LC group (5-year OS rate, TNM stage ≤II, 85.7 vs 89.5%, p = 0.356; TNM stage ≥III, 41.1 vs 66.2%, p = 0.061). Colorectal cancer patients with liver cirrhosis have poorer OS compared to those without liver cirrhosis; however, the PRF rates are similar. It might be due to the mortality from the liver, and surgical treatment should be actively considered for patients with MELD-Na score <10.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eon Chul Han
- Department of Surgery, Dongnam Institute of Radiological and Medical Sciences, Busan, Korea
| | - Seung-Bum Ryoo
- Department of Surgery, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
- * E-mail:
| | - Ji Won Park
- Department of Surgery, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | - Jin Wook Yi
- Department of Surgery, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | - Heung-Kwon Oh
- Department of Surgery, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seongnam, Korea
| | - Eun Kyung Choe
- Seoul National University Hospital Gangnam Center, Seoul, Korea
| | - Heon-Kyun Ha
- Department of Surgery, Seonam University College of Medicine Myongji Hospital, Goyang, Gyeonggi Province, Korea
| | - Byung Kwan Park
- Department of Surgery, Chung-Ang University Hospital, Seoul, Korea
| | - Sang Hui Moon
- Department of Surgery, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | - Seung-Yong Jeong
- Department of Surgery, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | - Kyu Joo Park
- Department of Surgery, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
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Chen RC, Wang XD, Dong JZ, Lin Z, Wu JM, Cai YJ, Shi KQ. A MELD-based nomogram for predicting 3-month mortality of patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure. Clin Chim Acta 2017; 468:195-200. [DOI: 10.1016/j.cca.2017.03.005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/08/2016] [Revised: 03/02/2017] [Accepted: 03/06/2017] [Indexed: 12/13/2022]
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Györi GP, Silberhumer GR, Rahmel A, de Vries E, Soliman T, Zehetmayer S, Rogiers X, Berlakovich GA. Impact of dynamic changes in MELD score on survival after liver transplantation - a Eurotransplant registry analysis. Liver Int 2016; 36:1011-7. [PMID: 26814059 DOI: 10.1111/liv.13075] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/01/2015] [Accepted: 01/14/2016] [Indexed: 02/13/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND & AIMS With restricted numbers of available organs, futility in liver transplantation has to be avoided. The concept of dynamic changes in MELD score (DeltaMELD) has previously been shown to be a simple tool to identify patients with the greatest risk of death after transplantation. Aim was to validate this concept with the Eurotransplant (ET) database. METHODS A retrospective registry analysis was performed on all patients listed for liver transplantation within ET between 2006 and 2011. Patients <18 years of age, acute liver failure, malignancy and patients listed for retransplantation were excluded. Influence of MELD at listing (MELDon), MELD at transplantation (MELDoff), DeltaMELD, age, sex, underlying disease and time on the waiting list on overall survival after liver transplantation were evaluated. RESULTS A total of 16 821 patients were listed for liver transplantation, 8096 met the inclusion criteria. Age, MELD on and DeltaMELD showed significant influence on survival on the waiting list. Age and DeltaMELD showed influence on survival after liver transplantation, with DeltaMELD>10 showing a 1.6-fold increased risk of death. CONCLUSION The concept of DeltaMELD was validated in a large, prospective data set. It provides a simple tool to identify patients with increased risk of death after liver transplantation and might help improve long-term results.
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Affiliation(s)
- Georg P Györi
- Department of Surgery, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
| | | | - Axel Rahmel
- Eurotransplant Foundation, Leiden, the Netherlands
| | | | - Thomas Soliman
- Department of Surgery, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
| | - Sonja Zehetmayer
- Center for Medical Statistics, Informatics and Intelligent Systems, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
| | - Xavier Rogiers
- Department of Surgery and Transplantation, University Hospital and Medical School, Gent, Belgium
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Schilsky ML, Moini M. Advances in liver transplantation allocation systems. World J Gastroenterol 2016; 22:2922-2930. [PMID: 26973389 PMCID: PMC4779916 DOI: 10.3748/wjg.v22.i10.2922] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/31/2015] [Revised: 12/26/2015] [Accepted: 01/17/2016] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Abstract
With the growing number of patients in need of liver transplantation, there is a need for adopting new and modifying existing allocation policies that prioritize patients for liver transplantation. Policy should ensure fair allocation that is reproducible and strongly predictive of best pre and post transplant outcomes while taking into account the natural history of the potential recipients liver disease and its complications. There is wide acceptance for allocation policies based on urgency in which the sickest patients on the waiting list with the highest risk of mortality receive priority. Model for end-stage liver disease and Child-Turcotte-Pugh scoring system, the two most universally applicable systems are used in urgency-based prioritization. However, other factors must be considered to achieve optimal allocation. Factors affecting pre-transplant patient survival and the quality of the donor organ also affect outcome. The optimal system should have allocation prioritization that accounts for both urgency and transplant outcome. We reviewed past and current liver allocation systems with the aim of generating further discussion about improvement of current policies.
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15
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Maruyama H, Kondo T, Kiyono S, Sekimoto T, Takahashi M, Okugawa H, Yokosuka O. Relationship and interaction between serum sodium concentration and portal hemodynamics in patients with cirrhosis. J Gastroenterol Hepatol 2015; 30:1635-42. [PMID: 25968445 DOI: 10.1111/jgh.13006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 04/14/2015] [Indexed: 12/14/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIM To examine the relationship between hyponatremia and portal hemodynamics and their effect on the prognosis of cirrhosis. METHODS Portal hemodynamic parameters measured by Doppler ultrasound and serum sodium concentrations were examined in 153 cirrhosis patients (mean age 62.2 ± 12.0 years; median observation period, 34.1 m). RESULTS Study participants included 16 patients with hyponatremia (Na < 135 mEq/L), who showed a significantly greater frequency of possessing a splenorenal shunt (SRS; P = 0.0068), and 137 patients without hyponatremia. Serum sodium concentrations were significantly lower in patients with SRS than in those without (P = 0.0193). An increased prothrombin time-international normalized ratio was a significant predictive factor for developing hyponatremia a year later (8/96; Hazard ratio 14.415; P = 0.028). The cumulative survival rate was significantly lower in patients with hyponatremia (46.7% at 1 and 3 years) than in those without (91.8% at 1 year, 76.8% at 3 years; P < 0.001). The cumulative survival rate was significantly lower in patients who had developed hyponatremia after 1 year (100% at 1 year, 62.5% at 3 years) than those who had not (100% at 1 year, 89.0% at 3 years; P < 0.001). The cumulative survival rate was significantly worse in patients with both hyponatremia and SRS (20% at 1 year). CONCLUSIONS There was a close linkage between the serum sodium concentration and portal hemodynamic abnormality, presence of SRS, and their interaction may negatively influence the prognoses in cirrhosis.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hitoshi Maruyama
- Department of Gastroenterology and Nephrology, Chiba University Graduate School of Medicine, Chiba, Japan
| | - Takayuki Kondo
- Department of Gastroenterology and Nephrology, Chiba University Graduate School of Medicine, Chiba, Japan
| | - Soichiro Kiyono
- Department of Gastroenterology and Nephrology, Chiba University Graduate School of Medicine, Chiba, Japan
| | - Tadashi Sekimoto
- Department of Gastroenterology and Nephrology, Chiba University Graduate School of Medicine, Chiba, Japan
| | - Masanori Takahashi
- Department of Gastroenterology and Nephrology, Chiba University Graduate School of Medicine, Chiba, Japan
| | - Hidehiro Okugawa
- Department of Gastroenterology and Nephrology, Chiba University Graduate School of Medicine, Chiba, Japan
| | - Osamu Yokosuka
- Department of Gastroenterology and Nephrology, Chiba University Graduate School of Medicine, Chiba, Japan
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16
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Cunniffe N, Munby H, Chan S, Saatci D, Edison E, Carpenter RHS, Massey D. Using saccades to diagnose covert hepatic encephalopathy. Metab Brain Dis 2015; 30:821-8. [PMID: 25586511 DOI: 10.1007/s11011-014-9647-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/14/2014] [Accepted: 12/29/2014] [Indexed: 01/18/2023]
Abstract
Covert Hepatic Encephalopathy (CHE), previously known as Minimal Hepatic Encephalopathy, is a subtle cognitive defect found in 30-70 % of cirrhosis patients. It has been linked to poor quality of life, impaired fitness to drive, and increased mortality: treatment is possible. Despite its clinical significance, diagnosis relies on psychometric tests that have proved unsuitable for use in a clinical setting. We investigated whether measurement of saccadic latency distributions might be a viable alternative. We collected data on 35 cirrhosis patients at Addenbrooke's Hospital, Cambridge, with no evidence of clinically overt encephalopathy, and 36 age-matched healthy controls. Performance on standard psychometric tests was evaluated to determine those patients with CHE as defined by the World Congress of Gastroenterology. We then compared visually-evoked saccades between those with CHE and those without, as well as reviewing blood test results and correlating saccadic latencies with biochemical parameters and prognostic scores. Cirrhosis patients have significantly longer median saccadic latencies than healthy controls. Those with CHE had significantly prolonged saccadic latencies when compared with those without CHE. Analysis of a cirrhosis patient's saccades can diagnose CHE with a sensitivity of 75 % and a specificity of 75 %. We concluded that analysis of a cirrhosis patient's saccadic latency distributions is a fast and objective measure that can be used as a diagnostic tool for CHE. This improved early diagnosis could direct avoidance of high-risk activities such as driving, and better inform treatment strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nicholas Cunniffe
- Department of Physiology, Development and Neuroscience, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
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17
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Zhang Q, Li Y, Han T, Nie C, Cai J, Liu H, Liu Y. Comparison of current diagnostic criteria for acute-on-chronic liver failure. PLoS One 2015; 10:e0122158. [PMID: 25785855 PMCID: PMC4364726 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0122158] [Citation(s) in RCA: 35] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/25/2014] [Accepted: 02/07/2015] [Indexed: 02/07/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS Currently, acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) has been defined differently by Asia-Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver (APASL) and Chinese Medical Association (CMA) in the East, as well as EASL-Chronic Liver Failure (EASL-CLIF) Consortium in the West. This study aimed to compare current different diagnostic criteria for ACLF and to determine predictors of the progression into post-enrollment EASL-CLIF ACLF from ACLF at enrollment defined by APASL alone or by both APASL and CMA but not by EASL-CLIF Consortium. METHODS We retrospectively analyzed clinical data from 394 eligible cirrhotic patients fulfilling at least APASL criteria for ACLF at enrollment. Patient survival was estimated by Kaplan-Meier analysis and subsequently compared by log-rank test. Independent predictors of disease progression were determined using univariate analysis and multivariate Cox regression analysis. RESULTS The 90-day mortality rate was 13.1% in patients with ACLF at enrollment defined by APASL alone, 25.3% in patients with ACLF at enrollment defined by both APASL and CMA but not EASL-CLIF Consortium, and 59.3% in patients with ACLF at enrollment defined by EASL-CLIF Consortium in addition to APASL. Baseline Chronic Liver Failure-Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (CLIF-SOFA) score, and the maximum rising rates of CLIF-SOFA score, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Sodium (MELD-Na) score and total bilirubin were independent predictors of progression into post-enrollment EASL-CLIF ACLF from ACLF at enrollment defined by APASL alone or by both APASL and CMA but not by EASL-CLIF Consortium. CONCLUSION Different diagnostic criteria for ACLF caused different patient prognosis. So, it is imperative to formulate a unifying diagnostic criteria for ACLF worldwide, thus attaining early identification and treatment, and eventual improvement in survival of ACLF patients. Baseline CLIF-SOFA score, and the maximum rising rates of CLIF-SOFA score, MELD-Na score and total bilirubin may early predict post-enrollment development of EASL-CLIF ACLF.
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Affiliation(s)
- Qian Zhang
- The Third Central Clinical College of Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, China
- Department of Hepatology, Tianjin Third Central Hospital, Tianjin, China
| | - Ying Li
- Department of Hepatology, Tianjin Third Central Hospital, Tianjin, China
- Tianjin Institute of Hepatobiliary Disease, Tianjin, China
- Tianjin Key Laboratory of Artificial Cells, Tianjin, China
| | - Tao Han
- Department of Hepatology, Tianjin Third Central Hospital, Tianjin, China
- Tianjin Institute of Hepatobiliary Disease, Tianjin, China
- Tianjin Key Laboratory of Artificial Cells, Tianjin, China
| | - CaiYun Nie
- The Third Central Clinical College of Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, China
- Department of Hepatology, Tianjin Third Central Hospital, Tianjin, China
| | - JunJun Cai
- The Third Central Clinical College of Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, China
- Department of Hepatology, Tianjin Third Central Hospital, Tianjin, China
| | - Hua Liu
- Department of Hepatology, Tianjin Third Central Hospital, Tianjin, China
- Tianjin Institute of Hepatobiliary Disease, Tianjin, China
- Tianjin Key Laboratory of Artificial Cells, Tianjin, China
| | - Ying Liu
- Department of Hepatology, Tianjin Third Central Hospital, Tianjin, China
- Tianjin Institute of Hepatobiliary Disease, Tianjin, China
- Tianjin Key Laboratory of Artificial Cells, Tianjin, China
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Fayad L, Narciso-Schiavon JL, Lazzarotto C, Ronsoni MF, Wildner LM, Bazzo ML, Schiavon LDL, Dantas-Corrêa EB. The performance of prognostic models as predictors of mortality in patients with acute decompensation of cirrhosis. Ann Hepatol 2015; 14:83-92. [PMID: 25536645 DOI: 10.1016/s1665-2681(19)30804-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/22/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Although several prognostic models have been proposed for cirrhotic patients listed for transplantation, the performance of these scores as predictors of mortality in patients admitted for acute decompensation of cirrhosis has not been satisfactorily investigated. AIMS To study MELD, MELD-Na, MESO, iMELD, Refit-MELD and Refit MELD-Na models as prognostic predictors in cirrhotic patients admitted for acute decompensation, and to compare their performance between admission and 48 hours of hospitalization to predict in-hospital mortality. MATERIAL AND METHODS This cohort study included cirrhotic patients admitted to hospital due to complications of the disease. Individuals were evaluated on admission and after 48 h of hospitalization, and mortality was evaluated during the present admission. RESULTS One hundred and twenty-three subjects with a mean age of 54.26 ± 10.79 years were included; 76.4% were male. Mean MELD score was 16.43 ± 7.08 and 52.0% of patients were Child-Pugh C. Twenty-seven patients (22.0%) died during hospitalization. Similar areas under the curve (AUROCs) for prognosis of mortality were observed when different models were compared on admission (P > 0.05) and after 48 h of hospitalization (P > 0.05). When models executed after 48 h of hospitalization were compared to their corresponding model calculated on admission, significantly higher AUROCs were obtained for all models (P < 0.05), except for MELD-Na (P = 0.075) and iMELD (P = 0.119). CONCLUSION The studied models showed similar accuracy as predictors of in-hospital mortality in cirrhotic patients admitted for acute decompensation. However, the performance of these models was significantly better when applied 48 h after admission when compared to their calculation on admission.
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Affiliation(s)
- Leonardo Fayad
- Department of Internal Medicine, Division of Gastroenterology, Federal University of Santa Catarina (UFSC). Brazil
| | - Janaína Luz Narciso-Schiavon
- Department of Internal Medicine, Division of Gastroenterology, Federal University of Santa Catarina (UFSC). Brazil
| | - César Lazzarotto
- Department of Internal Medicine, Division of Gastroenterology, Federal University of Santa Catarina (UFSC). Brazil
| | - Marcelo Fernando Ronsoni
- Department of Internal Medicine, Division of Gastroenterology, Federal University of Santa Catarina (UFSC). Brazil
| | | | - Maria Luiza Bazzo
- Department of Clinical Analysis, Federal University of Santa Catarina (UFSC). Brazil
| | - Leonardo de Lucca Schiavon
- Department of Internal Medicine, Division of Gastroenterology, Federal University of Santa Catarina (UFSC). Brazil
| | - Esther Buzaglo Dantas-Corrêa
- Department of Internal Medicine, Division of Gastroenterology, Federal University of Santa Catarina (UFSC). Brazil
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19
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The impact of Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Na in predicting morbidity and mortality following elective colon cancer surgery irrespective of underlying liver disease. Am J Surg 2014; 207:520-6. [DOI: 10.1016/j.amjsurg.2013.06.008] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/24/2013] [Revised: 06/01/2013] [Accepted: 06/01/2013] [Indexed: 12/28/2022]
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20
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Kim JJ, Kim JH, Koo JK, Choi YJ, Ko SY, Choe WH, Kwon SY. The Refit model for end-stage liver disease-Na is not a better predictor of mortality than the Refit model for end-stage liver disease in patients with cirrhosis and ascites. Clin Mol Hepatol 2014; 20:47-55. [PMID: 24757658 PMCID: PMC3992329 DOI: 10.3350/cmh.2014.20.1.47] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/10/2013] [Revised: 02/07/2014] [Accepted: 02/21/2014] [Indexed: 12/14/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND/AIMS The modification of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scoring system (Refit MELD) and the modification of MELD-Na (Refit MELDNa), which optimized the MELD coefficients, were published in 2011. We aimed to validate the superiority of the Refit MELDNa over the Refit MELD for the prediction of 3-month mortality in Korean patients with cirrhosis and ascites. METHODS We reviewed the medical records of patients admitted with hepatic cirrhosis and ascites to the Konkuk University Hospital between January 2006 and December 2011. The Refit MELD and Refit MELDNa were compared using the predictive value of the 3-month mortality, as assessed by the Child-Pugh score. RESULTS In total, 530 patients were enrolled, 87 of whom died within 3 months. Alcohol was the most common etiology of their cirrhosis (n=271, 51.1%), and the most common cause of death was variceal bleeding (n=20, 23%). The areas under the receiver operating curve (AUROCs) for the Child-Pugh, Refit MELD, and Refit MELDNa scores were 0.754, 0.791, and 0.764 respectively; the corresponding values when the analysis was performed only in patients with persistent ascites (n=115) were 0.725, 0.804, and 0.796, respectively. The significant difference found among the Child-Pugh, Refit MELD, and Refit MELDNa scores was between the Child-Pugh score and Refit MELD in patients with persistent ascites (P=0.039). CONCLUSIONS Refit MELD and Refit MELDNa exhibited good predictability for 3-month mortality in patients with cirrhosis and ascites. However, Refit MELDNa was not found to be a better predictor than Refit MELD, despite the known relationship between hyponatremia and mortality in cirrhotic patients with ascites.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jun Jae Kim
- Digestive Disease Center, Department of Internal Medicine, Konkuk University School of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | - Jeong Han Kim
- Digestive Disease Center, Department of Internal Medicine, Konkuk University School of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | - Ja Kyung Koo
- Digestive Disease Center, Department of Internal Medicine, Konkuk University School of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | - Yun Jung Choi
- Digestive Disease Center, Department of Internal Medicine, Konkuk University School of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | - Soon Young Ko
- Digestive Disease Center, Department of Internal Medicine, Konkuk University School of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | - Won Hyeok Choe
- Digestive Disease Center, Department of Internal Medicine, Konkuk University School of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | - So Young Kwon
- Digestive Disease Center, Department of Internal Medicine, Konkuk University School of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
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Abstract
The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score incorporates serum bilirubin, creatinine, and the international normalized ratio (INR) into a formula that provides a continuous variable that is a very accurate predictor of 90-day mortality in patients with cirrhosis. It is currently utilized in the United States to prioritize deceased donor organ allocation for patients listed for liver transplantation. The MELD score is superior to other prognostic models in patients with end-stage liver disease, such as the Child-Turcotte-Pugh score, since it uses only objective criteria, and its implementation in 2002 led to a sharp reduction in the number of people waiting for liver transplant and reduced mortality on the waiting list without affecting posttransplant survival. Although mainly adopted for use in patients waiting for liver transplant, the MELD score has also proved to be an effective predictor of outcome in other situations, such as patients with cirrhosis going for surgery and patients with fulminant hepatic failure or alcoholic hepatitis. Several variations of the original MELD score, involving the addition of serum sodium or looking at the change in MELD over time, have been examined, and these may slightly improve its accuracy. The MELD score does have limitations in situations where the INR or creatinine may be elevated due to reasons other than liver disease, and its implementation for organ allocation purposes does not take into consideration several conditions that benefit from liver transplantation. The application of the MELD score in prioritizing patients for liver transplantation has been successful, but further studies and legislation are required to ensure a fair and equitable system.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tsang Lau
- Division of Liver Diseases, Mount Sinai School of Medicine, New York, USA
| | - Jawad Ahmad
- Division of Liver Diseases, Mount Sinai School of Medicine, New York, USA
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Shu CC, Lin YF, Hsu NC, Ko WJ. Risk factors for 30-day readmission in general medical patients admitted from the emergency department: a single centre study. Intern Med J 2012; 42:677-82. [PMID: 21790921 DOI: 10.1111/j.1445-5994.2011.02562.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 28] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/14/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Overcrowding in emergency departments (ED) around the world is an increasingly serious problem with an adverse impact on both patient flow and patient outcomes. A significant contributing factor to ED overcrowding is possibly due to readmission. Risk factors for readmission in patients admitted from ED are rarely studied, particularly in Asian countries where the length of stay is reportedly longer. METHODS A retrospective study of patients admitted to general medical wards from the ED of a referral centre in northern Taiwan from November 2009 to April 2010 was conducted. The primary outcome was 30-day hospital readmission and clinical characteristics were analysed for predictors of readmission. RESULTS Of the recruited 2698 patients, 451 (16.7%) were readmitted within 30 days after discharge. Age, gender, marital status and the activities of daily living (Barthel's score) were not associated with 30-day readmission. Higher Charlson score ((score 2-4) hazard ratio (HR): 1.42, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.07-1.89; (score >4) HR: 1.93, 95% CI: 1.37-2.73), longer hospital stay ((8-14 days) HR: 1.51, 95% CI: 1.17-1.95; (15-28 days) HR: 1.64, 95% CI: 1.22-2.19; (>28 days) HR: 1.97, 95% CI: 1.43-2.71), and presence of underlying active malignancy (HR: 1.66, 95% CI: 1.27-2.16) and anaemia (HR: 1.26, 95% CI: 1.02-1.55) were independently associated with readmission. CONCLUSION Medical patients admitted from the ED of a referral centre have a 30-day readmission rate of 16.7%. Post-discharge care should focus on patients with higher Charlson score, longer hospitalisation, anaemia and underlying active malignancy, which are independent predictive factors for 30-day readmission.
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Affiliation(s)
- C-C Shu
- Department of Traumatology, National Taiwan University Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
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Suk KT, Kim CH, Park SH, Sung HT, Choi JY, Han KH, Hong SH, Kim DY, Yoon JH, Kim YS, Baik GH, Kim JB, Kim DJ. Comparison of hepatic venous pressure gradient and two models of end-stage liver disease for predicting the survival in patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis. J Clin Gastroenterol 2012; 46:880-886. [PMID: 22810110 DOI: 10.1097/mcg.0b013e31825f2622] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
GOALS We evaluated the efficacy of initial and follow-up hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG), models of end-stage liver disease (MELD), and MELD-Na for predicting the survival of patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis (LC). BACKGROUND MELD with/without Na score and HVPG have been important predictors of mortality in patients with LC. STUDY Between January 2006 and 2011, a total of 57 patients with decompensated LC, all of whom underwent >2 HVPG measurements for the confirmation of propranolol dosing, were enrolled. MELD and MELD-Na scores were calculated on the day of HVPG measurement. The prognostic accuracy of the initial and follow-up HVPG, MELD, and MELD-Na were analyzed, and independent factors for mortality were evaluated. RESULTS Ten patients (17.5%) died from LC. Initial HVPG (0.883), initial MELD-Na (0.877), follow-up HVPG (0.829), and follow-up MELD-Na (0.802) showed good area under the receiver operating characteristic curve scores in predicting 1-year mortality. In predicting 2-year mortality, only follow-up HVPG (0.821, cut-off value 18 mm Hg) showed good score. Overall area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (initial and follow-up) were 0.843 and 0.864 in HVPG, 0.721 and 0.674 in MELD, and 0.762 and 0.715 in MELD-Na, respectively. In the Cox regression analysis, only follow-up HVPG (P=0.02; odds ratio, 1.11) was associated with mortality. CONCLUSIONS The efficacy of HVPG for predicting mortality is excellent compared with that of MELD or MELD-Na. Therefore, aside from the confirmation of adequate propranolol dosing, HVPG may be needed for predicting the survival of patients with decompensated LC.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ki Tae Suk
- Department of Internal Medicine #Molecular Medicine, Hallym University College of Medicine, Chuncheon, South Korea
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Hung HH, Chang CJ, Hou MC, Liao WC, Chan CC, Huang HC, Lin HC, Lee FY, Lee SD. Efficacy of non-selective β-blockers as adjunct to endoscopic prophylactic treatment for gastric variceal bleeding: a randomized controlled trial. J Hepatol 2012; 56:1025-1032. [PMID: 22266602 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhep.2011.12.021] [Citation(s) in RCA: 48] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/18/2011] [Revised: 12/02/2011] [Accepted: 12/03/2011] [Indexed: 12/13/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND & AIMS Gastric variceal obturation (GVO) therapy is the current treatment of choice for gastric variceal bleeding (GVB). However, the efficacy of non-selective β-blockers (NSBB) in the secondary prevention of GVB is still debatable. This study aimed at evaluating the efficacy of additional NSBB to repeated GVO in the secondary prevention of GVB. METHODS From April 2007 to March 2011, 95 patients with GVB after primary hemostasis using GVO were enrolled. Repeated GVO were performed until GV eradication. Forty-eight and 47 patients were randomized into the GVO alone group (Group A) and the GVO+NSBB group (Group B), respectively. Primary outcomes in terms of re-bleeding and overall survival were analyzed by multivariate analysis. RESULTS After a mean follow-up of 18.10 months in group A, 26 patients bled and 20 died. In group B, 22 patients bled and 22 died after a mean follow-up of 20.29 months. The overall re-bleeding and survival rates analyzed by the Kaplan-Meier method were not different between the two groups (p=0.336 and 0.936, respectively). The model of end-stage liver disease (MELD) score and main portal vein thrombosis (MPT) were independent determinants of re-bleeding while MPT and re-bleeding were independent factors of mortality by time-dependent Cox-regression model. Asthenia was the most common adverse event and was higher in group B (p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS Adding NSBB therapy to repeated GVO provides no benefit for the secondary prevention of bleeding and mortality in patients with GVB.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hung-Hsu Hung
- Department of Medicine, School of Medicine, National Yang-Ming University, Taipei, Taiwan; Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, Taipei Veterans General Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan; Endoscopy Center for Diagnosis and Treatment, Taipei Veterans General Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Chen-Jung Chang
- Department of Medicine, School of Medicine, National Yang-Ming University, Taipei, Taiwan; Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, Taipei Veterans General Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan; Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Internal Medicine, Taipei Medical University Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Ming-Chih Hou
- Department of Medicine, School of Medicine, National Yang-Ming University, Taipei, Taiwan; Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, Taipei Veterans General Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan; Endoscopy Center for Diagnosis and Treatment, Taipei Veterans General Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan.
| | - Wei-Chih Liao
- Department of Medicine, School of Medicine, National Yang-Ming University, Taipei, Taiwan; Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, Taipei Veterans General Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan; Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, Taipei Municipal Gan-Dau Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Che-Chang Chan
- Department of Medicine, School of Medicine, National Yang-Ming University, Taipei, Taiwan; Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, Taipei Veterans General Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Hui-Chun Huang
- Department of Medicine, School of Medicine, National Yang-Ming University, Taipei, Taiwan; Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, Taipei Veterans General Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Han-Chieh Lin
- Department of Medicine, School of Medicine, National Yang-Ming University, Taipei, Taiwan; Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, Taipei Veterans General Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Fa-Yauh Lee
- Department of Medicine, School of Medicine, National Yang-Ming University, Taipei, Taiwan; Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, Taipei Veterans General Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Shou-Dong Lee
- Department of Medicine, School of Medicine, National Yang-Ming University, Taipei, Taiwan; Deparement of Medicine, School of Medicine, National Defense Medical Center, Taipei, Taiwan; Cheng Hsin General Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
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Hsu CY, Hsia CY, Huang YH, Su CW, Lin HC, Chiou YY, Lee RC, Lee FY, Huo TI, Lee SD. Differential prognostic impact of renal insufficiency on patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: a propensity score analysis and staging strategy. J Gastroenterol Hepatol 2012; 27:690-9. [PMID: 22436058 DOI: 10.1111/j.1440-1746.2011.06886.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/19/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIM Renal insufficiency (RI) can coexist in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study analyzed the prognostic impact of RI on patients with HCC and determined the optimal staging strategy for these patients. METHODS RI was defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min/1.73 m(2). A total of 502 and 1701 HCC patients with and without RI, respectively, were enrolled. One-to-one matched patient cohorts according to treatments were built by using the propensity model. The prognostic ability of the Cancer of the Liver Italian Program, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer, Japan Integrated Scoring, and Taipei Integrated Scoring (TIS) systems in HCC patients with RI was compared by using the Akaike information criterion (AIC). RESULTS For patients undergoing percutaneous ablation and transarterial chemoembolization (TACE), RI was significantly associated with decreased long-term survival (P = 0.001 and 0.004, respectively). In patients receiving resection and other treatments, there were no significant survival differences between patients with and without RI. With similar demographics generated in the propensity model, significantly decreased survival was found in patients with RI in the TACE group (P = 0.018), but not in the resection, percutaneous ablation, and other treatment groups. Among HCC patients with RI, the TIS system had the lowest AIC value. CONCLUSIONS RI is often present in patients with HCC and predicts a poor outcome in patients undergoing TACE. The survival of HCC patients receiving resection, percutaneous ablation, and other treatments is not affected by RI. The TIS staging system is a more feasible prognostic model for HCC patients with RI.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chia-Yang Hsu
- Faculty of Medicine, National Yang-Ming University School of Medicine, Taipei, Taiwan
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Improving survival in decompensated cirrhosis. Int J Hepatol 2012; 2012:318627. [PMID: 22811919 PMCID: PMC3395145 DOI: 10.1155/2012/318627] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/05/2012] [Revised: 04/30/2012] [Accepted: 05/03/2012] [Indexed: 12/11/2022] Open
Abstract
Mortality in cirrhosis is consequent of decompensation, only treatment being timely liver transplantation. Organ allocation is prioritized for the sickest patients based on Model for End Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score. In order to improve survival in patients with high MELD score it is imperative to preserve them in suitable condition till transplantation. Here we examine means to prolong life in high MELD score patients till a suitable liver is available. We specially emphasize protection of airways by avoidance of sedatives, avoidance of Bilevel Positive Airway Pressure, elective intubation in grade III or higher encephalopathy, maintaining a low threshold for intubation with lesser grades of encephalopathy when undergoing upper endoscopy or colonoscopy as pre transplant evaluation or transferring patient to a transplant center. Consider post-pyloric tube feeding in encephalopathy to maintain muscle mass and minimize risk of aspiration. In non intubated and well controlled encephalopathy, frequent physical mobility by active and passive exercises are recommended. When renal replacement therapy is needed, night-time Continuous Veno-Venous Hemodialysis may be useful in keeping the daytime free for mobility. Sparing and judicious use of steroids needs to be borne in mind in treatment of ARDS and acute hepatitis from alcohol or autoimmune process.
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Chen T, He Y, Liu X, Yan Z, Wang K, Liu H, Zhang S, Zhao Y. Nucleoside analogues improve the short-term and long-term prognosis of patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure. Clin Exp Med 2011; 12:159-64. [PMID: 22002708 DOI: 10.1007/s10238-011-0160-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 43] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/01/2011] [Accepted: 08/31/2011] [Indexed: 12/12/2022]
Abstract
Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is a major public health problem, and HBV-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) has an extremely poor prognosis. There is no standard approach for managing ACLF. Nucleos(t)ide analogue has been proven effective in suppressing viral replication, improving histology and biochemical, and decreasing the inflammatory response in patients with chronic hepatitis B. This study was designed to evaluate the short-term and long-term efficacy of nucleoside analogue treatment of patients with HBV-related ACLF. One hundred and six consecutive subjects were recruited from 2,308 patients with elevated alanine aminotransferase activity. Forty-two patients were treated with 0.5 mg entecavir (ETV) daily (ETV group); 30 patients received 100 mg lamivudine (LAM) daily (LAM group); 34 patients did not take any nucleos(t)ide analogues (non-NAs group). All eligible patients were given standard medical treatment. All the patients were followed up until death or until October 2010. The HBV DNA levels and the short-term and long-term efficacy of the drugs were evaluated. After 3 weeks of nucleoside analogue treatment and/or supportive therapy, HBV DNA levels were decreased when compared with the baseline level in the ETV group (7.04 ± 1.58 log(10) IU/mL vs. 4.03 ± 2.04 log(10) IU/mL, P = 0.001), the LAM group (7.25 ± 0.89 log(10) IU/mL vs. 4.33 ± 2.48 log(10) IU/mL, P = 0.01), and the non-NAs group (5.73 ± 0.96 log(10) IU/mL vs. 4.21 ± 1.47 log(10) IU/mL, P = 0.01). The ETV and LAM groups showed a similar accumulative mortality in the first 3 months of treatment (33.3% vs. 40%, χ(2) = 0.568, P = 0.374). The non-NAs group had a significantly high mortality, compared with the ETV group (64.7% vs. 33.3%, χ(2) = 7.163, P = 0.007), the LAM group (64.7% vs. 40%, χ(2) = 3.906, P = 0.042), and the nucleoside analogue group (ETV group + LAM group) (64.7% vs. 36.2%, χ(2) = 7.443, P = 0.006). All the 56 patients survived were followed up to October 2010. The median follow-up period was 7.3 months. Recurrence was observed in a total of 6 patients (10.72%), of whom 4 patients (33.33%) were from the non-NAs group, 2 (11.11%) from the LAM group after cessation LAM therapy by patients himself, and 0 from the ETV group (P = 0.003). Nucleoside analogue may improve the short-term and long-term prognosis of patients with HBV-related ACLF.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tianyan Chen
- Department of Infectious Diseases, First Affiliated Hospital of Medical College, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, Shaanxi Province, China
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Barber K, Madden S, Allen J, Collett D, Neuberger J, Gimson A. Elective liver transplant list mortality: development of a United Kingdom end-stage liver disease score. Transplantation 2011; 92:469-476. [PMID: 21775931 DOI: 10.1097/tp.0b013e318225db4d] [Citation(s) in RCA: 128] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/13/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Prediction of short-term survival probability is important in the selection and allocation of patients for liver transplantation, and the Mayo End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score has been used in these contexts. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a model for estimation of short-term prognosis of patients selected for elective liver transplantation in the United Kingdom. METHODS A modeling dataset was based on 1103 adult patients registered for a first elective liver transplant in the United Kingdom between April 1, 2003, and March 31, 2006, and a validation dataset based on 452 patients registered between April 1, 2006, and March 31, 2007. The final model (United Kingdom End-Stage Liver Disease) included international normalized ratio, serum creatinine, bilirubin, and sodium. RESULTS The model, based on the modeling dataset, accurately predicted mortality on the transplant list in the validation dataset and proved to be a better predictor than MELD or MELD-Na. The United Kingdom End-Stage Liver Disease score was not associated with overall posttransplant survival but was associated with both the duration of intensive care unit stay and overall initial hospital stay. CONCLUSION This model, developed specifically for patients awaiting liver transplantation, provides a useful tool for the selection of patients for liver transplantation and the allocation of donor livers.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kerri Barber
- NHS Blood and Transplant, Stoke Gifford, Bristol, United Kingdom.
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Al Sibae MR, Cappell MS. Accuracy of MELD scores in predicting mortality in decompensated cirrhosis from variceal bleeding, hepatorenal syndrome, alcoholic hepatitis, or acute liver failure as well as mortality after non-transplant surgery or TIPS. Dig Dis Sci 2011; 56:977-987. [PMID: 20844956 DOI: 10.1007/s10620-010-1390-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 52] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/02/2010] [Accepted: 08/05/2010] [Indexed: 12/16/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND To systematically review literature on use of model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score to determine severity and prognosis of liver disease in various clinical situations and to evaluate its use in decisions regarding therapeutic interventions. METHODS Computerized literature searches using key medical terms; review of authors' extensive files on this subject; and personal clinical experience. RESULTS The MELD score, a prospectively developed and validated scale for severity of end-stage liver disease, utilizes serum bilirubin, serum creatinine, and international normalized ratio to predict mortality in cirrhotic patients. It has proven clinically useful in increasingly varied clinical situations. The United Network for Organ Sharing uses MELD scores, with bonus points assigned for hepatocellular cancer, to prioritize allocation of deceased donor livers for liver transplantation. This work reviews recent data demonstrating that MELD scores relatively accurately predict mortality in patients with variceal bleeding, hepatorenal syndrome, alcoholic hepatitis, and acute liver failure, as well as assess risks of non-liver transplantation surgery or transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunts in cirrhotic patients. MELD scores fail to predict mortality in about 15% of patients with end-stage liver disease. Incorporation of additional parameters, including serum sodium level, serum albumin level, glucose intolerance, or APACHE II score, may potentially improve prognostic accuracy. CONCLUSIONS MELD scores relatively accurately assess severity of liver disease and prognosis in patients with advanced liver disease in general, and in patients with individual complications of liver disease. It is useful in making decisions on potential therapies. Incorporating additional parameters may further improve its prognostic accuracy.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mohamad R Al Sibae
- Division of Transplantation, Department of Surgery, William Beaumont Hospital, Royal Oak, MI 48073, USA
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Chen XB, Zhu X, Tang H. Value of KCH criteria, MELD score and MELDNa score for prediction of prognosis of acute liver failure. Shijie Huaren Xiaohua Zazhi 2011; 19:855-859. [DOI: 10.11569/wcjd.v19.i8.855] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Abstract
AIM: To investigate the value of King's College Hospital (KCH) criteria, Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) score and MELD with incorporation of serum sodium (MELDNa) score for evaluation of prognosis of acute liver failure.
METHODS: A total of 37 consecutive patients with acute liver failure (ALF) were included in the study and divided into two groups according to the prognosis. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) of MELD, MELDNa and KCH criteria were used to assess the prognosis of patients with ALF.
RESULTS: The mortality of ALF was 70.3% in this study. MELD and MELDNa scores were significantly higher in the death group than in the survival group (43.8 ± 11.0 vs 31.0 ± 5.4, 43.4 ± 9.9 vs 32.1 ± 5.0, both P < 0.05). AUC-ROC of MELD score, MELDNa score and KCH criteria was 0.858 (0.704-0.950), 0.867 (0.715-0.955), and 0.645 (0.471-0.795), respectively. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and positive likelihood ratio (+LR) of MELD score were the same as those of MELDNa score but higher than those of KCH criteria (84.6 vs 65.4, 81.8 vs 63.6, 91.7 vs 81.0, 69.2 vs 43.7, 4.65 vs 1.80).
CONCLUSION: MELD, MELDNa scores and KCH criteria have appreciable value to evaluate the prognosis of ALF patients. MELD and MELDNa scores are more accurate than KCH criteria in assessing prognosis of ALF patients.
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